BV1Vgd2BtEx1 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,480 大家好 2 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:01,500 欢迎回到视野 3 00:00:01,500 --> 00:00:02,480 环球财经 4 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:03,379 我是RINO 5 00:00:03,379 --> 00:00:05,820 现在是美东时间26年4月20号 6 00:00:05,820 --> 00:00:08,939 周一晚上的08:25分呃 7 00:00:08,939 --> 00:00:09,480 周末啊 8 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,740 美伊双方是紧张局势加剧 9 00:00:11,740 --> 00:00:15,050 伊朗呢是重新宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡 10 00:00:15,050 --> 00:00:16,010 与此同时 11 00:00:16,010 --> 00:00:18,149 美国在周日的时候攻击 12 00:00:18,149 --> 00:00:21,118 并且扣押了一艘伊朗货船 13 00:00:21,118 --> 00:00:24,178 整个的局势呢今天是再次反转啊 14 00:00:24,178 --> 00:00:29,230 让半条腿踏入鬼门关的油价反弹回到阳间 15 00:00:29,230 --> 00:00:32,509 美国股市呢今天也是小幅承压 16 00:00:32,509 --> 00:00:35,909 但是总体的成交量不是很大啊 17 00:00:35,909 --> 00:00:38,560 所以这个呢也没什么看头呃 18 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,079 今天市场的焦点呢 19 00:00:40,079 --> 00:00:43,250 依旧是集中在每一会谈的前景上 20 00:00:43,250 --> 00:00:46,969 关于会谈的时间和参与的情况啊 21 00:00:46,969 --> 00:00:49,369 各方报道是各说各话 22 00:00:49,369 --> 00:00:50,509 美国媒体说呢 23 00:00:50,509 --> 00:00:52,210 副总统万斯啊 24 00:00:52,210 --> 00:00:57,149 最早可能会在周二或周三与伊朗代表团会面啊 25 00:00:57,149 --> 00:00:58,590 但是伊朗方面说啊 26 00:00:58,590 --> 00:01:00,630 呃没有做出任何的决定啊 27 00:01:00,630 --> 00:01:04,930 甚至有媒体说伊朗不会参加此次会谈 28 00:01:04,930 --> 00:01:06,930 另外呢总统川普也暗示说 29 00:01:06,930 --> 00:01:09,049 如果没有达成协议 30 00:01:09,049 --> 00:01:12,359 他不太可能延长或停火 31 00:01:12,359 --> 00:01:13,739 解除美国封锁 32 00:01:13,739 --> 00:01:18,709 而伊朗则坚持要求在恢复谈判前你就解除封锁 33 00:01:18,709 --> 00:01:20,849 所以呢过了一个周末 34 00:01:20,849 --> 00:01:25,780 似乎啊双方是又回到了在缓和前的原点啊 35 00:01:25,780 --> 00:01:26,819 上个星期五呢 36 00:01:26,819 --> 00:01:30,799 市场受到霍尔木兹海峡重新开放消息的影响啊 37 00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:33,799 是大幅提振了情绪呃 38 00:01:33,799 --> 00:01:35,920 标普呢是涨了一个多点对吧 39 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,650 各个指数呢也是大幅上涨呃 40 00:01:38,650 --> 00:01:41,090 这个解除封锁呢就一天时间啊 41 00:01:41,090 --> 00:01:43,989 其实实质上呃并没有发生任何的事情啊 42 00:01:43,989 --> 00:01:45,870 我们看到在上个星期五 43 00:01:45,870 --> 00:01:49,109 其实只是有大量的这个货轮 44 00:01:49,109 --> 00:01:52,230 他们涌向霍尔木兹海峡等待通行啊 45 00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:54,579 今天呢大家又准备掉头回去了 46 00:01:54,579 --> 00:01:57,359 还得接着回海湾钓鱼啊 47 00:01:57,359 --> 00:02:00,359 好呃这个呢就是目前的一个大致状况 48 00:02:00,359 --> 00:02:03,870 说实话市场从今天的成交状况看 49 00:02:03,870 --> 00:02:05,390 萎缩的非常厉害 50 00:02:05,390 --> 00:02:06,950 呃说明一件事啊 51 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:07,670 什么事呢 52 00:02:07,670 --> 00:02:09,830 就是大家都在等啊 53 00:02:09,830 --> 00:02:13,509 就没有人在今天呢去非常着急的下注 54 00:02:13,509 --> 00:02:14,490 等什么呢 55 00:02:14,490 --> 00:02:18,750 等周三的这个最后截止日期的到来啊 56 00:02:18,750 --> 00:02:22,849 到底是继续延长还是开干啊 57 00:02:22,849 --> 00:02:23,930 如果开干呢 58 00:02:23,930 --> 00:02:26,270 那这个市场呢原地掉头向下 59 00:02:26,270 --> 00:02:28,050 这是极大概率的事件 60 00:02:28,050 --> 00:02:29,449 如果延长呢 61 00:02:29,449 --> 00:02:33,469 市场呢那可能还有一些诶这种推动力 62 00:02:33,469 --> 00:02:35,199 往上去推一点点 63 00:02:35,199 --> 00:02:38,960 但是不一定是所有的板块都能推啊 64 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,479 因为现在其实截止到今天为止 65 00:02:41,479 --> 00:02:44,159 在过去的一两个星期推动行情的 66 00:02:44,159 --> 00:02:46,740 其中有一部分的因素咱们也讲过啊 67 00:02:46,740 --> 00:02:49,740 呃从CCTA开始推动到乐观情绪 68 00:02:49,740 --> 00:02:52,960 上升到对冲基金购买到散户追涨啊 69 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:54,189 到今天啊 70 00:02:54,189 --> 00:02:55,889 我看到了更多的证据 71 00:02:55,889 --> 00:02:58,449 来自于之前的行情的一些推动 72 00:02:58,449 --> 00:03:01,599 就是空头的回补导致的 73 00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:04,680 其实目前的整个的仓位呀 74 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,729 呃大的变化并不大啊 75 00:03:07,729 --> 00:03:09,150 我们来看一下流动性吧 76 00:03:09,150 --> 00:03:11,750 这样大家可能比较好的去理解 77 00:03:11,750 --> 00:03:13,210 市场正在发生什么 78 00:03:13,210 --> 00:03:16,069 以及后面还会发生什么 79 00:03:16,270 --> 00:03:19,949 呃从流动性来观察呢 80 00:03:19,949 --> 00:03:24,319 根据高盛的这个团队的数据啊 81 00:03:24,319 --> 00:03:29,520 呃目前的对冲基金呢是最终是一个净买入啊 82 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:34,699 最主要是受到了这个宏观空头的回补 83 00:03:35,278 --> 00:03:36,959 给大家看一下啊 84 00:03:36,959 --> 00:03:38,439 这个图表啊 85 00:03:38,439 --> 00:03:41,620 呃最主要的是受到宏观空头的回补啊 86 00:03:41,620 --> 00:03:45,199 几乎呢全部都是ETF的之前的空头 87 00:03:45,199 --> 00:03:47,270 然后呢相当于回补平仓了 88 00:03:47,270 --> 00:03:50,909 还有呢就是确实有部分买入做多 89 00:03:50,909 --> 00:03:53,719 就是科技股大科技啊 90 00:03:53,719 --> 00:03:57,300 就是有一些风险驱动因素再次投资大科技 91 00:03:57,300 --> 00:04:00,969 目前啊整个的对冲基金从回呃 92 00:04:00,969 --> 00:04:06,009 从这个回补的宏观空头逐步的转向买入个股 93 00:04:06,009 --> 00:04:09,449 做多市场呢正在压什么呢 94 00:04:09,449 --> 00:04:12,009 仍在相信人工智能领域 95 00:04:12,009 --> 00:04:14,389 还有进一步的上涨空间啊 96 00:04:14,389 --> 00:04:16,709 买的人工智能领域的是什么东西 97 00:04:16,709 --> 00:04:21,120 大部分集中在硬件的供应商板块 98 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,060 另外呢大家比较关注的软件 99 00:04:24,060 --> 00:04:27,040 这是肯定出现了大量的空头回补 100 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,889 还有部分的多头的这个直接的看好的买入 101 00:04:30,908 --> 00:04:33,468 那么高盛监测的纯多头交易完 102 00:04:33,468 --> 00:04:35,449 继续保持被动买入呃 103 00:04:35,449 --> 00:04:38,220 集中在刚才讲的超级大型科技股 104 00:04:38,220 --> 00:04:42,480 通过这张图表上你能看到做空最多的股票 105 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:46,069 其实最近的表现是非常非常好的 106 00:04:46,069 --> 00:04:47,769 这个回补走势呢 107 00:04:47,769 --> 00:04:50,069 从我们看这种滚动的 108 00:04:50,069 --> 00:04:52,569 这个回补的这个计价的指数来看 109 00:04:52,569 --> 00:04:54,870 已经是来到了阶段的高点 110 00:04:54,870 --> 00:04:56,470 那么这个高点的意思呢 111 00:04:56,470 --> 00:04:59,670 不是说后面一定就不再回补了啊 112 00:04:59,670 --> 00:05:02,170 但是代表着从仓位上啊 113 00:05:02,170 --> 00:05:04,800 以及从这些最被做空的股票 114 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,870 他们的位置上要比之前都平衡得多 115 00:05:09,269 --> 00:05:13,269 那么现在市场是一个什么样的杠杆率呢 116 00:05:14,699 --> 00:05:19,459 整体的账面的总杠杆率是310%啊 117 00:05:19,459 --> 00:05:22,189 这里指的是这个基本面的 118 00:05:22,189 --> 00:05:23,870 这个多空的对冲基金啊 119 00:05:23,870 --> 00:05:27,720 一年期是第九十二百%分位 120 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,259 5年期是九十八百分位 121 00:05:30,259 --> 00:05:31,720 都是相对较高的对吧 122 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:33,430 总的杠杆率加的比较高 123 00:05:33,430 --> 00:05:36,589 但是呢净杠杆率就是多空 124 00:05:36,589 --> 00:05:39,509 净杠杆率只有75% 125 00:05:39,509 --> 00:05:42,170 这是一年期的第二十一百分位 126 00:05:42,170 --> 00:05:44,980 5年期的第五十一百分位 127 00:05:44,980 --> 00:05:48,370 目前的对冲基金正处于一个转型期 128 00:05:48,370 --> 00:05:52,550 他们正在大量的平仓之前的空头头寸 129 00:05:52,550 --> 00:05:54,668 并且转向做多个股 130 00:05:54,668 --> 00:05:57,468 主要做多的就是在全球的通信啊 131 00:05:57,468 --> 00:05:58,348 通信服务啊 132 00:05:58,348 --> 00:06:00,389 科技行业呃 133 00:06:00,389 --> 00:06:04,389 不过呢从仅从技术面的角度来看啊 134 00:06:04,389 --> 00:06:05,908 资金流向的角度看 135 00:06:05,908 --> 00:06:07,588 空头的回补 136 00:06:07,588 --> 00:06:13,079 仍旧是后面有可能会继续推动上涨的潜在因素 137 00:06:13,079 --> 00:06:14,759 直到什么情况呢 138 00:06:14,759 --> 00:06:17,680 直到净杠杆率走高啊 139 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,379 现在不是说净杆杠杆率才只有75%吗 140 00:06:20,379 --> 00:06:20,860 对吧 141 00:06:20,860 --> 00:06:23,870 一年期大概在21%的百分位吗 142 00:06:23,870 --> 00:06:27,730 它通常来讲一年期回到五十百分位 143 00:06:27,730 --> 00:06:29,860 那么就代表着仓位比较平衡 144 00:06:29,860 --> 00:06:32,220 他也完全没有回补的必料啊 145 00:06:32,220 --> 00:06:34,180 因为现在的这个杠杆率还偏低嘛 146 00:06:34,180 --> 00:06:38,089 净多头杠杆率说明空头仓位还有还有被噶空 147 00:06:38,089 --> 00:06:40,910 被这个接受去回补的可能性啊 148 00:06:40,910 --> 00:06:43,350 所以我们是说目前的回补呢是一个高点 149 00:06:43,350 --> 00:06:46,029 但是不一定就后面就没有了 150 00:06:46,029 --> 00:06:47,610 好这是我们说第一个 151 00:06:47,610 --> 00:06:49,709 还有一个呢我们等会会讲到啊 152 00:06:49,709 --> 00:06:51,850 特别是要注意的是IGV啊 153 00:06:51,850 --> 00:06:54,110 包括由IGV带动的 154 00:06:54,110 --> 00:06:57,870 像半导体其他板块的情况 155 00:06:57,870 --> 00:06:58,910 我等会给大家讲一讲啊 156 00:06:58,910 --> 00:07:00,670 包括SMHSOXX 157 00:07:00,670 --> 00:07:01,990 还有IGV在哪里 158 00:07:01,990 --> 00:07:05,189 可能会有潜在的更大的噶空的出现 159 00:07:05,189 --> 00:07:07,550 好我们在看这个之前 160 00:07:07,550 --> 00:07:12,250 首先来关注一下最近的标普的涨势情况 161 00:07:12,250 --> 00:07:14,139 广度如何啊 162 00:07:14,500 --> 00:07:17,220 其实你可以看一下标普500指数啊 163 00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:18,920 已经是之前的7000高点 164 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,139 超了差不多100点左右 165 00:07:21,139 --> 00:07:24,610 那我们来看一下平权指数啊 166 00:07:24,610 --> 00:07:28,209 就是我们说如果把市场大家加权平均都一样啊 167 00:07:28,209 --> 00:07:31,209 不按照指数平均去算那个那个权重去算 168 00:07:31,209 --> 00:07:34,949 你发现它仅仅是刚刚回到之前的高点 169 00:07:34,949 --> 00:07:39,720 说明一定是权重带动的涨幅更大 170 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,279 其实从数据统计上呢也非常能够呃 171 00:07:43,279 --> 00:07:45,879 这个去非常明确的去解释了这一点啊 172 00:07:45,879 --> 00:07:47,720 我们看一下情况 173 00:07:49,079 --> 00:07:52,040 目前的市场广度还是比较差的 174 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,120 尽管标普500指数已经从3月30号的低点 175 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,569 反弹了12% 176 00:07:57,569 --> 00:08:01,730 但这一次反弹的板块构成依旧非常的窄 177 00:08:01,730 --> 00:08:03,149 那么市场的广度呢 178 00:08:03,149 --> 00:08:07,579 已经降到了2023年年中以来的最低水平 179 00:08:07,579 --> 00:08:08,899 事实事实上呢 180 00:08:08,899 --> 00:08:10,649 从这个板块层面上看 181 00:08:10,649 --> 00:08:11,649 标普500 182 00:08:11,649 --> 00:08:13,490 信息技术和通信板块 183 00:08:13,490 --> 00:08:16,339 贡献了差不多70%的市场反弹 184 00:08:16,339 --> 00:08:19,019 占到了标普500指数12% 185 00:08:19,019 --> 00:08:21,319 涨幅的856个基点 186 00:08:21,319 --> 00:08:23,399 那么截止到上个星期五 187 00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:27,000 标普500成份股中只有1/4 188 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,720 也就是只有126只股票的股价 189 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,038 接近52周高点5%以内 190 00:08:34,038 --> 00:08:37,899 大量的股票300多只都没到呢 191 00:08:37,899 --> 00:08:41,298 还远远的落后他们之前的这个高点价位 192 00:08:41,298 --> 00:08:45,859 所以这一轮也仅仅是一些强势板块 193 00:08:45,859 --> 00:08:48,119 他们在带动市场的上行啊 194 00:08:48,119 --> 00:08:49,099 代表市场什么呢 195 00:08:49,099 --> 00:08:50,620 咱们之前讲过一个观点 196 00:08:50,620 --> 00:08:52,039 在做短 197 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:53,820 这是一轮短啊 198 00:08:53,820 --> 00:08:56,879 这轮短它把指数推到了前高 199 00:08:56,879 --> 00:08:58,220 创下新高 200 00:08:58,220 --> 00:09:03,059 并不耽误后面如果形势恶化再跌回来啊 201 00:09:03,059 --> 00:09:05,379 这个这个逻辑短线和中长期逻辑啊 202 00:09:05,379 --> 00:09:07,279 大家呃记得就行 203 00:09:07,279 --> 00:09:08,539 不然的话回头跌下来 204 00:09:08,539 --> 00:09:09,659 你又不知道为什么跌对吧 205 00:09:09,659 --> 00:09:11,259 涨也不知道为什么涨上去的啊 206 00:09:11,259 --> 00:09:11,820 好 207 00:09:11,820 --> 00:09:13,940 这个呢是我们说现在目前市场的一个 208 00:09:13,940 --> 00:09:15,889 资金的大致流向好 209 00:09:15,889 --> 00:09:16,649 那么市场上 210 00:09:16,649 --> 00:09:18,809 其实今天比较能值得关注的一个 211 00:09:18,809 --> 00:09:20,049 就是软件板块啊 212 00:09:20,049 --> 00:09:22,250 和大家详细的讲讲 213 00:09:23,298 --> 00:09:25,859 其实从软件板块的这一轮呢 214 00:09:25,859 --> 00:09:27,938 呃走的还是不错的啊 215 00:09:27,938 --> 00:09:31,019 估计有很多朋友现在在大幅上涨之后呢 216 00:09:31,019 --> 00:09:31,919 肯定会想 217 00:09:31,919 --> 00:09:34,279 那是不是软件又要买回来了啊 218 00:09:34,279 --> 00:09:35,960 软件是不是又要看前高了 219 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:37,960 因为最近有很多朋友问我这个问题啊 220 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,600 所以我今天正好因为位置比较近了 221 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:41,879 跟大家讲一下 222 00:09:41,879 --> 00:09:43,080 大家可以看一看 223 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,668 现在我们在呃当前的日线级别上 224 00:09:46,668 --> 00:09:48,708 其实有两个底部对吧 225 00:09:48,708 --> 00:09:50,169 两条腿在下方 226 00:09:50,169 --> 00:09:53,009 一个是呢是在76.2 227 00:09:53,009 --> 00:09:55,250 一个是在73.9左右 228 00:09:55,250 --> 00:09:59,600 那么上方呢有一个上次回补之后的高点 229 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,000 大概就是在最高的88.5左右啊 230 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,919 这个地方大家可以看一下上次的高点 231 00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:06,940 88.58好 232 00:10:06,940 --> 00:10:08,879 现在呢其实从技术面上看啊 233 00:10:08,879 --> 00:10:10,059 这个IGV呢 234 00:10:10,059 --> 00:10:15,450 如果能更进一步回到88块六的上方啊 235 00:10:15,450 --> 00:10:17,409 这个地方我往下降了一点 236 00:10:17,409 --> 00:10:20,649 主要是因为上一次这个地方有过交易测试 237 00:10:20,649 --> 00:10:23,210 所以呢我把这个上次突破这个高点 238 00:10:23,210 --> 00:10:24,649 88块五作为一个突破 239 00:10:24,649 --> 00:10:27,049 看点放到了88块六 240 00:10:27,049 --> 00:10:28,929 那么这个突破之后呃 241 00:10:28,929 --> 00:10:34,210 我个人预计呢他后面会有更大的回补和追涨 242 00:10:34,210 --> 00:10:35,539 会出现 243 00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:36,799 为什么呢 244 00:10:36,799 --> 00:10:38,559 因为在这种结构之下 245 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:43,450 说实话他也即将就要突破下行趋势的压制 246 00:10:43,610 --> 00:10:45,330 下行突破趋势的压制 247 00:10:45,330 --> 00:10:46,970 这种情况一旦出现之后呢 248 00:10:46,970 --> 00:10:48,549 其实从机构的角度来讲 249 00:10:48,549 --> 00:10:51,149 他没有必要再去逆势做空 250 00:10:51,149 --> 00:10:53,830 也是因为上次就是反弹到这个位置没过去嘛 251 00:10:53,830 --> 00:10:55,250 所以砸下来的对吧 252 00:10:55,250 --> 00:10:56,840 同样这一次呢 253 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:01,179 如果反弹真的成功站上了88块六 254 00:11:01,179 --> 00:11:04,259 他不应该再继续持有空头仓位 255 00:11:04,259 --> 00:11:07,110 因为不符合这个顺势而为的原则啊 256 00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:10,889 所以那个时候空头回补加上多头的追涨 257 00:11:10,889 --> 00:11:14,710 预计软件股的好日子就要来了啊 258 00:11:14,710 --> 00:11:16,710 好那这个地方说的是软件 259 00:11:16,710 --> 00:11:17,610 我这里也写着 260 00:11:17,610 --> 00:11:19,289 如果能突破88块六 261 00:11:19,289 --> 00:11:21,679 远期是上看101级上方的 262 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:23,600 这个远期不是说一天两天 263 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,679 一天一周两周或者一个月两个月啊 264 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,639 是一个直接上行结构的 265 00:11:27,639 --> 00:11:28,759 上看那个时候 266 00:11:28,759 --> 00:11:31,639 那基本上IGV这边就比较不错了是吧 267 00:11:31,639 --> 00:11:33,039 后面就可以稳住了 268 00:11:33,039 --> 00:11:36,059 好那他稳住了 269 00:11:36,059 --> 00:11:37,860 是不是市场都好了呢 270 00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:39,059 也不是啊 271 00:11:39,059 --> 00:11:41,899 呃我们讲IGV之前被做空软件被做空 272 00:11:41,899 --> 00:11:44,139 其中一个最大的交易对是什么 273 00:11:44,139 --> 00:11:47,440 是做多半导体做空软件 274 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,220 那么如果IGV突破空头大量回补之后 275 00:11:51,220 --> 00:11:52,940 软件不被做空了 276 00:11:52,940 --> 00:11:56,240 那其实呢他要追涨买入对吧 277 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,820 但是他的仓位呢它又包括杠杆上 278 00:11:58,820 --> 00:11:59,820 它又要发生变化 279 00:11:59,820 --> 00:12:00,509 那怎么办 280 00:12:00,509 --> 00:12:03,940 那一定要在半导体上做文章 281 00:12:03,940 --> 00:12:07,539 那半导体呢其实最近涨得也非常的好 282 00:12:07,539 --> 00:12:10,250 给大家看一下呃 283 00:12:10,250 --> 00:12:14,080 非成半导体指数其实最近一直在创新高 284 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:15,679 一直在往上涨 285 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,419 它这个涨幅呢也非常的快了 286 00:12:18,419 --> 00:12:22,629 已经啊呃那么这种情况我们说在短期啊 287 00:12:22,629 --> 00:12:27,470 总的资金在一个较短的时间内其实就那么多啊 288 00:12:27,470 --> 00:12:28,710 大家应该能理解这个啊 289 00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:29,750 就在一段时间内 290 00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:32,029 他可能随着我们说时间的推移 291 00:12:32,029 --> 00:12:35,100 一年两年3年五年市场总的规模在增加嘛 292 00:12:35,100 --> 00:12:36,379 它会缓慢的上行 293 00:12:36,379 --> 00:12:37,580 但是在一段时间内 294 00:12:37,580 --> 00:12:38,730 比方说一两个月之内 295 00:12:38,730 --> 00:12:40,889 他的资金量不可能凭空多出来 296 00:12:40,889 --> 00:12:41,769 大几万亿 297 00:12:41,769 --> 00:12:42,529 几10万亿对吧 298 00:12:42,529 --> 00:12:43,470 那不可能吧 299 00:12:43,470 --> 00:12:45,330 所以在这种情况下 300 00:12:45,330 --> 00:12:48,269 市场资金相对有限的情况下 301 00:12:48,269 --> 00:12:50,350 又那么只有那么多的情况下 302 00:12:50,350 --> 00:12:51,450 空头一回补 303 00:12:51,450 --> 00:12:55,249 再加上软件的多头的一追涨 304 00:12:55,249 --> 00:12:59,429 市场的资金其实就被分到了软件去 305 00:12:59,429 --> 00:13:01,169 分到了软件的个股上 306 00:13:01,169 --> 00:13:04,029 那么至今被做多最多的半导体 307 00:13:04,029 --> 00:13:06,799 它的资金就被分流了 308 00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:10,779 那么这个分流不是说一定会导致大幅的下跌 309 00:13:10,779 --> 00:13:14,100 但是你让它同步大幅高涨 310 00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:15,970 这个概率就更低了 311 00:13:15,970 --> 00:13:18,389 更别说整个的软件板块 312 00:13:18,389 --> 00:13:21,169 现在的超买情况非常非常的严重 313 00:13:21,169 --> 00:13:21,700 对不对 314 00:13:21,700 --> 00:13:24,659 所以如果真的是发生了软件的继续的突破 315 00:13:24,659 --> 00:13:26,259 之后的大量回补和追涨 316 00:13:26,259 --> 00:13:28,580 而半导体出现了小幅的回撤 317 00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:31,759 同时修复指标完全是合理的走势啊 318 00:13:31,759 --> 00:13:33,740 完全是非常非常合理的 319 00:13:33,740 --> 00:13:35,779 资金流向的一个短期变化吧 320 00:13:35,779 --> 00:13:40,059 好那这里呢我就正好把两个ETF拿出来 321 00:13:40,059 --> 00:13:41,659 给大家看一下关键位置啊 322 00:13:41,659 --> 00:13:47,220 这样大家可能后面能够知道回撤会回撤到哪儿 323 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,279 好首先我们看一下费城半导体指数ASOXX啊 324 00:13:52,279 --> 00:13:54,429 给大家做了一个更新 325 00:13:54,950 --> 00:13:55,350 呃 326 00:13:55,350 --> 00:13:58,330 目前的情况呢是386~401 327 00:13:58,330 --> 00:14:01,049 这里是极小极小的支撑啊 328 00:14:01,049 --> 00:14:02,529 极小的支撑啊 329 00:14:02,529 --> 00:14:04,590 几乎是可以忽略不计的 330 00:14:04,590 --> 00:14:09,009 下方较强的位置是上次突破的前面的高点左右 331 00:14:09,009 --> 00:14:10,570 大概在368 332 00:14:10,570 --> 00:14:12,589 348~368 333 00:14:12,589 --> 00:14:14,528 那如果按照这种情况 334 00:14:14,528 --> 00:14:16,788 真的是出现一轮大回撤 335 00:14:16,788 --> 00:14:18,688 他往跌到这个368 336 00:14:18,688 --> 00:14:23,029 差不多都有将近十个点的回撤幅度了对吧 337 00:14:23,029 --> 00:14:25,769 同时呢指标也可以得到完好的修复 338 00:14:25,769 --> 00:14:27,049 你说它合不合理呢 339 00:14:27,049 --> 00:14:27,970 当然合理 340 00:14:27,970 --> 00:14:28,578 对不对 341 00:14:28,578 --> 00:14:31,099 当前提是软件那边要把资金给吸走啊 342 00:14:31,099 --> 00:14:32,298 那没吸走的情况下 343 00:14:32,298 --> 00:14:35,879 他这边继续该这个继续超买超买继续往上拉呗 344 00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:37,000 拉到最后拉不动了 345 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:37,600 再回撤 346 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:39,000 无非就回撤的多一点嘛对吧 347 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:40,019 其实就这个逻辑啊 348 00:14:40,019 --> 00:14:42,428 所以想追涨软件啊 349 00:14:42,428 --> 00:14:43,469 追涨半导体的朋友 350 00:14:43,469 --> 00:14:45,308 你最近呢要多看一下软件了 351 00:14:45,308 --> 00:14:47,190 看看软件那边有没有突破 352 00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:48,870 如果软件里面拐头又往下跌了 353 00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:49,669 又跌回去了 354 00:14:49,669 --> 00:14:51,230 那对半导体是好事对吧 355 00:14:51,230 --> 00:14:54,710 反之呢对半导体的资金就是一个分流作用好 356 00:14:54,710 --> 00:14:56,450 这是SOOXX 357 00:14:56,450 --> 00:14:58,990 还有一个呢是SMH 358 00:14:59,950 --> 00:15:00,870 他的情况啊 359 00:15:00,870 --> 00:15:03,070 我也对照位置做了标注 360 00:15:03,070 --> 00:15:05,110 437~453 361 00:15:05,110 --> 00:15:07,500 极小极小极小啊 362 00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:08,659 可以忽略不计 363 00:15:08,659 --> 00:15:11,700 下方较强的要去到409~419了 364 00:15:11,700 --> 00:15:14,320 也是10%多的一个回撤 365 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:18,200 中间呢那只有在棘手的位置看看能不能稳住了 366 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,759 同样他的超卖情况也相当严重 367 00:15:20,759 --> 00:15:23,159 都都日线都ISI都90了对吧 368 00:15:23,159 --> 00:15:24,409 我们看看周线 369 00:15:24,409 --> 00:15:25,970 周线81 370 00:15:25,970 --> 00:15:30,279 月线呢月线刚刚也过了八十四了对吧 371 00:15:30,279 --> 00:15:33,230 所以他们都处在一个超买的情况呃 372 00:15:33,230 --> 00:15:35,370 现在呢资金流如果够的情况下 373 00:15:35,370 --> 00:15:36,269 大家还能继续 374 00:15:36,269 --> 00:15:38,149 那资金如果被分流的情况下 375 00:15:38,149 --> 00:15:40,799 那肯定相对来讲就会疲软一些嘛 376 00:15:40,799 --> 00:15:43,200 当然最好的结果如果被分流横盘 377 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:44,360 那已经是不错的结果 378 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:45,480 那么横不住跌下来 379 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,259 大家也觉得那就无所谓呗 380 00:15:47,259 --> 00:15:48,600 你要知道在发生什么 381 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,339 但跌下来不是看空啊 382 00:15:50,339 --> 00:15:51,678 呃我们讲过 383 00:15:51,678 --> 00:15:53,778 好像我在一个季度前说过这个话 384 00:15:53,778 --> 00:15:55,529 就是其实现在市场 385 00:15:55,529 --> 00:15:58,750 我们说为什么要去很多在买大科技 386 00:15:58,750 --> 00:15:59,750 买半导体 387 00:15:59,750 --> 00:16:02,889 不是说我们只对这些板块熟悉 388 00:16:02,889 --> 00:16:04,450 是因为科技股 389 00:16:04,450 --> 00:16:07,379 半导体AI推动的相关的个股 390 00:16:07,379 --> 00:16:09,340 是整个的标普500 391 00:16:09,340 --> 00:16:12,539 在2026年最大的贡献力量 392 00:16:12,539 --> 00:16:14,450 它的业绩最好啊 393 00:16:14,450 --> 00:16:17,809 不是说一定那只这个只做英伟达热本股 394 00:16:17,809 --> 00:16:18,730 不是这个意思啊 395 00:16:18,730 --> 00:16:21,649 是他们确实是业绩最好的股票 396 00:16:21,649 --> 00:16:25,610 在这里边推动了标普的大幅的EPS的提升 397 00:16:25,610 --> 00:16:29,450 所以呃业绩优势加上呃热度也高 398 00:16:29,450 --> 00:16:30,990 加上大家比较熟悉啊 399 00:16:30,990 --> 00:16:31,990 共同几个问题 400 00:16:31,990 --> 00:16:34,129 就推动了整个的半导体走的比较火 401 00:16:34,129 --> 00:16:35,139 是这个原因啊 402 00:16:35,139 --> 00:16:37,839 那么未来呢如果他们增速全部都下滑了 403 00:16:37,839 --> 00:16:41,038 那那个时候呢你的观点或者你的看法 404 00:16:41,038 --> 00:16:42,938 对于他们的高预期往下降一降 405 00:16:42,938 --> 00:16:44,639 那才合理啊 406 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,720 好这个呢就是两个指数 407 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,240 另外呢其他的个股其实我不太想多讲啊 408 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,059 因为今天没有什么东西可说 409 00:16:53,059 --> 00:16:55,568 说实话市场走的非常的慢 410 00:16:55,568 --> 00:16:59,789 嗯还有一个消息相信大家看了就是苹果啊 411 00:17:00,230 --> 00:17:02,470 呃苹果呢是他换帅对吧 412 00:17:02,470 --> 00:17:06,269 从9月1号有新的CEO要上任啊 413 00:17:06,269 --> 00:17:09,589 那么目前呢这个库克这边呢 414 00:17:09,589 --> 00:17:11,910 是要看来要休息了对吧 415 00:17:11,910 --> 00:17:15,159 虽然还是在董事会任职执行董事嘛 416 00:17:15,159 --> 00:17:17,159 但是CEEO这边换人了 417 00:17:17,159 --> 00:17:20,289 那么又要开启一个全新的苹果时代 418 00:17:23,009 --> 00:17:24,589 结果最后还上涨对吧 419 00:17:24,589 --> 00:17:29,500 其实这种情况呢呃呃总的来讲啊 420 00:17:29,500 --> 00:17:31,490 其实我觉得换不换呃 421 00:17:31,490 --> 00:17:34,869 都不影响它的本身的业务路径啊 422 00:17:34,869 --> 00:17:36,670 因为他们换人不是说空降来的 423 00:17:36,670 --> 00:17:38,890 都是从公司内部起来的 424 00:17:38,890 --> 00:17:42,369 那么这种情况对公司的线路图远景规划 425 00:17:42,369 --> 00:17:45,730 其实大家心里边呢都已经有了一个蓝图 426 00:17:45,730 --> 00:17:49,059 无非就是谁去把这个事情执行下去而已 427 00:17:49,059 --> 00:17:51,380 所以呢对于这件事情看好苹果的朋友呢 428 00:17:51,380 --> 00:17:53,140 你也别太在意对吧 429 00:17:53,140 --> 00:17:57,250 呃而且苹果在这些年大家一直都在吐槽的一点 430 00:17:57,250 --> 00:18:00,049 就是相对来讲缺乏创新呃 431 00:18:00,049 --> 00:18:02,329 那看看新的CEO上任之后啊 432 00:18:02,329 --> 00:18:04,650 说不定会有更多的新的创新对吧 433 00:18:04,650 --> 00:18:07,230 谁知道手机未来会变成什么形态呢 434 00:18:07,230 --> 00:18:09,250 哈这个我们就拭目以待啊 435 00:18:09,250 --> 00:18:11,309 不影响它的基本面的业绩 436 00:18:11,309 --> 00:18:12,289 基本面的业绩 437 00:18:12,289 --> 00:18:13,250 还是那句话 438 00:18:13,250 --> 00:18:15,769 那个价格反正是不便宜 439 00:18:15,769 --> 00:18:18,210 呵呵还是不便宜的啊 440 00:18:18,210 --> 00:18:20,549 但是呢它稳它比较稳固 441 00:18:20,549 --> 00:18:21,970 大资金也爱扎堆啊 442 00:18:21,970 --> 00:18:24,450 因为大的资金比较少卖它啊 443 00:18:24,450 --> 00:18:25,450 都是卖的少 444 00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:27,528 所以股价它就算不动吧 445 00:18:27,528 --> 00:18:28,328 它不怎么跌 446 00:18:28,328 --> 00:18:31,289 它也没怎么涨好呃 447 00:18:31,289 --> 00:18:32,630 这个其他的我就不多说了 448 00:18:32,630 --> 00:18:34,910 特斯拉呢是周三的财报 449 00:18:34,910 --> 00:18:36,150 咱们上个星期讲过啊 450 00:18:36,150 --> 00:18:40,630 截止到周五的情况呢是400块钱上下波动 451 00:18:40,630 --> 00:18:41,909 26块钱左右 452 00:18:41,909 --> 00:18:43,709 也就是往上的大426 453 00:18:43,709 --> 00:18:45,868 下方呢往下400-26啊 454 00:18:45,868 --> 00:18:47,328 就是大概是这么个情况 455 00:18:49,609 --> 00:18:52,789 大家呢耐心等财报好呃 456 00:18:52,789 --> 00:18:58,299 那么其他的消息面仍旧是大家应该关注的呃 457 00:18:58,299 --> 00:18:59,579 后续的有一些进展呢 458 00:18:59,579 --> 00:19:02,679 就是停火协议截止日是周三 459 00:19:02,679 --> 00:19:05,298 目前的巴基斯坦呢是正在斡旋 460 00:19:05,298 --> 00:19:08,970 希望双方能同意延长停火协议呃 461 00:19:08,970 --> 00:19:09,990 大家发现没有啊 462 00:19:09,990 --> 00:19:12,089 随着周三的逐渐到来对吧 463 00:19:12,089 --> 00:19:13,089 熟悉的配方 464 00:19:13,089 --> 00:19:14,250 熟悉的味道 465 00:19:14,250 --> 00:19:15,690 结果会一样吗 466 00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:17,849 呵双方会延长吗 467 00:19:17,849 --> 00:19:21,359 还是这一次双方不再延长对吧 468 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:22,160 直接给 469 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,500 反正股市也已经反弹到高点了 470 00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:27,759 有足够的安全垫接受它的下跌了对吧 471 00:19:27,759 --> 00:19:28,970 你要是这么想的话 472 00:19:28,970 --> 00:19:32,690 如果你是特别在乎对于金融市场的 473 00:19:32,690 --> 00:19:35,670 这个整个的预期管理的一个呃 474 00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:37,400 具有决策能力的人 475 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,220 如果市场有足够安全件的情况下 476 00:19:40,220 --> 00:19:42,720 是不是给了你也有足够的空间嘛对吧 477 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,769 所以呢那看看周三会不会有变数啊 478 00:19:45,769 --> 00:19:47,089 按照之前的逻辑 479 00:19:47,089 --> 00:19:48,450 到最后一分钟 480 00:19:48,450 --> 00:19:50,930 那市场总会朝好的方向发展对吧 481 00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:53,039 双方大家之前都很凶啊 482 00:19:53,039 --> 00:19:56,119 恨不得呢都要朝对方脸上吐口水了 483 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,450 然后等到最后的时候把刀抽出来的时候 484 00:19:59,450 --> 00:20:01,069 发现那不是刀对吧 485 00:20:01,069 --> 00:20:03,529 刀鞘里藏的是这个纸巾 486 00:20:03,529 --> 00:20:04,809 哎我帮你擦擦脸啊 487 00:20:04,809 --> 00:20:06,130 别生气哈哈 488 00:20:06,130 --> 00:20:07,650 先看最后会不会这样吧啊 489 00:20:07,650 --> 00:20:10,700 我们这之前几次看到的情况都大差不差 490 00:20:10,700 --> 00:20:12,759 这一次周三我们看看还能不能延长啊 491 00:20:12,759 --> 00:20:15,578 但这个呢目前我们没有办法去压注啊 492 00:20:15,578 --> 00:20:19,130 如果你按照这个polly market上的这个压注情况 493 00:20:19,130 --> 00:20:20,369 他们截止到今天 494 00:20:20,369 --> 00:20:23,049 霍尔木兹海峡在4月底能开通的概率啊 495 00:20:23,049 --> 00:20:24,609 他们的押注的情况是 496 00:20:24,609 --> 00:20:26,569 大概只有26%左右啊 497 00:20:26,569 --> 00:20:28,480 几率他们认为只有26% 498 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,690 是在4月底之前能开放好 499 00:20:31,690 --> 00:20:32,089 呃 500 00:20:32,089 --> 00:20:33,609 今天呢市场没有大的成交量 501 00:20:33,609 --> 00:20:35,650 说明市场没有下注在等待 502 00:20:35,650 --> 00:20:37,599 那咱们也慢慢去等吧 503 00:20:37,599 --> 00:20:40,279 呃周三呢还有特斯拉的财报啊 504 00:20:40,279 --> 00:20:42,259 估计是挺刺激的一天 505 00:20:42,259 --> 00:20:44,180 另外呢从资金流上我们讲了 506 00:20:44,180 --> 00:20:46,700 上个星期本周的CCTA的买还是买 507 00:20:46,700 --> 00:20:50,539 但是买入幅度和上周比呢力度会下降 508 00:20:50,539 --> 00:20:51,970 好吧好 509 00:20:51,970 --> 00:20:54,049 这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊 510 00:20:54,049 --> 00:20:57,130 如果你觉得我的节目信息对你有所帮助 511 00:20:57,130 --> 00:21:00,539 还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发 512 00:21:00,539 --> 00:21:01,180 谢谢大家啊 513 00:21:01,180 --> 00:21:01,740 多多点赞 514 00:21:01,740 --> 00:21:02,339 感谢大家 515 00:21:02,339 --> 00:21:03,480 那我们今天到这 516 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:04,740 咱们也慢慢等啊 517 00:21:04,740 --> 00:21:05,880 就明天的盘后 518 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,299 同一时间不见不散
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