【NaNa说美股】20260224这行情头发都秃了！

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哈喽各位新老小伙伴们大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股很久没有出镜了哈

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这个最近天天又是熬夜看盘呃

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发量都已经岌岌可危了

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今天是2月24号周二

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昨天美股抛售之后

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今天如期出现了反弹

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标普500指数最高呢冲到接近6900点

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最近几次的短线节奏都是踩得比较准

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窄幅区间多空切换就像炒饭一样

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要快速的翻炒

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不然的话就容易炒糊了

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QQ也再次反抽测试这条关键半年线阻力

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如果最近的分析对你有一点点帮助的话

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各位大佬与富婆们也可以爆发一下实力

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在留言区里打赏我两块

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以支持我继续熬夜猜盘

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会员朋友们就不用了哈

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你们已经在长期支持我了

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非会员的小伙伴们

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如果觉得有价值

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可以小小的鼓励我一下

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至于这个发量的问题

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我觉得我还是可以再努力抢救一下的

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继续回到今天的盘面

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标普500指数在六千九百十点下方

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市场仍处于覆盖码状态

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这意味着做市商会在价格的疲软的时候卖出

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在价格上涨的时候追涨

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放大价格的双向波动

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市场风险情绪呢有所回暖

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三大股指日内持续震荡上行

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尾盘集体收涨

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受AMD与ma签署重磅长期协议的消息影响

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芯片板块集体走强

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EAMD股价今天盘前一度飙升了14%

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虽然随后回落

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但是收盘仍录得8.8%的涨幅

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股价反弹站上了半年线

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公司与meta达成一份战略协议

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meta呢将在5年内斥资数百亿美元

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采购AAMD的AI芯片

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并且作为核心条款之一

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将分阶段获得最高达到1.6亿股的

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AAMD认股权证

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这是一个非常庞大的数字

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AMD目前总股本大约16.3亿股

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这意味着如果meta行使所有权利的话

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将会持有AMD大约10%的股份

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这笔交易的实质哈就是用股权换订单

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AMD的急需想meta这种级别的大客户

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为他的MI450等产品的商用能力倍数

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营收与现金流

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实现了从二级备胎到核心供应商的地位跨越

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而对于meta而言

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这不仅确保了算力供应的多元化

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降低了对英伟达的单一依赖

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更通过认股权证的对冲了采购成本

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如果AMD未来股价上涨的话

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那么meta在股票上的收益哈

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实际上就削减了他去买这个AMD芯片的支出

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从深层逻辑看

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这也反映出AMD与英伟达在定价权上的本质差异

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英伟达凭借自身极强的现金流和生态护城河呢

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拥有绝对的话语权和定价权

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客户们得排队预付现金等着买

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而AMD仍处于强这个市场份额的阶段

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必须利用资本市场的估值溢价

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来补贴它的产业竞争

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认股权证本质上是一种风险对冲工具

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旨在降低客户的切换风险

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将双方的捆绑为利益共同体

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所以这是一场呃AMD出让未来股权

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meta呢出让未来现金的豪赌哈

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AAMD赢得了生存空间与战略地位

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呃meta呢赢得了议价权

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以供应链的安全呃

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然而如果这个未来AMD股价承压的话

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那大的权证规模也将会转化为

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沉重的股权稀释压力

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毕竟AMD还与OpenAI

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也签署了一份类似四的这个长期协议嘛

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反正在我看来

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这也就相当于是打价格战了嗯

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费城半导体指数最近走势大幅跑赢纳指

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因为芯片制造商被视为AI基础设施

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建设的核心受益者

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无论AI怎么重塑各行各业的商业模式

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对芯片的需求都会持续增长

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这为半导体行业提供了坚实的盈利前景

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这张图表显示

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每个看到这张图表的交易员都会产生一个疑问

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并且重新带领那只走牛呢

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这也是多空当下最大的分歧

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从盘面上来看

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没有任何明确的信号

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老实说我也很纠结啦

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大家都很纠结

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不然的话

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那些机构本

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最近就不会买入那么多的对冲头寸了

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大家其实都在等嗯

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英伟达的季候表现就尤为重要了

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如果英伟达股价的财报后下跌啊

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那就很清楚

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七巨头起不来

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大盘要补跌

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若是因为打财报后股价上天呢

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那就可能推动标普500指数冲上7100

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7200点了

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黄金与与白银在连续4日上涨之后回落

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中东局势现在有点扑朔迷离

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一方面

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伊朗副外长表示

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伊朗已经做好与美方尽快达成协议的准备

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伊朗外长也说呃

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希望在最短时间内与美国达成公平协议

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可是另一方面

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有12架美军F22战斗机从英国起飞

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飞往以色列

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除了其中一架因为技术问题返回之外呢

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其余11架战斗机当天就抵达了以色列

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并且被部署在以南部的一个呃以空军基地

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这么多飞机大炮都扎堆的完

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中东那边赶总不可能是为了开春晚吧

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这军费每天都在燃烧哈

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所谓无利不起早嘛

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所以呢中东那边到底是个什么情况

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这谈判到底是烟雾弹呢

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还是真的

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这两天我估计就得有个眉目出来了哈

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比特币日内一度跌到6.2万美元

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2月累计跌幅约19%

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创下自2022年6月以来最糟糕单月表现

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币圈的熊市也不知道什么时候是个头

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个股与板块方面

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IGB今天出现了反弹

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美股灭霸ENTROPIK举办简报会

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推出了十种供企业客户将AI技术嗯

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接入工作流的新方式

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涵盖了股票研究

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投资银行

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财富管理等多个领域

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这次发布会没有引发新一轮抛售

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是因为一堆的ENTROPI克受害股们就集体亮相了

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这次简报会展现打不过就加入的决心

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ONTOBY克高管呢也在会议上强调了

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合作而非破坏

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反正这一系列合作似乎呃

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缓解了市场对于AI颠覆的担忧

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股有软件股

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今天多数反弹

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fax seter股价反弹了5.9%

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CIM涨了4%

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微软反弹了1.2%哈

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这暂时多头动能还是很弱

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连5日均线都没能够摸到

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不过只要华尔街嗯

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真的要将合作叙事取代之前的颠覆叙事的话

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那微软股价还有继续反弹的希望

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闪迪股价下跌

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知名做空机构香媛在X平台上公开宣布

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正在做空该股

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并且称当前存储芯片市场繁荣为供应幻象

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在推文中

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香远称

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存储芯片本质上还是周期性的大宗商品

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并不具备像英伟达那样的强大护城河

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市场呢却按照英伟达的逻辑来给闪迪定价

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这个在08年

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2012年和2018年都被证明

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事后使错觉

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所谓的这次不一样

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从来没有成真过嗯韩国三星历来重份额轻利润

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一旦真的启动价格战的话

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那纯粹的存储厂商们就难以招架

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如今三星不仅宣称要维持高利润率

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还要将进产能转向高端SSD市场

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直接威胁到了闪迪核心客户

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当前所谓的供应紧张

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不过是阶段性良率问题造成的幻象

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而随着远超2018年峰值的产能释放

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周期回落

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几乎是时间问题

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呃等到财报确认拐点的时候啊

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股价往往早就已经提前反映了

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在我看来

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SNDK当前的股价当然是溢价很高了是吧

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呃预期拉的很满

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但是股价是否见顶呢

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并不是一份想当然的做空报告就能够决定的哈

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主要还是取决于软件行业的末日叙事

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何时能够出现转变

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那个时候抱团资金就会从存储板块中流出

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所以呃这个SNDK如果股价继续下跌的话

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软件股就可能真的要反弹了

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PAPO股价盘中大部分时间低位波动

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尾盘最后半小时

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彭博士翻出消息说

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stripe有意收购PAYPAL的全部或部分业务

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股价就直线飙升了6.7%

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哎呀我觉得趁着有人要赶紧把自己卖了吧

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不然的话真的变成老僵尸了呀

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这股价都已经跌了5年了哈

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对这公司管理层真的是非常非常的失望

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stripe目前呢估值大约为1590亿美元

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远超PAYPAL43000000000美元的市值

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从规模角度来看

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这笔交易还是可行的

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00:10:27,279 --> 00:10:30,360
嘉德宝home depool盘前呢公布财报

212
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,080
Q4营收同比下滑3.8%

213
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,539
调整后每股收益2.72美元

214
00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:37,759
同比呢也下滑了13%

215
00:10:37,759 --> 00:10:40,779
但是都超出市场预期嗯

216
00:10:40,779 --> 00:10:46,059
主要受益于专业承包商的弹性需求和预算紧张

217
00:10:46,059 --> 00:10:48,549
客户的小型维修需求

218
00:10:48,549 --> 00:10:51,450
公司才维持了2026财年

219
00:10:51,450 --> 00:10:55,659
可比销售额与去年同期持平倒增长2%

220
00:10:55,659 --> 00:10:58,220
调整后每股收益与去年持平

221
00:10:58,220 --> 00:11:00,279
到增长4%的预期

222
00:11:00,279 --> 00:11:02,419
股价日内冲高回落

223
00:11:02,419 --> 00:11:04,419
日内涨幅呢收窄了一半

224
00:11:04,419 --> 00:11:05,220
可以了哈

225
00:11:05,220 --> 00:11:09,190
这个嗯业绩与营收都双双下滑呢

226
00:11:09,190 --> 00:11:10,940
还能够股价上涨

227
00:11:10,940 --> 00:11:14,980
主要竞争对手老市公司将在一天后也公布财报

228
00:11:14,980 --> 00:11:18,009
股价今天嗯已经上涨了1.54%

229
00:11:18,009 --> 00:11:19,929
苹果今天股价发力

230
00:11:19,929 --> 00:11:24,870
公司宣布将在美国休斯顿呃扩大工厂运营规模

231
00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:29,950
这标志着Mark mini的未来生产将会首次移到美国

232
00:11:29,950 --> 00:11:33,570
同时呢公司2026年将会采购超过1亿片

233
00:11:33,570 --> 00:11:37,589
台积电亚历山大工厂所生产的先进芯片

234
00:11:37,589 --> 00:11:41,450
这比起2025年来是有了显著的增长

235
00:11:41,450 --> 00:11:45,649
此外苹果今天线上还召开了年度股东大会

236
00:11:45,649 --> 00:11:48,389
通过了最新高管薪酬方案

237
00:11:48,389 --> 00:11:51,590
否决对在华业务审计的提案

238
00:11:51,590 --> 00:11:54,078
并且计划每年提高股息

239
00:11:55,318 --> 00:11:57,549
他才是真正的避险股

240
00:11:57,549 --> 00:12:02,149
AES发电公司签署了为期20年的购电协议

241
00:12:02,149 --> 00:12:05,440
将为谷歌在德州的数据中心供电

242
00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:06,740
这么大的利好

243
00:12:06,740 --> 00:12:08,100
股价却没有大涨

244
00:12:08,100 --> 00:12:11,039
也许是因为预期早就已经被透支了

245
00:12:11,039 --> 00:12:14,370
因为最近资金为避险哈

246
00:12:14,370 --> 00:12:16,250
持续流入公用事业板块

247
00:12:16,250 --> 00:12:18,500
股价涨幅已经过高了

248
00:12:18,500 --> 00:12:21,840
另外呢公司将于2月27号发布财报

249
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:22,559
财报前

250
00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:23,460
理性的资金

251
00:12:23,460 --> 00:12:26,529
不会仅因为一个利好消息就盲目冲入

252
00:12:26,529 --> 00:12:28,129
它的核心价值

253
00:12:28,129 --> 00:12:31,850
还是在于股息和长期现金流的确定性

254
00:12:31,850 --> 00:12:35,289
美国私人信贷巨头这个蓝猫头鹰

255
00:12:35,289 --> 00:12:37,568
今天股价呢低开高走

256
00:12:37,568 --> 00:12:38,969
早盘一度承压

257
00:12:38,969 --> 00:12:42,200
但是午盘过后出现了资金承接

258
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,440
德银分析师将该股品级从买入下调到持有目标

259
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,490
股价从15美元大幅下调到十美元

260
00:12:49,490 --> 00:12:51,330
从这股价表现来看

261
00:12:51,330 --> 00:12:53,789
市场早就已经提前反映了风险

262
00:12:53,789 --> 00:12:55,549
布鲁奥资本呃

263
00:12:55,549 --> 00:12:58,110
这个股价呢在过去12个月内

264
00:12:58,110 --> 00:13:00,039
已经累跌了50%

265
00:13:00,039 --> 00:13:04,000
就今年以来就已经下跌了约27%

266
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,700
这不仅是个股问题哈

267
00:13:05,700 --> 00:13:09,589
更是整个私人信贷板块估值回调的一部分

268
00:13:09,589 --> 00:13:13,788
市场呢担心信贷行业可能因为对软件公司贷

269
00:13:13,788 --> 00:13:16,240
款的风险敞口而出现裂痕

270
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,019
而且在AI投资热潮之下

271
00:13:19,019 --> 00:13:22,960
许多数据中心以较高估值和激进增长

272
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,399
假设融资扩张嗯

273
00:13:25,399 --> 00:13:27,919
很多都是借那个私人信贷的钱

274
00:13:27,919 --> 00:13:30,840
一旦AI相关资本开支放缓

275
00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,620
或者嗯这些数据中心的执行风险

276
00:13:35,620 --> 00:13:37,679
盈利兑现不及预期

277
00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:39,960
那么这些现金流承压的公司

278
00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,490
可能就会首先影响到贷款回收质量

279
00:13:43,490 --> 00:13:44,389
此外呢

280
00:13:44,389 --> 00:13:48,590
高利率环境持续时间超出了此前市场预期

281
00:13:48,590 --> 00:13:50,509
企业融资成本居高不下

282
00:13:50,509 --> 00:13:52,379
叠加经济增速放缓

283
00:13:52,379 --> 00:13:55,639
私人信贷的违约率也存在抬升的风险

284
00:13:55,639 --> 00:13:56,360
生产担心

285
00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:01,570
这个过去几年快速扩张的影子银行体系哈

286
00:14:01,570 --> 00:14:04,250
是否正在接近周期拐点

287
00:14:04,250 --> 00:14:05,330
德银认为

288
00:14:05,330 --> 00:14:06,789
资产估值承压

289
00:14:06,789 --> 00:14:08,220
交易活动放缓

290
00:14:08,220 --> 00:14:11,659
BLOL的管理费及相关收入增长啊

291
00:14:11,659 --> 00:14:13,860
可能会显著的降速

292
00:14:13,860 --> 00:14:16,860
这一波下跌已经不只是情绪问题了

293
00:14:16,860 --> 00:14:18,720
而是市场的重新评估

294
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,109
增长确定性

295
00:14:20,109 --> 00:14:24,269
私人信贷过去几年其实太顺风顺水了哈

296
00:14:24,269 --> 00:14:27,700
现在才开始面对真正的压力测试

297
00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:29,940
如果信用风险可控的话

298
00:14:29,940 --> 00:14:32,899
那这里可能是估值修复的区间

299
00:14:32,899 --> 00:14:35,980
但若是违约周期真正开启

300
00:14:35,980 --> 00:14:39,730
那私人信贷板块可能还没有完全释放压力

301
00:14:39,730 --> 00:14:42,330
今天美东时间晚上九点

302
00:14:44,769 --> 00:14:48,860
众议院议事厅发表国情资本演讲

303
00:14:48,860 --> 00:14:50,700
业内人士普遍预计

304
00:14:50,700 --> 00:14:52,940
哈川普将会利用这次演讲的机会

305
00:14:52,940 --> 00:14:56,318
向公众宣传美国经济的良好形势

306
00:14:56,318 --> 00:14:59,198
并且呢公布新的减税措施

307
00:14:59,198 --> 00:15:00,918
覆盖个人和企业

308
00:15:00,918 --> 00:15:05,080
就嗯总体应该是给大家打鸡血的

309
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,419
所以感兴趣的朋友们可以听一听

310
00:15:07,419 --> 00:15:09,500
嗯那我们明天见拜拜

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