【NaNa说美股】20260227都在避险！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是2月27号周五

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美国1月PPI数据超预期

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通胀担忧重燃

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消息面上呢也是利空扎堆

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美股

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三大股指集体走弱

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半导体板块被英伟达拖累重挫

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软件板块呢被达子的亲儿子COOLIVER拖下了水

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苹果也带崩了消费电子板块

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反正今天AI无论是硬件还是软件

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都遭到了资金的抛售

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戴尔科技虽然暴涨

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可是也没能够抵消科技板块的整体疲软

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盘前韩国股市就已经先出事了

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外资一键卖出47亿美元

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结束了韩指近期的疯牛走势

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集中获利了结和月末再平衡是主要原因

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外资都在跑啊

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只有韩国本地机构和散户在承接

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虽然分析师们都说只是技术性调整

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后面还会涨

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但是我更相信外资用脚投票

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别说行指了

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2026年

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美股年初至今

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也都是靠存储股票在支撑着科技板块

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不然的话

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QQ早就跌破年限了

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嗯可是存储都涨了多久啦

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也的确积累了大量的获利盘

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别看存储蓄势现在这么硬

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当华尔街要卖的时候

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分分钟就能够换一套叙事的美股

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盘前08:30呢

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美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示

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美国1月整体PPI与核心PPI同比环比

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都超出市场预期

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与此同时

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美国2月芝加哥PMI录得57.7

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远超荣枯线和市场预期的52.8

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连续第二个月处于扩张区域

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制造业端呢强劲扩张

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整体划分就是美国经济韧性十足

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可是通胀顽固

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降息预期再次被打压

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也削弱了大型银行和私募股权平台

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所依赖的杠杆交易

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并购和资本市场活动的牛市利哦

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不过呢通胀并非今天的首要关注点

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市场更担心地缘政治风险与美股

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科技股的持续疲软

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美伊双方昨天没能达成协议

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虽然下周继续谈判

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但是随着美军最大航母福特号今天抵达以色列

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美伊的局部战争风险急剧的升高

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据媒体报道哈

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非紧急必要人员以及家属今天撤离以色列呃

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加拿大

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印度

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中国等多国家

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近日也纷纷建议本国公民不要前往伊朗

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已经在伊朗的要立即离开

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英国政府称

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出于安全形势考虑

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英国从伊朗暂时撤出了使馆工作人员

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伊朗武装部队总参谋部发言人表示

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美国的任何挑衅行为都将遭到伊朗武装部队

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果断而且毁灭性的回击

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川普今天呢对媒体透露

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美伊双方还会进行呃更多的谈判

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并且称他希望与伊朗达成协议

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但他同时又表示对当前局势并不满意

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在被问及是否会对伊朗动用军事力量时

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他表示并不想这么做

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但有时候不得不这么做

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说了等于没说嘛

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可能会打

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也可能不会打

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看我心情

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这诺贝尔和平奖未获得者

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这个川普是这么说的哈

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前两天评论区里有个朋友说川普再干两年啊

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美股都要精神分裂了

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我觉得不用等两年

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现在大家都已经被的搞得有点精分了

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在全世界的目光都聚焦中东的时候呢

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今天另一则消息却占据了新闻头条

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巴基斯坦轰炸阿富汗多座主要城市

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包括首都喀布尔

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自去年10月以来

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双方边境冲突就不断

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两国在卡塔尔与土耳其居中嗯

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甘选之下呢

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曾初步达成停火协议

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随后也举行过数轮谈判

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但是终究还是没能达成持久的真正的和平协议

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最近几个月

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巴基斯坦多次空袭阿富汗

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并且呢在边境地区发生冲突

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昨天阿富汗部队又攻击了巴基斯坦边界军队

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塔利班政府表示

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这是在报复稍早造成死伤的空袭呃

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在历经数个月以牙还牙的冲突之后

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现在耐心已经到极限了

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双方现在就处于公开交战状态

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所谓大炮一响

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黄金万两

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金银价格今天就直线飙升了哈

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黄金暂时还算温和

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白影这边涨幅就比较剧烈了

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涨了约7.8%

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可以把它视为两倍或者三倍做多

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黄金国际油价也飙升

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导致航空公司股票今天都集体下挫

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如果伊朗那边开打

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油价会继续走高

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给美国经济呢带来通胀回升的压力

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所以很多人都说川普不会打伊朗的

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不敢打话

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可不能说死呀

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那么多的飞机大炮都拉过去了

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难道是为了做演习吗

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毕竟要不要打

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也不是川普一个人能够决定的是吧

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背后那么多的利益牵扯了

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而且也要看对面那个伊朗到底要怎么做

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10年期美的收益率今天呢破位下行

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因为市场当下主要是在交易地缘风险哈

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而并非降息于其

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所以别被这个收益率走低给迷惑了

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这不是宽松回归

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而是风险溢价上升

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资金正在买入美债避险

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比特币好不容易攒了一天

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又被压下去了

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近24个小时

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全球超过10万人被包仓

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周三那天的大涨上

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很多人都以为币圈触底了

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牛市要重新启动了

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所以就很多人啊开始做多甚至杠杆做多

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结果呢空欢喜了一场

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银行股今天集体走低

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上周四信贷机构啊

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蓝猫头鹰突然暂停了旗下基金的赎回

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并且出售部分基金资产

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市场本来就担忧

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近年来疯狂扩张的企业债务问题

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尤其是软件和人工智能行业公司的泡沫风险了

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今天英国一家金融机构MFS宣布破产啊

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令华尔街再受打击

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因为这个公司的贷款方

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包括阿波罗全球管理公司

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信贷部门

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巴克莱呃

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富国银行

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JEFFREY金融集团等等

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可能给这些机构会造成数10亿美元的损失

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而这些机构的股价几年也都出现了下跌

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阿波罗全球管理APO

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股价呢自年初以来就持续下跌

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今天再度重挫

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和那个蓝猫头鹰blue out可谓是难兄难弟哈

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所以呢这些借贷机构自身都泥菩萨过河了

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被那些疯狂借债

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融资扩张的数据中心们给拖下了水

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美联储又迟迟的不肯降息

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哪天风险真的爆了

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整个金融系统都会很危险

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这也解释了为什么市场在一次选择了

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在英伟达的强劲财报后获利了结

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简单来说哈

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这个卖铲子的生意呢已经火爆了3年

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可是买铲子的那一批人已经负债累累了

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结果金矿的影子现在都还没有看到

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倒是一个个的全都拖欠了银行一大堆的钱

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如果银行业的风险敞口太大了

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要收紧条件

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那买铲子的债务就要暴雷了

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那这个卖铲子生意还能够红火多久呢

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这个观点不一定对哈

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但是只要市场觉得有这个可能

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一些资金就会先卖再说

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尤其是在大盘连续数月停滞不前

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地缘焦虑情绪升温的时候

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那这个避险情绪就会占据上风

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并未达股价呢

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在财报后连续两天放量大跌

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跌幅已经达到了11%左右

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这已经基本宣泄了短期的获利盘压力

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财报前

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因为它的看涨期权持仓过于密集

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这种幅度的快速杀跌

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本质上是做市商对高杠杆多头的定点清除

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下周如果股价出现超跌反弹哈

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那第一个目标就是回补今天留下的跳空缺口

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因为一支真正的强势股

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它的回调应该在一两天内回补向下跳空的缺口

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如果在下个周三之前还无法回补缺口的话

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那意味着技术性回调已经演变为

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中期的平台下移了

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而上方均线密集区域

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185~190美元之间

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这现在已经成为城中的天花板

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如果股价不能放量收复这条半年线哈

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那所有的反弹都只是给之前没走的人

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第二次出逃的机会

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目前呢盘面显示资金正在流出AI权重股

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如果你手里持有英伟达的股票被套的话

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现在已经错过最佳止损位了哈

213
00:09:19,980 --> 00:09:23,200
这个时候割肉性价比不高就没有必要了

214
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,120
下周超跌反弹解套了

215
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:27,299
可以坚持一些

216
00:09:27,299 --> 00:09:28,860
如果仓位过重的话

217
00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:32,620
今天英伟达尾盘的时候突然出现了加速跳水

218
00:09:32,620 --> 00:09:36,120
而大盘呢呃当时在尾盘是走高的

219
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,519
所以这个跳水并不是被大盘给拖累的

220
00:09:39,519 --> 00:09:42,000
当时有个即时消息跳出来哈

221
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:43,328
就是川普村

222
00:09:43,328 --> 00:09:47,408
ENTROPICK在最近与五角大楼的对抗中做错了

223
00:09:47,408 --> 00:09:51,120
要求所有部门采用ANTPC的技术

224
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,440
这个事情吧已经闹了有一阵子了

225
00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,620
就是五角大楼呢要求to pig

226
00:09:55,620 --> 00:09:58,299
开放AI技术所有权限

227
00:09:58,299 --> 00:10:00,580
供军方无限制使用

228
00:10:00,580 --> 00:10:01,500
而onto pick呢

229
00:10:01,500 --> 00:10:05,440
因为担忧大规模监控和自主致命武器

230
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:06,460
拒绝妥协

231
00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:09,360
称无法昧子良心答应OpenAI

232
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,879
首席执行官奥特曼呢也支持啊

233
00:10:11,879 --> 00:10:15,340
on topic基于这个原则的立场嗯

234
00:10:15,340 --> 00:10:16,980
嗯本来两个是冤家的哈

235
00:10:16,980 --> 00:10:19,919
但这方面嗯大家还是认同的

236
00:10:22,379 --> 00:10:26,200
目前就只有马斯克旗下的XCAI已经同意了

237
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,100
该条款给军方开放了所有权限

238
00:10:29,100 --> 00:10:33,759
但是是不是这个新闻导致因为它尾盘加速跳水

239
00:10:33,759 --> 00:10:35,480
以及原因到底是什么了

240
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:36,600
那就搞不清楚了

241
00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:37,500
也可能的

242
00:10:37,500 --> 00:10:41,320
只是资金担心周末中东那边打起来啊

243
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,200
所以从呃权重股

244
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,149
这些流动性最好的风险资产中撤离出来

245
00:10:47,149 --> 00:10:50,309
轮动到防御性的股票那边去

246
00:10:50,309 --> 00:10:53,009
所以今天像医保必需消费品

247
00:10:53,009 --> 00:10:55,730
能源和公用事业板块都涨得不错

248
00:10:55,730 --> 00:10:57,049
今天还有个消息

249
00:10:57,049 --> 00:10:58,320
但是没有引起多潮

250
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:03,000
波兰就是OpenAI宣布完成了最新一轮融资

251
00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,230
募资总额呢达到了1100亿美元

252
00:11:06,230 --> 00:11:08,490
亚马逊投了500亿美元

253
00:11:08,490 --> 00:11:11,690
软银与英伟达各出资300亿美元

254
00:11:11,690 --> 00:11:12,570
市场传闻

255
00:11:12,570 --> 00:11:17,240
这笔融资附带了2026年下半年IPO的对赌

256
00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,559
这意味着今年接下来的时间哈

257
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,120
整个AI板块将会处于一种

258
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,960
为了IPO冲刺业绩的高压态势

259
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,759
所以这个板块的波动率就是

260
00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:29,330
你贝塔应该会长期维持在高位

261
00:11:31,970 --> 00:11:35,149
但是标普500指数只跌了0.43%

262
00:11:35,149 --> 00:11:36,470
依然稳得一批哈

263
00:11:36,470 --> 00:11:37,990
尾盘的时候还拉起来了

264
00:11:37,990 --> 00:11:40,710
下周的走势咱们暂时就不做预测了

265
00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:44,580
因为这完全要看周末中东那边会不会爆发战争

266
00:11:48,649 --> 00:11:49,629
就是很明显

267
00:11:57,269 --> 00:11:58,850
大盘想要突破的话

268
00:12:02,078 --> 00:12:06,798
不然的话最好也只能是横着其他个股方面呃

269
00:12:06,798 --> 00:12:09,979
奈飞昨天盘后宣布放弃收购华纳兄弟

270
00:12:09,979 --> 00:12:13,609
结束了这场长达数月的竞购战

271
00:12:13,609 --> 00:12:15,489
并购不确定性解除

272
00:12:15,489 --> 00:12:16,969
估值折价修复

273
00:12:16,969 --> 00:12:18,220
股价大幅反弹

274
00:12:18,220 --> 00:12:21,080
上周帕哈梦给出了最新的出价

275
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:22,460
每股31美元

276
00:12:22,460 --> 00:12:25,179
全现金交易高于奈飞的报价

277
00:12:25,179 --> 00:12:26,899
每股27.75美元

278
00:12:26,899 --> 00:12:30,460
此外帕梦最新报价呢还包括了一项条款

279
00:12:30,460 --> 00:12:35,418
就是呃如果这个并购没能获得监管批准的话

280
00:12:35,418 --> 00:12:40,399
公司将会支付70亿美元的分手费给华纳兄弟

281
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:44,240
另外呢还同意承担华纳兄弟要给奈飞的

282
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:45,980
28亿美元分手费

283
00:12:45,980 --> 00:12:48,168
奈飞不想在寒假了哈

284
00:12:48,168 --> 00:12:51,509
累了还拿八二十八亿美元美滋滋的分手

285
00:12:54,139 --> 00:12:55,340
帕尔蒙资不抵债

286
00:12:55,340 --> 00:12:58,639
两家公司可以一起打包折价出售给奈飞嘛

287
00:12:58,639 --> 00:13:00,799
coo vivo股价呢跳空暴跌

288
00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:02,820
公司Q4营收超预期

289
00:13:02,820 --> 00:13:05,240
证明算力需求依然强劲

290
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,120
668亿美元的订单积压

291
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,399
也意味着未来数年收入确定性较高

292
00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:14,500
可是订单并不等于现金收入呀

293
00:13:14,500 --> 00:13:17,980
在AI基础设施行业将订单转化为收入

294
00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:20,559
那是需要巨额资本支出的公司

295
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,740
将2026年资本支出提高到300亿

296
00:13:23,740 --> 00:13:25,779
到350亿美元之间

297
00:13:25,779 --> 00:13:29,870
这要高于市场预期额的20%

298
00:13:29,870 --> 00:13:33,629
呃也意味着公司现金流压力将会持续

299
00:13:33,629 --> 00:13:35,950
甚至存在进一步融资的可能

300
00:13:35,950 --> 00:13:38,529
盈利示范呢要再次后移

301
00:13:38,529 --> 00:13:39,610
裁判会议上

302
00:13:39,610 --> 00:13:43,610
这个管理层淡化嗯利息与盈利压力

303
00:13:43,610 --> 00:13:46,090
但现实是季度亏损扩大

304
00:13:46,090 --> 00:13:47,950
折旧快速上升

305
00:13:47,950 --> 00:13:50,950
利息支出同比暴增160%

306
00:13:50,950 --> 00:13:52,830
达到了3.88亿美元

307
00:13:52,830 --> 00:13:53,659
每个季度

308
00:13:53,659 --> 00:13:56,639
这正在持续侵蚀股权价值

309
00:13:56,639 --> 00:14:00,620
管理层将其解释为抢占市场的必要扩张

310
00:14:00,620 --> 00:14:05,200
这种用未来增长来覆盖当前财务压力的模式

311
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,519
在科技公司早期来说也并不罕见了

312
00:14:08,519 --> 00:14:10,509
公司给出的嗯

313
00:14:10,509 --> 00:14:14,509
26年第一季度营收指引19亿到20亿美元

314
00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:17,940
明显低于市场预期的23.4亿美元

315
00:14:17,940 --> 00:14:20,919
给出的原因是收入确认滞后

316
00:14:20,919 --> 00:14:23,669
因为设备进产就要开始折旧

317
00:14:23,669 --> 00:14:27,980
而收入呢需要等到客户正式使用后才能够确认

318
00:14:27,980 --> 00:14:31,740
第一季度又恰逢折旧费用集中示范哈

319
00:14:31,740 --> 00:14:33,539
公司因此下调指引

320
00:14:33,539 --> 00:14:37,100
以避免到时候利润端进一步恶化

321
00:14:37,100 --> 00:14:39,659
更深层的问题在于啊

322
00:14:39,659 --> 00:14:42,480
就是算力需求虽然几乎无限

323
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,899
可是电力与数据中心建设是存在硬约束的

324
00:14:46,899 --> 00:14:48,519
华尔街通常呃

325
00:14:48,519 --> 00:14:52,089
根据英伟达配卡量来预测KV的收入

326
00:14:52,089 --> 00:14:55,408
却忽略了COVID是否具备足够的机柜

327
00:14:55,408 --> 00:14:57,559
电力与散热能力

328
00:14:57,559 --> 00:14:58,679
指引下修

329
00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:01,059
本质上就是反映它的基础设施

330
00:15:01,059 --> 00:15:04,019
交付速度落后于拿卡速度了

331
00:15:04,019 --> 00:15:07,460
财报也提及到第三方数据中心项目呃

332
00:15:07,460 --> 00:15:08,899
就是滨州那个数据中心

333
00:15:08,899 --> 00:15:11,720
因为融资与建设问题出现了延误

334
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,000
管理层还强调嗯

335
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,000
自研云软件获得了英伟达的生态认证

336
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,740
并且呢试图将公司从算力包工头

337
00:15:21,740 --> 00:15:25,299
重新定位为高毛利的云服务商

338
00:15:25,299 --> 00:15:30,440
可是呃他的软件收入目前占比非常的低哈

339
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:31,860
几乎可以忽略不计

340
00:15:31,860 --> 00:15:33,109
2026年

341
00:15:33,109 --> 00:15:33,989
他给出的

342
00:15:33,989 --> 00:15:37,269
120亿到130亿美元的营收指引

343
00:15:37,269 --> 00:15:39,950
几乎完全依赖于算力租赁

344
00:15:39,950 --> 00:15:44,299
在软件收入占比突破10%之前

345
00:15:44,299 --> 00:15:48,500
华尔街很难给予他云服务型的这个公司估值呀

346
00:15:48,500 --> 00:15:51,220
所以这更像是长期愿景哈

347
00:15:51,220 --> 00:15:53,299
并非是短期盈利来源

348
00:15:53,299 --> 00:15:55,120
公司CFO表示

349
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,519
今年一季度为利润率底部

350
00:15:57,519 --> 00:15:59,240
未来呢将会逐步改善

351
00:15:59,240 --> 00:15:59,960
并且维持

352
00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:03,980
25%到30%的长期运营利润率

353
00:16:03,980 --> 00:16:05,419
但是对于机构而言

354
00:16:05,419 --> 00:16:08,179
这属于典型的预期管理

355
00:16:08,179 --> 00:16:11,639
如果后续电力或者是冷却建设再次延

356
00:16:11,639 --> 00:16:13,860
文物利润修复逻辑就会失效

357
00:16:13,860 --> 00:16:17,230
而利息与折旧仍处于上升周期

358
00:16:17,230 --> 00:16:20,190
那短期亏损可能会继续扩大

359
00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:20,950
所以呢

360
00:16:20,950 --> 00:16:23,830
尽管管理层在电话会议上

361
00:16:23,830 --> 00:16:27,289
绘声绘色地描绘了理想的AI增长故事

362
00:16:27,289 --> 00:16:29,739
大型投行们呃并不买账哈

363
00:16:29,739 --> 00:16:32,499
仍维持中性偏谨慎的观点

364
00:16:32,499 --> 00:16:33,399
2026年

365
00:16:33,399 --> 00:16:35,600
真正决定KY的股价的

366
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,240
是它的融资成本与执行能力

367
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,100
而并非是来自英伟达认证本身

368
00:16:41,100 --> 00:16:44,519
多邻果四季度业绩超市场预期

369
00:16:44,519 --> 00:16:48,759
但是嗯今年QE于2026全年指引令人失望

370
00:16:48,759 --> 00:16:51,589
遭到华尔街机构下调该股目标价

371
00:16:53,068 --> 00:16:57,940
这只股票是受到AI冲击最严重的软件公司之一

372
00:16:57,940 --> 00:16:59,799
我发现评论区里吧

373
00:16:59,799 --> 00:17:03,429
隔一段时间就会有人问我对这个股票的看法

374
00:17:03,429 --> 00:17:05,109
我的看法就是没有看法

375
00:17:05,109 --> 00:17:07,328
因为对他完全不感兴趣

376
00:17:07,328 --> 00:17:08,828
那现在去抄底

377
00:17:08,828 --> 00:17:09,969
七姐妹不香吗

378
00:17:09,969 --> 00:17:11,949
为什么要浪费时间和金钱

379
00:17:11,949 --> 00:17:17,069
在这一种呃整个往下走的小票身上了是吧行

380
00:17:17,069 --> 00:17:18,730
今天我们就说到这里

381
00:17:18,730 --> 00:17:20,349
这一周大家很辛苦了哈

382
00:17:20,349 --> 00:17:23,220
这的确这个市场波动非常的剧烈

383
00:17:25,839 --> 00:17:27,839
那这个周末我们就好好休息

384
00:17:27,839 --> 00:17:29,839
下次见拜拜

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