【NaNa说美股】20260427刹车失灵了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月27号周一

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本周将是年内最繁忙的一周

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标普500成份股中

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约44%的市值将会在本周披露财报

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在这些重大事件之前

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市场乐观情绪不减

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标普与纳指都小幅收涨

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道指微幅收跌

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板块涨跌不一

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分化明显

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美国与伊朗之间的谈判陷入了僵局

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周末美方取消了巴基斯坦行程

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尽管没有出现明确的升级

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但是当前局势呢更像是谈判暂停

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市场正在等待能够提振信心的实质性进展

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伊朗已经通过中间人

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巴基斯坦向美方传达了一个三阶段谈判方案

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第一阶段的重点是彻底结束战争

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并且获得防止对伊朗和黎巴嫩

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重新发动战争的保证

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如果在第一阶段达成协议了

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各方呢再进入第二阶段

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这个阶段将会专门研究霍尔木兹海峡

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如何管理的问题

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然后到第三阶段在于这个讨论核问题

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在前面两个阶段达成协议之前

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哈伊朗绝不会参与核问题的谈判

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唉不知道美国有没有这个耐心嗯

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霍尔木兹海峡呢目前仍处于关闭的状态

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高盛在最新研报中上调了对油价的预测

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并且指出油价风险明显偏上心

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根据高盛的预算

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全球石油库存增一一千一百万到1200万桶

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每日的创纪录速度消耗

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供给恢复的节奏呢要慢于原先的预期

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波斯湾出口的正常化

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时间节点已经从原定的5月中旬推迟到6月底

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高盛当前的基准假设为到7月份嗯

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石油供给恢复大约70%

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到年底恢复90%

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尽管中东局势反复哈

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导致油价就居高不下

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科技股呢仍强行将美股大盘推到了历史新高

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但是就在指数节节攀升之际

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市场广度却极度恶化

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创下指数新高时历史第二差的广度记录

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上周五三百二十四只成份股收跌

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净管度读数呢跌到负的148

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上涨动能过度集中于少数权重股

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意味着市场参与度已经大幅萎缩

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这种拉指数

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跌个股的背离结构

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通常是嗯高位震荡或者回调的前兆哈

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但是这并不意味着美股会立刻就暴跌

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因为是前兆吗

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参照去年7月和10月的走势

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在市场管度恶化之后

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指数往往仍能够惯性冲高数日

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随后才触发修正

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本周七

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巨头财报呢

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是纳值100能否延续上涨的关键变量

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正在转化为真实的回报

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那么美股仍有进一步上行空间

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下一个目标看向2万8000点区域

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反之调整的话

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先看下方2万6000点

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这里有此前的阻力转换为支撑区

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预计会有资金介入抄底

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前提是美伊冲突呢不再升级

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三个季度

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市场争论的核心是AI需求是否足够强劲

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能否支撑这个巨额基础设施投资

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而本季度这个争论已经明显降温了哈

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原因在于AI模型的持续进步与落地应用

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不断强化了市场信心

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所以现在市场的逻辑已经完成了

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从预期驱动转向这个验证驱动的切换

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就不再呃讨论需求是否强劲

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而是AI到底能不能够赚钱

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微软的焦点在于ASIA与COOPPILOT的变现能力

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AI不再是它锦上添花的业务哈

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而是必须与微软的传统核心业务

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并肩的收入支柱

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谷歌的60%的资本支出呢都流向基础设

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是否会因AI受损

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以及它的云业务的增长动能

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meta这一边

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2026年

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高达1350亿美元的资本开支

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极度考验投资者的耐心哈

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嗯他的广告收入的稳定性

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必须覆盖它激进的AI投入才行

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近期公司裁员动作反映出巨额基建压力之下

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企业呢正通过优化人力成本

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来强行维持这个效率

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亚马逊的逻辑依然锚定在AWS的增速

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以及在大规模投资周期中

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如何缩短回报周期

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苹果是个异类

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它呢受AI基础设施开支影响较小

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所以估值逻辑更偏向于宏观抗风险能力

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市场核心关注的是IPHONE的需求是否保持强劲

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供应链去中国化的进展以及利润率的侵蚀等等

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英伟达呢是整个AI逻辑的核心和行业的风向标

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嗯它的业绩持续强劲

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路线图呢也支撑着整个行业的资本开支计划

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市场关注定制芯片对它的竞争压力

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以及AI机土设施需求的爆发

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是否已经进入边际递减阶段

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但英伟达的财报呃比较晚哈

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这一周主要还是另外几个巨头的财报

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总的来说

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当前市场焦点已经转向了两个终极考量

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谁能够更快地将巨额资本开支转化为实际回报

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谁在算力扩张与资本效率之间取得平衡

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就是这个烧钱与这个自有现金流之间哈

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呃做一个平衡

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这些巨头的财报表现呢

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将会决定美股是高位换手后继续突破呢

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还是估值回归

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结束了此前这个18连涨的逆天走势

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大空头迈克布瑞上周宣布做空

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他已经通过买入i sh半导体

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TFSOXX的看跌期权

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建立了新的空头仓位

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压住美股

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半导体板块将会在未来几个月内出现显著崩塌

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这一批期权到期日为2027年1月

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行权价为330美元

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比现价低了28%

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他认为半导体板块最终会回落

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目前这一轮上涨呢更多是由技术性因素推动的

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不是有基本面支撑

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尤其是在市场普遍围绕大规模数据中心扩张

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导致芯片短缺这个叙事展开的时候呢

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它对后市保持谨慎

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同时他还买入了英伟达与QQ的长期看跌期权

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与此同时

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它同步反向加仓了被市场抛售的一些软件股

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这看上去michael berry压住的并非是AI叙事的破灭哈

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而是呃压注资金

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将会在一年内从AI硬件板块轮动

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转向那些被打惨的软件应用

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这表明他的立场呢就是不接受嗯

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AI干掉软件这个叙事

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认为市场过度放大了AI对软件企业的冲击

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忽视了硬件端的泡沫风险

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这个我觉得他的呃轮动逻辑本身并没有错哈

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但是他选择做空的和做多的标的呢

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我不太认同嗯

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做空应该是指捡软的捏嘛

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要选那些基本面没有那么稳

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但是那些股价乱涨涨太多的标的

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而不是选英伟达这种基本面稳健的龙头强势股

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还有全世界都抢着买的QQ

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他做多的软件股

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如果挑ServiceNow嗯

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Coric approvin

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微软这些都没有问题哈

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直接买IGB

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直压住这个年底估值修复也行

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但是他挑PAYPAL和adobe

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我是真的看不懂他怎么想

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所以我不是大佬

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他才是大佬是吧

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但是PAPO哈多比我是绝对不会去抄他的作业嗯

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美债收益率呢

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持续围绕4.3%的水平盘整

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市场预计美联储本周将会维持利率不变

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这通常意味着会议本身偏过渡性质哈

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既没有新的经济预测

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也不会调整利率

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在正常情况之下呢

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市场关注点就会集中在嗯FMC声明

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措辞的微调

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以及保威尔对前景的表述

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但是这一次情况有所不同

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主持的最后一次会议

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保卫尔此前表示

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到2028年1月

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坏事选择提前离任

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他可能会在这一周的发布会上说明哈

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这个决定将会影响FMC未来的构成

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如果宝贝尔完全离任

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就像他的那些前任们所做的那样

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那么washer可能接任主

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同时腾出的理事席位

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可能会让川普的小弟米兰获得正式任命

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从而呢使委员会期偏向更鸽派

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因此保威尔对于未来货币政策的指引并不重要

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他的这个在FMC的去留

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才会可能真正引发美债收益率的这个波动

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目前市场呢只计入了全年

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大约10.5个基点的降息空间

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显示自2月以来宽松预期已经大幅降温了哈

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所以后面要使这个降息预期重新升温的话

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那对美股市场来说又是一个新的支撑力量

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那已经无所谓了

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因为加息概率的近期已经大幅下降

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估计到时候市场也没什么反应的

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光通信公司POET股价呢几乎当日腰斩

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公司公告称

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已经取消了所有来自cl s9AI的采购订单

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包括早在2023年4月25号

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首次披露的首批订单

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收购SLIUAI的迈威尔科技

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已经在呃前几天

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4月23号向这公司发出了书面取消通知

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迈威尔科技呢指责该公司违反保密条款

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披露了与采购订单和发货信息的相关内容

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尽管订单被取消

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poo e t仍表示将继续推进既定战略

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聚焦人工智能与光通信市场的产品研发

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以应对持续增长的行业需求

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同时呢公司也在积极履行其他客户订单

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包括近期披露的一笔来自另一家科技公司

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大约500万美元的采购合同

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但市场显然并不买账哈

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在这次暴跌之前

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公司股价从4月初的五美元

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一路飙升到最高15.5美元

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不到一个月时间就翻了三倍

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更耐人寻味的是

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公司早在4月23号就已经收到订单

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取消通知了

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结果4月24号就第二天

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股价还暴涨了29%

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到今天才低开闷杀

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把场内资金给一网打尽

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就怕这个违法保密条款只是借口

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技术不过关才是真实原因哈

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如果产品技术过关的话

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那业务后面还有修复的可能嗯

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把泄密的那个CFO给开了就行哈

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再去另外报其他公司大退

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但要是产品技术不过关啊

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那这个票就烂了

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高通股价呢高开低走

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盘前涨近14%

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结果开盘就高台跳水

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尾盘涨幅收窄到只有1%

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消息面上

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天丰国际分析师郭明启发文称

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根据他的最新产业调查

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OpenAI曾与联发科高通合作开发手机芯片

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立讯精密呢则作为独立系统

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联合设计和制造合作伙伴

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预计这个项目将于2028年进入量产阶段

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这个2026年炒2028年的量产

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那两年时间变数太大了哈

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所以这就是个故事

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不是真实的订单

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股价盘前拉那么高呃

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资金当然要先兑现利润再说了

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微软股价盘前一度跌超4%

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日内抹去了所有跌幅后转涨

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消息面上

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OpenAI宣布将它与微软的授权协议转为非独家

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双方披露的修订协议协是呢

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微软不再拥有OpenAI知识产权的独家使用权了

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不过仍将保留对OpenAI模型和产品的授权

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到2032年

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只是这个授权将变为非独家之

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意

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味着

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open a未来可以将他的技术

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授权给其他的合作伙伴

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在商业分成方面呢

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修订协议取消了微软向OpenAI支付的收入分成

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但是OpenAI仍将继续向微软支付分成

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到2030年分成的比例维持不变

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同时设有总额上限

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而且这该支付安排呢不在于OpenAI的技术进展

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直接挂钩合作关系层面

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微软仍将是open and的主要云服务合作伙伴

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OpenAI的产品呢将优先部署在err上

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除非微软无法或者选择不支持相关的功能

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不过与此前不同的是

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OpenAI现在可以通过其他的云服务商

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向客户提供啊他的全部产品

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这标志着微软与OpenAI双方

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从此前的绑定关系走向开放合作

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双方表示

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这次协议的调整呢

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是为了未来合作提供更长期的确定性与灵活性

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同时仍将在数据中心扩展下一代芯片

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以及网络安全呀应用等关键领域保持深度合作

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此外微软作为主要股东

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仍将持续参与open i的成长

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这个事情对微软短期情绪实力控哈

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但是中产期呢只是轻微的战略稀释调整而已

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并不改变微软AI龙头地位

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只是他此前对OPENAI的那个垄断权

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变成了优先权而已

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有亚马逊支持的核反应堆开发商x n lg

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00:14:45,370 --> 00:14:47,720
上周五在纳斯达克上市

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IPO首日股价就飙升了近27%

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今天又续涨了23%

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这一家总部位于马里兰州的公司

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在IPO中获得了亚马逊a ark investment

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等主要投资者的支持

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在IPO之前

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哈亚马逊已经持有x in lg

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29%的股份了

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达美乐披萨公布财报之后

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股价下跌

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公司一季度每股收益呢4.13美元

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不及预期的4.28美元

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同比下滑4.62%

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营收同比增长3.5%

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达到11.5亿美元

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但是略低于市场预期的11.63亿美元

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销售增长呢主要得益于供应链收入的增长

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以及全球特许经营权使用费

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费用和广告收入增加

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同店销售并没有达到预期

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因为物价压力让消费者减少了外出就餐

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从而呢打压对餐厅的需求

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不过公司CEO表示哈

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尽管竞争环境更加的激烈

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公司依然保持良好的定位

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它提到了规模优势和门店层面的盈利能力

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但是我对苍蝇股怯媚了哈

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嗯最近就不太喜欢嗯买这些餐饮股了

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行今天我们就说到这里

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那我们明天见拜拜

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