BV1UwV36mE4i · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:03,399 --> 00:00:04,019 大家好 2 00:00:04,019 --> 00:00:06,099 今天是5月29号星期五 3 00:00:06,099 --> 00:00:08,640 我们继续分析美股好 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,189 我们看一下今天市场的表现 5 00:00:11,189 --> 00:00:14,949 纳指期货今天维持了弱势的上涨态势 6 00:00:14,949 --> 00:00:18,190 我看到多头的动能呢在逐渐的变弱哈 7 00:00:18,190 --> 00:00:22,030 但是呢空头似乎也没有使劲反攻啊 8 00:00:22,030 --> 00:00:22,750 这样的话 9 00:00:22,750 --> 00:00:27,149 我们现在呢也只能先假设多头的趋势还在哈 10 00:00:27,149 --> 00:00:28,690 还不能猜反转 11 00:00:28,690 --> 00:00:31,949 我们看一下15分钟图的感觉啊 12 00:00:31,949 --> 00:00:35,729 你看他这个15分钟图就是在这片啊横盘对吧 13 00:00:35,729 --> 00:00:37,329 在这里横盘 14 00:00:37,329 --> 00:00:38,969 你说这横盘是顶吧 15 00:00:38,969 --> 00:00:40,630 其实很难猜啊 16 00:00:40,630 --> 00:00:41,250 很难猜 17 00:00:41,250 --> 00:00:42,299 那就不是 18 00:00:42,299 --> 00:00:44,100 那我们非要有结论的话 19 00:00:44,100 --> 00:00:45,600 那就是还不是顶 20 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,679 没有看到顶的样子是吧 21 00:00:47,679 --> 00:00:50,759 你看过程中有很多这种小横盘 22 00:00:50,759 --> 00:00:52,560 那什么时候见顶啊 23 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,039 随时啊 24 00:00:54,039 --> 00:00:58,020 也就是说我们这个鼎啊指的是呃一波回撤哈 25 00:00:58,020 --> 00:00:59,399 明显的回撤那个顶 26 00:00:59,399 --> 00:01:01,000 而不是熊市哈 27 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,420 我们再感受一下日线 28 00:01:04,069 --> 00:01:06,879 这个K线明显越来越小哈 29 00:01:07,159 --> 00:01:10,239 这个是多头动能在减弱的一个征兆啊 30 00:01:10,239 --> 00:01:12,340 所以多头一定要提高警惕 31 00:01:12,340 --> 00:01:14,000 我们不是死多头哈 32 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:15,870 我们是波段交易的 33 00:01:15,870 --> 00:01:19,189 波段交易的手法好 34 00:01:19,189 --> 00:01:20,448 我们看一下罗素 35 00:01:20,448 --> 00:01:23,748 你看罗素他在这个空中飘着这几根黑线 36 00:01:23,748 --> 00:01:26,649 其实就是多头动能在变弱的一些征兆 37 00:01:26,649 --> 00:01:29,609 他的这个弱势要比纳指要明显 38 00:01:31,989 --> 00:01:34,239 我们看一下15分钟图 39 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,939 但你说这个横盘它是顶吗 40 00:01:36,939 --> 00:01:38,500 就像我们所说的哈 41 00:01:38,500 --> 00:01:40,140 其实特别难以判断哈 42 00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:42,420 所以到时候可以在这片啊关注哈 43 00:01:42,420 --> 00:01:43,709 空头抛盘的力度 44 00:01:43,709 --> 00:01:47,849 如果下周早些时候有强劲的空头的出现啊 45 00:01:47,849 --> 00:01:50,430 那基本上就要给更大的回撤了 46 00:01:50,430 --> 00:01:51,870 我们再看一下日线 47 00:01:53,109 --> 00:01:54,230 有人说这也黑继续涨 48 00:01:54,230 --> 00:01:55,090 是的啊 49 00:01:55,090 --> 00:01:57,480 我们现在没有猜熊市哈 50 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,420 好我们再观察一下吧 51 00:01:59,420 --> 00:02:03,480 今天周五是没有给出可靠的一个方向哈 52 00:02:04,879 --> 00:02:09,370 嗯道指道指人家还收出阳线的 53 00:02:09,370 --> 00:02:11,250 主要是因为他刚创了新高哈 54 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:14,229 他没有想调回来对吧 55 00:02:14,229 --> 00:02:17,150 所以有可能他要继续涨 56 00:02:18,900 --> 00:02:20,860 我们看一下标普哎 57 00:02:20,860 --> 00:02:22,979 标普和纳指是类似哈 58 00:02:22,979 --> 00:02:25,229 简单看一下15分钟啊 59 00:02:25,229 --> 00:02:25,870 他在这 60 00:02:25,870 --> 00:02:27,289 他在这里横着哈 61 00:02:27,289 --> 00:02:28,590 所以要提防啊 62 00:02:28,590 --> 00:02:30,900 要提高警惕了 63 00:02:31,699 --> 00:02:35,780 好我们看到这几个指数其实是分化的哈 64 00:02:35,780 --> 00:02:38,620 表明交易的难度开始增加 65 00:02:38,620 --> 00:02:41,620 不再是纯的一边长的那种走法 66 00:02:42,900 --> 00:02:45,099 我们看一下黄金 67 00:02:45,659 --> 00:02:47,419 昨天我们跟进黄金啊 68 00:02:47,419 --> 00:02:49,909 是发现这里有止跌K线是吧 69 00:02:50,110 --> 00:02:52,770 我们把这个区域呢当做一个重要的支撑区 70 00:02:52,770 --> 00:02:55,629 那么今天呢多特就给了一根阳线哈 71 00:02:55,629 --> 00:02:58,870 但是多头在上行过程中还会遇到阻力 72 00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:02,289 因此今天的日线K线有一定的上影线 73 00:03:02,289 --> 00:03:06,090 我看一看15分钟图唉 74 00:03:06,090 --> 00:03:08,599 延续了昨天的涨势啊 75 00:03:08,599 --> 00:03:10,159 有回调的一个需求 76 00:03:10,159 --> 00:03:13,819 估计呢周一呢还会有延续回调的这种态势 77 00:03:13,819 --> 00:03:15,310 稍微震一震 78 00:03:15,310 --> 00:03:17,949 主要是这片儿呢又变成了支撑位 79 00:03:17,949 --> 00:03:20,840 对吧好 80 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,879 这是黄锦 81 00:03:24,759 --> 00:03:28,319 好我们看一下市场整体分布的情况 82 00:03:31,139 --> 00:03:35,580 今天的美股呢软件基础设施领域涨幅非常明显 83 00:03:36,659 --> 00:03:39,430 应用软件也是非常明显对吧 84 00:03:39,430 --> 00:03:41,289 像半导体是微微的波动哈 85 00:03:41,289 --> 00:03:42,930 微跌0.02% 86 00:03:42,930 --> 00:03:46,069 互联网下跌了一点点2%左右 87 00:03:46,189 --> 00:03:50,039 其他行业呢都是微涨或微跌的状态啊 88 00:03:50,039 --> 00:03:52,319 和我们的大盘的这个表现类似 89 00:03:52,319 --> 00:03:55,250 我们看一下领涨的行业哈 90 00:03:55,409 --> 00:03:57,409 这个robin hood 91 00:03:57,409 --> 00:03:59,069 昨天我们提了一下哈 92 00:03:59,069 --> 00:04:01,509 这是WSB热门概念 93 00:04:01,509 --> 00:04:03,210 我们看一眼 94 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,120 正如我们所说的哈 95 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:11,870 昨天的日线的这个大阳线是一个止跌确认信号 96 00:04:11,870 --> 00:04:14,229 它是向多头发出来指令 97 00:04:14,229 --> 00:04:15,430 应该做多的信号 98 00:04:15,430 --> 00:04:18,009 K线今天呢多头就没有犹豫 99 00:04:18,009 --> 00:04:19,579 直接再次拉涨 100 00:04:19,579 --> 00:04:22,699 直勾勾的一根光头的大阳线 101 00:04:22,699 --> 00:04:27,699 我们感受一下15分钟的情况是吧 102 00:04:27,699 --> 00:04:30,740 昨天呢是在这不得看啊 103 00:04:30,740 --> 00:04:32,399 昨天是这里拉上来 104 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:35,959 大阳线 105 00:04:35,959 --> 00:04:39,139 大阳线大阳线一直到尾盘还是大阳线啊 106 00:04:39,139 --> 00:04:40,680 中间有一些小回调 107 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,620 这就是非常强势的多头 108 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,288 好一对吧 109 00:04:46,288 --> 00:04:49,288 这是一个相对的一个低低低点哈 110 00:04:49,288 --> 00:04:51,088 一个底部区域哈 111 00:04:51,088 --> 00:04:52,629 今天是领涨 112 00:04:52,629 --> 00:04:55,064 上涨了11% 113 00:04:57,939 --> 00:04:58,459 好 114 00:04:59,740 --> 00:05:02,180 那我们今我们这个计算机硬件 115 00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:03,779 这个又是大暴涨啊 116 00:05:03,779 --> 00:05:05,860 谁也戴尔科技 117 00:05:05,860 --> 00:05:08,000 亿邦国际和超威电脑 118 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:08,720 亿邦国际 119 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,009 我记得在45年前我们跟进过哈 120 00:05:11,009 --> 00:05:13,410 那我们近两年跟进的主要还是 121 00:05:13,410 --> 00:05:15,089 戴尔科技和超威电脑 122 00:05:15,089 --> 00:05:20,350 我们看一下今天的戴尔电脑是超级大暴涨 123 00:05:20,350 --> 00:05:21,110 疯狂吧 124 00:05:22,110 --> 00:05:25,189 但是有人说这位置还能做多吗 125 00:05:25,649 --> 00:05:28,589 这个这问题就比较艰难了哈 126 00:05:28,589 --> 00:05:31,110 你像刚才robin hood在那儿 127 00:05:31,110 --> 00:05:31,670 在底下 128 00:05:31,670 --> 00:05:32,550 这有两根阳线 129 00:05:32,550 --> 00:05:34,949 你进进我觉得会好一点 130 00:05:34,949 --> 00:05:38,509 但是你像这个啊这个超级大暴涨 131 00:05:38,509 --> 00:05:40,430 你说你做还是不做呢 132 00:05:40,430 --> 00:05:43,009 我是指没有仓位的朋友 133 00:05:43,170 --> 00:05:45,149 我有点倾向于不做哈 134 00:05:45,149 --> 00:05:47,430 不再在这儿再去追高了啊 135 00:05:47,430 --> 00:05:49,189 如果你是之前看我们节目 136 00:05:49,189 --> 00:05:51,550 说我们这里有一个大型的头肩底 137 00:05:51,550 --> 00:05:52,389 在这些区域 138 00:05:52,389 --> 00:05:53,350 在这些区域做多 139 00:05:53,350 --> 00:05:54,980 我觉得可以哈 140 00:05:54,980 --> 00:06:01,029 但是周五这天这个情况不容易再去做多了哈 141 00:06:01,029 --> 00:06:02,470 因为涨幅巨大哈 142 00:06:02,470 --> 00:06:03,329 32% 143 00:06:03,329 --> 00:06:05,149 有人说你不是说不猜顶吗 144 00:06:05,149 --> 00:06:07,050 我们不是僵化的 145 00:06:07,050 --> 00:06:07,910 明白吧 146 00:06:07,910 --> 00:06:11,490 他也要根据情况来判断一下风险的可能性是吧 147 00:06:11,490 --> 00:06:13,990 如果感觉风险会逐渐增加的话 148 00:06:13,990 --> 00:06:17,480 可能要降低对他的一个预期 149 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,360 但如果你是日内交易者 150 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,600 你勇敢的在15分钟图上这个位置进场的话 151 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:24,199 没问题 152 00:06:24,199 --> 00:06:27,269 止损放在附近就可以了好吧 153 00:06:28,509 --> 00:06:31,550 那至于后续呢你也要看下一个交易日啊 154 00:06:31,550 --> 00:06:34,889 看能不能给出一些拉升回调止跌的动作再去做 155 00:06:34,889 --> 00:06:37,649 否则我个人不倾向于没有仓位的 156 00:06:37,649 --> 00:06:40,178 站在这里再去追哈 157 00:06:40,738 --> 00:06:42,819 我们应该再画一个陡峭的趋势线 158 00:06:44,098 --> 00:06:45,978 有人说一切皆有可能 159 00:06:45,978 --> 00:06:48,620 是的确实也可以继续涨哈 160 00:06:48,620 --> 00:06:49,959 因为按照顺势思维 161 00:06:49,959 --> 00:06:51,639 这是非常强势的表现 162 00:06:51,639 --> 00:06:54,819 我们没有按照衰减性的表现来预测哈 163 00:06:54,819 --> 00:06:58,269 但是偶尔呢我们也要啊 164 00:06:58,269 --> 00:07:00,430 在在大脑里啊拉锯一下啊 165 00:07:00,430 --> 00:07:02,910 到底是衰竭性的还是继续强势的拉升 166 00:07:02,910 --> 00:07:05,459 也多少要思考一下是吧 167 00:07:05,459 --> 00:07:07,459 因为风控永远都是第一位的 168 00:07:10,459 --> 00:07:13,339 好有人说非得要去追那个 169 00:07:13,339 --> 00:07:15,100 那你自己决定啊 170 00:07:15,100 --> 00:07:16,019 不关我事 171 00:07:16,019 --> 00:07:19,939 我们看另外一个是这个超威电脑柴油建档 172 00:07:19,939 --> 00:07:21,959 这个我们也说要看涨对吧 173 00:07:21,959 --> 00:07:23,959 我们从下边这些区域就开始画 174 00:07:23,959 --> 00:07:26,370 说挖掘250%的利润空间 175 00:07:26,370 --> 00:07:28,689 你看他已经起飞了这么几根K线了 176 00:07:28,689 --> 00:07:30,689 我们拉近镜头看一下 177 00:07:30,689 --> 00:07:32,529 哎这里有个回撤 178 00:07:32,529 --> 00:07:34,439 指定阳线后边做多 179 00:07:34,439 --> 00:07:37,480 大阳线后边做多做多做多 180 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,079 今天再次天空高开拉升是吧 181 00:07:41,079 --> 00:07:42,699 还是大洋气啊 182 00:07:42,699 --> 00:07:46,678 我说他有可能先摸到58~60这一代哈 183 00:07:46,678 --> 00:07:48,899 哎这是近期中性的一个目标啊 184 00:07:48,899 --> 00:07:50,319 所以他能不能直接上去 185 00:07:50,319 --> 00:07:53,120 我们说一切皆有可能对吧 186 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:54,220 你看那戴尔 187 00:07:54,220 --> 00:07:57,709 包括他自己也是有很多直播的波段啊 188 00:07:58,029 --> 00:08:00,509 保不齐这次也是直勾勾的继续涨 189 00:08:00,509 --> 00:08:01,790 这就不知道了哈 190 00:08:01,790 --> 00:08:02,829 我们要眼见为实 191 00:08:02,829 --> 00:08:07,139 但整体的趋势性还是比较健康的好 192 00:08:08,899 --> 00:08:09,899 那我们看一下老朋友 193 00:08:09,899 --> 00:08:13,160 一般国际是什么什么鬼好 194 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,420 一般国际之前跟进过哈 195 00:08:15,420 --> 00:08:16,519 但是算了啊 196 00:08:16,519 --> 00:08:18,879 拜拜不好啊 197 00:08:20,620 --> 00:08:24,420 好那么接下来的一个AI应用软件股 198 00:08:24,420 --> 00:08:26,139 有一个老朋友ServiceNow 199 00:08:26,139 --> 00:08:28,160 我们看一下surface now 200 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,399 应该是巴菲特入股那个吧 201 00:08:30,399 --> 00:08:35,818 都忘了这个图之前啊 202 00:08:35,818 --> 00:08:36,698 忘了哈 203 00:08:36,698 --> 00:08:38,479 这个图之前走过牛市哈 204 00:08:38,479 --> 00:08:39,558 后边我没有跟进 205 00:08:39,558 --> 00:08:40,639 因为他没走牛市 206 00:08:40,639 --> 00:08:43,328 你看这是日线图哎 207 00:08:43,328 --> 00:08:45,149 近期如果真的要回归的话 208 00:08:45,149 --> 00:08:46,940 那我们要研究一下啊 209 00:08:46,940 --> 00:08:49,039 我们把下跌趋势线一画诶 210 00:08:49,039 --> 00:08:51,940 清晰上涨趋势线一画诶 211 00:08:51,940 --> 00:08:54,958 清晰大概在这种阻力区 212 00:08:54,958 --> 00:08:57,918 我们画就当前就是阻力区 213 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:00,399 也大概也就这样啊 214 00:09:00,399 --> 00:09:01,840 再画一个吧 215 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:04,659 好咱们先画这好吧 216 00:09:04,659 --> 00:09:06,840 那这样的话理论上应该做多啊 217 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:08,120 理论上应该做多 218 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:09,360 继续做多 219 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,700 有人说不敢做就不要做哈 220 00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:12,399 好了 221 00:09:12,399 --> 00:09:13,779 这是应用软件类的啊 222 00:09:13,779 --> 00:09:16,240 他这个跌势呢跟微软有类似之处哈 223 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,289 只不过它是小盘股 224 00:09:18,289 --> 00:09:20,669 中小盘股比微软跌得更深啊 225 00:09:20,669 --> 00:09:22,110 幅波幅更大 226 00:09:22,110 --> 00:09:23,679 更加巨大 227 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:24,759 所以你要做的话 228 00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:26,340 只能更小的仓位才能做啊 229 00:09:26,340 --> 00:09:29,440 否则不建议去做这种暴涨暴跌 230 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,720 但是理论上应该看涨好 231 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:33,879 这是ServiceNow 232 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:36,320 还有啥来着呀 233 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:37,639 好这篇儿呢 234 00:09:37,639 --> 00:09:38,919 这篇就没了哈 235 00:09:38,919 --> 00:09:41,539 我们回到我们的龙头股列表 236 00:09:42,539 --> 00:09:46,139 我们看一下我们的PATTIER 237 00:09:47,340 --> 00:09:52,169 它的走势和我们的呃ring hood是有相似之处啊 238 00:09:52,169 --> 00:09:54,599 我指的是周四和周五这两天 239 00:09:54,599 --> 00:09:58,239 那么大阳线今天是还是大阳线 240 00:09:58,239 --> 00:10:00,769 今天是跳空高开 241 00:10:00,769 --> 00:10:04,159 然后急速拉升到这个阻力区附近哈 242 00:10:04,159 --> 00:10:05,399 说还可以涨吗 243 00:10:05,399 --> 00:10:07,480 大家可以看它的历史对吧 244 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,850 这东西涨的概率高哈 245 00:10:09,850 --> 00:10:11,029 是牛股的 246 00:10:11,029 --> 00:10:13,610 再是牛股的概率还是更高一点 247 00:10:13,610 --> 00:10:16,789 我们看一下它的15分钟图表嗯 248 00:10:16,789 --> 00:10:18,649 今天跳空高开之后直接拉屎 249 00:10:18,649 --> 00:10:20,659 拉离这个位置直接拉升 250 00:10:20,659 --> 00:10:23,340 正如我们昨天所讨论的讨论的啥 251 00:10:23,340 --> 00:10:25,220 就说有时市场不给你回调啊 252 00:10:25,220 --> 00:10:26,509 直接就给你弄上去 253 00:10:26,509 --> 00:10:28,690 当然也有一些日内回调的情况 254 00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:31,629 比如刚才有个图ruby hold就有一个15分钟 255 00:10:31,629 --> 00:10:32,309 然后回调一下 256 00:10:32,309 --> 00:10:33,549 给你个上车机会啊 257 00:10:33,549 --> 00:10:35,620 你看这图没有给上车机会 258 00:10:35,620 --> 00:10:37,600 你要么在中午下午盘进场 259 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,700 要么反正上午没什么机会 260 00:10:39,700 --> 00:10:41,730 你只能追进去是吧 261 00:10:41,730 --> 00:10:44,389 说后期还有可能这样吧 262 00:10:44,789 --> 00:10:46,190 一切皆有可能 263 00:10:46,190 --> 00:10:47,669 我们再看一下日线 264 00:10:47,669 --> 00:10:49,009 看到这么大的阳线 265 00:10:49,009 --> 00:10:50,389 很多资金看到之后 266 00:10:50,389 --> 00:10:52,609 他都会直接抢往上涨 267 00:10:52,928 --> 00:10:56,129 他就不会愿意再给你一个回调了哈 268 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,639 好这是PENTER 269 00:10:59,639 --> 00:11:02,089 另外一个软件股是谁呀 270 00:11:02,089 --> 00:11:04,649 Crowd strike c r w d 271 00:11:04,649 --> 00:11:07,559 这个图我们画好了下跌趋势线 272 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,559 画好了这些直接去做多 273 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,059 有这图还能做多吗 274 00:11:11,059 --> 00:11:14,600 能有人说按照我的理论永远能做多 275 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,019 那不能这么说哈 276 00:11:16,019 --> 00:11:17,019 你得看一看 277 00:11:17,019 --> 00:11:20,740 像刚才戴尔那个我就多少风控意识会更强一些 278 00:11:20,740 --> 00:11:24,509 像这个的话也应该提高一下防控意识 279 00:11:24,509 --> 00:11:27,450 但是比戴尔会好好一点哈 280 00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:28,129 有人说啊 281 00:11:28,129 --> 00:11:29,009 这是衰竭性的呀 282 00:11:29,009 --> 00:11:32,039 最终得那啥最终的一根K线 283 00:11:32,039 --> 00:11:33,399 这是逆势思维哈 284 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:35,019 一定要精准的定位 285 00:11:35,019 --> 00:11:37,009 分析出来你到底是什么思维 286 00:11:37,009 --> 00:11:38,289 按照顺势思维的话 287 00:11:38,289 --> 00:11:40,269 我们看到是光头光脚的大阳线 288 00:11:40,269 --> 00:11:43,639 没有后续K线之前是不能裁定的 289 00:11:43,639 --> 00:11:45,379 我们看下15分钟图 290 00:11:45,379 --> 00:11:46,879 因为人家大师告诉你的 291 00:11:46,879 --> 00:11:49,849 就是说有60%的概率是低 292 00:11:49,849 --> 00:11:50,808 能明白吧 293 00:11:50,808 --> 00:11:53,639 逆势交易者只有40%的胜率 294 00:11:53,639 --> 00:11:57,000 人家没有说百分之百是衰竭性的大K线哈 295 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,078 听听懂那个人家的概率 296 00:12:00,078 --> 00:12:03,019 所以说我们直接就选择顺势方向概率更高 297 00:12:03,019 --> 00:12:04,198 事实上也是如此 298 00:12:04,198 --> 00:12:07,379 我们看到这15分钟图直接上来之后震荡上行 299 00:12:07,379 --> 00:12:08,690 到尾盘还在拉涨 300 00:12:08,690 --> 00:12:10,690 你说他是出货吗 301 00:12:10,850 --> 00:12:12,049 很显然不是哈 302 00:12:13,169 --> 00:12:14,049 很显然不是的 303 00:12:14,049 --> 00:12:14,529 概率更高 304 00:12:14,529 --> 00:12:16,190 有60%的概率继续涨 305 00:12:16,190 --> 00:12:19,799 有40%的概率是衰竭性的 306 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:21,740 所以我们说顺势的概率更高 307 00:12:21,740 --> 00:12:25,159 应该做啥做多说不敢做 308 00:12:25,159 --> 00:12:26,159 不敢做就算了哈 309 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,349 这自己决定哈 310 00:12:29,990 --> 00:12:31,710 我们之前跟进过DOKO 311 00:12:31,710 --> 00:12:34,830 DOKO和刚才有个图类似哈 312 00:12:34,830 --> 00:12:36,029 也走了熊市 313 00:12:36,029 --> 00:12:37,250 我们就没有跟进 314 00:12:37,250 --> 00:12:39,269 这也是曾经之前的牛股哈 315 00:12:39,269 --> 00:12:40,710 在互联网泡沫时 316 00:12:40,710 --> 00:12:43,068 在这个超级放水大周期的时候 317 00:12:43,068 --> 00:12:44,469 很多人很喜欢他 318 00:12:44,469 --> 00:12:47,068 那么近期看起来更像是一个双重大底哈 319 00:12:47,068 --> 00:12:50,669 理论上会有结构性的局部波段交易机会 320 00:12:50,830 --> 00:12:54,179 但是也需要你会做不断交易才行 321 00:12:54,179 --> 00:12:55,940 理论上是做多的位置 322 00:12:55,940 --> 00:13:00,340 我们看到止跌测试止跌止跌止跌止跌 323 00:13:00,340 --> 00:13:03,820 好市场尝试摆脱这个平台区域啊 324 00:13:03,820 --> 00:13:04,539 做啥呀 325 00:13:04,539 --> 00:13:06,720 也就是景线做多 326 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,200 我们看到周五那天是一个非常漂亮的阳线哈 327 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,519 他确立了这个是个支撑区 328 00:13:12,759 --> 00:13:14,919 有60%的概率继续涨 329 00:13:14,919 --> 00:13:16,559 这根K线就像啥呢 330 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,120 就像刚才PLTR那个止跌大阳线一样的效果 331 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,929 应该继续做多失败怎么办 332 00:13:22,929 --> 00:13:24,889 折损应该放在48这一代哈 333 00:13:25,929 --> 00:13:28,249 我看下15分钟图是吧 334 00:13:28,249 --> 00:13:31,188 他有可能周一啊给一个稍微回调 335 00:13:31,188 --> 00:13:32,428 或者是横盘一下 336 00:13:32,428 --> 00:13:34,068 或者直接往上走 337 00:13:34,068 --> 00:13:36,129 直接往上涨啊 338 00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:38,259 我们再看一下日线 339 00:13:38,259 --> 00:13:40,379 往往这种超级的底部啊 340 00:13:40,379 --> 00:13:42,080 他可以直接走 341 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:46,179 你看这片他自己这他就可以直接弄上去哈 342 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,039 好再看这也有可能吧 343 00:13:49,039 --> 00:13:51,110 嗯好了 344 00:13:51,110 --> 00:13:54,830 这是document的一个可能的局部波段交易机会 345 00:13:56,039 --> 00:14:00,240 刚才我们提到微软看是吧 346 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:01,259 大阳线大阳线 347 00:14:01,259 --> 00:14:05,610 我们之前说抄底抄底抄底这片还是抄底区 348 00:14:05,610 --> 00:14:08,850 看到周四周五两根大阳线 349 00:14:08,850 --> 00:14:09,929 只要还能超满 350 00:14:09,929 --> 00:14:12,570 能他至少不是戴尔级别的高点对吧 351 00:14:12,570 --> 00:14:15,389 他是相对的中中等偏低的一个位置 352 00:14:15,389 --> 00:14:18,210 再加上吃龙头股应该做啥呀 353 00:14:18,210 --> 00:14:20,570 做多中间有些阻力区怎么办 354 00:14:20,570 --> 00:14:22,309 不要理睬是吧 355 00:14:22,309 --> 00:14:24,679 我们说我们优先选择趋势线 356 00:14:24,679 --> 00:14:27,240 直上阻力区就看一眼就是是了 357 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:28,759 如果到了重要的阻力位啊 358 00:14:28,759 --> 00:14:31,159 比如中间这块他有明显的使劲的抛压 359 00:14:31,159 --> 00:14:33,129 我们才会处理是吧 360 00:14:33,129 --> 00:14:35,629 一般假设都是小小回调而已 361 00:14:35,629 --> 00:14:37,309 我们看一下15分钟图 362 00:14:37,309 --> 00:14:39,210 看拉升小回调 363 00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:41,389 拉升横盘再拉升 364 00:14:41,389 --> 00:14:43,269 有人说这是衰竭性的 365 00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:44,870 你要是总按逆时思维的话 366 00:14:44,870 --> 00:14:46,029 你就犯了错啊 367 00:14:46,029 --> 00:14:47,870 因为人家说了 368 00:14:47,870 --> 00:14:48,710 逆势思维 369 00:14:48,710 --> 00:14:51,500 只逆势的概率只有40% 370 00:14:51,500 --> 00:14:52,679 你要听清楚啊 371 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:54,820 只有40%的概率 372 00:14:55,269 --> 00:14:57,669 顺势的概率60% 373 00:14:57,669 --> 00:14:59,250 近期是震荡上行啊 374 00:14:59,250 --> 00:15:01,230 他已经进入到了下跌线的右侧 375 00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:03,669 是多头的势力范围 376 00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:09,000 嗯我们之前还有一些图啊 377 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:10,279 他既然浮出水平 378 00:15:10,279 --> 00:15:14,820 看一眼CHWY这个跟DOCU有类似之处 379 00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:16,559 哎是吧 380 00:15:16,559 --> 00:15:17,659 有类似之处 381 00:15:17,659 --> 00:15:20,639 差不多把这个区域像是底哈 382 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,100 因为这波熊市到这已经衰竭了 383 00:15:23,100 --> 00:15:24,940 DOTA上次反攻了一下 384 00:15:24,940 --> 00:15:26,360 再次洗了个盘 385 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,309 更像是头肩大敌哈 386 00:15:28,309 --> 00:15:32,210 所以形态的交易者理论上他会在右侧底 387 00:15:32,210 --> 00:15:35,919 右侧肩膀指跌的位置尝试做多 388 00:15:35,919 --> 00:15:36,960 我们看这篇 389 00:15:38,639 --> 00:15:40,679 那么这一周多一点就是一个止跌 390 00:15:40,679 --> 00:15:44,469 这种感觉大部分人啊不应该去做啊 391 00:15:44,469 --> 00:15:48,779 少部分人才能尝试这种反转交易 392 00:15:49,220 --> 00:15:53,559 这是这个我们这个下跌趋势就这样吧是吧 393 00:15:53,559 --> 00:15:55,600 突破回踩止跌 394 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,279 也就是第三浪可能要开始再次去测试 395 00:15:58,279 --> 00:16:00,399 47~50这一带的阻力区啊 396 00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:03,789 也说基本上有一个翻一番的一个空间 397 00:16:03,789 --> 00:16:06,250 现在是22块钱吧 398 00:16:07,259 --> 00:16:09,580 有人说这机会就是这么一点一点发掘的 399 00:16:09,580 --> 00:16:10,129 是的 400 00:16:10,129 --> 00:16:12,129 当市场给你轮动到暴涨的时候 401 00:16:12,129 --> 00:16:14,730 你就要看看他有没有潜在的结构是吧 402 00:16:14,730 --> 00:16:16,710 有也不一定百分之百对哈 403 00:16:16,710 --> 00:16:18,970 大家自己要控制风险 404 00:16:20,340 --> 00:16:21,940 下一只是AIM 405 00:16:21,940 --> 00:16:24,700 你看这个图长得也是相当的陡峭 406 00:16:24,700 --> 00:16:25,860 今天还是上涨 407 00:16:25,860 --> 00:16:27,559 上涨5% 408 00:16:27,559 --> 00:16:29,399 看看是吧 409 00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:31,860 这个图我们曾经跟进了好久啊 410 00:16:31,860 --> 00:16:35,259 就说震荡行情对人的影响是非常负面的 411 00:16:35,259 --> 00:16:38,299 恢复到趋势行情的时候也是悄无声息的 412 00:16:38,299 --> 00:16:40,559 那么现在呢应该继续看涨 413 00:16:40,559 --> 00:16:42,870 我们看一下15分钟图 414 00:16:43,230 --> 00:16:45,350 有人说哎这怎么没跌下来呢 415 00:16:45,350 --> 00:16:46,669 也不想跌啊 416 00:16:46,669 --> 00:16:48,529 应该以日线为标准哈 417 00:16:48,529 --> 00:16:50,669 把球先调到这来 418 00:16:50,669 --> 00:16:53,370 老是猜反转的人肯定会很受伤啊 419 00:16:53,370 --> 00:16:54,889 对这些牛股来说 420 00:16:54,889 --> 00:16:56,529 偶尔会猜对哈 421 00:16:56,529 --> 00:16:57,750 概率会低一点 422 00:16:57,750 --> 00:17:00,070 40%的概率猜对嘛 423 00:17:01,899 --> 00:17:02,340 好 424 00:17:04,380 --> 00:17:05,519 我们看一下阿光啊 425 00:17:05,519 --> 00:17:06,220 谁呀 426 00:17:06,220 --> 00:17:11,799 美光我看今天是属于属于什么呢 427 00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:13,039 属于跳空高开 428 00:17:13,039 --> 00:17:13,980 收出了阳线 429 00:17:13,980 --> 00:17:15,529 上涨5% 430 00:17:15,529 --> 00:17:18,950 那前两天的停顿是反转黑线吗 431 00:17:18,950 --> 00:17:22,858 不是他就是一个斜角哈横盘 432 00:17:22,858 --> 00:17:25,199 所以还是顺势概率高吧 433 00:17:25,199 --> 00:17:28,279 那后续呢后续不知道啊 434 00:17:28,279 --> 00:17:29,220 后续到底涨还跌 435 00:17:29,220 --> 00:17:30,279 谁能知道啊 436 00:17:30,279 --> 00:17:31,259 不知道的情况下 437 00:17:31,259 --> 00:17:32,480 就先顺着猜 438 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,150 我看下15分钟哎 439 00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:38,230 我们昨天特意给他在15分钟图上 440 00:17:38,230 --> 00:17:40,549 画了这么一个局部的趋势线哈 441 00:17:40,549 --> 00:17:42,589 它没有向下破位下来 442 00:17:42,589 --> 00:17:45,568 今天的行情是微微天空高开回踩 443 00:17:45,568 --> 00:17:47,888 我画的这个小趋势线诶 444 00:17:47,888 --> 00:17:50,950 到尾盘有半个小时是止跌K线 445 00:17:50,950 --> 00:17:52,309 所以以后就安全了嘛 446 00:17:52,309 --> 00:17:53,529 没人能保证哈 447 00:17:53,529 --> 00:17:55,730 目前目前是多头啊 448 00:17:55,730 --> 00:17:57,549 今天这么就这么两根黑线 449 00:17:57,549 --> 00:17:58,549 就是5% 450 00:17:58,549 --> 00:18:00,414 加上这个缺口 451 00:18:01,078 --> 00:18:01,558 看 452 00:18:03,679 --> 00:18:06,049 有人说哎呀踩顶真难踩 453 00:18:06,049 --> 00:18:08,890 我相信我的粉丝中也有踩顶的哈 454 00:18:08,890 --> 00:18:11,240 或或者叫太空的交易者 455 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,200 太空的交易者 456 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,619 完全可以切换到那个像微软这种图上 457 00:18:14,619 --> 00:18:17,839 至少给你一个在座的一个机会是吧 458 00:18:17,839 --> 00:18:20,680 像这种追高类的确实有难度哈 459 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,240 有难度不容易做 460 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:23,609 像PENTATER 461 00:18:23,609 --> 00:18:26,769 微软这些都是相对低一点的 462 00:18:26,769 --> 00:18:29,420 会好一点是吧 463 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,200 好我们看一下博通 464 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,259 博通这个我们观察了好久哈 465 00:18:35,259 --> 00:18:36,859 他这横着横着横着 466 00:18:36,859 --> 00:18:38,599 他怎么不跌下来呢 467 00:18:38,599 --> 00:18:40,339 因为顺时就开始搞 468 00:18:40,339 --> 00:18:41,900 确实先调到这里来 469 00:18:41,900 --> 00:18:44,299 还有今天是一根阳线 470 00:18:44,299 --> 00:18:45,380 还能踩顶吗 471 00:18:45,380 --> 00:18:47,809 不能有人说踩够了是的 472 00:18:47,809 --> 00:18:49,230 老是踩顶干嘛呢 473 00:18:49,230 --> 00:18:50,490 等我让你猜的时候 474 00:18:50,490 --> 00:18:51,250 你再猜 475 00:18:51,250 --> 00:18:54,480 不让你猜的时候不猜是吧 476 00:18:54,799 --> 00:18:56,319 我们看一下15分钟图哈 477 00:18:57,319 --> 00:19:00,440 看大阳线回调 478 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:01,720 有人认为这就是顶 479 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:02,480 它叫做空 480 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:03,299 你看做空 481 00:19:03,299 --> 00:19:06,500 但你看后边后边这一个小时四根15分钟回去 482 00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:07,660 直接给你弄上去了 483 00:19:07,660 --> 00:19:09,009 你不踩顶吗 484 00:19:09,009 --> 00:19:10,930 我气死你是吧 485 00:19:10,930 --> 00:19:12,089 这就是这意思啊 486 00:19:12,089 --> 00:19:13,250 多头秀了一下 487 00:19:13,250 --> 00:19:14,009 气死你 488 00:19:14,009 --> 00:19:17,029 当然博弈的最终呢还是会有反向运动啊 489 00:19:17,029 --> 00:19:18,609 我们要提高警惕 490 00:19:18,609 --> 00:19:20,210 也就是说这也有可能是顶 491 00:19:20,210 --> 00:19:20,730 是的 492 00:19:20,730 --> 00:19:21,990 按照这个通道理论的 493 00:19:21,990 --> 00:19:23,910 这个多头通道是越来越弱势了 494 00:19:23,910 --> 00:19:26,329 也有可能是顶哈 495 00:19:26,828 --> 00:19:28,088 它涨不动了嘛 496 00:19:28,088 --> 00:19:29,128 有点弱势 497 00:19:29,128 --> 00:19:30,449 但是按照我的理论呢 498 00:19:30,449 --> 00:19:32,700 可不是不完全是那样哈 499 00:19:32,700 --> 00:19:34,359 我们再看下日期 500 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,759 为什么我的理论更好用呢 501 00:19:36,759 --> 00:19:39,750 因为少了一个踩挺的环节啊 502 00:19:39,750 --> 00:19:42,630 或者说少了在过程中不断裁定的环节 503 00:19:42,630 --> 00:19:45,220 只是在最终注定的时候才离场 504 00:19:45,380 --> 00:19:48,140 这个看起来像注定像吧 505 00:19:48,140 --> 00:19:49,700 但事后一看哎呀 506 00:19:49,700 --> 00:19:52,099 不是要说这也可以再调回来 507 00:19:52,099 --> 00:19:53,190 那倒是 508 00:19:53,190 --> 00:19:55,309 但是你要是频繁这么猜的话 509 00:19:55,309 --> 00:19:56,269 你看这几个月 510 00:19:56,269 --> 00:19:57,750 这一个多月 511 00:19:57,750 --> 00:20:00,630 那你就猜错了对吧 512 00:20:00,630 --> 00:20:03,309 实际上猜错的概率较高哈 513 00:20:03,309 --> 00:20:05,519 顺势猜的概率更高 514 00:20:05,519 --> 00:20:08,000 顺势才胜率更高一点吧是吧 515 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:10,720 好继续看涨 516 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,539 好还有这么多哈 517 00:20:12,539 --> 00:20:15,980 我们看英伟达哎呦 518 00:20:15,980 --> 00:20:18,259 有人说英伟达昨天刚给了根阳线 519 00:20:18,259 --> 00:20:20,299 今天本来盘中给了一个点拉升 520 00:20:20,299 --> 00:20:22,220 怎么又掉回来了呢 521 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,299 谁也不知道对吧 522 00:20:25,299 --> 00:20:27,059 只能说谁也不知道为什么会这样 523 00:20:27,059 --> 00:20:29,240 我们看一下15分钟图 524 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,839 有人说为什么最后一根柱子能下给弄下来了 525 00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:34,480 本来这样长得这么好 526 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,140 这叫这叫什么 527 00:20:36,140 --> 00:20:38,179 一切皆有可能 528 00:20:38,378 --> 00:20:40,019 也就说终于浮了 529 00:20:40,019 --> 00:20:41,778 那么后续怎么办呢 530 00:20:41,778 --> 00:20:43,618 如果下周一还是往下跌 531 00:20:43,618 --> 00:20:44,638 应该先减持 532 00:20:44,638 --> 00:20:46,190 应对更深的回调 533 00:20:46,190 --> 00:20:47,849 我们之前说过一个理论 534 00:20:47,849 --> 00:20:50,920 就说他如果不能在重要的支撑位置里 535 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,220 恢复到上涨的话 536 00:20:52,220 --> 00:20:54,180 他有可能形成更宽幅的震荡 537 00:20:54,180 --> 00:20:56,400 就像那个a arm那样 538 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:57,660 就像他自己这样 539 00:20:57,660 --> 00:20:59,769 前面这更宽幅的震荡 540 00:20:59,769 --> 00:21:01,250 更宽幅的震荡 541 00:21:01,250 --> 00:21:02,609 你说他咋这样呢 542 00:21:02,609 --> 00:21:03,990 因为市场有两种状态 543 00:21:03,990 --> 00:21:05,390 一种是强趋势行情 544 00:21:05,390 --> 00:21:06,829 一种是震荡行情 545 00:21:06,829 --> 00:21:09,059 震荡行情也是一种稳态 546 00:21:09,059 --> 00:21:11,420 主要是因为它的市值过高哈 547 00:21:11,420 --> 00:21:13,700 有可能也恢复到宽幅震荡行情 548 00:21:14,700 --> 00:21:16,779 我们再看一下日线 549 00:21:17,500 --> 00:21:18,220 是的 550 00:21:18,220 --> 00:21:22,640 他在最后一个一根15分钟K线掉下来了 551 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,549 所以我们在记住这个永远的这个形态啊 552 00:21:27,098 --> 00:21:28,298 OK你可以涨 553 00:21:28,298 --> 00:21:29,858 但我就想给你砸下来 554 00:21:29,858 --> 00:21:31,920 就15分钟就够对 555 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:33,119 如果还有5分钟的图的话 556 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,279 那就是两根K线就直接弄下来了 557 00:21:35,279 --> 00:21:36,720 10分钟就够 558 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,779 所以市场一旦有突变的行为 559 00:21:39,779 --> 00:21:41,039 不要感到意外 560 00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:42,420 嗯是吧 561 00:21:42,420 --> 00:21:46,119 他就10分钟他就给你改变你的预期啊 562 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,240 资金在卖哈 563 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:48,240 才会导致暴跌 564 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:49,730 而不是在买 565 00:21:50,049 --> 00:21:52,170 所以下周必须得有阳线出现啊 566 00:21:53,369 --> 00:21:57,490 否则否则深跌的概率在增加 567 00:21:57,900 --> 00:21:58,819 也可以指定吧 568 00:21:58,819 --> 00:21:59,480 也可以哈 569 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,150 嗯再看一看 570 00:22:01,150 --> 00:22:02,869 因为这片是一个支撑位哈 571 00:22:02,869 --> 00:22:06,029 这个支撑位如果没有真正的大阳线弄出来 572 00:22:06,029 --> 00:22:07,990 他就属于破位了对吧 573 00:22:07,990 --> 00:22:10,605 所以多头止损就在这片了 574 00:22:11,259 --> 00:22:13,099 好特斯拉呢 575 00:22:13,099 --> 00:22:14,420 特斯拉还好啊 576 00:22:14,420 --> 00:22:16,079 特斯拉不是一个强空头K线 577 00:22:16,079 --> 00:22:19,999 今天应该是对这个小局部小阻力区一个测试哈 578 00:22:19,999 --> 00:22:22,670 就是说这里有个小洗盘啊 579 00:22:22,670 --> 00:22:24,069 现在的阴线不强 580 00:22:24,069 --> 00:22:25,490 所以多头暂时无优化 581 00:22:25,490 --> 00:22:29,970 也要看后续会不会再次给出阳线去尝试反攻哈 582 00:22:29,970 --> 00:22:31,349 尝试突破这个小阻力区 583 00:22:32,349 --> 00:22:33,549 因为每到一个拐点处 584 00:22:33,549 --> 00:22:34,670 它都有一个小阻力区啊 585 00:22:34,670 --> 00:22:36,689 去测试好 586 00:22:36,689 --> 00:22:37,729 这个暂时没事哈 587 00:22:38,848 --> 00:22:40,650 好还有很多的图表呢 588 00:22:40,650 --> 00:22:42,549 也欢迎大家成为会员哈 589 00:22:44,130 --> 00:22:45,869 还有一个最热美股详细说 590 00:22:45,869 --> 00:22:48,400 欢迎大家成为绿宝石会员哈 591 00:22:48,599 --> 00:22:50,140 好我们先这样
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