BV1UDf4BuESP · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,580 你将会翻转我的煎饼 2 00:00:01,580 --> 00:00:05,080 今天公开计数中有九万两千美元待定 3 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:06,299 绝对是个大日子 4 00:00:06,299 --> 00:00:07,400 简直是突如其来 5 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,519 我们那里有很多大事发生 6 00:00:10,519 --> 00:00:12,529 今天视频里我们要讨论 7 00:00:12,529 --> 00:00:13,130 一开始就说 8 00:00:13,130 --> 00:00:14,529 我们先谈谈amd 9 00:00:14,529 --> 00:00:17,449 今天amd有重大新闻 10 00:00:17,449 --> 00:00:18,289 我要非常明确 11 00:00:18,289 --> 00:00:18,609 各位 12 00:00:18,609 --> 00:00:22,679 这将是多月的 hype 周期开端 13 00:00:22,679 --> 00:00:24,320 这将在amd中发生 14 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:25,120 将会非常激烈 15 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:26,179 所以我们来谈谈这个 16 00:00:26,179 --> 00:00:28,379 讨论amd股票接下来走势 17 00:00:28,379 --> 00:00:29,359 所有这些好内容 18 00:00:29,359 --> 00:00:31,550 Paypal股票大幅上涨 19 00:00:31,550 --> 00:00:33,649 在交易最后几小时 20 00:00:33,649 --> 00:00:34,829 谈谈那边的情况 21 00:00:34,829 --> 00:00:35,789 这有多现实 22 00:00:35,789 --> 00:00:36,649 这些种种问题 23 00:00:36,649 --> 00:00:40,770 大量兴奋情绪已涌入paypal股票 24 00:00:40,770 --> 00:00:42,189 我想谈谈kava 25 00:00:42,189 --> 00:00:42,689 kava 26 00:00:42,689 --> 00:00:44,130 他们刚发布了财报 27 00:00:44,130 --> 00:00:45,030 在最后一小时 28 00:00:45,030 --> 00:00:47,619 我们讨论kava 29 00:00:47,619 --> 00:00:48,079 好的 30 00:00:48,079 --> 00:00:48,780 amd 31 00:00:48,780 --> 00:00:50,280 ceo lisa su 出现在 32 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:50,539 呃 33 00:00:50,539 --> 00:00:51,079 cnbc 34 00:00:51,079 --> 00:00:51,920 五小时前 35 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,899 谈到了当前情况 36 00:00:53,899 --> 00:00:54,640 关于商业模式 37 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:55,939 我想对此回应 38 00:00:55,939 --> 00:00:58,500 最后一个要回应的其实是昨天的视频 39 00:00:58,500 --> 00:01:02,219 我认为这很适合作为结尾讨论saas 40 00:01:02,219 --> 00:01:02,899 末日论 41 00:01:02,899 --> 00:01:04,099 那边正在发生的事 42 00:01:04,099 --> 00:01:04,900 显然非常极端 43 00:01:04,900 --> 00:01:05,939 我们有很多事要处理 44 00:01:05,939 --> 00:01:06,200 各位 45 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,480 感谢大家今天加入 46 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:08,920 一件事 47 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:10,659 只有一件事我需要 48 00:01:10,659 --> 00:01:11,459 开始前 49 00:01:11,459 --> 00:01:13,219 请轻点点赞按钮 50 00:01:13,219 --> 00:01:14,560 点那个点赞图标 51 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:15,769 这就是我需要的全部了 52 00:01:15,769 --> 00:01:17,329 我感激每一位参与其中的人 53 00:01:17,329 --> 00:01:18,170 我也要感谢大家 54 00:01:18,170 --> 00:01:21,409 所有开启通知订阅的频道成员 55 00:01:21,409 --> 00:01:22,329 以及所有这些好东西 56 00:01:22,329 --> 00:01:24,430 感谢你们的到来 57 00:01:24,430 --> 00:01:25,909 今天请把评论钉在下方 58 00:01:25,909 --> 00:01:26,650 如果你正在考虑申请 59 00:01:26,650 --> 00:01:27,670 加入我的私享股票群组 60 00:01:27,670 --> 00:01:28,469 私享财富群组 61 00:01:28,469 --> 00:01:33,140 最近人们突破六位数和七位数确实放缓了 62 00:01:33,140 --> 00:01:33,939 你知道过去几个月 63 00:01:33,939 --> 00:01:35,260 但我们仍有成功案例 64 00:01:35,260 --> 00:01:36,519 这只是最近几周的数据 65 00:01:36,519 --> 00:01:37,719 我妻子让我注册了这些 66 00:01:37,719 --> 00:01:38,099 呃 67 00:01:38,099 --> 00:01:39,680 十二人突破六位数收入 68 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,120 加上组合投资和两人突破七位数 69 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,239 所以看到有人创下记录真好 70 00:01:45,239 --> 00:01:46,000 还有啊 71 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:46,939 顺便说一下这些奖项 72 00:01:46,939 --> 00:01:49,000 我会免费寄送给 73 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:49,859 你知道的会员们 74 00:01:49,859 --> 00:01:51,900 当他们在私享群达成里程碑时 75 00:01:51,900 --> 00:01:55,439 七位数成就者还会送你定制耐克帽 76 00:01:55,439 --> 00:01:57,569 甚至价值一千美元的耐克帽 77 00:01:57,569 --> 00:01:58,530 好的已经够了 78 00:01:58,530 --> 00:01:58,849 呃 79 00:01:58,849 --> 00:01:59,650 请把评论钉在下方 80 00:01:59,650 --> 00:02:00,290 如果你想的话 81 00:02:00,290 --> 00:02:00,810 就在那里 82 00:02:00,810 --> 00:02:02,500 如果你想加入我们的私享群组 83 00:02:02,500 --> 00:02:03,359 获取我的课程 84 00:02:03,359 --> 00:02:03,840 课程体系 85 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:04,400 Discord聊天室 86 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:05,239 所有这些优质资源 87 00:02:05,239 --> 00:02:06,439 除了独家视频 88 00:02:06,439 --> 00:02:07,519 我昨晚录了一个 89 00:02:07,519 --> 00:02:08,939 长达二十多分钟的精华内容 90 00:02:08,939 --> 00:02:09,430 好的 91 00:02:09,430 --> 00:02:09,990 好的 92 00:02:09,990 --> 00:02:10,870 所以啊 93 00:02:10,870 --> 00:02:11,490 我们来聊聊 94 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:13,169 首先这里 95 00:02:13,169 --> 00:02:13,569 好的 96 00:02:13,569 --> 00:02:14,789 听着 97 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,219 这是好消息 98 00:02:17,219 --> 00:02:18,139 非常棒的消息 99 00:02:18,139 --> 00:02:20,960 股票因芯片与Meta合作飙升 100 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:21,120 现在 101 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,189 这是我在公共账户中的两大最大投资之一 102 00:02:24,189 --> 00:02:28,250 很高兴看到amd宣布了这项长期协议 103 00:02:28,250 --> 00:02:29,289 这就是我期待的那种协议 104 00:02:29,289 --> 00:02:34,719 我想看到周二与meta签订的长期计算能力供应协议 105 00:02:34,719 --> 00:02:35,759 股价大幅上涨 106 00:02:35,759 --> 00:02:38,419 尽管其中包含向meta授予的认股权证 107 00:02:38,419 --> 00:02:40,650 相当于芯片制造商目前的十分之一股份 108 00:02:40,650 --> 00:02:43,569 为了让meta获得amd的十分之一股份 109 00:02:43,569 --> 00:02:44,409 这真是令人着迷 110 00:02:44,409 --> 00:02:47,009 因为这些就是我最大的投资中的两个 111 00:02:47,009 --> 00:02:49,669 而我最大的投资之一正在进行中 112 00:02:49,669 --> 00:02:51,849 比如我的第二大投资就非常引人注目 113 00:02:51,849 --> 00:02:54,389 对我来说整个情况都很值得关注 114 00:02:54,389 --> 00:02:58,430 但为了让meta获得amd的十分之一股份 115 00:02:58,430 --> 00:03:01,189 meta必须履行这些订单 116 00:03:01,189 --> 00:03:04,449 未来几年需订购大量amd芯片 117 00:03:04,449 --> 00:03:07,750 这显然会让amd获益巨大 118 00:03:07,750 --> 00:03:11,990 同时还能对抗nvidia生态系统 119 00:03:11,990 --> 00:03:19,169 此外amd可能向open ai出让公司最多十分之一股权 120 00:03:19,169 --> 00:03:21,629 如果open ai履行所有合同的话 121 00:03:21,629 --> 00:03:23,009 关于open ai存在很多疑问 122 00:03:23,009 --> 00:03:25,219 他们是否有足够的资金完成此事 123 00:03:25,219 --> 00:03:26,180 至于open ai 124 00:03:26,180 --> 00:03:29,060 关于meta的问题其实并非疑问 125 00:03:29,060 --> 00:03:32,620 这更像是确定无疑的事 126 00:03:32,620 --> 00:03:34,759 因为open ai需要大量融资 127 00:03:34,759 --> 00:03:36,460 而meta拥有巨额资金 128 00:03:36,460 --> 00:03:39,939 因此meta很可能履行open ai的协议 129 00:03:39,939 --> 00:03:41,020 这存在疑问 130 00:03:41,020 --> 00:03:41,259 没错 131 00:03:41,259 --> 00:03:45,340 这比open ai的潜在情况更值得重视 132 00:03:45,340 --> 00:03:45,889 好的 133 00:03:45,889 --> 00:03:48,050 根据多年期协议条款 134 00:03:48,050 --> 00:03:51,569 meta将采购六吉瓦的图形处理器 135 00:03:51,569 --> 00:03:54,530 从amd处采购gpu为facebook母公司供电 136 00:03:54,530 --> 00:03:56,469 下一代AI基础设施 137 00:03:56,469 --> 00:03:58,710 amd也同意授予meta 138 00:03:58,710 --> 00:04:02,270 最多1.6亿amd股的绩效挂钩认股权证 139 00:04:02,270 --> 00:04:04,979 或相当于公司十分之一股权 140 00:04:04,979 --> 00:04:10,229 因此meta长期看好amd的表现 141 00:04:10,229 --> 00:04:11,310 这非常聪明 142 00:04:11,310 --> 00:04:12,789 这极其精明 143 00:04:12,789 --> 00:04:13,900 呃 144 00:04:13,900 --> 00:04:15,620 这简直天才 145 00:04:15,620 --> 00:04:18,680 原因在于观察nvidia的动向 146 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:19,120 nvidia 147 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:19,639 归根结底 148 00:04:19,639 --> 00:04:21,519 他们在投资相关企业 149 00:04:21,519 --> 00:04:24,449 这也可能是明智的战略决策 150 00:04:24,449 --> 00:04:30,870 但真正高明的是让大客户直接获益 151 00:04:30,870 --> 00:04:32,250 成为你公司的股东 152 00:04:32,250 --> 00:04:34,750 因为现在meta开放了ai 153 00:04:34,750 --> 00:04:36,329 如果他们要获得实际所有权 154 00:04:36,329 --> 00:04:38,250 获得a和d公司的一部分所有权 155 00:04:38,250 --> 00:04:42,360 你会有很强的财务动机多下单 156 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:43,600 这样公司业绩更好 157 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,500 股价也会上涨而你赚更多钱 158 00:04:46,500 --> 00:04:48,680 然后如果你想抛售这部分股份 159 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:49,519 两年后 160 00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:50,220 四年之后 161 00:04:50,220 --> 00:04:50,980 六年之后 162 00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:51,740 十年之后 163 00:04:51,740 --> 00:04:54,850 大概能换回一大笔钱 164 00:04:54,850 --> 00:04:55,589 想想看 165 00:04:55,589 --> 00:04:58,269 如果amd市值达到一万亿 166 00:04:58,269 --> 00:05:02,370 假设meta持有公司10% 167 00:05:02,370 --> 00:05:05,470 那就是一百亿的收益 168 00:05:06,189 --> 00:05:08,329 如果meta投入一百亿 169 00:05:08,329 --> 00:05:09,629 之后就能收回这笔投资 170 00:05:09,629 --> 00:05:11,370 因为股价表现惊人 171 00:05:11,370 --> 00:05:12,750 这对他们来说简直是天才策略 172 00:05:12,750 --> 00:05:14,930 比如莉萨·苏 173 00:05:14,930 --> 00:05:17,290 她太聪明了 174 00:05:17,290 --> 00:05:18,069 太聪明了 175 00:05:18,069 --> 00:05:18,529 好的 176 00:05:18,529 --> 00:05:20,000 不仅在技术层面 177 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:21,519 更在商业理解上 178 00:05:21,519 --> 00:05:22,800 以及如何对抗英伟达 179 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,699 他们在这一领域的垄断地位 180 00:05:24,699 --> 00:05:25,970 我意思是 181 00:05:25,970 --> 00:05:26,410 你知道的 182 00:05:26,410 --> 00:05:27,490 而埃隆·马斯克对此不满 183 00:05:27,490 --> 00:05:28,850 从詹森谈论时就能看出来 184 00:05:28,850 --> 00:05:31,600 当meta与amd的ai合作刚公布时 185 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:32,120 他说道 186 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:32,360 你知道的 187 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:33,800 在贬低这件事 188 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:34,079 比如 189 00:05:34,079 --> 00:05:35,620 为什么要出让公司10%股权 190 00:05:35,620 --> 00:05:37,000 如果你们的产品做对了 191 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:37,720 这类问题 192 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:38,399 而我却觉得 193 00:05:38,399 --> 00:05:39,579 这简直是天才之举 194 00:05:39,579 --> 00:05:40,779 如果我是詹森 195 00:05:40,779 --> 00:05:43,060 肯定会很生气 196 00:05:43,060 --> 00:05:43,790 好的 197 00:05:43,790 --> 00:05:46,069 听meta说 198 00:05:46,069 --> 00:05:48,310 将用这些芯片运行ai模型 199 00:05:48,310 --> 00:05:49,930 这一过程称为推理 200 00:05:49,930 --> 00:05:50,269 现在 201 00:05:50,269 --> 00:05:51,870 这就是最大的事情 202 00:05:51,870 --> 00:05:54,449 培训显然已成为一个市场 203 00:05:54,449 --> 00:05:56,730 英伟达从一开始就完全主导了市场 204 00:05:56,730 --> 00:05:57,649 这些模型的训练过程 205 00:05:57,649 --> 00:05:59,089 但更大的机会在于 206 00:05:59,089 --> 00:05:59,689 长期来看 207 00:05:59,689 --> 00:06:02,319 根据我多年来从Jensen那里听到的情况 208 00:06:02,319 --> 00:06:03,658 还有Lisa Sue 209 00:06:03,658 --> 00:06:05,598 推理实际上将是更大的机会 210 00:06:05,598 --> 00:06:10,538 游戏和推理领域AMD将能够与英伟达正面竞争 211 00:06:10,538 --> 00:06:12,949 在未来五到十年内 212 00:06:12,949 --> 00:06:16,569 公司预计今年将在AI数据中心投入高达135 213 00:06:16,569 --> 00:06:19,480 超过十亿美元的资金 214 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:20,540 我们引用 215 00:06:20,540 --> 00:06:26,040 我们需要大规模可扩展的计算能力来满足AI日益增长的需求 216 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,089 工作负载在公司新闻稿中表示 217 00:06:28,089 --> 00:06:29,589 我们与AMD的合作 218 00:06:29,589 --> 00:06:33,610 建立在现有合作基础上将帮助我们满足这些需求 219 00:06:33,610 --> 00:06:38,718 这项交易与AMD合作伙伴OpenAI的协议几乎相同 220 00:06:38,718 --> 00:06:40,158 我们在十月达成 221 00:06:40,158 --> 00:06:44,560 两项协议均涉及价值六千兆瓦的AI服务器 222 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:50,180 两项协议部署将于今年下半年启动 223 00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:51,428 450系列 224 00:06:56,269 --> 00:07:03,100 这些股票是否免费取决于部署里程碑和AMD股价 225 00:07:03,100 --> 00:07:07,110 最后一笔股票将在股价达到 226 00:07:07,110 --> 00:07:14,129 股价达到600美元时转换 227 00:07:14,129 --> 00:07:18,410 AMD股价昨日不足200美元 228 00:07:18,410 --> 00:07:23,170 AMD文件中关于股票归属条款已被删除 229 00:07:23,170 --> 00:07:24,649 向SEC提交 230 00:07:24,649 --> 00:07:29,329 该协议将认股权证结构化为税务销售折扣 231 00:07:29,329 --> 00:07:33,060 并要求Meta限制股票交易方式 232 00:07:33,060 --> 00:07:34,959 或如何交易 233 00:07:34,959 --> 00:07:36,519 或其购买的股票 234 00:07:36,519 --> 00:07:41,360 首席财务官周二表示最新合作将推动AMD多 235 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,350 年收入增长 236 00:07:43,350 --> 00:07:45,149 但这意义更大 237 00:07:45,149 --> 00:07:47,949 这项合作标志着AMD的重要进展 238 00:07:47,949 --> 00:07:51,158 旨在挑战英伟达在GPU领域的主导地位 239 00:07:51,158 --> 00:07:53,550 英伟达一直在说这些 240 00:07:53,550 --> 00:07:59,069 分析师认为该协议是对AMD AI硬件的信心投票 241 00:07:59,069 --> 00:08:01,129 然而必须出让10%股权 242 00:08:01,129 --> 00:08:04,550 表明可能难以产生有机需求 243 00:08:04,550 --> 00:08:06,350 我不这么认为 244 00:08:06,350 --> 00:08:07,730 我觉得他们搞错了 245 00:08:07,730 --> 00:08:10,389 如果单纯比较技术 246 00:08:10,389 --> 00:08:11,809 再看AMD高端 247 00:08:11,809 --> 00:08:13,468 芯片与英伟达AMD 248 00:08:13,468 --> 00:08:18,120 现在已处于与英伟达非常接近的竞争地位 249 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:19,720 这仅从技术层面来看 250 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:20,920 所以你知道 251 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,360 显然他们现在有了这些机架 252 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:24,019 就像他们拥有整个 253 00:08:24,019 --> 00:08:28,160 整个计划是为了在今年后半段直接与英伟达竞争 254 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,620 然后在二七二八二九结束 255 00:08:30,620 --> 00:08:32,450 所以我不认为是这样 256 00:08:32,450 --> 00:08:35,250 他还指出英伟达仍是AI芯片领域的绝对领先者 257 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:35,409 是的 258 00:08:35,409 --> 00:08:36,289 我们都知道这就是原因 259 00:08:39,129 --> 00:08:41,639 而英伟达和AMD显然不具备这个 260 00:08:41,639 --> 00:08:44,700 我觉得这是天才之举 261 00:08:44,700 --> 00:08:46,480 我觉得这是天才 262 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:47,960 我爱这个交易 263 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:49,059 我爱 264 00:08:49,059 --> 00:08:53,179 我喜欢我的公司可能成为重要股东 265 00:08:53,179 --> 00:08:57,710 AMD和我说的这件事比开源理想更重要 266 00:08:57,710 --> 00:08:58,929 因为再次说明 267 00:08:58,929 --> 00:09:02,269 你需要理解OpenAI 268 00:09:02,269 --> 00:09:03,669 我们并不确定 269 00:09:03,669 --> 00:09:04,250 比如 270 00:09:04,250 --> 00:09:06,470 他们能否真正筹集到资金 271 00:09:06,470 --> 00:09:08,090 他们本应筹集 272 00:09:08,090 --> 00:09:10,429 他们需要与Oracle和AMD巨额投入 273 00:09:10,429 --> 00:09:11,230 与英伟达 274 00:09:11,230 --> 00:09:12,339 我们还不清楚 275 00:09:12,339 --> 00:09:14,839 Meta存在不确定性 276 00:09:14,839 --> 00:09:16,139 这更像是定局 277 00:09:16,139 --> 00:09:19,298 扎克伯格承诺未来几年投入巨额资金 278 00:09:19,298 --> 00:09:21,019 这很清楚对吧 279 00:09:21,019 --> 00:09:23,539 他们就是这样获得的 280 00:09:23,539 --> 00:09:25,379 他们无需担心 281 00:09:25,379 --> 00:09:25,779 糟了 282 00:09:25,779 --> 00:09:27,379 我们需要筹集两百亿资金 283 00:09:27,379 --> 00:09:27,659 不 284 00:09:27,659 --> 00:09:29,019 因为他们赚取巨额利润 285 00:09:29,019 --> 00:09:30,818 收入爆炸式增长 286 00:09:30,818 --> 00:09:32,698 你知道的 287 00:09:32,698 --> 00:09:35,558 运营现金流持续涌入 288 00:09:35,558 --> 00:09:43,340 所以如果Meta计划未来几年投入六十亿 289 00:09:43,340 --> 00:09:45,779 他们将在未来几年投入六十亿 290 00:09:45,779 --> 00:09:47,659 最终获得AMD10%股权 291 00:09:47,659 --> 00:09:49,220 这就是我的看法 292 00:09:52,299 --> 00:09:52,500 顺便说一句 293 00:09:52,500 --> 00:09:54,100 如果你想在X上关注我 294 00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:55,980 我始终在描述区域保持链接 295 00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:56,850 所有视频 296 00:09:56,850 --> 00:09:59,769 你也可能想关注千XX页面 297 00:09:59,769 --> 00:10:01,269 如果你对股市很感兴趣 298 00:10:01,269 --> 00:10:05,269 那里会发布更多相关新闻和正在发生的事情 299 00:10:05,269 --> 00:10:07,909 但你知道我今天在X上发布了这个 300 00:10:07,909 --> 00:10:10,289 你的AMD目标价被上调到226美元了吗 301 00:10:10,289 --> 00:10:12,129 我说了一个大数字 302 00:10:12,129 --> 00:10:14,109 我说了330或375 303 00:10:14,109 --> 00:10:15,889 但女士们先生们请注意 304 00:10:15,889 --> 00:10:20,700 我们即将进入AMD的多月炒作周期 305 00:10:20,700 --> 00:10:22,259 这只股票走势会非常极端 306 00:10:22,259 --> 00:10:24,539 在我看来这个交易宣布了 307 00:10:24,539 --> 00:10:26,730 可能会有更多交易即将来临并记住 308 00:10:26,730 --> 00:10:28,049 英伟达财报即将公布 309 00:10:28,049 --> 00:10:31,769 英伟达财报很可能会有强劲指引 310 00:10:31,769 --> 00:10:32,190 没错 311 00:10:32,190 --> 00:10:33,629 可能超出市场预期 312 00:10:33,629 --> 00:10:38,590 随着45系列产品即将投产 313 00:10:38,590 --> 00:10:41,350 下半年这里会越来越令人兴奋 314 00:10:41,350 --> 00:10:43,169 我认为AMD下个季度 315 00:10:43,169 --> 00:10:44,509 不仅会超越业绩 316 00:10:44,509 --> 00:10:48,059 指引也会非常强劲 317 00:10:48,059 --> 00:10:51,220 很可能大幅领先华尔街预期 318 00:10:51,220 --> 00:10:56,700 因此我认为我们刚刚进入一个多月的炒作周期初期 319 00:10:56,700 --> 00:10:59,879 这将强力推动AMD股价 320 00:10:59,879 --> 00:11:03,570 所以当AMD经历这种周期时 321 00:11:03,570 --> 00:11:05,110 在三到六个月间 322 00:11:05,110 --> 00:11:06,519 走势可能呈抛物线形态 323 00:11:06,519 --> 00:11:07,960 你可能会认为 324 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:08,159 哦 325 00:11:08,159 --> 00:11:09,840 只是稳步上涨 326 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:10,519 不 327 00:11:10,519 --> 00:11:12,200 并非如此 328 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,320 AMD可能在六十个交易日内涨至200-300 329 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:15,879 你知道的 330 00:11:15,879 --> 00:11:17,960 不到六十个交易日 331 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:23,799 AMD可能在六十个交易日内从200涨至300 332 00:11:23,799 --> 00:11:26,159 这可能非常明确 333 00:11:26,159 --> 00:11:27,039 好的 334 00:11:27,039 --> 00:11:29,440 如果你认为需要很长时间 335 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:30,799 不AMD 336 00:11:30,799 --> 00:11:31,860 走势非常剧烈 337 00:11:31,860 --> 00:11:34,000 当人们不看好时 338 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,610 股价可能暴跌30-40-50% 339 00:11:36,610 --> 00:11:37,169 迅速 340 00:11:37,169 --> 00:11:38,570 不是几年 341 00:11:38,570 --> 00:11:39,529 几个月内 342 00:11:39,529 --> 00:11:41,269 可能暴跌30-40-50% 343 00:11:41,269 --> 00:11:43,919 但当它火热时 344 00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:44,480 兄弟 345 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:45,279 你会看到这个走势 346 00:11:45,279 --> 00:11:48,668 可能实现50-100%涨幅 347 00:11:48,668 --> 00:11:49,208 就像这样 348 00:11:49,208 --> 00:11:51,889 如果AMD在未来四个月内涨到四百美元 349 00:11:51,889 --> 00:11:52,969 我会不会感到震惊 350 00:11:52,969 --> 00:11:54,419 完全不会 351 00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:58,080 如果AMD股票四个月后涨到四百美元 352 00:11:58,080 --> 00:11:59,289 四个月后 353 00:11:59,289 --> 00:12:00,029 我会不会 354 00:12:00,029 --> 00:12:00,610 天啊 355 00:12:00,610 --> 00:12:02,389 我简直不敢相信发生了这事 356 00:12:02,389 --> 00:12:03,789 别这样 357 00:12:03,789 --> 00:12:04,950 听起来挺合理的 358 00:12:04,950 --> 00:12:06,389 这像AMD的风格 359 00:12:06,389 --> 00:12:06,929 你知道的 360 00:12:06,929 --> 00:12:11,149 大家都在兴奋期待下一代芯片的发布 361 00:12:11,730 --> 00:12:12,649 这就是AMD 362 00:12:12,649 --> 00:12:12,909 好的 363 00:12:12,909 --> 00:12:14,090 记住这一点 364 00:12:14,090 --> 00:12:15,450 我们稍后会再讨论AMD 365 00:12:15,450 --> 00:12:19,450 当我们在回应Lisa Sue的采访以及PayPal近期强劲势头时 366 00:12:19,450 --> 00:12:20,750 这只股票昨天暴涨 367 00:12:20,750 --> 00:12:22,809 今天再次大幅上涨 368 00:12:22,809 --> 00:12:23,318 没错 369 00:12:23,318 --> 00:12:30,440 金融科技公司Stripe被曝正在早期讨论收购PayPal 370 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:31,100 好的 371 00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:33,039 PayPal周二股价上涨7% 372 00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:35,639 继有报道称金融科技公司Stripe正在考虑 373 00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:36,159 嗯 374 00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:38,230 正在考虑收购支付平台 375 00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:39,690 彭博社报道了这一消息 376 00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:41,328 这意味着消息属实 377 00:12:41,328 --> 00:12:43,568 不是随便哪个X平台的网友说的 378 00:12:43,568 --> 00:12:45,528 据知情人士透露 379 00:12:45,528 --> 00:12:48,269 讨论仍处于早期阶段 380 00:12:48,269 --> 00:12:49,149 好的 381 00:12:49,149 --> 00:12:50,210 早期阶段 382 00:12:50,210 --> 00:12:51,590 不要对此太过兴奋 383 00:12:51,590 --> 00:12:52,690 这还没定下来 384 00:12:52,690 --> 00:12:54,490 确实处于早期阶段 385 00:12:54,490 --> 00:13:00,110 报道称Stripe正在考虑收购PayPal全部或部分业务 386 00:13:00,110 --> 00:13:02,570 那么PayPal的情况是 387 00:13:02,570 --> 00:13:04,590 或者Stripe的意图可能是 388 00:13:04,590 --> 00:13:05,529 好的 389 00:13:05,529 --> 00:13:09,090 Stripe可能只收购Braintree业务 390 00:13:09,090 --> 00:13:14,720 这被视为Stripe的直接竞争对手，具有潜力 391 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,279 或者他们可能直接收购整个公司 392 00:13:18,279 --> 00:13:20,220 然后获得消费者业务 393 00:13:20,220 --> 00:13:22,009 也就是PayPal和Venmo 394 00:13:22,009 --> 00:13:25,990 通过整合这些业务并发展 395 00:13:25,990 --> 00:13:27,879 如果做得好 396 00:13:27,879 --> 00:13:32,970 他们能让PayPal和Venmo更主导市场 397 00:13:32,970 --> 00:13:34,389 远超目前的地位 398 00:13:34,389 --> 00:13:35,649 如果他们只是收购了整个公司 399 00:13:35,649 --> 00:13:37,929 但必须做好整合工作 400 00:13:38,049 --> 00:13:41,210 这里需要采用元策略方法 401 00:13:41,210 --> 00:13:43,049 就像那种感觉 402 00:13:44,078 --> 00:13:47,979 人们更倾向于使用PayPal来使用Venmo 403 00:13:47,979 --> 00:13:48,599 没错 404 00:13:48,599 --> 00:13:49,490 嗯 405 00:13:49,490 --> 00:13:51,889 就像Meta对其产品的做法一样 406 00:13:51,889 --> 00:13:54,769 他们会收购类似Instagram这样的产品 407 00:13:54,769 --> 00:13:59,159 然后在使用Facebook时激励你使用Instagram 408 00:13:59,159 --> 00:14:02,100 当年就是这样，如今使用Instagram 409 00:14:02,100 --> 00:14:05,179 他们大力鼓励使用新推出的Threads 410 00:14:05,179 --> 00:14:06,879 所以 411 00:14:08,639 --> 00:14:10,820 我能想象他们会收购整个公司 412 00:14:10,820 --> 00:14:12,879 我也可能看到他们只收购BrainTree 413 00:14:12,879 --> 00:14:13,500 相关方面 414 00:14:13,500 --> 00:14:17,318 消息在公司近期股价下跌后一天传出 415 00:14:17,318 --> 00:14:19,479 随公司近期股价暴跌 416 00:14:19,479 --> 00:14:21,889 PayPal和Stripe拒绝就报道评论 417 00:14:21,889 --> 00:14:22,330 PayPal 418 00:14:22,330 --> 00:14:23,789 正面临增长放缓困境 419 00:14:23,789 --> 00:14:28,210 在竞争激烈的金融支付行业股价暴跌超19% 420 00:14:28,210 --> 00:14:30,419 年初以来股价已下跌逾19% 421 00:14:30,419 --> 00:14:31,539 股价暴跌 422 00:14:31,539 --> 00:14:31,820 blah 423 00:14:31,820 --> 00:14:32,019 blah 424 00:14:32,019 --> 00:14:32,299 blah 425 00:14:32,299 --> 00:14:34,080 我们都清楚，无需赘述 426 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:34,659 你知道的 427 00:14:34,659 --> 00:14:35,720 再说一遍 428 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,720 与此同时金融科技初创公司Stripe创1590亿美元估值 429 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,259 周二实现1000亿美元估值 430 00:14:42,259 --> 00:14:45,600 通过员工和股东二次股票出售 431 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,759 较一年前910亿美元增长 432 00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:50,279 Stripe在业务更新中表示 433 00:14:50,279 --> 00:14:54,639 收入体系计划实现年营收10亿美元 434 00:14:54,639 --> 00:14:56,870 我以为Stripe的数字会更高 435 00:14:56,870 --> 00:15:00,049 去年位列CNBC颠覆者50强第十名 436 00:15:00,049 --> 00:15:03,818 已成长为最具价值的私有公司之一 437 00:15:03,818 --> 00:15:09,320 并于一月收购了计费初创公司Metronome 438 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:13,000 Stripe联合创始人兼CEO约翰·科林 439 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,419 周二对CNBC安德鲁·罗斯·索金表示 440 00:15:16,419 --> 00:15:19,879 公司尚未计划上市 441 00:15:19,879 --> 00:15:22,379 以免影响现有产品和业务 442 00:15:22,379 --> 00:15:23,139 我说真的 443 00:15:23,139 --> 00:15:24,559 他们能得到的巨大优势 444 00:15:24,559 --> 00:15:27,009 如果与PayPal合并的话猜猜看 445 00:15:27,009 --> 00:15:28,169 这简直天才 446 00:15:28,169 --> 00:15:31,519 他们将获得庞大且盈利的业务 447 00:15:31,519 --> 00:15:36,110 因此Stripe的盈利能力会立即惊艳 448 00:15:36,470 --> 00:15:38,509 即使Stripe在亏损 449 00:15:38,509 --> 00:15:39,149 你知道的 450 00:15:39,149 --> 00:15:40,590 我不清楚背后的全部财务状况 451 00:15:40,590 --> 00:15:41,789 因为现在是私有公司 452 00:15:41,789 --> 00:15:45,440 但假设现在Stripe作为公司正在亏损 453 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:46,059 好的 454 00:15:46,059 --> 00:15:46,940 呃 455 00:15:46,940 --> 00:15:48,519 一旦你收购PayPal 456 00:15:48,519 --> 00:15:50,499 如果完全没有可能 457 00:15:50,499 --> 00:15:52,019 Stripe的亏损足以像 458 00:15:52,019 --> 00:15:52,698 抵消 459 00:15:52,698 --> 00:15:55,318 PayPal持续流入的资金 460 00:15:55,318 --> 00:15:58,559 所以你现在购买PayPal 461 00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:00,179 假设每年75美元 462 00:16:00,179 --> 00:16:01,159 每股80美元 463 00:16:01,159 --> 00:16:02,600 每股90美元左右 464 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,340 对的，立刻获得现金流 465 00:16:05,340 --> 00:16:07,120 成为盈利机器 466 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:08,580 极度盈利 467 00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:10,240 然后进行整合 468 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:11,259 你拥有Braintree业务 469 00:16:11,259 --> 00:16:13,100 然后整合PayPal和Venmo 470 00:16:13,100 --> 00:16:17,200 构建整体支付生态系统 471 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:18,600 这会让你变得 472 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:19,279 非常强大 473 00:16:19,279 --> 00:16:21,370 所以如果我是Stripe 474 00:16:21,370 --> 00:16:22,870 肯定会推进这笔交易 475 00:16:22,870 --> 00:16:24,870 如果我是PayPal董事会 476 00:16:24,870 --> 00:16:26,210 也会尝试促成这笔交易 477 00:16:26,210 --> 00:16:28,009 我认为这很有道理 478 00:16:28,009 --> 00:16:29,490 嗯 479 00:16:30,529 --> 00:16:31,090 现阶段 480 00:16:33,129 --> 00:16:34,090 因为股价已跌至四十多 481 00:16:34,090 --> 00:16:36,679 如果能以每股80美元出售 482 00:16:36,679 --> 00:16:38,659 每股75美元 483 00:16:38,659 --> 00:16:39,940 每股90美元 484 00:16:39,940 --> 00:16:41,080 拿钱就跑 485 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:42,480 拿钱就走 486 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,559 拿钱就走 487 00:16:44,559 --> 00:16:47,220 对各方都有利 488 00:16:47,220 --> 00:16:48,879 对各方都有利 489 00:16:48,879 --> 00:16:49,419 没错 490 00:16:49,419 --> 00:16:51,460 我们将拭目以待 491 00:16:52,589 --> 00:16:56,990 如果我有权以80美元出售PayPal 492 00:16:56,990 --> 00:16:58,110 猜猜看 493 00:16:58,110 --> 00:16:58,950 我会投票 494 00:16:58,950 --> 00:16:59,809 赞成 495 00:16:59,809 --> 00:17:01,250 我准备说 496 00:17:01,250 --> 00:17:04,650 让我在这笔投资中获利然后转移资金 497 00:17:04,650 --> 00:17:07,130 你知道PayPal是个价值陷阱 498 00:17:07,130 --> 00:17:09,059 让我们直接说它是什么 499 00:17:09,059 --> 00:17:10,619 收入在增长 500 00:17:10,619 --> 00:17:11,779 但增长非常缓慢 501 00:17:11,779 --> 00:17:13,380 利润在增长 502 00:17:13,380 --> 00:17:14,519 这相当不错 503 00:17:14,519 --> 00:17:15,859 他们回购了大量股份 504 00:17:15,859 --> 00:17:20,700 但你知道他们仍在努力扩大业务 505 00:17:20,700 --> 00:17:23,599 看起来这种情况可能持续下去 506 00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:26,400 这可能形成价值陷阱 507 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,819 因此像stripe这样的公司可能变得极具吸引力 508 00:17:30,819 --> 00:17:32,920 我们拭目以待 509 00:17:33,529 --> 00:17:34,529 请记住 510 00:17:34,529 --> 00:17:35,950 现在stripe表现出兴趣 511 00:17:35,950 --> 00:17:40,059 其他公司也可能跟进 512 00:17:40,059 --> 00:17:41,420 比如visa会怎么做 513 00:17:41,420 --> 00:17:42,240 可能会考虑 514 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:42,740 你知道的 515 00:17:42,740 --> 00:17:44,140 收购paypal的可能性 516 00:17:44,140 --> 00:17:45,900 不能对此过于兴奋 517 00:17:45,900 --> 00:17:51,048 但像美国运通这样的公司也可能行动 518 00:17:51,048 --> 00:17:52,028 没有潜在可能 519 00:17:52,028 --> 00:17:53,989 比如万事达卡有潜力 520 00:17:53,989 --> 00:17:54,348 确实存在 521 00:17:54,348 --> 00:17:58,380 像paypal这样的公司有很多潜在买家 522 00:17:58,380 --> 00:17:59,319 甚至可以说 523 00:17:59,319 --> 00:18:02,539 大型银行也可能感兴趣 524 00:18:03,220 --> 00:18:04,180 甚至可以说 525 00:18:04,180 --> 00:18:07,259 像robinhood这样的公司会出手吗 526 00:18:07,599 --> 00:18:08,200 我不确定 527 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:09,690 或者像coinbase这样的公司 528 00:18:09,690 --> 00:18:10,410 我不确定 529 00:18:10,410 --> 00:18:12,990 需要大量债务才能完成交易 530 00:18:12,990 --> 00:18:13,890 但天啊 531 00:18:13,890 --> 00:18:14,690 立即 532 00:18:14,690 --> 00:18:16,130 你的利润 533 00:18:16,130 --> 00:18:18,700 用户基数激增 534 00:18:18,700 --> 00:18:23,579 如何整合这些产品 535 00:18:25,519 --> 00:18:26,440 我认为啊 536 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:31,059 我认为不止stripe一家公司应关注paypal 537 00:18:31,059 --> 00:18:33,349 但我觉得 538 00:18:33,349 --> 00:18:33,930 你知道的 539 00:18:33,930 --> 00:18:35,049 stripe可能是主要 540 00:18:35,049 --> 00:18:36,690 目前主要关注者 541 00:18:36,690 --> 00:18:37,130 好的 542 00:18:37,130 --> 00:18:39,150 现在我们将观察后续发展 543 00:18:39,150 --> 00:18:40,009 Kava Kava 544 00:18:40,009 --> 00:18:43,309 在回到amd和讨论saas末日之前 545 00:18:43,309 --> 00:18:45,160 这里公布的财报 546 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,089 我对损益表评分为D减 547 00:18:48,089 --> 00:18:49,190 收入表现优异 548 00:18:49,190 --> 00:18:50,710 两百七十四万来自第二部分 549 00:18:50,710 --> 00:18:52,670 嗯，去年同一季度是两二七 550 00:18:52,670 --> 00:18:54,329 问题出在食品包装上 551 00:18:54,329 --> 00:18:56,119 饮料增长了两三个百分点 552 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:57,279 人力成本上涨两一 553 00:18:57,279 --> 00:18:57,480 所以 554 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:02,059 你不希望看到任何支出以与收入相同的增速增长 555 00:19:02,059 --> 00:19:03,759 尤其是超过收入增速 556 00:19:03,759 --> 00:19:04,720 这不是好消息 557 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:05,240 好的 558 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:06,819 入住率提升了两二 559 00:19:06,819 --> 00:19:08,720 其他运营成本上涨两七 560 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,240 总餐厅运营成本增长两三个百分点 561 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,980 它们的增长速度快于收入 562 00:19:12,980 --> 00:19:17,960 你不希望看到一般及行政费用占公司约14% 563 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,039 这其实不错 564 00:19:19,039 --> 00:19:21,440 这增速远慢于收入 565 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,440 折旧和摊销增长两三 566 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,920 预开业成本激增71% 567 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:27,720 他们现在开了很多餐厅 568 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,279 对，总运营成本上涨两二 569 00:19:30,279 --> 00:19:32,849 营业利润不佳 570 00:19:32,849 --> 00:19:34,970 最终下降29% 571 00:19:34,970 --> 00:19:39,789 同比税前利润下降21% 572 00:19:39,789 --> 00:19:41,849 净利润下降94% 573 00:19:41,849 --> 00:19:43,509 看起来没那么严重 574 00:19:43,509 --> 00:19:44,769 因为有一次性因素 575 00:19:44,769 --> 00:19:48,099 本季度去年有税收优惠收益 576 00:19:48,099 --> 00:19:49,240 金额达7亿美元 577 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,930 这使净利润显得大幅恶化 578 00:19:52,930 --> 00:19:54,569 仅为面值的94% 579 00:19:54,569 --> 00:19:55,309 深入分析 580 00:19:55,309 --> 00:19:55,970 其实还好 581 00:19:55,970 --> 00:19:58,650 亏损94%其实没那么糟 582 00:19:58,650 --> 00:20:01,309 所以我给Kava打了D-级 583 00:20:01,309 --> 00:20:02,529 仍关注该股票 584 00:20:02,529 --> 00:20:03,569 可能不是最佳选择 585 00:20:03,569 --> 00:20:04,690 我最终参与其中 586 00:20:04,690 --> 00:20:05,130 顺便说 587 00:20:05,130 --> 00:20:05,529 家得宝 588 00:20:05,529 --> 00:20:06,839 我只是想展示给你们看 589 00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:07,640 这就是家得宝 590 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:08,960 他们今早公布了财报 591 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:10,480 我评估了他们的损益表 592 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:11,599 在私密群组中分享 593 00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:12,599 在此Discord聊天 594 00:20:12,599 --> 00:20:13,119 你知道的 595 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:14,650 这说明 596 00:20:14,650 --> 00:20:15,170 你知道的 597 00:20:15,170 --> 00:20:16,329 当收入下降时 598 00:20:16,329 --> 00:20:17,130 这很艰难啊 599 00:20:17,130 --> 00:20:17,950 这简直太残酷了 600 00:20:17,950 --> 00:20:21,140 而它对盈利能力的影响要大得多 601 00:20:21,140 --> 00:20:23,460 因此家得宝净销售额下降了3.8% 602 00:20:23,460 --> 00:20:26,700 但销售成本仅下降了3.5% 603 00:20:26,700 --> 00:20:29,380 所以收入下降速度超过成本下降 604 00:20:29,380 --> 00:20:32,039 收入可是更大的项目啊 605 00:20:32,039 --> 00:20:34,200 这肯定不利于毛利润 606 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,599 毛利润现在下降了4.4% 607 00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:40,569 更严重的是销售管理费用在上升 608 00:20:40,569 --> 00:20:45,099 即使毛利润下降，销售费用和折旧也在增加 609 00:20:45,099 --> 00:20:46,200 记忆成本上升 610 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,079 公司总运营支出增加 611 00:20:48,079 --> 00:20:50,049 这意味着运营收入将大幅下滑 612 00:20:50,049 --> 00:20:55,029 尽管净销售额仅下降3.8% 613 00:20:55,029 --> 00:20:57,990 运营收入下降14.4% 614 00:20:57,990 --> 00:20:58,529 各位 615 00:20:58,529 --> 00:21:00,170 这就是损益表的作用 616 00:21:00,170 --> 00:21:00,670 资产负债表 617 00:21:00,670 --> 00:21:02,859 这些财务报表都非常重要 618 00:21:02,859 --> 00:21:04,539 我会买卡夫股票吗 619 00:21:06,420 --> 00:21:07,859 我想在某个时候买入 620 00:21:07,859 --> 00:21:09,680 但可能只是暂时 621 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,140 我不会长期持有 622 00:21:11,140 --> 00:21:11,880 这样也挺好 623 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:12,599 我爱我的蛋糕 624 00:21:12,599 --> 00:21:14,660 我认为蛋糕的投资回报更好 625 00:21:14,660 --> 00:21:16,388 风险收益比更高 626 00:21:16,388 --> 00:21:18,109 相比卡夫在未来 627 00:21:18,109 --> 00:21:19,950 我可以说五年内 628 00:21:19,950 --> 00:21:21,309 如果不是十年 629 00:21:21,309 --> 00:21:25,049 卡夫没有强大的商业模式 630 00:21:25,210 --> 00:21:28,690 芝士蛋糕工厂概念盈利能力极强 631 00:21:28,690 --> 00:21:32,170 但芝士蛋糕有多个增长概念 632 00:21:32,170 --> 00:21:33,289 面粉孩子品牌 633 00:21:33,289 --> 00:21:34,910 另一家北塔公司 634 00:21:34,910 --> 00:21:40,079 如果我们能在2027-2029年推出这些面粉孩子品牌 635 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:41,059 请注意 636 00:21:41,059 --> 00:21:42,299 蛋糕价格将超百元 637 00:21:42,299 --> 00:21:46,730 甚至可能达到150美元每位嘉宾 638 00:21:46,730 --> 00:21:47,369 丽莎先说 639 00:21:47,369 --> 00:21:48,789 我只想向你表示祝贺 640 00:21:48,789 --> 00:21:49,809 这是一笔绝佳交易 641 00:21:49,809 --> 00:21:53,250 我知道这些成就离不开你的努力 642 00:21:53,250 --> 00:21:56,509 以及你展现出的领导力和性别平等 643 00:21:56,509 --> 00:21:57,210 嗯 644 00:21:57,210 --> 00:21:59,029 首先吉姆很高兴来到这里 645 00:21:59,029 --> 00:21:59,750 谢谢 646 00:21:59,750 --> 00:22:01,650 这是AMD的重要日子 647 00:22:01,650 --> 00:22:04,369 我们非常期待这次合作 648 00:22:04,369 --> 00:22:06,829 我们与meta的合作扩展 649 00:22:06,829 --> 00:22:08,089 这确实如此 650 00:22:08,089 --> 00:22:14,099 你知道这是行业在人工智能基础设施领域大规模投资的又一例证 651 00:22:14,099 --> 00:22:17,799 这关乎拥有正确的技术与合作伙伴 652 00:22:17,799 --> 00:22:18,779 你知道吗 653 00:22:18,779 --> 00:22:19,559 共同构建这个 654 00:22:19,559 --> 00:22:21,329 你知道未来的人工智能 655 00:22:21,329 --> 00:22:23,630 我知道你和马克·扎克伯格经常交谈 656 00:22:23,630 --> 00:22:26,589 你认为你们的计划是什么 657 00:22:26,589 --> 00:22:29,630 可能是我们常说的超级智能 658 00:22:29,630 --> 00:22:31,490 这对消费者意味着什么 659 00:22:31,490 --> 00:22:33,109 这对meta意味着什么 660 00:22:33,109 --> 00:22:33,549 这意味着什么 661 00:22:33,549 --> 00:22:34,980 感觉良好 662 00:22:34,980 --> 00:22:36,720 我认为这绝对是首要的 663 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,599 马克是个优秀的合作伙伴 664 00:22:39,599 --> 00:22:44,299 他在人工智能领域有着雄心勃勃的目标 665 00:22:44,299 --> 00:22:45,740 这关乎超级智能 666 00:22:45,740 --> 00:22:47,700 这关乎于 667 00:22:47,700 --> 00:22:51,630 将人工智能的所有能力普及到全球各领域 668 00:22:51,630 --> 00:22:53,069 而我们想要实现 669 00:22:53,069 --> 00:22:55,170 人工智能无处不在，人人可用 670 00:22:55,170 --> 00:22:56,220 这就是我们的座右铭 671 00:22:56,220 --> 00:22:57,619 我认为我们非常清楚 672 00:22:57,619 --> 00:22:59,059 与meta共享这一理念 673 00:22:59,059 --> 00:23:02,829 我们正在帮助他们构建基础设施 674 00:23:02,829 --> 00:23:07,730 我们将技术优化适配meta的核心 675 00:23:07,730 --> 00:23:08,700 人工智能工作负载 676 00:23:10,420 --> 00:23:11,579 跨越多个世代 677 00:23:11,579 --> 00:23:13,240 因此我们可以 678 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:13,740 你知道的 679 00:23:13,740 --> 00:23:16,750 持续推动飞轮效应，最终产出 680 00:23:16,750 --> 00:23:17,390 你知道的 681 00:23:17,390 --> 00:23:21,039 优质产品和强大功能 682 00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:21,799 好的 683 00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:24,079 英伟达达成了一项协议 684 00:23:24,079 --> 00:23:25,960 他们将在明天公布 685 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,079 可能会获得更多细节 686 00:23:27,079 --> 00:23:28,150 这是一项重大协议 687 00:23:28,750 --> 00:23:29,809 数十亿美元 688 00:23:29,809 --> 00:23:34,690 我们知道不久前康宁宣布了重大合作 689 00:23:34,690 --> 00:23:37,138 这些协议中 690 00:23:37,538 --> 00:23:40,838 meta未参与股权 691 00:23:40,838 --> 00:23:45,119 为什么meta要参与股权呢 692 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,279 关于人工智能基础设施的关键点在于 693 00:23:48,279 --> 00:23:52,750 我们正处于行业高速发展的关键时刻 694 00:23:52,750 --> 00:23:56,349 关键是如何加速创新速度 695 00:23:56,349 --> 00:24:00,349 这正是我们与meta战略合作的核心 696 00:24:00,349 --> 00:24:02,170 你知道我们合作得非常顺利 697 00:24:02,170 --> 00:24:03,869 我们的团队非常投入 698 00:24:03,869 --> 00:24:04,369 呃 699 00:24:04,369 --> 00:24:04,670 你知道的 700 00:24:04,670 --> 00:24:06,089 正在规划未来方向 701 00:24:06,089 --> 00:24:08,569 但我们想实现重大突破 702 00:24:08,569 --> 00:24:09,230 呃 703 00:24:09,230 --> 00:24:10,890 提升用户参与度 704 00:24:10,890 --> 00:24:14,430 而这正是我们讨论的合作协议之美 705 00:24:14,430 --> 00:24:16,740 这对amd来说是真正的胜利 706 00:24:16,740 --> 00:24:17,799 这对meta也是胜利 707 00:24:17,799 --> 00:24:19,420 更是股东的胜利 708 00:24:19,420 --> 00:24:20,819 从这个角度来看 709 00:24:20,819 --> 00:24:22,680 我们正在大规模部署 710 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,690 六吉瓦的计算能力堪称惊人 711 00:24:25,690 --> 00:24:28,589 我们同意优化硬件 712 00:24:28,589 --> 00:24:30,720 软件和系统协同 713 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,220 并专门针对未来最重要的 714 00:24:34,220 --> 00:24:35,579 AI工作负载进行优化 715 00:24:35,579 --> 00:24:36,880 在我看来 716 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,148 正如你所知 717 00:24:38,148 --> 00:24:40,229 这真正实现了战略整合 718 00:24:40,229 --> 00:24:41,788 当你考虑 719 00:24:41,788 --> 00:24:42,148 你知道的 720 00:24:42,148 --> 00:24:46,099 真正能进行如此规模投资的公司寥寥无几 721 00:24:46,099 --> 00:24:47,319 这就是我们讨论的规模 722 00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:49,240 这是一次绝佳的合作 723 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:54,720 假设你有两个非常相似的产品 724 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,160 这边是英伟达的芯片 725 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:57,640 这边是amd的芯片 726 00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,119 假设它们性能相当 727 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,250 甚至可以说amd稍逊一筹 728 00:25:03,250 --> 00:25:04,029 但差距不大 729 00:25:04,029 --> 00:25:05,029 并非巨大差距 730 00:25:05,029 --> 00:25:06,990 假设只是略微落后 731 00:25:06,990 --> 00:25:09,170 作为大公司需要决定 732 00:25:09,170 --> 00:25:13,369 是否要投入巨额资金给某家公司 733 00:25:13,369 --> 00:25:20,709 而该公司我有股权并可能带来丰厚回报 734 00:25:20,709 --> 00:25:24,589 且该公司价格更具竞争力 735 00:25:24,589 --> 00:25:26,630 还是选择另一家公司 736 00:25:26,630 --> 00:25:27,950 我没有股权 737 00:25:27,950 --> 00:25:30,960 却要支付溢价 738 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:32,880 这就是我们讨论的重点 739 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,839 amd在此展现了战略智慧 740 00:25:35,839 --> 00:25:39,440 没错，显然Lisa Su不会公开这样说 741 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,019 对吧 742 00:25:40,019 --> 00:25:43,720 没错，作为旁观者 743 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,579 需要分析实际情况 744 00:25:45,579 --> 00:25:47,460 以及他们为何达成这些协议 745 00:25:47,460 --> 00:25:49,119 因为他们不会在镜头前直接这么说 746 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,309 当然 747 00:25:50,309 --> 00:25:51,609 但请听我说 748 00:25:51,609 --> 00:25:52,190 我们知道 749 00:25:52,190 --> 00:25:55,108 AMD不仅喜欢压低价格，还擅长视频领域 750 00:25:55,108 --> 00:25:57,848 如果你要增加所有权 751 00:25:57,848 --> 00:25:59,169 这些公司将会拥有所有权 752 00:25:59,169 --> 00:26:02,138 而AMD简直是天才 753 00:26:02,338 --> 00:26:08,490 因为这些公司会强烈激励为AMD花钱 754 00:26:08,849 --> 00:26:11,750 你很可能获得比英伟达更好的回报 755 00:26:11,750 --> 00:26:14,730 而你无需支付高昂溢价 756 00:26:15,849 --> 00:26:18,125 你也不会拥有所有权 757 00:26:18,419 --> 00:26:20,058 所以你只是在花钱 758 00:26:20,058 --> 00:26:21,659 就这样再见 759 00:26:22,839 --> 00:26:23,720 我喜欢这个 760 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:24,000 兄弟 761 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,079 我喜欢Lisa Su站上台前 762 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:27,839 Lisa 763 00:26:27,839 --> 00:26:30,220 我想跟进那个具体问题 764 00:26:30,220 --> 00:26:31,890 那个区域 765 00:26:31,890 --> 00:26:33,730 关于这里的认股权证 766 00:26:33,730 --> 00:26:36,829 是AMD的1.6亿股 767 00:26:36,829 --> 00:26:38,450 结构化以分阶段归属 768 00:26:38,450 --> 00:26:41,059 在与特定里程碑相关联时 769 00:26:41,059 --> 00:26:44,319 当您发布GPU发货数据时 770 00:26:44,319 --> 00:26:45,409 当这些里程碑达成时 771 00:26:45,409 --> 00:26:47,509 你曾与OpenAI有类似协议 772 00:26:47,509 --> 00:26:50,169 当时宣布的也是1.6亿股 773 00:26:50,169 --> 00:26:51,388 部分股东 774 00:26:51,388 --> 00:26:52,868 其中几位我今早刚聊过 775 00:26:52,868 --> 00:26:57,099 他可能持有Warren这里公司20%的股份 776 00:26:57,099 --> 00:26:59,400 为什么要包含这些 777 00:26:59,400 --> 00:26:59,619 我说 778 00:26:59,619 --> 00:27:01,279 你已部分解释过 779 00:27:01,279 --> 00:27:03,000 但怀疑者会说 780 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:03,720 你必须 781 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,579 否则他们不会购买你的芯片 782 00:27:05,579 --> 00:27:07,109 如何回应这个质疑 783 00:27:07,109 --> 00:27:07,970 哦大卫 784 00:27:07,970 --> 00:27:08,309 你知道的 785 00:27:08,309 --> 00:27:08,509 我 786 00:27:08,509 --> 00:27:10,289 我会退后一步说 787 00:27:10,289 --> 00:27:12,240 我们正在评估AI加速器市场 788 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,099 市场规模在 789 00:27:14,099 --> 00:27:14,480 你知道的 790 00:27:16,759 --> 00:27:18,619 这是巨大市场 791 00:27:18,619 --> 00:27:21,069 我们正处于拐点 792 00:27:21,069 --> 00:27:22,309 你知道的 793 00:27:22,309 --> 00:27:23,470 我坚信 794 00:27:23,470 --> 00:27:24,829 没有万能方案 795 00:27:24,829 --> 00:27:27,599 实际上需要多种计算类型 796 00:27:27,599 --> 00:27:29,380 AMD拥有所有组件 797 00:27:29,380 --> 00:27:31,579 所以我们有CPU和GPU 798 00:27:31,579 --> 00:27:33,380 我们拥有系统基础设施 799 00:27:33,380 --> 00:27:35,779 而我们要做的是押注 800 00:27:35,779 --> 00:27:36,200 你知道的 801 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,839 我们认为未来AI创新的赢家 802 00:27:39,839 --> 00:27:42,369 这关乎战略伙伴关系 803 00:27:42,369 --> 00:27:44,460 我想你知道我们的一切行动 804 00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:48,240 当我们审视结构时旨在确保双赢 805 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:49,960 一切都是基于绩效的 806 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,130 AMD正迎来大量收入 807 00:27:53,130 --> 00:27:55,589 每吉瓦的计算能力 808 00:27:55,589 --> 00:27:56,130 你知道的 809 00:27:56,130 --> 00:27:58,409 将为我们带来数十亿收入 810 00:27:58,409 --> 00:28:01,288 再考虑整个生态系统价值 811 00:28:01,288 --> 00:28:02,888 在提升方面 812 00:28:02,888 --> 00:28:05,930 你知道并优化我们的硬件生态 813 00:28:05,930 --> 00:28:07,349 我们的软件生态系统 814 00:28:07,349 --> 00:28:11,079 这真正惠及所有使用AMD的客户 815 00:28:11,079 --> 00:28:12,920 这是一个特殊时刻 816 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,019 这是一个特别之地 817 00:28:14,019 --> 00:28:20,459 这是我们扩大已非凡的合作关系的机会 818 00:28:20,459 --> 00:28:21,338 是的 819 00:28:21,338 --> 00:28:23,039 我是说 820 00:28:24,039 --> 00:28:24,680 确实如此 821 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:25,339 呃 822 00:28:25,339 --> 00:28:26,559 太棒了 823 00:28:26,559 --> 00:28:28,119 我真的很喜欢这个举措 824 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:28,500 天啊 825 00:28:28,500 --> 00:28:30,039 我真的很喜欢这个举措 826 00:28:30,039 --> 00:28:31,460 真的很喜欢这个举措 827 00:28:31,460 --> 00:28:31,819 好的 828 00:28:31,819 --> 00:28:33,920 让我们谈谈末日 829 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,799 并强势开启本周 830 00:28:35,799 --> 00:28:37,420 显然这是昨天的事 831 00:28:37,420 --> 00:28:38,680 这段视频是昨天拍摄的 832 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,039 这将非常有趣 833 00:28:40,039 --> 00:28:40,559 呃 834 00:28:40,559 --> 00:28:42,500 这对SaaS股票非常糟糕 835 00:28:42,500 --> 00:28:44,460 不知F是否是SaaS的底部 836 00:28:44,460 --> 00:28:45,339 拭目以待 837 00:28:45,339 --> 00:28:46,670 嗯 838 00:28:47,109 --> 00:28:48,029 我们拭目以待 839 00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:48,190 这 840 00:28:48,190 --> 00:28:49,630 这有可能 841 00:28:49,630 --> 00:28:50,630 我们必须承认 842 00:28:50,630 --> 00:28:53,190 昨日可能是SaaS股票的底部 843 00:28:53,190 --> 00:28:54,029 它们将从此上涨 844 00:28:54,029 --> 00:28:55,279 但我们将观察 845 00:28:55,279 --> 00:28:55,519 恐惧 846 00:28:55,519 --> 00:28:55,920 普姆尔 847 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:56,500 这个领域 848 00:28:56,500 --> 00:28:58,558 迪亚博萨还有更多内容 849 00:28:58,558 --> 00:29:01,439 今日科技板块分析 850 00:29:01,439 --> 00:29:02,078 你做了什么 851 00:29:02,078 --> 00:29:04,128 你认为这是 852 00:29:04,128 --> 00:29:05,348 我觉得这是墙 853 00:29:05,348 --> 00:29:06,429 街边经纪公司 854 00:29:06,429 --> 00:29:08,469 但几周前就出现了，看吧 855 00:29:08,469 --> 00:29:09,409 我们仍在讨论它 856 00:29:09,409 --> 00:29:11,049 我们可能会讨论很长时间 857 00:29:11,049 --> 00:29:13,049 因为软件领域最知名的企业 858 00:29:13,049 --> 00:29:14,569 他们本周将发布财报 859 00:29:14,569 --> 00:29:16,200 他们的核心问题是 860 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:17,880 他们能否提出 861 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:19,660 任何改变叙事的内容 862 00:29:19,660 --> 00:29:22,480 因为现在即使获胜也不够，服务现在 863 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,700 Palantir已发布报告，显示强劲增长 864 00:29:25,700 --> 00:29:26,710 吸引投资者 865 00:29:26,710 --> 00:29:27,910 他们并不买账 866 00:29:27,910 --> 00:29:30,440 观察他们股价发布后的走势 867 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,480 周末又有知名投资机构发布分析 868 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:38,400 这与Salesforce财报的不同之处在于 869 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,289 Palantir是否属于服务现在 870 00:29:41,289 --> 00:29:43,650 如果回溯六个月前 871 00:29:43,650 --> 00:29:44,109 好的 872 00:29:44,109 --> 00:29:46,109 Palantir当时估值极高 873 00:29:46,109 --> 00:29:46,950 简直荒谬 874 00:29:46,950 --> 00:29:47,769 十二个月滚动市盈率 875 00:29:47,769 --> 00:29:52,808 Palantir的前向市销率同样过高 876 00:29:52,808 --> 00:29:53,328 服务 877 00:29:53,328 --> 00:29:53,828 你知道的 878 00:29:53,828 --> 00:29:56,068 Salesforce即将发布财报 879 00:29:56,068 --> 00:29:57,788 前向市盈率为14倍 880 00:29:58,630 --> 00:30:02,329 所以标准被设定得很低 881 00:30:02,329 --> 00:30:05,109 Salesforce若能大幅上涨 882 00:30:05,109 --> 00:30:06,250 相比之下 883 00:30:06,250 --> 00:30:06,970 你知道的 884 00:30:06,970 --> 00:30:10,769 像服务现在和Palantir这类高估值公司 885 00:30:10,769 --> 00:30:14,539 Palantir和服务现在的估值大幅回落 886 00:30:14,539 --> 00:30:15,660 尤其是服务现在 887 00:30:15,660 --> 00:30:20,538 服务现在前向市盈率降至20倍左右 888 00:30:20,538 --> 00:30:22,739 这对公司来说估值过低 889 00:30:22,739 --> 00:30:23,618 但你知道的 890 00:30:23,618 --> 00:30:25,359 这值得留意 891 00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:27,680 对于这些公司及其财报 892 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,339 与Salesforce当前情况对比 893 00:30:30,339 --> 00:30:31,319 接下来是 894 00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:31,799 这封信 895 00:30:31,799 --> 00:30:34,880 标题为《2028年全球情报危机》 896 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,170 这只会火上浇油 897 00:30:37,170 --> 00:30:37,490 现在 898 00:30:37,490 --> 00:30:40,690 这是一个思想实验，模拟可能发生的情况 899 00:30:40,690 --> 00:30:42,220 如果AI运作如此出色 900 00:30:42,220 --> 00:30:44,460 以至于掏空白领经济 901 00:30:44,460 --> 00:30:45,460 它正在病毒式传播 902 00:30:45,460 --> 00:30:47,380 因为它为软件的销售命名 903 00:30:47,380 --> 00:30:48,880 已经计入价格 904 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,160 本周可能是软件的最大考验 905 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:52,039 然而你却有 906 00:30:52,039 --> 00:30:52,640 女士们先生们 907 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,710 让我简单说一下 908 00:30:53,710 --> 00:30:56,230 AI还有很长的路要走 909 00:30:56,230 --> 00:30:59,009 让我展示今天发生的事情 910 00:30:59,009 --> 00:31:00,309 可笑的 911 00:31:00,309 --> 00:31:01,470 可笑的 912 00:31:01,470 --> 00:31:02,849 我使用了 913 00:31:03,250 --> 00:31:05,430 这非常精通 914 00:31:05,430 --> 00:31:07,349 我用过的最先进grok 915 00:31:07,349 --> 00:31:08,849 我说你知道的 916 00:31:08,849 --> 00:31:10,410 给我设计一个九百平方英尺 917 00:31:10,410 --> 00:31:13,079 带一室的豪华小屋 918 00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:14,480 给我做个平面图 919 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:15,539 然后我说 920 00:31:15,539 --> 00:31:17,319 这是一项非常简单的任务 921 00:31:17,319 --> 00:31:20,380 就像我可以问任何人 922 00:31:20,380 --> 00:31:22,640 现在看这个视频就能完成 923 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,220 我觉得几乎是我占大多数 924 00:31:25,220 --> 00:31:26,180 你们都能做到 925 00:31:26,180 --> 00:31:27,539 给我做个简单平面图 926 00:31:27,539 --> 00:31:28,140 九平方 927 00:31:28,140 --> 00:31:30,049 这不是火箭科学 928 00:31:30,049 --> 00:31:30,970 对吧 929 00:31:30,970 --> 00:31:34,049 看看这些服务是怎么搞砸的 930 00:31:34,049 --> 00:31:34,329 对吧 931 00:31:34,329 --> 00:31:35,529 他们有一个入口四叶草 932 00:31:35,529 --> 00:31:36,970 为什么要有四叶草 933 00:31:36,970 --> 00:31:39,299 为小屋设计四叶草 934 00:31:39,299 --> 00:31:40,200 这完全没道理 935 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,859 你开门进入另一扇门 936 00:31:42,859 --> 00:31:44,140 这完全不合理 937 00:31:44,140 --> 00:31:47,819 如果这是豪华小屋，我们到底在做什么 938 00:31:47,819 --> 00:31:49,779 所有东西都应该连通 939 00:31:50,390 --> 00:31:53,670 必须穿过步入式衣帽间 940 00:31:53,670 --> 00:31:58,750 再走到主卧室，衣帽间里还有浴缸 941 00:31:58,750 --> 00:32:00,710 你会翻我的煎饼 942 00:32:00,710 --> 00:32:01,960 我们到底在做什么 943 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,240 然后得穿过步入式衣帽间回到 944 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,579 最后进入这边的浴室 945 00:32:07,579 --> 00:32:11,740 这是什么鬼 946 00:32:11,740 --> 00:32:12,960 好的，不 947 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,500 然后我用了一笔投资 948 00:32:15,500 --> 00:32:17,059 首先谷歌麦道加尔 949 00:32:17,059 --> 00:32:18,079 我用了谷歌Gemini 950 00:32:18,079 --> 00:32:20,079 第一次做得太差了 951 00:32:20,079 --> 00:32:23,829 我用了半平方英尺做翻新和翻转 952 00:32:23,829 --> 00:32:24,349 呃 953 00:32:24,349 --> 00:32:25,549 主卧室衣柜 954 00:32:25,549 --> 00:32:26,210 这太荒谬了 955 00:32:26,210 --> 00:32:27,690 所以我再试一次 956 00:32:27,690 --> 00:32:29,990 好吧看看它做得有多差 957 00:32:29,990 --> 00:32:32,109 Gemini完成了一个简单任务 958 00:32:32,109 --> 00:32:33,690 它把卧室布置在这里 959 00:32:33,690 --> 00:32:33,910 好吧 960 00:32:33,910 --> 00:32:35,589 它放了一个主衣柜 961 00:32:35,589 --> 00:32:38,230 在两堵墙中间 962 00:32:38,230 --> 00:32:39,430 这完全没道理 963 00:32:39,430 --> 00:32:39,990 不过好吧 964 00:32:39,990 --> 00:32:41,190 所以我们这样做了 965 00:32:41,190 --> 00:32:43,589 然后它说主套房 966 00:32:43,589 --> 00:32:45,490 这是个浴室 967 00:32:45,730 --> 00:32:47,710 它甚至没连接主卧 968 00:32:47,710 --> 00:32:48,930 这本应是豪华赌场 969 00:32:48,930 --> 00:32:50,869 连个相连的浴室都没有 970 00:32:50,869 --> 00:32:53,888 它把浴室放在这里 971 00:32:53,888 --> 00:32:55,608 这完全没道理 972 00:32:55,608 --> 00:32:57,929 水槽多得离谱 973 00:32:57,929 --> 00:32:59,949 为什么这里要有三个水槽 974 00:32:59,949 --> 00:33:01,640 我们怎么会想到 975 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,279 这个挤在水槽间的迷你淋浴 976 00:33:05,279 --> 00:33:09,470 然后你得通过另一扇门才能进浴缸区 977 00:33:09,470 --> 00:33:12,569 没人会设计这么糟糕的东西 978 00:33:12,569 --> 00:33:15,190 连小孩都会做得比这好 979 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:17,440 看看这个 980 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,799 它在这里放了一个岛台和另一个淋浴 981 00:33:20,799 --> 00:33:22,200 我们大概要在这里有个淋浴 982 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,299 在岛台和一个水槽 983 00:33:24,299 --> 00:33:25,940 要到达那个水槽的唯一办法是 984 00:33:25,940 --> 00:33:29,039 爬过台面洗手 985 00:33:29,039 --> 00:33:30,279 我们这是在做什么 986 00:33:30,279 --> 00:33:31,559 天啊 987 00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:33,029 天啊 988 00:33:33,029 --> 00:33:34,289 这也太糟糕了 989 00:33:34,289 --> 00:33:36,650 然后它说这是很棒的主卧 990 00:33:36,650 --> 00:33:36,930 真的吗 991 00:33:36,930 --> 00:33:37,930 这是很棒的主卧 992 00:33:37,930 --> 00:33:39,230 然后它甚至没做到这一步 993 00:33:39,230 --> 00:33:40,230 像三维立体 994 00:33:40,230 --> 00:33:42,269 用奇怪的格式完成 995 00:33:42,269 --> 00:33:44,349 而且这完全没道理 996 00:33:44,349 --> 00:33:48,269 然后它有十英尺的滑动壁橱门 997 00:33:48,269 --> 00:33:52,150 据说后面还有一张沙发 998 00:33:52,769 --> 00:33:55,430 谁会把一堆东西放在你面前 999 00:33:55,430 --> 00:33:57,769 安装滑动壁橱门的真正目的 1000 00:33:57,769 --> 00:33:59,279 就是想要保持开放状态 1001 00:33:59,279 --> 00:34:01,019 这样你可以走到露台上去 1002 00:34:01,019 --> 00:34:02,640 你知道的 1003 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,140 这简直荒谬 1004 00:34:04,140 --> 00:34:05,559 然后没有电视 1005 00:34:05,559 --> 00:34:07,859 但也许我们可以把电视放在 1006 00:34:07,859 --> 00:34:10,650 那个需要爬着去的水槽后面 1007 00:34:10,650 --> 00:34:12,510 天啊 1008 00:34:12,510 --> 00:34:14,340 糟糕透了 1009 00:34:14,340 --> 00:34:15,579 糟糕透了 1010 00:34:16,699 --> 00:34:17,820 那你要怎么办 1011 00:34:17,820 --> 00:34:19,699 坐在这个椅子上，看看这些椅子的样子 1012 00:34:19,699 --> 00:34:21,269 天啊各位 1013 00:34:21,269 --> 00:34:23,010 这本来是简单任务 1014 00:34:23,010 --> 00:34:25,369 这不像什么火箭科学 1015 00:34:25,369 --> 00:34:26,230 比如 1016 00:34:26,230 --> 00:34:26,590 你知道的 1017 00:34:26,590 --> 00:34:28,809 你知道这有多疯狂 1018 00:34:28,809 --> 00:34:29,980 嗯 1019 00:34:30,340 --> 00:34:32,099 像这样的简单事情 1020 00:34:32,099 --> 00:34:32,420 我简直 1021 00:34:32,420 --> 00:34:32,940 天啊 1022 00:34:32,940 --> 00:34:34,400 现在还做不到这点 1023 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,000 像你 1024 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,079 投入这么多钱在AI上 1025 00:34:38,079 --> 00:34:39,980 来自谷歌和x.ai 1026 00:34:39,980 --> 00:34:40,840 还有这些其他公司 1027 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,719 你以为这种事应该很简单 1028 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:43,480 我喜欢 1029 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,739 画一个九百平方英尺的卡西塔 1030 00:34:45,739 --> 00:34:46,719 让它合理些 1031 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,329 这应该很容易 1032 00:34:48,329 --> 00:34:50,610 这不是特别复杂的事 1033 00:34:50,610 --> 00:34:55,019 建筑系一年级学生都能做到 1034 00:34:55,019 --> 00:34:55,760 并且理解 1035 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:55,980 好吧 1036 00:34:55,980 --> 00:34:57,480 这需要大致放在这里 1037 00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,480 这个要放在那边 1038 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,539 这种情况应该这样安排 1039 00:35:00,539 --> 00:35:01,300 兄弟 1040 00:35:01,300 --> 00:35:02,760 到底怎么回事 1041 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:03,920 我看过另一个视频 1042 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,510 这个人用chat GPT并询问了GPT 1043 00:35:07,510 --> 00:35:08,070 他说 1044 00:35:08,070 --> 00:35:09,190 嗯 1045 00:35:09,679 --> 00:35:12,420 洗车场离这里有100米 1046 00:35:12,420 --> 00:35:14,739 我需要开车去洗车 1047 00:35:14,739 --> 00:35:20,380 是步行还是开车更合理呢 1048 00:35:20,380 --> 00:35:20,860 说 1049 00:35:20,860 --> 00:35:21,260 哦 1050 00:35:21,260 --> 00:35:24,329 步行去洗车更合理 1051 00:35:24,329 --> 00:35:27,289 毕竟就只有100米远 1052 00:35:27,289 --> 00:35:29,030 这样对你来说是个不错的散步 1053 00:35:29,030 --> 00:35:30,329 然后他说到 1054 00:35:30,329 --> 00:35:32,469 我怎么洗车啊 1055 00:35:32,469 --> 00:35:34,420 如果我步行而水管又 1056 00:35:34,420 --> 00:35:34,639 哦 1057 00:35:34,639 --> 00:35:35,460 我明白你的意思了 1058 00:35:35,460 --> 00:35:35,920 所以 1059 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:36,260 是啊 1060 00:35:36,260 --> 00:35:37,340 我应该开车去洗车 1061 00:35:37,340 --> 00:35:37,860 就像 1062 00:35:37,860 --> 00:35:38,860 你觉得像 1063 00:35:38,860 --> 00:35:40,699 我觉得我们应该开车去洗车 1064 00:35:40,699 --> 00:35:41,760 这可能更聪明 1065 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:42,059 没错 1066 00:35:42,059 --> 00:35:44,300 这简直太荒谬了 1067 00:35:44,300 --> 00:35:45,528 总之 1068 00:35:45,528 --> 00:35:47,449 这就是AI的问题在于 1069 00:35:47,449 --> 00:35:48,449 我说兄弟 1070 00:35:48,449 --> 00:35:49,789 我们还有很长的路要走 1071 00:35:49,789 --> 00:35:55,659 就像你在华尔街听到的 hype 和兴奋 1072 00:35:55,659 --> 00:35:56,880 这听起来仿佛 1073 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:57,139 哦 1074 00:35:57,139 --> 00:35:58,980 Salesforce 将成为相关服务 1075 00:35:58,980 --> 00:36:00,099 在 Adobe 和这些公司 1076 00:36:00,099 --> 00:36:02,360 它将接管整个世界 1077 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:03,059 而人类 1078 00:36:03,059 --> 00:36:04,539 我们将走向灭绝 1079 00:36:04,539 --> 00:36:06,369 因为AI将完成所有事情 1080 00:36:06,369 --> 00:36:10,278 然后你让它画一座小屋 它立刻就画好了 1081 00:36:10,278 --> 00:36:14,940 在如此简单的任务上它接连犯错 1082 00:36:15,420 --> 00:36:17,869 我说兄弟 1083 00:36:18,190 --> 00:36:22,389 我们离AI统治世界还很远 1084 00:36:22,389 --> 00:36:24,510 我们以后可能没工作了 1085 00:36:24,510 --> 00:36:25,889 我说兄弟 1086 00:36:26,650 --> 00:36:27,929 天啊 1087 00:36:27,929 --> 00:36:29,139 天啊 1088 00:36:29,139 --> 00:36:31,139 这个游戏还有很长的路要走 1089 00:36:31,139 --> 00:36:32,079 首先是周三 1090 00:36:32,079 --> 00:36:34,800 这意味着许多公司需要大量A和B芯片 1091 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:35,739 多年 1092 00:36:35,739 --> 00:36:37,179 对于企业软件 1093 00:36:37,179 --> 00:36:38,500 Snowflake 同日 1094 00:36:38,500 --> 00:36:40,179 然后明晚 Workday 1095 00:36:40,179 --> 00:36:44,329 这家后台巨头必须回答HR和财务软件是否能生存 1096 00:36:44,329 --> 00:36:48,550 当我能够直接自动化这些工作流程时 1097 00:36:48,550 --> 00:36:50,849 高盛有一份正在流传的图表 1098 00:36:50,849 --> 00:36:53,480 这或许能解释为什么投资者感到不安 1099 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,340 即使数据看起来正常 1100 00:36:55,340 --> 00:36:55,820 它显示 1101 00:36:55,820 --> 00:36:55,980 哦 1102 00:36:55,980 --> 00:36:58,239 这就是昨天的峰值恐慌 1103 00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,719 这就是我为什么会说 1104 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,780 如果昨天是SaaS的底部 1105 00:37:01,780 --> 00:37:03,190 就像我不会感到意外 1106 00:37:03,190 --> 00:37:05,929 因为昨天那里正在发生这种情况 1107 00:37:05,929 --> 00:37:07,349 他们正在讨论 1108 00:37:07,349 --> 00:37:13,469 他们正在比较Salesforce的马克·贝尼奥夫公司 1109 00:37:13,469 --> 00:37:15,530 以及那边的卓越团队 1110 00:37:15,530 --> 00:37:16,750 还有他们令人惊叹的产品 1111 00:37:16,750 --> 00:37:17,710 你知道的 1112 00:37:17,710 --> 00:37:18,969 科技领导者 1113 00:37:18,969 --> 00:37:22,844 他们正在比较报业行业 1114 00:37:23,579 --> 00:37:25,380 他们正在比较ServiceNow 1115 00:37:25,380 --> 00:37:28,739 以及这些其他优秀的SaaS公司及其卓越团队 1116 00:37:28,739 --> 00:37:32,760 他们正在将其与报业行业比较 1117 00:37:34,639 --> 00:37:36,659 天啊 1118 00:37:37,300 --> 00:37:38,179 这就是我为什么会说 1119 00:37:38,179 --> 00:37:41,480 如果昨天是SaaS股票的底部 1120 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:42,920 我不会感到惊讶 1121 00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,250 因为当你跌到这个程度 1122 00:37:45,250 --> 00:37:48,010 当恐惧被放大到这种程度时 1123 00:37:48,010 --> 00:37:51,679 以至于将这些公司与报业行业相比 1124 00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:52,519 就像 1125 00:37:52,519 --> 00:37:54,099 我不知道还能跌到哪里 1126 00:37:54,099 --> 00:37:55,039 就是那种感觉 1127 00:37:55,039 --> 00:37:58,099 这必须是最糟糕的低点之一 1128 00:37:58,099 --> 00:38:03,860 报业股票从22年到2009年大幅下跌 1129 00:38:03,860 --> 00:38:06,599 财报表现良好且业务看似正常 1130 00:38:06,599 --> 00:38:09,000 直到突然一切都变了 1131 00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:15,280 市场提前数年预见到互联网颠覆并定价 1132 00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,440 所以担忧是软件现在处于相同模式 1133 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:19,860 财报仍保持稳定 1134 00:38:19,860 --> 00:38:21,159 我们可能本周就能看到 1135 00:38:21,159 --> 00:38:23,510 但股价已在市场暴跌 1136 00:38:23,510 --> 00:38:25,449 也许正在定价一个AI世界 1137 00:38:25,449 --> 00:38:26,550 代理正在完成工作 1138 00:38:26,550 --> 00:38:29,010 软件原本旨在帮助人类完成的任务 1139 00:38:29,010 --> 00:38:30,409 而这正是现在面临的冲击 1140 00:38:30,409 --> 00:38:31,650 那些网络安全股票 1141 00:38:31,650 --> 00:38:34,869 并非有人用单个提示就取代CrowdStrike 1142 00:38:34,869 --> 00:38:37,219 正如乔治·库尔茨所提到的 1143 00:38:37,219 --> 00:38:40,280 但当代理能够编写和部署代码 1144 00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,539 它们也能扫描和修补漏洞 1145 00:38:42,539 --> 00:38:43,780 本周发布财报的公司 1146 00:38:43,780 --> 00:38:46,949 他们必须证明自己不是被颠覆的对象 1147 00:38:46,949 --> 00:38:48,190 相反他们是颠覆者 1148 00:38:48,190 --> 00:38:49,550 我确定我能完成所有这些事 1149 00:38:49,550 --> 00:38:52,050 甚至画不出一间一居室的平面图 1150 00:38:52,050 --> 00:38:52,869 看看这样是否合理 1151 00:38:52,869 --> 00:38:53,030 是的 1152 00:38:53,030 --> 00:38:53,409 我确定 1153 00:38:53,409 --> 00:38:55,570 我确定这肯定会非常出色 1154 00:38:55,570 --> 00:38:56,590 而这一切就像 1155 00:38:56,590 --> 00:38:57,489 你知道的 1156 00:38:57,489 --> 00:39:00,079 发现所有网络安全威胁 1157 00:39:00,079 --> 00:39:00,880 你知道的 1158 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,739 然后编写所有代码并修复所有代码 1159 00:39:03,739 --> 00:39:04,659 我确定这只是 1160 00:39:04,659 --> 00:39:06,320 我确定它能做所有事 1161 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:06,980 它做不到 1162 00:39:06,980 --> 00:39:10,068 甚至无法设计一间一居室的房屋 1163 00:39:10,068 --> 00:39:11,369 但我确定它就像 1164 00:39:11,369 --> 00:39:12,688 能完成其他所有事情 1165 00:39:12,688 --> 00:39:14,768 这是我完全无法理解的地方 1166 00:39:14,768 --> 00:39:17,960 为什么开车去洗车店 1167 00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,269 而不是步行去洗车店 1168 00:39:20,269 --> 00:39:21,650 当你的车根本不在那里时 1169 00:39:21,650 --> 00:39:25,550 但我确定它在其他方面非常出色 1170 00:39:25,550 --> 00:39:26,590 在这个世界上来吧 1171 00:39:26,590 --> 00:39:28,500 男人在进行颠覆 1172 00:39:28,500 --> 00:39:30,420 在这样的环境中做到这一点很困难 1173 00:39:30,420 --> 00:39:30,960 各位 1174 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:31,380 是的 1175 00:39:31,380 --> 00:39:33,559 我喜欢这种延迟元素 1176 00:39:33,559 --> 00:39:34,219 延迟现象 1177 00:39:34,219 --> 00:39:39,019 因为上周B有一个流媒体对比图 1178 00:39:39,019 --> 00:39:40,139 当Netflix出现时 1179 00:39:40,139 --> 00:39:43,739 Blockbuster用了八年才消失 1180 00:39:43,739 --> 00:39:45,579 至于那个Substack 1181 00:39:45,579 --> 00:39:47,900 你提到的Citrini研究文章 1182 00:39:47,900 --> 00:39:49,318 现在正在广泛传播 1183 00:39:49,318 --> 00:39:50,219 他们的论点是 1184 00:39:50,219 --> 00:39:52,079 软件是开场秀 1185 00:39:52,079 --> 00:39:56,148 同样的逻辑会让服务公司裁员 1186 00:39:56,148 --> 00:39:59,009 可能适用于所有白领企业 1187 00:39:59,009 --> 00:40:01,009 没错然后想想安全领域 1188 00:40:01,009 --> 00:40:01,869 网络安全 1189 00:40:01,869 --> 00:40:04,628 这已被讨论为最难颠覆的行业之一 1190 00:40:04,628 --> 00:40:07,188 最困难的行业之一 1191 00:40:07,188 --> 00:40:09,420 也可以讨论法律和医疗行业 1192 00:40:09,420 --> 00:40:12,139 这些行业零容忍 1193 00:40:12,139 --> 00:40:14,650 很多人认为 1194 00:40:14,650 --> 00:40:16,550 它们不会被取代 1195 00:40:16,550 --> 00:40:18,570 这绝对是事实 1196 00:40:18,570 --> 00:40:22,869 但我说的是，设想未来变得越来越容易了 1197 00:40:22,869 --> 00:40:24,619 就像这个Atri笔记一样 1198 00:40:24,619 --> 00:40:25,579 在那种情况下 1199 00:40:25,579 --> 00:40:27,440 在技术不断进步的情况下 1200 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:27,699 没错 1201 00:40:27,699 --> 00:40:28,380 就像现在这样 1202 00:40:28,380 --> 00:40:30,480 技术状况最差 1203 00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:31,340 这将会是 1204 00:40:31,340 --> 00:40:33,420 你无法用一个提示词创造什么 1205 00:40:33,420 --> 00:40:34,920 但一年后 1206 00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,900 六个月后你能复现原型和几个提示词 1207 00:40:38,900 --> 00:40:39,739 上百个提示词 1208 00:40:39,739 --> 00:40:40,019 我说 1209 00:40:40,019 --> 00:40:41,780 这就是事情变得真正复杂的地方 1210 00:40:41,780 --> 00:40:44,559 这就是市场正在定价的内容 1211 00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:45,219 是的 1212 00:40:45,219 --> 00:40:49,280 但你知道你使用的问题在于他们 1213 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,619 他们在这里犯了大错 1214 00:40:51,619 --> 00:40:55,769 这里的大错就像 1215 00:40:55,769 --> 00:40:58,170 这就像非常初级的商业内容 1216 00:40:58,170 --> 00:40:59,170 这让我失望 1217 00:40:59,170 --> 00:41:03,210 当我听到如此糟糕的分析时，我就像这些优秀的人在错失 1218 00:41:03,210 --> 00:41:05,000 就像非常早期阶段 1219 00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,539 就像你去大学学习商业知识 1220 00:41:08,539 --> 00:41:09,019 好的 1221 00:41:09,019 --> 00:41:13,568 他们将B到C商业模式与B到B商业模式相比较 1222 00:41:13,568 --> 00:41:16,009 两者完全不同 1223 00:41:17,159 --> 00:41:20,478 你在商学院早期就学到了这一点 1224 00:41:20,478 --> 00:41:24,980 当我们谈论B到B体验时 1225 00:41:24,980 --> 00:41:28,579 并讨论拥有八万名员工的组织 1226 00:41:28,579 --> 00:41:29,679 五万名员工 1227 00:41:29,679 --> 00:41:31,199 两万名员工对吧 1228 00:41:31,199 --> 00:41:33,239 更换整个软件平台 1229 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:37,818 这类事情极其艰巨 1230 00:41:37,818 --> 00:41:40,139 然后让员工培训使用 1231 00:41:40,139 --> 00:41:42,139 可能存在漏洞的新系统 1232 00:41:42,139 --> 00:41:44,630 可能为了节省成本而犯错 1233 00:41:44,630 --> 00:41:45,449 最终结果会是 1234 00:41:45,449 --> 00:41:47,309 很可能花更多钱 1235 00:41:47,309 --> 00:41:49,030 因为你支付给这些公司的费用 1236 00:41:49,030 --> 00:41:51,309 实际上只占你收入的很小比例 1237 00:41:51,309 --> 00:41:54,000 没错，对于B到B公司来说 1238 00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:55,099 我知道B到B公司 1239 00:41:55,099 --> 00:41:58,710 我知道那些使用过时平台的企业 1240 00:41:58,710 --> 00:42:01,610 仅仅因为切换成本太过高昂 1241 00:42:01,610 --> 00:42:02,148 没错 1242 00:42:02,148 --> 00:42:04,949 那些过时的平台 1243 00:42:04,989 --> 00:42:05,630 暂且不提 1244 00:42:05,630 --> 00:42:07,989 像Salesforce和ServiceNow这样的前瞻性平台 1245 00:42:07,989 --> 00:42:09,550 以及这些正在采用新技术的公司 1246 00:42:09,550 --> 00:42:10,230 你知道吗 1247 00:42:10,230 --> 00:42:11,969 优秀的AI代理 1248 00:42:11,969 --> 00:42:13,150 就是这些类型的东西对吧 1249 00:42:13,150 --> 00:42:14,929 他们有巨大的盈利方式 1250 00:42:14,929 --> 00:42:15,710 顺便说一句 1251 00:42:15,710 --> 00:42:19,809 语言模型提供商和所有这些公司现在都需要销售团队服务 1252 00:42:19,809 --> 00:42:20,858 所有这些公司 1253 00:42:20,858 --> 00:42:23,298 他们唯一想大发横财的 1254 00:42:23,298 --> 00:42:26,818 Salesforce将通过向客户销售这些产品赚得盆满钵满 1255 00:42:27,858 --> 00:42:29,739 因为他们掌握所有数据 1256 00:42:29,820 --> 00:42:31,260 而数据才是关键所在 1257 00:42:31,260 --> 00:42:32,519 你无法做出这些决策 1258 00:42:32,519 --> 00:42:35,429 除非你拥有数据对吧 1259 00:42:35,429 --> 00:42:35,789 你知道的 1260 00:42:35,789 --> 00:42:37,510 如果你稍微了解这些商业模式 1261 00:42:37,510 --> 00:42:38,389 你开始逐渐理解 1262 00:42:38,389 --> 00:42:38,989 比如啊 1263 00:42:38,989 --> 00:42:40,550 这些公司其实非常必要 1264 00:42:40,550 --> 00:42:41,829 你无法绕过它们 1265 00:42:41,829 --> 00:42:42,809 我想这不可能 1266 00:42:42,809 --> 00:42:43,670 没错 1267 00:42:43,670 --> 00:42:48,019 所以在比较B端到C端到B2B 1268 00:42:48,019 --> 00:42:49,659 这根本行不通 1269 00:42:49,659 --> 00:42:51,190 报纸属于B2C模式 1270 00:42:51,820 --> 00:42:53,960 随着越来越多的人使用互联网 1271 00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:55,780 他们决定不再需要报纸 1272 00:42:55,780 --> 00:42:58,420 普通人做出这个决定很容易 1273 00:42:58,420 --> 00:42:59,900 并说我要取消报纸订阅 1274 00:42:59,900 --> 00:43:00,929 因为我现在 1275 00:43:00,929 --> 00:43:02,429 已经在网上阅读资讯了 1276 00:43:02,429 --> 00:43:03,548 对吧嗯 1277 00:43:03,548 --> 00:43:03,969 你知道的 1278 00:43:03,969 --> 00:43:07,849 人们从翻盖手机换到iPhone非常容易 1279 00:43:07,849 --> 00:43:10,030 这属于B2C决策 1280 00:43:10,030 --> 00:43:10,150 哦 1281 00:43:10,150 --> 00:43:11,510 我不需要新iPhone了 1282 00:43:11,510 --> 00:43:12,710 你知道手机要 1283 00:43:12,710 --> 00:43:13,469 就是翻盖手机 1284 00:43:13,469 --> 00:43:14,519 它会变成iPhone 1285 00:43:14,519 --> 00:43:16,619 B2C类事物转换迅速 1286 00:43:16,619 --> 00:43:18,210 非常快 1287 00:43:18,210 --> 00:43:20,938 B2B哦天啊 1288 00:43:21,858 --> 00:43:25,829 这需要数十年才能转变 1289 00:43:25,829 --> 00:43:29,570 当你的公司推出新服务和产品时 1290 00:43:29,570 --> 00:43:30,510 现在Salesforce 1291 00:43:30,510 --> 00:43:33,869 这些公司为你提供了巨大机遇 1292 00:43:33,869 --> 00:43:36,710 别提这种转变有多荒谬 1293 00:43:36,860 --> 00:43:39,599 所以必须考虑这一点 1294 00:43:39,599 --> 00:43:41,579 这就是说 1295 00:43:42,070 --> 00:43:42,650 你知道的 1296 00:43:42,650 --> 00:43:45,710 许多人的分析实在糟糕 1297 00:43:45,710 --> 00:43:47,230 这让我想到自己好像 1298 00:43:47,230 --> 00:43:50,250 人们连基础商业知识都理解吗 1299 00:43:50,250 --> 00:43:51,610 我真的一直在思考这个问题 1300 00:43:51,610 --> 00:43:53,690 他们连基础概念都理解吗 1301 00:43:54,690 --> 00:43:57,090 这根本不是特别复杂的议题 1302 00:43:57,090 --> 00:44:01,380 基础层面的东西，然后我在看这个AI 1303 00:44:01,380 --> 00:44:04,739 我甚至画不出一间带卧室的小屋 1304 00:44:05,659 --> 00:44:06,380 太疯狂了 1305 00:44:06,380 --> 00:44:07,800 外面到底发生了什么 1306 00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:09,079 正在翻煎饼呢 1307 00:44:09,079 --> 00:44:11,670 你说这就是并列关系 1308 00:44:11,670 --> 00:44:12,150 我是说 1309 00:44:12,150 --> 00:44:12,969 看看《纽约时报》 1310 00:44:12,969 --> 00:44:14,909 拉出这只股票的长期走势图 1311 00:44:14,909 --> 00:44:16,289 那时绝对是个绝佳买入时机 1312 00:44:16,289 --> 00:44:18,400 当股价只有每股六美元时 1313 00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,260 现在却创下历史新高 1314 00:44:20,260 --> 00:44:22,599 这里存在潜在赢家 1315 00:44:22,599 --> 00:44:23,820 只要有人能看透本质 1316 00:44:23,820 --> 00:44:24,980 我真正想问的是 1317 00:44:24,980 --> 00:44:25,239 不过 1318 00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:26,269 《纽约时报》现在还是报纸公司吗 1319 00:44:26,269 --> 00:44:27,989 绝对不是 1320 00:44:27,989 --> 00:44:29,650 它确保自己不会成为被颠覆的对象 1321 00:44:29,650 --> 00:44:33,199 反而成为了颠覆者 1322 00:44:33,199 --> 00:44:35,179 没错，它通过游戏和食谱等多元化收入 1323 00:44:35,179 --> 00:44:38,119 还有所有这些 1324 00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:39,000 其他业务 1325 00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,858 你知道的收入来源 1326 00:44:40,858 --> 00:44:41,798 这才是 1327 00:44:41,798 --> 00:44:42,278 例如 1328 00:44:42,278 --> 00:44:43,699 就像Fishman正在做的 1329 00:44:43,699 --> 00:44:45,179 我上周刚和Dylan Field聊过 1330 00:44:45,179 --> 00:44:48,300 他说和Claude Code达成了合作 1331 00:44:48,300 --> 00:44:50,869 他就像在欢迎狼群进入巢穴 1332 00:44:50,869 --> 00:44:52,230 但这类投资者 1333 00:44:52,230 --> 00:44:53,309 你知道的 1334 00:44:53,309 --> 00:44:55,429 Figma终将面临某种颠覆 1335 00:44:55,429 --> 00:44:57,570 但它也在成为颠覆者 1336 00:44:57,570 --> 00:45:01,300 通过与Anthropic和Claude Code合作 1337 00:45:01,300 --> 00:45:04,320 能在软件领域掌握这种能力的公司 1338 00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,199 现在正是绝佳投资标的 1339 00:45:06,199 --> 00:45:08,438 但眼下它只是个细胞 1340 00:45:08,438 --> 00:45:08,898 当然 1341 00:45:08,898 --> 00:45:10,898 它就是一个细胞 1342 00:45:10,898 --> 00:45:11,679 天啊 1343 00:45:11,679 --> 00:45:13,739 这就是科技一号 1344 00:45:13,739 --> 00:45:14,449 零一 1345 00:45:14,449 --> 00:45:16,648 这就是科技行业的常态 1346 00:45:16,648 --> 00:45:19,088 你必须不断重塑自己，对吧 1347 00:45:19,088 --> 00:45:21,768 你将拥有一个辉煌的五到十年十五年路线图 1348 00:45:21,768 --> 00:45:23,028 然后最终会发生一些事情 1349 00:45:23,028 --> 00:45:26,400 你必须重新造轮子并推出新产品和服务 1350 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:27,579 并适应市场变化 1351 00:45:27,579 --> 00:45:28,139 你知道的 1352 00:45:28,139 --> 00:45:31,420 公司当年迁移到云时经历过这个过程 1353 00:45:31,420 --> 00:45:32,960 他们不得不改变商业模式 1354 00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,340 从一次性费用转向订阅制模式 1355 00:45:36,340 --> 00:45:37,739 没错，当时有很多 1356 00:45:37,739 --> 00:45:41,480 当时围绕云计算成本有很多担忧 1357 00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:42,800 天啊 1358 00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,079 像Adobe和微软这样的公司 1359 00:45:45,079 --> 00:45:45,760 以及一大批企业 1360 00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,260 存在大量担忧 1361 00:45:48,500 --> 00:45:51,739 必须投入巨额资金到云服务 1362 00:45:51,739 --> 00:45:54,079 却无法从客户那里收回成本 1363 00:45:54,079 --> 00:45:59,679 因为当时云服务费用极高，无法获得前期大额收入 1364 00:45:59,679 --> 00:46:02,190 他们每月只能收取小额费用 1365 00:46:02,190 --> 00:46:04,530 需要很长时间才能回本 1366 00:46:04,530 --> 00:46:05,800 对此有很多担忧 1367 00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:09,920 猜猜微软的股价在云革命后飙升了多少 1368 00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,019 Adobe和其他公司股价也大幅上涨 1369 00:46:12,019 --> 00:46:17,070 没错，优秀企业会做正确的事 1370 00:46:17,070 --> 00:46:18,010 他们学会适应 1371 00:46:18,010 --> 00:46:19,110 及时转型 1372 00:46:19,110 --> 00:46:20,469 灵活调整 1373 00:46:20,469 --> 00:46:26,170 曾经威胁他们的颠覆性因素反而成为新的增长机遇 1374 00:46:26,170 --> 00:46:28,409 弱公司往往 1375 00:46:28,409 --> 00:46:29,809 会发生什么 1376 00:46:29,809 --> 00:46:31,449 会被淘汰出局 1377 00:46:31,449 --> 00:46:33,420 这就是现实 1378 00:46:33,420 --> 00:46:35,159 弱者终将 1379 00:46:35,159 --> 00:46:36,619 被遗忘 1380 00:46:36,619 --> 00:46:39,539 强者则持续壮大 1381 00:46:39,980 --> 00:46:40,380 就像 1382 00:46:40,380 --> 00:46:41,940 这就是规律 1383 00:46:43,219 --> 00:46:43,739 所以 1384 00:46:43,739 --> 00:46:44,300 总之 1385 00:46:44,300 --> 00:46:44,920 好了 1386 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:45,829 今天的 1387 00:46:45,829 --> 00:46:47,269 今天的分享就到这里 1388 00:46:47,269 --> 00:46:48,289 感谢大家一如既往的支持 1389 00:46:48,289 --> 00:46:49,070 非常感谢你们的到来 1390 00:46:49,070 --> 00:46:50,730 希望你们喜欢这个超长视频 1391 00:46:50,730 --> 00:46:52,550 我们录了近七分钟的精华内容 1392 00:46:52,550 --> 00:46:53,630 请点赞下方评论 1393 00:46:53,630 --> 00:46:55,469 想获取所有我的精品课程 1394 00:46:55,469 --> 00:46:56,750 加入私密Discord社群 1395 00:46:56,750 --> 00:46:57,050 随时交流 1396 00:46:57,050 --> 00:46:58,630 我每周独家视频 1397 00:46:58,630 --> 00:47:01,030 看看我在大型犬投资组合中的操作 1398 00:47:01,030 --> 00:47:05,099 你想加入的六七位数会员专属公众号 1399 00:47:05,099 --> 00:47:05,739 所有优质内容 1400 00:47:05,739 --> 00:47:06,539 在下方点赞评论 1401 00:47:06,539 --> 00:47:07,440 点击填写表单 1402 00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:08,539 看看能否加入私密群组 1403 00:47:08,539 --> 00:47:11,099 带你提升到目前水平更高的层次 1404 00:47:11,099 --> 00:47:12,909 你不再需要考虑这些话题 1405 00:47:12,909 --> 00:47:15,110 这些人的思维方式看待这些话题 1406 00:47:15,110 --> 00:47:15,530 好的 1407 00:47:15,530 --> 00:47:15,889 好的 1408 00:47:15,889 --> 00:47:16,070 各位 1409 00:47:16,070 --> 00:47:17,659 衷心祝福大家，祝您度过美好一天
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