BV1U19ZBLEE3 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:03,180 --> 00:00:05,799 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 2 00:00:05,799 --> 00:00:09,019 这是大反转的第二节课 3 00:00:14,779 --> 00:00:17,839 我们来讲一个成功的高点降低的大反转 4 00:00:17,839 --> 00:00:20,059 由哪些组成部分 5 00:00:25,940 --> 00:00:28,460 这里我们看到了上涨趋势的末尾 6 00:00:28,460 --> 00:00:30,739 我没有空间展示左侧的K线 7 00:00:30,739 --> 00:00:31,980 市场开始抛售 8 00:00:31,980 --> 00:00:34,000 在这里尝试反弹 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,799 没有足够多的K线形成大反转 10 00:00:36,799 --> 00:00:38,280 更有可能是小反转 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,380 在更高时间周期的K线图上 12 00:00:40,380 --> 00:00:41,988 可能是一个牛骑 13 00:00:41,988 --> 00:00:44,109 左边的K线没有显示出来 14 00:00:44,109 --> 00:00:45,488 是一个上涨趋势 15 00:00:45,488 --> 00:00:47,709 下跌了大约30根K线之后 16 00:00:47,709 --> 00:00:50,228 上涨趋势尝试恢复 17 00:00:52,119 --> 00:00:55,679 这是对前期上涨趋势高点的测试失败了 18 00:00:57,119 --> 00:01:00,590 价格在前期的一个次要高点附近停滞 19 00:01:00,909 --> 00:01:02,289 形成了一个双顶 20 00:01:02,289 --> 00:01:04,269 并且这个高点低于那个高点 21 00:01:04,269 --> 00:01:07,299 所以这是一个高点降低的双顶大反转 22 00:01:07,299 --> 00:01:09,200 交易者会在这里卖出 23 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,879 或者在这个小双顶下方卖出 24 00:01:12,159 --> 00:01:14,640 或者在这个小阴线的下方做空 25 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,560 他是第二做空入场点 26 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,280 压住市场会有一波下跌 27 00:01:22,700 --> 00:01:24,140 在这种情况下 28 00:01:24,140 --> 00:01:29,459 你也可以说它是三角形三次向上推动123 29 00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:32,719 即使在这一时刻 30 00:01:32,719 --> 00:01:34,620 市场可能仍然处于上涨 31 00:01:34,620 --> 00:01:36,439 上涨趋势有可能会恢复 32 00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:37,980 所以是上涨趋势 33 00:01:37,980 --> 00:01:38,900 然后震荡区 34 00:01:38,900 --> 00:01:40,319 一旦震荡区间持续 35 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:41,620 20或30根K线 36 00:01:41,620 --> 00:01:44,079 就会同时出现做多和做空的机会 37 00:01:44,079 --> 00:01:47,170 50%的概率上涨趋势会恢复 38 00:01:47,170 --> 00:01:50,349 50%的概率会反转成下降趋势 39 00:01:50,349 --> 00:01:53,209 直到这里交易者才得出结论 40 00:01:53,719 --> 00:01:55,680 上涨趋势已经结束 41 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:57,420 下降趋势开始 42 00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:00,579 二根或更多的阴线收盘在低位 43 00:02:00,579 --> 00:02:03,019 市场现在明显是单边下跌 44 00:02:03,019 --> 00:02:05,819 所以大概率还会继续下跌 45 00:02:09,219 --> 00:02:12,539 现在高点和低点都在不断降低 46 00:02:12,819 --> 00:02:14,340 这是下降趋势的第一 47 00:02:14,340 --> 00:02:15,780 空头会在反弹时卖 48 00:02:15,780 --> 00:02:18,009 每次多头想要强势的反弹 49 00:02:18,009 --> 00:02:19,530 空投就会卖出 50 00:02:19,530 --> 00:02:21,250 压住反转会失败 51 00:02:21,250 --> 00:02:25,330 他们不断的卖出卖出卖出 52 00:02:26,900 --> 00:02:28,080 双顶雄奇 53 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:32,699 第二做空第一第二这里有一个小的双顶雄奇 54 00:02:32,699 --> 00:02:35,039 空头会在那个阳线下方卖出 55 00:02:35,039 --> 00:02:37,439 或者更好的是在那个阴线下方买的 56 00:02:37,439 --> 00:02:40,389 大阴线跌破之后反弹了一根小阳线 57 00:02:40,389 --> 00:02:42,469 交易者会在那根K线下方 58 00:02:42,469 --> 00:02:46,008 即第一卖出做空或者在卖线下放在这里 59 00:02:46,008 --> 00:02:47,609 成交订单在这里成交 60 00:02:47,609 --> 00:02:52,659 第二做空第一段上涨反弹尝试向下反转 61 00:02:52,659 --> 00:02:53,800 第二段上涨 62 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,759 第二次尝试向下反转 63 00:02:55,759 --> 00:02:57,759 现在甚至有了第三次反弹 64 00:02:57,759 --> 00:02:58,800 这是D3 65 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:00,520 也就是三推楔形雄起 66 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,560 交易者会在阴线下方卖出 67 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,560 压住下降趋势恢复压住反转不会成功 68 00:03:07,019 --> 00:03:10,739 交易者会在前一根K线的低点下方挂突破 69 00:03:10,739 --> 00:03:12,050 卖单入场 70 00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:15,030 他们看到这根阴线是做空信号 71 00:03:15,030 --> 00:03:17,710 会在它的低点下方挂突破卖单 72 00:03:17,710 --> 00:03:22,189 订单会在这根K线也就是入场K线上成交 73 00:03:24,199 --> 00:03:25,919 左边是上涨趋势 74 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,840 然后抛售了一段时间 75 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,860 从这个低点开始的反弹 76 00:03:29,860 --> 00:03:31,319 只持续了大约四个月 77 00:03:31,319 --> 00:03:32,960 这能成为一个大反转吗 78 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:34,509 不太可能 79 00:03:34,509 --> 00:03:36,550 大反转需要大的结构 80 00:03:36,550 --> 00:03:37,889 只有一段上涨 81 00:03:37,889 --> 00:03:39,389 只有四根K线 82 00:03:39,389 --> 00:03:40,889 显然不够大 83 00:03:40,889 --> 00:03:42,129 只是小反弹 84 00:03:42,129 --> 00:03:43,689 要么进入震荡区间 85 00:03:43,689 --> 00:03:46,169 或者在因为左边是上涨趋势 86 00:03:46,169 --> 00:03:49,409 所以可能变成一个大的牛皮结构 87 00:03:51,199 --> 00:03:54,159 这是欧元兑美元的60分钟K线图 88 00:03:54,159 --> 00:03:56,079 上涨趋势 89 00:03:56,399 --> 00:03:58,778 震荡区间双底牛起 90 00:03:58,778 --> 00:04:00,459 然后多头突破 91 00:04:00,459 --> 00:04:02,530 然后反转下跌 92 00:04:02,530 --> 00:04:05,689 这是一个潜在的高点抬高的大反转机会 93 00:04:06,729 --> 00:04:11,368 高点更高的高点抛售持续了7~8根K线 94 00:04:11,368 --> 00:04:13,649 然后横盘了20根K线 95 00:04:13,649 --> 00:04:15,389 K线数量足够多 96 00:04:15,389 --> 00:04:16,329 足以形成大 97 00:04:16,329 --> 00:04:18,428 然后有一个强势的多头突破 98 00:04:18,428 --> 00:04:19,649 但是他立刻失败 99 00:04:19,649 --> 00:04:21,860 市场迅速的反转下跌 100 00:04:22,180 --> 00:04:24,540 当你看到高点抬高的大反转时 101 00:04:24,540 --> 00:04:26,579 你预期至少有几段下跌 102 00:04:26,579 --> 00:04:30,980 一反弹二这里有很多段下跌 103 00:04:31,379 --> 00:04:33,920 因此在第一段下跌之后 104 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,740 多头尝试恢复上涨趋势 105 00:04:36,939 --> 00:04:38,819 你预期多头会失败 106 00:04:38,819 --> 00:04:41,040 然后变成高点降低的大反转 107 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,819 所以至少还有一段下跌 108 00:04:47,319 --> 00:04:51,149 这根大的反转阴线反转了左边的上涨 109 00:04:51,149 --> 00:04:52,589 这也是一根阴线 110 00:04:52,589 --> 00:04:53,990 几乎是十字星 111 00:04:53,990 --> 00:04:56,269 所以有连续二在某个时刻 112 00:04:56,269 --> 00:04:58,519 四根音交易者会得出结论 113 00:04:58,519 --> 00:04:59,899 要大反转了 114 00:04:59,899 --> 00:05:04,319 不像刚才那里只是变成震荡区间的小反转 115 00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:10,300 大阴线收盘在过去20~30根K线的低点下 116 00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:12,959 并且是第六根连续的阴线 117 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:14,918 有足够良好的背景 118 00:05:14,918 --> 00:05:18,418 潜在的高点抬高的大反转也是楔形顶 119 00:05:18,418 --> 00:05:22,959 123交易者相信市场还会再跌一些 120 00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:24,759 至少再跌一段 121 00:05:24,759 --> 00:05:27,600 这是多头的放弃K线 122 00:05:27,879 --> 00:05:29,879 多头在放弃市场 123 00:05:29,879 --> 00:05:31,480 现在处于单边下跌 124 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,279 下降趋势 125 00:05:34,069 --> 00:05:36,029 又一个更大的放弃 126 00:05:36,029 --> 00:05:39,250 K线跌破了上涨趋势的起涨点 127 00:05:39,250 --> 00:05:42,209 左边是非常强势的上涨波段 128 00:05:42,209 --> 00:05:45,310 多头希望价格能保持在这个低点之上 129 00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:47,029 就算有深度回调 130 00:05:47,029 --> 00:05:48,649 也只是变成震荡区间 131 00:05:48,649 --> 00:05:50,889 然后上涨趋势可以恢复 132 00:05:50,889 --> 00:05:53,689 然而一旦价格跌破这个墙 133 00:05:53,689 --> 00:05:54,769 上涨波段的奇涨 134 00:05:54,769 --> 00:05:56,389 大多数多头都放弃了 135 00:05:56,389 --> 00:05:58,970 可以看到一根非常大的阴线 136 00:05:59,699 --> 00:06:01,560 收盘在那个低点的下方 137 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,040 并且收盘在过去五十六十七十根 138 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,519 多头在放的下方 139 00:06:06,519 --> 00:06:08,319 足够强势的大阴线 140 00:06:08,319 --> 00:06:09,720 足够大的惊喜 141 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,060 至少还会在下跌一反弹之后 142 00:06:12,060 --> 00:06:14,220 至少在下跌一段 143 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,040 这里有三个低点 144 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:21,980 可以画一条趋势线 145 00:06:21,980 --> 00:06:23,420 然后做它的平行线 146 00:06:23,420 --> 00:06:25,360 把平行线拖到这个高点 147 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,579 就可以尽早画出这个下降通道 148 00:06:27,579 --> 00:06:30,928 观察价格碰到那条线的时候会发生什么 149 00:06:30,928 --> 00:06:32,228 反弹失败了 150 00:06:32,228 --> 00:06:33,668 价格快速回落 151 00:06:33,668 --> 00:06:36,490 所以现在很可能处于下降通道 152 00:06:36,490 --> 00:06:39,689 一系列降低的高点和低点 153 00:06:40,470 --> 00:06:41,430 空头压住 154 00:06:41,430 --> 00:06:43,269 每次向上的反转都会失败 155 00:06:44,350 --> 00:06:45,209 变成雄奇 156 00:06:45,209 --> 00:06:47,870 即使这里上涨了那么多K线 157 00:06:48,550 --> 00:06:51,110 连续的大阳线在哪里 158 00:06:51,790 --> 00:06:54,389 像他和他这么大的大阳线在哪里呢 159 00:06:56,029 --> 00:06:59,439 多头的努力还不足以反转下降趋势 160 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,060 所有这些大概率都是小反转 161 00:07:02,060 --> 00:07:04,120 会变成雄奇 162 00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:10,120 每次价格反弹 163 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,019 空头都假设这只是小反转 164 00:07:13,019 --> 00:07:16,040 然后在前一根K线的低点下方卖出 165 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,360 这里有一个阴线 166 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,310 交易者会在它的低点下方一个屁股卖出做空 167 00:07:20,310 --> 00:07:22,610 他们会在那根K线下方迈出 168 00:07:22,610 --> 00:07:25,110 这里有一个更漂亮的阴线 169 00:07:25,550 --> 00:07:28,949 这是多头第二次尝试反转趋势 170 00:07:30,209 --> 00:07:32,249 第二次尝试反转失败 171 00:07:32,249 --> 00:07:34,129 多头放弃 172 00:07:35,410 --> 00:07:37,870 这就是为什么在下降趋势中 173 00:07:37,870 --> 00:07:40,569 第二做空入场点如高胜率的交易 174 00:07:40,569 --> 00:07:42,430 多投两次尝试反转 175 00:07:42,430 --> 00:07:43,649 两次都失败 176 00:07:43,649 --> 00:07:45,509 最终放弃 177 00:07:46,290 --> 00:07:47,889 这里有一个小双顶 178 00:07:47,889 --> 00:07:50,269 以及和这个高点形成了大的双顶 179 00:07:50,269 --> 00:07:52,769 高点略微抬高的双顶 180 00:07:53,399 --> 00:07:55,879 交易者会在那根K线的低点下方卖 181 00:07:55,879 --> 00:07:58,220 或者在这根K线的低点下方卖出 182 00:07:58,220 --> 00:07:59,600 并在这里成交 183 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,879 多头再次尝试向上反转 184 00:08:01,879 --> 00:08:03,879 但E连续三根运线 185 00:08:04,959 --> 00:08:07,279 空头压住多头反转会失败 186 00:08:07,279 --> 00:08:09,980 他们会在前一根K线的低点下方卖出 187 00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:11,319 订单会在这里成交 188 00:08:11,319 --> 00:08:12,939 多头尝试向上突破 189 00:08:12,939 --> 00:08:14,810 但没有足够多的买盘 190 00:08:14,810 --> 00:08:18,769 在E的上方有太多空头在卖出市场反转 191 00:08:18,769 --> 00:08:22,250 下跌横盘小的双顶熊奇 192 00:08:22,250 --> 00:08:25,459 交易者会在前一根K线的低点下方卖出 193 00:08:25,459 --> 00:08:28,420 在前一根K线的低点下方迈出通道上沿 194 00:08:28,420 --> 00:08:29,740 附近的小双顶雄奇 195 00:08:30,899 --> 00:08:32,568 这里也是一样 196 00:08:32,808 --> 00:08:35,729 小双顶还没有碰到通道线 197 00:08:35,729 --> 00:08:37,969 但空投会在每次反转下跌 198 00:08:37,969 --> 00:08:41,448 他们会在这根K线那根K线和这根K线 199 00:08:41,448 --> 00:08:44,129 这根K线跌破那个小K线的低点时 200 00:08:44,129 --> 00:08:46,808 他们的订单就成交了 201 00:08:48,519 --> 00:08:50,639 当你看到一个大反转的机会 202 00:08:50,639 --> 00:08:53,279 40%的概率可以赚到波段利润 203 00:08:53,279 --> 00:08:55,019 价格移动幅度足够大 204 00:08:55,019 --> 00:08:58,179 让你可以在波段中赚到很多钱 205 00:08:58,808 --> 00:09:01,288 然而一旦出现这么大的突破 206 00:09:01,288 --> 00:09:03,009 至少有60%的概率 207 00:09:03,009 --> 00:09:07,349 你可以根据mm目标位赚到波段的利润 208 00:09:07,589 --> 00:09:11,009 比如从第一根突破K线的开盘价 209 00:09:11,009 --> 00:09:14,668 到最后一根突破K线的收盘价往下翻一倍 210 00:09:14,668 --> 00:09:16,529 做MM目标位 211 00:09:16,529 --> 00:09:19,850 看到突破后再做空的胜率更高 212 00:09:21,139 --> 00:09:24,139 这里抓到下跌波段的概率较低 213 00:09:24,139 --> 00:09:25,769 但风险较小 214 00:09:25,769 --> 00:09:27,269 你在这根K线 215 00:09:27,269 --> 00:09:29,769 在那根K线的下方开仓做空 216 00:09:29,769 --> 00:09:31,009 止损放在这里 217 00:09:31,009 --> 00:09:32,529 你冒的风险很小 218 00:09:32,529 --> 00:09:34,929 然而相比于风险 219 00:09:34,929 --> 00:09:36,110 回报是巨大的 220 00:09:36,110 --> 00:09:38,250 就算你的胜率只有40% 221 00:09:38,250 --> 00:09:40,299 你也能赚钱 222 00:09:40,580 --> 00:09:41,759 在突破后 223 00:09:41,759 --> 00:09:43,980 比如你在他的收盘开仓 224 00:09:43,980 --> 00:09:46,539 或者在这里下方卖出你的止损 225 00:09:46,539 --> 00:09:48,899 在这里或这里上方风险更大 226 00:09:48,899 --> 00:09:51,539 然而赚钱的概率也更高了 227 00:09:51,539 --> 00:09:53,039 而且胜率足够高 228 00:09:53,039 --> 00:09:55,360 弥补了较高的风险 229 00:09:59,059 --> 00:10:03,460 在明显突破和市场处于单边下跌之前就做空 230 00:10:05,779 --> 00:10:07,500 拿到波段的概率更低 231 00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:09,899 但是风险也更小 232 00:10:10,950 --> 00:10:12,909 大部分大反转的机会 233 00:10:12,909 --> 00:10:15,389 只有40%的概率能拿到波段 234 00:10:16,590 --> 00:10:19,789 因为你在强势突破之前就入场了 235 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,519 此时市场还没有明显的反转 236 00:10:24,490 --> 00:10:25,950 在突破后入场 237 00:10:25,950 --> 00:10:27,129 在阴线的收盘 238 00:10:27,129 --> 00:10:28,669 在K线下方卖出 239 00:10:28,669 --> 00:10:29,690 在K线下方 240 00:10:29,690 --> 00:10:32,979 市场现在明显是看跌的概率很高 241 00:10:32,979 --> 00:10:34,859 至少会有小的第二段下跌 242 00:10:34,859 --> 00:10:36,578 这里最终是大的 243 00:10:36,578 --> 00:10:39,259 第二段有更高的概率可以赚钱 244 00:10:39,860 --> 00:10:41,700 下方有MM目标位 245 00:10:41,700 --> 00:10:43,299 从趋势的最高点开始 246 00:10:43,299 --> 00:10:44,600 引线有一点重叠 247 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,169 这根K线略微反弹到了那个突破点的上方 248 00:10:48,169 --> 00:10:50,210 这是一个负缺口及实体 249 00:10:50,210 --> 00:10:50,970 既然有缺口 250 00:10:50,970 --> 00:10:51,490 引线碰 251 00:10:51,490 --> 00:10:52,250 就要考虑潜在 252 00:10:52,250 --> 00:10:53,769 但K线的实体部分没有碰 253 00:10:53,769 --> 00:10:55,980 价格跌到了MM目标位的下方 254 00:10:55,980 --> 00:10:58,379 你也可以用这个高点作为MM的起点 255 00:10:59,539 --> 00:11:02,340 从这个高点到缺口往下 256 00:11:02,340 --> 00:11:05,440 在这个位置可以看到有一些空头在那里止盈 257 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,340 或者你可以使用整个下降趋势的最高点 258 00:11:08,340 --> 00:11:10,289 如果价格跌破第一个目标 259 00:11:10,289 --> 00:11:11,850 那就去看第二个目标 260 00:11:11,850 --> 00:11:16,240 第二个目标从最高点到缺口也跌破了 261 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,919 如果你在这里做空双顶熊奇 262 00:11:23,919 --> 00:11:27,240 反弹测试这个突破点左边是非常强的 263 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:28,000 空头突破 264 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:29,379 回测突破点后 265 00:11:29,379 --> 00:11:31,340 下降趋势正在恢复 266 00:11:31,340 --> 00:11:33,220 如果你在这里开仓做空 267 00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:35,679 止损放在这里 268 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,320 因为在下跌之前可能还会有一段反弹 269 00:11:43,379 --> 00:11:49,490 欧元兑美元上涨趋势横盘了20多根K线 270 00:11:49,490 --> 00:11:50,769 有足够的卖压 271 00:11:50,769 --> 00:11:54,278 所以下一次上涨很可能是市场 272 00:11:54,278 --> 00:11:57,639 可能是高点抬高的大反转上涨 273 00:12:01,179 --> 00:12:04,500 如果空投在强势大阴线突破之前就入场 274 00:12:04,500 --> 00:12:06,549 这样做的风险很小 275 00:12:06,549 --> 00:12:10,029 空投在这根K线的低点下方卖出订单 276 00:12:10,029 --> 00:12:11,090 在这里成交 277 00:12:11,090 --> 00:12:14,450 他们在明显进入下降趋势之前做空 278 00:12:14,450 --> 00:12:18,519 你只有40%的概率可以赚到波段的利润 279 00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:21,600 波段利润指的是两段下跌 280 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,360 回报至少是风险的两倍 281 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,590 然而你的风险很小 282 00:12:25,590 --> 00:12:28,710 如果你有40%的时间得到波段利润 283 00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:30,549 遇到这种机会做空 284 00:12:30,549 --> 00:12:33,370 长期而言是可以盈利的 285 00:12:33,370 --> 00:12:37,169 大反转只有40%的概率抓到波段 286 00:12:39,259 --> 00:12:41,379 另外60%的时间里 287 00:12:41,379 --> 00:12:44,299 小赚小亏互相抵消 288 00:12:45,059 --> 00:12:46,899 当你做大反转的时候 289 00:12:46,899 --> 00:12:50,860 你期待的是40%的时候转到大的波段 290 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,559 利润大于等于你承担的风险 291 00:12:57,539 --> 00:12:59,120 相对于风险而言 292 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:00,379 利润是巨大的 293 00:13:01,659 --> 00:13:03,659 大大弥补了概率上的小劣势 294 00:13:03,659 --> 00:13:06,909 注40%并不算很低的概率 295 00:13:06,909 --> 00:13:08,870 如果你想要更高概率的交易 296 00:13:08,870 --> 00:13:11,169 那就耐心等待明显的空头突破 297 00:13:11,169 --> 00:13:14,009 这里第二段下跌很大的大阴线 298 00:13:14,009 --> 00:13:17,450 收盘在上涨波段的起涨点下方 299 00:13:18,309 --> 00:13:20,090 这是一个重要的低点 300 00:13:20,090 --> 00:13:22,909 而大阴线收在那个重要的低点之下 301 00:13:22,909 --> 00:13:25,818 这大概率是一个测量型缺口 302 00:13:25,818 --> 00:13:28,659 价格会下跌到某个mm在这里 303 00:13:28,659 --> 00:13:30,559 这里或这里开仓做空 304 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:31,919 有更高的胜率 305 00:13:31,919 --> 00:13:33,419 如果你在这里做空 306 00:13:33,419 --> 00:13:35,779 你的止损在你的风险更大了 307 00:13:35,779 --> 00:13:37,980 但胜率也更高了 308 00:13:38,899 --> 00:13:40,820 你在做一笔高胜率交易 309 00:13:40,820 --> 00:13:44,179 通常伴随的代价是盈亏比变差了 310 00:13:44,379 --> 00:13:46,779 这里你在做一笔低胜率的交易 311 00:13:46,779 --> 00:13:48,980 通常伴随着非常好的盈亏比 312 00:13:49,980 --> 00:13:52,379 小风险大回报 313 00:13:52,649 --> 00:13:54,830 两种方法都是可以盈利的 314 00:13:54,830 --> 00:13:57,570 前者低风险低概率的交易 315 00:13:57,570 --> 00:13:58,909 后者在这里 316 00:13:58,909 --> 00:14:03,490 这里这里这里或这里入场更高的胜率 317 00:14:03,490 --> 00:14:04,490 可以赚到钱 318 00:14:04,490 --> 00:14:07,169 但但止损通常更远 319 00:14:07,519 --> 00:14:09,240 如果你在这里做空 320 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,840 你的止损在最近一个重要高点的上方 321 00:14:13,490 --> 00:14:15,289 它是一个重要的高点 322 00:14:15,289 --> 00:14:17,230 因为后面有强势的大阴线 323 00:14:17,230 --> 00:14:18,889 创了新低 324 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,179 当你看到这么强势的突破时 325 00:14:23,179 --> 00:14:26,720 最低的初始目标从第一根突破K线的开盘价 326 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,159 到最后一根突破K线的收盘价 327 00:14:29,159 --> 00:14:31,279 这里是单独一根K线组成的 328 00:14:31,279 --> 00:14:33,440 那里就是最起码的初始目标位 329 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,899 可以看到在那个价格有一些止盈 330 00:14:37,690 --> 00:14:39,389 价格突破了这个低点 331 00:14:39,389 --> 00:14:43,129 然后反弹反弹无法回到那个低点的上方 332 00:14:43,129 --> 00:14:46,169 所以这大概率是一个测量型缺口 333 00:14:46,169 --> 00:14:49,809 也就是从趋势的起点到缺口的中间 334 00:14:49,809 --> 00:14:52,370 或者到这个低点往下翻译 335 00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:54,029 被做MM目标位 336 00:14:54,029 --> 00:14:56,389 在那里会有一些空头止盈 337 00:14:56,389 --> 00:14:59,190 如果你的利润已经达到风险的两倍 338 00:14:59,190 --> 00:15:02,350 在那里只盈至少一部分仓位是合理的 339 00:15:02,350 --> 00:15:03,649 如果你在这里卖出 340 00:15:03,649 --> 00:15:06,230 你的实际风险只有这么一小段 341 00:15:06,230 --> 00:15:07,850 实际风险非常小 342 00:15:07,850 --> 00:15:09,580 所以两倍风险在这里 343 00:15:09,580 --> 00:15:12,019 对于这么大的一个反转结构来说 344 00:15:12,019 --> 00:15:13,740 这么一点利润太小了 345 00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:16,669 所以我不会在两倍实际风险的地方止盈 346 00:15:16,669 --> 00:15:18,350 我会寻找其他目标 347 00:15:18,350 --> 00:15:19,370 比如这里 348 00:15:19,370 --> 00:15:22,318 你可以看到很多交易者在这里开始止盈 349 00:15:22,318 --> 00:15:26,009 市场在MM目标位附近开始横盘 350 00:15:26,009 --> 00:15:28,350 这主要是空投止盈造成的 351 00:15:28,350 --> 00:15:30,230 多头无法反转市场 352 00:15:30,230 --> 00:15:32,889 所以空投再次卖出 353 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,659 如果你在某个地方做空了 354 00:15:36,659 --> 00:15:38,960 在他的收盘或者在这根K线 355 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,200 这根K线下方是第二做空点 356 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:45,259 小双顶突破回撤回测这个突破点 357 00:15:45,259 --> 00:15:46,778 不管你在哪里开仓做 358 00:15:46,778 --> 00:15:49,658 你的初始止损要放在最近的重要高点上方 359 00:15:49,658 --> 00:15:52,679 大阴线强势跌破创新低 360 00:15:52,679 --> 00:15:55,559 所以它是重要的高点 361 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,700 大反转也许是最适合新手的做法 362 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:08,580 注从波段交易高手交易员而言 363 00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:10,110 也是很好的机会 364 00:16:10,110 --> 00:16:11,669 因为时间站在你这一边 365 00:16:11,669 --> 00:16:15,149 你通常可以在反转发生之前就预见到他 366 00:16:15,340 --> 00:16:16,740 这给了你充分的时间 367 00:16:16,740 --> 00:16:18,759 决定是否要进行交易 368 00:16:18,759 --> 00:16:19,940 上涨趋势 369 00:16:19,940 --> 00:16:22,429 市场横盘了很多根K线 370 00:16:22,429 --> 00:16:24,789 这可能是末端牛起 371 00:16:24,789 --> 00:16:28,289 另外这是第三次向上推动一 372 00:16:28,289 --> 00:16:30,029 所以除了末端牛起之外 373 00:16:30,029 --> 00:16:32,089 这也是一个楔形顶 374 00:16:32,249 --> 00:16:36,909 交易者预见到了他们会在反转下跌时卖出做空 375 00:16:37,269 --> 00:16:38,309 强势的空头 376 00:16:38,309 --> 00:16:40,389 突破之后出现了更低的高点 377 00:16:40,389 --> 00:16:41,960 大概率会继续下跌 378 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,019 当你看到这个空头突破时 379 00:16:44,019 --> 00:16:45,720 交易者希望有反弹 380 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,120 期待反弹失败变成雄奇 381 00:16:49,639 --> 00:16:52,480 他们会在前一根K线的低点下方卖出 382 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,179 尤其是在一根阴线的低点下方卖出 383 00:16:55,179 --> 00:16:56,840 卖单会在这里成交 384 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:57,960 在这里成交 385 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,220 或者在这里成交 386 00:17:02,519 --> 00:17:06,440 大反转交易的管理通常比其他交易也更简单 387 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,140 这是一个波段交易 388 00:17:08,140 --> 00:17:09,720 所以你不需要做很多 389 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:11,730 你只需要依赖初始止损 390 00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:13,490 如果你在这里做空 391 00:17:13,490 --> 00:17:16,190 你的止损在最近的重要高点上方 392 00:17:16,190 --> 00:17:17,549 你只需要持有 393 00:17:17,549 --> 00:17:20,049 直到出现明显的反转 394 00:17:21,700 --> 00:17:24,700 或者直到利润达到两倍风险 395 00:17:26,759 --> 00:17:29,519 或者一直持有到mm目标位 396 00:17:29,519 --> 00:17:32,160 然后你只赢一部分 397 00:17:33,059 --> 00:17:34,660 数学期望非常好 398 00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:37,539 因为利润至少是风险的两倍 399 00:17:38,099 --> 00:17:41,059 而且经常会出现这样的机会 400 00:17:41,730 --> 00:17:43,349 如果是日内交易 401 00:17:43,349 --> 00:17:47,289 通常每天至少有一个大反转机会 402 00:17:48,299 --> 00:17:51,109 这是60分钟K线图 403 00:17:51,670 --> 00:17:54,170 在这里那一天的交易时段 404 00:17:54,170 --> 00:17:57,109 所以在这里止盈是合理的 405 00:17:57,579 --> 00:18:01,099 另外这里你的利润已经达到初始风险的五倍 406 00:18:02,460 --> 00:18:05,109 初始风险的345倍 407 00:18:05,109 --> 00:18:07,190 实际风险的十几20 408 00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:09,679 如果你在那根K线的收盘开仓做空 409 00:18:09,679 --> 00:18:12,479 你的实际风险只是这根K线上方一个片 410 00:18:12,479 --> 00:18:14,459 而回报是那个风险的5~10倍 411 00:18:14,459 --> 00:18:16,159 太赞了 412 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,559 在某些时候你必须考虑是否止盈一部分 413 00:18:23,559 --> 00:18:25,929 这是60分钟K线图 414 00:18:26,209 --> 00:18:28,900 市场出现了连续的抛售高潮 415 00:18:28,900 --> 00:18:31,019 现在市场处于通道的下沿 416 00:18:31,019 --> 00:18:33,039 我没有画出通道线注 417 00:18:33,039 --> 00:18:34,940 这里出现了一根反倒3分钟 418 00:18:34,940 --> 00:18:35,299 在这里 419 00:18:35,299 --> 00:18:37,888 只因一部分是合理的做法 420 00:18:37,888 --> 00:18:40,169 如果这是一个5分钟K线图 421 00:18:40,169 --> 00:18:45,729 而且即将收盘在那个阳线上方离场是合理的 422 00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:52,980 我说大反转有40%的成功机会 423 00:18:54,559 --> 00:18:58,059 这意味着60%的时间里不会成功 424 00:18:58,059 --> 00:19:02,089 然而很多时候你会遇到多个机会 425 00:19:02,329 --> 00:19:04,930 上涨趋势空头突破 426 00:19:04,930 --> 00:19:06,750 这里是上涨趋势线 427 00:19:06,750 --> 00:19:08,319 趋势线被跌破了 428 00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:11,059 交易者想要在反转时卖出做空 429 00:19:11,059 --> 00:19:15,200 五根连续的阳线不是一个好的做空机会 430 00:19:15,829 --> 00:19:19,390 但现在有一根空投运线也是第二做空信号 431 00:19:19,390 --> 00:19:22,119 这里做空的胜率会更高一些 432 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:23,680 大反转没有成功 433 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:24,559 又涨回来了 434 00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:26,859 然而高点降低了 435 00:19:26,859 --> 00:19:32,880 在前期的高点下方有一个双顶尝试向上突破 436 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,579 但是失败下跌 437 00:19:34,579 --> 00:19:35,740 所以有小双顶 438 00:19:35,740 --> 00:19:37,388 也有一个较大的双顶 439 00:19:37,388 --> 00:19:39,588 空投会在那个阴线下方卖出 440 00:19:39,588 --> 00:19:40,989 再次尝试做空 441 00:19:40,989 --> 00:19:44,579 做大反转又涨回来了 442 00:19:44,579 --> 00:19:46,640 大反转做空再次失败 443 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,960 空投可能会在这里离场 444 00:19:49,779 --> 00:19:51,619 当价格快速涨到这里 445 00:19:51,619 --> 00:19:54,720 很多空投在初始入场价附近放弃 446 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,319 有一些空投会把止损移动到初始 447 00:19:57,319 --> 00:19:59,420 空投两次尝试击打平离场 448 00:19:59,420 --> 00:20:00,700 变成了楔形顶 449 00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:01,680 一二 450 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,039 还有更大的楔形顶 451 00:20:03,039 --> 00:20:05,299 123 452 00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:07,980 这个高点稍微低于那个高点 453 00:20:07,980 --> 00:20:09,259 再次反转下跌 454 00:20:10,380 --> 00:20:13,539 这又是一次高点降低的大反转机会 455 00:20:13,539 --> 00:20:16,700 这一次终于是一笔好的波段交易 456 00:20:16,700 --> 00:20:19,630 第一段下跌可能还有第二段 457 00:20:19,630 --> 00:20:21,369 也许这是第二段 458 00:20:21,369 --> 00:20:22,390 可以在这里止盈 459 00:20:22,390 --> 00:20:24,190 也可以继续持有 460 00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:28,039 波段交易的概率 461 00:20:28,039 --> 00:20:29,859 即使是一个很好的机会 462 00:20:29,859 --> 00:20:31,519 也只有大约40% 463 00:20:31,519 --> 00:20:33,660 60%都是小亏小赚 464 00:20:33,660 --> 00:20:35,529 他们相互抵消 465 00:20:36,890 --> 00:20:38,730 但40%的时间 466 00:20:38,730 --> 00:20:41,529 你的利润超过你风险的两倍 467 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,859 这里利润是实际风险的很多倍 468 00:20:45,859 --> 00:20:48,799 如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出 469 00:20:48,799 --> 00:20:52,230 卖单的止损在非常小的初始风险 470 00:20:52,470 --> 00:20:54,910 如果你在这根K线下方卖出 471 00:20:54,910 --> 00:20:56,450 实际风险更小 472 00:20:56,450 --> 00:20:57,390 是非常小的 473 00:20:57,390 --> 00:21:00,309 而利润是实际风险的好多倍 474 00:21:01,589 --> 00:21:03,150 非常好的数学期望 475 00:21:05,470 --> 00:21:07,519 如果你在这里开仓做空 476 00:21:07,519 --> 00:21:10,019 你可以在这个大阳线的上方离场 477 00:21:10,019 --> 00:21:11,200 低点抬高 478 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:12,000 反转上涨 479 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,630 如果你在这里开仓做空 480 00:21:13,630 --> 00:21:14,470 你可以在这里 481 00:21:14,470 --> 00:21:16,430 也许市场正处于震荡区间 482 00:21:16,430 --> 00:21:17,750 左边几次大涨大跌 483 00:21:17,750 --> 00:21:18,869 如果没有在这里离场 484 00:21:18,869 --> 00:21:21,029 这是第二次向这根K线上方离场 485 00:21:21,029 --> 00:21:24,160 或者你可以看到很多空投在这里放弃 486 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,240 他们在初始入场价附近离场 487 00:21:29,900 --> 00:21:33,799 假如说一个交易者在这个高点上方离场了 488 00:21:33,799 --> 00:21:35,119 空头突破 489 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,329 所以这是一个重要的高点 490 00:21:37,329 --> 00:21:38,750 略微突破了他 491 00:21:38,750 --> 00:21:41,319 但仍然可能是双顶雄奇 492 00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:43,480 然后有一个非常好的阴线 493 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,480 很多空投会在那根K线下方再次卖出 494 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:47,880 祝他们也会之前离场 495 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:48,559 再次卖出 496 00:21:48,559 --> 00:21:51,740 现在二次入双顶尝试反转下跌 497 00:21:51,740 --> 00:21:54,289 双顶下跌之后的反弹 498 00:21:54,690 --> 00:21:56,490 双顶之后的空头突破 499 00:21:56,490 --> 00:22:01,920 然后反弹空头会在那根阴线的下方开仓做空 500 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,240 如果你在波段交易的中途处于某个原因 501 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,859 前期看起来依然有效 502 00:22:06,859 --> 00:22:10,440 可以在这里或者这里再次入场做空 503 00:22:12,619 --> 00:22:15,180 有时候很难一直坚定持有 504 00:22:15,180 --> 00:22:18,819 比如这里价格突破了前期重要的高点 505 00:22:18,819 --> 00:22:21,420 但这个小突破没有跟随 506 00:22:21,539 --> 00:22:24,960 不足以让交易者相信下降趋势已经结束 507 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,920 上涨趋势已经开始 508 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,519 下降趋势结束了 509 00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:30,319 现在处于震荡区间中 510 00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:33,960 但是价格正在从震荡区间的上沿反转下跌 511 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,839 也许左边的下降趋势也会从这里开始恢复 512 00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:45,319 高点降低的大反转 513 00:22:45,319 --> 00:22:48,170 上涨趋势非常强的突破 514 00:22:48,170 --> 00:22:50,269 上涨趋势尝试恢复 515 00:22:50,269 --> 00:22:51,390 但是失败了 516 00:22:51,390 --> 00:22:52,130 高点降 517 00:22:52,130 --> 00:22:53,990 所以这是高点降低的大反转 518 00:22:53,990 --> 00:22:55,650 并且是第二做空入场点 519 00:22:55,650 --> 00:22:57,609 第一第二 520 00:22:58,079 --> 00:23:00,380 如果你在这根阴线下方卖出 521 00:23:00,380 --> 00:23:02,259 把止损放在它的上方 522 00:23:02,259 --> 00:23:04,660 或者在这根K线的初始风险 523 00:23:04,660 --> 00:23:07,589 就是这段距离一倍初始风险 524 00:23:07,589 --> 00:23:09,190 两倍初始风险 525 00:23:09,190 --> 00:23:12,069 很多交易者喜欢在两倍初始风险的地方 526 00:23:12,069 --> 00:23:13,430 只赢一半 527 00:23:15,220 --> 00:23:17,240 所以很多在这里开仓的空头 528 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:18,700 会在这里止盈一部分 529 00:23:18,700 --> 00:23:20,630 看看发生了什么 530 00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:22,349 市场反转上涨 531 00:23:22,349 --> 00:23:26,269 这说明很多交易者栽在两倍初始风险的地方 532 00:23:26,269 --> 00:23:30,369 只因至少一部分很多交易者会全部止盈 533 00:23:30,369 --> 00:23:32,349 等到确实是下降趋势了 534 00:23:32,349 --> 00:23:33,170 再次入场 535 00:23:33,170 --> 00:23:36,990 因为相较于完全反转变成下降趋势 536 00:23:37,420 --> 00:23:40,319 这更有可能是震荡区间中的一段下跌 537 00:23:40,319 --> 00:23:42,140 注因为左边的背景 538 00:23:42,140 --> 00:23:45,299 所以在这里全部离场是合理的 539 00:23:47,319 --> 00:23:50,210 如果一个交易者在这里只赢了一半 540 00:23:50,210 --> 00:23:52,690 然后看到这么强势的反转上涨 541 00:23:52,690 --> 00:23:53,569 他会离场 542 00:23:53,569 --> 00:23:56,470 剩下的仓位他们担心这是一个上涨趋势 543 00:23:56,470 --> 00:24:01,140 楔形牛骑一次两次三次向下推动 544 00:24:01,140 --> 00:24:02,599 向上突破牛起 545 00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:05,319 而这可能只是那个突破后的回调 546 00:24:05,559 --> 00:24:08,480 所以很多交易者会在这里离场 547 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,880 确实可以看到很多空投放弃了 548 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,400 所以形成了这根大阳线 549 00:24:15,759 --> 00:24:18,519 你可以在这里或这里再次入场做空 550 00:24:18,519 --> 00:24:19,680 嵌套式楔形顶 551 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,920 合理的反转机会 552 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:23,420 再次强调 553 00:24:23,420 --> 00:24:26,079 如果你在这个高点上方没有拿住 554 00:24:26,079 --> 00:24:27,200 可以在这里离场了 555 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,369 还有这里再次入场 556 00:24:29,369 --> 00:24:31,130 如果看到新的信号 557 00:24:31,130 --> 00:24:33,490 就再次入场做空 558 00:24:34,279 --> 00:24:35,220 收盘了 559 00:24:35,220 --> 00:24:37,000 只赢离场 560 00:24:41,380 --> 00:24:44,740 这节课我们讲了大反转的组成部分 561 00:24:45,220 --> 00:24:47,980 比如高点降低的大反转 562 00:24:47,980 --> 00:24:49,299 上涨趋势 563 00:24:49,299 --> 00:24:51,450 趋势线被跌破 564 00:24:51,609 --> 00:24:52,910 这是小反转 565 00:24:52,910 --> 00:24:56,269 变成牛骑尝试恢复上涨趋势 566 00:24:56,269 --> 00:24:57,949 但是失败了 567 00:24:57,949 --> 00:25:00,660 就在前期高点下方失败了 568 00:25:00,660 --> 00:25:02,279 这就是高点降低的反转 569 00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:05,059 如果从前期高点上方开始反转下跌 570 00:25:05,059 --> 00:25:08,079 那就是高点抬高的大反转 571 00:25:12,059 --> 00:25:13,619 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 572 00:25:13,619 --> 00:25:17,019 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程大反转的 573 00:25:17,019 --> 00:25:19,440 第二节课就先讲到这里
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