BV1TU9ZB5EuK · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:02,220 --> 00:00:04,719 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 2 00:00:04,719 --> 00:00:06,339 接下来的四节课 3 00:00:06,339 --> 00:00:08,580 我们来讲大反转 4 00:00:11,580 --> 00:00:15,300 首先我会区分大小反转的定义 5 00:00:17,620 --> 00:00:18,780 然后我会强调 6 00:00:20,899 --> 00:00:23,940 大反转是最重要的反转模式 7 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,000 大多数反转模式都会经过震荡区间 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,820 我们先从大反转开始讲起 9 00:00:34,259 --> 00:00:39,140 然后在课程后续的视频中讲解其他类型的反转 10 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,380 这里有一个上涨趋势 11 00:00:50,380 --> 00:00:52,520 当市场处于上涨趋势时 12 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:54,799 交易者假设每次向下 13 00:00:54,799 --> 00:00:57,740 次要的会形成震荡区间或牛骑 14 00:00:57,890 --> 00:00:59,909 然后上涨趋势继续 15 00:00:59,909 --> 00:01:03,890 这里跌破了上涨趋势线通道的下沿 16 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,079 六根K线中有五根是阴线 17 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,400 空头的力量不算特别强 18 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,340 然而这里的卖压足以让交易者认为这是小反转 19 00:01:17,340 --> 00:01:19,920 但一旦上涨趋势恢复 20 00:01:20,939 --> 00:01:23,340 大反转的可能性就增加了 21 00:01:23,340 --> 00:01:25,819 尤其是这里有楔形顶 22 00:01:26,159 --> 00:01:27,638 三次向上推动 23 00:01:27,638 --> 00:01:30,469 123没错 24 00:01:30,469 --> 00:01:32,989 只是小幅期望上涨趋势会继续 25 00:01:32,989 --> 00:01:35,069 一些交易者会在这根K线下方卖 26 00:01:35,069 --> 00:01:38,010 一些交易者会等到强势的空头突破再卖出 27 00:01:38,010 --> 00:01:39,890 这里有三根连续的阴线 28 00:01:39,890 --> 00:01:40,870 体积较大 29 00:01:40,870 --> 00:01:42,450 空头会在这里卖出 30 00:01:42,450 --> 00:01:44,930 期望至少有几段下跌 31 00:01:49,299 --> 00:01:51,879 小反转上涨趋势恢复 32 00:01:51,879 --> 00:01:53,299 但并没有走太远 33 00:01:53,299 --> 00:01:55,120 在前期的高点失败 34 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:59,230 头肩顶预期会有第二段下跌 35 00:01:59,510 --> 00:02:02,510 楔形顶预期至少会有两段下跌 36 00:02:02,510 --> 00:02:03,909 一回调 37 00:02:03,909 --> 00:02:06,450 交易者会在这里下方卖出做空 38 00:02:06,450 --> 00:02:07,409 要么做波折 39 00:02:07,409 --> 00:02:08,810 只要做包头皮交易 40 00:02:08,810 --> 00:02:11,009 期待有第二段下跌 41 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:16,539 强势的空头突破 42 00:02:16,539 --> 00:02:18,479 在这根K线收盘的时候 43 00:02:18,479 --> 00:02:20,120 市场处于单边下跌 44 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,519 所以有很大的概率会继续下跌 45 00:02:22,519 --> 00:02:25,639 看起来这可能会是一次大反转 46 00:02:26,590 --> 00:02:29,469 至少在下跌一段或两段 47 00:02:32,039 --> 00:02:33,759 一些交易者会在这里卖出 48 00:02:33,759 --> 00:02:35,639 其他交易者会在他的收盘 49 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,259 或者在这根阴线下方卖出 50 00:02:38,259 --> 00:02:41,979 把这个看作是下降趋势中的一次小反弹 51 00:02:48,599 --> 00:02:49,919 楔形通道比较窄 52 00:02:51,479 --> 00:02:54,319 这里和这里的回调幅度较小 53 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,840 这里是一个很好的上涨窄通道 54 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,659 因此交易者不认为这是一个高点抬高的大反转 55 00:03:02,860 --> 00:03:04,020 换句话说 56 00:03:04,020 --> 00:03:06,139 上涨趋势非常窄的 57 00:03:06,139 --> 00:03:07,439 上涨通道被跌破 58 00:03:07,439 --> 00:03:09,000 上涨趋势会恢复 59 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,639 大多数交易者不会认为 60 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,649 这是一个高点抬高的大反转 61 00:03:12,649 --> 00:03:14,829 他们可能会认为这是一个楔形 62 00:03:14,829 --> 00:03:17,169 但不是一个大反转 63 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,460 现在他们会开始想在这里的六根阴线之后 64 00:03:21,460 --> 00:03:23,719 或者在这里的六根K线下跌之后 65 00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:25,009 交易者会开始想 66 00:03:25,009 --> 00:03:27,150 空投是否变得足够强大 67 00:03:27,150 --> 00:03:29,650 已经可以制造大反转 68 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:37,000 通常来说 69 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:42,009 这样的大反转做空机会有40%的概率 70 00:03:42,009 --> 00:03:43,270 会得到一个波段下降 71 00:03:43,270 --> 00:03:44,569 60%的概率 72 00:03:44,569 --> 00:03:45,949 要么保持横盘 73 00:03:45,949 --> 00:03:48,629 要么恢复上涨趋势 74 00:03:56,259 --> 00:03:58,460 这里市场变成了下降趋势 75 00:03:58,460 --> 00:04:01,759 交易者假设每次向上的反转都是小反转 76 00:04:01,759 --> 00:04:04,360 尤其是在这个大阴线突破之后 77 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:05,759 市场明显看跌 78 00:04:05,759 --> 00:04:07,840 尝试反转只是小反弹 79 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,199 这个反转尝试有相当好的买压 80 00:04:10,199 --> 00:04:13,009 但它仍然只是一次小反转 81 00:04:13,129 --> 00:04:15,030 然后下降趋势恢复 82 00:04:15,030 --> 00:04:17,730 比这里的上涨更加强势 83 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,279 因此交易者认为这个反转尝试也是小反弹 84 00:04:22,740 --> 00:04:25,540 然而这个反弹的幅度足够强 85 00:04:25,540 --> 00:04:27,639 并且完全反转了这里的抛售 86 00:04:27,639 --> 00:04:30,899 因此市场有可能处于震荡区间 87 00:04:31,649 --> 00:04:33,050 甚至可能被反转 88 00:04:33,050 --> 00:04:35,120 成为上涨趋势 89 00:04:35,439 --> 00:04:37,800 交易者期待下降趋势恢复 90 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:38,920 然后再反转 91 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,879 上涨时买入压住 92 00:04:40,879 --> 00:04:43,920 这是上涨趋势中更高的低点 93 00:04:51,180 --> 00:04:53,139 空投尝试恢复下降趋势 94 00:04:53,139 --> 00:04:54,600 他们制造了六根阴线 95 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,079 但是低点抬高了 96 00:04:56,079 --> 00:04:59,220 这形成了一个低点抬高的大反转 97 00:04:59,339 --> 00:05:01,040 可能在这根阳线上方 98 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,500 他也是一个低点抬高的双底大反转 99 00:05:04,889 --> 00:05:06,069 通常来说 100 00:05:06,069 --> 00:05:10,689 交易者希望看到回调至少1/3左右的幅度 101 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,399 如果空投能够做到这一点 102 00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:19,920 交易者会认为前期的低点已经得到了充分测试 103 00:05:20,459 --> 00:05:22,480 如果从那里反转上涨 104 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:23,899 他们会更愿意买压住 105 00:05:23,899 --> 00:05:26,139 大反转正在发生 106 00:05:26,709 --> 00:05:27,889 通常来说 107 00:05:27,889 --> 00:05:30,850 大反转成功的概率是40% 108 00:05:30,850 --> 00:05:34,310 成功只形成相反的大趋势 109 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,879 这里有一个非常强势的小反转 110 00:05:43,879 --> 00:05:46,529 强到足以会有第二段上涨 111 00:05:46,529 --> 00:05:48,649 你可以说这是一个楔形顶 112 00:05:48,649 --> 00:05:50,250 123 113 00:05:50,250 --> 00:05:52,589 而且确实出现了两段小的下跌 114 00:05:52,589 --> 00:05:54,439 一反弹二 115 00:05:54,439 --> 00:05:55,899 这里的买压足够强 116 00:05:55,899 --> 00:05:59,100 因此交易者期望有40%的概率 117 00:05:59,100 --> 00:06:00,519 会出现波段上涨 118 00:06:00,519 --> 00:06:03,540 并且可能有50%或60%的概率 119 00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:06,600 去回测前期这些高点 120 00:06:09,139 --> 00:06:11,620 交易者喜欢在阳线上方买入 121 00:06:11,620 --> 00:06:14,079 尤其是在五根连续的阴线之后 122 00:06:14,079 --> 00:06:16,600 大多数交易者不会在阴线上方买入 123 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,519 他们会在这根或者根K线上方买入 124 00:06:19,519 --> 00:06:21,370 订单会在这里成交 125 00:06:21,370 --> 00:06:25,050 你可以看到很多交易者在这根K线买入 126 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,360 一个成功的低点抬高的大反转 127 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,220 意味着至少有两段上涨 128 00:06:36,220 --> 00:06:39,350 以及至少两倍实际风险的利润 129 00:06:39,550 --> 00:06:42,370 如果你在这根K线的高点上方买入 130 00:06:42,370 --> 00:06:45,389 你的实际风险只是到这根K线的低点而已 131 00:06:45,389 --> 00:06:48,269 利润是实际风险的很多倍 132 00:06:49,199 --> 00:06:53,139 大部分的大反转会导致大的震荡区间 133 00:06:53,540 --> 00:06:55,660 比如在这个上涨趋势中 134 00:06:55,660 --> 00:06:57,399 高点降低的大反转 135 00:06:57,399 --> 00:06:59,800 在此时市场处于震荡区间 136 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:00,949 下降趋势 137 00:07:00,949 --> 00:07:03,589 多头突破下降趋势线 138 00:07:03,879 --> 00:07:06,259 然后是低点抬高的大反转 139 00:07:06,259 --> 00:07:09,838 此时他仍然是大震荡区间的一部分 140 00:07:09,838 --> 00:07:13,250 然而震荡区间内的波段足够大 141 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:14,870 可以进行波段交易 142 00:07:14,870 --> 00:07:17,889 波段交易者在这里或这里或这里做空 143 00:07:17,889 --> 00:07:19,980 获得了波段利润 144 00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:22,819 而在这里或者李尚方买入的多头 145 00:07:22,819 --> 00:07:25,379 也赚到了波段利润 146 00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:37,139 这里是一个下降趋势 147 00:07:37,329 --> 00:07:40,829 如果你在思考这个反转的尝试是否是大反转 148 00:07:40,829 --> 00:07:42,728 但它看起来并不强势 149 00:07:42,728 --> 00:07:45,569 你应该默认它更有可能是小反转 150 00:07:45,569 --> 00:07:49,410 小反转意味着雄奇或是震荡区间 151 00:07:56,079 --> 00:07:59,560 例如这里有一个下降趋势尝试反转 152 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,600 但只是小反弹 153 00:08:05,639 --> 00:08:07,639 反弹是否足够强势 154 00:08:07,639 --> 00:08:10,439 让交易者期待下一次会是大反转 155 00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:13,079 不没有足够的买压 156 00:08:13,949 --> 00:08:15,810 它只持续了几根K线 157 00:08:15,810 --> 00:08:18,389 如果你看一个较小时间周期的K线图 158 00:08:18,389 --> 00:08:21,009 你可能会开始寻找一个大的反转 159 00:08:21,009 --> 00:08:23,209 但在这个周期的K线图上 160 00:08:23,209 --> 00:08:26,589 买压不足以让交易者期待大反转 161 00:08:26,790 --> 00:08:30,529 所以下一次上涨大概率还是小反弹 162 00:08:30,529 --> 00:08:34,870 也就是熊奇或者是震荡区间中的一部分 163 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:37,940 你可以在这里买入 164 00:08:37,940 --> 00:08:38,879 这是高粱 165 00:08:38,879 --> 00:08:40,019 高一在这里 166 00:08:40,019 --> 00:08:41,919 高二在这里歇行 167 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:45,210 123双底低点抬高 168 00:08:45,210 --> 00:08:46,970 不错的反转K线 169 00:08:46,970 --> 00:08:49,009 然而在这里买入 170 00:08:49,009 --> 00:08:50,769 预期的是小反转 171 00:08:50,769 --> 00:08:52,649 是预期做一笔剥头皮交易 172 00:08:52,649 --> 00:08:54,870 预期的是上涨不会持续太久 173 00:08:54,870 --> 00:08:56,169 不会变成一个波段 174 00:08:56,169 --> 00:08:59,309 上涨只是做一次反弹 175 00:08:59,309 --> 00:09:01,409 反弹过后 176 00:09:02,350 --> 00:09:04,649 最终变成震荡区间的一部分 177 00:09:04,649 --> 00:09:06,590 或者是雄奇 178 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,419 这里有一个上涨趋势 179 00:09:13,419 --> 00:09:15,279 如果你寻找反转的机会 180 00:09:15,279 --> 00:09:16,860 但是看起来不太对 181 00:09:16,860 --> 00:09:19,269 那么大概率只是一次小反转 182 00:09:19,269 --> 00:09:21,309 变成震荡区间或牛骑 183 00:09:22,629 --> 00:09:25,629 所以预期上涨趋势会继续 184 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,840 上涨趋势小反转变成牛骑 185 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,279 上涨趋势继续 186 00:09:38,279 --> 00:09:40,940 多头尝试形成上涨趋势 187 00:09:40,940 --> 00:09:42,700 它会不会被大反转 188 00:09:42,700 --> 00:09:43,960 然后下跌呢 189 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,179 也许可能 190 00:09:45,179 --> 00:09:48,379 然而左边的两根阳线非常大 191 00:09:48,379 --> 00:09:50,299 而这两根阴线相对弱 192 00:09:50,299 --> 00:09:52,480 所以更有可能只是小反转 193 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,399 是牛期或者震荡区间的一部分 194 00:09:58,139 --> 00:10:00,659 因此如果交易者把它看作 195 00:10:00,659 --> 00:10:02,460 一个潜在的大反转机会 196 00:10:02,460 --> 00:10:04,779 他们最终会失望 197 00:10:06,779 --> 00:10:08,259 没有足够的卖压 198 00:10:08,259 --> 00:10:12,419 交易者不会期望下一次会是大反转 199 00:10:12,580 --> 00:10:16,539 下一次反转的尝试大概率还是小反转 200 00:10:16,539 --> 00:10:18,179 你确实可以在这里做空 201 00:10:18,179 --> 00:10:19,580 这是第二做空入场点 202 00:10:19,580 --> 00:10:22,899 小双顶双顶雄奇更低的高点 203 00:10:22,899 --> 00:10:25,110 但是左边的买压很大 204 00:10:25,269 --> 00:10:28,070 这个向下的反转更有可能是小反转 205 00:10:28,070 --> 00:10:31,230 是这个上涨趋势中的一次回调 206 00:10:31,570 --> 00:10:33,129 如果你在这里做空 207 00:10:33,129 --> 00:10:35,009 你做的是剥头皮交易 208 00:10:35,009 --> 00:10:37,169 而不是波段交易 209 00:10:39,039 --> 00:10:40,379 大反转的机会 210 00:10:40,379 --> 00:10:44,068 有大约40%的概率是波段交易 211 00:10:44,349 --> 00:10:46,469 40%的概率还不错 212 00:10:46,469 --> 00:10:50,389 因为波段交易意味着利润至少是风险的两倍 213 00:10:50,820 --> 00:10:52,240 盈亏比足够好 214 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,480 可以弥补概率的不足 215 00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:58,039 很多时候第一次反转并不成功 216 00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:06,080 上涨趋势被大阴线非常强势的跌破 217 00:11:06,769 --> 00:11:08,529 高点降低的大反转 218 00:11:08,529 --> 00:11:09,289 第二入场 219 00:11:09,289 --> 00:11:10,970 第一入场点没有空 220 00:11:10,970 --> 00:11:11,129 投 221 00:11:11,129 --> 00:11:13,759 会去卖四根五根连续的阳线 222 00:11:13,759 --> 00:11:15,759 需要等待第二次做空的信号 223 00:11:15,759 --> 00:11:18,759 这是高点降低的大反转的第二次做空信号 224 00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:20,500 看看后面发生了什么 225 00:11:20,500 --> 00:11:23,860 价格从一个更高的低点又迅速大涨上来 226 00:11:23,860 --> 00:11:25,740 刚才这笔做空的交易没有成本 227 00:11:25,740 --> 00:11:28,429 很多交易者会在这根阳线上方离场 228 00:11:28,429 --> 00:11:30,190 现在又有一个小双顶 229 00:11:30,190 --> 00:11:31,789 还有一个大的双顶 230 00:11:31,789 --> 00:11:33,750 这里是大反转结构的 231 00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:35,769 第二做空入场点 232 00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:38,210 高点降低的双顶 233 00:11:38,450 --> 00:11:39,970 这个高点比它低 234 00:11:39,970 --> 00:11:41,990 所以是高点降低的双顶 235 00:11:41,990 --> 00:11:43,529 这里有一根阴线 236 00:11:43,529 --> 00:11:46,370 所以又是一次做空的机会 237 00:11:47,940 --> 00:11:49,419 而这次也没有成功 238 00:11:51,299 --> 00:11:53,318 大多数空投会在这里离场 239 00:11:53,318 --> 00:11:55,879 因为这里是多头的第二做多入场点 240 00:11:55,879 --> 00:11:57,639 或者在这根阳线上方离 241 00:11:57,639 --> 00:11:59,318 而刚才这里最终只赚空头 242 00:11:59,318 --> 00:12:00,970 几乎是打平离场 243 00:12:00,970 --> 00:12:02,610 现在市场在上涨 244 00:12:02,610 --> 00:12:03,990 有一个楔形顶 245 00:12:03,990 --> 00:12:06,549 三次向上推动一二 246 00:12:06,549 --> 00:12:11,789 然后三小双顶嵌套式楔形三次向上推动一二 247 00:12:11,789 --> 00:12:14,299 并且略低于前期这个高点 248 00:12:14,299 --> 00:12:17,190 你可以把整个结构看作双顶 249 00:12:17,190 --> 00:12:18,850 他略微低于他 250 00:12:18,850 --> 00:12:21,629 所以你可以说这是一个高点降低的大 251 00:12:21,629 --> 00:12:23,950 他是一个潜在的大反转机会 252 00:12:23,950 --> 00:12:25,950 交易者可以在这里做空 253 00:12:25,950 --> 00:12:28,389 预期会有波段下跌 254 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,279 当你找到一个合理的大反转机会的时候 255 00:12:35,159 --> 00:12:38,759 60%的时间至少会有一些小反转 256 00:12:39,489 --> 00:12:43,208 你在这些交易中小赚打平注百分 257 00:12:43,208 --> 00:12:44,769 就像刚才两次反转时 258 00:12:44,769 --> 00:12:47,609 会得到交易超两倍于风险的回报 259 00:12:47,970 --> 00:12:50,389 其中很多时候远远不止两倍 260 00:12:50,389 --> 00:12:52,860 如果确实大反转的话 261 00:12:52,860 --> 00:12:55,480 如果一些交易有好几倍的盈亏比 262 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,580 那么就能轻松弥补40%的概率劣势 263 00:12:58,580 --> 00:13:02,269 在那60%不是大反转的交易中 264 00:13:02,820 --> 00:13:04,240 一部分是小赚 265 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:05,460 一部分是小亏 266 00:13:06,500 --> 00:13:07,759 他们互相抵消 267 00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:10,799 所以60%的时间基本上是输赢 268 00:13:10,799 --> 00:13:12,740 打平40%的时间 269 00:13:12,740 --> 00:13:14,059 如果管理得当 270 00:13:14,059 --> 00:13:16,720 会有非常可观的利润 271 00:13:19,159 --> 00:13:21,980 这里有三种不同的大反转机会 272 00:13:21,980 --> 00:13:24,818 其中一个最终反转成功 273 00:13:24,818 --> 00:13:29,499 另外两笔交易打平或是有一点点利润 274 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,059 反转有很多种类型 275 00:13:36,059 --> 00:13:37,080 楔形顶 276 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,120 双顶抢购或抛售 277 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:40,870 高潮之后的反转 278 00:13:40,870 --> 00:13:44,789 大反转是很多交易者最重要的交易模式 279 00:13:48,279 --> 00:13:51,580 因为他的交易者方程及数学期望非常好 280 00:13:51,580 --> 00:13:53,759 数学上很好很合理 281 00:13:53,759 --> 00:13:56,059 尽管只有40%的成功率 282 00:13:56,059 --> 00:13:58,159 可以抓到大的波段 283 00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:03,000 但是非常好的盈亏比弥补了低概率 284 00:14:07,100 --> 00:14:10,509 下降趋势多头相当强势的向上突破 285 00:14:10,509 --> 00:14:12,330 空头能够再次反转吗 286 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:13,389 大概率不行 287 00:14:13,389 --> 00:14:14,769 只下跌了两根阴线 288 00:14:14,769 --> 00:14:17,745 在横盘10~15根K线后 289 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:19,340 在这里做多 290 00:14:19,340 --> 00:14:22,659 有更大的概率可以拿到波段低点 291 00:14:22,659 --> 00:14:24,970 降低的双底大反转 292 00:14:25,169 --> 00:14:27,370 一些交易者会把止损放在这里 293 00:14:27,370 --> 00:14:30,490 一些交易者会把止损放在这里 294 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,480 现在有另一个双底 295 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,399 这个低点比他略高一些 296 00:14:38,399 --> 00:14:41,259 所以是低点抬高的双底大反转机会 297 00:14:41,259 --> 00:14:43,879 两段下跌一反弹 298 00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:45,919 其中包含更小的两段式 299 00:14:45,919 --> 00:14:47,299 这是一个嵌套式的结构 300 00:14:47,299 --> 00:14:49,529 反弹非常剧烈的双K反转 301 00:14:49,529 --> 00:14:51,730 这是一个不错的波段做多买点 302 00:14:52,769 --> 00:14:57,330 交易者会预期至少上涨两段十根K线 303 00:14:58,009 --> 00:15:01,460 实际上他们有40%的概率能得到一个 304 00:15:01,460 --> 00:15:02,139 上段交易 305 00:15:02,139 --> 00:15:04,940 意味着20根或更多K线至少两段 306 00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,539 并且回报至少是风险的两倍 307 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:12,360 而这里多投的回报是风险的好几倍 308 00:15:16,460 --> 00:15:19,019 上涨趋势宽上涨通道 309 00:15:19,019 --> 00:15:20,480 然后是空头突破 310 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,809 我没有把趋势线画出来 311 00:15:22,809 --> 00:15:25,500 但是可以看到上涨趋势被跌破 312 00:15:25,500 --> 00:15:26,740 然后高点大幅 313 00:15:26,740 --> 00:15:28,460 这是高点抬高的大反转机 314 00:15:28,460 --> 00:15:30,539 不是一个高胜率的做空空头的视角 315 00:15:30,539 --> 00:15:33,259 因为这个上涨通道非常窄 316 00:15:34,029 --> 00:15:36,169 但是在这里做空是合理的 317 00:15:36,169 --> 00:15:37,470 因为反转非常突兀 318 00:15:37,470 --> 00:15:38,769 如果你在这里做空 319 00:15:38,769 --> 00:15:40,649 你的止损在这个高点上方 320 00:15:40,649 --> 00:15:42,289 所以你必须用小仓位交易 321 00:15:42,289 --> 00:15:43,549 如果不在这里做空 322 00:15:43,549 --> 00:15:45,289 你可以等待 323 00:15:46,269 --> 00:15:49,789 等到高点降低的大反转及第二做空信号出现 324 00:15:49,789 --> 00:15:53,269 也就是在这里开仓做空 325 00:15:57,139 --> 00:15:59,820 下降趋势多头突破 326 00:15:59,820 --> 00:16:01,740 这里是下降趋势 327 00:16:01,740 --> 00:16:02,919 这里是突破 328 00:16:02,919 --> 00:16:06,350 你可以说它是三角形三次向下推动 329 00:16:06,350 --> 00:16:09,090 一基本上是横向的三次推动 330 00:16:09,090 --> 00:16:12,990 并且它在收敛略微向下倾斜 331 00:16:12,990 --> 00:16:15,750 所以你也可以说他是三推楔形牛旗 332 00:16:15,750 --> 00:16:17,129 左边是多头突破 333 00:16:17,129 --> 00:16:18,590 多头认为是上涨趋势 334 00:16:18,590 --> 00:16:21,450 你可以把它看作是低后是楔形牛旗 335 00:16:21,450 --> 00:16:23,450 用什么名字称呼它并不重要 336 00:16:23,450 --> 00:16:27,049 在这根阳线的高点上方是买入机会 337 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,299 你可以把它看作是三推楔形顶 338 00:16:32,299 --> 00:16:34,470 你也可以说它是上涨趋势 339 00:16:34,470 --> 00:16:35,389 空投突破 340 00:16:35,389 --> 00:16:37,470 然后高点抬高的大反转机会 341 00:16:37,470 --> 00:16:40,179 或者三次向上推动一二 342 00:16:40,179 --> 00:16:44,840 可以把这两段小的上涨看作是一段一二 343 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:49,710 然后三或者说这个楔形顶123 344 00:16:49,710 --> 00:16:51,169 他反转失败了 345 00:16:51,169 --> 00:16:54,450 然后再次尝试多头加速突破上涨通道 346 00:16:54,450 --> 00:16:57,639 75%的概率会有向下的反转 347 00:16:57,639 --> 00:17:01,320 再次强调结构重要的是叫什么名字不 348 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,620 这是一个合理的大反转机会 349 00:17:03,620 --> 00:17:04,920 两段下跌 350 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,019 一反弹二 351 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,079 你也可以说他是头肩顶 352 00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:12,579 左肩头 353 00:17:12,579 --> 00:17:13,819 右肩 354 00:17:13,819 --> 00:17:16,940 每个头肩顶的右边部分都是高点 355 00:17:16,940 --> 00:17:18,660 降低的大反转对吧 356 00:17:19,940 --> 00:17:22,500 因为右肩肯定比头更低 357 00:17:23,679 --> 00:17:27,638 所以说到头肩顶底一定是大反转的机会 358 00:17:27,638 --> 00:17:30,118 大反转的结构中需要足够多的K线 359 00:17:30,118 --> 00:17:31,990 比如这是一个头肩顶 360 00:17:31,990 --> 00:17:33,009 左肩头 361 00:17:33,009 --> 00:17:34,630 但K线数量太少 362 00:17:34,630 --> 00:17:36,950 无法成为大反转的结构 363 00:17:36,950 --> 00:17:38,849 只能预期他是小反转 364 00:17:38,849 --> 00:17:41,150 变成震荡区间或牛骑 365 00:17:41,150 --> 00:17:44,630 而这里有足够多的K线成为大反转的基 366 00:17:44,630 --> 00:17:50,359 每个大的头肩顶都是高点降低的大反转结构 367 00:17:56,500 --> 00:17:58,920 我说过大反转的机会 368 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,079 有40%的概率可以抓到一个波段 369 00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:04,750 优势在于风险小 370 00:18:04,750 --> 00:18:06,589 因为你的入场很早 371 00:18:06,589 --> 00:18:09,289 在还没有确认反转的时候就入场了 372 00:18:09,289 --> 00:18:12,470 如果在你的方向上出现强势的突破 373 00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:15,159 反转才真正到来 374 00:18:15,679 --> 00:18:18,318 这里有一个低点抬高的大反转结构 375 00:18:19,479 --> 00:18:20,719 稍微上涨了一点 376 00:18:20,719 --> 00:18:22,388 又跌回去了 377 00:18:22,388 --> 00:18:25,449 大涨大跌造成大的困惑 378 00:18:25,449 --> 00:18:27,169 现在再次反转上涨 379 00:18:27,169 --> 00:18:29,509 但只回调了一点点 380 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,720 目前这一刻他是一个强势的上涨趋势吗 381 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,700 当然这是一个好的大反转机会 382 00:18:37,900 --> 00:18:39,660 一直到上面的这个地方 383 00:18:39,660 --> 00:18:42,019 基本上可以说市场处于上涨趋势 384 00:18:42,019 --> 00:18:43,388 但是在这个时候 385 00:18:43,388 --> 00:18:45,328 这只是一次反转的尝试 386 00:18:45,328 --> 00:18:46,669 还没有变成强势 387 00:18:46,669 --> 00:18:50,669 在这里买入胜率只有40%左右 388 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,720 现在反转来了 389 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,759 连续的大阳线收在最高 390 00:19:00,700 --> 00:19:04,019 此时买入做多有更高的胜率 391 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,400 每当你的胜率变高时 392 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,390 你的盈亏比会降低 393 00:19:09,390 --> 00:19:12,130 在他或他的收盘买入做多的多头 394 00:19:12,130 --> 00:19:13,829 止损放在这里下方 395 00:19:13,829 --> 00:19:16,159 所以风险更大 396 00:19:16,439 --> 00:19:19,038 这是高胜率交易的代价 397 00:19:21,339 --> 00:19:24,480 这里有一个高点降低的大反转结构 398 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,279 小双顶不错的双K反转 399 00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:28,680 合理的做空机会 400 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,480 但市场处于窄震荡区间 401 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,740 很有可能市场会横盘 402 00:19:32,740 --> 00:19:34,740 但这是一个合理的做空机会 403 00:19:35,980 --> 00:19:37,420 市场还没有反转 404 00:19:37,420 --> 00:19:40,819 这只是反转的尝试机会 405 00:19:42,599 --> 00:19:44,579 在你看到一系列阴线之后 406 00:19:44,579 --> 00:19:47,599 这里有三根阴线收在最低 407 00:19:48,749 --> 00:19:50,308 交易者开始思考 408 00:19:50,308 --> 00:19:52,648 现在可能处于反转的早期阶段 409 00:19:52,648 --> 00:19:54,169 然后出现了大阴线 410 00:19:54,169 --> 00:19:55,679 这里又是大阴线 411 00:19:55,679 --> 00:19:56,878 后续有个视频 412 00:19:56,878 --> 00:19:58,278 交易者可能已经确定 413 00:19:58,278 --> 00:20:00,919 这是反转下跌的初期 414 00:20:01,220 --> 00:20:05,380 这里下跌的动能相比左边底部上涨的动能 415 00:20:05,380 --> 00:20:06,940 所以这里掉落空的胜率 416 00:20:06,940 --> 00:20:09,230 也不及底部做多的胜率那么高 417 00:20:09,230 --> 00:20:10,670 但在某个时刻 418 00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:14,089 这里这里或这里交易者得出结论 419 00:20:14,089 --> 00:20:16,910 市场正在反转下跌 420 00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:25,500 在大反转的早期入场的优势是把风险降到最低 421 00:20:25,819 --> 00:20:28,180 如果你在这里卖出你的止损 422 00:20:28,180 --> 00:20:28,859 在这里 423 00:20:28,859 --> 00:20:31,240 你想要至少两倍于风险的回报 424 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,990 在这里就可以得到了 425 00:20:32,990 --> 00:20:34,029 这里也是一样 426 00:20:34,029 --> 00:20:35,329 如果你在这里买入 427 00:20:35,329 --> 00:20:36,670 止损放在这里 428 00:20:36,670 --> 00:20:38,269 你在这里或这里离场 429 00:20:38,269 --> 00:20:40,829 利润是风险的好几倍 430 00:20:45,019 --> 00:20:49,940 用小风险大回报来弥补提前入场的低胜率 431 00:20:50,659 --> 00:20:51,898 如果入场晚 432 00:20:51,898 --> 00:20:53,058 盈亏比就变差 433 00:20:54,298 --> 00:20:55,979 但赚钱的概率就更高 434 00:20:55,979 --> 00:20:58,459 60%或更高 435 00:21:00,799 --> 00:21:02,440 低点抬高的大反转 436 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,759 高点降低的大反转 437 00:21:07,980 --> 00:21:11,359 刚开始是反转的结构机会尝试 438 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,700 然后发展大的概率会继续上涨 439 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,440 反转下跌的机会开始出现 440 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:22,339 空头突破 441 00:21:22,339 --> 00:21:24,039 随着阴线越来越多 442 00:21:24,039 --> 00:21:27,160 继续下跌的概率也不断变大 443 00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:33,859 在出现连续三根阴线或一两根大阴线之前 444 00:21:33,859 --> 00:21:37,349 大部分交易者不会认为市场在单边下跌 445 00:21:37,349 --> 00:21:39,809 大阴线跟随音线 446 00:21:39,809 --> 00:21:41,930 在出现连续的阳线之前 447 00:21:41,930 --> 00:21:43,470 比如这里和这里 448 00:21:43,470 --> 00:21:47,369 大部分交易者不会认为市场在单边上涨 449 00:21:50,599 --> 00:21:52,519 再次出现连续的阴线 450 00:21:52,519 --> 00:21:54,119 这里有连续的阴线 451 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:55,039 收在最低 452 00:21:55,039 --> 00:21:56,839 还有这里 453 00:21:58,319 --> 00:22:02,160 在这里或这里大多数交易者会得出结论 454 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:03,440 空头已经掌控了 455 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,680 市场会下跌 456 00:22:11,519 --> 00:22:12,640 下降趋势 457 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:13,819 下降趋势线 458 00:22:13,819 --> 00:22:16,259 然后被强势的向上突破 459 00:22:16,259 --> 00:22:17,819 横盘震荡之后 460 00:22:17,819 --> 00:22:21,900 出现了合理的低点抬高的大反转机会 461 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,819 交易者希望看到不止一根阳线 462 00:22:30,819 --> 00:22:32,980 他们希望看到跟随的买盘 463 00:22:32,980 --> 00:22:36,180 这里有连续第二根阳线收在最高 464 00:22:36,180 --> 00:22:39,380 然后是更强的阳线收在最高 465 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:41,880 空投放弃了多头 466 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,339 获得了市场的掌控权 467 00:22:43,339 --> 00:22:45,769 多头正在激进的买入 468 00:22:46,250 --> 00:22:49,710 预期至少会涨到mm目标位突破 469 00:22:49,710 --> 00:22:53,930 让多空双方都相信现在处于上涨趋势 470 00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:58,839 再次强调 471 00:22:58,839 --> 00:23:01,220 当你看到强势的多头突破后 472 00:23:01,220 --> 00:23:02,720 做多的胜率更高 473 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,279 代价是风险更大 474 00:23:04,279 --> 00:23:06,380 因为止损更远 475 00:23:07,970 --> 00:23:10,809 不管你在这里这里还是这里买入 476 00:23:10,809 --> 00:23:13,049 止损都在这里 477 00:23:13,950 --> 00:23:15,529 但是在这里买入 478 00:23:15,529 --> 00:23:17,910 你赚钱的概率更高 479 00:23:21,420 --> 00:23:23,000 一根非常大的阳线 480 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,619 你可以在他的收盘买入 481 00:23:24,619 --> 00:23:26,660 也可以在后续跟随阳线的收盘 482 00:23:26,660 --> 00:23:28,680 也可以在两根大阳线突破后 483 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,539 再跟随K线的收盘买入 484 00:23:32,779 --> 00:23:35,940 止损放在多头突破的起点下方 485 00:23:36,650 --> 00:23:40,569 多头突破抢购高潮注重要趋势 486 00:23:40,569 --> 00:23:42,650 后期的抢购高潮 487 00:23:44,220 --> 00:23:46,539 低点抬高的双底 488 00:23:47,220 --> 00:23:49,180 这是前期的低点 489 00:23:49,180 --> 00:23:51,200 这个双底在那个低点的上方 490 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:52,500 所以是一个低点 491 00:23:52,500 --> 00:23:52,980 太高的 492 00:23:52,980 --> 00:23:54,829 之前突破了下降趋势线 493 00:23:54,829 --> 00:23:57,150 所以这是一个低点抬高的双底 494 00:23:57,150 --> 00:23:59,640 大反转的机会 495 00:24:03,759 --> 00:24:07,240 当多头强势突破下降趋势线之后 496 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,000 交易者会关注低点是否抬高 497 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,220 有时会出现低点降低的反转 498 00:24:12,220 --> 00:24:14,000 有时会出现低点抬高 499 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,119 也会有完美的双底 500 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:16,779 两个低点完全无论如何 501 00:24:16,779 --> 00:24:20,220 交易者想要的是下降趋势恢复失败 502 00:24:20,220 --> 00:24:21,859 然后反转上涨 503 00:24:21,859 --> 00:24:24,980 他们会在反转上涨时买入 504 00:24:26,839 --> 00:24:28,059 反转上涨 505 00:24:28,059 --> 00:24:29,880 反转上涨 506 00:24:30,618 --> 00:24:32,499 这不再是一个下降趋势 507 00:24:32,499 --> 00:24:34,118 它可能是一个震荡区间 508 00:24:34,118 --> 00:24:35,259 确实是震荡区间 509 00:24:35,259 --> 00:24:38,259 也有可能会反转成上涨趋势 510 00:24:38,539 --> 00:24:41,319 尽管知道这可能只是一个震荡区间 511 00:24:41,319 --> 00:24:42,619 多头还是会买入 512 00:24:42,619 --> 00:24:45,239 因为也有可能是上涨趋势 513 00:24:45,479 --> 00:24:47,699 他们希望这里的反转上涨 514 00:24:47,699 --> 00:24:49,720 创造了第一个抬高的低点 515 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,119 这个低点在下降趋势的最低点上 516 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:52,960 就像这个低点 517 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,720 在下降趋势最低点上 518 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,079 它变成了一个楔形 519 00:24:56,079 --> 00:24:58,339 其实基本上是一个扩张三角形 520 00:24:58,339 --> 00:25:02,069 二三可以看到很多多头在这里放弃了 521 00:25:02,069 --> 00:25:03,809 他们在这里再次买入 522 00:25:03,809 --> 00:25:06,470 这一次他们成功的抓到了一个上涨波段 523 00:25:06,470 --> 00:25:08,269 然后是一系列更高的低点 524 00:25:08,269 --> 00:25:12,920 这里这里这里甚至这里 525 00:25:14,220 --> 00:25:17,960 上涨趋势空头尝试跌破上涨趋势线 526 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,509 这里再次跌破上涨趋势线 527 00:25:20,509 --> 00:25:23,029 这是一个高点降低的大反转 528 00:25:23,029 --> 00:25:24,769 我画了这条趋势线 529 00:25:24,769 --> 00:25:27,450 我也可以在这里画一条趋势线 530 00:25:27,450 --> 00:25:29,009 这里跌破了趋势线 531 00:25:30,009 --> 00:25:32,769 这样就看作是高点抬高的大反转 532 00:25:32,769 --> 00:25:35,619 然后再是高点降低的大反转 533 00:25:35,619 --> 00:25:39,460 这也是一个宽上涨通道深度回调 534 00:25:39,460 --> 00:25:41,380 所以你可以用那个低点 535 00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:44,220 甚至是这个低点来画上涨趋势线 536 00:25:44,220 --> 00:25:47,140 这些都是表现上涨趋势的方法 537 00:25:52,819 --> 00:25:55,680 根据这两个低点画的上涨趋势线 538 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,400 空头尝试跌破它 539 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,579 然后发生了什么 540 00:26:00,150 --> 00:26:01,750 完全没有跟随的卖盘 541 00:26:02,990 --> 00:26:06,029 强势的向下反转大阴线 542 00:26:06,230 --> 00:26:08,309 但没有一系列连续的阴线 543 00:26:08,309 --> 00:26:10,269 价格猛烈的反转上涨 544 00:26:10,269 --> 00:26:13,509 交易者不认为这是下降趋势的开始 545 00:26:13,509 --> 00:26:16,750 即使这是一个高点抬高的大反转模式 546 00:26:16,750 --> 00:26:18,670 我可以在这里画一条趋势线 547 00:26:18,670 --> 00:26:22,309 它被跌破了高点抬高的大反转机会 548 00:26:22,309 --> 00:26:24,089 但是多头强势上涨 549 00:26:24,089 --> 00:26:24,910 想要恢复上涨 550 00:26:24,910 --> 00:26:28,210 市场可能会在宽通道中继续上涨 551 00:26:28,450 --> 00:26:30,960 或者这可能是一个震荡区间 552 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,480 大涨大跌造成大的困惑 553 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:34,500 现在有大涨 554 00:26:34,500 --> 00:26:36,039 大跌又大涨 555 00:26:36,039 --> 00:26:36,990 感到困惑 556 00:26:36,990 --> 00:26:39,150 通常意味着市场处于震荡 557 00:26:39,150 --> 00:26:41,089 每当市场处于震荡区间 558 00:26:41,089 --> 00:26:43,969 就会同时出现做空和做多的机会 559 00:26:43,969 --> 00:26:45,769 这里有一个潜在的高点 560 00:26:45,769 --> 00:26:48,579 降低的大反转机会 561 00:26:53,259 --> 00:26:55,220 尽管这里在不断下跌 562 00:26:55,220 --> 00:26:56,700 但也不是特别强势 563 00:26:57,700 --> 00:27:00,579 没有很大的阴线突破和好的跟随 564 00:27:00,579 --> 00:27:02,019 许多交易者认为 565 00:27:02,019 --> 00:27:04,279 这是震荡区间中的下跌波段 566 00:27:04,279 --> 00:27:05,359 确实如此 567 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,200 上涨下跌上涨仍然在这个低点之上 568 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:10,400 仍然在这个低点 569 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,359 这是震荡区间中的一个下跌波动 570 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,380 然而下跌持续了大约20根K线 571 00:27:15,380 --> 00:27:18,000 这足够赚到一笔做空的波段交易了 572 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,460 即使没有下降趋势 573 00:27:19,460 --> 00:27:22,119 一个下跌波段也足够了 574 00:27:23,609 --> 00:27:26,549 这里有空头突破和跟随的阴线 575 00:27:26,549 --> 00:27:30,289 这更有可能引发某种波段的行情 576 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,720 每当上涨趋势线被跌破 577 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,279 空头会预期上涨趋势的恢复 578 00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:47,099 然后形成更低的高点 579 00:27:47,500 --> 00:27:49,539 如果价格突破前期的高点 580 00:27:49,539 --> 00:27:52,500 那么他们就会期待从更高的高点反转下跌的 581 00:27:52,500 --> 00:27:53,400 无论如何 582 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,740 在他们看到趋势线被跌破之后 583 00:27:55,740 --> 00:27:58,559 交易者会关注上涨趋势的恢复情况 584 00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:01,369 看他是否会失败 585 00:28:01,369 --> 00:28:02,890 然后形成某种双底 586 00:28:02,890 --> 00:28:05,369 不论是高点降低的还是完美的 587 00:28:05,369 --> 00:28:07,490 他们希望高价格太高的反转双顶 588 00:28:07,490 --> 00:28:09,659 他们希望多头恢复趋势失败 589 00:28:09,659 --> 00:28:12,818 这样市场就可以开始下跌的波段 590 00:28:14,539 --> 00:28:16,059 交易者会寻找做空 591 00:28:16,059 --> 00:28:17,420 这里有一个小双顶 592 00:28:17,420 --> 00:28:19,349 这里有一个更大的双顶 593 00:28:19,349 --> 00:28:21,750 空投会在这个低点下方卖出 594 00:28:21,750 --> 00:28:23,670 会在这下线下道中出 595 00:28:23,670 --> 00:28:25,230 有一个更低的高点 596 00:28:25,230 --> 00:28:26,869 他们会在那根K线下方 597 00:28:26,869 --> 00:28:27,970 现在有一个小双顶 598 00:28:27,970 --> 00:28:31,099 这个高点他们会在那根K线下方卖出 599 00:28:31,099 --> 00:28:32,440 在某个时刻 600 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,220 交易者会得出结论 601 00:28:34,220 --> 00:28:35,500 这不再是一个上涨 602 00:28:35,500 --> 00:28:36,779 要么是震荡区间 603 00:28:36,779 --> 00:28:38,650 要么是下降趋势 604 00:28:38,650 --> 00:28:40,289 在这里的某个地方 605 00:28:40,289 --> 00:28:42,630 越来越多的交易者得出结论 606 00:28:42,630 --> 00:28:44,269 上涨趋势已经结束 607 00:28:44,269 --> 00:28:46,750 一旦市场跌破一个重要的更高低点 608 00:28:46,750 --> 00:28:48,809 比如这里或这里 609 00:28:48,809 --> 00:28:50,750 交易者会得出结论 610 00:28:50,750 --> 00:28:52,529 上涨趋势肯定结束了 611 00:28:52,529 --> 00:28:54,250 市场要么处于震荡区间 612 00:28:54,250 --> 00:28:56,420 要么处于下降趋势 613 00:28:56,420 --> 00:28:59,160 他们希望从这个降低的高点开始 614 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:00,740 后面的高点一个比一个低 615 00:29:00,740 --> 00:29:03,339 一系列降低的高点意味着下降通道 616 00:29:03,339 --> 00:29:05,700 也就是下降趋势 617 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,680 下降通道多头突破不算特别强 618 00:29:12,390 --> 00:29:14,809 就上涨了4~5根K线 619 00:29:14,809 --> 00:29:19,549 然而交易者在想空头恢复下降趋势的尝试 620 00:29:19,549 --> 00:29:23,369 然后导致价格上涨变成大反转 621 00:29:24,519 --> 00:29:26,799 这个大概率只是一次小反弹 622 00:29:26,799 --> 00:29:31,039 因为这个多头突破只持续了大约四根K线祝福 623 00:29:31,039 --> 00:29:33,740 所以下一次的反转上涨也不会走太远 624 00:29:33,740 --> 00:29:36,720 多头可能需要某种双底的结构 625 00:29:39,349 --> 00:29:41,930 或是做现在有了一个双底 626 00:29:42,460 --> 00:29:45,019 你可以说它是低点降低的大反转 627 00:29:45,019 --> 00:29:48,700 但实际上这里或这里没有太多的买压 628 00:29:48,700 --> 00:29:51,170 这可能只是一个小反转 629 00:29:54,670 --> 00:29:55,650 当然是可以的 630 00:29:55,650 --> 00:29:59,420 反弹如果我在这里是想换做波段交易反转 631 00:29:59,420 --> 00:30:02,259 这里多头强势的突破了下降趋势线 632 00:30:02,259 --> 00:30:05,189 因此下一次空头尝试继续下跌 633 00:30:05,189 --> 00:30:08,169 如果失败就有可能导致大的上涨反转 634 00:30:08,169 --> 00:30:09,009 对我来说 635 00:30:09,009 --> 00:30:10,809 这是一个大反转的机会 636 00:30:10,809 --> 00:30:12,170 在这根阳线的上方 637 00:30:12,170 --> 00:30:14,609 在多头强势突破下降趋势线之后 638 00:30:14,609 --> 00:30:16,529 又一个小双底 639 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,720 这里的突破非常不错 640 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,859 当然可能只是小反转 641 00:30:23,859 --> 00:30:25,359 然后变成震荡区间 642 00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:28,400 可能只是下降趋势中的震荡区间 643 00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:34,720 多头他们会在这里这里买入 644 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,380 或者在这里买入 645 00:30:36,380 --> 00:30:38,710 压住大的反转 646 00:30:38,869 --> 00:30:41,230 他们有40%的胜率 647 00:30:41,230 --> 00:30:42,970 如果想要更高的胜率 648 00:30:42,970 --> 00:30:46,089 多头需要等待强势的大阳线突破 649 00:30:46,089 --> 00:30:47,549 并且友好的跟随K线 650 00:30:47,549 --> 00:30:49,730 空头放弃了在这根K线 651 00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:53,329 空头知道他们已经失去了市场的掌控权 652 00:30:53,910 --> 00:30:55,470 一根非常大的阳线 653 00:30:55,470 --> 00:30:57,450 这是空头恐慌离场的信号 654 00:30:57,450 --> 00:31:00,210 也是多头积极买入的信号 655 00:31:00,369 --> 00:31:01,710 这么强的突破 656 00:31:01,710 --> 00:31:03,250 后续还有跟随 657 00:31:03,250 --> 00:31:05,029 如果你在此时买入 658 00:31:05,029 --> 00:31:06,410 有60% 659 00:31:06,410 --> 00:31:08,589 70%的概率 660 00:31:08,829 --> 00:31:12,109 价格会上涨到某个mm目标位 661 00:31:20,359 --> 00:31:21,900 当价格上涨的时候 662 00:31:21,900 --> 00:31:23,839 比如这里上涨趋势 663 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,119 价格涨到这里 664 00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:28,109 然后形成双顶 665 00:31:28,390 --> 00:31:31,289 也许是高点略微抬高的大反转模式 666 00:31:31,289 --> 00:31:33,309 前面第一次下跌非常弱 667 00:31:33,309 --> 00:31:35,299 只有这么两根小阴线 668 00:31:35,299 --> 00:31:37,519 通常这只是小反转 669 00:31:37,519 --> 00:31:40,259 如果你在寻找波段交易的机会 670 00:31:40,259 --> 00:31:42,809 通常直到出现强势的空头突破 671 00:31:42,809 --> 00:31:45,069 然后市场尝试恢复上涨 672 00:31:45,069 --> 00:31:47,769 然后你期待恢复上涨的尝试会失败 673 00:31:47,769 --> 00:31:50,769 这里和这里都是小反转 674 00:31:51,380 --> 00:31:54,079 然而一旦出现了强势的空头突破 675 00:31:54,079 --> 00:31:55,359 然后市场长 676 00:31:55,359 --> 00:31:56,859 但是回复上涨失败 677 00:31:56,859 --> 00:31:59,900 就更有可能会出现大的反转 678 00:32:03,059 --> 00:32:04,859 只有两根K线下跌 679 00:32:04,859 --> 00:32:05,940 只是小反转 680 00:32:07,019 --> 00:32:09,140 所以这更有可能只是小反转 681 00:32:09,140 --> 00:32:11,250 这个也只是小反转 682 00:32:11,250 --> 00:32:12,970 有大反转的可能性 683 00:32:12,970 --> 00:32:15,210 但左边只有两根K线下跌 684 00:32:15,210 --> 00:32:17,450 甚至都没有接近1M20 685 00:32:17,450 --> 00:32:19,269 所以下一次的下跌 686 00:32:19,269 --> 00:32:22,130 大概率也只是市场会进入震荡区间 687 00:32:22,130 --> 00:32:24,490 而不是下降趋势 688 00:32:25,250 --> 00:32:27,130 如果你想做波段交易 689 00:32:27,130 --> 00:32:27,809 最好耐心 690 00:32:27,809 --> 00:32:30,250 直到你看到空投在非常强势的卖出 691 00:32:30,250 --> 00:32:33,130 然后你等待上涨趋势恢复 692 00:32:33,420 --> 00:32:36,039 并寻找恢复失败后的做空机会 693 00:32:36,039 --> 00:32:39,359 这是一个高点降低的大反转模式 694 00:32:39,359 --> 00:32:41,960 40%的概率会有下跌波段 695 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:43,980 在这里做空或在这里做空 696 00:32:43,980 --> 00:32:45,480 只是剥头皮交易 697 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:46,420 因为没有卖压 698 00:32:46,420 --> 00:32:50,420 不够交易者不认为上涨趋势会变成下降趋势 699 00:32:50,420 --> 00:32:53,119 看到这个之后有很好的卖压 700 00:32:53,119 --> 00:32:56,039 这是空头越来越强大的信号 701 00:32:56,210 --> 00:32:58,809 所以在上涨趋势恢复失败后 702 00:32:58,809 --> 00:33:03,450 空投会尝试反转趋势去获得一个下跌的波段 703 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,420 上涨趋势楔形顶一 704 00:33:13,420 --> 00:33:15,440 这里的下跌反转很不错 705 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:16,799 足够强势 706 00:33:16,799 --> 00:33:18,839 使得下一次反转有可能是大幅 707 00:33:18,839 --> 00:33:20,920 但是他最终还是变成了高粱牛 708 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,119 骑注两段 709 00:33:22,119 --> 00:33:24,579 下两段式回调高两起 710 00:33:24,579 --> 00:33:25,799 两者是一致的 711 00:33:25,799 --> 00:33:26,880 跌破了上涨趋势 712 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,099 因此交易者会期待下一段上涨 713 00:33:29,099 --> 00:33:31,480 在前期高点附近失败 714 00:33:32,380 --> 00:33:35,299 高点略微抬高的大反转模式 715 00:33:35,299 --> 00:33:37,660 你可以说它是一个扩张三角形 716 00:33:37,660 --> 00:33:38,880 三次向上推动 717 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,700 这里高点抬高 718 00:33:40,700 --> 00:33:41,869 高点抬高 719 00:33:41,869 --> 00:33:43,690 而下方的对我来说在降低 720 00:33:43,690 --> 00:33:45,589 这就是一个大反转的模式 721 00:33:45,589 --> 00:33:47,630 你也可以说他是连续的顶部 722 00:33:47,630 --> 00:33:48,509 这里有头肩顶 723 00:33:48,509 --> 00:33:50,609 左肩头右肩 724 00:33:50,609 --> 00:33:52,009 但是他反转失败了 725 00:33:52,009 --> 00:33:53,529 现在再次尝试筑顶 726 00:33:53,529 --> 00:33:56,369 形成高点抬高的大反转 727 00:33:58,519 --> 00:34:00,079 这是合理的做空机会 728 00:34:00,079 --> 00:34:02,500 小双顶连续的顶部结构 729 00:34:02,500 --> 00:34:04,099 之前有一个头肩顶 730 00:34:04,099 --> 00:34:06,160 现在再次筑顶 731 00:34:06,369 --> 00:34:07,890 在良好的慢压后 732 00:34:07,890 --> 00:34:10,050 出现高点抬高的大反转机会 733 00:34:10,050 --> 00:34:12,090 空投在这里展现出了力量 734 00:34:12,090 --> 00:34:13,690 也许在新的高点 735 00:34:13,690 --> 00:34:15,369 他们会再次强势的卖 736 00:34:15,369 --> 00:34:17,650 并且制造下跌的波段 737 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,719 你可以在这里做空 738 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:23,840 你可以在这里做空 739 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,320 现在出现了强势的空头 740 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,070 交易者知道空投已经掌控了局面 741 00:34:28,070 --> 00:34:30,869 这个反弹的尝试会失败 742 00:34:31,539 --> 00:34:35,018 交易者会在那个阴线下方卖出做空预期 743 00:34:35,018 --> 00:34:37,059 这是一个高点降低的小双顶 744 00:34:37,059 --> 00:34:39,858 即使这个高点低于那个高点 745 00:34:40,059 --> 00:34:42,298 我仍然把它看作是一个小双顶 746 00:34:42,298 --> 00:34:45,699 强势空投突破之后的双顶雄奇 747 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,329 我之前提到过这个楔形123 748 00:34:52,329 --> 00:34:53,949 然后出现了两段下跌 749 00:34:53,949 --> 00:34:55,409 上涨趋势恢复 750 00:34:55,409 --> 00:34:58,420 现在有一个潜在的扩张三角形的顶部 751 00:34:58,420 --> 00:35:00,360 每个扩张三角形的顶部 752 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,880 都是高点抬高的大反转结构 753 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,340 那是合理的做空机会 754 00:35:07,500 --> 00:35:09,699 之前有高点降低的大反转 755 00:35:09,699 --> 00:35:11,059 但反转没有成功 756 00:35:11,059 --> 00:35:13,300 变成震荡区间 757 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,429 我把这个称为低点降低的大反转 758 00:35:19,429 --> 00:35:21,630 下降趋势多头突破 759 00:35:21,630 --> 00:35:23,469 从新的低点开始反转上涨 760 00:35:23,469 --> 00:35:25,550 我认为这更有可能是一个小反转 761 00:35:25,550 --> 00:35:27,909 因为这里没有太多的买压 762 00:35:28,309 --> 00:35:30,429 更有可能变成震荡区间 763 00:35:30,429 --> 00:35:32,208 而不是一个上涨趋势 764 00:35:32,208 --> 00:35:35,820 这里有一个双底反转的概率越来越高 765 00:35:35,820 --> 00:35:37,989 但仍然更有可能是小反转 766 00:35:37,989 --> 00:35:41,150 一旦看到这个一系列连续的阳线 767 00:35:41,150 --> 00:35:43,510 然后空头尝试恢复下降趋势 768 00:35:43,510 --> 00:35:46,190 就更有可能出现大反转 769 00:35:51,079 --> 00:35:53,179 很多空投没有在这里离场 770 00:35:53,179 --> 00:35:55,239 他们认为这会是小反转 771 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:56,820 之后还会继续下跌 772 00:35:56,820 --> 00:35:57,500 创新低 773 00:35:57,500 --> 00:35:59,650 很多空投没有在这里离场 774 00:35:59,650 --> 00:36:00,929 和刚才一样 775 00:36:00,929 --> 00:36:02,769 他们认为这是小反转 776 00:36:02,769 --> 00:36:05,920 会变成震荡区间或熊奇 777 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,659 然而当他们看到这个 778 00:36:08,659 --> 00:36:10,079 他们改变了想法 779 00:36:10,079 --> 00:36:12,800 现在空头尝试让下降趋势恢复 780 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,019 他们失败了 781 00:36:14,019 --> 00:36:15,159 再次失败 782 00:36:15,159 --> 00:36:18,179 并且在这里放弃了 783 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,659 一旦看到这样的突破 784 00:36:22,659 --> 00:36:24,719 空投希望会有一些回调 785 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,199 让他们回补空头仓位 786 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,280 以更小的损失离场 787 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:30,940 强势的突破 788 00:36:30,940 --> 00:36:33,219 空投希望出现深度回调 789 00:36:33,219 --> 00:36:35,019 让他们买回空头仓位 790 00:36:35,019 --> 00:36:36,579 减少损失 791 00:36:36,579 --> 00:36:38,300 当多头看到这个 792 00:36:38,300 --> 00:36:40,599 他们相信市场会上涨 793 00:36:40,599 --> 00:36:42,400 多头也希望有回调 794 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,460 这样他们就可以买入做多 795 00:36:44,460 --> 00:36:47,250 预期会有第二段上涨 796 00:36:47,489 --> 00:36:49,670 一旦市场开始这样上涨 797 00:36:49,670 --> 00:36:52,929 很显然市场在不断被套牢了 798 00:36:52,929 --> 00:36:55,289 他们必须买入回补 799 00:36:58,340 --> 00:37:00,880 在价格强势突破下降通道之后 800 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,400 多头和空头都预期会有第二段上涨 801 00:37:04,639 --> 00:37:08,000 空头利用回调买回他们的空头仓位 802 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,719 多头也利用回调买入做多 803 00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,360 当多头和空头都在买入时 804 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,360 非常大的概率至少会有小的第二段上涨 805 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,159 这里多头得到了一个非常大的第二段上涨 806 00:37:20,869 --> 00:37:22,969 想要更高胜率的多头交易者 807 00:37:22,969 --> 00:37:25,750 他们会等到非常强势的多头突破出现 808 00:37:25,750 --> 00:37:28,590 然后在他或者他的收盘买入 809 00:37:28,949 --> 00:37:30,090 再次说明 810 00:37:30,090 --> 00:37:32,130 如果在强势突破后买入 811 00:37:32,130 --> 00:37:32,909 你的止损 812 00:37:32,909 --> 00:37:34,869 在这里你的风险更大 813 00:37:34,869 --> 00:37:38,230 这是做高胜率交易必须支付的代价 814 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,929 这节课的开始我讲解了大小反转的区别 815 00:37:46,929 --> 00:37:49,570 大反转是期待出现相反的波段 816 00:37:49,570 --> 00:37:50,510 甚至趋势 817 00:37:50,510 --> 00:37:55,469 小反转是期待变成震荡区间或骑行注下一单元 818 00:37:55,469 --> 00:37:58,590 大反转是最重要的反转模式 819 00:37:58,989 --> 00:38:01,730 它是从一个趋势变成反向的趋势 820 00:38:01,730 --> 00:38:04,030 至少是反向的波段 821 00:38:05,630 --> 00:38:08,090 交易者有机会赚到波段的利润 822 00:38:08,090 --> 00:38:09,750 很多钱 823 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,079 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 824 00:38:16,079 --> 00:38:19,800 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程大反转的第一节课 825 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,679 到这里就讲完了
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