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大家好
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欢迎回来到南硕美股
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今天是5月7号
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周四
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美股三大股指从历史高位回落
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小幅收跌
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科技股表现分化
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半导体
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光通信存储
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数据中心等热门板块全线回调
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AI软件应用的走强
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资金高低切换
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在连续大涨之后
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部分资金也开始恐高了
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涌入英伟达等科技巨头避险
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投资者关注美国与伊朗潜在和平协议的最新进展
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盘前的时候
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有媒体报道称
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美国正在努力缓和以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击
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为维持停火并进入第二阶段谈判做准备
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美伊双方已经就霍尔木兹海峡逐步重新开放达成了共识
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局势即将迎来突破性的进展
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伊朗将允许滞留船只离开嗯
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革命卫队呢已经指定了两条航道供船只通行
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而一切都是好消息
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因此股指在早盘时间就继续走高
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但是随后伊朗国家电视台报道称
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美国必须先支付战争赔款
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霍尔木兹海峡才能够重新开放
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另外呢伊朗官方还发布了新的通行要求
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也规定船只必须向新成立的波斯湾海峡管理局提交详细信息啊
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才可以获得这个通行许可
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而且还得交钱哈
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这个举动呢正式确立了伊朗对这个海峡的控制权啊
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这一份名为船舶信息申报的文件
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就是由伊朗新成立的波斯湾海峡管理局发布的通行申请表
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伊朗议会国家安全官员还称
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川普关于会移除伊朗400kg油的说法呢
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是虚张声势和彻头彻尾的谎言
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没有任何油离开伊朗
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于是股指又应声下跌
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但是跌的也不多
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因为市场仍在等待进一步的消息
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而且在伊朗与川普之间
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华尔街当然选择听川普的
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只要双方的确有在谈判
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那川普就没有说谎
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至于谈不谈得成
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那又是另外一回事
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油价呢连续两天拉出了长下影线
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原油未平仓合约量跌到了8月以来的最低水平
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原因是交易员们因为霍尔木兹海峡封锁
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导致这个市场高度波动而撤离持有
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市场流动性急剧下降
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就没什么人去交易了
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法巴银行策略师呢
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他说了句真话
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他表示
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原有市场已经变得几乎无法交易了
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那当然了
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游市现在全都是内幕交易在里面赚大钱
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没有内幕交易的人冲进去
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那都是送钱送人头的
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比如在昨天
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阿克修斯新闻网站曝出
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油市就出现了异动
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根据道琼斯市场数据
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当时有一位神秘交易员大手笔买入了近1万张原有空头合约
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名义价值高达9.2亿美元哈
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在阿克西斯消息发布后不久
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油价暴跌
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这一笔交易瞬间就盈利了1.25亿美元
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这一位神秘交易员呢随即就美滋滋的止盈离场
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伊朗官媒亲自下场
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这个称阿克修斯记者巴拉克拉维德多次就伊朗战事发布假消息
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连同他在美国政府内部的朋友们呃
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以操纵市场获利
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九发大财
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有小道消息说
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公开的身份呢是以川普公关团队成员身份啊
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呃做新闻工作
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操纵石油期货
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但巴拉克拉维德他否认了有关于白宫内部人士串通牟利的指控
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所以还是那句话
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原有市场看看就好了哈
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那个是大鳄鱼们厮杀的地方
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小鱼小虾米就别凑热闹了
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QQ今天在这个月度和年度阻力700美元
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预祝回落
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日K还没有回踩5日均线哈
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还有一段距离
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虽然美股呢正处于AI盈利散休的周期
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有基本面的支撑
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中产期仍有上涨空间
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今年年底肯定会比现在这个位置更高
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但是技术面上短线已经具备了阶段性过热和回调的条件
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标普500指数日内最高拉到7385点之后回落
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距离美银所说的这个阶段性顶部7377点呢只相差了八个点
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也许这一次真的让美银给蒙对了嗯
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市场可能会在下周二CPI与PPI数据公布之前哈
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先冷静下来
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自3月低点以来
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这一轮历史级别的反攻行情
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将投资者情绪呢推向了彭博策略十分编制的一项量化模型
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所显示的狂热区域哈
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这并不意味着崩盘立即到来
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因为这种背景通常与后续的进一步上涨同时出现
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只是涨幅会更温和温和
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上涨过后呢
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往往就会迎来一段调整时期了
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根据模型
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在2012年到2023年期间
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在市场情绪达到类似的狂热水平后的三个月内
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罗素3000指数平均回报率为2.9%
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就是三个月后哈
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美股还是入的正收益的
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在这些时期
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大盘股的表现往往会更好嗯
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标普500指数跑赢小盘股
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罗素2000指数约178个基点
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换句话来说
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接下来三个月又轮到大科技来表演了
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中小盘股前面疯涨
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现在要先休息一段时间
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如果没有英伟达直成者
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可能会跌更多
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最近这个废板走势实在太疯狂了
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资金扎堆抢购半导体股票
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就卖房卖车
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卖老婆
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卖儿子
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全都这个呃
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去炒半导体了哈
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周度ISSI都飙到1999年以来最高水平了
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是时候改回调了
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不然的话别说空头早就死绝了
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多头都快拿不住了
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好不好
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个股方面
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arm的股价呢跌超10%
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业绩与下个季度的营收指引都略高于市场预期
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表面上看财报并不差哈
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但是管理层在电话会议上提到新的CPU卡
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那是面临供应链与成本端的不确定性呃
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市场于是迅速就把关注点从新产品打开增量空间
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切换到了新业务
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执行面临难度和盈利质量上
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对于arm这类前期涨幅较大
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估值本来就不低的股票而言
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执行层面任何的这一个推迟疑虑哈
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往往比单季数据更容易引发短线回吐呃
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这个股价日线有点像走出双头形态
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得突破周三这一根日K的高点才能够解除风险
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继续打开上行空间
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受业绩利好刺激
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AI应用软件股呢今天集体走强
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IGB跳空上涨
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触及上方半年线阻力唉
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所谓的业绩好那只是借口了嗯
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之前业绩企业好之后不见他涨
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就纯粹今天半导体回调嘛
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资金就找一个还处于低位的软件板块来这个呃避险
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顺便拉一下是吧
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云安全公司对他dog第一季度业绩超出华尔街预期
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营收10.06亿美元
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同比增长32%
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调整后每股收益60美分
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都好于预期
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季度末有4550名客户每年经产性收入至少为10万美元
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比去年增加了21%
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公司持有现金
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现金等价物48亿美元
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而且上调了2026财年业绩指引
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股价今天暴涨之后
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已经重返历史高位水平了
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apple v股价日内低开高走
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收涨6.4%
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Q1营收同比增长59%
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净利润12亿美元
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同比增长109%
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第二季度指引也好
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于是残余期
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所以这前下跌简直毫无理由哈
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要么就是单纯谓的诱空
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要么就是这个后面从半导体流出来的资金往软件这边跑
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所以又把股价给拉起来了
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现在股价需要突破
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并且站稳五百四三美元这条颈线之上
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才能够解除日线前面这个M双顶形态
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半年线与年线目前已来到这条仅线附近
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所以如果能突破这个水平
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对于修复市场信心呢有极大的帮助嗯
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FTNT股价暴涨了20%
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公司Q1营收同比增长20%
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每股收益同比增长41%
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达到82美分
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自有现金流创纪录
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达到了10.1亿美元
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Q2指引也乐观
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股价跳空高开后
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同样回到了去年年初高位附近
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这些软件股此前一直遭受市场无情的打压
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如今借着财报
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尤其是借着半导体回调哈
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这修复的力度也是很强
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北美外卖平台的大事
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股价今天呢高开低走
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尾盘收窄到2%嗯
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公司QE业绩超预期
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营收同比增长33%
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但是净利润下滑了5%到1.84亿美元
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公司此前因为油价飙升
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推出面向美国司机的燃油补贴计划
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导致相关成本压力一度超过了5000万美元
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二季度marketplace总订单额指引也高于预期
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显示配送需求和平台活跃度仍有任性
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就是消费者们还是呃愿意点外卖吃的哈
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这个并没有因为嗯通胀物价上升
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这减少这方面的支出
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昨天UBER的财报中呢也反映呃这个北美外卖业务的强劲
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如果二季度油价能快速回落的话
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公司成本下降有利于盈利预期的修正
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股价目前仍然较去年10月高点285美元回撤了约42%
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FLNC1季度业绩频频净亏损
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从上年同期的3100万美元收窄到2090万美元
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公司表示已经与两家超大规模数据中心运营商签署了供应协议
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股价呢飙升了近40%
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夸张了
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这个和昨天咱们视频里提到的那一家HUT的情况
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几乎可以说是一模一样哈
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都是同样的炒作逻辑
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嗯就是嗯签订了某个长期租赁协议
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或者是某个供应协议
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股价立即就原地起飞
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尽管前景吹得天花乱坠
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但是有个点奇怪
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就是公司还重申了他的全年业绩预期并没有上调哦
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如果真的那么大的订单
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那么好的前景是吧
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为什么不上调全年业绩直营呢
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呃但是无脑炒作的话
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不用管那么多啦
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反正干一炮就走
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谁有兴趣了解那么多啊是吧
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的话
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谁想知道他父母做什么的
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这这个年收入多少
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公司应该赶紧改行去做燃料电池嘛
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学隔壁的那个BE
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那就等于跳上AI电力财富列车了
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锂矿巨头美国雅宝股价指去年6月以来几乎每个月上涨
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之前由于欧美电动车需求下滑
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锂行业呢遭遇了资本寒冬
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股价从回撤85%哇
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这跌到谷底50美元了
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现在已经回到了200美元附近
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公司一季度业绩远超市场
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与其营收增长了33%
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实现净利润3.19亿美元
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而去年同七只有4930万美元
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数据中心能源需求已经成为锂矿行业的新增长了
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公司在一季度偿还了13亿美元债务
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显著降低了利息成本
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提高了财务灵活性
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一季度还产生了自有现金流约2.48亿美元
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这表明公司在利润回升的同时呢
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保持了健康的现金创造能力
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在经历了前面多年供应过剩和价格低迷的至暗时刻之后啊
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离行业算是步入了新一轮景气周期
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先卖后服公司see z l1季度业绩超预期
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营收增长29%
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调整后每股收益1.43美元
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大幅高于预期的19美分
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公司还上调了2026财年指引
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股价盘出一度暴涨30%
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而盘中回落
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尾盘涨幅呢收窄了一半
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日K跳空高开后收出这么一根啊
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大失自新哈
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虽然股价较去年7月高点回撤了近半
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但是呢我们看年线走势
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股价连续3年上涨
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今年年初以来还落得57%的涨幅呢
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这要元甩另一家先买后付龙头CLARA1条街
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克莱纳自去年9月上市以来
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股价就开启了这个暴利级泡沫之路呀
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跌跌不休哈
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自高点回撤了约80%
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早就已经跌破了它的发行价40美元了
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00:13:26,059 --> 00:13:29,340
所以说欧洲公司在美股市场不受待见
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00:13:29,340 --> 00:13:30,820
UPST的同行
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以色列AI信贷公司呃
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pg y股价高开触及半年线阻力后回落
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但是仍收涨4.5%
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二
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公司一季度营收3.18亿美元
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同比虽然增长了9.6%
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但是不及预期的3.2亿美元
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每股收益73美分
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同比增长了5.8%
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大幅超过预期的20美分
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前瞻指引好坏参半
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公司预计二季度收入将会在3.45亿到3.65亿美元之间
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不及预期的3.675亿
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00:14:04,809 --> 00:14:09,629
嗯预计全年总收入将会在14亿到15.8亿美元之间
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00:14:09,629 --> 00:14:13,019
这中间值要略高于预期的14.8亿
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00:14:16,860 --> 00:14:19,460
既然是一支以色列概念股
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00:14:19,460 --> 00:14:24,700
那就意味着它的股价砸低拉高会非常的强烈
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属于妖股行列哈
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在美联储降息周期中呢
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00:14:28,788 --> 00:14:32,000
这支股票预计会得到热钱的炒作
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公司基本面比那个UPT要好一些
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因为这个公司采用的是预先锁定资金的资产证券化模式
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2026年初至今
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00:14:42,929 --> 00:14:46,750
他频繁发行高品级的abs债务
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资金端呢很充裕
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而且基本不占用它自身的资产负债表
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属于轻资产模式哈
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UPST历史上
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由于资金渠道就是他那些银行合作伙伴们在加息周期中抽离了
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所以不得不将大量的贷款被迫留在UPST自己的资产负债表上
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所以就承担了信用风险呃
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因此用PSD的基本面在当前的这个宏观周期下呢
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要显著的弱于呃这个PGY电力股由vs st股价日内冲高回落
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从涨6%变成转跌了
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00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,120
日K收出一根带有长长上影线的光脚阴线
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00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:27,980
日内抛压沉重哈
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00:15:27,980 --> 00:15:29,919
公司一季度扭亏为盈
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00:15:29,919 --> 00:15:32,568
实现净利润10.3亿美元
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00:15:32,568 --> 00:15:36,068
一年前为净亏损2.68亿美元
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00:15:36,068 --> 00:15:40,259
而且大幅好于市场预期的4.34亿美元
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营收56.4亿美元
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超预期哈
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同比大增43%
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美国的电力需求正创下历史新高
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这促使公用事业公司加大在发电和输电基础设施方面的投资
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00:15:54,220 --> 00:15:56,860
但是美国政府不让电费涨价呀
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00:15:56,860 --> 00:15:58,580
而且现在利率高企
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00:15:58,580 --> 00:16:01,309
也抑制这些公用事业电力股的估值
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00:16:01,309 --> 00:16:04,990
不像那些不用靠电网的其他电力股哈
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比如涡轮机龙头机EV啦
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或者燃料电池的腰果BE啦等等
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他们就不用受这个政府的鸟企业
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不用管利率那么多哈
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00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:17,019
只看需求强不强就行了
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所以公用事业股呢
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00:16:18,870 --> 00:16:21,110
而最近就走得不是很好
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一直承压盘后
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Conn base coal wave
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00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:27,129
还有rocket lab公布了财报
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股价呢涨跌不一啊
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00:16:29,169 --> 00:16:30,830
咱们明天再细说那行
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咱们明天见拜拜