高通雪耻，但我接下来看好的股是。【2026-05-07】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年5月7号星期四

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大盘今天小幅回调

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跌幅0.38%小阴线

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连5日线都没有碰到

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可以判定为强势整理

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长期趋势不变

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那么股市是否有一种高处不胜寒的感觉呢

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有是有

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但过去这么多年

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这种感觉从来没有停止过

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又从来不是最高处

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因此美股在慢牛上涨途中就不轻易看空

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踩顶是一件胜算极低

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特别无聊的事

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纳斯达克指数今天突破了2万6000点

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在突破2万5000点之后

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轻而易举的又拿下1000点小阴线

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并没有杀伤力

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因为什么位也没有破

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就是一天的正常调整而已

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纳指并不是看空

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而是担心长太快了

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没有后劲

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高通今天发力

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盘中上涨超过15%

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简直像是中了大奖

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然后我就在微信VIP群里面发了个高通报了

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结果炸出来百万哥的持仓贴图

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根据贴图

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他持有8000股

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高通盈利40万

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看来是低估了百万哥啊

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小小一个高通就能买100多万

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此人可能有上亿的身家

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我的观众啊真的是藏龙卧虎啊

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我这20万的账户都不好意思晒了

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那怎么办呢

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还是得硬着头皮晒IPCR公开账户截图

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净值是21.7万

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今天增长了3534

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今天这个截图全部持股都是绿的

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高通和circle也实现了盈利

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然后全部就都是盈利的仓位了

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我是越盈利越不想卖出

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亏损的时候倒是有点坐立不安

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这一点和很多人相反啊

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大家都是有盈利

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就害怕失去风险

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厌恶损失时却风险偏好愿意冒更大的风险

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甚至是浮亏继续加仓

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这是心理学上的一种效应

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好像是普遍情况叫前景理论

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那我是反着来的

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亏的时候风险厌恶

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涨的时候愿意冒险

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我问了GEMINI

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他说这是一种职业投资者心态

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那我知道谷歌为什么大涨了

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因为专门乃会拍马屁呀

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最近我的粉丝突破了30万

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完全值得做一期cuda name来解答观众提问

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但我在想咱们这个视频内容有时效性

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不如每期节目回答几个典型的问题

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化整为零

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实质重于形式

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比较实在啊

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最近观众问的比较多的是热门的股

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这很符合市场的心理

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股市就是这样

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哪里热门哪里问题就比较多

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最热门的当然是敌王闪迪

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问题来了

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请问闪迪还能拿吗

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闪迪SNDK强劲拉升后略有回调

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但人气还非常热

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预计短线仍有机会

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成交量比前几天小上涨

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放量而下跌

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缩量是好的现象

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财报后没有暴雷

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基本面近期仍然相当好

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云巨头开出7250亿美元资本开支

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半导体全线上涨

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存储供不应求

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仍将享受AI基建红利

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短线活跃有一定机会

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长线就不确定了

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有观众问高通会不会是被动上涨的

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大家在买费城半导体指数的时候

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被动买进去的啦

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那肯定是有被动补涨成分

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而且可能是主要原因之一

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费半30只成份股

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个个牛股趴地上的高通也就相对便宜

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受板块热度影响而补涨

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但是高通每一次大涨有一个问题

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就是容易形成天线

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今天又是冲高回落

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古巴里说这是个天线宝宝

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之前在10月27号也出现过这样的天线

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后来行情就一蹶不振

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半导体板块30只股票

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高通算是最难搞的一支啦

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嗯有观众评论说

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SUNY是完全不想做热点啊

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存储观模块啥的

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我主要是做长线投资

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买入后咬死不动

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这种做法对美股特别有效

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历史数据也完全证明了这一点

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在老本相对安全的前提下

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咱们要做一些比较有把握的投资

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而不是冒险投机

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分清投资和投机是入市交易的关键一步

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他一字之差

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手法完全两样

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投资要买便宜的好货

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长期持有

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等待花开

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说一点我在日常生活中的体验

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我这两年在搞园艺

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园艺是一项长期主义的爱好

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春天百花盛开时

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花苗往往很贵

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一盆好花可能上百刀

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到了秋天

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人群逐渐散去

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花也谢了

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多年生的花苗看起来凋敝

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没精打采的商家大清仓要关门

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一盆花苗可能几块钱就可以拿走

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我买回来后小心照顾

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种到地里边儿

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等加拿大冬天的严寒过去

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春暖花开时

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几块钱的花重新盛开

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价值又是上百刀

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关键这些花苗在我的照顾下

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将大概率存活下来

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越长越大

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成为花园里的风景

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长期投资就要买便宜货

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就像是我秋天买的苗

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到春天花会重开

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当然不是图便宜

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去买一盆重病的过冬就死掉的苗

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也不是在旺季花高价买来却不好好去种的花苗

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投机就不一样啦

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投机就好比买一束鲜花送给情人

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目的是一时拥有

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并非长长久久啊

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情人节花都特别贵

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还得买来送

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因为这时不送

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更待何时

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投机呢

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就是找准时机

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果断下手

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轻松拿下

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贵有贵的道理

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股市的投机不是去买便宜货

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便宜往往意味着长期低迷

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持续调整

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痛不欲生啊

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投机就是要买成交量高

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股性活跃

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创新高突破的个股人气旺盛

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击鼓传花

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容易出手

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投资和投机都是正确的做法

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只不过要看个人的匹配度

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首先是个人的风险和收益目标

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如果可以冒险

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收益目标很高

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那应该多投机

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多注意热点

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热点板块和个股容易很快形成大涨趋势

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买入后很快产生浮动盈利

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但是涨得快的股回调的时候有可能幅度也不小

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在震荡中要有更高的风险容忍度

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如果只想赚大的

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却无法接受赔大的

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那可能就要调整一下心态和思路

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如果赚钱要赚大的风险却不想太大

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最好就是价值投资

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买便宜货

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不要去投机追高

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其次是投资周期

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买三天就卖和买3年才卖啊

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完全是两个不同的做法

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就拿闪迪SNDK和西部数据WDC来说吧

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两三年前存储还挺便宜的

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公司的利润是亏的

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那是最近一年才出现存储抢货

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供不应求的

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持股三天就不用去管硬件的周期性

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反正别人拉起来你就倒卖给他

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和基本面关系不大

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持股3年呢就要想3年后是不是还供不应求

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3年会不会变天了

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如果产业环境变了

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这么高的股价

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是不是还能撑得住

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哪些公司是市场的偏见

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3年后市场有可能改变态度

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重新估值的

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抛开投资的周期谈追高或抄底是错误的命题啊

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要先问自己

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我是买三天呢

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还是买3年五年

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如果是三天追热点是最正确的决定

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千万别学博主买什么迪士尼呀

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COSTCO的学股神买什么雪弗龙哈

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如果是头3年啊啊那就一定要研究基本面

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研究行业趋势

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研究估值是低估还是高估

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那回答观众的问题

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我不追存储

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不买光通信

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是因为已经错过的事实

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错过便错过了

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我就问自己一个问题

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买了空间有多大

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能持有3年吗

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这个问题实在困扰

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如果不能持有3年

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我不太可能为了短线收益去投机

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三天我们来看一下西部数据的月K线图

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00:09:30,230 --> 00:09:32,330
每一根K线是一个月

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00:09:32,330 --> 00:09:34,419
连续14个月阳线

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00:09:34,419 --> 00:09:37,860
这意味着存储股已经连涨14个月了

236
00:09:37,860 --> 00:09:39,549
涨幅特别大

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00:09:39,549 --> 00:09:42,070
话说基本面也特别好

238
00:09:42,070 --> 00:09:43,889
市盈率才27倍

239
00:09:43,889 --> 00:09:46,139
比14个月前还低

240
00:09:46,139 --> 00:09:48,539
嗯越长还越便宜了

241
00:09:48,539 --> 00:09:50,740
连续14个月上涨

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00:09:50,740 --> 00:09:53,200
还能有几个这样的K线呢

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00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,799
我们以前在哪些个股上面看到过

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00:09:55,799 --> 00:09:58,360
连续这么多个月没有阴线的呢

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00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,980
我想答案呼之欲出

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00:10:01,259 --> 00:10:04,340
有观众问英特尔要不要止盈

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00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:06,529
涨了这么多啦

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00:10:06,850 --> 00:10:07,830
英特尔啊

249
00:10:07,830 --> 00:10:10,509
闪迪美光都是半导体板块

250
00:10:10,509 --> 00:10:13,159
近期牛股可以归同一类

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00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:15,539
有人问要不要买诶

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00:10:15,539 --> 00:10:17,379
有人问要不要卖

253
00:10:17,379 --> 00:10:20,409
这个和市场的活跃度高度相关

254
00:10:20,409 --> 00:10:22,409
因为这些热门的股票

255
00:10:22,409 --> 00:10:26,000
正好是近期市场上成交金额最大的品类

256
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,620
每天一两百亿美金的交易

257
00:10:28,620 --> 00:10:31,259
说明有这么多钱买入看涨

258
00:10:31,259 --> 00:10:34,200
也有这么多钱是卖出离场

259
00:10:34,399 --> 00:10:36,639
只要成交量的热度还在

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00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:39,200
市场的承接力就比较足够

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00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,139
股价即使短线回落

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00:10:41,139 --> 00:10:45,318
也能迅速拉起成交量和成交金额霸榜

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00:10:45,318 --> 00:10:47,980
意味着股价还将持续活跃

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00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:49,960
哪一天成交量萎缩

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00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:51,419
问的人不多了

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00:10:51,419 --> 00:10:53,980
就可能是离场的信号了

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00:10:54,179 --> 00:10:57,620
英特尔今天有所调整为比是负的

268
00:10:57,620 --> 00:10:59,379
说明量能萎缩

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00:10:59,379 --> 00:11:02,700
后续要关注量能是否持续缩量

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00:11:02,700 --> 00:11:05,690
持续缩量可能就是回调的信号

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00:11:05,690 --> 00:11:07,710
从长线投资的角度

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00:11:07,710 --> 00:11:10,250
我喜欢那些暂时被市场看空

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00:11:10,250 --> 00:11:11,490
股性低迷

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00:11:11,490 --> 00:11:13,440
令人厌恶的个股

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00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,470
最近啊我看好的股是微软

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00:11:16,470 --> 00:11:18,250
虽然软件很差

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00:11:18,250 --> 00:11:20,330
股市正在欺软怕硬

278
00:11:23,309 --> 00:11:25,818
反而显示出了便宜的价值

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00:11:25,818 --> 00:11:27,339
从日K线看

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00:11:27,339 --> 00:11:29,798
最近微软可能要形成头肩底

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00:11:29,798 --> 00:11:31,239
持续大跌后

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00:11:31,239 --> 00:11:34,960
左肩底部右肩已经基本成型

283
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,200
临门一脚只差一个放量突破了

284
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,360
如果能来一个成交量放大的突破上涨

285
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,909
那么头肩底就形成了头肩底

286
00:11:44,909 --> 00:11:47,610
是一个胜率较高的底部反转形态

287
00:11:47,610 --> 00:11:50,230
美股绩优股怎么说来着

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00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:52,490
底部形态大概率是真

289
00:11:52,490 --> 00:11:55,210
头部形态总是被证伪

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00:11:55,210 --> 00:11:57,990
那微软如果能来一个底部形态

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00:11:57,990 --> 00:12:00,870
我认为上涨的概率和突破的成功率

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00:12:00,870 --> 00:12:02,789
将会超过50%

293
00:12:02,789 --> 00:12:04,870
微软的市盈率估值

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00:12:04,870 --> 00:12:07,740
目前正处于近10年来的低水位

295
00:12:07,740 --> 00:12:10,899
虽然股价比10年前涨幅巨大了

296
00:12:10,899 --> 00:12:12,620
但净利润上升

297
00:12:12,620 --> 00:12:14,089
每股收益增加

298
00:12:14,089 --> 00:12:15,769
股价除以每股收益

299
00:12:15,769 --> 00:12:18,980
得到的PEE是10年来比较低的

300
00:12:18,980 --> 00:12:20,039
也就是说

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00:12:20,039 --> 00:12:22,320
如果公司净利润不减少

302
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,269
目前的估值算是便宜区间

303
00:12:25,590 --> 00:12:27,279
如果算20年

304
00:12:27,279 --> 00:12:29,639
目前的估值还是高的

305
00:12:29,639 --> 00:12:33,440
因为十几年前微软的估值有低于十倍以下的

306
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,460
现在20多倍仍然比较高

307
00:12:36,460 --> 00:12:38,620
所以微软是好公司

308
00:12:38,620 --> 00:12:40,600
估值不是绝对便宜

309
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,690
但是是10年来相对便宜的了

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00:12:43,690 --> 00:12:48,029
那么行业呢微软是云服务和软件行业

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00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:49,679
行业是好行业

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00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,139
所以目前的微软符合好行业

313
00:12:53,139 --> 00:12:55,659
好公司相对还行的股价

314
00:12:55,659 --> 00:13:00,009
这些要素在冒一定的投资风险的前提下

315
00:13:00,009 --> 00:13:02,419
微软是不错的价值标的

316
00:13:02,419 --> 00:13:04,200
昨天还有观众问

317
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,480
circle可以进场了吗

318
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:08,340
clarity法案之后

319
00:13:08,340 --> 00:13:11,480
稳定币还是可以想办法支付固定收益的

320
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,320
监管也日渐清晰

321
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,200
对加密行业有利

322
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,360
美元稳定币大势所趋

323
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,840
美元需要在web3时代维持霸权地位

324
00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,539
是国家要推动的重要事项

325
00:13:23,539 --> 00:13:24,440
稳定币

326
00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:28,679
帮助美国政府将货币扑向广泛的亚非拉美地区

327
00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,089
巩固美元铸币税的利益

328
00:13:31,089 --> 00:13:34,568
同时还将美元储备用来买美国债券

329
00:13:34,568 --> 00:13:36,919
解决美国政府发债问题

330
00:13:36,919 --> 00:13:41,679
所以美国政府对稳定币是只有爱没有恨

331
00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,539
传统的swift结算体系老旧落后

332
00:13:45,539 --> 00:13:46,799
费用还昂贵

333
00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:49,578
早晚会被新的结算方式替代

334
00:13:49,578 --> 00:13:53,418
稳定币代表更为先进的全球支付结算体系

335
00:13:53,418 --> 00:13:55,119
前景不可估量

336
00:13:55,119 --> 00:13:57,500
行业大方向没有问题

337
00:13:57,500 --> 00:14:00,200
CRCL不一定会笑到最后

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00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,200
但却是美股唯一能让散户介入稳定币的一只股

339
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:05,950
没有什么选择

340
00:14:05,950 --> 00:14:09,330
短线最大的变量是5月11号财报

341
00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:11,568
到时候会有重大变化

342
00:14:11,568 --> 00:14:13,989
现在买入是在赌财报

343
00:14:13,989 --> 00:14:17,500
预计会有13%左右的波动上

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00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:19,820
看130下看98

345
00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:21,740
短线愿赌服输

346
00:14:21,740 --> 00:14:24,299
长线压住未来好

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00:14:24,299 --> 00:14:26,259
那我们今天的节目就更新到这儿

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00:14:26,259 --> 00:14:27,299
感谢大家的收看

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00:14:27,299 --> 00:14:29,200
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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