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哈喽大家好
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欢迎回到阳光财经
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我是sunny
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今天是2026年6月2号星期二
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标普指数今天上涨9.82点
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涨幅0.13%
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涨幅非常有限
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但还是新高了
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目前的新高是7620点
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收盘是7609点
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每天涨一点
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每天创新高
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是美股多年来的特点
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它不是连续大阳线疯狂上涨
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放烟花一样
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几天干完
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接下来长期熊市恰恰慢
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就是快
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日积月累的
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最终涨幅惊人
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在这样的趋势下
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只能继续看涨
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什么时候突然来一个大阴线
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再来考虑调整是否到来
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纳斯达克指数今天上涨了7.09点
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涨幅0.03%
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今天没有创新高
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目前大盘的乖离率偏高
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指数离长期均线较远
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不论是标普还是纳指
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随时可以震荡调整
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已修复技术上超买的形态
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但按趋势又是短中长线上涨的样子
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所以顺势看涨吧
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提心吊胆的大盘持续上涨
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市场的消息也一边倒的
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几乎都是AI相关的
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但是目前的市场是不是过于贪婪
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过度膨胀了呢
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华尔街有两家大投行的老总
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对这个问题提出了自己的观点
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其中一个是高盛的CEO大卫所罗门
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他认为现在的市场正处于贪婪模式
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市场情绪乐观
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所以流动性非常充足
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我们现在无疑正处于一个贪婪
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远大于恐惧的时期
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接下来有几家大的公司要上市
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Spacex anthropic
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OpenAI等
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动不动上万亿
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人们担心
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市场能不能消化这么大规模的新股发行
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但是所罗门并不担心
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这些融资规模空前的同时
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市场财富和流动性也达到了历史新高
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足以支撑融资活动
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高盛CEO认为
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市场的贪婪可能转为恐惧
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但并不意味着一定会发生繁荣
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可能会持续很久时间
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我们很可能正处于周期的早期阶段
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那高盛作为投行当然喜欢更多的公司上市
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承销费用是一笔非常可观的收入
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高盛对IPO表示乐观
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是他本身的业务需要
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但从另一方面也可以看出
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高盛仍对当前市场相当乐观
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贪婪是贪婪了
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但是还能贪婪下去
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巴克莱在本月提出了股市明显狂热的观点
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整体对股市的判断方向是调整
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巴克莱认为
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AI基础设施特别是半导体和硬件
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在5月份显现直线上涨形态
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快速上涨后可能紧接着大幅回撤
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分析师仍看好美股的长期趋势
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但近期回调风险增加
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所以6月份巴克莱是长多短空的判断
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AI的火爆体现在黄仁勋指点江山
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说哪只股要大涨
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哪只股就立即大涨
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在台北电脑展上面啊
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黄仁勋和迈威尔的老板同台讲话时
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老黄介绍说
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这就是下一家万亿美元的公司
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因为他们的网络和连接芯片
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对数据中心来说不可或缺
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marvel注定成为下一家1万亿美元的公司
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那当你面对一个计算问题
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把它拆解成许多部分
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并分布到整个数据中心去跑时
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连接技术就非常重要了
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数据中心有先进的算力
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内存硬盘这些东西要连接到一起
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相当于数据之间的高速公路
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那么为什么是marvel这家公司是干什么的
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在老黄的眼里
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它还能涨四倍啊
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这个是真的吗
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老黄一句话
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迈威尔涨了30%
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数据中心有几万甚至几10万
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GPU显卡算力被分散到每一个芯片上
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芯片算得快还是不够
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还得芯片之间的通信速度要有保障
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marvel核心产品就是1.6T光学
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数字信号处理器和高带宽互联芯片
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据说数据中心的物理网络层离不开marvel的产品
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光电互联业务的增速
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今年可以达到70%以上
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数据中心业务占比高达76%
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使得marvel也是数据中心大爆发的受益者之一
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光电互联技术啊正是英伟达所需要的
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所以他们是合作而非竞争关系
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此外marvel的定制芯片业务也被老黄看中
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今年一季度
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英伟达向marvel投资了20亿美元
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双方联合推出了nvlink fusion平台
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通过这个合作
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其他巨头如果通过迈威尔设计定制芯片
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都可以接入英伟达的生态网络
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如果拿麦威尔对标博通
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就发现定制芯片和连接技术业务上万亿
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还真的有啊
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marvel的竞争对手博通市值已经2万亿以上了
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2026年营业收入预期发面博东是五六百亿
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marvel是115亿
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为了摆脱对英伟达的依赖
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谷歌微软
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亚马逊等云巨头都在自研ASIC芯片
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他们的定制芯片通常找两家公司来做
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一个是博通
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另一个就是迈威尔
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博通最核心的客户是谷歌TPU啊
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就是博通做的meta也是博通的重要客户
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迈威尔后来居上
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目前也接到了谷歌的TPU
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和微软的MAYA芯片订单
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博通是老大
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迈威尔是小弟
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小弟
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基数小
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又得到英伟达的加持
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应该是有较大的成长空间
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随着美股越来越多的公司镇上1万亿大关
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好像这个数字也逐渐没有那么神秘啦
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marvel今天大涨完是2500亿
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要上万亿
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还有300%的涨幅是现在的四倍
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在目前炙手可热的AI板块
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一只股票要涨十倍似乎挺容易的
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这两年十倍股好多啦
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所以呢marvel要再涨300%可能性是存在的
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不能低估这样的潜力呀
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硬件公司出一个财报就暴涨一个
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HPE今天大涨19%
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汇宇科技是干嘛的呢
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那要说到惠普这家公司
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惠普在2015年
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拆成了HPQ和HPE两家公司
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现在的惠普主打个人电脑和打印机
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HPE是惠宇
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它主要是在做企业级服务器
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云计算解决方案和超级计算机
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但是要看HPQ和HPE两只股
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就发现啊
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做服务器的要比做个人PC的好多了
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HPE大涨
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HPQ一般般
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那HPE公布的业绩大超预期
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每股收益79美分
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预期53美分
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营收106.8亿
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预期97.9亿
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传统服务器订单实现了三位数的增长
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所以这和戴尔一样
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服务器业务需求火爆
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人工智能题材个股四处开花
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主要原因是行业高景气度
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而且资金对人工智能特别看好
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以至于别的股票先放一边
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都在积极的买入人工智能相关概念股
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现在是要么加入
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要么旁观
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如果原来AI仓位不太够
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现在要加入个股都在高位买点不好把握
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那如果看好了个股略有回调就买
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也算是一种formal加仓的办法
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如果不加入
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选择在一边观望
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那一定要淡定
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实际上人工智能是美股的核心板块和权重板块
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股指之所以大涨特涨
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人工智能贡献度挺大的
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如果主力部队未来出现问题
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大盘也一定会选择回调
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到时候咱们手上那些不是AI的非硬件的股票
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还有可能会跟着大盘一起下跌
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所以加入AI的战斗
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有追高的恐惧
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不加入AI
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未来回调时也还是会亏钱
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昨天谷歌定增800亿
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伯克希尔拿了100亿
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阿贝尔接管伯克希尔手上都是钱
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错过了3年的AI行情
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现在股神放权了
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阿贝尔选择定增加仓
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交易完成后
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波希尔对谷歌的持股增加49%
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总共8640万股
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有两个问题
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我觉得大家可能想知道
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一是谷歌为什么要融资800亿
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另一个是
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伯克希尔
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为什么不直接在股市上面买股票就好了
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为什么要参与定增好
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第一个问题
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谷歌账上有钱
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在一季度资产负债表上
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谷歌的现金及现金等价物
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有1268亿美元
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但谷歌今年的资本开支将达到1800亿
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到1900亿
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2027年还会大幅增加
228
00:09:16,580 --> 00:09:18,340
地主家虽然有钱
229
00:09:18,340 --> 00:09:20,360
但要买的东西太多了
230
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,450
也觉得钱不太够
231
00:09:22,769 --> 00:09:24,590
谷歌还有自己的算盘
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00:09:24,590 --> 00:09:28,789
那就是利用这次的融资帮员工交税
233
00:09:28,789 --> 00:09:32,129
谷歌平时会给员工发股票奖励员工
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00:09:32,129 --> 00:09:34,089
拿到股票要交税
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00:09:34,089 --> 00:09:36,749
以前公司付钱帮员工交税
236
00:09:36,749 --> 00:09:40,870
这次谷歌通过卖出股票弥补现金支出
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00:09:40,870 --> 00:09:42,850
第二个问题就好说了
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00:09:42,850 --> 00:09:44,929
定增便宜了十几块钱
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00:09:44,929 --> 00:09:47,309
比从市场上买的省钱
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00:09:47,669 --> 00:09:49,710
同股同权的情况下
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00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:51,389
伯克希尔省下来的钱
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00:09:51,389 --> 00:09:53,629
未来卖出就都是利润
243
00:09:53,629 --> 00:09:56,769
此外伯克希尔在市场上买入股票
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00:09:56,769 --> 00:09:58,659
很容易引来跟风盘
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100个亿下去
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00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,500
股价一边买一边上涨
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00:10:02,500 --> 00:10:05,620
所以还不如直接参与增发股票
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00:10:05,620 --> 00:10:08,769
一次到账又便宜又省事儿
249
00:10:08,769 --> 00:10:11,590
那么伯克希尔加仓的谷歌
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00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:17,490
股神的光环现在远不如黄仁勋的加持啦
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00:10:17,490 --> 00:10:19,200
这是为什么呢
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00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,940
其实这次谷歌定增是增加了股票
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00:10:22,940 --> 00:10:24,850
正好和回购相反
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00:10:24,850 --> 00:10:27,070
市场上谷歌的股票变多啦
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00:10:27,070 --> 00:10:29,389
那就稀释了大家原来的股权
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00:10:29,389 --> 00:10:34,029
一股对应的公司股权比例略有下降啊
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股市并不欢迎增发新股
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00:10:35,950 --> 00:10:38,589
而是欢迎回购股票去注销
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00:10:38,589 --> 00:10:40,168
谷歌高位回调
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00:10:40,168 --> 00:10:41,708
我认为风险不大
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但我也不会再多买了
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00:10:43,740 --> 00:10:45,240
有观众留言说
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00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,419
阳光姐说一说
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00:10:46,419 --> 00:10:50,350
木头姐看到他买入CBRS我也跟了
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00:10:50,350 --> 00:10:52,850
不相信它真的是一买就跌嘛
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00:10:52,850 --> 00:10:55,700
已经跌了20%了哈
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00:10:55,700 --> 00:10:57,779
那木头姐确实是给人的印象
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00:10:57,779 --> 00:10:59,139
就是一买就跌
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00:10:59,139 --> 00:11:01,980
这主要是和她的交易风格有关
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00:11:01,980 --> 00:11:04,080
我观察他是不怎么追高
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00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:08,009
但喜欢抄底抄底大概率抄到半中间
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00:11:08,009 --> 00:11:10,578
怎么可能一抄就是绝对的底呢
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00:11:10,578 --> 00:11:13,298
通常追高容易继续上涨赚钱
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00:11:13,298 --> 00:11:15,230
因为顺趋势嘛
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抄底呢就容易被套
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00:11:17,250 --> 00:11:19,009
因为和趋势相反
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00:11:19,009 --> 00:11:20,370
趋势不变的话
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00:11:20,370 --> 00:11:21,769
一买就套
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00:11:21,769 --> 00:11:24,429
他买入股票应该不是按技术图形
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00:11:24,429 --> 00:11:26,049
觉得有创新价值
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00:11:26,049 --> 00:11:28,078
价格低了他就买了
282
00:11:28,078 --> 00:11:29,619
那我们和他不同啊
283
00:11:29,619 --> 00:11:31,719
他是拿别人的钱在抄底
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00:11:31,719 --> 00:11:33,619
而且仓位有控制
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00:11:33,619 --> 00:11:34,828
他不慌
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00:11:34,828 --> 00:11:36,908
我们是自己的钱抄底
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00:11:36,908 --> 00:11:38,489
仓位随心所欲
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00:11:38,489 --> 00:11:40,419
所以我们会慌
289
00:11:40,419 --> 00:11:42,419
CBRS是新股
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00:11:42,419 --> 00:11:45,039
仍在市场多空博弈的定价阶段
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00:11:45,039 --> 00:11:47,490
后市比较不容易预测
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00:11:47,490 --> 00:11:49,769
好的方面是题材不错
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00:11:49,769 --> 00:11:51,929
正好是半导体和人工智能题材
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00:11:51,929 --> 00:11:55,740
新股可能在推理芯片方面有一定的竞争力
295
00:11:55,740 --> 00:11:58,059
还有一个观众评论是sunny
296
00:11:58,059 --> 00:12:00,809
可以分析一下个股VRT吗
297
00:12:01,090 --> 00:12:04,350
VRT是给数据中心做散热降温的
298
00:12:04,350 --> 00:12:07,799
有全球顶尖的液冷技术和电源管理
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00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:09,960
只要数据中心还在扩张
300
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,669
这种相关配套的生意都还不错
301
00:12:12,669 --> 00:12:14,610
股价也是上升趋势
302
00:12:14,610 --> 00:12:16,490
我认为可以继续看涨
303
00:12:16,490 --> 00:12:19,610
我的公开账户今天净值21.5万
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00:12:19,610 --> 00:12:22,350
持仓只有高通和特斯拉上涨
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00:12:22,350 --> 00:12:24,450
其他全是下跌的
306
00:12:24,450 --> 00:12:27,029
虽然每只股都有未实现的盈利
307
00:12:27,029 --> 00:12:30,029
但感觉今年做的都不在风口上
308
00:12:30,029 --> 00:12:33,078
持有的半导体仓位太少了
309
00:12:33,078 --> 00:12:34,639
有观众问sunny
310
00:12:34,639 --> 00:12:36,700
高通是不是错杀
311
00:12:37,019 --> 00:12:39,720
高通目前正在直线上涨的趋势中
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00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,220
怎么会是错杀呢
313
00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:42,539
要说错杀
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00:12:42,539 --> 00:12:45,480
我觉得微软被错杀还有点可能
315
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,320
特斯拉也完全没有任何上涨的趋势
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00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:49,399
我耐心等待
317
00:12:49,399 --> 00:12:50,529
风水轮流转
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00:12:50,529 --> 00:12:53,809
可惜今年大家连比特币都觉得没劲儿
319
00:12:53,809 --> 00:12:56,379
只有半导体最有意思嗯
320
00:12:56,379 --> 00:12:58,480
炒股还是要随大流比较好啊
321
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:00,580
有位观众说
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00:13:00,580 --> 00:13:03,049
阿贝尔买入了TMHC
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00:13:03,049 --> 00:13:05,610
是不是AI泡沫要崩溃了
324
00:13:05,610 --> 00:13:08,330
大多数人都聚焦存储芯片和AI
325
00:13:08,330 --> 00:13:10,200
PC的股票狂热之中
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00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,700
但是股神巴菲特的接班人阿贝尔
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00:13:12,700 --> 00:13:14,159
今天用80多亿美元
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00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:17,068
收购了房屋建筑商TMHC
329
00:13:17,068 --> 00:13:20,669
因此TMHC今天暴涨了22%
330
00:13:20,669 --> 00:13:22,889
目前美国房地产市场低迷
331
00:13:22,889 --> 00:13:27,009
几大建筑商和相关的股票都被严重低估和超卖
332
00:13:27,009 --> 00:13:28,570
阿贝尔这举措
333
00:13:28,570 --> 00:13:31,129
是不是在为未来可能破灭的AI泡沫
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00:13:31,129 --> 00:13:33,068
做提前的准备吗
335
00:13:33,068 --> 00:13:34,389
要我说嘛
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00:13:34,389 --> 00:13:36,828
伯克希尔刚刚定增的谷歌
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00:13:36,828 --> 00:13:39,448
如果他觉得AI要泡沫破灭
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00:13:39,448 --> 00:13:42,340
他怎么会在如此高位买入呢
339
00:13:42,340 --> 00:13:44,740
当市场的核心题材崩溃时
340
00:13:44,740 --> 00:13:46,600
所有股票都难以幸免
341
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,519
不是说AI崩溃了
342
00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:50,578
别的股票就会起来啊
343
00:13:50,578 --> 00:13:51,899
正好相反啊
344
00:13:51,899 --> 00:13:53,318
AI崩溃的话
345
00:13:53,318 --> 00:13:55,298
那全部都要下跌了
346
00:13:55,298 --> 00:13:57,259
如果认为泡沫要破
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00:13:57,259 --> 00:13:59,870
最好的操作是守住现金
348
00:13:59,870 --> 00:14:02,389
我是觉得泡沫还能吹一阵子
349
00:14:02,389 --> 00:14:04,519
破了可就麻烦啦
350
00:14:04,759 --> 00:14:06,860
好那今天的节目就分享到这里
351
00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:07,779
感谢大家收看
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00:14:07,779 --> 00:14:08,940
我们下期节目再见
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00:14:08,940 --> 00:14:09,659
拜拜