【Couch Investor】亚马逊：为什么巨额资本开支下我依然不担心？

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嘿

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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在今天的视频中

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我们有几个需要讨论的内容

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可能会出现短暂的软件名称轮动

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我们看到科技AI名称在2025年末出现了轮动

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转向更具价值领域

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让我们看看这个情况

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当然还要分析市场中的优质标的

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其中一个买进后长期持有的股票

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Stockwise 近几日表现相当不错

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但长期表现一直落后大盘

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尽管它是一家非常优秀的公司

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就像我们昨天看到的谷歌一样

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如果我们要分析DCF模型

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可能估值偏高

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我们稍后会详细分析

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当然我们讨论的是亚马逊

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现在观察市场情况

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我们可以看到以下现象

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市场走势相对平稳

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软件类股票目前小幅下跌

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但接下来你会看到

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软件股应基于前期数据回调

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在之前的波动中

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稍后会详细说明

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至于其他板块

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MD指数呈现上涨

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英伟达股价上涨

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博通股价上涨

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我们看到大量上涨的股票

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这些股票今日表现异常强劲

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金融板块受压明显

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这更多涉及风险因素

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当前主要风险因素

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稍后我会展示油价走势

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令人意外的是

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实际上加密货币

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以比特币为例

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以太坊

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Solana、瑞波币

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它们目前全部上涨

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若观察大型科技公司

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多数持平或下跌，唯独谷歌上涨

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我们先看半导体板块

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我可能先暂停一下

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所有半导体公司今日上涨

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新思科技

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大多数股票今日上涨

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诺瓦云涨幅达4.5%

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如果你现在正在观看这个

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是的

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我确实卖掉了我的铁矿石股份

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嗯今天

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至于金融科技

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其中大部分再次下跌

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因为我们刚刚提到金融

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如果滞胀风险可能影响

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当然这里的金融科技公司

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但如果你再次观察 Klarna 运营商的表现

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一家公司股价下跌

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Klarna 上涨了3.6%

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Banko Inter 上涨1%

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One Hood 上涨1%

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这可能是因为加密货币上涨

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然后还有一些其他绿色板块

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但这里大多数仍为红色

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至于大盘走势

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我们确实有亮点

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再次上涨40.8%

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这种 hymns 与 over 之间的爱恨关系

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这种争论持续不断

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我们将继续观察

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但结论是肯定的

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你看到一些红色股票

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你也有绿色股票

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我认为人们预期会全盘看跌

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无论怎样是的

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我们一开盘就大幅下跌

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因为查看当天油价走势

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嗯

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从周末后油价开始波动

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此后我们触及116美元

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此后已回落至96美元

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我们知道周五收盘时约91美元

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所以是的

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好的

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石油仍上涨4.9%

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但涨幅远超此

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仍有传言和报告流传

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一些船只通过霍尔木兹海峡

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尽管伊朗

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声称其关闭

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仍有船只通过该海峡

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我认为友方表示将派军支援

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以保障油轮通行

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我们将继续观察局势

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当然可能长期维持95-100美元

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这当然不理想

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但任何积极信号和头条消息

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看起来船只正在移动

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我认为这会像往常一样迅速影响油价

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在下行和上行方面我们都观察到了

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我不认为会发生在明天或后天

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但可能会更早发生

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而不是更晚

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在持续一年后我们再继续

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甲骨文在上周五晚间发布的报告中作出了回应

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他们发表了以下内容

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近期媒体对Abine站点的报道

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抱歉

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如果我读错了名字那将是错误的

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首先

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鲁塞奥与甲骨文步调一致

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以创纪录速度交付全球最大AI数据中心

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两栋建筑已全面运营

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其余校园建设按计划推进

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其次甲骨文已完成额外4.5吉瓦的租赁

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以兑现对OpenAI的承诺

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我们持续评估全球站点以满足OCI需求增长

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通过持续与优秀合作伙伴和客户合作

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所有这一切的美妙之处在于，市场收盘后

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甲骨文将公布季度财报

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我们将分析本季度完成的工作

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查看他们的指引内容

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并在电话会议中提供更多评论

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是的

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当然这也是新云玩家今日上涨的原因

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或大多数今日上涨

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如果我们看这里的数据

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可以看到软件名称严重超卖

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随后出现了强劲反弹

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回顾此前发生的情况

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当这种情况出现时

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可以看到以下现象

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极少能持续

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一天后

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两天后

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三天后

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平均来看我们始终处于低位

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30%时间

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20%时间我们转为上涨

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现在

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是的

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我们看到部分名称反弹

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这些名称

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否则

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多数仍非常廉价

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若看自由现金流

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收益率PE

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你随便说

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这些名字太廉价了

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其中一些尚未公布季度财报

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很多已经公布了

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我们已经看到

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现在我们看到了表现

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一个销售团队

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例如

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价格低廉

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但增长仍未显现

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我们仍未收到公司发出的积极信号

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我们预期增长会加速

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增长仍未到来

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接下来

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对于其他公司

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它们仍在快速增长

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没错

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现在是服务阶段

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例如增速超过20%

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但同样如此

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20%的增长远低于之前水平

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市场已大幅拉低这些股票至我认为的水平

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好的

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你知道我们有很多疑问

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但此时或许已低到不可忽视

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你怎么看

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我们能否看到软件股复苏

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还是只是短暂反弹

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请在下方评论区告诉我

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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当然你知道该怎么做

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他按了按钮

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我们非常感谢

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如果能进一步支持我

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请查看描述中的链接并顶置评论获取最佳股票

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现在我将前往完整账户/f slash goch投资者

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非常感谢

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当然还要感谢财政AI频道赞助商

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如果你想尝试

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这里所有内容均由财政AI提供

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描述中附有链接

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顶置评论可享15%折扣

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如果你是新用户

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前两周可免费获得财政Pro

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以亚马逊为例，过去一年

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股票上涨5.1%

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过去一个月出现小幅反弹

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反弹约9%

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今年以来股价仍下跌3.4%

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过去五年表现

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股票上涨了45%

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四十

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大约6%左右

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这是一家市值两万三千亿美元的公司

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该公司市销率32倍，前向市盈率128.1倍

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就像我们昨天做的谷歌视频分析

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看看自由现金流

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如果观察这里的自由现金流倍数

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价格高得离谱

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为什么呢？巨额资本支出增加

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2026年计划投入2000亿美元

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以亚马逊这样的公司为例

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当我们看利润率时

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过去12个月的自由现金流利润率仅为1.1%

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因此观察利润率

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我们可以看到运营利润率在过去几年有所改善

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或11.2%的自由现金流利润率

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在2024年

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我们曾达到8%的峰值

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此后开始下降

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当然同期资本支出大幅增加

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这意味着我们并未达到1%

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现在仅为1%

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回想2022年二季度

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所以取2022年二季度数据

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往前推四个季度

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自由现金流利润率-6.1%

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这就是该公司当时的自由现金流利润率

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是的

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此后利润率正在改善

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问题是

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是否会跌至这个水平

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这就是问题所在

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我认为如今公司业务状况比之前更好

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但确实存在一些风险

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在2026年

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亚马逊可能面临自由现金流利润率转负

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00:09:12,149 --> 00:09:12,950
在此期间

239
00:09:12,950 --> 00:09:14,629
毛利率上升

240
00:09:14,629 --> 00:09:15,470
并向右移动

241
00:09:15,470 --> 00:09:16,990
刚超50%

242
00:09:16,990 --> 00:09:18,379
净利润率

243
00:09:18,379 --> 00:09:22,620
10.9%且经营活动现金流1390亿美元

244
00:09:22,620 --> 00:09:24,559
95亿美元

245
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:28,769
公司如今处于远优于

246
00:09:28,769 --> 00:09:31,230
三到年前的状态

247
00:09:31,230 --> 00:09:32,129
三到年前

248
00:09:32,129 --> 00:09:37,480
公司当时产生355亿美元经营活动现金流

249
00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:38,779
我们尚未达到百亿美元

250
00:09:38,779 --> 00:09:42,179
接近1400亿美元

251
00:09:42,179 --> 00:09:44,940
我们也知道在未来几年内

252
00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:47,409
这将是一家非常

253
00:09:47,409 --> 00:09:48,629
运作方式非常完善

254
00:09:48,629 --> 00:09:51,029
比以往任何时候都更高效

255
00:09:51,029 --> 00:09:52,090
通过机器人技术

256
00:09:52,090 --> 00:09:53,169
通过自动化

257
00:09:53,169 --> 00:09:54,289
因此自然而然

258
00:09:54,289 --> 00:10:01,240
人们会认为这家公司的整体盈利能力应该会持续增长

259
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,080
在右侧

260
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,120
但短期情况如何呢

261
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:07,159
短期情况如何

262
00:10:07,159 --> 00:10:08,090
短期来看

263
00:10:08,090 --> 00:10:09,509
其实这就是

264
00:10:09,509 --> 00:10:12,110
蓝色条形图代表自由现金流

265
00:10:12,110 --> 00:10:17,389
你可以清楚看到亚马逊过去现金流一直不稳定

266
00:10:17,389 --> 00:10:18,590
过去两年间

267
00:10:18,590 --> 00:10:19,529
那是非常好的

268
00:10:19,529 --> 00:10:24,830
三年前达到220亿美元，2024年和2025年达328亿美元

269
00:10:24,830 --> 00:10:27,669
仅76亿美元

270
00:10:27,669 --> 00:10:30,190
因为看这里的资本支出增长

271
00:10:30,190 --> 00:10:31,769
通常增加130%

272
00:10:31,769 --> 00:10:33,990
18亿美元

273
00:10:33,990 --> 00:10:38,269
查看2026财年自由现金流预测

274
00:10:38,269 --> 00:10:40,850
负187亿美元

275
00:10:40,850 --> 00:10:43,360
但到2027财年

276
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,450
出现巨大反弹

277
00:10:46,450 --> 00:10:49,110
达到510亿美元

278
00:10:49,110 --> 00:10:51,029
到2028年

279
00:10:51,029 --> 00:10:53,330
829亿美元

280
00:10:53,330 --> 00:10:54,230
目前市场

281
00:10:54,230 --> 00:10:54,629
我说

282
00:10:54,629 --> 00:10:55,070
好的

283
00:10:55,070 --> 00:11:00,230
似乎2026年将是资本支出峰值

284
00:11:00,230 --> 00:11:04,970
而在2027年随着AWS加速增长

285
00:11:04,970 --> 00:11:07,559
资本支出可能不会大幅增长

286
00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:08,360
我们

287
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,299
或应预期自由现金流将

288
00:11:12,299 --> 00:11:13,840
达到新纪录

289
00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,100
两者差距相当大

290
00:11:17,100 --> 00:11:19,779
其中大部分将来自

291
00:11:19,779 --> 00:11:23,360
该公司预计将变得极度盈利

292
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:24,080
并非来自

293
00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:29,220
他们突然营收增长20%之类的情况

294
00:11:29,220 --> 00:11:30,460
一切形势逆转

295
00:11:30,460 --> 00:11:35,879
2026财年营收预计增长12.5%

296
00:11:35,879 --> 00:11:38,240
2027财年11.4%

297
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,259
2028财年再12.5%

298
00:11:41,259 --> 00:11:45,159
看这万亿级现金流

299
00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:47,379
这是当前预期

300
00:11:47,379 --> 00:11:49,820
这家公司可能将成为首家

301
00:11:49,820 --> 00:11:52,859
这将带来超过一万亿的收入

302
00:11:52,859 --> 00:11:56,929
现在应该在财政年2028年发生

303
00:11:56,929 --> 00:11:59,029
推动增长的主要因素是什么

304
00:11:59,029 --> 00:11:59,750
如你所知

305
00:11:59,750 --> 00:12:01,289
这将是AWS

306
00:12:01,289 --> 00:12:03,809
我们已经看到AWS的增长

307
00:12:03,809 --> 00:12:04,899
加速增长

308
00:12:04,899 --> 00:12:09,940
市场仍预期这种增长将持续加速至少两个季度

309
00:12:09,940 --> 00:12:14,860
尽管可能更多因为我们知道他们持有熵科技股份

310
00:12:14,860 --> 00:12:19,230
我认为该股份已从80亿美元增至600亿美元

311
00:12:19,230 --> 00:12:21,549
我们知道他们投资了Tropic和Tropics

312
00:12:21,549 --> 00:12:22,149
但这是一个客户

313
00:12:22,149 --> 00:12:27,679
但现在我们也知道OpenAI将成为AWS客户

314
00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,009
亚马逊最近加大了投资

315
00:12:30,009 --> 00:12:31,149
当时有相关公告

316
00:12:31,149 --> 00:12:34,710
OpenAI投入巨额资金可能更多

317
00:12:34,710 --> 00:12:37,269
我估计高达500亿美元

318
00:12:37,269 --> 00:12:37,830
所以是的

319
00:12:37,830 --> 00:12:42,509
AWS的加速增长现在可以持续

320
00:12:42,509 --> 00:12:43,470
别忘了

321
00:12:43,470 --> 00:12:46,809
今年他们将在资本支出上投入2000亿美元

322
00:12:46,809 --> 00:12:48,970
但这不是问题

323
00:12:48,970 --> 00:12:53,649
我们可以在26年末或27年初启动

324
00:12:53,649 --> 00:12:56,659
这些需要时间观察

325
00:12:56,659 --> 00:12:59,159
投资回报是否良好仍待验证

326
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:02,318
因为这始终是当前的核心问题

327
00:13:02,318 --> 00:13:06,298
实际上我们有安迪·杰西在谈论OpenAI合作

328
00:13:06,298 --> 00:13:07,578
2000亿美元

329
00:13:07,578 --> 00:13:10,490
许多投资界人士表示

330
00:13:10,490 --> 00:13:11,009
天啊

331
00:13:11,009 --> 00:13:12,139
这可不是小数目

332
00:13:12,139 --> 00:13:15,659
我刚才提到这可能是答案的一部分

333
00:13:15,659 --> 00:13:16,899
你有明确的预期吗

334
00:13:16,899 --> 00:13:19,958
如果这是此类交易的话

335
00:13:19,958 --> 00:13:20,458
嗯

336
00:13:20,458 --> 00:13:22,509
当时的可能性

337
00:13:22,830 --> 00:13:23,370
是的

338
00:13:23,370 --> 00:13:26,529
我和萨姆团队已讨论许久

339
00:13:26,529 --> 00:13:28,389
这非常明确

340
00:13:28,389 --> 00:13:31,259
当时在我们的预测中

341
00:13:31,259 --> 00:13:32,100
你知道的

342
00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:33,799
正如我在电话中所说

343
00:13:34,519 --> 00:13:39,039
当我们宣布今年将投入2000亿美元资本支出时

344
00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:41,779
我们收到强烈需求信号

345
00:13:41,779 --> 00:13:43,820
对这些有明确预期

346
00:13:43,820 --> 00:13:45,620
这就是典型案例

347
00:13:45,620 --> 00:13:51,889
记住2026年的资本支出用于基础设施建设

348
00:13:51,889 --> 00:13:53,929
大约18到24个月后投入使用

349
00:13:53,929 --> 00:13:58,360
我们非常有信心能实现变现

350
00:13:58,360 --> 00:13:58,919
我们投入的资金

351
00:13:58,919 --> 00:14:00,019
我们将喜欢这里的经济形势

352
00:14:00,019 --> 00:14:02,539
这家企业涉及两百亿美金的业务

353
00:14:02,539 --> 00:14:07,600
这是未来18到24个月的基建规划，再次说明

354
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:12,559
公司目前已有大量在手订单

355
00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:13,139
在项目管道中

356
00:14:13,139 --> 00:14:14,149
在待执行协议中

357
00:14:14,149 --> 00:14:16,809
但未来几年将有哪些新动向

358
00:14:16,809 --> 00:14:17,429
二十七

359
00:14:17,429 --> 00:14:17,909
二十八

360
00:14:17,909 --> 00:14:18,980
二十九

361
00:14:18,980 --> 00:14:22,059
现在人们可能会感到惊讶

362
00:14:22,059 --> 00:14:25,419
若观察全球云市场领导地位

363
00:14:25,419 --> 00:14:26,669
亚马逊AWS

364
00:14:26,669 --> 00:14:27,470
微软

365
00:14:27,470 --> 00:14:29,250
Azure和谷歌云

366
00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:33,629
当然我们知道它是最大的，但增速不及其他

367
00:14:33,629 --> 00:14:34,279
好的

368
00:14:34,279 --> 00:14:36,240
Azure也位列第二

369
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,879
而谷歌云增长最快

370
00:14:38,879 --> 00:14:39,799
但这主要是因为

371
00:14:39,799 --> 00:14:43,669
其营收规模仍不及其他

372
00:14:43,669 --> 00:14:48,589
但AWS增长必须持续加速

373
00:14:48,589 --> 00:14:48,869
因为

374
00:14:48,869 --> 00:14:51,009
我们确实看到

375
00:14:51,009 --> 00:14:52,749
市场份额有所流失

376
00:14:52,749 --> 00:14:56,370
但作为行业龙头

377
00:14:56,370 --> 00:14:57,450
我们已观察到

378
00:14:57,450 --> 00:14:58,769
可能存在一些疲软

379
00:14:58,769 --> 00:14:59,950
而竞争对手尚未

380
00:14:59,950 --> 00:15:01,629
这就是现状

381
00:15:01,629 --> 00:15:06,840
尤其是谷歌云正迅速抢占更多份额

382
00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,639
市场份额激增

383
00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:13,480
AWS近期增长加速的原因是什么

384
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:13,759
这

385
00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:15,470
当然离不开熵简科技

386
00:15:15,470 --> 00:15:19,169
这些是X平台发现的几则头条

387
00:15:19,169 --> 00:15:22,450
熵简科技营收接近二十亿美元

388
00:15:22,450 --> 00:15:26,730
与五角大楼争夺企业AI订阅市场半壁江山

389
00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:29,659
熵简科技领跑企业级AI应用

390
00:15:29,659 --> 00:15:32,100
下载量十日内增长四倍

391
00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:34,019
安卓商店榜首

392
00:15:34,019 --> 00:15:35,578
iOS商店榜首

393
00:15:35,578 --> 00:15:37,438
谷歌搜索趋势飙升

394
00:15:37,438 --> 00:15:39,759
当然还有亚马逊

395
00:15:39,759 --> 00:15:42,698
是熵简科技及Two and Tropic的重要投资者

396
00:15:42,698 --> 00:15:44,220
也是亚马逊大客户

397
00:15:44,220 --> 00:15:50,429
所有迹象表明AWS将持续加速增长

398
00:15:50,429 --> 00:15:54,710
我们还知悉在手订单同比激增40%至244亿美元

399
00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:56,220
444亿美元

400
00:15:56,220 --> 00:16:00,149
Graviton和Anium芯片营收突破十亿美元

401
00:16:00,149 --> 00:16:04,809
亚马逊Bedrock客户支出环比增长60%

402
00:16:04,809 --> 00:16:07,559
正如最近财报所披露的

403
00:16:07,559 --> 00:16:09,379
但这并非全部因为

404
00:16:09,379 --> 00:16:14,769
众所周知，亚马逊增长最快的业务线同时也是利润率最高的

405
00:16:14,769 --> 00:16:17,578
我预计这种情况在未来可预见的时间内将持续

406
00:16:17,578 --> 00:16:20,458
这也意味着在未来

407
00:16:20,458 --> 00:16:26,409
亚马逊预计将在上季度突破峰值盈利能力

408
00:16:26,409 --> 00:16:29,539
广告业务我们看到同比增长23.3%

409
00:16:29,539 --> 00:16:31,980
三年同比增长至21.3亿美元

410
00:16:31,980 --> 00:16:32,899
他们2025年单年新增广告收入120亿美元

411
00:16:32,899 --> 00:16:37,789
Prime视频广告已覆盖全球3.15亿观众

412
00:16:37,789 --> 00:16:42,779
至于电力产能

413
00:16:42,779 --> 00:16:44,100
过去12个月新增3.9吉瓦电力

414
00:16:44,100 --> 00:16:47,580
并计划在2027年再次翻倍

415
00:16:47,580 --> 00:16:52,519
如今已成为1500亿美元的零售业务

416
00:16:52,519 --> 00:16:57,059
第三方电力

417
00:16:57,059 --> 00:16:58,019
61%的销量来自独立卖家

418
00:16:58,019 --> 00:17:02,759
当然

419
00:17:02,759 --> 00:17:03,340
当我们谈论亚马逊

420
00:17:03,340 --> 00:17:04,480
我们必须提到他们的

421
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,140
让我们说

422
00:17:06,140 --> 00:17:06,779
其他业务板块

423
00:17:06,779 --> 00:17:08,200
无论是医疗领域

424
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,690
还是 Zoox

425
00:17:09,690 --> 00:17:10,890
真实投资

426
00:17:10,890 --> 00:17:11,710
或者

427
00:17:11,710 --> 00:17:12,309
当然还有卫星业务

428
00:17:12,309 --> 00:17:14,069
所谓星链竞争对手

429
00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:16,670
所有这些都将未来纳入业务范畴

430
00:17:16,670 --> 00:17:21,690
你现在为这些投入支付了多少

431
00:17:21,690 --> 00:17:25,650
因此如果我们看当前基准情形

432
00:17:25,650 --> 00:17:30,910
我们可以看到下行风险为2%

433
00:17:30,910 --> 00:17:33,609
3.1个百分点

434
00:17:33,609 --> 00:17:35,349
为何如此，因为收入

435
00:17:35,349 --> 00:17:37,650
我认为这符合基准情形

436
00:17:37,650 --> 00:17:39,990
收入增长

437
00:17:39,990 --> 00:17:40,888
第一年12.5%

438
00:17:40,888 --> 00:17:41,489
5%

439
00:17:41,489 --> 00:17:43,229
第一年增长12.5%

440
00:17:43,229 --> 00:17:44,209
随后11.4%

441
00:17:44,209 --> 00:17:45,429
然后小幅加速

442
00:17:45,429 --> 00:17:49,779
这前三项基于分析师预期

443
00:17:49,779 --> 00:17:53,779
之后两年保持12%增速

444
00:17:53,779 --> 00:17:55,640
随后增速放缓

445
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:56,240
之后

446
00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,039
现在讨论的是超万亿营收规模

447
00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:00,539
你可能会说

448
00:18:00,539 --> 00:18:00,720
好吧

449
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:02,140
这速度稍快了些

450
00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:02,619
好吧

451
00:18:02,619 --> 00:18:05,190
我们可以将其改为九，然后再八

452
00:18:05,190 --> 00:18:06,309
然后它会进入

453
00:18:06,309 --> 00:18:07,190
比如说好吧

454
00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:08,589
假设保持在八不变

455
00:18:08,589 --> 00:18:10,359
在可预见的未来

456
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,920
我们仍预计会出现20

457
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:14,859
六个百分点的下行压力

458
00:18:14,859 --> 00:18:17,009
这是今天的隐含股价

459
00:18:17,009 --> 00:18:18,209
基于这些输入数据

460
00:18:18,209 --> 00:18:21,469
基于自由现金流利润率将为负

461
00:18:21,469 --> 00:18:26,619
从-2.3%到达到分析师今年的预期

462
00:18:26,619 --> 00:18:29,119
明年为5.5%

463
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:29,460
再次

464
00:18:29,460 --> 00:18:32,730
以达到分析师预期，同理第三年

465
00:18:32,730 --> 00:18:38,019
随后会改善并达到9%的峰值

466
00:18:38,019 --> 00:18:42,400
我应该告诉我还是把峰值设为10%在这里

467
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:42,980
好的

468
00:18:42,980 --> 00:18:44,500
我们也可以这样做

469
00:18:44,500 --> 00:18:46,779
仍为13.2%

470
00:18:46,779 --> 00:18:49,140
这只是为了展示自由

471
00:18:49,140 --> 00:18:51,289
在这种情况下有自由现金流

472
00:18:51,289 --> 00:18:53,930
这就是当前业务状况

473
00:18:53,930 --> 00:18:55,369
这就是你支付的价格

474
00:18:55,369 --> 00:18:56,789
那看多的情况如何

475
00:18:56,789 --> 00:18:57,210
嗯

476
00:18:57,210 --> 00:18:57,809
看多情景

477
00:18:57,809 --> 00:19:00,930
基于我这里输入的数据再次

478
00:19:00,930 --> 00:19:01,609
这就是看多情景

479
00:19:01,609 --> 00:19:03,829
这里可以稍微激进一些

480
00:19:03,829 --> 00:19:06,650
自由现金流利润率实际为0%

481
00:19:06,650 --> 00:19:07,609
而非负值

482
00:19:07,609 --> 00:19:09,250
远高于2%或更低

483
00:19:09,250 --> 00:19:11,219
之前看到的2.3%

484
00:19:11,219 --> 00:19:13,219
随后迅速恢复

485
00:19:13,219 --> 00:19:15,970
同样这里峰值为10%

486
00:19:15,970 --> 00:19:18,549
增长速度也更快

487
00:19:18,549 --> 00:19:20,849
因此我们看到7点

488
00:19:20,849 --> 00:19:22,279
2%的上行空间

489
00:19:22,279 --> 00:19:23,619
这有可能吗

490
00:19:23,619 --> 00:19:24,279
是的

491
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:24,839
这是可能的

492
00:19:24,839 --> 00:19:25,660
这就是看多情景

493
00:19:25,660 --> 00:19:27,220
理论上是可能的

494
00:19:27,220 --> 00:19:32,200
但比现实情景更乐观

495
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,619
一切按计划进行

496
00:19:34,619 --> 00:19:35,680
在此情景下

497
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:40,420
亚马逊表现远超预期

498
00:19:40,420 --> 00:19:42,680
可能还有OpenAI等

499
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,229
以及类似情况作为看空情景

500
00:19:45,229 --> 00:19:46,108
不幸的是这里

501
00:19:46,108 --> 00:19:48,019
情况看起来并不乐观

502
00:19:48,019 --> 00:19:51,599
因为这里可以看到下行风险39.6%

503
00:19:51,599 --> 00:19:56,789
为什么呢？今年自由现金流利润率更差

504
00:19:57,150 --> 00:19:58,490
至于未来几年

505
00:19:58,490 --> 00:20:02,349
复苏速度远不及预期

506
00:20:02,349 --> 00:20:05,269
随后我们达到8%的峰值

507
00:20:05,269 --> 00:20:10,329
营收增长前三年也慢于预期

508
00:20:10,329 --> 00:20:11,430
然后是的

509
00:20:11,430 --> 00:20:14,240
我们将保持在约9%左右

510
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,500
这就是隐含股价130的计算方式

511
00:20:17,500 --> 00:20:19,439
目前是2%

512
00:20:19,439 --> 00:20:21,259
39.6%

513
00:20:21,259 --> 00:20:22,769
这是下行风险

514
00:20:22,769 --> 00:20:24,410
这是看跌情景

515
00:20:24,410 --> 00:20:28,730
这意味着所有投入的回报并不理想

516
00:20:30,490 --> 00:20:33,130
也许OpenAI未能成功

517
00:20:33,130 --> 00:20:34,069
等等

518
00:20:34,069 --> 00:20:35,979
也许软件行业在衰退

519
00:20:35,979 --> 00:20:38,818
因此使用AWS的公司减少

520
00:20:38,818 --> 00:20:41,909
这可能就是这种情景

521
00:20:41,909 --> 00:20:44,108
我不确定是否现实

522
00:20:44,108 --> 00:20:46,349
但即使在看涨情景下

523
00:20:46,349 --> 00:20:48,390
你可能认为我还不够乐观

524
00:20:48,390 --> 00:20:49,650
看看利润率

525
00:20:49,650 --> 00:20:51,230
应该更高

526
00:20:51,230 --> 00:20:52,369
也许可以

527
00:20:52,369 --> 00:20:53,210
也许可以

528
00:20:53,210 --> 00:20:55,589
如果你想构建一个故事

529
00:20:55,589 --> 00:20:56,789
也许在第六年

530
00:20:56,789 --> 00:20:58,809
我们达到10%

531
00:20:58,809 --> 00:20:59,809
第七年

532
00:20:59,809 --> 00:21:01,369
10.5%

533
00:21:01,369 --> 00:21:03,430
随后达到11%左右

534
00:21:03,430 --> 00:21:04,130
因为

535
00:21:04,130 --> 00:21:05,890
机器人效率提升

536
00:21:05,890 --> 00:21:09,500
AI代理及其他技术持续攀升

537
00:21:09,500 --> 00:21:10,279
然后

538
00:21:10,279 --> 00:21:13,119
然后你会看到突然跃升至3%

539
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:14,799
这里增长5%

540
00:21:14,799 --> 00:21:15,680
我不再深入

541
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,259
营收增长触及自由现金流利润率

542
00:21:19,259 --> 00:21:19,740
再次

543
00:21:19,740 --> 00:21:20,640
在看涨情况下

544
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:21,819
这是可能的

545
00:21:21,819 --> 00:21:27,589
如果亚马逊未来成为超级高效企业

546
00:21:27,589 --> 00:21:29,299
如果使用无人机

547
00:21:29,299 --> 00:21:30,420
自动驾驶汽车

548
00:21:30,420 --> 00:21:31,259
更多机器人技术

549
00:21:31,259 --> 00:21:31,900
这类创新

550
00:21:31,900 --> 00:21:33,859
可以全天候运行的事务

551
00:21:33,859 --> 00:21:36,579
全年三百六十五天无休

552
00:21:36,579 --> 00:21:37,599
好的

553
00:21:37,599 --> 00:21:41,059
或许这是你获得三五点收益的原因

554
00:21:41,059 --> 00:21:45,559
在牛市情景下基准案有百分之二的上行空间

555
00:21:45,559 --> 00:21:46,250
是的

556
00:21:46,250 --> 00:21:49,490
或许我们可以为今日达成公允价值

557
00:21:49,490 --> 00:21:51,849
如果我在这里稍作调整

558
00:21:51,849 --> 00:21:53,430
但这就是DCF模型的特点

559
00:21:53,430 --> 00:21:56,799
你可以通过修改数字来契合故事逻辑

560
00:21:56,799 --> 00:22:00,559
符合你偏好的故事结局

561
00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:01,400
你渴望的结果

562
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,960
所以我认为设置三种情景

563
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,288
牛市、熊市和基准情景

564
00:22:06,288 --> 00:22:07,669
我认为这是最公平的

565
00:22:07,669 --> 00:22:09,689
至少能获得三种不同结果

566
00:22:09,689 --> 00:22:13,309
或许可以讲述三种不同故事

567
00:22:13,309 --> 00:22:15,910
然后由你自行判断

568
00:22:15,910 --> 00:22:19,299
现在看来由于我们仅关注自由现金流

569
00:22:19,299 --> 00:22:21,259
既然这家公司是亚马逊

570
00:22:21,259 --> 00:22:21,900
是Meta

571
00:22:21,900 --> 00:22:23,200
是谷歌和微软

572
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,259
它们正在大量投入资本开支

573
00:22:25,259 --> 00:22:28,179
这确实影响了自由现金流生成

574
00:22:28,179 --> 00:22:30,878
或许一旦停止高额支出

575
00:22:30,878 --> 00:22:33,679
反弹幅度可能远超当前

576
00:22:33,679 --> 00:22:37,599
但我的任务只是展示数据本身

577
00:22:37,599 --> 00:22:40,319
我会尝试找到方法确保

578
00:22:40,319 --> 00:22:44,000
所有人都能接触这类DCF分析

579
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,160
现在当我们审视这段内容

580
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:46,559
就在这里

581
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:49,940
可以看到似乎在约一百九十六点

582
00:22:49,940 --> 00:22:50,619
六美元处见底

583
00:22:50,619 --> 00:22:52,959
日线图显示严重超卖

584
00:22:52,959 --> 00:22:56,378
随后迅速强劲反弹

585
00:22:56,378 --> 00:22:59,880
或许将完全填补这一缺口

586
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:00,500
就在这里

587
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:02,539
发生在二月伊始

588
00:23:02,539 --> 00:23:03,779
基于财报数据

589
00:23:03,779 --> 00:23:04,650
嗯

590
00:23:04,650 --> 00:23:06,950
财报发布后的市场反应

591
00:23:06,950 --> 00:23:10,490
财报前股价达两百三十八美元

592
00:23:10,490 --> 00:23:13,400
一度跌至两百美元以下

593
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,430
现已回升至中间水平

594
00:23:16,430 --> 00:23:17,730
在结束视频前

595
00:23:17,730 --> 00:23:18,609
查看热力图

596
00:23:18,609 --> 00:23:20,849
观察过去一周的变化

597
00:23:20,849 --> 00:23:22,838
或近几周情况很有趣

598
00:23:22,838 --> 00:23:27,138
突然转向这类股票

599
00:23:27,138 --> 00:23:27,618
就在这里

600
00:23:27,618 --> 00:23:31,359
这些是在过去十二个月内深陷红色的名称

601
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,160
这些现在变得更绿的名称就在这里

602
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:35,200
但过去一周

603
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,759
不知为何市场决定认为

604
00:23:37,759 --> 00:23:40,349
其实我们确实喜欢这些名称

605
00:23:40,349 --> 00:23:40,930
现在

606
00:23:40,930 --> 00:23:42,210
还能持续多久

607
00:23:42,210 --> 00:23:43,049
我不知道

608
00:23:43,049 --> 00:23:45,699
但市场波动剧烈

609
00:23:45,699 --> 00:23:47,098
这可能非常令人疲惫

610
00:23:47,098 --> 00:23:51,910
我知道有时候最好的做法就是完全不行动

611
00:23:51,910 --> 00:23:53,390
总的来说就是这样

612
00:23:53,390 --> 00:23:54,230
在这段视频中

613
00:23:54,230 --> 00:23:55,109
你对什么看法

614
00:23:55,109 --> 00:23:55,750
亚马逊

615
00:23:55,750 --> 00:23:56,750
仍然值得持有

616
00:23:56,750 --> 00:23:58,029
仍然是设置后忘记的类型

617
00:23:58,029 --> 00:23:58,809
类型的名称

618
00:23:58,809 --> 00:23:59,549
在下方告诉我

619
00:23:59,549 --> 00:24:00,630
在下方评论区

620
00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:01,250
你有在买入

621
00:24:01,250 --> 00:24:03,039
或许也是一些软件名称

622
00:24:03,039 --> 00:24:04,960
也请告诉我们并检查

623
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,900
Fiscal ai 享受15%折扣

624
00:24:06,900 --> 00:24:10,859
链接在描述中，下期评论区互动

625
00:24:10,859 --> 00:24:11,700
再见

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