美股大跌，怎么回事？【2026-06-23】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年6月23号

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看起来是一个黑色星期二

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跌幅1.44%

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有一个向下跳空缺口

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空头突然发力

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昨天的点评中

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我感觉标普指数偏离年限有2000多点

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乖离率高于均值

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有均值回归的可能

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结果调整马上就到了

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目前指数在高位强势震荡

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并没有显著的暴跌趋势

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这可能只是一个阶段性的调整而已

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只要不出现系统性风险

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也不出现连续长阴线调整就只是时间问题

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如果连续出现大阴线

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却找不到太多做空的理由

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那市场一定是在酝酿什么重大的利空

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跌幅2.2%

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一跳空下跌后一度反弹

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日内反弹无果收盘还是以大跌报收

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空方信号

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首先要看跳空缺口

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出现一个向下的跳空缺口

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是下跌开始的信号

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但不保证下跌

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跳空的原因是隔夜有大的利空

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股市一开盘直接低开定价

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全天还不补缺口

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所以在日线图上留下跳空缺口

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这说明这一天下来多头根本打不过空投

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多方之前的士气大幅下降

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空头占了优势

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但只要不连续大跌调整就只是技术性需要

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不必然导致股市见顶

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伊朗战争消息面缓和

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但是对股市利好有限

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美国宣布一项禁令豁免

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将允许伊朗在60天的时间内销售原油

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以及石化产品

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这是数10年以来对伊朗制裁的豁免

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开了这个先河之后

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伊朗有望通过石油出口获得可观的经济利益

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华盛顿智库称

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60天的豁免

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足以使伊朗释放

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滞留在海湾的6700万桶原油

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给伊朗带来几10亿美元的收入

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国际海事组织表示

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在美伊两国协议支持下

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霍尔木兹海峡滞留一点

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1万名船员

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有望开始撤离

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实时船舶追踪

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数据显示

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在过去几天

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海峡的船舶通航数量增加两倍

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霍尔木兹海峡实时监控数据读数显示

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目前通航数量为战前的20%

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邮轮在缓慢疏散

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这就足以打压油价

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布伦特原油的多重顶

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完美体现了油价的头部形态

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今天截图已经跌到了77块一毛三

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未来不排除跌到70

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回到战争开始前的油价水平

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油价下跌缓和了通胀压力

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但是这都算是比较间接的

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毕竟打的时候股市总体上涨

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不打了也没有什么可反弹的了

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股市在4月份对战争的消息脱敏之后

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坏消息和好消息一样都不敏感了

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但是今天股市面临更多的利空因素袭击

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盘面的主要表现是硬件重创

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那么硬件是上半年最具有赚钱效应的板块

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出现了许多大幅上涨的牛股

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结果今天半导体

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半导体设备与材料

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计算机硬件等板块都是大跌

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汽车制造也大跌

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主要是因为特斯拉也跌了不少

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除了硬件之外

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还是有不少行业是上涨的

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比如电力电信航天医疗设备等啊

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都是绿盘

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连软件也小幅反弹

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硬件重大回调的情况下

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软件这回终于不跟着一起殉葬了

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股市大跌的原因是什么呢

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既然硬件暴跌带崩了大盘

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那当然要从硬件大跌的原因去找了

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直接原因是隔夜韩国

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日本等股市崩盘

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韩国股市有两只权重股非常厉害

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分别是三星电子和SK海力士

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两只股在韩国股市权重极高

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又正好是半导体和存储的核心风口

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龙头公司存储今年暴涨

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韩国股市COSPI指数也就涨势火爆

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韩国人上了杠杆买股票

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赌性很重啊

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杠杆炒股来钱快

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大跌的时候就面临补保证金的压力

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如果补不上保证金

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股票就会强制卖出

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从而导致更多的下跌

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形成多杀多的猛烈下跌

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投资就是慢慢来

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急功近利的上涨必然伴随猛烈的下跌

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隔夜韩国综合指数暴跌10%

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跌到熔断

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这放在任何一个市场都是股灾

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但韩国今年常常是上涨也熔断

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下跌也熔断

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指数的弹性十足

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占韩国市值一半的两只股

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海力士和三星电子均暴跌12%

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为什么韩国两大科技股突然大跌呢

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有报道称

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SK海力士要放缓人工智能存储芯片的生产扩张

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转而专注于传统的DERRN产品

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这啥意思呢

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市场炒存储主要是炒AI内存供不应求的故事

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但厂商怎么不扩张AI芯片

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反而回归传统的内存呢

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这让市场怀疑AI芯片的供不应求的逻辑

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是不是有问题

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也是促成股市熔断的原因

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监管部门警告散户

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不要在韩国综合指数上使用杠杆

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融资成本已经创历史新高

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这说明都在借钱炒股

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历史不断在重演

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那就是当普通民众大举借钱炒股时

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股灾就很近了

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股市不凭空创造财富

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除了公司分红和回购以外

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人人杠杆炒股发财了

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那谁买单呢

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这是个问题

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过去在股灾发生之前

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有擦皮鞋的也炒股

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基金经理擦完皮鞋立即清仓股票

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避开了股灾的传说

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现在是

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韩国

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18岁以下未成年人新开户数量同比增长十倍

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老年人提前取消保险

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把养老的钱投入股市

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韩国三大寿险公司在一季度被客户退保了

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4.9万亿韩元

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同比增长16.3%

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韩国的老人小孩都进股市炒股了

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这可以说是一个风险信号

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韩国股市的两只股

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与美股半导体板块有关联效应

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因此带崩了美股硬件板块

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不同市场的影响会不会有持续性

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韩国会不会跌

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熔断之后变成涨熔断啊

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这两个问题影响我们对美股后市的判断

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那么对于新兴经济体的市场来讲

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投机肯定是更投机的

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暴跌之后仍有可能继续上涨

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但如果连续暴跌

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杠杆就会爆仓

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跌起来就会是自由落体运动

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美股如果崩了

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韩国股市会跟跌

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韩国如果崩了

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美股未必会跟的紧

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我认为

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美股的杠杆和投机的疯狂程度没有韩国的高

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另一个被认为美股下跌的主要原因是

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加息预期升温

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沃实上周讲话后

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市场开始预测加息

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并对加息进行定价

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卧室看不上的点阵图

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他连点都不去点

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外界实在搞不懂他到底是什么意思

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卧室坚持通胀要达到2%

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这虽然说是老一套了

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陈词滥调

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让人觉得他就是要加息之后

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华尔街主要机构上调今年的利率预期

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美国银行预计今年将加息三次

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9月份以后的三次议息会议各加息一次

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德意志银行预测今年将加息两次

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这和美联储点阵图上面的信息相比

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市场的加息预期比官员的来得更强烈

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金融机构的预测会影响他们的投资决策

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如果银行觉得要加息好几次

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那牛市的好景就不长了

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在2022年加息预期发酵的上半年

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股市逐渐进入熊市

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加息是美股最难处理的利空

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会持续对股市产生压力

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在加息周期开始前的股市调整

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可能并不是简单的一个V型反转了

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而是反复震荡下跌的模式

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SPACEX上市后热闹三天

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再跌三天

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但还没有跌破发行价135

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今天的换手率是27.81%

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成交还是非常活跃

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排美股前五名

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成交活跃的个股

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有资金关注

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流通盘暂时也不是很大

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突然反弹一波的机会还是存在的

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长期来看

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因为限售股解禁可能会寻找更低的底部

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比如跌破发行价之类的

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但好像空投还没有胆量做空市场

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数据显示

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SPCX的空头头寸是4000万股

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占流通股的5%到7%

223
00:09:27,700 --> 00:09:31,039
麦昆融券的参考利率是7%左右

224
00:09:31,039 --> 00:09:34,629
麦昆马斯克的公司有被消息拉爆的风险

225
00:09:34,629 --> 00:09:37,190
以前特斯拉就发生过这样的事情了

226
00:09:37,190 --> 00:09:38,929
马斯克发一条消息

227
00:09:38,929 --> 00:09:40,450
空头就爆仓了

228
00:09:40,450 --> 00:09:43,230
嘿说到特斯拉看起来是车

229
00:09:43,230 --> 00:09:44,309
不是硬件

230
00:09:44,309 --> 00:09:46,450
但是今天跟硬件一样

231
00:09:46,450 --> 00:09:48,299
跌得扎扎实实的

232
00:09:50,379 --> 00:09:50,759
九

233
00:09:50,759 --> 00:09:53,539
汽车铁皮做的上涨的时候

234
00:09:53,539 --> 00:09:54,860
它不是硬件

235
00:09:54,860 --> 00:09:57,429
下跌的时候就是硬件了

236
00:09:57,429 --> 00:10:00,970
德州有一辆特斯拉model three冲出车道

237
00:10:00,970 --> 00:10:02,720
撞进了一栋房子里

238
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,159
把一个76岁的老人撞死了

239
00:10:05,159 --> 00:10:08,059
被美国交通局启动了特别调查

240
00:10:08,059 --> 00:10:11,259
引发了FSD安全的相关争议

241
00:10:11,259 --> 00:10:15,710
嗯但仅仅这样的消息应该不是股价大跌的理由

242
00:10:16,029 --> 00:10:19,769
SPACEX缺钱可能是特斯拉下跌的原因

243
00:10:19,769 --> 00:10:22,129
SPCX上市三天

244
00:10:22,129 --> 00:10:25,049
就启动了200亿美元的债券融资

245
00:10:25,049 --> 00:10:28,860
对资金的饥渴程度让市场感到震惊

246
00:10:28,860 --> 00:10:29,580
哎

247
00:10:29,580 --> 00:10:32,059
两家公司同属马斯克体系

248
00:10:32,059 --> 00:10:34,700
两家兄弟公司一个缺钱

249
00:10:34,700 --> 00:10:37,080
另一个估计也好不到哪儿去了

250
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:38,940
有钱不一定能共享啊

251
00:10:38,940 --> 00:10:41,099
没钱却必然会传染

252
00:10:41,099 --> 00:10:42,918
受特斯拉大跌影响

253
00:10:45,778 --> 00:10:48,279
截图19.8万不止

254
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:49,480
特斯拉亏损了

255
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:50,179
高通

256
00:10:50,179 --> 00:10:52,799
英伟达等半导体个股也亏了

257
00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:54,269
微软反弹

258
00:10:54,269 --> 00:10:56,350
但之前微软跌的多

259
00:10:56,350 --> 00:10:59,289
反弹完了也还是有气无力的

260
00:10:59,289 --> 00:11:01,250
特斯拉现在卖出吧

261
00:11:01,250 --> 00:11:02,610
有点可惜

262
00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:04,009
不卖出吧

263
00:11:04,009 --> 00:11:06,019
感觉没有什么意思

264
00:11:06,019 --> 00:11:09,440
昨天川普签署了量子计算行政命令

265
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:10,840
要求加快建设

266
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,879
用于科学研究的高性能量子计算机

267
00:11:13,879 --> 00:11:15,159
提升政策系统

268
00:11:15,159 --> 00:11:17,899
应对相关网络安全威胁的能力

269
00:11:17,899 --> 00:11:19,539
在这个场合

270
00:11:19,539 --> 00:11:22,220
川普特别称赞了IBM

271
00:11:22,220 --> 00:11:24,559
IBM今天逆势上涨

272
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,559
这是一家有量子计算概念

273
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,620
同时自己的基本面还不错的公司

274
00:11:29,620 --> 00:11:35,200
昨天有观众要求讲一下circle cr c l7夕法案

275
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,960
目前正在参议院最后审议的窗口期

276
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,159
到8月份议会要休会

277
00:11:40,159 --> 00:11:41,179
到年底

278
00:11:41,179 --> 00:11:43,720
可能共和党都不一定能在中期选举中

279
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,328
保持多数席位

280
00:11:45,328 --> 00:11:47,428
在这样的时间压力下

281
00:11:47,428 --> 00:11:51,190
清晰法案最后冲刺能不能过很重要

282
00:11:51,190 --> 00:11:53,509
如果议会休会前过不了

283
00:11:53,509 --> 00:11:56,190
这法案可能要拖得很久了

284
00:11:56,190 --> 00:11:59,070
目前参议院要拿下60票通过

285
00:11:59,070 --> 00:12:00,590
可能还差七票

286
00:12:00,590 --> 00:12:04,860
要从民主党人手上争取七夕法案能过

287
00:12:04,860 --> 00:12:06,419
对稳定币是利好

288
00:12:06,419 --> 00:12:08,120
但是到了8月

289
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,539
circle和coin base要谈新的分成方案

290
00:12:11,539 --> 00:12:14,899
我感觉circle的谈判地位还是比较低的

291
00:12:14,899 --> 00:12:17,529
估计也谈不出更好的分成方案

292
00:12:17,529 --> 00:12:19,289
股价走势疲弱

293
00:12:19,289 --> 00:12:20,649
磨破支撑位

294
00:12:20,649 --> 00:12:23,309
有向下到六十四一线的概率

295
00:12:23,309 --> 00:12:28,899
另外一名观众希望点评直觉外科ISRG观众说

296
00:12:28,899 --> 00:12:32,919
最近关注的股票ISRG掉到400美金

297
00:12:32,919 --> 00:12:35,759
不知道市场为什么一直打压它的股价

298
00:12:35,759 --> 00:12:37,899
阳光财经能分析一下吗

299
00:12:37,899 --> 00:12:42,318
400这个价位加仓是否合理啊

300
00:12:42,318 --> 00:12:46,669
ISRG主要是手术机器人公司不错

301
00:12:46,669 --> 00:12:48,389
但估值较高

302
00:12:48,389 --> 00:12:50,429
你看PEE有50倍左右

303
00:12:50,429 --> 00:12:52,190
股价可能比较贵

304
00:12:52,190 --> 00:12:54,509
前期上涨积累太多涨幅

305
00:12:54,509 --> 00:12:57,429
目前是对长期牛市的修正

306
00:12:57,429 --> 00:12:59,789
基本面利好刺激有限

307
00:12:59,789 --> 00:13:03,110
手术总量增长也没有什么特别的加速

308
00:13:03,110 --> 00:13:06,139
消息面扭转股价的动力也不足

309
00:13:06,139 --> 00:13:09,480
400的价位属于估值中等偏高

310
00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,240
技术面阴跌状态

311
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,600
不随意去预测底部价位

312
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,620
但是如果对手术机器人有信心

313
00:13:16,620 --> 00:13:18,429
可以逐渐慢慢加

314
00:13:18,429 --> 00:13:21,389
毕竟达芬奇手术机器人的市场占有率

315
00:13:21,389 --> 00:13:22,830
有80%以上

316
00:13:22,830 --> 00:13:24,289
还是非常优秀

317
00:13:24,289 --> 00:13:27,039
有一定的护城河的好

318
00:13:27,039 --> 00:13:28,860
那今天的节目我们就分享到这里

319
00:13:28,860 --> 00:13:29,620
感谢大家收看

320
00:13:29,620 --> 00:13:31,080
我们下期节目再见

321
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:31,799
拜拜

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