【Couch Investor】4万亿市值谷歌，继续持有还是获利了结？

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嘿

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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在今天的视频中

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我们将讨论谷歌母公司Alphabet

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投资并分析当前市场状况

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正如你们所知

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去年谷歌在市场中并不受投资者青睐

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成为全球第二有价值的企业

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是的

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目前股价徘徊在每股300美元左右

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但市场对谷歌的看法已发生巨大变化

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市场对谷歌、微软、亚马逊、Meta等公司看法已改变

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任你列举

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等等

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现在让我们看看谷歌的情况

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现在

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它是否仍然被低估

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还是可能已处于高价区间

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我们将进行快速DCF分析

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保守、乐观及基准情景

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所有内容都在今天的视频中

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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请点赞关注

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我们非常感谢

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如果能进一步支持我

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请查看下方链接

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这里已整理了当前十大最佳投资标的

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或访问full.com/forward

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斜杠

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Goinvestor

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谢谢大家

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正如我们看到的

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谷歌母公司Alphabet过去一年股价约300美元

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上涨72.8%

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百分比

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不过

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若追溯至最低点

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它确实

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市值翻倍以上

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没错

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但若观察当前估值倍数

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市盈率28.1倍（前瞻市盈率）

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当前市盈率26.2倍

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当然考虑历史市盈率

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是的

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这里存在一次性收益因素

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但前瞻市盈率未包含这些

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而前面的那个是两六乘以二

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六乘以四

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P e

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对于像谷歌这样的公司来说并不算昂贵

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但如果我们开始查看自由现金流

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问题就出在这里

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因为所有这些公司

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字母公司

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微软

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梅

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随便举个例子

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自由现金流将成为问题

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因为当你增加资本支出时

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在他们的情况中几乎两年增长

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是的

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除非业务增长速度能跟上资本支出

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你的自由现金流将大幅下降

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因此整体上可能显得比实际更昂贵

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我相信亚马逊可能又会有一年

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自由现金流将不存在

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同样的情况适用于字母公司吗

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我们先来看看

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将这些市盈率与近十年平均值对比

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交易价P/E为28倍

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平均29倍

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3倍左右

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略低于十年平均

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而前瞻市盈率呢

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接近26倍

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即使说25倍

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好的

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我们仍高于十年平均

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你可以看到去年与现在的巨大差异

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这就是问题所在

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前瞻自由现金流收益率

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你应该预期

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或者以谷歌为例

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在此应约为3%

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3.4%

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有时甚至4%左右

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目前前瞻情况

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当然0.6%非常低

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所以

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当你做DCF分析时

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必须调整这个因素

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或者忽略不计

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并认为自由现金流将持续增长

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因为营收预期增长

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若保持相同自由现金流利润率

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则看起来更好

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我稍后会告诉你会发生什么

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市销率远高于十年平均水平

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市销率是十年均值的9.1倍

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这里显示前向市销率为6.4倍

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市销率为7.8倍

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平均值接近5.5倍

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观察利润率

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营业利润率

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这些数据均为过去十二个月

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这样我们能更全面了解

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32%的利润率

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接近历史新高

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自由现金流利润率依然健康

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可想而知

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当然已远低于之前水平

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我们目前处于18.2%

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2%的水平

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毛利率持续提升至59%

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9%

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7%的毛利率

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净利润率也有所上升

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右侧显示3.2%

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2.8%的利润率

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净利润率达2.8%

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经营现金流同样表现良好

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一百六十四点七亿美元

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现在已达1647亿美元

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如何达到这些数据呢？上季度

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他们展示了营收首次突破四百亿美元

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搜索业务收入增长超17%

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Gemini应用月活用户超7.5亿

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YouTube广告与订阅收入达600亿美元（2025年）

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收入超700亿美元

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谷歌云及Q4年化营收增长率达4.9%

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同比上涨8.8%

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每分钟处理超100亿tokens

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付费消费者订阅数达3.25亿

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观察美国搜索广告市场

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谷歌仍占据主导地位

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若看2024-2026年数据

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至2026年

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预计仍将持续抢占市场份额

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分析YouTube业务

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没错

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我们此刻正在观看这个视频

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但YouTube更是庞大的广告业务

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仅次于

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谷歌搜索业务

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过去几年发生的变化

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活跃用户持续增长

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向右看

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这就是如何获得这十一分

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单个季度营收三亿美元

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当然现在预计还会增长

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当然包括YouTube

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有两种方式可以看待这个问题

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一种是YouTube免费版

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一种

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纯粹依靠广告收入

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第二种当然是YouTube订阅服务

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但你需要按月付费订阅

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并获得YouTube Premium体验

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YouTube TV

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也许你想添加一些体育音乐

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你可以列举各种业务类型

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如果一方的订阅规模扩大

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当然意味着广告受众减少

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但这并非坏事

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然后最大的驱动力和最大驱动力是

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当然资本支出增加这是谷歌云业务

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如你所见

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上季度对他们来说堪称疯狂

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因为增长了百分之四十七

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同比增长百分之七

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这个数字不仅惊人

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而且增长加速

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同时利润率持续提升

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我们现在达到三十个百分点以上

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这是我们过去一年一直在说的

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现在

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市场纯粹关注

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好的

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搜索业务

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因为搜索是这家公司的最大营收驱动力

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但云业务增长速度远超搜索

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在我看来未来会变得极具盈利能力

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我们看到

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上季度还有这个积压订单

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二百四十亿美元

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环比增长百分之五十五且同比翻倍

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新客户增速是第一季度的两倍

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2025年超十亿美元的交易量超过过去三年总和

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他们拥有十四条产品线

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每条年营收均超十亿美元

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我们也看到

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这是我们跟踪的数据是

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当然整体业务的收入来源是

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因为这个威胁

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比如当Chagpd发布时

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这没问题

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它将摧毁谷歌搜索

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因此我们开始追踪搜索业务带来的收入占比

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以及目前其他业务带来的收入占比

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如您所见

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仍然保持五成

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五点

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四成搜索业务

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四十

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四点

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三成来自其他业务

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我预计这一比例将持续增长并达到五成

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可能更接近二三十成

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这并非因为搜索业务在经营中遇到困难

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很多

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其实并非如此

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我们可以看到搜索业务在最近几个季度实现了加速增长

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疯狂

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市场为何完全搞错了

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现在从大局展望未来

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这就是核心所在

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您今天购买的业务，明天、下周、下月

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下个季度

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未来几年

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这就是为何市场感到恐惧，看资本支出

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资本支出每年都在增加

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但目前自由现金流保持增长且稳定

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若看2024年数据

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资本支出525亿美元

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自由现金流

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727亿美元

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看财年25

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资本支出超910亿美元

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但自由现金流同比略有增长

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但分析师预测未来两年的自由现金流

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这里将出现大幅下降

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因为

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资本支出预计在财年26增长近一倍

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但我们之前已见证过大幅增长

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不过明年资本支出将增加近400亿美元

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自由现金流预计增长近1890亿美元

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承受这一冲击

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有待观察

240
00:09:40,309 --> 00:09:42,809
我认为这里的差异相当显著

241
00:09:42,809 --> 00:09:43,669
但没错

242
00:09:43,669 --> 00:09:46,669
这类业务短期内将承受自由现金流压力

243
00:09:46,669 --> 00:09:48,429
因资本支出增加导致自由现金流利润率下降

244
00:09:48,429 --> 00:09:50,070
然后最大的问题在于

245
00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:52,269
所有这一切

246
00:09:52,269 --> 00:09:54,710
关键在于投资回报率

247
00:09:54,710 --> 00:09:58,070
对于像Alphabet这样的企业而言

248
00:09:58,070 --> 00:09:58,970
Meta

249
00:09:58,970 --> 00:09:59,629
亚马逊

250
00:09:59,629 --> 00:10:01,289
甚至微软也有

251
00:10:01,289 --> 00:10:05,179
他们的核心业务极其极其盈利

252
00:10:05,179 --> 00:10:09,080
在我们分析DCF和当前市场前

253
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,299
有一份报告显示

254
00:10:12,299 --> 00:10:13,440
所报告的信息

255
00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:14,799
我认为上周

256
00:10:14,799 --> 00:10:17,240
Meta也在与谷歌谈判

257
00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,779
计划明年为其数据中心采购TPU

258
00:10:21,779 --> 00:10:25,169
这些谈判的进展尚不明确

259
00:10:25,169 --> 00:10:29,899
谷歌还与某知名投资机构签约

260
00:10:29,899 --> 00:10:34,720
共同成立合资企业租赁TPU给其他客户

261
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,480
该报告补充道

262
00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,039
有人认为这不合逻辑

263
00:10:38,039 --> 00:10:40,419
因为谷歌投入如此多资金

264
00:10:40,419 --> 00:10:41,779
因为他们看到巨大需求

265
00:10:41,779 --> 00:10:46,230
为何要向Meta等公司出售TPU

266
00:10:46,230 --> 00:10:48,230
对此我回应道

267
00:10:48,230 --> 00:10:49,370
如果他们这样做

268
00:10:49,370 --> 00:10:53,250
那么单机经济效益可能更合理

269
00:10:53,250 --> 00:10:54,428
但另一方面

270
00:10:54,428 --> 00:10:57,928
我认为谷歌现在处于双赢局面

271
00:10:57,928 --> 00:11:00,109
但这些尚未确认

272
00:11:00,109 --> 00:11:00,879
目前尚未

273
00:11:00,879 --> 00:11:01,500
好的

274
00:11:01,500 --> 00:11:03,360
现在转向DCF分析

275
00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:04,059
我们有一个基准

276
00:11:04,059 --> 00:11:06,200
现在有看涨和看跌情景

277
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,589
记住未来两年自由现金流的变化

278
00:11:09,589 --> 00:11:12,389
预计会大幅下降

279
00:11:12,389 --> 00:11:14,230
如果我们现在观察

280
00:11:14,230 --> 00:11:16,470
假设自由现金流保持不变

281
00:11:16,470 --> 00:11:16,889
等等

282
00:11:16,889 --> 00:11:18,169
假设无变化

283
00:11:18,169 --> 00:11:20,269
即使在基准情景下

284
00:11:20,269 --> 00:11:25,690
隐含股价比当前低13%

285
00:11:25,690 --> 00:11:26,850
但如果下降

286
00:11:26,850 --> 00:11:30,048
假设自由现金流利润率降至7%

287
00:11:30,048 --> 00:11:32,109
明年再升至10%

288
00:11:32,109 --> 00:11:34,428
以达到分析师预期

289
00:11:34,428 --> 00:11:34,769
嗯

290
00:11:34,769 --> 00:11:36,190
这里的下行风险

291
00:11:36,190 --> 00:11:38,409
15.4%

292
00:11:38,409 --> 00:11:40,470
但其余部分我看到反弹

293
00:11:40,470 --> 00:11:41,070
回升至2%

294
00:11:41,070 --> 00:11:41,590
1%

295
00:11:41,590 --> 00:11:43,539
自由现金流利润率和营收增长

296
00:11:43,539 --> 00:11:45,259
我认为这是现实的

297
00:11:45,259 --> 00:11:46,860
甚至可能更高

298
00:11:46,860 --> 00:11:50,120
假设今天是十二个百分点或十一点

299
00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:51,240
或者我们可以这样做

300
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:51,539
实际上

301
00:11:51,539 --> 00:11:53,960
我们改用十一点而不是十点

302
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,399
现在我们看到十二点四个百分点的下行风险

303
00:11:57,399 --> 00:11:58,559
如果我们在这里调整

304
00:11:58,559 --> 00:11:59,879
这个自由现金流利润率

305
00:11:59,879 --> 00:12:05,480
以反映分析师对下一财年的预期

306
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:07,320
然后如果我们看乐观情景再次

307
00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:08,759
这里保持不变

308
00:12:08,759 --> 00:12:11,299
我们看到十五点六个百分点的 upside

309
00:12:11,299 --> 00:12:15,059
但如果我们再次下调至七到十个百分点

310
00:12:15,059 --> 00:12:20,620
我们仍预计今日隐含股价为十三点一百分比

311
00:12:20,620 --> 00:12:20,960
是的

312
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,360
由于这是乐观情景

313
00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,379
终端增长率设定为四个百分点

314
00:12:25,379 --> 00:12:27,870
这里也可以认为这是合理的

315
00:12:27,870 --> 00:12:29,009
这听起来很现实

316
00:12:29,009 --> 00:12:31,460
但或许可以更乐观

317
00:12:31,460 --> 00:12:33,820
可以在后期调整自由现金流利润率

318
00:12:33,820 --> 00:12:34,860
可能接近两点

319
00:12:34,860 --> 00:12:36,440
三点或左右

320
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:37,889
或二四个百分点

321
00:12:37,889 --> 00:12:39,370
然后看看会发生什么

322
00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:40,110
发生的情况是

323
00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:42,659
隐含股价现在升至十七点

324
00:12:42,659 --> 00:12:45,600
比当前价格高两点百分比

325
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:46,740
这就是DCF模型的特点

326
00:12:46,740 --> 00:12:48,360
只要故事合理

327
00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:49,809
就可以灵活调整

328
00:12:49,809 --> 00:12:52,129
当然这是一个非常快速的示例

329
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:53,850
如果你想深入分析

330
00:12:53,850 --> 00:12:54,950
需要更长时间

331
00:12:54,950 --> 00:12:57,149
但仅作演示用途

332
00:12:57,149 --> 00:12:59,730
这就是我们当前的分析基础

333
00:12:59,730 --> 00:13:01,029
然后是悲观情景

334
00:13:01,029 --> 00:13:04,049
悲观情景同样保持三点二

335
00:13:04,049 --> 00:13:06,679
价格面临六个百分点的下行空间

336
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:07,899
当前价格水平

337
00:13:07,899 --> 00:13:11,620
因为可以看到自由现金流利润率将维持在二十一点

338
00:13:11,620 --> 00:13:13,720
左右不会更高

339
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,659
所有投资的回报率并不理想

340
00:13:16,659 --> 00:13:20,678
在此情况下营收预期会放缓

341
00:13:20,678 --> 00:13:23,529
尽管我认为即使在悲观情景下

342
00:13:23,529 --> 00:13:25,049
这似乎过于严苛

343
00:13:25,049 --> 00:13:26,669
所以设定为九个百分点

344
00:13:26,669 --> 00:13:28,950
因为我仍认为他们能实现九个百分点增长

345
00:13:28,950 --> 00:13:30,240
即使在悲观情景下

346
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,600
有人甚至认为在悲观情景下可能增长十个百分点

347
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:34,279
但再次

348
00:13:34,279 --> 00:13:35,700
这只是一个练习

349
00:13:35,700 --> 00:13:36,980
如果我们在这里进行调整

350
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:37,720
又一次了

351
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,820
自由现金流利润率在未来两年将达7%至10%

352
00:13:41,820 --> 00:13:46,220
这里存在接近30%的下行风险

353
00:13:46,220 --> 00:13:48,500
当我们审视所有这些数据时

354
00:13:48,500 --> 00:13:50,580
当然你可以不同意这些数据

355
00:13:50,580 --> 00:13:51,740
这就是DCF的魅力

356
00:13:51,740 --> 00:13:53,429
你可以随意调整它们

357
00:13:53,429 --> 00:13:57,350
这也是其缺点之一，因为DCF

358
00:13:57,350 --> 00:13:58,950
如果你想得到某个数字

359
00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:00,129
你会让它成立

360
00:14:00,129 --> 00:14:04,559
你可以调整所有数字以达到想要的精确数值

361
00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:05,659
我不知道是谁说的

362
00:14:05,659 --> 00:14:09,980
但有一句名言说如果需要为股票做DCF分析

363
00:14:09,980 --> 00:14:13,149
那现在可能价格过高

364
00:14:13,149 --> 00:14:14,490
用这些数据

365
00:14:14,490 --> 00:14:16,990
你可以开始理解市场为何说

366
00:14:16,990 --> 00:14:17,370
好的

367
00:14:17,370 --> 00:14:18,289
大多数这些讨论

368
00:14:18,289 --> 00:14:21,740
为什么它们在市盈率基础上可能显得便宜

369
00:14:21,740 --> 00:14:23,700
当你进行这类练习时

370
00:14:23,700 --> 00:14:28,159
也许已经将未来的成功因素纳入当前

371
00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:30,480
但我们多年来学到的一点是

372
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,980
很多时候这些公司会超出预期

373
00:14:33,980 --> 00:14:34,419
所以

374
00:14:34,419 --> 00:14:37,480
即使看乐观情景也只有15%的 upside

375
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,500
基准情景是13%的 downside

376
00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:40,460
但 hey

377
00:14:40,460 --> 00:14:42,580
也许他们会创造奇迹

378
00:14:42,580 --> 00:14:46,730
并更快增长以弥补差距

379
00:14:46,730 --> 00:14:49,169
现在我们看到谷歌股票的情况

380
00:14:49,169 --> 00:14:51,210
当前股价约300美元

381
00:14:51,210 --> 00:14:53,879
这曾是之前的底部

382
00:14:53,879 --> 00:14:55,929
现在是否可能成为底部

383
00:14:55,929 --> 00:14:57,669
比如去年12月

384
00:14:57,669 --> 00:14:58,809
那时是底部

385
00:14:58,809 --> 00:15:00,850
如果看二月中旬

386
00:15:00,850 --> 00:15:01,970
也曾出现底部

387
00:15:01,970 --> 00:15:04,500
让我们看看能否稳定在

388
00:15:04,500 --> 00:15:05,159
这个价位

389
00:15:05,159 --> 00:15:06,600
RSI指标偏低

390
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,659
但日线未超卖

391
00:15:09,659 --> 00:15:11,589
记住内部增持

392
00:15:11,589 --> 00:15:13,009
过去几天

393
00:15:13,009 --> 00:15:17,039
我们看到大量内部人士开始买入自家股票

394
00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:19,419
在此案例中杰德·艾萨克曼并非真正内部人

395
00:15:19,419 --> 00:15:20,820
是最大股东

396
00:15:20,820 --> 00:15:22,620
Shift4公司的创始人

397
00:15:22,620 --> 00:15:23,919
前SEO

398
00:15:23,919 --> 00:15:25,460
他一直在大量购买股票

399
00:15:25,460 --> 00:15:28,649
安东尼奥托在马利大量购入股票

400
00:15:28,649 --> 00:15:30,250
我们有一个突然出现的案例

401
00:15:30,250 --> 00:15:33,269
首席会计官一直在买入部分股票

402
00:15:33,269 --> 00:15:35,570
我们也注意到服务现在

403
00:15:35,570 --> 00:15:38,789
CEO买入了价值三百万美元的股票

404
00:15:38,789 --> 00:15:41,590
最近我们讨论过的梅利案例

405
00:15:41,590 --> 00:15:43,149
看来多邻国也有类似情况

406
00:15:43,149 --> 00:15:43,309
这里

407
00:15:43,309 --> 00:15:48,740
一位董事以五万美元买入了价值五十万美元的股票

408
00:15:48,740 --> 00:15:49,779
有些人可能会说

409
00:15:49,779 --> 00:15:49,980
哦

410
00:15:49,980 --> 00:15:50,960
这不是很多钱

411
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:56,100
我认为五十万美元买入这家公司的股票仍是一笔大额资金

412
00:15:56,100 --> 00:15:57,440
我觉得其他人也有

413
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:57,679
是的

414
00:15:57,679 --> 00:15:59,320
我们也有关于交易台的案例

415
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:00,919
这是我见过最大的一笔

416
00:16:00,919 --> 00:16:02,419
我认为杰夫格林

417
00:16:02,419 --> 00:16:03,519
一百四十

418
00:16:03,519 --> 00:16:06,559
价值八百万美元的股票

419
00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:07,539
股价上涨了

420
00:16:07,539 --> 00:16:10,399
还有关于开放眼睛的公告

421
00:16:10,399 --> 00:16:13,679
与公司洽谈在Chagpt投放广告

422
00:16:13,679 --> 00:16:15,799
显然这里势头很好

423
00:16:15,799 --> 00:16:17,159
这里还有其他内容吗

424
00:16:17,159 --> 00:16:17,860
微软

425
00:16:17,860 --> 00:16:22,730
显然微软某人也在增持公司股票

426
00:16:22,730 --> 00:16:25,309
我们之前讨论过的Transmedics

427
00:16:25,309 --> 00:16:28,169
公司也在增持更多股票

428
00:16:28,169 --> 00:16:32,529
我们还有伯克希尔的CEO格雷格·阿贝尔

429
00:16:32,529 --> 00:16:36,629
伯克希尔也开始买入公司股票

430
00:16:36,629 --> 00:16:38,929
这是自2024年以来首次

431
00:16:38,929 --> 00:16:40,730
我们现在开始看到

432
00:16:40,730 --> 00:16:40,990
好的

433
00:16:40,990 --> 00:16:45,470
内部人士开始放心买入自家公司股票

434
00:16:45,470 --> 00:16:46,889
俗话说

435
00:16:46,889 --> 00:16:49,169
内部人有很多可能的原因

436
00:16:49,169 --> 00:16:53,259
但通常只有一个原因让内部人买入股票

437
00:16:53,259 --> 00:16:54,559
因为他们看涨

438
00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:56,320
除非他们喜欢烧钱

439
00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,139
现在我几乎不信这是情况

440
00:17:00,139 --> 00:17:00,860
顺便说一句

441
00:17:00,860 --> 00:17:01,720
如果我遗漏了任何

442
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,789
请在下方评论区告诉我

443
00:17:03,789 --> 00:17:05,049
目前是周四

444
00:17:05,049 --> 00:17:06,549
这就是市场当前状况

445
00:17:06,549 --> 00:17:08,450
所以轮动方向

446
00:17:08,450 --> 00:17:10,690
没错，医疗、生产、制造业

447
00:17:10,690 --> 00:17:15,960
这些似乎在过去都比科技股遭受更大冲击

448
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,848
几天前的周三天气格外晴朗

449
00:17:19,848 --> 00:17:23,489
今天似乎有些阴晴不定

450
00:17:23,489 --> 00:17:27,029
虽然软件行业似乎有所复苏

451
00:17:27,029 --> 00:17:27,910
非常有趣

452
00:17:27,910 --> 00:17:29,630
当前的市场状况

453
00:17:29,630 --> 00:17:31,349
总的来说这就是我的全部看法

454
00:17:31,349 --> 00:17:32,349
在这段视频中谷歌

455
00:17:32,349 --> 00:17:33,789
当然从长远来看

456
00:17:33,789 --> 00:17:35,440
分拆后看起来估值偏低

457
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:36,619
这是一家优秀公司

458
00:17:36,619 --> 00:17:38,339
但当你开始分析

459
00:17:38,339 --> 00:17:41,759
当然包括自由现金流影响等因素，你可以理解原因

460
00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:45,690
有些人可能认为它并不像人们说的那么便宜

461
00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:47,490
但它仍是优质公司

462
00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:51,190
我目前无意抛售其股份

463
00:17:51,190 --> 00:17:52,670
我有计划增持吗

464
00:17:52,670 --> 00:17:57,509
暂时可能不会，我们接下来会用亚马逊做同样分析

465
00:17:57,509 --> 00:17:59,940
因为亚马逊也是极端案例

466
00:17:59,940 --> 00:18:04,059
亚马逊没有超过20%的自由现金流利润率

467
00:18:04,059 --> 00:18:05,279
实际上在最近十二个月

468
00:18:05,279 --> 00:18:08,359
目前已降至1%

469
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,539
这就是人们恐慌的原因

470
00:18:12,539 --> 00:18:14,910
但这将在下期视频中讨论

471
00:18:14,910 --> 00:18:15,910
如果你喜欢这类视频

472
00:18:15,910 --> 00:18:16,750
请点赞关注

473
00:18:16,750 --> 00:18:18,950
我们非常感谢，下次见

474
00:18:18,950 --> 00:18:19,190
再见

475
00:18:19,190 --> 00:18:19,740
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