美股 新牛来了！INTC暴涨的逻辑是什么？大空头开始抄底这几股！NVDA险些创了新高！META和AMZN合作押注CPU！TSLA还有什么搞头？MSFT、AAPL

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大家好

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今天是4月24号星期五

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我们继续分析美股

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本期内容如下

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我们先看消息面

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英特尔第一季度的财报强劲

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AI驱动CPU需求回升

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以下是一些关键的财务指标

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营收超预期

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一季度营收136亿美元

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同比增长7%

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远超分析师预期的124.2亿美元

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每股收益调整后是0.29美元

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市场预期仅为0.01美元

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差距显著

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核心引擎是数据中心与AI业务

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营收51亿美元

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同比增长22%

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成为增长核心的引擎

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未来指引第二季度营收指引

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138到148亿美元终止

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远超分析师平均预期的130亿美元

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市场反应啊

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那么股价飙升

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多家机构呢上调了评级和目标价

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右边呢就是一些上调的一个目标价哈

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英特尔反转逻辑与市场分歧

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三大反转因素

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AI工作负载需要更多CPU算力

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AI从训练向推理与智能体应用演进

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新任CEO陈立武

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修复资产负债表

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执行可行的竞争策略

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英特尔已重回竞争轨道

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拥有美国唯一领先芯片制造商的地缘优势

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近期与美国政府

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英伟达及特斯拉的战略联盟将进一步强化地位

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市场共识仍偏谨慎

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47位分析师中

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34位仅给出持有评级

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仅九位给予买入或强力买入评级

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摩根大通维持减持的评级

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目标价是45美元

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较当前股价存在约45%的下行空间

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代工部门一季度营收54亿美元

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同比增长16%

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但经营亏损仍达24亿美元

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盈利前景尚不明朗

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取决于代工业务进展及AI驱动CPU需求能否持续

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大空头博里做多软件

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做空芯片

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逆势买入软件股

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这里是建仓了微软的股票嗯

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微软股价呢较前期历史高点下跌

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约25%

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增持了MSCIPAYPAL和adobe嗯

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也就是ADBE的仓位

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还有一些其他的哈

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说明确表示没有卖出任何软件股

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看好价值修复潜力

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但是呢要他说要做空芯片板块

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他买入了QQQ的看跌期权

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买入了英伟达和呃半导体ETF的看跌期权

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它将芯片股暴涨描述为史诗级飙涨

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在美股史上从未发生过

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半导体ETF

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股价与200日均线乖离率高达43%

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属历史罕见水平

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他的投资逻辑

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AI浪潮下的价值博弈

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软件板块下跌背景

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投资者对IBM和ServiceNow财报的AI威胁信号感到担忧

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市场情绪波动

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市场剧烈反应

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那么周四呢

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这些股票下跌拖累整个软件板块下行

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它的核心判断是

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当前股价下跌是技术性压力与恐慌情绪所致

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而非基本面恶化

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是买入良机

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核心压住逻辑

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随着AI技术发展

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软件应用层的价值将最终超越硬件设备

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迎来价值重估

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风格轮动预期呃

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市场风格可能迎来轮动

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资金将从硬件设备向软件应用层转移

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风险对冲策略

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他承认很难精准判断市场顶部

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但依然选择增加看跌期权来对冲风险

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meta与亚马逊达成数10亿美元合作

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压住CPU算力巨额合作协议

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meta与亚马逊达成一项为期三至5年

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价值数10亿美元的战略合作协议

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标志着双方在云计算与AI

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基础设施领域的深度绑定

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GRAVITTON芯片部署

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meta将大规模使用亚马逊云科技

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数千万颗芯片核心

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为其AI训练与推理项目提供底层算力支持

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显著提升能效比

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多元化算力战略

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此举旨在摆脱对单一GPU架构的依赖

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构建多元化高性价比的算力体系

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增强供应链安全与技术自主权

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核心客户地位

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通过此次大规模采购

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meta正式成为亚马逊啊

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该芯片的五大核心客户之一

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进一步巩固其在云生态中的话语权

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智能体时代引爆CPU价值

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算力架构迎来重构技术趋势

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AI从训练转向智能体应用推理需求爆发

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CPU在任务编排逻辑调度中的作用变得至关重要

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不再仅仅是辅助CPU与GPU形成高效互补

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异构计算成为主流架构

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行业影响

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meta的重金压注

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标志着

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CPU在AI推理与后训练环节的核心价值回归

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预示着由GPU主导的单一算力叙事

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正被CPU与GPU协同作战的新格局所取代

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好我们看一下今天市场的表现

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今天纳指继续延续了涨势哈

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今天又是漂亮的大阳线

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那么昨天的停顿呢就是一个小型的洗盘是吧

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那我们猜顶吗

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其实很难猜顶哈

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你猜能不能继续掉

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当然了

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可以了

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我们看下15分钟图表是吧

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这里稍微震一震又涨上去了啊

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这个涨一涨就洗一洗

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这是比较健康的一个走法哈

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但是这个美股太过疯狂啊

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这个洗盘的这个时间

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包括这个幅度都太浅了是吧

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对大盘来说

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这微跌一点点

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昨天对吧

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嗯我记得是跌了0.5%左右哈

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微跌了一丢丢啊

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那么今天又上涨了1.79%哈

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说明多头极为强势哈

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说还能做多吗

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嗯这个问题抛出来的时候呢

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我就感觉有点难回答

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理论上我们不猜顶的话

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应该继续做多是吧

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但是也要随时提防反向运动哈

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因为一些逆势的一些形态呢若隐若现了

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好我们看简单看一下罗素哈

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罗素还好啊

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没有使劲暴涨啊

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就这几天

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但整体上呢还是要看涨对吧

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哎今天是一个小阳线

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空头不强吧

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看一下道指

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那他呢是最稍微稍微滞后一点啊

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空头强势吧

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不强势

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应该是在这里洗牌啊

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洗掉这个阻力区再往上走

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可能下周接下来15~10个交易日啊

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可能就上去了

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好空头并不强势啊

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那么整体而言标普呢是上涨的一个态势哈

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主要是道指没怎么涨

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罗素没怎么涨啊

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啊科技股稍微驱动了一下

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好还可以让我们看一下市场整体的表现哈

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那今天行业整体呢我们的科技还是不错的哈

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嗯啊但是其他行业呢可能是一般哈

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但是也不是大空头都是微跌的状态

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也就是说停顿哈

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也就是还是回调是吧

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嗯看一下领涨板块啊

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英伟达相关的主要是英特尔是吧

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因为英伟达也持仓了英特尔哦

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我记得对的啊

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一开始啊美国政府持股

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然后是英伟达持股是吧

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后边这个CPU又开始火起来了哈啊这是英伟达

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包括英特尔相关的哈

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都是OK的呃

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然后是激光雷达啊

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半导体啊

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基本上就是还是半导体相关的啊

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那不妨去看一下英特尔

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额这个特斯拉出财报啊

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特斯拉其实盘后是微涨的哈

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上涨来着

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天空猫上涨

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但是呢全天又收低哈

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但英特尔人家就是盘后就是跳涨

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然后还是维持了一个上涨的态势哈

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那么英特尔还能做多吗

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有网友问

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那应该是能哈

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但是你说这个位置做多的话对吧

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会会感觉会如何呢

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哎如果你是在这片儿做的多是吧

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在这片啊

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在我们说这个这片儿做多了是什么感受呢对吧

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那现在做多的话也理论上是可以的哈

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因为空头并不强势啊

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非常强势的大缺口啊

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是多头强势的表现啊

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我们还是他的日内的表现

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你看哎这是横盘啊

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你看做多做多就可以了

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咱不是事后视角看哈

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事前的话也应该做毒来着是吧

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嗯那后边还能做吗

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做能啊

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为什么不能呢

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对没有理由去踩顶哈

220
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但是啊

221
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:52,360
你要可能会遇遇到一些

222
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,220
这样的或那样的小回车哈

223
00:09:54,220 --> 00:09:55,820
注意是这样这种幅度的

224
00:09:55,820 --> 00:09:58,580
这种回撤遇到也没什么太大问题

225
00:09:58,580 --> 00:10:00,850
因为多头非常的强势

226
00:10:00,850 --> 00:10:03,470
但还有一种极为乐观情形继续涨哈

227
00:10:03,470 --> 00:10:05,940
就不给你就不就不给你回撤哈

228
00:10:05,940 --> 00:10:08,100
明显的回撤也有这种情况

229
00:10:08,100 --> 00:10:12,039
因为美股里边有很多股都是直勾勾的上涨

230
00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:12,759
好

231
00:10:12,759 --> 00:10:15,159
这是这个我们回到我们的列表

232
00:10:15,159 --> 00:10:16,960
那我们受此驱动呢

233
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:18,240
我们看我们的啊

234
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:19,799
这些股都在涨啊

235
00:10:19,799 --> 00:10:21,500
那我们看一下SMCI吧

236
00:10:21,500 --> 00:10:24,700
我们说这个图呢有可能是一个大型的底部架构

237
00:10:24,700 --> 00:10:27,759
那之前的缺口呢有可能是衰竭性的了是吧

238
00:10:27,759 --> 00:10:30,379
诶我们这个图呢其实关注了好久啊

239
00:10:30,379 --> 00:10:33,639
从这边财务上的问题到后边一些什么问题

240
00:10:33,639 --> 00:10:35,279
最近又出现什么问题

241
00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:37,828
这公司消息面比较多

242
00:10:37,828 --> 00:10:39,188
而且偏负面哈

243
00:10:39,188 --> 00:10:40,489
突然给你搞一下

244
00:10:40,489 --> 00:10:42,850
所以大家要注意这种图的风险啊

245
00:10:42,850 --> 00:10:45,509
不过这个目前的技术面应该看涨啊

246
00:10:47,470 --> 00:10:49,009
我们看一下英伟达好

247
00:10:49,009 --> 00:10:52,029
英伟达今天是非常漂亮的大阳线

248
00:10:52,029 --> 00:10:52,769
那估计呢

249
00:10:52,769 --> 00:10:56,019
下周呢将尝试突破这个最高位的阻力区

250
00:10:56,019 --> 00:10:57,519
212这一袋

251
00:10:57,519 --> 00:11:00,039
今天是收到了208这一袋哈

252
00:11:00,039 --> 00:11:01,100
阳线强吗

253
00:11:01,100 --> 00:11:03,928
强看一下日内的情况好

254
00:11:03,928 --> 00:11:05,500
非常的漂亮哈

255
00:11:05,500 --> 00:11:06,960
空头是小空头啊

256
00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,019
你看多头长得高

257
00:11:09,019 --> 00:11:13,009
空头回落的浅表明多头更强势

258
00:11:13,009 --> 00:11:14,090
能踩顶吗

259
00:11:14,090 --> 00:11:15,370
不能

260
00:11:17,139 --> 00:11:19,120
好这是这几个哈

261
00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:20,820
那我们看一下软件股吧

262
00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:23,299
啊大空头他也不是纯空头哈

263
00:11:23,299 --> 00:11:27,068
他只是一个历史上的一个一个标签而已

264
00:11:27,068 --> 00:11:29,659
给他贴了一个大空头哈这个角色哈

265
00:11:29,659 --> 00:11:32,000
但实际上人家既做多又做空啊

266
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:32,659
时而做多

267
00:11:32,659 --> 00:11:33,379
时而做空

268
00:11:33,379 --> 00:11:35,109
不同的图有不同的做法

269
00:11:35,109 --> 00:11:36,068
那对于微软来说

270
00:11:36,068 --> 00:11:37,308
我们说要抄底哈

271
00:11:37,308 --> 00:11:39,149
他也是要做多软件股的

272
00:11:39,149 --> 00:11:41,590
因为啊这波回撤差不多了哈

273
00:11:41,590 --> 00:11:43,070
说现在还能做吗

274
00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:43,690
是的呀

275
00:11:43,690 --> 00:11:44,549
为什么不能呢

276
00:11:45,710 --> 00:11:45,990
对吧

277
00:11:45,990 --> 00:11:47,799
微软你怕啥呢

278
00:11:47,799 --> 00:11:50,559
好但是他也要做空这个硬件股哈

279
00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,539
这个我就很难说了

280
00:11:52,539 --> 00:11:54,320
说长期来说硬件不行

281
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,399
但是长期来说硬件一直在迭代更新啊

282
00:11:57,399 --> 00:11:59,220
还要啊不断的

283
00:11:59,220 --> 00:12:02,970
这个就是说每几年要重新替换一批嘛

284
00:12:02,970 --> 00:12:07,259
因为有有有这个消耗周期是吧

285
00:12:07,539 --> 00:12:10,220
以后啊硬件和软件都很非常重要哈

286
00:12:10,220 --> 00:12:12,320
特别是硬件硬件也很重要

287
00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,379
还要定期更换的呀

288
00:12:14,539 --> 00:12:15,840
好这是这些

289
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,139
我们看一下PENTATER应该做啥呀

290
00:12:18,139 --> 00:12:19,080
做多唉

291
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,360
说明这根阴线是一个小回调哈

292
00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,620
相对于这波大型的上涨腿来说

293
00:12:23,620 --> 00:12:25,039
这是一个回调

294
00:12:25,039 --> 00:12:26,820
我们看下它的15分钟图

295
00:12:26,820 --> 00:12:29,159
说这些图都是抄底正当时吧

296
00:12:29,159 --> 00:12:30,240
不然的

297
00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,700
其实抄底中大师早就抄底中大师了哈

298
00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:36,159
只不过啊现在还是对吧

299
00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:38,470
还是好

300
00:12:38,470 --> 00:12:39,669
我们看下特斯拉

301
00:12:39,669 --> 00:12:41,110
这特斯拉还能做多吗

302
00:12:41,110 --> 00:12:41,549
能啊

303
00:12:41,549 --> 00:12:44,568
网友说哎呀哎呀做多是的

304
00:12:44,568 --> 00:12:45,849
不然做啥呢

305
00:12:45,849 --> 00:12:47,288
后续呢我们要关注space

306
00:12:47,288 --> 00:12:51,528
ex上市跟他的一个关联度哈的影响是吧

307
00:12:52,019 --> 00:12:54,440
好我们看下的15分钟图额

308
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,360
今天多头呢小多头啊

309
00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:57,720
不是太强势啊

310
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,159
我们希望多头强势的拉起来会好一点

311
00:13:01,350 --> 00:13:03,590
看一下日线也是一样啊

312
00:13:03,590 --> 00:13:05,490
希望日线的多头啊

313
00:13:05,490 --> 00:13:07,169
阳线大一点会好一点

314
00:13:07,169 --> 00:13:11,500
嗯好这是这个嗯

315
00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:12,820
我们看一下谁呢

316
00:13:12,820 --> 00:13:14,068
我们看一下苹果吧

317
00:13:14,068 --> 00:13:15,349
啊苹果这没事啊

318
00:13:15,349 --> 00:13:17,328
微微的波动了一丢丢哈

319
00:13:17,328 --> 00:13:18,928
整体问题不大啊

320
00:13:18,928 --> 00:13:19,708
问题不大

321
00:13:19,708 --> 00:13:21,889
我们看下它的日内啊

322
00:13:21,889 --> 00:13:23,190
空头是比较弱势的

323
00:13:23,190 --> 00:13:23,769
回调哈

324
00:13:23,769 --> 00:13:25,669
你看拉升回调是吧

325
00:13:25,669 --> 00:13:26,909
之前都是拉升回落

326
00:13:26,909 --> 00:13:27,850
拉升回落

327
00:13:27,850 --> 00:13:29,080
空头不抢

328
00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,840
应该继续做多

329
00:13:32,519 --> 00:13:33,659
好嘞嗯

330
00:13:33,659 --> 00:13:36,929
那么最后呢也欢迎大家看我们的会员视频哈

331
00:13:36,929 --> 00:13:38,730
今天是周五周末哈

332
00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:40,509
我们要录制两期会员内容

333
00:13:40,509 --> 00:13:42,090
高级会员是下边哈

334
00:13:42,090 --> 00:13:43,899
好我们待会儿见

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