【视野环球财经】20260224美股 META联姻AMD，买卖合算！NVDA只哆嗦了10分钟！Anthropic救火软件！HD财报大超预期

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年2月24号

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周二晚上的7.55分

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今天的美股四大指数啊是低开高走

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主要是受到AERROPIC公司发布会的提振啊

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公司呢是宣布了与众多软件公司的合作

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缓解了人们对这些公司被人工智能颠覆的担忧

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那么今天标普的11个板块也是大多数走强啊

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只有医疗和能源是小幅收跌

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其中非必需品和科技板块领涨

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那么科技板块呢是受到了A

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AMD大幅上涨的提振啊

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今天整个都走得不错

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稍后呢会讲到AMD和meta的合作

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以及对英伟达的影响好

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我们首先还是来讲一下关于这个answer opec呃

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今天成了整个的软件股的救火队长啊

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软软件股呢在今天在呃IGV这边呢

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是直接开盘呢就出现了一个比较大的拉升

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嗯最终呢还是收涨了1.91%啊

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也是走得不错

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主要呢是今天啊公司公布了十种新的方式

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帮助企业客户将其技术应用于关键的工作领域

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那么这些方式呢

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可以帮助完成向投资银行的交易审查

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财富管理的投资组合分析

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以及人力资源相关的任务

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其他呢还包括面向私募股权

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工程和设计的插件啊

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所以呢给的这个工具呃

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这种运用的方式非常的多

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那么在今天的这个发布会之后啊

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市场把他和呃软件公司的这种合作

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那么视为一个合作伙伴关系

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而不是替代关系

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市场之前的叙事

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不是说整个的像cloud这边出现了很多的工具

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会颠覆软件吗

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呃那么今天的这个发布会呢

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是澄清了一些呃这个影响啊

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呃相当于是帮了整个的软件一把呃

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特别是德意志银行呢

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在今天还写了一份研究报告呃

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他们更加的确信的是

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模型提供商不太可能取代现有的软件企业

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而是将自己及其代理

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定位为现有系统之上的编排层

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也就是说呢

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它会作为一个辅助工具去进行运用啊

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所以呢今天我们看到很多的软件股

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其实啊呃都是出现了反弹

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但是呢今天反弹的最好的是甲骨文以及CRM

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这两家公司呢

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今天实际上在今天的上涨之后

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回吐的都不多啊

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哥和整个IGV的走势差不多啊

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是属于比较强势的

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但是像INTU啊

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今天呢本身是有一个很好的

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和他的一个合作的消息

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冲高之后继续回落啊

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最终还收跌

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主要呢是因为这个地方确实破位了啊

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技术面走了一个破位的走势

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所以呢反弹之后

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很多的这个目前仍旧不看好软件的朋友呢

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选择了这个暂时的离场呃

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包括其他的

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还有这个PMW今天呢也是冲高回落啊

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还有这个CRWD也是一样的情况

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呃

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总体来讲

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今天主要是甲骨文和CIM

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受到的提振比较多一点

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还有就是私募这边的蓝猫头鹰啊

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因为今天整个的软件呢似乎有这种呃

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这个呃从消息面上的一些澄清

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所以今天蓝猫头鹰呢也是涨了2.78%

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而且成交量非常大呃

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那么今天的这个软件股啊开始反弹呃

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但是在今天的盘后

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其实咱们看到部分的软件股

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又出现了小幅的下跌

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所以呢软件股的这一波反弹啊

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咱们呢还需要观察几天啊

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看看到底有没有持续性

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还是只是昙花一现

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等反弹之后呢

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有更多的人逃跑

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因为我们说这一次啊

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实际上流动性的问题需要靠信心来解决

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卖的人越少

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那么卖方的力量越薄弱

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其实对于整个流动性的解决是有好处的

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所以呢我们来后面观察一下啊

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包括今天的微软

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实际上呢也是呃没有大幅放量啊

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但是和平均成交量相比呢是有一点点上涨的

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但今天的涨幅不大啊

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只涨了1.18%

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也主要是盘中冲高的这个高点

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到最后的收盘呢也没有突破啊

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还是在这个位置上好

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所以呢微软这边的加仓呢

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我还要等一等啊

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我暂时没有那么着急

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因为刚才说过这个反弹持续性如何

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后面还需要继续观察好

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接下来的时间呢我想讲一个财报啊

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就是HD的财报啊

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讲完之后呢

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还会讲讲AMD和meta的合作到底是一个什么情况啊

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对于股价的影响

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还有就是像meta本身啊

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呃啊还有这个MD他们现在股价所处的位置

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以及像这个英伟达这边

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他今天啊其实是哆嗦了一下啊

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但是没哆嗦太久

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也就持续了10分钟

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股价就被拉上去

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明天发财报啊

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咱们也看一下英伟达市场的一些压铸的情况好

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那咱们呢首先来看一下HD的财报

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呃HD的财报呢还是把数据给大家先列一下

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HD呢是每股收益是2.72

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高于市场普遍预期的2.53

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那么这个呢是16个季度以来啊

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就是HD16个季度以来最大的超预期表现啊

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就是超出的最多的一次

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营收呢是超出预期约30个基点

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同店销售额增长0.4%

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高于市场普遍预期的-0.4啊

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这一点是非常出人意料的

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毛利率呢是超出预期40个基点

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这一块也比市场预期的要好得多

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从前瞻上看呢

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但是这次变化不大

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全年的业绩指引和在12月9号

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分析师日给出的预期是完全相同的啊

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就是基本上呢是没有什么什么呃

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没有什么变化

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当时有一个分析师日给出的这个值呢

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到今天还是重申了一遍

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就是每股收益增长0%到4%

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同店销售增长0%到2%

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唯一的变化呢是股息提高了1.3%啊

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这是HD的财报细节好

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我们看一下它的前瞻估值额

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截止到今天为止呢

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我们目前在26年1月的这个财年就截止了啊

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所以现在的数据已经是进入下个财年

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27年1月是259~433

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中位是346

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价格呢在中位数上偏高一点点

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那么从综述上呢

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现在呢EPS我这边预计给的是一个最大值啊

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它前瞻上的最最大值是4%

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后面这个需要一些调整

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调整完毕之后再给大家做一些更新呃

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那么从技术面上看呢

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现在的价格往上走

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遇到的最近的一个强压力是在389

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过了之后呢

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会去397~408啊

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然后上方呢在上方就有只有一个压力

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就是416~424

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那就是全高了

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那么向下呢比较强的支撑是在344~366

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这些值呢都更新过

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再往下是328~336啊

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所以呢下方的强支撑

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这些位置你结合着前瞻估值来进行考虑呃

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如果你特别看好它未来业绩的大幅复苏

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增长的话

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你可以考虑去拿

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但是额现在的情况从今年的前瞻看呢

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确实还要这一年还是比较呃

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就是增速是比较慢的啊

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就是0~4呃

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稍有纰漏呢

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就可能会掉到四以下

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总体来讲呢H这是比较稳健啊

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我们只能说它稳健

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但是呢大幅增长的业绩现在没有看到

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管理层没有给到

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所以呢是一支比较暂时低吸

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稳健慢慢去拿

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等业绩回升的股票好

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这个是HD

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接下来呢我们看一下AMD和meta的合作啊

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呃首先我们看一下这个合作细节

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meta呢是与MD签署了一份重磅协议

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将斥资数千亿美元购买人工智能的设备

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并获得AMD10%的股份

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那么meta呢是披露了一项多年协议

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宣布将购买高达六几瓦的AMD的GPU

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来为其下一代的AI数据中心提供动力

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那么将在2026年

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也就是今年的下半年开始部署这些MD芯片

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第一阶段将支持E级瓦的部署啊

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那么后面随着年限的增长

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逐渐的把剩下的5G瓦全部都部署完毕啊

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使用它的GPU呃

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那么这个里边比较关键的一项内容是还披露了

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meta会获得一份基于业绩的认股权证

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最多可以认购1.6亿股的AMD的股票

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那么这个认股权证呢

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将根据与芯片出货量相关的特定的里程碑

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进行归属

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首批认股权证

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将在AMD芯片出货量达到一起瓦的时候拿到

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后续呢

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将随着meta的采购规模扩大到六几瓦的时候

217
00:09:42,340 --> 00:09:44,730
而完成所有的归属

218
00:09:45,049 --> 00:09:48,929
现在呢meta已经是AMD的第一大客户啊

219
00:09:48,929 --> 00:09:51,389
第二大客户第一大是这个OpenAI啊

220
00:09:51,389 --> 00:09:56,149
因为10月份的时候OpenAI和AMD签署过一项协议

221
00:09:56,149 --> 00:09:56,389
呃

222
00:09:56,389 --> 00:09:58,610
和这个非常的类似啊

223
00:09:58,610 --> 00:09:59,919
非常非常的类似

224
00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:02,720
也是呃类似的这种里程碑式的协议

225
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:03,679
然后购买芯片

226
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,250
然后部分的股权的一个认证

227
00:10:06,250 --> 00:10:09,490
好我说一下对这件事情的看法

228
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:17,019
目前呢呃meta购买AMD的这个呃CPU啊啊GPU啊

229
00:10:17,019 --> 00:10:19,159
然后去获得股份

230
00:10:19,159 --> 00:10:22,159
其实整个的这个方式

231
00:10:22,159 --> 00:10:26,019
它还是属于供应商融资循环的一种

232
00:10:26,019 --> 00:10:28,000
唉怎么去理解呢

233
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:29,740
呃你你想啊

234
00:10:29,740 --> 00:10:34,500
meta呢它是相当于是花钱的一方对吧

235
00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:36,519
他花完钱之后

236
00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:39,210
然后呢获得10%的股份

237
00:10:39,210 --> 00:10:41,970
那么这个股份现在按照总市值

238
00:10:41,970 --> 00:10:43,490
大概3486亿

239
00:10:43,490 --> 00:10:45,700
我们算个整3500亿来算

240
00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:48,779
相当于是价值350亿

241
00:10:48,779 --> 00:10:52,740
如果按照AMD提供的里程碑啊

242
00:10:52,740 --> 00:10:57,059
就是几年后它的股价会涨到600块钱啊

243
00:10:57,059 --> 00:10:59,940
这是之前我们讲过MD有一个里程碑的计划啊

244
00:10:59,940 --> 00:11:01,529
会股价到600

245
00:11:01,529 --> 00:11:03,350
那非常多年之后了啊

246
00:11:03,350 --> 00:11:05,509
呃那么这10%的股份呢

247
00:11:05,509 --> 00:11:09,110
就会价值相当于700亿呃

248
00:11:09,110 --> 00:11:12,730
那就相当于啊呃这个呃这不是700亿啊

249
00:11:12,730 --> 00:11:13,509
呃三倍啊

250
00:11:13,509 --> 00:11:15,529
那相当于呢是差不多呃

251
00:11:15,529 --> 00:11:16,639
是将近1000亿

252
00:11:16,639 --> 00:11:20,879
那么相当于这是打了一个大大的折扣

253
00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:24,740
相当于meta呢是用时间换了这个折扣

254
00:11:24,740 --> 00:11:28,929
相当于你就变相的是没有花这个钱对吧

255
00:11:28,929 --> 00:11:29,610
如果你打个比方

256
00:11:29,610 --> 00:11:30,549
你花了1000亿

257
00:11:30,549 --> 00:11:35,120
最后又用很少的资金获得了1000亿市值的股票

258
00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,519
那么这个对于meta来讲非常的划算啊

259
00:11:38,519 --> 00:11:39,860
现在我先给钱

260
00:11:39,860 --> 00:11:41,480
然后呢你给我一部分股份啊

261
00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:43,658
充实我的这个资产负债表啊

262
00:11:43,658 --> 00:11:45,178
已经为你属于股权吧

263
00:11:45,178 --> 00:11:46,658
我小于股权投资的一部分

264
00:11:46,658 --> 00:11:49,589
也可以纳入到这个资产负债表里面去

265
00:11:49,589 --> 00:11:51,548
所以他也没吃什么亏

266
00:11:51,548 --> 00:11:53,149
那么对于AMD来讲

267
00:11:53,149 --> 00:11:55,188
大幅采购它的产品

268
00:11:55,188 --> 00:11:56,529
增加它的营收

269
00:11:56,529 --> 00:11:58,950
对它绝对是一个利好啊

270
00:11:58,950 --> 00:12:00,950
所以从远期来看

271
00:12:00,950 --> 00:12:03,559
我认为这是一个双赢的结果

272
00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:04,840
前提哈

273
00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:05,919
当然有个前提啊

274
00:12:05,919 --> 00:12:11,240
就是but哼就是这个实现过程中不能出现中断

275
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,700
其实逻辑和OpenAI是一样的

276
00:12:13,700 --> 00:12:17,909
OpenAI承诺的要采购的这个价值

277
00:12:17,909 --> 00:12:20,470
你要真正的付钱才行

278
00:12:20,470 --> 00:12:22,710
你要去采购的到才行好吧

279
00:12:22,710 --> 00:12:25,419
如果你没有办法支付其中部分的成本

280
00:12:25,419 --> 00:12:26,440
没有那么多现金

281
00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:27,759
最后那你采购不到

282
00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:31,570
或者由于整个的AI环节哪一环出了问题

283
00:12:31,570 --> 00:12:33,830
市场整个的趋势发生变化

284
00:12:33,830 --> 00:12:35,610
这个采购无法进行下去了

285
00:12:35,610 --> 00:12:40,049
那就可能就就会产生这种连锁反应啊

286
00:12:40,049 --> 00:12:43,019
就是火烧的这个连营啊

287
00:12:43,019 --> 00:12:44,460
差不多这个铁甲船对吧

288
00:12:44,460 --> 00:12:47,259
铁船呢那个木船呢用铁链一连

289
00:12:47,259 --> 00:12:50,460
然后呢就直接一烧一个漏了一个

290
00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:53,379
可能都得这个这个殃及池鱼

291
00:12:53,379 --> 00:12:56,299
所以呢前提啊前提是能实现哈

292
00:12:56,299 --> 00:12:57,899
如果是这个都能实现

293
00:12:57,899 --> 00:12:59,659
绝对是一个很好的双赢

294
00:12:59,659 --> 00:13:01,740
结果好

295
00:13:01,740 --> 00:13:04,019
那么AMD的股价怎么看呢

296
00:13:04,019 --> 00:13:09,899
呃我这里呢已经在今天更新了AMD的价格的前瞻

297
00:13:10,879 --> 00:13:14,639
26年的前瞻价值是197~263

298
00:13:14,639 --> 00:13:15,639
中卫是230

299
00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:19,818
现在的市价213高于前瞻的低位

300
00:13:19,818 --> 00:13:21,259
低于中位啊

301
00:13:21,259 --> 00:13:22,778
属于合理水平啊

302
00:13:22,778 --> 00:13:24,058
并没有严重高估

303
00:13:24,058 --> 00:13:25,979
因为25年已经走完了

304
00:13:25,979 --> 00:13:27,149
现在看的是26年

305
00:13:27,149 --> 00:13:29,909
那么27年呢会大幅的提升

306
00:13:29,909 --> 00:13:32,009
298~397

307
00:13:32,009 --> 00:13:33,899
中卫是347

308
00:13:33,899 --> 00:13:36,860
所以它的价格现在在所处的这个位置啊

309
00:13:36,860 --> 00:13:37,940
并没有高估

310
00:13:37,940 --> 00:13:38,779
我们之前也讲过

311
00:13:38,779 --> 00:13:41,899
其实190以下AMD呢就算低估了

312
00:13:41,899 --> 00:13:44,220
等同于英伟达在180几块钱啊

313
00:13:44,220 --> 00:13:45,078
都属于低估

314
00:13:45,078 --> 00:13:47,859
但是如果之前像涨到什么两百五六

315
00:13:47,859 --> 00:13:49,990
那肯定就跑得太快了好

316
00:13:49,990 --> 00:13:51,549
但今天呢有了这个新的利好

317
00:13:51,549 --> 00:13:54,100
相当于额外的增加了一笔营收

318
00:13:54,100 --> 00:13:57,700
AMD的情况呢就变得会更加的积极

319
00:13:57,700 --> 00:13:58,500
也更加的乐观

320
00:13:58,500 --> 00:14:02,169
今天很明显的是一个极大的放量

321
00:14:02,169 --> 00:14:04,889
那么这个放量呢我们看一下技术面

322
00:14:04,889 --> 00:14:06,210
今天更新完了之后呢

323
00:14:06,210 --> 00:14:08,690
是202~222啊

324
00:14:08,690 --> 00:14:10,690
202~222这个地方啊

325
00:14:10,690 --> 00:14:13,840
是目前的这个压力所在的位置

326
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,080
之前写的是207

327
00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:15,759
大家还记得吗

328
00:14:15,759 --> 00:14:18,068
跌破207之后陷入了一个震荡

329
00:14:18,068 --> 00:14:21,970
所以目前第一步要先看它能够突破222

330
00:14:21,970 --> 00:14:23,809
那这个价格呢就能站得稳

331
00:14:23,809 --> 00:14:26,360
如果回不到222上方

332
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,200
往下还是一个震荡啊

333
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,899
它还是一个这种来回的这个区间震荡

334
00:14:30,899 --> 00:14:34,309
打摆子横在这里等更多的利好刺激呃

335
00:14:34,309 --> 00:14:36,029
如果过了222之后呢

336
00:14:36,029 --> 00:14:37,809
下一步的看点就比较多了

337
00:14:37,809 --> 00:14:40,519
那往上呢只有一个中等的压力

338
00:14:40,519 --> 00:14:43,519
那这个压力呢就相对现在的222

339
00:14:43,519 --> 00:14:45,419
这一线来讲就压力小很多

340
00:14:45,419 --> 00:14:48,320
过去之后直接就上看前高了

341
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,460
因为他的前端估值水平

342
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:51,899
按照自然力来讲

343
00:14:51,899 --> 00:14:53,330
如果越往后推

344
00:14:53,330 --> 00:14:55,889
他就会越去走27年的前瞻

345
00:14:55,889 --> 00:14:57,889
那它这个价格就变得非常的低啊

346
00:14:57,889 --> 00:14:58,850
非常的低估啊

347
00:14:58,850 --> 00:15:03,759
所以AMD这边呢大家如果在207往下的震荡

348
00:15:03,759 --> 00:15:05,078
这个里边你有低吸的

349
00:15:05,078 --> 00:15:06,320
或者你压根也没走的

350
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,120
一直拿着在202到222

351
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,039
这一线成本的

352
00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:10,399
你就慢慢去拿一下啊

353
00:15:10,399 --> 00:15:12,840
因为现在都是一些利好释放出来啊

354
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,288
暂时呢他们作为卖铲子的呃

355
00:15:16,288 --> 00:15:18,538
这个这个行业里边比较稳健的

356
00:15:18,538 --> 00:15:20,058
不管别的怎么样啊

357
00:15:20,058 --> 00:15:21,318
他们像什么AMD啊

358
00:15:21,318 --> 00:15:22,440
像什么呃

359
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:23,100
英伟达呀

360
00:15:23,100 --> 00:15:24,279
像什么台积电呐

361
00:15:24,279 --> 00:15:26,000
这都属于卖铲子啊

362
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,919
卖卖这个这个这个产产业链上

363
00:15:28,919 --> 00:15:30,259
是他们都需要的一环

364
00:15:30,259 --> 00:15:32,700
而且呢都是有一些护城河的啊

365
00:15:32,700 --> 00:15:35,759
因为今天大家可能看到有的公司呃

366
00:15:35,759 --> 00:15:38,559
做空这个闪迪SDNK对吧

367
00:15:38,559 --> 00:15:41,960
目这个做空的理由就是他们卖的是普通商品啊

368
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,159
没有护城河啊

369
00:15:43,159 --> 00:15:44,940
所以呢这是变成了一个做空的理由

370
00:15:44,940 --> 00:15:48,120
但你像AMD英伟达和台积电

371
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,159
它是有护城河的啊

372
00:15:49,159 --> 00:15:54,019
所以这个行业即便是要最后要出现崩溃

373
00:15:54,019 --> 00:15:55,639
或者要出现大幅回撤

374
00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:56,779
或者有什么问题

375
00:15:56,779 --> 00:15:59,460
那肯定也是外围的先掉啊

376
00:15:59,460 --> 00:16:00,620
这个就像相当于什么

377
00:16:00,620 --> 00:16:01,799
相当于投资房地产

378
00:16:01,799 --> 00:16:04,500
房地产呢你可能房价上行的时候

379
00:16:04,500 --> 00:16:05,379
你不管买哪里

380
00:16:05,379 --> 00:16:09,639
你是买这个市中心核心地段最好的地段

381
00:16:09,639 --> 00:16:13,220
它涨你买到郊县去郊区周边对吧

382
00:16:13,220 --> 00:16:15,350
你买到五六环去它也涨

383
00:16:15,350 --> 00:16:16,549
那都看不出来

384
00:16:16,549 --> 00:16:18,289
但是呢一旦出现问题的时候

385
00:16:18,289 --> 00:16:19,450
谁跌得最快啊

386
00:16:19,450 --> 00:16:20,330
外围啊

387
00:16:20,330 --> 00:16:22,379
非核心地段跌得最快

388
00:16:22,379 --> 00:16:24,799
跌的最慢的是核心地段

389
00:16:24,799 --> 00:16:26,860
它是从外面往外头包回来的

390
00:16:26,860 --> 00:16:29,840
其实这个产业链上AI这个也是一样啊

391
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:31,440
如果出现问题要回撤

392
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:32,840
外围的跌得最快

393
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:34,899
核心的跌的最慢

394
00:16:35,139 --> 00:16:37,799
好额这个呢是AMD的情况

395
00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:38,779
那么说到这呢

396
00:16:38,779 --> 00:16:40,980
还是把meta跟一下

397
00:16:43,340 --> 00:16:46,039
呃麦当的情况我们之前给过前瞻估值

398
00:16:46,039 --> 00:16:48,779
26年前瞻是513~1044

399
00:16:48,779 --> 00:16:49,740
中卫是778

400
00:16:49,740 --> 00:16:51,659
27年是582~1186

401
00:16:51,659 --> 00:16:53,500
中卫是884呃

402
00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:55,460
那么增速呢还可以两位数啊

403
00:16:55,460 --> 00:16:57,519
双位数的一个高双位数的一个增长

404
00:16:57,519 --> 00:16:59,980
它的价格看法呢目前仍旧没变

405
00:16:59,980 --> 00:17:03,620
下方的这个就是大概从500~700这一线啊

406
00:17:03,620 --> 00:17:07,309
500~700这一线全部都是长线布局的位置

407
00:17:07,309 --> 00:17:10,779
现在的价格波动呢今天小涨一点点呃

408
00:17:10,779 --> 00:17:12,759
其实成交量还行吧

409
00:17:12,759 --> 00:17:14,220
一般般也不是特别大

410
00:17:14,220 --> 00:17:15,099
属于横盘

411
00:17:15,099 --> 00:17:16,828
这个走势呢就没什么看头

412
00:17:16,828 --> 00:17:17,148
呃

413
00:17:17,148 --> 00:17:18,348
单从长线来讲呢

414
00:17:18,348 --> 00:17:20,068
我的态度和观点不变啊

415
00:17:20,068 --> 00:17:22,150
他500~700这个区间

416
00:17:22,150 --> 00:17:25,230
如果拿到额这个成本的朋友

417
00:17:25,230 --> 00:17:26,309
拿到筹码的朋友呢

418
00:17:26,309 --> 00:17:28,289
就坐稳扶好啊

419
00:17:28,289 --> 00:17:29,329
坐稳扶好啊

420
00:17:29,329 --> 00:17:32,339
这个后面呢问题不大的好

421
00:17:32,339 --> 00:17:35,160
然后呢接下来说一下英伟达

422
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,579
因为马上要财报了

423
00:17:38,859 --> 00:17:40,700
呃今天的英伟达啊

424
00:17:40,700 --> 00:17:44,319
是受到了meta和AMD这个消息的影响

425
00:17:44,319 --> 00:17:45,200
大家可以看到啊

426
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,599
这个一口气一开盘碰就掉下来

427
00:17:47,599 --> 00:17:49,359
跌了差不多2%

428
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,400
呃但是呢这个哆嗦呢也仅仅是哆嗦了一下啊

429
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:54,480
还没看清对吧

430
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:55,759
是谁在吓他对吧

431
00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:57,039
一下就给买上去了

432
00:17:57,039 --> 00:17:58,279
也就10分钟

433
00:17:58,279 --> 00:18:00,779
所以呢这个是个什么问题呢

434
00:18:00,779 --> 00:18:04,839
大家会说那meta买了AMD的就不要英伟达的了吗

435
00:18:04,839 --> 00:18:06,539
可能大家忘记了

436
00:18:06,539 --> 00:18:10,829
其实关于meta和英伟达的合作

437
00:18:10,829 --> 00:18:14,299
上个星期meta啊已经说过了

438
00:18:14,299 --> 00:18:17,039
他说他会购买数百万块

439
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:19,829
数百万块的英伟达的GPU啊

440
00:18:19,829 --> 00:18:22,069
所以呢这个事大家可能忘记了啊

441
00:18:22,069 --> 00:18:23,549
其实这里面也是要买

442
00:18:23,549 --> 00:18:25,349
也就意味着他既要买英伟达的

443
00:18:25,349 --> 00:18:26,619
也要买AMD的

444
00:18:26,619 --> 00:18:28,720
无非就是可能产能不够

445
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,619
或者价格高高低和性价比的问题对吧

446
00:18:31,619 --> 00:18:34,000
这个高低呃搭着买呗

447
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:34,920
大致买的话

448
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,099
他是把这个它的算力推上去嘛

449
00:18:37,099 --> 00:18:41,589
所以英伟达本身不会因为meta买了AMD

450
00:18:41,589 --> 00:18:42,710
就不买英伟达啊

451
00:18:42,710 --> 00:18:43,789
这个说不过去啊

452
00:18:43,789 --> 00:18:46,329
所以之前已经讲过了要购买的问题

453
00:18:46,329 --> 00:18:49,269
所以英伟达呢这个是可能有些朋友想通了

454
00:18:49,269 --> 00:18:50,369
想通了又买回来

455
00:18:50,369 --> 00:18:53,380
再加上核心问题是明天要财报

456
00:18:53,380 --> 00:18:55,220
现在的价格高不高呢

457
00:18:55,220 --> 00:18:57,440
本身也不是特别的高啊

458
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:58,839
因为我们看27年啊

459
00:18:58,839 --> 00:18:59,759
不要看这个26年啊

460
00:18:59,759 --> 00:19:01,240
因为这个26年已经马上

461
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,000
明天财报披露之后就结束了

462
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,480
看27年实际上在190块钱以下的

463
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,579
英伟达价格不高的啊

464
00:19:08,579 --> 00:19:09,680
价格不高的

465
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,240
但是它的价格比较恶心的

466
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,500
是走了从去年到现在

467
00:19:13,500 --> 00:19:16,739
7月份到现在走了半年的一个横盘是吧

468
00:19:16,739 --> 00:19:18,259
大家会觉得特别恶心

469
00:19:18,259 --> 00:19:19,138
那也没事啊

470
00:19:19,138 --> 00:19:21,878
这种情况你有快有慢嘛

471
00:19:21,878 --> 00:19:23,959
谷歌以前的时候不也横盘横了很久

472
00:19:23,959 --> 00:19:26,239
后来起起来的时候也调不回来对吧

473
00:19:26,239 --> 00:19:28,279
台积电也横过很久对吧

474
00:19:28,279 --> 00:19:28,960
也是一样的

475
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:29,599
包括微软

476
00:19:29,599 --> 00:19:30,880
他之前也横了很久

477
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,039
后来跌上涨上去

478
00:19:32,039 --> 00:19:32,759
现在又跌回来

479
00:19:32,759 --> 00:19:35,069
也趴在那横都有这个过程啊

480
00:19:35,069 --> 00:19:37,400
所以呢这个耐心一些呃

481
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:38,079
那么英伟达呢

482
00:19:38,079 --> 00:19:40,799
我说一下他明天的财报的

483
00:19:40,799 --> 00:19:44,039
这个期权市场的这个看法

484
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:48,009
那么截止到本周五最近的期权之后的一个呃

485
00:19:48,009 --> 00:19:48,710
结算日

486
00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:52,869
英伟达市场的压注是在192.5上下

487
00:19:52,869 --> 00:19:55,180
12块八左右波动啊

488
00:19:55,180 --> 00:19:59,750
这个波动呢是不超过7%上下7%

489
00:19:59,750 --> 00:20:01,950
那么我们去简单计算一下

490
00:20:01,950 --> 00:20:06,690
那差不多呢就是在上限是在205啊

491
00:20:06,690 --> 00:20:07,910
205是什么地方呢

492
00:20:07,910 --> 00:20:10,230
就是上方有一个中等压力

493
00:20:10,230 --> 00:20:11,210
前高之前啊

494
00:20:11,210 --> 00:20:13,250
212的前高之前的一个中等压力

495
00:20:13,250 --> 00:20:14,119
这个区间

496
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:15,420
这是他的上限

497
00:20:15,420 --> 00:20:17,160
那么下限在哪里呢

498
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,519
下限差不多是在179块钱

499
00:20:20,519 --> 00:20:23,880
也就是下方这个175~185还没有破位

500
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,388
也没有走路的地方

501
00:20:25,388 --> 00:20:30,549
所以只要英伟达自己不出利空的前瞻

502
00:20:30,549 --> 00:20:32,509
现在啊目前市场的预期

503
00:20:32,509 --> 00:20:35,029
它的业绩在本季度是比较稳定的

504
00:20:35,029 --> 00:20:36,430
而且会有上调啊

505
00:20:36,430 --> 00:20:38,779
就是会有稳定的上调

506
00:20:38,779 --> 00:20:41,940
再加上它的价格呢现在也是合理的

507
00:20:41,940 --> 00:20:42,680
并不高

508
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,309
所以我们合理推断

509
00:20:44,309 --> 00:20:47,750
它不应该出现大幅下跌破位的情况

510
00:20:47,750 --> 00:20:49,829
因为证券市场也并没有做好

511
00:20:49,829 --> 00:20:52,430
这个大幅下跌去保护的准备

512
00:20:52,430 --> 00:20:53,769
压得非常的窄

513
00:20:53,769 --> 00:20:59,259
所以如果业绩是基本符合预期的情况啊

514
00:20:59,259 --> 00:21:00,378
和市场差不多的话

515
00:21:00,378 --> 00:21:02,459
它应该是一个窄幅波动

516
00:21:02,459 --> 00:21:05,199
就是没有惊喜也没有惊吓

517
00:21:05,199 --> 00:21:07,019
那么它的看点是

518
00:21:07,019 --> 00:21:08,838
如果大幅上调

519
00:21:08,838 --> 00:21:12,579
超出了市场现在的已经上调过的预期

520
00:21:12,579 --> 00:21:15,700
他就有可能打穿上面去打到前高

521
00:21:15,700 --> 00:21:17,460
因为前高是212上限

522
00:21:17,460 --> 00:21:19,869
现在压在了205块

523
00:21:19,869 --> 00:21:22,029
所以呢我们看看明天他的前瞻

524
00:21:22,029 --> 00:21:24,390
能不能够重振雄风啊

525
00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:26,420
像他之前一样对吧

526
00:21:26,420 --> 00:21:28,740
每个季度都大幅上调约

527
00:21:28,740 --> 00:21:32,000
这个直接超出华尔街的这个价格

528
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,400
预计的这个上限三十四十%

529
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,160
但是这个相对难一点啊

530
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,119
因为基数太大了

531
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,279
现在不像以前基数小的时候

532
00:21:39,279 --> 00:21:44,539
所以呢呃我们就呃这个对它呃这个充满期待

533
00:21:44,539 --> 00:21:46,680
但是呢降低一些预期呃

534
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,460
如果只是一个窄幅波动呢

535
00:21:48,460 --> 00:21:49,819
大家也别着急啊

536
00:21:49,819 --> 00:21:52,619
这个毕竟现在的价格走势其实总体不错的

537
00:21:52,619 --> 00:21:56,650
最近是连续的这个这小增量的这个阳线

538
00:21:56,650 --> 00:21:57,509
再往上走啊

539
00:21:57,509 --> 00:21:58,890
高位置是越来越高

540
00:21:58,890 --> 00:22:00,349
已经是收到了

541
00:22:00,349 --> 00:22:01,289
今天收到了

542
00:22:01,289 --> 00:22:02,509
你看这个价格

543
00:22:02,509 --> 00:22:06,339
算是从11月到现在已经是几个月了

544
00:22:06,339 --> 00:22:08,539
11呃十212啊

545
00:22:08,539 --> 00:22:11,990
四个月的差不多的一个这个三个多月吧

546
00:22:11,990 --> 00:22:14,369
一个平台的上演对吧

547
00:22:14,369 --> 00:22:16,710
今天收盘的这个价格已经算是收的比较高了

548
00:22:16,710 --> 00:22:18,589
他是做好了充分准备的啊

549
00:22:18,589 --> 00:22:22,619
就看明天财报里面的信息给不给力啊

550
00:22:22,619 --> 00:22:23,460
好呃

551
00:22:23,460 --> 00:22:24,180
当然财报之后

552
00:22:24,180 --> 00:22:25,220
我们还是要提醒一下

553
00:22:25,220 --> 00:22:27,420
财报之后的这个市场涨跌啊

554
00:22:27,420 --> 00:22:29,640
它它并不是一个确定的事情啊

555
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,440
不是说财报好就一定大涨

556
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,249
财报坏就一定大跌呃

557
00:22:33,249 --> 00:22:36,209
所以呢这里边根据历史统计呢是一个五五开啊

558
00:22:36,209 --> 00:22:38,608
所以呢我的一直的看法是

559
00:22:38,608 --> 00:22:40,108
大家最好不要赌财报

560
00:22:40,108 --> 00:22:44,210
因为赌财报其实长期下来的胜率不高

561
00:22:44,450 --> 00:22:47,289
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

562
00:22:47,289 --> 00:22:49,130
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

563
00:22:49,130 --> 00:22:52,299
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发

564
00:22:52,299 --> 00:22:53,019
谢谢大家

565
00:22:53,019 --> 00:22:54,140
那我们今天到这儿啊

566
00:22:54,140 --> 00:22:57,799
咱们就明天英伟达财报之后不见不散

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