BV1TtEe6oEWd · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,620 如果你多年来一直关注这个频道 2 00:00:01,620 --> 00:00:04,240 你知道每隔一段时间我会做一个非常罕见的视频 3 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:05,599 并称之为宝石掉落视频 4 00:00:05,599 --> 00:00:07,919 那就是我直接把宝石砸向你们 5 00:00:07,919 --> 00:00:09,400 而这正是今天这个视频的内容 6 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:14,789 我要给你们最顶级的股市暴富建议 7 00:00:14,789 --> 00:00:16,809 这就是我们今天要讨论的内容 8 00:00:16,809 --> 00:00:18,469 我所有领域的最佳技巧 9 00:00:21,050 --> 00:00:22,969 我认为这些股票将改变人生 10 00:00:22,969 --> 00:00:25,679 未来几年改变生活的股票 11 00:00:25,679 --> 00:00:26,739 希望大家喜欢这个视频 12 00:00:26,739 --> 00:00:29,989 希望大家能珍惜我花时间做这个视频 13 00:00:29,989 --> 00:00:30,949 我对此深思熟虑过 14 00:00:30,949 --> 00:00:33,270 我想给你们最真诚的建议 15 00:00:33,270 --> 00:00:33,590 只有一件事 16 00:00:33,590 --> 00:00:34,710 我只需要你做一件事 17 00:00:34,710 --> 00:00:37,109 请给这个视频点个赞 18 00:00:37,109 --> 00:00:38,270 这会让我知道 19 00:00:38,270 --> 00:00:40,060 你欣赏这样的视频 20 00:00:40,060 --> 00:00:41,100 这就是我需要的全部 21 00:00:41,100 --> 00:00:42,399 请务必订阅这个频道 22 00:00:42,399 --> 00:00:42,899 另外 23 00:00:42,899 --> 00:00:44,520 我们今天要讲的内容很多 24 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,020 现在就开始进入正题 25 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:46,509 好的 26 00:00:46,509 --> 00:00:47,090 开始吧 27 00:00:47,090 --> 00:00:47,469 各位观众 28 00:00:47,469 --> 00:00:48,109 好的 29 00:00:48,109 --> 00:00:50,549 首先听我说 30 00:00:50,549 --> 00:00:52,030 理解这是完全可能的 31 00:00:52,030 --> 00:00:54,878 你永远无法达到 32 00:00:54,878 --> 00:00:59,039 我们可以称之为拥有数百万美元的水平 33 00:00:59,039 --> 00:00:59,899 在股市进行投资 34 00:00:59,899 --> 00:01:01,399 或者拥有比梦想中更多财富 35 00:01:01,399 --> 00:01:06,890 在没有先理解和相信其可能性之前 36 00:01:06,890 --> 00:01:09,579 就像我自己一样 37 00:01:09,579 --> 00:01:12,009 在成功道路上的各个阶段 38 00:01:12,009 --> 00:01:13,289 今天我站在这里 39 00:01:13,289 --> 00:01:16,608 作为三十六岁的我，十八岁开始这个游戏 40 00:01:16,608 --> 00:01:17,849 在金钱游戏中的历程 41 00:01:17,849 --> 00:01:20,930 我的第一笔投资是两百五十美元 42 00:01:20,930 --> 00:01:23,030 从非常简朴的起点开始 43 00:01:23,030 --> 00:01:25,469 最初是在沃尔格林时代开始投资 44 00:01:25,469 --> 00:01:28,400 当时我会阅读纸质年报 45 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,079 试图发现下一个伟大公司 46 00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:32,760 如果我们快进五年后 47 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,978 或大约两百万美元 48 00:01:35,978 --> 00:01:38,679 仅我的股市投资组合就有 49 00:01:38,679 --> 00:01:42,450 所以之后我达到了百万美元以上 50 00:01:42,450 --> 00:01:43,930 让我们看看，我当时大约赚了两美元八美分 51 00:01:43,930 --> 00:01:47,759 所以我花了大约十年时间才达到一百万美元以上 52 00:01:47,759 --> 00:01:51,638 然后我很快就达到了千万富翁的水平 53 00:01:51,638 --> 00:01:52,918 大概在那之后两三年 54 00:01:52,918 --> 00:01:56,659 没错，然后我们随着岁月流逝不断发展壮大 55 00:01:56,659 --> 00:02:00,319 所以我完全是一个活生生的例子证明这完全可能 56 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:02,260 你知道不管你现在处于什么阶段 57 00:02:02,260 --> 00:02:06,640 我刚进入这个游戏时每小时赚八美元二十五美分 58 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,319 没错，所以现在你要明白自己当前的水平 59 00:02:09,319 --> 00:02:12,180 说实话这可能比我当初更好 60 00:02:12,180 --> 00:02:14,120 没错，所以你可能比我更领先 61 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:15,680 所以我明白这是完全可能的 62 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,580 如果只有我一个人成功的话 63 00:02:17,580 --> 00:02:19,560 而我是唯一成功的人 64 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,419 这还是上周的事 65 00:02:21,419 --> 00:02:23,659 这些都是我私有股票小组的成员 66 00:02:23,659 --> 00:02:27,000 我不得不签了五十一份 67 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,379 六位数的奖杯 68 00:02:28,379 --> 00:02:31,780 意味着人们现在投资组合已达到六位数以上 69 00:02:31,780 --> 00:02:34,149 我分配了十二个奖杯 70 00:02:34,149 --> 00:02:39,229 奖励那些仅在股市投资就达到七位数的人 71 00:02:39,229 --> 00:02:44,560 不是净资产七位数，而是仅股市投资组合七位数就能入七位数俱乐部 72 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:45,030 没错 73 00:02:45,030 --> 00:02:47,689 所以要明白这非常非常可能 74 00:02:47,689 --> 00:02:49,129 多年来我亲眼见过 75 00:02:49,129 --> 00:02:49,349 比如 76 00:02:49,349 --> 00:02:51,550 自从几年前我开设私密小组以来 77 00:02:51,550 --> 00:02:54,949 达到七位数规模的人数 78 00:02:54,949 --> 00:02:56,810 八位数甚至更多 79 00:02:56,810 --> 00:02:57,889 投资组合六位数 80 00:02:57,889 --> 00:02:59,610 这是一个惊人的数字没错 81 00:02:59,610 --> 00:03:01,439 这张拼贴画就像旧照片 82 00:03:01,439 --> 00:03:03,520 那些进入名人堂的人 83 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:04,939 甚至很少有人会拍照留存 84 00:03:04,939 --> 00:03:08,240 看到人们取得的成功层次简直难以置信 85 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,300 所以要理解和相信这完全可能 86 00:03:11,300 --> 00:03:12,979 不管你想要达到什么目标 87 00:03:12,979 --> 00:03:14,939 无论是成为股市百万富翁 88 00:03:14,939 --> 00:03:17,009 千万富翁十 89 00:03:17,009 --> 00:03:19,250 你知道净资产千万美元以上 90 00:03:19,250 --> 00:03:20,289 无论你想要去哪里 91 00:03:20,289 --> 00:03:21,919 这都非常非常可能 92 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,560 在我自己和许多人中都有实现 93 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,860 以及众多普通人 94 00:03:26,860 --> 00:03:27,159 好的 95 00:03:27,159 --> 00:03:32,939 所以首先要明白首要数字二是收入与支出管理非常简单 96 00:03:32,939 --> 00:03:34,449 我必须始终覆盖这一点 97 00:03:34,449 --> 00:03:35,870 你需要处于能够 98 00:03:35,870 --> 00:03:36,449 你想要 99 00:03:36,449 --> 00:03:37,870 想要获得大亨财富 100 00:03:37,870 --> 00:03:42,099 你必须至少每月两次处于买入位置 101 00:03:42,099 --> 00:03:42,719 好的 102 00:03:42,719 --> 00:03:44,360 至少每月两次 103 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,530 你能定期购买股票 104 00:03:46,530 --> 00:03:47,310 听着 105 00:03:47,310 --> 00:03:50,009 这不仅仅在数学层面重要 106 00:03:50,009 --> 00:03:52,449 这在心理层面同样重要 107 00:03:52,449 --> 00:03:53,199 好的 108 00:03:53,199 --> 00:03:53,819 顺便说一句 109 00:03:53,819 --> 00:03:56,000 对于我忠实的订阅者们 110 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,400 随着视频进行，我会展示一些家居照片 111 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,199 希望这能让你们感到兴奋 112 00:04:01,199 --> 00:04:03,509 我还没太多展示新家的样子 113 00:04:03,509 --> 00:04:04,250 希望你们会喜欢 114 00:04:04,250 --> 00:04:04,610 好的 115 00:04:04,610 --> 00:04:07,310 但这在心理层面非常重要 116 00:04:07,310 --> 00:04:08,449 听着 117 00:04:08,689 --> 00:04:10,270 你必须保持主动进攻 118 00:04:10,270 --> 00:04:12,849 投资者常犯的最大错误 119 00:04:12,849 --> 00:04:14,770 是开始采取防御姿态 120 00:04:14,770 --> 00:04:15,770 他们陷入被动 121 00:04:15,770 --> 00:04:17,009 开始采取防御 122 00:04:17,009 --> 00:04:19,750 而你可以通过不规律买入做到这点 123 00:04:19,750 --> 00:04:21,389 如果你能定期买入 124 00:04:21,389 --> 00:04:22,800 至少每月两次 125 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,720 你始终处于思考状态 126 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:27,600 我需要增加持股 127 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:28,000 更多 128 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:29,579 优质公司的所有权 129 00:04:29,579 --> 00:04:31,660 我需要增持更大份额 130 00:04:31,660 --> 00:04:32,800 更大所有权份额 131 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,360 当你开始采取防御 132 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,000 这是一种可能陷入的心态 133 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,379 如果你无法持续投资市场 134 00:04:38,379 --> 00:04:39,029 对吧 135 00:04:39,029 --> 00:04:39,930 这很糟糕 136 00:04:39,930 --> 00:04:40,949 这时你会开始思考 137 00:04:40,949 --> 00:04:42,490 也许我应该卖出所有股票 138 00:04:42,490 --> 00:04:44,050 也许市场要下跌了 139 00:04:44,050 --> 00:04:45,149 也许会发生这种情况 140 00:04:45,149 --> 00:04:46,430 也许会发生这种情况 141 00:04:46,430 --> 00:04:48,600 也许我该开始动用保证金 142 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,000 所有这些错误都可能犯下 143 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,920 因为开始变得防御性思维 144 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,620 我现在能持续十八年保持进攻姿态 145 00:04:56,620 --> 00:04:58,899 即使当年我在做那些 146 00:04:58,899 --> 00:05:02,100 你知道的烂工作赚取微薄收入 147 00:05:02,100 --> 00:05:04,199 我始终量入为出 148 00:05:04,199 --> 00:05:06,379 我始终收入大于支出 149 00:05:06,379 --> 00:05:09,819 如果这意味着每月能投资几百块 150 00:05:09,819 --> 00:05:11,399 那每月大概两三百美元 151 00:05:11,399 --> 00:05:12,500 但这不算什么 152 00:05:12,500 --> 00:05:14,139 并不是零右 153 00:05:14,139 --> 00:05:15,420 然后我找到了更好的工作 154 00:05:15,420 --> 00:05:17,658 随后我升职了并开始有能力投资 155 00:05:17,658 --> 00:05:20,439 你知道每月两三千美元 156 00:05:20,439 --> 00:05:21,899 这是个非常好的月份 157 00:05:21,899 --> 00:05:26,829 对啊，总是保持这种进攻心态 158 00:05:26,829 --> 00:05:29,300 有一年我退休了 159 00:05:29,300 --> 00:05:31,620 退休了而且没做任何工作 160 00:05:31,620 --> 00:05:32,860 在我第一个儿子出生时 161 00:05:32,860 --> 00:05:34,048 我现在有三个孩子 162 00:05:34,048 --> 00:05:36,088 嗯但在我第一个儿子出生时 163 00:05:36,088 --> 00:05:38,309 我休了整整一年假 164 00:05:38,309 --> 00:05:39,649 没做任何工作相关的事 165 00:05:39,649 --> 00:05:40,449 我还是在炒股 166 00:05:40,449 --> 00:05:41,759 就在那一年 167 00:05:41,759 --> 00:05:44,199 我比以往任何时候都更注重防御 168 00:05:44,199 --> 00:05:45,019 因为我有了孩子 169 00:05:45,019 --> 00:05:46,779 但因为我没有收入 170 00:05:46,779 --> 00:05:49,399 所以无法持续投资市场 171 00:05:49,399 --> 00:05:52,100 结果开始玩杠杆 172 00:05:52,100 --> 00:05:55,800 随后我开始这些游戏试图全仓股票 173 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:56,519 全部押注股票 174 00:05:56,519 --> 00:05:58,040 哦股市要发布财报了 175 00:05:58,040 --> 00:05:59,100 让我尝试入场 176 00:05:59,100 --> 00:06:00,279 哦我得退出这只股票 177 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,120 因为财报可能下跌 178 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,310 这些防御性信号 179 00:06:05,310 --> 00:06:08,050 对因为无法持续投资市场 180 00:06:08,050 --> 00:06:11,470 然后我创立了房地产营销公司重新进入进攻 181 00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:12,279 天啊 182 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,920 处于进攻状态的感觉真是太棒了 183 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,519 尤其是作为个股投资者 184 00:06:17,519 --> 00:06:18,759 当你转向防御时 185 00:06:18,759 --> 00:06:22,790 从数学和心理角度都不好 186 00:06:22,790 --> 00:06:25,110 最终会自己亏很多钱 187 00:06:25,110 --> 00:06:29,000 必须收入大于支出并专注收入端 188 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:30,079 然后才是支出端 189 00:06:30,079 --> 00:06:30,660 好的 190 00:06:30,660 --> 00:06:32,178 接下来 191 00:06:32,418 --> 00:06:33,559 第三点 192 00:06:33,559 --> 00:06:38,009 专注长期人们低估了持续积累 193 00:06:38,009 --> 00:06:41,069 在十年十五年二十年跨度中能实现什么 194 00:06:41,069 --> 00:06:41,620 对的 195 00:06:41,620 --> 00:06:42,399 每个人 196 00:06:42,399 --> 00:06:42,819 我是说 197 00:06:42,819 --> 00:06:47,129 很多人陷入即时思维 198 00:06:47,129 --> 00:06:49,230 对啊你知道的 199 00:06:49,230 --> 00:06:50,670 我不知道这是什么 200 00:06:50,670 --> 00:06:51,189 呃 201 00:06:51,189 --> 00:06:51,509 你知道的 202 00:06:51,509 --> 00:06:55,319 也许他们小时候身边有太多成年人 203 00:06:55,319 --> 00:06:57,800 也许他们的父母给了他们想要的一切 204 00:06:57,800 --> 00:06:58,259 没错 205 00:06:58,259 --> 00:06:59,540 然后他们哭了一会儿 206 00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:01,839 接着父母就给了玩具或者满足他们的要求 207 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:02,819 我不知道发生了什么 208 00:07:02,819 --> 00:07:03,959 也许这是社交媒体 209 00:07:03,959 --> 00:07:05,788 就像多巴胺的刺激 210 00:07:05,788 --> 00:07:08,329 你知道下一个短视频和下一个TikTok视频 211 00:07:08,329 --> 00:07:10,108 我不知道这是什么 212 00:07:10,108 --> 00:07:13,519 但太多人急着要结果 213 00:07:13,519 --> 00:07:14,360 就在这一刻 214 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:15,220 就在这一秒 215 00:07:15,220 --> 00:07:16,019 就在这一周 216 00:07:16,019 --> 00:07:16,759 就在今天 217 00:07:16,759 --> 00:07:17,259 对吧 218 00:07:17,259 --> 00:07:20,240 而不是专注于长期目标 219 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,220 没有人能在股市暴富 220 00:07:23,220 --> 00:07:24,480 从未考虑过短期 221 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:25,620 一个都没有 222 00:07:25,620 --> 00:07:26,600 一个都没有 223 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,660 福布斯富豪榜上没有一个人 224 00:07:29,660 --> 00:07:30,680 随便看看 225 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,100 没有人靠短期思维成功 226 00:07:34,100 --> 00:07:37,759 每个人都在长期规划 227 00:07:37,759 --> 00:07:42,519 在十年、十五年甚至更长时间里打造了非凡事业 228 00:07:42,519 --> 00:07:44,000 每个人都是如此 229 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,839 所以这种思维方式 230 00:07:47,839 --> 00:07:48,199 你知道的 231 00:07:48,199 --> 00:07:49,240 我只想一夜暴富 232 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,639 六个月后就能成功是愚蠢的 233 00:07:51,639 --> 00:07:54,240 必须着眼长远 234 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,480 我的新房子俯瞰整个拉斯维加斯城市 235 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:58,899 正对着拉斯维加斯大道 236 00:07:58,899 --> 00:08:00,279 想象我说 237 00:08:00,279 --> 00:08:00,720 你知道的 238 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:01,519 想象那里一片空白 239 00:08:01,519 --> 00:08:04,439 然后我说我们要建这条 amazing 的拉斯维加斯大道 240 00:08:04,439 --> 00:08:05,620 还有这些高楼大厦 241 00:08:05,620 --> 00:08:07,620 并在一年内完成 242 00:08:07,620 --> 00:08:10,740 这根本不可能 243 00:08:10,740 --> 00:08:14,019 然后一年内建起所有建筑 244 00:08:14,379 --> 00:08:15,240 这确实不现实 245 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,180 这太不合理 246 00:08:16,180 --> 00:08:16,699 对吧 247 00:08:16,699 --> 00:08:17,970 不过我说 248 00:08:17,970 --> 00:08:18,329 你知道吗 249 00:08:18,329 --> 00:08:19,610 我觉得这些大楼都能建起来 250 00:08:19,610 --> 00:08:20,850 那里将会令人难以置信 251 00:08:20,850 --> 00:08:22,889 但接下来二十年会发生 252 00:08:22,889 --> 00:08:23,430 然后你说 253 00:08:23,430 --> 00:08:23,689 好吧 254 00:08:23,689 --> 00:08:26,189 这确实有可能实现对吧 255 00:08:26,189 --> 00:08:26,810 所以这件事 256 00:08:26,810 --> 00:08:29,269 同样需要考虑你的投资组合 257 00:08:29,269 --> 00:08:31,230 要着眼于长期 258 00:08:31,430 --> 00:08:32,110 就像我说的 259 00:08:32,110 --> 00:08:33,950 人们低估了自己能完成的事 260 00:08:33,950 --> 00:08:34,269 我是说 261 00:08:34,269 --> 00:08:35,970 十年后你可能在哪里 262 00:08:35,970 --> 00:08:36,850 十五年后呢 263 00:08:36,850 --> 00:08:37,909 二十年后会怎样 264 00:08:37,909 --> 00:08:39,389 可能会是令人难以置信的地方 265 00:08:39,389 --> 00:08:41,970 你必须假设自己活到一百岁 266 00:08:41,970 --> 00:08:44,710 每个人都应该假设能活到一百岁 267 00:08:44,710 --> 00:08:45,769 你可能不会 268 00:08:45,769 --> 00:08:48,169 你甚至可能超过一百岁 269 00:08:48,169 --> 00:08:49,629 但要计划活到一百岁 270 00:08:49,629 --> 00:08:53,750 好的然后从那里逆向计算 271 00:08:53,750 --> 00:08:54,009 好的 272 00:08:54,009 --> 00:08:54,710 我将会活到一百岁 273 00:08:54,710 --> 00:08:56,429 所以我在这里打长期算盘 274 00:08:56,429 --> 00:08:57,610 当你这样思考时 275 00:08:57,610 --> 00:08:59,029 如果你四十岁 276 00:08:59,029 --> 00:09:00,370 你仍有很长的路要走 277 00:09:00,370 --> 00:09:00,669 你仍然 278 00:09:00,669 --> 00:09:00,990 我是说 279 00:09:00,990 --> 00:09:02,029 你连一半都没开始 280 00:09:02,029 --> 00:09:03,029 你甚至还没到半场 281 00:09:03,029 --> 00:09:03,370 呢 282 00:09:03,370 --> 00:09:04,789 现在这个阶段 283 00:09:04,789 --> 00:09:06,950 我们可以说是五十岁左右 284 00:09:06,950 --> 00:09:09,210 就像比赛的中场点 285 00:09:09,210 --> 00:09:10,070 如果你在观看我们 286 00:09:10,070 --> 00:09:10,779 然后你会说 287 00:09:10,779 --> 00:09:11,399 你知道的 288 00:09:11,399 --> 00:09:12,220 这就是我的经纪人 289 00:09:12,220 --> 00:09:12,679 而你在观看 290 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,000 如果你三十六岁 291 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:14,779 你会说老兄 292 00:09:14,779 --> 00:09:16,440 我现在的投资组合只有 293 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,500 你知道的七万五千美元 294 00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:21,529 我离杰里米的这个投资组合还差很远 295 00:09:21,529 --> 00:09:22,690 这家伙有这个投资组合 296 00:09:22,690 --> 00:09:23,330 没错 297 00:09:23,330 --> 00:09:26,669 明白到五十岁时你还有很长的路要走 298 00:09:26,669 --> 00:09:27,669 如果你三十六岁 299 00:09:27,669 --> 00:09:28,230 而你在观看这个 300 00:09:28,230 --> 00:09:29,429 你有七万五千美元 301 00:09:29,429 --> 00:09:31,350 你以为自己做得不好 302 00:09:31,710 --> 00:09:34,730 你能想象到五十岁时你会有多少财富 303 00:09:34,730 --> 00:09:36,909 如果你真的专注于这个游戏 304 00:09:36,909 --> 00:09:38,090 买入优质公司 305 00:09:38,090 --> 00:09:39,250 保持进攻态势 306 00:09:39,250 --> 00:09:42,830 接下来十四年每月至少买入两次股票 307 00:09:42,830 --> 00:09:44,690 你知道自己会有多少钱 308 00:09:44,690 --> 00:09:46,210 那会多得惊人 309 00:09:46,210 --> 00:09:47,250 惊人至极 310 00:09:47,250 --> 00:09:49,529 这就是我要对你说的 311 00:09:49,529 --> 00:09:49,730 兄弟 312 00:09:49,730 --> 00:09:51,309 要着眼长期 313 00:09:51,309 --> 00:09:53,929 如果你现在二十岁正在看这个视频 314 00:09:53,929 --> 00:09:55,409 天啊 315 00:09:55,409 --> 00:09:58,889 到四十岁时 316 00:09:58,889 --> 00:09:59,509 你 317 00:09:59,509 --> 00:10:00,149 你已拥有巨额财富 318 00:10:00,149 --> 00:10:01,690 都不知道该怎么处理 319 00:10:01,690 --> 00:10:03,950 但必须保持自律 320 00:10:03,950 --> 00:10:07,318 要长期专注那些基本面 321 00:10:07,318 --> 00:10:08,479 第四点在这里 322 00:10:08,479 --> 00:10:11,298 随着进度推进，接下来会更复杂 323 00:10:11,298 --> 00:10:11,850 好的 324 00:10:11,850 --> 00:10:13,830 SWOT分析至关重要 325 00:10:13,830 --> 00:10:15,090 这是最重要的环节之一 326 00:10:15,090 --> 00:10:17,330 在寻找优质股票时 327 00:10:17,330 --> 00:10:18,068 好的 328 00:10:18,068 --> 00:10:20,818 SWOT分析优势 329 00:10:20,818 --> 00:10:22,019 劣势 330 00:10:22,019 --> 00:10:23,778 机会与威胁 331 00:10:23,778 --> 00:10:26,879 这就是研究企业的过程 332 00:10:26,879 --> 00:10:27,679 好的 333 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,820 需要思考这家企业的优势 334 00:10:30,820 --> 00:10:34,318 然后分析其劣势 335 00:10:34,318 --> 00:10:35,278 接着要思考 336 00:10:35,278 --> 00:10:35,499 好的 337 00:10:35,499 --> 00:10:38,119 这家公司有哪些增长机会 338 00:10:38,119 --> 00:10:40,259 这家公司未来的增长机会 339 00:10:40,259 --> 00:10:42,639 然后是威胁 340 00:10:42,639 --> 00:10:46,299 必须考虑这家公司的威胁 341 00:10:46,299 --> 00:10:48,460 比如谁会抢夺他们的市场份额 342 00:10:48,460 --> 00:10:50,059 谁能摧毁这家公司 343 00:10:50,059 --> 00:10:51,529 没错 344 00:10:51,529 --> 00:10:51,970 你可能会说 345 00:10:51,970 --> 00:10:52,629 好的 346 00:10:52,629 --> 00:10:54,509 我该如何判断 347 00:10:54,509 --> 00:10:56,789 这就是阅读10-K文件的重要性 348 00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:57,570 年度报告 349 00:10:57,570 --> 00:10:58,470 10-Q文件 350 00:10:58,470 --> 00:10:59,559 季度报告 351 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,460 参加电话会议和公司活动 352 00:11:01,460 --> 00:11:02,700 首席执行官访谈 353 00:11:02,700 --> 00:11:03,919 诸如此类的事情现在 354 00:11:03,919 --> 00:11:06,580 你可能会说这听起来像工作 355 00:11:06,580 --> 00:11:08,259 这会占用我的TikTok时间 356 00:11:08,259 --> 00:11:08,519 时间 357 00:11:08,519 --> 00:11:09,879 这会占用我的Netflix时间 358 00:11:09,879 --> 00:11:11,068 猜怎么着兄弟 359 00:11:11,068 --> 00:11:12,769 难道你永远赚不到大钱吗 360 00:11:12,769 --> 00:11:14,308 你可能看错了视频 361 00:11:14,308 --> 00:11:15,168 去关注你的日常 362 00:11:15,168 --> 00:11:17,048 TikTok去刷Netflix 363 00:11:17,048 --> 00:11:17,600 好吧 364 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:18,379 爱情岛 365 00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:19,080 不管是什么 366 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:20,139 你们那边注意点 367 00:11:20,139 --> 00:11:20,519 好的 368 00:11:20,519 --> 00:11:22,000 去刷那个花时间吧 369 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:23,500 你可能没看对适合你的视频 370 00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:23,860 好吧 371 00:11:23,860 --> 00:11:25,019 如果你愿意付出努力 372 00:11:25,019 --> 00:11:25,259 现在 373 00:11:25,259 --> 00:11:26,220 我们现在在谈 374 00:11:26,220 --> 00:11:29,840 所有这些中最重要的是机会与威胁 375 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:31,139 因为你需要考虑 376 00:11:31,139 --> 00:11:33,549 这家公司未来增长的来源在哪里 377 00:11:33,549 --> 00:11:36,490 然后还要考虑什么可能让这家公司陷入困境 378 00:11:36,490 --> 00:11:38,210 我总是从框架角度思考 379 00:11:38,210 --> 00:11:40,110 思考可能性有多大 380 00:11:40,110 --> 00:11:43,190 我在未来三年内股票能翻倍甚至更多 381 00:11:43,190 --> 00:11:44,110 五年时间 382 00:11:44,110 --> 00:11:45,230 可能性有多大 383 00:11:45,230 --> 00:11:46,970 我股票会亏50% 384 00:11:48,990 --> 00:11:52,519 要弄清楚机会与威胁至关重要 385 00:11:52,519 --> 00:11:56,519 如果公司有绝佳机会且能有效执行 386 00:11:56,519 --> 00:12:00,129 该公司CEO已证明执行能力 387 00:12:00,129 --> 00:12:03,850 你现在面临巨大的投资机会 388 00:12:03,850 --> 00:12:05,070 如果存在大量威胁 389 00:12:05,070 --> 00:12:06,990 这会让投资变得非常危险 390 00:12:06,990 --> 00:12:08,330 可能被这个颠覆 391 00:12:08,330 --> 00:12:09,450 可能被那个颠覆 392 00:12:09,450 --> 00:12:12,360 显然有很多担忧AI会颠覆行业 393 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:15,179 企业将在AI时代蓬勃发展 394 00:12:15,179 --> 00:12:19,269 而其他企业将被彻底颠覆 395 00:12:19,269 --> 00:12:24,009 每次出现重大技术复兴 396 00:12:24,009 --> 00:12:24,429 没错 397 00:12:24,429 --> 00:12:26,549 总会有企业被颠覆 398 00:12:26,549 --> 00:12:30,419 而其他企业则借此大幅增长 399 00:12:30,419 --> 00:12:31,500 所以你明白了吧 400 00:12:31,500 --> 00:12:34,059 我们可以追溯到甚至沃尔玛时代 401 00:12:34,059 --> 00:12:35,240 我最近在想沃尔玛 402 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,440 我还记得二十年前沃尔玛引发的诸多负面舆论 403 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,559 当沃尔玛入驻城镇时 404 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,740 其他店铺纷纷倒闭，但沃尔玛是个巨大机遇 405 00:12:45,740 --> 00:12:47,519 没错，如果你是沃尔玛的主要供应商 406 00:12:47,519 --> 00:12:49,659 你的业务可能在这些年大幅增长 407 00:12:49,659 --> 00:12:50,840 随着沃尔玛的扩张 408 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,750 而其他企业却遭到了冲击 409 00:12:52,750 --> 00:12:54,149 这种情况每次都会发生 410 00:12:54,149 --> 00:12:55,289 这也发生在电商领域 411 00:12:55,289 --> 00:12:56,399 互联网时代 412 00:12:56,399 --> 00:12:57,360 现在也会这样 413 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,480 在AI时代，某些企业将蓬勃发展 414 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,730 而另一些企业则会表现不佳 415 00:13:02,730 --> 00:13:05,889 这就是现在需要分析企业机遇与威胁的时候 416 00:13:05,889 --> 00:13:08,389 对于拥有数千X股票的你们 417 00:13:08,389 --> 00:13:09,399 Com对吧 418 00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:11,360 千X股或千X包 419 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,679 我们会寄送一顶帽子和所有好东西 420 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,940 所以对于千X股票.com 421 00:13:15,940 --> 00:13:17,700 我们有一个非常酷的东西 422 00:13:17,700 --> 00:13:19,399 能极大帮助你 423 00:13:19,399 --> 00:13:22,500 你可以在此输入任意股票代码 424 00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:24,820 然后生成一份入门级报告 425 00:13:24,820 --> 00:13:27,870 能以简单方式解释该企业 426 00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:32,889 我们现在还能生成对冲基金级别的公司报告 427 00:13:32,889 --> 00:13:35,929 这能带你从完全不了解公司 428 00:13:35,929 --> 00:13:40,750 在15到30分钟内理解公司概况 429 00:13:40,750 --> 00:13:42,899 我刚才甚至没听说过这家公司 430 00:13:42,899 --> 00:13:44,379 完成这些报告后 431 00:13:44,379 --> 00:13:44,679 会说 432 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,220 我现在大概理解了这家公司 433 00:13:48,220 --> 00:13:51,340 此外这里我们列出关键信息 434 00:13:51,340 --> 00:13:52,200 真正重要的内容 435 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,980 每个公司我们都标注核心要点及需关注事项 436 00:13:55,980 --> 00:13:58,000 如何正确研究该公司 437 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,149 关键KPI指标 438 00:14:00,149 --> 00:14:04,610 需监控的利好与风险点 439 00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:06,500 这些信息极为珍贵 440 00:14:06,500 --> 00:14:08,940 我们近期在千X推出的这些功能 441 00:14:08,940 --> 00:14:10,259 千X的功能令人惊叹 442 00:14:10,259 --> 00:14:12,179 如果你有千 Hicks 的权限 443 00:14:12,179 --> 00:14:14,340 一定要充分利用 444 00:14:14,340 --> 00:14:16,669 如果你想加入我的前言小组 445 00:14:16,669 --> 00:14:17,629 加入千X 446 00:14:17,629 --> 00:14:19,590 这些内容会作为置顶评论 447 00:14:19,590 --> 00:14:20,490 请务必注意 448 00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:23,509 我们将在未来几天内关闭新成员注册 449 00:14:23,509 --> 00:14:24,889 如果你想加入我们，就来这里 450 00:14:24,889 --> 00:14:25,649 尽快加入我们 451 00:14:25,649 --> 00:14:28,000 现在这个置顶评论已经发布在那里了 452 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:28,879 摄氏度 453 00:14:28,879 --> 00:14:31,519 我正在运行那些入门级报告 454 00:14:31,519 --> 00:14:32,700 那里就是摄氏度 455 00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:33,840 听着，我之前告诉过你们 456 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,629 我会加入一些股票 457 00:14:35,629 --> 00:14:37,730 摄氏度是长期的巨大机会 458 00:14:37,730 --> 00:14:39,409 这只股票今天是28美元 459 00:14:39,409 --> 00:14:41,750 下周或下个月这只股票会怎样 460 00:14:41,750 --> 00:14:44,440 谁知道呢，谁还管那么多 461 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,440 摄氏度这家公司长期上涨空间巨大 462 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:49,730 能量饮料公司 463 00:14:49,730 --> 00:14:50,870 他们还拥有Lonnie 464 00:14:50,870 --> 00:14:52,409 他们已整合了Rockstar 465 00:14:52,409 --> 00:14:54,009 这个历史悠久的Rockstar品牌 466 00:14:54,009 --> 00:14:54,649 他们已经收购了 467 00:14:54,649 --> 00:14:56,269 从百事到百事分销 468 00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:58,570 现在他们正在全球扩张 469 00:14:58,570 --> 00:14:59,759 在这个时间节点 470 00:14:59,759 --> 00:15:01,080 摄氏度拥有 471 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,720 你知道未来十年二十年的增长 472 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:03,480 这家公司未来还有 473 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,909 因此，摄氏度是巨大的机会，绝对 474 00:15:07,909 --> 00:15:09,549 我正在大量投资 475 00:15:09,549 --> 00:15:10,950 这已经是公开持仓了 476 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:11,529 一百二十 477 00:15:11,529 --> 00:15:12,590 目前已达六千美元 478 00:15:12,590 --> 00:15:14,149 我已获利一万五千元 479 00:15:14,149 --> 00:15:17,110 我认为未来几年我们将大幅上涨 480 00:15:17,110 --> 00:15:19,490 摄氏度是长期重大机会 481 00:15:19,490 --> 00:15:26,149 第五点避免投资营收增长存疑的股票 482 00:15:26,149 --> 00:15:28,009 你不希望买入这样的股票 483 00:15:28,009 --> 00:15:31,360 不确定这家公司未来能否增长营收 484 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,049 这很困难 485 00:15:33,049 --> 00:15:35,450 通常要选择有信心的公司 486 00:15:35,450 --> 00:15:36,529 能增长营收 487 00:15:36,529 --> 00:15:40,328 未来多年保持两位数增长 488 00:15:40,328 --> 00:15:42,328 这通常是更安全的选择 489 00:15:42,328 --> 00:15:43,990 原因在于 490 00:15:43,990 --> 00:15:47,830 要理解市场愿意为哪些公司支付溢价 491 00:15:47,830 --> 00:15:50,740 人们愿意为高利润率公司支付溢价 492 00:15:50,740 --> 00:15:53,299 且不被视为业务颠覆者 493 00:15:53,299 --> 00:15:56,460 人们也愿意为高营收增长公司支付溢价 494 00:15:56,460 --> 00:15:59,360 强劲的营收增长通常指 495 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,120 公司能实现两位数以上增长 496 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,328 有一家营收增长3%的公司 497 00:16:05,729 --> 00:16:07,188 这很不确定 498 00:16:07,188 --> 00:16:09,068 这是非常不确定的情况 499 00:16:09,068 --> 00:16:11,089 除非是处于扭亏为盈或类似情况 500 00:16:11,089 --> 00:16:12,869 这是一只令人恐惧的股票 501 00:16:12,869 --> 00:16:16,330 所以我理解你正在承担很大风险 502 00:16:16,330 --> 00:16:18,850 因为你的股票可能不会像你预期的那样增值 503 00:16:18,850 --> 00:16:20,409 你认为它会增值的方式 504 00:16:20,409 --> 00:16:22,429 所以你真正需要寻找的是 505 00:16:22,429 --> 00:16:26,049 你不需要找那些营收增长70%的公司 506 00:16:26,049 --> 00:16:31,909 但要寻找那些在前瞻市盈率上估值合理的公司 507 00:16:31,909 --> 00:16:33,090 而不是那些疯狂的 508 00:16:33,090 --> 00:16:34,629 但具备强劲营收增长 509 00:16:34,629 --> 00:16:37,250 并且你确信能保持高速增长 510 00:16:37,250 --> 00:16:38,669 再次回到 511 00:16:38,669 --> 00:16:39,289 你是如何 512 00:16:39,289 --> 00:16:43,740 你是如何建立对公司年均增长10%以上信心的 513 00:16:43,740 --> 00:16:44,740 他们证明了什么 514 00:16:44,740 --> 00:16:46,678 他们拥有已验证的ceo 515 00:16:46,678 --> 00:16:47,739 他们能做到这一点对吧 516 00:16:47,739 --> 00:16:50,198 同时还要关注投资者电话会议 517 00:16:50,198 --> 00:16:51,599 可以通过thousandxstocks.com 518 00:16:51,599 --> 00:16:52,089 网站 519 00:16:52,089 --> 00:16:53,849 听取ceo访谈 520 00:16:53,849 --> 00:16:55,610 深入了解公司情况 521 00:16:55,610 --> 00:16:56,929 从更高层次理解 522 00:16:56,929 --> 00:16:59,009 观察该公司营收趋势 523 00:16:59,009 --> 00:17:01,610 如果他们上季度营收增长20% 524 00:17:01,610 --> 00:17:02,970 三个月前 525 00:17:02,970 --> 00:17:05,329 两个月前降至15% 526 00:17:07,250 --> 00:17:09,719 最新季度仅5% 527 00:17:10,239 --> 00:17:11,398 你可能陷入麻烦 528 00:17:11,398 --> 00:17:14,598 这家公司可能正面临营收下滑 529 00:17:14,598 --> 00:17:15,439 转向错误方向 530 00:17:15,439 --> 00:17:17,398 实际上开始下降 531 00:17:17,398 --> 00:17:19,409 营收增长 532 00:17:19,409 --> 00:17:21,068 你需要选择营收强劲增长的公司 533 00:17:21,068 --> 00:17:23,469 这会让你生活轻松许多 534 00:17:23,469 --> 00:17:24,359 没错 535 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:28,028 这样的典型例子是elf化妆品 536 00:17:28,028 --> 00:17:28,729 Elf Beauty 537 00:17:28,729 --> 00:17:29,909 看看这个案例 538 00:17:29,909 --> 00:17:31,328 这就是我们要找的公司类型 539 00:17:31,328 --> 00:17:33,189 需要卓越的营收增长 540 00:17:33,189 --> 00:17:34,759 持续多年 541 00:17:34,759 --> 00:17:38,240 通常年营收增长双位数以上 542 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,829 这是我们希望看到的公司表现 543 00:17:40,829 --> 00:17:42,329 像Elf这样的公司 544 00:17:42,329 --> 00:17:43,809 我确信未来能持续增长至10% 545 00:17:43,809 --> 00:17:45,869 以上多年 546 00:17:45,869 --> 00:17:47,650 甚至到2030年代 547 00:17:47,650 --> 00:17:50,230 这就是我想要寻找的公司类型 548 00:17:50,230 --> 00:17:51,410 这就是这样的机会 549 00:17:51,410 --> 00:17:56,380 猜猜看，精灵也是另一只长期大幅上涨的股票 550 00:17:56,380 --> 00:17:57,480 就我个人观点 551 00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,390 自从我在2019年通过公开账户开始投资这只股票 552 00:18:00,390 --> 00:18:03,589 我的原始股已经上涨了387% 553 00:18:03,589 --> 00:18:05,069 我的收益大约增长了700% 554 00:18:05,069 --> 00:18:07,250 我最近刚在公开账户买入了股份 555 00:18:07,250 --> 00:18:09,490 这些股份已经上涨了18% 556 00:18:09,490 --> 00:18:11,670 今天这只精灵股股价是5.8美元 557 00:18:11,670 --> 00:18:12,329 从长期来看 558 00:18:12,329 --> 00:18:14,329 我认为这只股票现在超过200美元 559 00:18:14,329 --> 00:18:17,089 所以这是一只巨大的长期上涨潜力股 560 00:18:17,089 --> 00:18:18,809 我知道它和科技无关 561 00:18:18,809 --> 00:18:19,569 所以有些人会说 562 00:18:19,569 --> 00:18:20,210 天啊 563 00:18:20,210 --> 00:18:21,170 能在科技股赚钱吗 564 00:18:21,170 --> 00:18:21,890 嗯 565 00:18:21,890 --> 00:18:22,950 你知道在科技之外 566 00:18:22,950 --> 00:18:25,388 猜猜看，从科技股赚了很多钱 567 00:18:25,388 --> 00:18:26,388 并非所有都是热门股 568 00:18:26,388 --> 00:18:26,628 比如 569 00:18:26,628 --> 00:18:28,828 这是我投资过的最佳股票之一 570 00:18:28,828 --> 00:18:32,960 过去五年股市中能找到的最佳非科技股 571 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,640 Monster能量是个好例子 572 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,339 我们刚才还提到Celsius能源 573 00:18:36,339 --> 00:18:38,960 如果你五年前投资Monster能量 574 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,700 当时还叫汉森天然饮料 575 00:18:40,700 --> 00:18:41,940 天啊 576 00:18:41,940 --> 00:18:44,079 你赚的钱简直难以想象 577 00:18:44,079 --> 00:18:46,079 我甚至不知道该怎么形容赚了多少钱 578 00:18:46,079 --> 00:18:49,559 如果你在他们推出Monster时投入十万到两百万 579 00:18:49,559 --> 00:18:51,680 就能看到能量饮料的爆发式增长 580 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:52,440 天啊 581 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,960 你可能现在已经是亿万富翁了 582 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,519 这简直令人震惊 583 00:18:57,519 --> 00:18:58,279 你能赚到多少钱 584 00:18:58,279 --> 00:18:59,660 至少是数百万美元 585 00:18:59,660 --> 00:19:00,019 没错 586 00:19:00,019 --> 00:19:01,140 巨额财富 587 00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:02,960 所以要明白 588 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:03,960 你知道的 589 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,920 科技股之外也有巨大机会 590 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,380 而精灵就是其中之一 591 00:19:08,380 --> 00:19:09,720 第六点 592 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:15,568 避免购买过度炒作且人人热议的股票 593 00:19:15,568 --> 00:19:17,509 通常当股票 594 00:19:17,509 --> 00:19:21,108 在彭博社和CBC等媒体频繁报道时 595 00:19:21,108 --> 00:19:23,549 以及X平台上的所有人 596 00:19:23,549 --> 00:19:24,589 YouTube上所有人 597 00:19:24,589 --> 00:19:28,190 都在疯狂炒作，股价飙升 598 00:19:28,630 --> 00:19:31,450 理解这些股票通常伴随着很高的风险 599 00:19:31,450 --> 00:19:33,630 通常它们的估值可能已经变得非常 600 00:19:33,630 --> 00:19:35,119 极度高估了对吧 601 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,779 此外如果大家都在谈论它 602 00:19:38,779 --> 00:19:44,589 并且投资它这通常意味着你更接近下行风险 603 00:19:44,589 --> 00:19:46,210 股票将面临重大下跌 604 00:19:46,210 --> 00:19:47,569 而非上涨情景 605 00:19:47,569 --> 00:19:48,569 在特定股票中 606 00:19:48,569 --> 00:19:51,460 没错我反复看到这种情况 607 00:19:51,460 --> 00:19:53,469 人们不会关注某只股票 608 00:19:56,808 --> 00:19:58,489 吸引更多关注 609 00:19:58,489 --> 00:19:59,009 更多关注 610 00:19:59,009 --> 00:20:00,628 更多人开始谈论它对吧 611 00:20:00,628 --> 00:20:01,429 结果你会发现 612 00:20:01,429 --> 00:20:02,930 看起来就像 613 00:20:02,930 --> 00:20:08,910 到那时它已成为各大金融网络热议话题 614 00:20:08,910 --> 00:20:12,599 因为收益难以获得 615 00:20:12,599 --> 00:20:13,799 因为你已经 616 00:20:13,799 --> 00:20:15,619 几乎所有人都在关注它 617 00:20:15,619 --> 00:20:18,000 所以这只股票不再隐蔽 618 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,900 大家都在谈论它对吧 619 00:20:19,900 --> 00:20:20,880 我可以举个好例子 620 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,500 即使是去年的英伟达 621 00:20:22,500 --> 00:20:22,940 没错 622 00:20:22,940 --> 00:20:23,480 我说 623 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,299 你知道英伟达股价其实没有太大波动 624 00:20:25,299 --> 00:20:26,799 尽管业绩持续向好 625 00:20:26,799 --> 00:20:32,089 原因在于英伟达去年的 hype 无比疯狂 626 00:20:32,089 --> 00:20:34,130 没错所有人都在谈论英伟达 627 00:20:34,130 --> 00:20:37,039 所以这不是什么秘密情况 628 00:20:37,039 --> 00:20:38,619 所有人都知道英伟达 629 00:20:38,619 --> 00:20:39,720 都知道业绩出色 630 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,099 现在业绩依然强劲 631 00:20:41,099 --> 00:20:44,429 但股票却毫无表现 632 00:20:44,429 --> 00:20:46,229 因为已经过度炒作过了 633 00:20:46,229 --> 00:20:48,288 它已经被广泛讨论过了 634 00:20:48,288 --> 00:20:49,828 再给你一个好例子 635 00:20:49,828 --> 00:20:51,628 Palantir公司 636 00:20:51,628 --> 00:20:55,650 我在2022年以7美元一股买入股票 637 00:20:55,650 --> 00:20:57,609 当时没人关注这只股票 638 00:20:57,609 --> 00:20:59,549 当我以6美元买入时 639 00:20:59,549 --> 00:21:02,730 7美元随便啦2022年时 640 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,099 然后股价涨到两百多 641 00:21:06,099 --> 00:21:08,720 从6美元涨到两百多 642 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,960 去年股价突破两百时 643 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,200 似乎人人都在谈论它 644 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,640 我记得他们不断在 645 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,079 如CNBC和彭博社 646 00:21:19,079 --> 00:21:20,240 这些媒体大幅报道 647 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,269 每个人都对这只股票有看法 648 00:21:22,269 --> 00:21:23,990 而且这很有趣因为 649 00:21:23,990 --> 00:21:24,430 字面意思 650 00:21:24,430 --> 00:21:26,349 你知道就在那时三四年之前 651 00:21:26,349 --> 00:21:28,049 几乎没人谈论过 652 00:21:28,049 --> 00:21:30,269 Palantir 是一只极度小众的股票 653 00:21:30,269 --> 00:21:32,250 也许我们 YouTube 上的几个人聊过 654 00:21:32,250 --> 00:21:33,579 还有少数人在 X 上提到 655 00:21:33,579 --> 00:21:35,079 然后突然在 656 00:21:35,079 --> 00:21:37,200 你知道去年股价超过两百时 657 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:38,400 人人都在谈论它 658 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,519 但市销率已经严重透支 659 00:21:40,519 --> 00:21:42,490 市销率被大幅拉高没错 660 00:21:42,490 --> 00:21:45,380 这让这只股票处境艰难 661 00:21:45,380 --> 00:21:47,599 现在股价停留在一百三十美元 662 00:21:47,599 --> 00:21:49,700 猜猜现在的数据比以往更好 663 00:21:49,700 --> 00:21:51,950 营收仍保持增长势头 664 00:21:51,950 --> 00:21:53,069 简直难以置信 665 00:21:53,069 --> 00:21:54,269 这家公司能做到的事 666 00:21:54,269 --> 00:21:57,240 但股价却从两百多跌到一百三十 667 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,660 因为它已经经历了疯狂的炒作阶段 668 00:22:00,660 --> 00:22:04,200 市盈率和市销率被推得太高 669 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:04,900 简直荒谬 670 00:22:04,900 --> 00:22:07,880 对了说到 Palantir 671 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:08,339 其实 672 00:22:08,339 --> 00:22:09,099 你知道的 673 00:22:09,099 --> 00:22:10,500 现在不是我最喜欢的买入时机 674 00:22:10,500 --> 00:22:12,500 但我其实不介意买入 675 00:22:12,500 --> 00:22:13,220 但需注意 676 00:22:13,220 --> 00:22:15,819 我去年大部分利润来自 Palantir 677 00:22:15,819 --> 00:22:17,710 当这只股票暴涨时 678 00:22:17,710 --> 00:22:19,390 所有人都在吹捧 679 00:22:19,390 --> 00:22:20,630 所有人都在谈论它 680 00:22:20,630 --> 00:22:21,430 我当时心想 681 00:22:21,430 --> 00:22:21,910 你知道的 682 00:22:21,910 --> 00:22:23,250 估值被严重透支 683 00:22:23,250 --> 00:22:25,240 所以我决定落袋为安 684 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,599 这正是一个典型案例 685 00:22:26,599 --> 00:22:26,880 呃 686 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,599 这在某种程度上类似 687 00:22:28,599 --> 00:22:30,559 远没有 Palantir 那么极端 688 00:22:30,559 --> 00:22:31,109 没错 689 00:22:31,109 --> 00:22:33,269 所以这只股票六美元 690 00:22:33,269 --> 00:22:36,190 2024年以六美元买入 SoFi 691 00:22:36,190 --> 00:22:41,230 去年峰值时股价涨到三十二美元左右 692 00:22:41,230 --> 00:22:42,250 这涨幅令人难以置信 693 00:22:42,250 --> 00:22:43,289 改变游戏规则 694 00:22:43,289 --> 00:22:44,509 改变人生 695 00:22:44,509 --> 00:22:47,890 如果你在六美元重仓投资 SoFi 696 00:22:47,890 --> 00:22:49,690 然后一年内涨到三十二美元 697 00:22:49,690 --> 00:22:51,950 就像那是改变人生的财富对吧 698 00:22:51,950 --> 00:22:54,809 但从那时起股票一直有些麻烦 699 00:22:54,809 --> 00:22:55,789 数字不好吗 700 00:22:55,789 --> 00:22:57,390 数字比以往任何时候都好 701 00:22:57,390 --> 00:22:59,660 但你知道市场情绪对吧 702 00:22:59,660 --> 00:23:01,200 而且围绕它有很多炒作 703 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,900 然后发生的事情就是很多人买入 704 00:23:03,900 --> 00:23:05,380 这是你需要理解的重要概念 705 00:23:05,380 --> 00:23:06,619 关于市场和运作机制 706 00:23:06,619 --> 00:23:09,640 这类事情会有大量人买入 707 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,609 股票在已经疯狂后继续上涨 708 00:23:12,609 --> 00:23:13,509 继续上涨 709 00:23:13,509 --> 00:23:18,130 发生的是这些人买入时 710 00:23:18,130 --> 00:23:18,970 你知道的 711 00:23:18,970 --> 00:23:21,569 在峰值或接近峰值价格 712 00:23:21,569 --> 00:23:23,079 股票开始下跌 713 00:23:23,079 --> 00:23:25,099 这些人通常是脆弱的多头 714 00:23:25,099 --> 00:23:27,059 他们并不真正了解公司 715 00:23:27,059 --> 00:23:28,059 然后他们卖出 716 00:23:28,059 --> 00:23:30,000 进一步增加抛售压力 717 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,220 随着股价继续下跌 718 00:23:31,220 --> 00:23:33,059 更多新手投资者感到恐慌 719 00:23:33,059 --> 00:23:36,150 假设你知道某人去年买得太晚 720 00:23:36,150 --> 00:23:37,250 三十一元 721 00:23:38,410 --> 00:23:38,920 好的 722 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:40,140 然后跌到二十九元 723 00:23:40,140 --> 00:23:41,640 他卖出对吧 724 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,680 接下来在二十九元买入的人处境堪忧 725 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,640 然后跌到二十七元 726 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:47,079 这简直糟透了 727 00:23:47,079 --> 00:23:47,759 我必须卖出 728 00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:50,119 然后下一个人也说必须卖出 729 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:51,599 形成多米诺效应 730 00:23:51,599 --> 00:23:52,779 所以就是这样 731 00:23:52,779 --> 00:23:54,980 我可以继续报喜数字 732 00:23:54,980 --> 00:23:55,460 对吧 733 00:23:55,460 --> 00:23:56,599 但在极短期 734 00:23:56,599 --> 00:23:59,960 因为很多人在二十二十五买入被套 735 00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:01,460 三十多价位 736 00:24:01,460 --> 00:24:04,460 短期内难以上涨 737 00:24:04,460 --> 00:24:06,000 这就是为什么 738 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,180 作为长期投资者 739 00:24:07,180 --> 00:24:08,539 必须保持长期视角 740 00:24:08,539 --> 00:24:12,329 短期走势由叙事和情绪驱动 741 00:24:12,329 --> 00:24:12,970 是否被过度炒作 742 00:24:12,970 --> 00:24:14,730 是否失去热度 743 00:24:14,730 --> 00:24:16,039 或者 744 00:24:16,039 --> 00:24:18,640 华尔街是否在该时段买入 745 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:19,799 还是集体抛售 746 00:24:19,799 --> 00:24:20,940 散户投资者 747 00:24:20,940 --> 00:24:21,359 交易员 748 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:22,119 他们在买入吗 749 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:22,240 在吗 750 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:22,940 他们在抛售吗 751 00:24:22,940 --> 00:24:25,259 当时是否在动量ETF上操作 752 00:24:25,259 --> 00:24:26,599 所有这些情况都是对的 753 00:24:26,599 --> 00:24:28,079 是否在进行逼空游戏 754 00:24:28,079 --> 00:24:28,480 巴拉巴拉 755 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:28,940 巴拉 756 00:24:28,940 --> 00:24:31,779 短期内有数百万种因素会影响股价 757 00:24:31,779 --> 00:24:33,349 他们关注长期 758 00:24:33,349 --> 00:24:35,230 长期收入增长 759 00:24:35,230 --> 00:24:38,109 每股收益和高利润率增长 760 00:24:38,109 --> 00:24:40,150 这就是我们长期讨论的内容 761 00:24:40,150 --> 00:24:43,470 好的，这将真正决定股票走势 762 00:24:43,470 --> 00:24:44,888 顺便说一句 763 00:24:44,888 --> 00:24:48,009 所以这是一个巨大的长期机会 764 00:24:48,009 --> 00:24:49,348 所以我十五美元 765 00:24:49,348 --> 00:24:50,279 我喜欢 766 00:24:50,279 --> 00:24:52,259 如果你看看我在公开账户买入的股份 767 00:24:52,259 --> 00:24:53,180 我持有股份 768 00:24:53,180 --> 00:24:54,700 三万股以693元购入 769 00:24:54,700 --> 00:24:55,599 698元 770 00:24:55,599 --> 00:24:57,039 0.3774 771 00:24:57,039 --> 00:24:59,869 而在公开账户中最贵的一批 772 00:24:59,869 --> 00:25:00,849 是四月的这一批 773 00:25:00,849 --> 00:25:03,210 2025年接近十二美元 774 00:25:03,210 --> 00:25:05,138 所以我观察到 775 00:25:05,138 --> 00:25:07,338 这里存在巨大的长期机会 776 00:25:07,338 --> 00:25:09,919 这就是我完全不想出售的原因 777 00:25:09,919 --> 00:25:11,890 我喜欢SOFA的发展方向 778 00:25:11,890 --> 00:25:14,940 只要安东尼·诺托在衰退期维持公司运营 779 00:25:14,940 --> 00:25:18,039 这家公司有潜力成为金融巨头 780 00:25:18,039 --> 00:25:20,059 当我们谈论金融巨头时 781 00:25:20,059 --> 00:25:24,180 指的是数百亿市值 782 00:25:24,180 --> 00:25:26,329 今天这家公司的市值 783 00:25:26,329 --> 00:25:29,109 大概在二十亿左右 784 00:25:29,109 --> 00:25:30,150 大致估算 785 00:25:30,150 --> 00:25:30,970 没什么 786 00:25:30,970 --> 00:25:33,779 与未来几年的发展相比微不足道 787 00:25:33,779 --> 00:25:34,299 我认为如此 788 00:25:34,299 --> 00:25:36,259 如果再次确保一切正常 789 00:25:36,259 --> 00:25:37,980 未来十年高水平运营这家公司 790 00:25:37,980 --> 00:25:39,849 这可能是一只改变人生的股票 791 00:25:39,849 --> 00:25:41,250 在金融领域 792 00:25:41,250 --> 00:25:45,650 在金融领域中 793 00:25:45,650 --> 00:25:46,690 这几乎是唯一一个 794 00:25:46,690 --> 00:25:47,230 好的 795 00:25:47,230 --> 00:25:48,329 第七点 796 00:25:48,329 --> 00:25:51,220 非常重要资产负债表 797 00:25:51,220 --> 00:25:54,200 你必须从宏观层面审查资产负债表 798 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,440 没错，特别是现金和投资部分 799 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,640 减去债务 800 00:25:58,640 --> 00:25:59,529 好的 801 00:25:59,529 --> 00:26:04,549 你要找那些理想情况下负债低且现金储备高的公司 802 00:26:04,549 --> 00:26:05,269 没错 803 00:26:05,269 --> 00:26:06,890 想象成一个人 804 00:26:06,890 --> 00:26:09,890 比如说 805 00:26:09,890 --> 00:26:10,589 堂兄王 806 00:26:10,589 --> 00:26:11,410 你对吧 807 00:26:11,410 --> 00:26:17,150 而你的堂兄在向你讲述他的财务状况 808 00:26:17,150 --> 00:26:18,230 然后他们说 809 00:26:18,230 --> 00:26:21,589 他们提到自己有八千美元的信用卡债务 810 00:26:21,589 --> 00:26:23,910 他们还提到刚申请了房贷 811 00:26:23,910 --> 00:26:28,318 并说刚花二万五千美元买了新车 812 00:26:28,318 --> 00:26:32,619 然后说只剩一千美元现金了 813 00:26:32,900 --> 00:26:33,700 你认为 814 00:26:33,700 --> 00:26:36,759 你对堂兄的印象会是 815 00:26:36,759 --> 00:26:38,388 你的印象会是 816 00:26:38,388 --> 00:26:39,749 他们活得太不像话了 817 00:26:39,749 --> 00:26:42,909 他们在给自己带来巨大财务风险 818 00:26:42,909 --> 00:26:44,749 他们有信用卡债务 819 00:26:44,749 --> 00:26:46,528 刚用 820 00:26:46,528 --> 00:26:47,730 现在又有房贷 821 00:26:47,730 --> 00:26:49,029 还买了这辆车 822 00:26:49,029 --> 00:26:50,049 刚买不久 823 00:26:50,049 --> 00:26:51,130 还是贷款买的 824 00:26:51,130 --> 00:26:53,339 只剩一千美元现金 825 00:26:53,339 --> 00:26:54,640 如果他们失业了会怎样 826 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,599 如果发生这种情况他们现在很冒险 827 00:26:58,599 --> 00:27:00,319 如果另一个堂兄来找你 828 00:27:00,319 --> 00:27:01,250 然后他说 829 00:27:01,250 --> 00:27:02,009 天啊 830 00:27:02,009 --> 00:27:03,950 我有十万美元的国债 831 00:27:03,950 --> 00:27:06,089 现在闲置着 832 00:27:06,089 --> 00:27:08,190 年收益4.5% 833 00:27:08,190 --> 00:27:12,460 还有五百万股票 834 00:27:13,099 --> 00:27:17,470 唯一的债务就是车贷 835 00:27:17,470 --> 00:27:20,309 车贷还剩一万 836 00:27:20,309 --> 00:27:23,039 这时候你会说兄弟 837 00:27:23,039 --> 00:27:24,839 他们的财务状况很好 838 00:27:24,839 --> 00:27:26,359 我完全信任他们 839 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:27,819 同样的道理适用于公司 840 00:27:27,819 --> 00:27:30,200 有些公司负债累累 841 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:31,980 几乎没有任何现金和投资 842 00:27:31,980 --> 00:27:33,460 这些公司风险很高 843 00:27:33,460 --> 00:27:35,430 如果经济恶化 844 00:27:35,430 --> 00:27:36,569 如果业务出现问题 845 00:27:36,569 --> 00:27:37,769 他们可能破产 846 00:27:37,769 --> 00:27:38,230 没错 847 00:27:38,230 --> 00:27:42,220 与此同时，还有一些公司拥有充足的现金储备 848 00:27:42,220 --> 00:27:44,619 优质的投资水平和低负债水平 849 00:27:44,619 --> 00:27:48,160 这使他们有机会回投业务发展 850 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,130 这赋予他们强大的市场地位 851 00:27:51,130 --> 00:27:53,890 在经济困境时期尤为明显 852 00:27:53,890 --> 00:27:54,890 这类情况 853 00:27:54,890 --> 00:27:56,849 因此资产负债表至关重要 854 00:27:56,849 --> 00:27:58,210 现金储备水平 855 00:27:58,210 --> 00:28:00,490 负债水平需保持低位 856 00:28:00,490 --> 00:28:02,609 追求高现金和优质投资 857 00:28:02,609 --> 00:28:03,549 理想状态下 858 00:28:03,549 --> 00:28:04,980 就像你所知道的 859 00:28:04,980 --> 00:28:07,039 接下来这位嘉宾 860 00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:07,859 第八位 861 00:28:07,859 --> 00:28:14,279 要寻找毛利率和净利率持续提升的公司 862 00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:14,819 没错 863 00:28:14,819 --> 00:28:18,180 这并不意味着每季度毛利率都上涨 864 00:28:18,180 --> 00:28:20,710 每季度净利率都上升 865 00:28:20,710 --> 00:28:25,430 但长期来看需关注公司利润率持续改善 866 00:28:25,430 --> 00:28:28,019 利润率的提升通常能 867 00:28:28,019 --> 00:28:31,849 反映企业是强势还是弱势地位 868 00:28:31,849 --> 00:28:33,630 还记得我们之前提到的SWOT分析 869 00:28:33,630 --> 00:28:34,490 优势 870 00:28:34,490 --> 00:28:35,049 劣势 871 00:28:35,049 --> 00:28:36,569 机会与威胁 872 00:28:36,569 --> 00:28:40,769 若公司长期呈现毛利率上升趋势 873 00:28:40,769 --> 00:28:42,210 净利率持续增长 874 00:28:42,210 --> 00:28:45,329 通常表明企业处于强势地位 875 00:28:45,329 --> 00:28:47,450 在更长的时间维度下 876 00:28:47,450 --> 00:28:49,890 看到公司毛利率下降 877 00:28:49,890 --> 00:28:51,130 净利率下滑 878 00:28:51,130 --> 00:28:53,440 通常意味着企业处于弱势 879 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,759 所有公司都会尽力赚取最大利润 880 00:28:56,759 --> 00:28:58,200 尽可能向客户收取费用 881 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,049 无论B2C企业 882 00:29:00,049 --> 00:29:01,670 B2B企业 883 00:29:01,670 --> 00:29:02,970 优质企业销售业务 884 00:29:02,970 --> 00:29:04,309 或企业面向消费者 885 00:29:04,309 --> 00:29:05,609 或是B2G企业 886 00:29:05,609 --> 00:29:07,429 企业向政府销售 887 00:29:07,429 --> 00:29:09,729 所有企业的目标都是最大化利润 888 00:29:09,729 --> 00:29:11,068 尽可能提高售价 889 00:29:11,068 --> 00:29:15,660 没错，若处于弱势地位则 890 00:29:15,660 --> 00:29:18,619 长期来看利润率将持续下降 891 00:29:18,619 --> 00:29:20,490 因为可能需要降价 892 00:29:20,490 --> 00:29:22,690 或增加员工以销售产品 893 00:29:22,690 --> 00:29:23,990 无论何种情况 894 00:29:23,990 --> 00:29:25,470 若处于强势地位 895 00:29:25,470 --> 00:29:28,240 将能持续提高价格 896 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,869 并有效控制运营成本 897 00:29:30,869 --> 00:29:32,730 这将有助于你的净利润率长期提升 898 00:29:32,730 --> 00:29:32,970 没错 899 00:29:32,970 --> 00:29:34,150 你处于有利地位 900 00:29:34,150 --> 00:29:34,890 所以我将展示给你 901 00:29:34,890 --> 00:29:38,880 一个毛利率长期持续增长的优秀公司案例 902 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:39,960 同时净利润率也在提升 903 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,599 实际上即将迎来爆发性增长 904 00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:44,609 这家公司在未来两到三年内 905 00:29:44,609 --> 00:29:49,000 这家公司是AMD 906 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,579 我们正在查看千禧股票网 907 00:29:50,579 --> 00:29:55,240 你可以清楚看到AMD的毛利率在此触底 908 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,759 此后持续稳步回升 909 00:29:56,759 --> 00:29:58,579 再次以季度为单位来看 910 00:29:58,579 --> 00:29:59,640 偶尔会有波动 911 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,529 要观察公司的长期趋势对吧 912 00:30:02,529 --> 00:30:06,750 AMD的净利润率在此触底后持续回升 913 00:30:06,750 --> 00:30:10,609 只需等待这家公司的净利润率 914 00:30:10,609 --> 00:30:13,398 未来几年将走向何方 915 00:30:13,398 --> 00:30:14,558 毛利率同样显著 916 00:30:14,558 --> 00:30:16,400 运营利润率也在提升 917 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:16,980 我是如何做到的 918 00:30:16,980 --> 00:30:19,319 我是如何获得这种认知的 919 00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:19,519 比如 920 00:30:19,519 --> 00:30:20,960 利润率将大幅增长 921 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:21,480 嗯 922 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,288 猜猜我过去几年做了大量AMD研究 923 00:30:25,288 --> 00:30:26,489 我发现 924 00:30:26,489 --> 00:30:28,909 CPU和GPU需求将对公司构成巨大利好 925 00:30:28,909 --> 00:30:29,929 未来数年持续强劲 926 00:30:29,929 --> 00:30:32,259 他们处于产品优势地位 927 00:30:32,259 --> 00:30:34,259 能够实现最高利润率 928 00:30:34,259 --> 00:30:37,059 这是该公司有史以来最佳利润率水平 929 00:30:37,059 --> 00:30:38,619 因为目前仅有 930 00:30:38,619 --> 00:30:39,779 另一个领域 931 00:30:39,779 --> 00:30:41,700 能获得大量芯片销售 932 00:30:41,700 --> 00:30:42,819 那就是英伟达 933 00:30:42,819 --> 00:30:45,460 而英伟达的利润率已是行业顶尖 934 00:30:45,460 --> 00:30:47,519 因此AMD与英伟达之间存在显著差距 935 00:30:47,519 --> 00:30:49,539 两者之间存在巨大差距 936 00:30:49,539 --> 00:30:53,809 AMD将持续提升利润率数年 937 00:30:53,809 --> 00:30:54,390 这不是 938 00:30:54,390 --> 00:30:55,750 单一领域现象 939 00:30:55,750 --> 00:30:57,349 或仅持续一年 940 00:30:57,349 --> 00:30:58,970 AMD的利润率将持续上升 941 00:30:58,970 --> 00:31:00,890 这意味着巨大机遇 942 00:31:00,890 --> 00:31:01,349 我的意思是 943 00:31:01,349 --> 00:31:03,849 这对公司绝对是重大利好 944 00:31:03,849 --> 00:31:04,769 净利润 945 00:31:04,769 --> 00:31:06,109 公司的每股收益 946 00:31:06,109 --> 00:31:07,730 猜猜人们会怎么想 947 00:31:07,730 --> 00:31:08,529 当我说到 948 00:31:08,529 --> 00:31:08,710 人们 949 00:31:08,710 --> 00:31:09,789 我说的是投资者 950 00:31:09,789 --> 00:31:11,009 尤其是华尔街的人 951 00:31:11,009 --> 00:31:15,250 他们喜欢为利润率增长且优秀的公司支付高价 952 00:31:15,250 --> 00:31:17,869 让人们最不安的事情之一 953 00:31:17,869 --> 00:31:21,670 华尔街对冲基金大量抛售股票的原因之一 954 00:31:22,750 --> 00:31:24,170 当他们看到利润率下降时 955 00:31:24,170 --> 00:31:25,309 当他们看到利润率下降时 956 00:31:25,309 --> 00:31:26,390 他们会感到恐慌 957 00:31:26,390 --> 00:31:28,970 因为发生的事情是 958 00:31:28,970 --> 00:31:30,990 他们假设利润率在下降 959 00:31:30,990 --> 00:31:32,809 而这是因为 960 00:31:32,809 --> 00:31:35,269 该业务正面临威胁 961 00:31:35,269 --> 00:31:37,159 所以出了问题 962 00:31:37,159 --> 00:31:39,259 该公司利润率下降 963 00:31:39,259 --> 00:31:40,980 这意味着赶紧退出 964 00:31:40,980 --> 00:31:42,700 因此会对股票施加抛售压力 965 00:31:42,700 --> 00:31:43,640 当利润率下降时 966 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:44,970 利润率上升 967 00:31:44,970 --> 00:31:46,450 通常意味着股价上涨 968 00:31:46,450 --> 00:31:47,329 利润率下降 969 00:31:47,329 --> 00:31:48,769 通常意味着股价下跌 970 00:31:48,769 --> 00:31:49,549 你可以 971 00:31:49,549 --> 00:31:50,529 你可以纵观整个过程 972 00:31:50,529 --> 00:31:51,670 许多股票在很长一段时间内 973 00:31:51,670 --> 00:31:52,690 这简直难以置信 974 00:31:52,690 --> 00:31:53,230 它的运作方式 975 00:31:53,230 --> 00:31:53,720 好的 976 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:54,200 不 977 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:54,680 顺便说一句 978 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,339 这是一个巨大的长期机会 979 00:31:56,339 --> 00:31:56,799 仍然 980 00:31:56,799 --> 00:31:57,819 你知道的 981 00:31:57,819 --> 00:32:00,900 股价在未来十二个月内将有巨大波动 982 00:32:00,900 --> 00:32:02,339 你会看到一些剧烈波动 983 00:32:02,339 --> 00:32:03,980 即使是近期的波动也很剧烈 984 00:32:03,980 --> 00:32:09,099 我认为最近一周左右该股在53左右见顶 985 00:32:09,099 --> 00:32:10,819 然后跌至45 986 00:32:10,819 --> 00:32:13,200 将会出现大幅下跌 987 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,339 也会有疯狂的上涨 988 00:32:15,339 --> 00:32:18,288 当这只股票启动暴涨行情时 989 00:32:18,288 --> 00:32:18,969 我将实际分享 990 00:32:18,969 --> 00:32:21,528 我认为稍后视频中会提到AMD的预测 991 00:32:21,528 --> 00:32:25,690 你会看到为什么该股仍存在巨大的长期机会 992 00:32:25,690 --> 00:32:26,170 好的 993 00:32:26,170 --> 00:32:27,150 第九点 994 00:32:27,150 --> 00:32:30,880 G V D我一直在频道里强调这一点 995 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,000 增长价值股和分红股 996 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,869 你的投资组合必须以成长股为主 997 00:32:36,869 --> 00:32:39,190 价值股和分红股 998 00:32:39,190 --> 00:32:40,569 它们各有其作用 999 00:32:44,109 --> 00:32:46,138 就像它们是热门选择 1000 00:32:46,138 --> 00:32:48,019 所有人都想买入成长股 1001 00:32:48,019 --> 00:32:49,519 不会为它们支付过高价格 1002 00:32:49,519 --> 00:32:51,578 这通常是风险偏好型市场的表现 1003 00:32:51,578 --> 00:32:53,039 人们愿意承担风险 1004 00:32:53,039 --> 00:32:54,680 某些市场环境 1005 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,640 价值股将成为投资重点 1006 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:57,839 分红股也将成为投资对象 1007 00:32:57,839 --> 00:33:00,920 这通常是袋鼠市场或熊市行情 1008 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,750 没错，每只狗都有自己的日子 1009 00:33:04,750 --> 00:33:08,269 每只股票都会在特定时期闪耀 1010 00:33:08,269 --> 00:33:13,930 分红投资者靠股息稳赚不赔 1011 00:33:13,930 --> 00:33:16,769 能在崩盘时以极低价格买入成长股 1012 00:33:16,769 --> 00:33:18,470 他们看起来就像天才 1013 00:33:18,470 --> 00:33:19,880 看我厉害吧 1014 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,640 其他时期则是成长投资者 1015 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,500 成长投资者看向我 1016 00:33:23,500 --> 00:33:25,680 我现在在这些成长股上赚得盆满钵满 1017 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:26,410 没错 1018 00:33:26,410 --> 00:33:29,250 我信仰成长、价值与分红股 1019 00:33:29,250 --> 00:33:31,529 我不做单一策略投资者 1020 00:33:31,529 --> 00:33:33,490 真正优秀的拳击手 1021 00:33:33,490 --> 00:33:34,950 不会只出直拳 1022 00:33:34,950 --> 00:33:37,230 掌握多种进攻手段 1023 00:33:37,230 --> 00:33:39,868 懂得防守技巧 1024 00:33:39,868 --> 00:33:42,409 这就是构建优质投资组合的原因 1025 00:33:42,409 --> 00:33:43,848 整体涵盖成长、价值、分红 1026 00:33:43,848 --> 00:33:46,470 这些都应成为组合组成部分 1027 00:33:46,470 --> 00:33:47,769 当你获得分红时 1028 00:33:47,769 --> 00:33:50,630 那些分红和成长股表现不佳 1029 00:33:50,630 --> 00:33:54,319 将定期到账的股息收入 1030 00:33:54,319 --> 00:33:57,099 以低价重新投入成长股 1031 00:33:59,539 --> 00:34:00,240 并非它们的问题 1032 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,440 所有人聚焦成长股估值疯狂 1033 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,019 将股息收入 1034 00:34:04,019 --> 00:34:05,039 直接投入价值股 1035 00:34:05,039 --> 00:34:06,049 和分红股 1036 00:34:06,049 --> 00:34:06,809 而你 1037 00:34:06,809 --> 00:34:09,670 股息将持续复利增长 1038 00:34:09,670 --> 00:34:12,949 尤其是能提升每股收益的优质分红公司 1039 00:34:12,949 --> 00:34:14,719 随着时间推移 1040 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,179 这是公开持仓数据 1041 00:34:16,179 --> 00:34:18,519 每周在私密群更新公开账户 1042 00:34:18,519 --> 00:34:19,920 截至五月八日 1043 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:20,320 没错 1044 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,340 这就是公开持仓概况 1045 00:34:22,340 --> 00:34:24,119 私有群组里的每个人都能再次看到这个 1046 00:34:24,119 --> 00:34:24,900 那里有个置顶评论 1047 00:34:24,900 --> 00:34:27,500 如果你想在我们关闭新成员加入前加入私有群 1048 00:34:27,500 --> 00:34:28,929 但看看这个 1049 00:34:28,929 --> 00:34:29,989 这是一次公开计数 1050 00:34:29,989 --> 00:34:30,369 这里 1051 00:34:30,369 --> 00:34:34,068 我构建了一个涵盖所有类型股票的投资组合 1052 00:34:34,068 --> 00:34:35,679 Right Amb 是一只成长股 1053 00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:37,579 Meta 是一只高股息价值成长股 1054 00:34:37,579 --> 00:34:39,900 因为它估值低廉且派发股息 1055 00:34:39,900 --> 00:34:41,159 但它同样具备强劲增长 1056 00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:42,539 营收增长率达百分之三十 1057 00:34:42,539 --> 00:34:43,460 再加上那个 1058 00:34:43,460 --> 00:34:44,880 亚马逊是成长股 1059 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:45,840 芝士蛋糕工厂 1060 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:47,750 这是一只价值型高股息股 1061 00:34:47,750 --> 00:34:50,230 Salesforce 是一只价值型成长股 1062 00:34:50,230 --> 00:34:52,070 耐克是价值型高股息股 1063 00:34:52,070 --> 00:34:54,050 美国运通是价值型高股息股 1064 00:34:54,050 --> 00:34:56,420 达美乐是价值型高股息股 1065 00:34:56,420 --> 00:34:57,880 Honest 是一只价值股 1066 00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,280 Celsius 是成长股 1067 00:34:59,280 --> 00:34:59,940 Palantir 1068 00:34:59,940 --> 00:35:00,679 一只成长股 1069 00:35:00,679 --> 00:35:02,760 Paypal 是价值型高股息服务股 1070 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:03,500 现在是成长期 1071 00:35:03,500 --> 00:35:04,670 谷歌的成长 1072 00:35:04,670 --> 00:35:06,028 Sofi的成长 1073 00:35:06,028 --> 00:35:08,068 Revolve 是成长型价值股 1074 00:35:08,068 --> 00:35:08,688 这个很有趣 1075 00:35:08,688 --> 00:35:09,628 因为他们营收增长了 1076 00:35:09,628 --> 00:35:10,628 两位数百分比 1077 00:35:10,628 --> 00:35:12,628 但实际交易于价值型市盈率 1078 00:35:12,628 --> 00:35:16,519 Pon 那只股票实际上兼具成长与价值属性 1079 00:35:16,519 --> 00:35:17,239 看前向市盈率 1080 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:18,079 M on elf 1081 00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:19,380 但它增长惊人 1082 00:35:19,380 --> 00:35:20,440 所以这是成长价值股 1083 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,619 而Foo 更多是投机性投资 1084 00:35:22,619 --> 00:35:23,739 所以我并非单一维度 1085 00:35:23,739 --> 00:35:25,300 我不全押成长股 1086 00:35:25,300 --> 00:35:26,340 并非全投价值股 1087 00:35:26,340 --> 00:35:27,659 并非全选高股息股 1088 00:35:27,659 --> 00:35:29,309 我布局均衡 1089 00:35:29,309 --> 00:35:31,389 这才是优秀投资组合的构建方式 1090 00:35:31,389 --> 00:35:33,510 这才是优秀投资组合的构建方式 1091 00:35:33,510 --> 00:35:34,369 总体而言 1092 00:35:34,369 --> 00:35:35,309 这里混合配置 1093 00:35:35,309 --> 00:35:40,420 第十条：当风险回报有利时卖出 1094 00:35:40,420 --> 00:35:42,440 不是在大幅上涨时卖出 1095 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,360 这是一个重大错误 1096 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,528 人们在股市中犯的错误 1097 00:35:45,528 --> 00:35:46,608 我们会大幅上涨 1098 00:35:46,608 --> 00:35:47,108 好的 1099 00:35:47,108 --> 00:35:47,789 我不知道 1100 00:35:47,789 --> 00:35:48,389 你知道的 1101 00:35:48,389 --> 00:35:49,900 增长百分之一百 1102 00:35:49,900 --> 00:35:50,460 增长百分之二百 1103 00:35:50,460 --> 00:35:51,059 无论多少金额 1104 00:35:51,059 --> 00:35:54,139 没错，他们因为大幅上涨而卖出，这确实是个错误 1105 00:35:54,139 --> 00:35:56,139 当我还是新投资者时，犯过无数次这样的错误 1106 00:35:56,139 --> 00:35:57,579 在我投资的最初几年 1107 00:35:57,579 --> 00:35:58,630 我买入了一只股票 1108 00:35:58,630 --> 00:36:01,210 它迅速上涨了20%到40% 1109 00:36:01,210 --> 00:36:01,650 你知道的 1110 00:36:01,650 --> 00:36:02,130 然后我说 1111 00:36:02,130 --> 00:36:02,690 天啊 1112 00:36:02,690 --> 00:36:03,630 这赚了太多钱 1113 00:36:03,630 --> 00:36:04,530 涨幅太大了 1114 00:36:04,530 --> 00:36:05,849 不能再涨了 1115 00:36:05,849 --> 00:36:08,378 然后我就以20%的利润卖出 1116 00:36:08,378 --> 00:36:10,778 错失了未来一两年两倍的收益 1117 00:36:10,778 --> 00:36:12,398 现在 1118 00:36:12,398 --> 00:36:16,000 不要因为股价大幅上涨就卖出股票 1119 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,440 你需要评估这家公司的风险收益 1120 00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,679 你需要对公司进行财务预测 1121 00:36:21,679 --> 00:36:23,809 因此你可以用电子表格详细分析 1122 00:36:23,809 --> 00:36:25,750 或者我们可以使用 1123 00:36:25,750 --> 00:36:27,369 名为千乘股票的工具 1124 00:36:27,369 --> 00:36:29,510 我们自动为你输入数据 1125 00:36:29,510 --> 00:36:31,010 从2026年开始 1126 00:36:31,010 --> 00:36:33,989 然后基于预期进行分析 1127 00:36:33,989 --> 00:36:35,869 接着你可以调整增长率 1128 00:36:35,869 --> 00:36:37,599 没错，对于AMD 1129 00:36:37,599 --> 00:36:38,820 这是一只大幅上涨的股票 1130 00:36:38,820 --> 00:36:39,500 我今天在查看 1131 00:36:39,500 --> 00:36:42,179 我认为过去一年上涨了267% 1132 00:36:42,179 --> 00:36:42,858 没错 1133 00:36:42,858 --> 00:36:44,838 我对卖出AMD毫无兴趣 1134 00:36:44,838 --> 00:36:45,900 为什么呢 1135 00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:49,239 根据我在千乘的基准预测 1136 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:50,400 我们可以运行牛市情景 1137 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,199 基准情景和熊市情景 1138 00:36:52,199 --> 00:36:52,818 没错 1139 00:36:52,818 --> 00:36:55,559 基于我对AMD的基准预测 1140 00:36:55,559 --> 00:37:01,039 这份报告未来几年仍可能带来30%的收益 1141 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,420 股票价格可能涨到一千美元 1142 00:37:03,420 --> 00:37:04,059 此外 1143 00:37:04,059 --> 00:37:06,289 这就是我不卖AMD的原因 1144 00:37:06,289 --> 00:37:06,849 就像 1145 00:37:06,849 --> 00:37:08,489 如果我只是在想比如 1146 00:37:08,489 --> 00:37:08,769 哦 1147 00:37:08,769 --> 00:37:09,510 它涨了很多 1148 00:37:09,510 --> 00:37:10,769 我要卖掉这只股票 1149 00:37:10,769 --> 00:37:12,650 但我在考虑数字 1150 00:37:12,650 --> 00:37:14,849 这背后的数学逻辑 1151 00:37:14,849 --> 00:37:17,630 而我的计算显示AMD将涨到一千美元 1152 00:37:17,630 --> 00:37:19,030 但这并不意味着一定成功 1153 00:37:19,030 --> 00:37:22,480 但我的研究数据表明AMD会达到这个价位 1154 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,278 所以我必须继续持有AMD 1155 00:37:25,278 --> 00:37:25,679 因为 1156 00:37:25,679 --> 00:37:25,918 是的 1157 00:37:25,918 --> 00:37:26,579 它涨了很多 1158 00:37:26,579 --> 00:37:28,159 过去一年上涨了267% 1159 00:37:28,159 --> 00:37:28,898 或者类似的情况 1160 00:37:28,898 --> 00:37:30,409 但前方还有很长的路 1161 00:37:30,409 --> 00:37:32,750 包括股票涨到一千美元以上 1162 00:37:32,750 --> 00:37:34,050 如果我的看涨情景实现 1163 00:37:34,050 --> 00:37:35,949 而看涨情景本就概率较低 1164 00:37:35,949 --> 00:37:39,639 未来几年股价将突破两千元 1165 00:37:39,639 --> 00:37:42,159 没错，即使按照AMD的看跌情景 1166 00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:44,880 短期内仍可能跑赢标普500五百点 1167 00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,449 或者至少表现得相当诱人 1168 00:37:48,449 --> 00:37:52,760 这就是我继续持有AMD股票的原因 1169 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,059 不要自作聪明 1170 00:37:55,059 --> 00:37:56,860 顺便说一下新房子有蒸汽房 1171 00:37:56,860 --> 00:37:57,579 我超爱了 1172 00:37:57,579 --> 00:37:58,820 给自己装个蒸汽房吧 1173 00:37:58,820 --> 00:37:59,289 好的 1174 00:37:59,289 --> 00:38:00,750 不要自作聪明 1175 00:38:00,750 --> 00:38:02,309 市场上太多人这样做了 1176 00:38:02,309 --> 00:38:04,480 别玩杠杆 1177 00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:05,380 我不管什么 1178 00:38:05,380 --> 00:38:06,639 他们给的什么比例 1179 00:38:06,639 --> 00:38:08,199 哦他们只给6% 1180 00:38:08,199 --> 00:38:09,039 别这么做 1181 00:38:09,039 --> 00:38:09,820 不要用杠杆 1182 00:38:09,820 --> 00:38:10,860 别被诱惑 1183 00:38:10,860 --> 00:38:11,659 好吧 1184 00:38:11,659 --> 00:38:12,960 不要期权 1185 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,760 尤其是你还不熟悉市场 1186 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:15,440 对吧 1187 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:20,039 如果从对冲投资组合的角度我理解 1188 00:38:20,039 --> 00:38:21,039 但大多数情况下 1189 00:38:21,039 --> 00:38:25,019 别在期权上玩花样也别投机取巧 1190 00:38:25,019 --> 00:38:26,320 做真实研究 1191 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:27,059 计算你的数据 1192 00:38:27,059 --> 00:38:28,139 运行你的预测 1193 00:38:28,139 --> 00:38:31,378 别找捷径想快速获利 1194 00:38:31,378 --> 00:38:33,659 只需明白时间站在你这边 1195 00:38:33,659 --> 00:38:35,139 接下来的五年十年 1196 00:38:35,139 --> 00:38:35,518 十五 1197 00:38:35,518 --> 00:38:36,259 二十年 1198 00:38:36,259 --> 00:38:39,889 你将能够建立一个庞大的投资组合 1199 00:38:39,889 --> 00:38:41,349 回头看你可能会说 1200 00:38:41,349 --> 00:38:41,949 天啊 1201 00:38:41,949 --> 00:38:42,829 简直太疯狂了 1202 00:38:42,829 --> 00:38:46,440 我们真的成功做到了对吧 1203 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,920 今天的公开账户是一个约四百万美元的投资组合 1204 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:51,920 五年后 1205 00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,719 我认为这个投资组合会达到 1206 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,780 轻松超过一千万元 1207 00:38:56,780 --> 00:38:58,659 如果不是更大的十倍数字 1208 00:38:58,659 --> 00:38:59,219 对吧 1209 00:38:59,219 --> 00:39:01,300 所以要专注于长期目标 1210 00:39:01,300 --> 00:39:05,099 不要被今天、今年、这个月之类的事物干扰 1211 00:39:05,099 --> 00:39:05,550 好的 1212 00:39:05,550 --> 00:39:07,929 如果你想将投资知识提升到更高水平 1213 00:39:07,929 --> 00:39:09,429 点击下方评论申请 1214 00:39:09,429 --> 00:39:10,190 加入私密群组 1215 00:39:10,190 --> 00:39:11,829 获取所有课程资料 1216 00:39:11,829 --> 00:39:13,150 我可以在这里教你一切 1217 00:39:13,150 --> 00:39:14,699 如果你喜欢这类视频 1218 00:39:14,699 --> 00:39:18,179 你会非常享受加入我们的私密群组并学习这些高级课程 1219 00:39:18,179 --> 00:39:21,000 此外还能加入我们的私密Discord聊天室 1220 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,800 此外访问千倍x.com 1221 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,139 我在视频中展示了许多功能 1222 00:39:24,139 --> 00:39:26,960 你需要访问千倍x.com并请注意 1223 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,539 我们的私密群组即将关闭新成员加入 1224 00:39:29,539 --> 00:39:31,539 所以下方评论已置顶 1225 00:39:31,539 --> 00:39:32,800 如果你想加入我们 1226 00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:33,400 衷心祝福 1227 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:34,460 祝你度过美好一天
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