Ai泡沫会不会破裂

1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:01,980
昨天美股半导体暴跌

2
00:00:01,980 --> 00:00:03,980
把很多A股的兄弟吓坏了啊

3
00:00:03,980 --> 00:00:05,320
说这家伙不得了了

4
00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:07,689
周一那不得吃碗大面啊

5
00:00:07,689 --> 00:00:09,528
哈这个面可能有点大

6
00:00:09,528 --> 00:00:10,868
但是你长期来看

7
00:00:10,868 --> 00:00:12,388
AI的趋势不会变

8
00:00:12,388 --> 00:00:14,069
AI有没有泡沫呢

9
00:00:14,069 --> 00:00:15,519
肯定有你

10
00:00:15,519 --> 00:00:18,120
比如说啊像去年纳德七姐妹啊

11
00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,260
这些AI的头部公司总共的利润才5000亿

12
00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:23,329
但是呢他的投入目标是8000个亿

13
00:00:23,329 --> 00:00:25,190
那中间三星安逸怎么解决呢

14
00:00:25,190 --> 00:00:28,210
首先第一个这些所有公司基本上都不分红了啊

15
00:00:28,210 --> 00:00:30,489
除了苹果以外都没有分红能力了

16
00:00:30,489 --> 00:00:31,399
没钱了

17
00:00:31,399 --> 00:00:33,579
然后第二个呢都开始发债了

18
00:00:33,579 --> 00:00:34,399
你看谷歌

19
00:00:34,399 --> 00:00:36,460
谷歌刚融了800个亿

20
00:00:36,859 --> 00:00:39,119
伯格切尔哈撒维还给他借了100个亿啊

21
00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:41,340
不过他博格切哈大维3800亿

22
00:00:41,340 --> 00:00:42,780
借他100亿不多

23
00:00:43,179 --> 00:00:44,020
原因是什么呢

24
00:00:44,020 --> 00:00:46,039
因为他买国债的话是四个点

25
00:00:46,039 --> 00:00:47,460
然后谷歌给他六个点

26
00:00:47,460 --> 00:00:49,880
他比国债多个四五十%

27
00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,128
那博格下海维肯定很开心吧

28
00:00:52,128 --> 00:00:54,009
而且呢他又从欧洲啊

29
00:00:54,009 --> 00:00:55,249
日本啊到处借钱

30
00:00:55,249 --> 00:00:59,890
相当于谷歌过去的这几十年一支分红回购啊

31
00:00:59,890 --> 00:01:00,670
忽然间不分红

32
00:01:00,670 --> 00:01:01,509
只是发债了

33
00:01:01,509 --> 00:01:02,890
然后甲骨文也是

34
00:01:02,890 --> 00:01:04,430
然后呢亚马逊也是

35
00:01:04,430 --> 00:01:05,609
然后卖菜也是

36
00:01:05,609 --> 00:01:10,150
基本上所有的科技巨头哈都是借钱啊

37
00:01:10,150 --> 00:01:12,569
然后增发股份发债啊

38
00:01:12,569 --> 00:01:14,209
就是没有钱分红回购

39
00:01:14,209 --> 00:01:15,090
这说明啥嘞

40
00:01:15,090 --> 00:01:18,409
大家都把这个钱啊全部砸向这个硬件了

41
00:01:18,409 --> 00:01:20,189
那对于硬件公司呢受益了哈

42
00:01:20,189 --> 00:01:21,129
无论是存储啊

43
00:01:21,129 --> 00:01:22,349
CPUGPU啊啊

44
00:01:22,349 --> 00:01:23,609
都是能赚到培养钵满

45
00:01:23,609 --> 00:01:25,370
但这个势力不可持续啊

46
00:01:25,370 --> 00:01:27,489
因为当那个钱越来越贵的时候

47
00:01:27,489 --> 00:01:29,049
那这些需求方会怎么想呢

48
00:01:29,049 --> 00:01:30,590
那我要不就自己研发哈

49
00:01:30,590 --> 00:01:31,759
要不我就去压价

50
00:01:31,759 --> 00:01:33,759
最终的话一定会压价的

51
00:01:33,759 --> 00:01:34,478
大家想啊

52
00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:37,359
随着这个资金成本的增加

53
00:01:37,359 --> 00:01:38,239
他不压价

54
00:01:38,239 --> 00:01:40,439
他自己又会放慢脚步啊

55
00:01:40,439 --> 00:01:42,040
他就发现他宁可放慢脚步

56
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:42,640
他也不想压我

57
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:43,799
昨天我看了一个报道

58
00:01:43,799 --> 00:01:46,859
就是20多匹克就号召行业所有人呐

59
00:01:46,859 --> 00:01:48,359
不要这么激进的投资哈

60
00:01:48,359 --> 00:01:50,129
你看他是增长最快的

61
00:01:50,129 --> 00:01:53,129
是现在一个月的话百亿美金的收入啊

62
00:01:53,129 --> 00:01:55,659
今年的话当正营利和盈盈利的情况下

63
00:01:55,659 --> 00:01:57,319
他还呼吁大家说减少啊

64
00:01:57,319 --> 00:01:58,420
放慢节奏啊

65
00:01:58,420 --> 00:02:00,019
不要把这个成本抬的太高

66
00:02:00,019 --> 00:02:00,700
为什么呢

67
00:02:00,700 --> 00:02:03,219
因为你像存储七八十%的净利润啊

68
00:02:03,219 --> 00:02:05,040
英伟达五六十%的净利润

69
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,540
你这个东西都钱都让他赚去了

70
00:02:07,540 --> 00:02:09,060
那行业里边的人那肯定不高兴

71
00:02:09,060 --> 00:02:10,900
那那那黄仁勋进去

72
00:02:10,900 --> 00:02:14,039
就想联合所有的这个半导体上下油啊

73
00:02:14,039 --> 00:02:15,598
要不就是猛投资啊

74
00:02:15,598 --> 00:02:16,459
给小弟们投钱

75
00:02:16,459 --> 00:02:17,199
占股份

76
00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:18,199
占话语权啊

77
00:02:18,199 --> 00:02:20,639
要不就是给这个台积电和三星海力士呢啊

78
00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,550
联合天天喝酒吃炸鸡

79
00:02:22,550 --> 00:02:23,310
为啥呀

80
00:02:23,310 --> 00:02:24,150
就统一阵营

81
00:02:24,150 --> 00:02:25,310
统一战线啊

82
00:02:25,310 --> 00:02:26,629
不要轻易的降价哈

83
00:02:26,629 --> 00:02:29,289
把这个高毛利高净率持续下去

84
00:02:29,289 --> 00:02:31,069
让这些冤大头买单

85
00:02:31,069 --> 00:02:32,129
让数据都去买单

86
00:02:32,129 --> 00:02:34,088
所以黄瑞军他这个想法很好

87
00:02:34,088 --> 00:02:35,989
但是你这个做法做到最后是

88
00:02:35,989 --> 00:02:37,889
如果你的客户都负债累累

89
00:02:37,889 --> 00:02:39,620
都都都都最后是吧

90
00:02:39,620 --> 00:02:40,479
这个有些不太太高

91
00:02:40,479 --> 00:02:41,800
那光靠你赚钱也不行

92
00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:43,159
所以这个生态也不可持续

93
00:02:43,159 --> 00:02:44,740
那这段一定会有平衡点哈

94
00:02:44,740 --> 00:02:46,780
要不就是上位硬件厂家啊

95
00:02:46,780 --> 00:02:48,259
随着这个增速下滑

96
00:02:48,259 --> 00:02:49,340
开始降价啊

97
00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:50,900
这个阵营开始松动啊

98
00:02:50,900 --> 00:02:53,680
要不就是这个啊这数据中心啊减少投入

99
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,319
那肯定会有一个方法说

100
00:02:55,319 --> 00:02:56,860
如果说这些纳粹前辈

101
00:02:56,860 --> 00:02:59,180
他们的净利润不支撑投入的话

102
00:02:59,180 --> 00:03:00,800
那做到最后他们也维持不下去

103
00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,759
所以AI的这种泡沫呢

104
00:03:02,759 --> 00:03:05,469
它一定会有一个泡的可能性

105
00:03:05,469 --> 00:03:09,019
但是呢一两年内这个趋势呢

106
00:03:09,019 --> 00:03:10,378
为什么还是很难改变啊

107
00:03:10,378 --> 00:03:11,459
又因为他已经砸下去了

108
00:03:11,459 --> 00:03:12,618
他已经规划出去了是吧

109
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:15,618
每家都想好了怎么投哈

110
00:03:15,618 --> 00:03:16,818
订单都已经交了哈

111
00:03:16,818 --> 00:03:19,729
这个存储的这个现在已经到了27年底了

112
00:03:19,729 --> 00:03:21,210
那即使说他们减少投入

113
00:03:21,210 --> 00:03:22,689
也也要到2028年了

114
00:03:22,689 --> 00:03:24,830
那这两年半导体的日子肯定还是好过的

115
00:03:24,830 --> 00:03:28,199
但是未来的增速啊肯定不会这么快了是吧

116
00:03:28,199 --> 00:03:30,379
而且呢随着这个科技的进步呢

117
00:03:30,379 --> 00:03:32,740
他很多这种技术的变革也会出来啊

118
00:03:32,740 --> 00:03:36,588
我看昨天他说这个要减少对存储的利用啊

119
00:03:36,588 --> 00:03:38,628
就是优惠达说嘛怎么减少啊

120
00:03:38,628 --> 00:03:41,468
包括股票现在也在开发所有的这些啊

121
00:03:41,468 --> 00:03:44,218
用用存储用的量大的公司呢都在想法子

122
00:03:44,218 --> 00:03:46,598
怎么样减少这个存储的使用量

123
00:03:46,598 --> 00:03:47,639
降低下成本

124
00:03:47,639 --> 00:03:49,159
这个当大家都去研究的时候

125
00:03:49,159 --> 00:03:50,479
肯定会有一种方法出来

126
00:03:50,479 --> 00:03:51,560
而这个时候技术变革呢

127
00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,629
会让那些不是当转型的公司呢

128
00:03:54,629 --> 00:03:56,349
开始这个出现利润下滑

129
00:03:56,349 --> 00:03:56,849
对吧

130
00:03:56,849 --> 00:03:58,030
还有一个下游啊

131
00:03:58,030 --> 00:04:00,050
有很多兄弟说哪下游啊

132
00:04:00,050 --> 00:04:01,050
寒气冬天啊

133
00:04:01,050 --> 00:04:02,250
这种公司啊

134
00:04:02,250 --> 00:04:03,849
现在这个还是高速增长啊

135
00:04:03,849 --> 00:04:04,930
啊不可替代啊

136
00:04:04,930 --> 00:04:06,250
不存在不可替代啊

137
00:04:06,250 --> 00:04:08,599
你像具备核心技术的这种啊

138
00:04:08,599 --> 00:04:09,360
迈威尔啊

139
00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:10,819
然后包括博通啊

140
00:04:10,819 --> 00:04:12,180
都能暴跌是吧

141
00:04:12,180 --> 00:04:13,120
到现在估值的话

142
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,710
动态市盈率也只有30倍左右是吧

143
00:04:15,710 --> 00:04:17,189
你按照远期市盈率也差不多

144
00:04:17,189 --> 00:04:18,750
那你说一两百倍的300倍

145
00:04:18,750 --> 00:04:19,790
没有几种含量的公式

146
00:04:19,790 --> 00:04:20,870
他怎么可能持续呢

147
00:04:20,870 --> 00:04:21,230
对不对

148
00:04:21,230 --> 00:04:22,970
那第二个呢就是大家觉得啊

149
00:04:22,970 --> 00:04:24,389
我们的生产制造啊之类的

150
00:04:24,389 --> 00:04:26,718
实际上随AI越发达

151
00:04:26,718 --> 00:04:28,959
对制造的要求呢反而越低了

152
00:04:28,959 --> 00:04:29,418
那为啥呢

153
00:04:29,418 --> 00:04:31,250
因为你自动化包括这些啊

154
00:04:31,250 --> 00:04:32,550
集成度越来越高的话

155
00:04:32,550 --> 00:04:34,050
那这个事呢肯定越好

156
00:04:34,050 --> 00:04:34,870
越来越好解决嘛

157
00:04:34,870 --> 00:04:36,089
因为你回到最后啊

158
00:04:36,089 --> 00:04:38,939
最终你你你流水线模式是最简单的啊

159
00:04:38,939 --> 00:04:41,379
只不过是人工未来会完全替代的话

160
00:04:41,379 --> 00:04:43,060
那谁的这种AI程度高啊

161
00:04:43,060 --> 00:04:44,040
谁的自动化程度高

162
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,259
谁都会受益嘛啊而且呢那个有资源的国家呢

163
00:04:47,259 --> 00:04:48,959
他反而更啊更有优势

164
00:04:48,959 --> 00:04:51,310
因为做到最后不就是上面的能源吧

165
00:04:51,310 --> 00:04:54,129
因为所有东西最后还是资源还是能源对吧

166
00:04:54,129 --> 00:04:57,019
能源哈加AI加自动化

167
00:04:57,019 --> 00:04:58,480
这才是真正的霸主啊

168
00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,379
所以你说今天AI泡沫

169
00:05:00,379 --> 00:05:01,399
AI泡沫大不大呢

170
00:05:01,399 --> 00:05:02,360
肯定很大

171
00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:03,240
但是有些公司大

172
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:04,240
有些公司不大啊

173
00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:05,540
就像现在暴跌

174
00:05:05,540 --> 00:05:07,000
那苹果谷歌也没怎么跌呀

175
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:07,939
哈哈对不对

176
00:05:07,939 --> 00:05:09,639
所以实际上你做了最后

177
00:05:09,639 --> 00:05:12,149
你会发现真正能够活下来的就是

178
00:05:12,149 --> 00:05:14,689
第一呢就是技术护城河深啊

179
00:05:14,689 --> 00:05:16,250
第二个呢现金流好啊

180
00:05:16,250 --> 00:05:19,129
第三个呢哈创始人呢看得比较远

181
00:05:19,129 --> 00:05:21,220
然后呢不会轻易的上头啊

182
00:05:21,220 --> 00:05:23,699
第四个呢就是啊一看这个行业哈

183
00:05:23,699 --> 00:05:25,019
发现危机的时候哈

184
00:05:25,019 --> 00:05:26,230
及时踩踩刹车

185
00:05:26,230 --> 00:05:27,870
只有这种公司才能活下来啊

186
00:05:27,870 --> 00:05:32,040
至于说啊这个all in梭哈加杠杆的那些公司

187
00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:33,399
他总有一天会爆的

188
00:05:33,399 --> 00:05:34,600
大家觉得呢

共 5 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕