《聪明的投资者》精读：投资界圣经，一本书让你看懂投资！

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你是否想过

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为什么股票市场

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这个号称让普通人也能实现财富自由的地方

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对我们大多数人来说

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却像个永远填不平的无底洞

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每天睁开眼看K线

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追热点

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听专家分析

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结果呢涨了怕踏空

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跌了怕套牢

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追涨杀跌反复被割

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你有没有在某个深夜盯着账户里缩水的数字

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问过自己一句

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到底差在哪

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是信息

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是资金还是真的没有那个天赋

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今天这条视频可能会彻底颠覆你

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对炒股这两个字的认知

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我要跟你聊的这本书

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被巴菲特称为有史以来最伟大的投资著作

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它的作者叫本杰明格雷厄姆

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巴菲特的老师

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整个华尔街的教父

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他做了一件特别硬核的事

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他给普通人画了一张

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能真正告别韭菜命运的地图

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所以这个视频不会轻松

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它可能会颠覆你对炒股的全部认知

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甚至告诉你

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过去你的很多努力可能都在走弯路

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接下来我会带你彻底分清什么是投资

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什么是投机

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认识一个能帮你赚钱的疯子

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拿到那把开启理性财富的钥匙

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点个收藏

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我们马上开始这次

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走对那条真正值得的财富之路

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我们从一个最根本的问题开始

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你买的股票到底是什么

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大多数人可能会说

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不就是一串代码吗

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低买高卖赚差价呗

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但格雷厄姆在书里反复强调一句话

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值得你记下来

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股票首先是一家公司的部分所有权凭证

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其次才是一个可以交易的金融工具

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什么意思

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请你跟我一起做个思想实验

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想象财富的世界里

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并排开着两扇门

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左边那扇门金碧辉煌

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霓虹闪烁

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门头上写着四个大字

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金融赌场里面的人

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眼睛都死死盯着屏幕上的红绿数字

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他们谈论的是代码

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消息封口

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每个人都想预测下一秒的涨跌

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每个人都想把别人口袋里的钱

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快速转移到自己兜里

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这就是投机者的世界

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他们关心的是股票的价格

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而不是股票背后的公司

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右边那扇门看起来朴实无华

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甚至有点老旧

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门头上写着财富农场

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走进去的人

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我们叫他们投资者

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他们从不关心今天的菜价

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是涨了一毛还是跌了两分

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他们关心的是这片农场的土壤是否肥沃

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灌溉系统是否完善

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种下的种子是不是能长期长出好东西

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他们买入一家公司的股票

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本质上是买下了这片农场的一部分

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他们的目标不是靠倒卖土地赚差价

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而是作为农场主长期分享农作物的丰收

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也就是公司盈利带来的分红和成长

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你看投机者玩的是零和游戏

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就像打麻将

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有人赢就有人输

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钱的总数没变

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而投资者玩的是正和游戏

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就像和优秀公司一起种地

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公司越赚越多

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分到你手里的也就越多

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钱的总量在变大

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格雷厄姆一针见血地指出

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绝大多数普通人的亏损根源就在于

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我们误把赌场当成了农场

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用一套赌徒的玩法

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去玩一场本该属于农场主的游戏

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你想想是不是这样

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我们每天看K线

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听消息

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追涨杀跌

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本质上就是在赌大小

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我们以为自己是在投资

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其实是在赌博

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那么怎么判断自己到底推开了哪扇门

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有一个特别简单的标准

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你可以问自己一个问题

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如果这只股票明天停牌3年无法交易

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你还愿意买它吗

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如果你的答案是不愿意

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那你很可能是在投机

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如果你的答案是愿意

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因为我相信这家公司3年后会更值钱

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那恭喜你

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你已经摸到了投资者的门槛

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选择成为农场主

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你就拿到了进入聪明投资者世界的第一张门票

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但问题来了

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农场外的天气总是风云变幻

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市场每天都在狂风暴雨和烈日炎炎之间切换

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我们该如何面对这种混乱呢

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别急

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格雷厄姆为我们介绍了一位堪称投资界最奇葩

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也最有价值的伙伴

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假设你现在已经成了一个理性的农场主

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拥有了一片不错的农场

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但你有个合伙人

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他每天都会准时出现在你面前

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给你报个价

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要么想买你手里的股份

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要么想卖给你

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他手里的股份

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这位合伙人就是市场先生

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但这位市场先生有个毛病

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他是个情绪极不稳定的躁郁症患者

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当他狂躁发作的时候

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他会满脸通红的冲到你面前

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手舞足蹈的说

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兄弟

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咱们的农场简直是天堂

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今年的收成会好到爆

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未来咱们要发大财了

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然后他会开出一个高到离谱的天价

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想要买走你手里的股份

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而当他抑郁发作的时候

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他又会垂头丧气的走过来

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哭丧着脸说

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完蛋了

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天要塌了

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咱们的农场要颗粒无收了

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求你把我手里的股份买走吧

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多少钱都行

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我只想赶紧离开这个鬼地方

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然后他会开出一个低到让你怀疑人生的地板价

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现在我问你

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你会怎么应对

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大多数普通人的反应是跟着市场先生一起疯

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他一兴奋

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我们就冲进去高价买

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他一崩溃

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我们就吓得低价卖

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我们完全被他牵着鼻子走

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把疯子的话当成了圣旨

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但聪明的农场主会怎么做

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他会冷静的想

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市场先生的报价只是他的情绪宣泄

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跟农场的真实价值没有半毛钱关系

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农场还是那个农场

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土地还是那块土地

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庄稼还在地里好好长着

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当市场先生狂躁的出高价时

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聪明人会想

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既然你这么看好

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愿意用未来的价格买我今天的东西

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那我正好卖给你一些

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当市场先生抑郁的出低价时

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聪明人会想

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既然你愿意用白菜价卖给我优质资产

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那我当然要买下来

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格雷厄姆用这个比喻

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揭示了一个投资的终极秘密

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市场的存在不是为了指导你

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而是为了服务你

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市场先生是你的仆人

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不是你的导师

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你可以利用他的疯狂

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但绝不能被他控制

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听到这儿

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你可能觉得这道理很简单

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但为什么现实中

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99%的人还是会被市场先生带节奏

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因为要做到这一点

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你心里必须有一把无比坚定的尺子

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去衡量它报价的合理性

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这把尺子就是格雷厄姆整个投资体系中最核心

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最坚不可摧的基石

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安全边际

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什么叫安全边际

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为了让你彻底理解

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我们再来打个比方

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假设你是一位桥梁工程师

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你的任务是设计一座大桥

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要求能承载10吨的卡车安全通过

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你会怎么做

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是按10吨的标准

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一吨不多的建造吗

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当然不是一个负责任的工程师

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会把桥的实际承重能力设计成30吨

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为什么

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因为你知道未来会有各种意外

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可能会有超载的车辆

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可能会有材料的老化

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可能会有地震洪水

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有了这20吨的富余

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即使真的开上来一辆15吨的卡车

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你也能内心毫无波澜

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因为你知道这座桥有巨大的安全边际

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现在把这个逻辑搬到投资上

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桥梁的真实承载能力就是一家公司的内在价值

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这是基于对公司盈利能力

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资产状况

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行业前景等理性分析后得出的一个客观估计值

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它就像桥的30吨实际承重

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市场先生每天报出的价格

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就是那辆开上来的卡车

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他可能今天是10吨

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明天是5吨

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后天又变成20吨

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它随时在变

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但桥本身没变

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安全边际

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就是你买入的价格远低于你算出的内在价值

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00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,980
比如你估算出这家公司值30元一股

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00:06:08,980 --> 00:06:11,779
但你只在市场先生报价15元甚至十元时

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才买入

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00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,360
中间这15元或20元的差价

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就是你的安全边际

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00:06:15,620 --> 00:06:16,779
安全边际是什么

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00:06:16,779 --> 00:06:19,019
它是保护你免于犯错的终极武器

235
00:06:19,019 --> 00:06:20,379
他承认了一个事实

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00:06:20,379 --> 00:06:21,680
未来是不可预测的

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你的分析可能出错

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00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:24,100
行业可能突变

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00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:25,699
黑天鹅可能随时降临

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00:06:25,699 --> 00:06:27,759
但只要你有足够宽的安全边际

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00:06:27,759 --> 00:06:29,319
就像那座30吨的大桥

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00:06:29,319 --> 00:06:31,480
你就能抵御绝大多数未知的风险

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00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,100
哪怕你的判断有些偏差

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00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:34,480
哪怕市场继续下跌

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00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,160
你的本金依然是安全的

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格雷厄姆警告说

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任何没有安全边际的投资

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无论看起来多么诱人

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00:06:40,459 --> 00:06:41,779
本质上都是在赌博

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00:06:41,779 --> 00:06:43,939
你就像开着一辆10.1吨的卡车

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00:06:43,939 --> 00:06:45,639
去过一座承重10吨的桥

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用自己的身家性命去赌这座桥的质量

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00:06:48,199 --> 00:06:51,860
所以聪明投资者的所有工作都可以简化为两部

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00:06:51,860 --> 00:06:54,279
第一估算出这座桥大概值多少钱

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这需要你学会看财报

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00:06:55,819 --> 00:06:56,920
理解商业模式

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判断公司有没有护城河

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第二耐心等待

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00:06:59,740 --> 00:07:02,319
直到能用买自行车的钱去买下这座桥

260
00:07:02,319 --> 00:07:04,600
这需要你对抗人性的贪婪和恐惧

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00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,519
在市场先生抑郁时敢于出手

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00:07:06,519 --> 00:07:08,079
在他狂躁时敢于离场

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有了安全边际

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这把尺子

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你是不是觉得自己已经武装到牙齿了

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00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,480
但格雷厄姆还告诉我们

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光有武器不够

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还得有战术

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不同的人适合不同的打法

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接下来我们就来看看你到底适合走哪条路

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格雷厄姆非常贴心的

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00:07:21,660 --> 00:07:24,519
根据我们不同的风险承受能力和投入精力

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00:07:24,519 --> 00:07:26,680
设计了两套截然不同的作战方案

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防御型投资和进攻型投资

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第一条路是为绝大多数普通人准备的

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叫防御型投资策略

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00:07:32,860 --> 00:07:35,540
它的核心比喻是你是一个省心的农场主

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你的目标不是追求最高的产量

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而是避免重大失误

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获得一份稳定令人满意的平均回报

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操作方法极其简单

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甚至可以说无脑一极度分散

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00:07:44,639 --> 00:07:46,500
你不去猜哪棵果树长得最好

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比如几十家不同行业的龙头公司

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或者更简单

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00:07:52,519 --> 00:07:53,779
直接买指数基金

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指数基金

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相当于

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00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,300
你一次性买下了整个国营大农场的所有权

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跟着国运走

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00:07:58,259 --> 00:07:59,439
二定期投资

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00:07:59,439 --> 00:08:01,019
你不需要预测什么时候播种

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00:08:01,019 --> 00:08:02,579
最好只需要纪律性的

294
00:08:02,579 --> 00:08:04,180
每个月固定投入一笔钱

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00:08:04,180 --> 00:08:05,019
这叫定投

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00:08:05,019 --> 00:08:07,019
市场高的时候你买到的份额少

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00:08:07,019 --> 00:08:07,980
市场低的时候

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00:08:07,980 --> 00:08:09,120
你买到的份额多

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00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:09,899
长期下来

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00:08:09,899 --> 00:08:12,519
你的成本会被摊平在一个非常合理的位置

301
00:08:12,519 --> 00:08:14,399
防御型投资的伟大之处在于

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00:08:14,399 --> 00:08:15,680
它承认了我们普通人

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00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,259
没有足够的时间和专业知识去精选个股

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00:08:18,259 --> 00:08:20,360
这是一条自动化的财富积累之路

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00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:21,420
核心就三个字

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00:08:21,420 --> 00:08:22,120
不折腾

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00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,819
第二条路是为少数有足够时间和精力

308
00:08:24,819 --> 00:08:26,879
并且真心热爱研究的人准备的

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00:08:26,879 --> 00:08:28,339
叫进攻型投资策略

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00:08:28,339 --> 00:08:31,600
它的核心比喻是你是一个精耕细作的农业专家

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00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,418
你的目标是通过深入研究

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00:08:33,418 --> 00:08:35,099
找到那些被市场低估的

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00:08:35,099 --> 00:08:36,759
有巨大潜力的超级良种

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00:08:36,759 --> 00:08:39,198
从而获得超越市场平均水平的回报

315
00:08:39,198 --> 00:08:40,678
操作方法要复杂得多

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00:08:40,678 --> 00:08:43,559
你需要像侦探一样去阅读大量的公司财报

317
00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:44,919
分析他的商业模式

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00:08:44,919 --> 00:08:46,059
评估他的管理层

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00:08:46,059 --> 00:08:47,039
预测他的未来

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00:08:47,039 --> 00:08:48,440
并精确地给他估值

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00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,139
然后运用我们之前说的安全边际原则

322
00:08:51,139 --> 00:08:53,399
在价格远低于价值时重仓出售

323
00:08:53,399 --> 00:08:54,820
这需要巨大的智力投入

324
00:08:54,820 --> 00:08:57,539
极强的情绪控制能力和长时间的专注

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00:08:57,539 --> 00:08:59,559
巴菲特就是这条路的顶级玩家

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00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,919
格雷厄姆给了我们一个极其诚恳的忠告

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00:09:01,919 --> 00:09:03,940
在不确定自己是哪种类型之前

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00:09:03,940 --> 00:09:06,379
所有人都应该从防御型投资者做起

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00:09:06,379 --> 00:09:08,830
先保证自己能活下来再谈发展

330
00:09:08,830 --> 00:09:11,710
最危险的是那些只有防御型投资者的知识

331
00:09:11,710 --> 00:09:14,049
却怀揣着进攻型投资者的野心的人

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00:09:14,049 --> 00:09:16,139
他们往往会死在冲锋的路上

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00:09:16,139 --> 00:09:16,899
看到这

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00:09:16,899 --> 00:09:19,139
你可能已经知道自己更适合哪条路了

335
00:09:19,139 --> 00:09:20,139
但不管选哪条

336
00:09:20,139 --> 00:09:21,559
都有一个共同的起点

337
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,409
改变你看待股票的方式

338
00:09:23,409 --> 00:09:26,250
最后我给你一个最简单也最有效的行动

339
00:09:26,250 --> 00:09:29,009
建议我们这场关于聪明的投资者的认知之旅

340
00:09:29,009 --> 00:09:30,039
马上就要到站了

341
00:09:30,039 --> 00:09:31,820
回顾一下我们学到了什么

342
00:09:31,820 --> 00:09:34,159
我们明白了投资的本质不是预测

343
00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:34,919
而是应对

344
00:09:34,919 --> 00:09:36,139
不是比谁更聪明

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00:09:36,139 --> 00:09:37,340
而是比谁更自律

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00:09:37,340 --> 00:09:38,139
我们知道了

347
00:09:38,139 --> 00:09:40,019
要把自己定位为财富农场主

348
00:09:40,019 --> 00:09:42,639
把疯狂的市场先生当成可以利用的仆人

349
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:44,259
并永远坚守安全边际

350
00:09:44,259 --> 00:09:45,799
这座永不坍塌的大桥

351
00:09:45,799 --> 00:09:47,500
那么如何迈出第一步

352
00:09:47,500 --> 00:09:48,919
别再盯着K线图了

353
00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:50,840
下次当你看到一个熟悉的公司

354
00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,240
比如你每天用的微信

355
00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:52,980
喝的白酒

356
00:09:52,980 --> 00:09:55,759
穿的运动鞋去问自己一个完全不同的问题

357
00:09:55,759 --> 00:09:56,980
如果我有足够的钱

358
00:09:56,980 --> 00:09:59,759
我愿意以现在的总市值买下这整家公司

359
00:09:59,759 --> 00:10:01,059
并且持有10年吗

360
00:10:01,059 --> 00:10:02,539
当你开始这样思考时

361
00:10:02,539 --> 00:10:05,659
你就从一个赌徒真正迈向了一位聪明的投资者

362
00:10:05,659 --> 00:10:06,840
最后分享一句

363
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:08,779
格雷厄姆在书里反复强调的话

364
00:10:08,779 --> 00:10:10,860
也是他投资哲学的终极智慧

365
00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:13,159
投资成功的秘诀不在于你有多聪明

366
00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:14,600
而在于你有多自律

367
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:15,919
投资者的主要问题

368
00:10:15,919 --> 00:10:18,539
甚至他最坏的敌人很可能就是他自己

369
00:10:18,539 --> 00:10:20,980
祝你早日走上那条真正理性的财富之路

370
00:10:20,980 --> 00:10:21,899
感谢观看

371
00:10:21,899 --> 00:10:23,700
如果这条视频对你有启发

372
00:10:23,700 --> 00:10:24,320
点个赞

373
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:25,419
留个言告诉我

374
00:10:25,419 --> 00:10:26,759
你想听我解读哪本书

375
00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:27,960
我们下本书再见

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