【NaNa说美股】20260610又被渣男骗钱了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是6月10号周三

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美股市场全天都在同时消化两件大事

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一个是美国CPI数据

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另外一件呢是持续升级的中东局势

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而最终结果大家也看到了哈

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虽然通胀数据并没有想象中的那么糟糕

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但是地缘政治风险呢彻底压过了宏观数据

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利好美股

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三大指数盘中反弹失败

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随后又一路走低

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半导体汽车制造以及工业板块成为今天抛售最严重的区域

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恐慌指数VIX今天飙升了11.8%

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波动性扩大

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市场信心下降

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价格走势变得异常不稳定

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资金呢正在快速进入防御状态

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导火索来自于美国与伊朗冲突的进一步升级

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根据美国中央司令部消息

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美军在昨天周二夜间对伊朗南部海岸多个军事目标进行了袭击

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包括军事基地

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海军设施

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雷达系统以及导弹发射装置

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以此回应之前伊朗无人机击落美军直升机的事件

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更令市场担忧的是

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冲突呢已经开始从传统军事目标向民用基础设施扩散

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伊朗部分供水设施在本轮冲突中就遭到了破坏

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而伊朗随后也对驻巴林

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科威特和约旦的美军基地展开了报复性打击

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双方都声称自己是在进行繁育性的行

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但市场显然已经不再关心谁对谁错了哈

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川普今天公开表示

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将会对伊朗采取非常猛烈的军事行动

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并且宣称周二美军已经重创了伊朗

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这个周三哈还将继续展开新一轮打击

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福克斯新闻透露

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白宫已经接近批准针对伊朗发电厂

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桥梁等关键基础设施新一轮打击计划了

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与此同时

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伊朗方面也放出了强硬信号

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嗯伊朗军方表示呢

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正在重新评估与美国的谈判

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并且警告未来的回应力度将远超此前水平

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市场对于中东局势进一步恶化的担忧持续发酵

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而就在市场神经紧绷的时候

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美国5月CPI数据出炉了

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整体来看这份报告呢比市场预期的要略好

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虽然整体通胀仍在加速

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但是剔除掉食品和能源之后的核心CPI表现较为温和啊

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这也是我们昨天视频里所预测的哈

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尤其是这个环比增速从前值0.4%回落到了0.2%

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低于是残余期的0.3%

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同比增速呢也小幅上升到2.9%

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符合逾期

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数据公布之后

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交易员们削减了对年底前加息的极端压注

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美债收益率短线跳水

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纳指期货就一度快速拉升哈

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所以市场是将持作为利好呃来处理

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至少也是一个利空出境这么一个反应嗯

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开盘后纳指甚至这个短暂转涨

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但是CPI利好只维持了不到一个小时哈

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大家都担心今晚伊朗那边又要开打了

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川普都已经说了

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今天要狠狠的打击嘛

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10:30之后呢

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多头动能就彻底消退了

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指数掉头向下重新转跌

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从技术面来看

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标普500今天几乎把昨天收复的这个跌幅全部吐回去了

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就是这个下影线哈

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有这个一根阴线实体

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整个嗯吞噬掉了

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虽然暂时还没有跌破昨天的低点

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但是距离已经非常的接近

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今天收出了这根脚阴线

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说明上方抛压依然沉重

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市场大概率还要向下回踩

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并测试50日均线

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巴克莱对此指出

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从6月初高点算起

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本轮回调的总体幅度预计在6%到7%之间

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底部大约在7150~7050点之间

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如果他的这个判断成立

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那么市场目前可能就只完成了一半的调整

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不过呢美股不会一路这么跌下去的哈

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期间肯定会有暴利反弹

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可以说美股最暴利的单日反弹都是出现在这种大跌的呃

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这个呃趋势当中

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但是呢中短期大概率就整体维持弱势了哈

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除了宏观与地远的利空

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导致大盘近期天天下跌

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流动性几近枯竭的深层原因呢

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还有就是华尔街近期针对一级与二级市场的持续抽水

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最为关键的变量就是这周五即将上市的世纪巨无霸space x了

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过去几年

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每当超级明星公司上市之前

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市场都会出现一次资金再平衡的

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因为资金总量是有限的

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如果在短时间内数千亿美元资金需要快速配置这个speak sex的话

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那么资金只能从现有的那些权重股

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还有高佣几赛道中抽出来

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这几天股价这肉眼可见的持续承压哈

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提前给新人裸腾仓位嗯

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根据指数再平衡预测机构的精算

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由于纳斯达克MSCI以及富时罗素都可能快速纳入SPACEX

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上市仅15个交易日内

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指数基金呢就可能要机械式的吞下SPACEX3成的流通股

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那很多机构现在其实就想把纳资100提前砸出一个坑来释放流动性

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容纳这个巨无霸

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否则的话若纳值100还在历史高位运行

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再强行塞进去一个超级巨无霸

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那很容易就导致整体估值失衡崩掉哈

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在这种局部抽水机效应之下

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特斯拉拉

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英伟达

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还有那些高拥挤的持仓

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就是AI半导体嘛集体失血

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所以对于近期的科技股调整呢

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绝非简单的恐慌抛售哈

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某种程度上其实就是华尔街在为SPACEX上市做准备

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在整体流动性遭遇极度挤压的背景之下

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二级市场的圈钱草更是让市场呢雪上加霜呃

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谷歌与美塔最近又是发债

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又是卖股权

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太空股最近增发的动作也是不断

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SMCI今年股价狂写28%

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直接诱因就是公司宣布计划进行高达70亿美元的股权和股权

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关联融资

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包括50亿美的承销发行与20亿美元的市价增发

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以便在公开市场不定期灵活抛售普通股

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嗯今网管理层声称

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这是为了筹资采购零部件

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以满足高达390亿美元的AI服务器订单

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但是在当前高利率与与大盘失血的环境之下

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如此巨额的增发就引发了市场对它疯狂圈钱的强烈的抵触哈

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在这一场流动性风暴当中呢

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还有世界杯魔咒

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明天就是世界杯开幕了哈

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有数据统计显示呢

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全球股市往往在赛事期间表现较差

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过去八届世界杯期间

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全球股市平均跌幅接近1.8%

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其中跌幅最大的一次就是1994年世界杯期间

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也是在美国举行的哈

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当时美股市场下跌概率呢为50%

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平均跌幅3.09%

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可能就是因为在家门口举行嘛

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所以这个看球赛的美国人更多把钱都拿去赌球啦

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吃吃喝喝啦

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呃出去玩啦

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就反正买股票的钱少了

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精力花的时间也少了

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所以多重因素就导致了美股近期持续调整

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表面上看啊

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好像是川普的这个突变口风哈

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发帖要答疑啦

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其实川普也是顺势而为

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借这个时机满仓开好铺子

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然后发帖就是呃进一步打压这个市场

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加剧了这个恐慌的情绪

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甲骨文今天盘后呢公布了财报

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公司第四财季营收同比增长了20%

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调整后每股收益2.1亿美元

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同比增长24%

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略好于预期

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剩余履约义务从5530亿美元

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增长到创纪录的6380亿美元

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但只有现金流在2030年之前都是负的哈

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总营收入99亿美元

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不及预期的100亿美元

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软件收入呢也不及预期导致的股价在盘后剧烈震荡后走低

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如果能够跌的更多

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我才会考虑哈

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因为现在好多的股票都被砸出了

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性价比比甲骨文更具有吸引能力

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并不是非选他不可

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同样被资金无情抛弃的还有那些嗯

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没有基本面的PPT概念股

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亚马逊支持的核能公司XNLG上市就是巅峰了

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此后股价就跌跌不休

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嗯目前已经跌破了发行价23美元

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与OKO一样

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这种仍处于PPT阶段的电力概念股

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在流动性紧缩周期中呢

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正在被集体清算

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只能等市场情绪好转

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流动性充裕的时候

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才能够玩这些概念股哈

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SK海力士在今年3月份已经宣布秘密提交了在美国上市申请

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计划最早于今年8月在美国上市

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sec可能在这个6月22号当周批准SK海力士的美国存托凭证

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ADR上市申请

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如果SK海力士真的来美国这个上市了

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那可能会对现有的美股AI存储龙头

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尤其是SNDK造成估值风流压力

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现在的SNDK呢享受着极高的AI存储溢价呃

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估值都超过55倍了哈

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但是SK海力士在HBM和高端AI存储领域的纯度更高

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一旦啊海力士ADR在美股落地

202
00:10:36,940 --> 00:10:39,340
那些过去受合规限制

203
00:10:39,340 --> 00:10:42,659
无法购买韩股的美国本土主力机构

204
00:10:42,659 --> 00:10:44,059
什么养老金之类的

205
00:10:44,059 --> 00:10:47,668
几乎必然会通过抛售部分闪迪

206
00:10:47,668 --> 00:10:50,668
甚至可能美光科技的股票来腾出仓位

207
00:10:50,668 --> 00:10:52,688
转而呢配置SK海力士

208
00:10:52,688 --> 00:10:58,028
所以手里要是持有这个闪迪或者西部数据股票的朋友

209
00:10:58,028 --> 00:11:00,908
一定要关注SK海力士的每股落地时间

210
00:11:00,908 --> 00:11:02,399
提前做好准备

211
00:11:04,799 --> 00:11:05,720
纯属无辜哈

212
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,720
公司5月营收数额132亿美元

213
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,450
同比增长了30%

214
00:11:10,450 --> 00:11:11,529
分析师预计

215
00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:15,269
公司第二季度销售额将会继续增长35%

216
00:11:15,269 --> 00:11:19,509
台积电一直对全球AI芯片需求持乐观态度

217
00:11:19,509 --> 00:11:23,149
今年4月份就已经上调了全年销售指引

218
00:11:23,490 --> 00:11:26,690
强劲的基本面可以说毫无瑕疵

219
00:11:26,690 --> 00:11:29,659
下跌纯粹就是无奈被大盘拖着走

220
00:11:29,659 --> 00:11:33,659
唯独能够在今天惨淡实况中逆势突围的啊

221
00:11:33,659 --> 00:11:35,840
只有那些世界杯概念股啦

222
00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:41,318
呃昨天刚提到的博彩股DKNG今天又逆势上涨了4.35%

223
00:11:41,318 --> 00:11:43,619
他的预测平台的亮眼数据

224
00:11:43,619 --> 00:11:48,440
配合这个即将到来的长达六周体育博彩盛宴

225
00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,149
让他成为德银等机构眼中的短期核心催化剂

226
00:11:53,149 --> 00:11:54,669
同属世界杯概念

227
00:11:54,669 --> 00:11:58,190
德国兵沪的股价今天早盘也一度暴涨了9%

228
00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:00,669
可惜后面被大盘给拖下去了哈

229
00:12:00,669 --> 00:12:01,649
不过没有关系

230
00:12:01,649 --> 00:12:03,470
股价后续咱们还是看涨

231
00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:06,460
应该有希望去挑战三方年限的

232
00:12:06,460 --> 00:12:09,100
作为世界杯主要赞助商

233
00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:13,299
传统消费巨头可口可乐股价今天呢涨了2.77%

234
00:12:13,299 --> 00:12:15,068
创下了历史新高

235
00:12:15,068 --> 00:12:18,308
美银昨天周二发布的最新报告指出

236
00:12:18,308 --> 00:12:22,489
参考1994年同样在美国举办的世界杯经验呃

237
00:12:22,489 --> 00:12:26,928
对于饮料需求的拉动不仅局限于比赛的月份

238
00:12:26,928 --> 00:12:29,288
分销商在前期的库存积压

239
00:12:29,288 --> 00:12:30,730
还有后期的补充

240
00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:34,570
将会使利好呢贯穿5月到8月

241
00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:40,009
甚至有望拉动美国6月整体零售销售增速提升0.3%

242
00:12:40,009 --> 00:12:44,350
这种有实体消费与博彩带来的确定性

243
00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:49,629
现金流繁育属性就成为了今天美股市场中最后的避风港

244
00:12:49,629 --> 00:12:52,708
所以可能会有一个局部狂欢出现哈

245
00:12:52,708 --> 00:12:55,059
在下周美联储会议之前

246
00:12:55,059 --> 00:12:59,340
那美股市场大概率就会维持目前这种呃高波动

247
00:12:59,340 --> 00:13:01,419
低信息的交易模式哈

248
00:13:01,419 --> 00:13:04,549
可能要等到嗯美联储会议之后

249
00:13:04,549 --> 00:13:08,318
市场呢才会把风险重新定价完成

250
00:13:08,318 --> 00:13:09,759
所以在此之前

251
00:13:09,759 --> 00:13:13,019
一切的上涨咱们都视为超跌反弹

252
00:13:13,019 --> 00:13:14,519
而不是反转哈

253
00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:15,639
昨天我曾说过

254
00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:17,480
这个美股可能要反弹

255
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:21,200
虽然今天因为伊朗开打那个事情了

256
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,360
反弹失败了

257
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,590
但是呢我还是继续认为

258
00:13:24,590 --> 00:13:29,259
美股会在这条50日均线附近出现这个超跌反弹的

259
00:13:29,259 --> 00:13:32,000
所以呢不宜的这个位置过度的看空哈

260
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:33,179
目前来说还是这样

261
00:13:33,179 --> 00:13:36,220
虽然这里并不是一个绝对的低点

262
00:13:36,220 --> 00:13:38,500
但是在这里继续做空的话

263
00:13:38,500 --> 00:13:41,940
风险会比较大行今天我们就说到这里

264
00:13:41,940 --> 00:13:43,779
那我们明天见拜拜

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