1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,780
女士们先生们
2
00:00:00,780 --> 00:00:02,240
准备好迎接一场猛兽级视频了吗
3
00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:03,560
今天给大家带来一首劲爆视频
4
00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:05,540
朋友们我今天有新东西要分享
5
00:00:05,540 --> 00:00:05,919
好的
6
00:00:05,919 --> 00:00:07,870
所以公众持仓连续上涨
7
00:00:07,870 --> 00:00:08,509
好日子又回来了
8
00:00:08,509 --> 00:00:09,130
我们继续前进
9
00:00:09,130 --> 00:00:12,039
今日公众持仓上涨至23000美元
10
00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:14,339
昨日上涨92000美元后
11
00:00:14,339 --> 00:00:17,140
公众持仓明显持续攀升
12
00:00:17,140 --> 00:00:18,379
我已在X平台发布了这条动态
13
00:00:18,379 --> 00:00:19,339
你们想关注我的X账号吗
14
00:00:19,339 --> 00:00:21,839
所有视频描述区都有链接
15
00:00:21,839 --> 00:00:22,519
我发布了这条动态
16
00:00:22,519 --> 00:00:26,989
我说AMD可能在四个月内涨到300-400美元
17
00:00:26,989 --> 00:00:29,789
很少有人理解 hype cycle 的速度
18
00:00:29,789 --> 00:00:31,190
以及它带来的疯狂程度
19
00:00:31,190 --> 00:00:34,009
英伟达发布了劲爆财报
20
00:00:34,009 --> 00:00:35,049
劲爆财报发布
21
00:00:35,049 --> 00:00:35,789
女士们先生们
22
00:00:35,789 --> 00:00:36,969
然而天啊
23
00:00:36,969 --> 00:00:37,049
天啊
24
00:00:37,049 --> 00:00:37,560
天啊
25
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:38,920
这情况有点乏味
26
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:40,340
股价几乎不动
27
00:00:40,340 --> 00:00:41,179
Salesforce
28
00:00:41,179 --> 00:00:42,100
他们讨厌它
29
00:00:42,100 --> 00:00:44,329
他们如此厌恶这只股票
30
00:00:44,329 --> 00:00:45,990
简直无法忍受
31
00:00:45,990 --> 00:00:48,289
财报发布后股价下跌
32
00:00:48,289 --> 00:00:52,009
交易盘遭重创跌至20美元
33
00:00:52,009 --> 00:00:52,709
每股
34
00:00:52,709 --> 00:00:56,408
几个月前这只股票还90美元
35
00:00:56,408 --> 00:00:57,868
女士们先生们 真是刺痛
36
00:00:57,868 --> 00:00:58,548
那里发生了什么
37
00:00:58,548 --> 00:00:59,789
他们的财报已公布
38
00:00:59,789 --> 00:01:02,009
Snowflake股票盘后下跌
39
00:01:02,009 --> 00:01:04,209
这只股票曾高达275美元
40
00:01:04,209 --> 00:01:05,629
就在万圣节后
41
00:01:05,629 --> 00:01:07,750
此后情况令人胆寒
42
00:01:07,750 --> 00:01:08,989
宛如恐怖电影
43
00:01:08,989 --> 00:01:11,329
C3AI 说到恐怖电影
44
00:01:11,329 --> 00:01:12,739
天啊
45
00:01:12,739 --> 00:01:13,540
这就是这只股票
46
00:01:13,540 --> 00:01:16,000
几年前曾与Palantir相提并论
47
00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,140
看看这只股票2023年的走势
48
00:01:18,140 --> 00:01:18,659
当时
49
00:01:18,659 --> 00:01:20,040
每股3.6美元
50
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:21,540
盘后股价8美元
51
00:01:21,540 --> 00:01:22,840
股票遭到重创
52
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:24,519
他们的财报结果很诚实
53
00:01:24,519 --> 00:01:25,879
我最爱的两美元查克
54
00:01:25,879 --> 00:01:27,319
刚刚公布了财报
55
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:28,599
它依然是两美元查克
56
00:01:28,599 --> 00:01:29,620
即使在这些财报之后
57
00:01:29,620 --> 00:01:30,079
好的
58
00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:31,120
在这段视频中
59
00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:32,239
朋友们我们有很多内容要讨论
60
00:01:32,239 --> 00:01:32,980
这可是头号猛兽
61
00:01:32,980 --> 00:01:33,599
首先
62
00:01:33,599 --> 00:01:34,379
英伟达
63
00:01:34,379 --> 00:01:36,359
第二Salesforce第三
64
00:01:36,359 --> 00:01:37,200
Snowflake
65
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:38,060
第四交易
66
00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:38,500
Desk
67
00:01:38,500 --> 00:01:39,000
第五
68
00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,510
C三AI六
69
00:01:40,510 --> 00:01:42,569
诚实且第七个主题我们将在
70
00:01:42,569 --> 00:01:44,909
今天这段视频中介绍一只优质的小盘股
71
00:01:44,909 --> 00:01:46,049
一只绝佳的股票
72
00:01:46,049 --> 00:01:47,668
他们的财报昨天出炉
73
00:01:47,668 --> 00:01:50,769
除了我没人谈论这个
74
00:01:50,769 --> 00:01:52,609
我在这只股票上已获利翻倍
75
00:01:52,609 --> 00:01:55,269
我认为接下来的翻倍就在不远处
76
00:01:55,269 --> 00:01:56,329
大约一年左右
77
00:01:56,329 --> 00:01:58,719
今天在这段视频中我要分享这只股票
78
00:01:58,719 --> 00:02:01,159
以及我为何如此兴奋和背后的数字
79
00:02:01,159 --> 00:02:02,099
因为这不仅仅像
80
00:02:02,099 --> 00:02:04,760
哦只是说说这家公司背后的数字
81
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,760
好的他们的数据表现惊人
82
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:07,349
好的
83
00:02:07,349 --> 00:02:08,909
感谢大家观看
84
00:02:08,909 --> 00:02:10,590
我只需要你们做一件事
85
00:02:10,590 --> 00:02:12,810
车库门口有个牌子写着
86
00:02:12,810 --> 00:02:18,060
点击订阅和点赞按钮并签到我的车库
87
00:02:18,060 --> 00:02:19,400
我要搬到新家了
88
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:20,520
当我们搬到新家时
89
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:21,719
这就是我需要你们做的
90
00:02:21,719 --> 00:02:22,180
如果可以的话
91
00:02:22,180 --> 00:02:24,110
请点一下那个赞按钮
92
00:02:24,110 --> 00:02:25,229
记得订阅频道
93
00:02:25,229 --> 00:02:27,310
我非常感谢你们留言
94
00:02:27,310 --> 00:02:29,030
如果你想加入我的私有股票群组
95
00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:29,949
我的私人财富群组
96
00:02:29,949 --> 00:02:31,000
所有这类内容
97
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:32,680
加入我们六位数
98
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:33,280
七位数
99
00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:34,080
八位数会员
100
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,500
这就是下方的置顶评论
101
00:02:35,500 --> 00:02:38,060
访问所有我的高级课程教材
102
00:02:38,060 --> 00:02:40,120
这样你可以全面了解这款游戏
103
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:40,819
《头脑特工队》
104
00:02:40,819 --> 00:02:41,979
获取一千倍股票
105
00:02:41,979 --> 00:02:42,500
点.com
106
00:02:42,500 --> 00:02:43,919
访问Discord聊天室
107
00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:44,919
独家每周视频
108
00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,560
我昨天或前天刚录了私密群视频
109
00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:49,840
所以所有优质内容
110
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好的
111
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,159
听着,Invidia
112
00:02:54,159 --> 00:02:56,020
正是我预料他们会做的
113
00:02:56,020 --> 00:02:56,800
如果你观看频道
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你大概了解我的观点
115
00:02:58,139 --> 00:02:59,840
我以为他们会超预期盈利
116
00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,400
但我觉得他们的指引会很亮眼
117
00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,139
没错,这正是他们做的
118
00:03:04,139 --> 00:03:04,740
他们超预期盈利了
119
00:03:04,740 --> 00:03:06,099
并没有带来震撼
120
00:03:06,099 --> 00:03:07,699
在上季度财报中
121
00:03:07,699 --> 00:03:08,659
但整体表现令人意外
122
00:03:08,659 --> 00:03:09,639
在指引部分
123
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没错
124
00:03:10,060 --> 00:03:13,219
每股收益62美元,而预期是153美元
125
00:03:13,219 --> 00:03:14,780
营收达到680亿美元
126
00:03:14,780 --> 00:03:16,259
预期为660亿美元
127
00:03:16,259 --> 00:03:17,539
公司表现非常稳健
128
00:03:17,539 --> 00:03:19,620
真正令人震惊的是指引部分
129
00:03:19,620 --> 00:03:21,500
这正是我预料会发生的情况
130
00:03:21,500 --> 00:03:23,719
关于NVIDIA的指引
131
00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:24,699
远超我的预期
132
00:03:24,699 --> 00:03:25,460
NVIDIA宣布
133
00:03:25,460 --> 00:03:29,800
第一季度营收预计达780亿美元
134
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,199
正负2%浮动
135
00:03:31,199 --> 00:03:34,740
除非我们预期720亿美元
136
00:03:35,300 --> 00:03:36,599
这简直太惊人了
137
00:03:36,599 --> 00:03:37,659
这简直太震撼了
138
00:03:37,659 --> 00:03:40,280
这就是最好的结果,看看这个
139
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:44,229
这份出色的损益表获得A++评级
140
00:03:44,229 --> 00:03:46,229
本财报季真是令人惊叹
141
00:03:46,229 --> 00:03:47,688
没错,Palantir也做到了
142
00:03:47,688 --> 00:03:48,829
NVIDIA同样表现优异
143
00:03:48,829 --> 00:03:49,128
哦
144
00:03:49,128 --> 00:03:49,860
天啊
145
00:03:49,860 --> 00:03:55,829
营收同比增长73%,成本增长60%
146
00:03:55,829 --> 00:03:56,429
这太棒了
147
00:03:56,429 --> 00:03:58,109
如果营收增长73%
148
00:03:58,109 --> 00:03:59,468
成本增长60%
149
00:03:59,468 --> 00:04:00,139
你就赢了
150
00:04:00,139 --> 00:04:02,800
毛利率同比激增78%
151
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,819
三个月内净利润增长了一倍,达到十亿美元
152
00:04:06,819 --> 00:04:07,539
你得翻倍了
153
00:04:07,539 --> 00:04:08,269
我的煎饼
154
00:04:08,269 --> 00:04:09,688
研发费用同比上涨四
155
00:04:09,688 --> 00:04:11,008
公司研发费用年同比增长8%
156
00:04:11,008 --> 00:04:14,688
当营收增长73%时,这个数字完全可行
157
00:04:14,688 --> 00:04:16,468
如果营收也下降到
158
00:04:16,468 --> 00:04:18,899
假设降到20%对吧
159
00:04:18,899 --> 00:04:19,839
25%
160
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,959
而研发费用仍以50%的速度增长
161
00:04:21,959 --> 00:04:23,399
那我们就有问题了对吧
162
00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:24,319
但目前
163
00:04:24,319 --> 00:04:26,029
一切销售和销售
164
00:04:26,029 --> 00:04:26,990
一般行政费用
165
00:04:26,990 --> 00:04:27,290
呃
166
00:04:27,290 --> 00:04:27,829
SG&A
167
00:04:27,829 --> 00:04:30,129
公司SG&A费用同比上涨32%
168
00:04:30,129 --> 00:04:30,569
再次强调
169
00:04:30,569 --> 00:04:32,569
营收已增长73%
170
00:04:32,569 --> 00:04:33,379
32%
171
00:04:33,379 --> 00:04:38,480
SG&A费用年同比增长45%
172
00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,060
毛利率78%
173
00:04:40,060 --> 00:04:40,939
所以接下来会发生什么
174
00:04:40,939 --> 00:04:42,500
营业利润
175
00:04:42,660 --> 00:04:46,100
营业利润将实现84%的同比增长
176
00:04:46,100 --> 00:04:47,639
同比达到四
177
00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:50,490
从20亿增长到40亿
178
00:04:50,490 --> 00:04:51,629
40亿美元
179
00:04:51,629 --> 00:04:53,209
天啊
180
00:04:53,209 --> 00:04:54,870
他们还有这部分其他收入
181
00:04:54,870 --> 00:04:58,350
同比增长665%
182
00:04:58,350 --> 00:04:58,769
好的
183
00:04:58,769 --> 00:04:59,569
总体而言
184
00:04:59,569 --> 00:05:03,170
其他收入同比激增415%
185
00:05:03,170 --> 00:05:09,619
税前利润同比暴涨100%至500亿美元
186
00:05:09,619 --> 00:05:11,879
去年同期为50亿美元
187
00:05:12,199 --> 00:05:13,538
天啊
188
00:05:13,538 --> 00:05:16,738
净利润年同比增长95%
189
00:05:16,738 --> 00:05:22,879
摊薄每股收益年同比增长98%
190
00:05:22,879 --> 00:05:26,600
天啊
191
00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,040
你开玩笑吧,每股76美元
192
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:30,860
0.89美元
193
00:05:30,860 --> 00:05:31,639
难以置信
194
00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:33,300
这已是巅峰表现
195
00:05:33,300 --> 00:05:34,660
这已是巅峰表现
196
00:05:34,660 --> 00:05:36,180
载入史册
197
00:05:36,180 --> 00:05:38,259
但股价到底怎么了
198
00:05:38,259 --> 00:05:39,600
在强劲财报指引下
199
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:44,199
股价却停滞不前
200
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,759
强劲财报指引下股价仍原地踏步
201
00:05:46,759 --> 00:05:48,240
这里到底发生了什么
202
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:48,879
嗯
203
00:05:48,879 --> 00:05:50,279
让我解释一下
204
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:51,279
如果你还记得的话
205
00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:52,920
我想是去年或前年
206
00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,079
我曾预测视频领域将陷入停滞
207
00:05:55,079 --> 00:05:57,160
在125到200之间徘徊多年
208
00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:57,939
没错
209
00:05:57,939 --> 00:05:59,620
大概在200左右对吧
210
00:05:59,620 --> 00:06:01,500
就像Palantir那样
211
00:06:01,500 --> 00:06:06,750
原因在于我们这里的情况
212
00:06:06,750 --> 00:06:10,230
所有人都知道这些数字很出色
213
00:06:10,230 --> 00:06:11,790
并且会继续保持
214
00:06:11,790 --> 00:06:12,529
你知道的
215
00:06:12,529 --> 00:06:14,449
但我们理解
216
00:06:14,449 --> 00:06:17,899
增长率即将迅速下降
217
00:06:19,220 --> 00:06:21,920
在未来一到两年内
218
00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:22,548
没错
219
00:06:22,548 --> 00:06:24,309
这种震撼增长
220
00:06:24,309 --> 00:06:26,009
像70%的增长率
221
00:06:26,009 --> 00:06:27,108
它们必须结束
222
00:06:27,108 --> 00:06:28,069
为什么必须结束
223
00:06:28,069 --> 00:06:31,100
因为公司没有太多空间
224
00:06:31,100 --> 00:06:33,139
有几个原因,其中一个就是
225
00:06:33,139 --> 00:06:35,620
公司没有太多余地继续扩张
226
00:06:35,620 --> 00:06:37,839
未来几年疯狂增加资本支出
227
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,178
这纯粹是数学问题
228
00:06:39,178 --> 00:06:40,218
看看亚马逊
229
00:06:40,218 --> 00:06:41,838
刚公布的资本支出数据
230
00:06:41,838 --> 00:06:42,098
兄弟
231
00:06:42,098 --> 00:06:43,480
他们没有空间
232
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,680
然后明年把资本支出翻到300或400亿
233
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:47,180
他们做不到
234
00:06:47,180 --> 00:06:48,100
他们做不到
235
00:06:48,100 --> 00:06:50,519
除非想用债务压满资产负债表
236
00:06:50,519 --> 00:06:51,740
他们不会这么做的
237
00:06:52,569 --> 00:06:54,089
谷歌这些公司
238
00:06:54,089 --> 00:06:56,089
都没有疯狂扩张的空间
239
00:06:56,089 --> 00:06:58,529
在2027和2028年
240
00:06:58,529 --> 00:06:59,649
如果他们增加
241
00:06:59,649 --> 00:07:01,540
增长会非常温和
242
00:07:01,540 --> 00:07:03,480
这使得英伟达的增长
243
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,750
猜猜看,非常温和
244
00:07:05,750 --> 00:07:09,050
但这不是唯一问题,这里有个大问题
245
00:07:09,050 --> 00:07:11,360
这对英伟达是个大问题
246
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:16,079
过去几年英伟达无需担心竞争对手
247
00:07:16,079 --> 00:07:19,480
无需担心市场份额被侵蚀
248
00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,319
无需担心利润率被压缩
249
00:07:23,319 --> 00:07:25,019
或类似情况
250
00:07:25,019 --> 00:07:26,220
那些日子已经过去了
251
00:07:26,220 --> 00:07:32,259
女士们先生们,三个月后我们将超过这位女士
252
00:07:32,259 --> 00:07:35,819
接下来两三年内这里将是一个重大视频问题
253
00:07:35,819 --> 00:07:40,120
原因在于amd的营收即将爆发式增长
254
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:40,720
好的
255
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,060
由于450系列芯片
256
00:07:42,060 --> 00:07:45,120
之后自然会转向500系列产品对吧
257
00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,639
接下来会发生什么
258
00:07:46,639 --> 00:07:51,360
猜猜哪些公司在今年后将增加资本支出
259
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:55,600
亚马逊、Meta、谷歌甚至下半年的大部分支出
260
00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,120
这笔资金将流入amd的口袋
261
00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,538
天下没有免费的午餐
262
00:08:00,538 --> 00:08:02,858
amd的营收将飙升
263
00:08:02,858 --> 00:08:04,619
不会凭空产生
264
00:08:05,699 --> 00:08:08,839
这是nvidia本该获得的资金
265
00:08:08,839 --> 00:08:11,100
现在amd将获得这笔资金
266
00:08:11,100 --> 00:08:13,839
最终不会出现
267
00:08:13,839 --> 00:08:16,220
nvidia营收开始下滑的情况
268
00:08:16,220 --> 00:08:17,658
因为这不是
269
00:08:17,658 --> 00:08:22,300
不会出现所有公司今年后资本支出停滞
270
00:08:22,300 --> 00:08:23,540
但如果在视频领域发生
271
00:08:23,540 --> 00:08:26,980
营收将直接下降因为amd将抢占市场份额
272
00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:29,019
无论未来几年如何
273
00:08:29,019 --> 00:08:29,490
对吧
274
00:08:29,490 --> 00:08:34,210
但资本支出增长将变得非常常规
275
00:08:34,210 --> 00:08:36,230
对于亚马逊、Meta、谷歌这些公司
276
00:08:36,230 --> 00:08:38,450
从2027年及以后
277
00:08:38,450 --> 00:08:39,690
因为这是数学问题
278
00:08:39,690 --> 00:08:42,090
他们无法继续疯狂扩张对吧
279
00:08:42,090 --> 00:08:43,529
再次加倍资本支出
280
00:08:43,529 --> 00:08:45,049
或再增长50%
281
00:08:45,049 --> 00:08:48,850
amd将大量吞噬
282
00:08:48,850 --> 00:08:49,389
你知道的
283
00:08:49,389 --> 00:08:50,370
nvidia的利润
284
00:08:50,370 --> 00:08:52,309
在未来几年他们本该获得的
285
00:08:52,309 --> 00:08:54,320
我们已在股价中看到这一点
286
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:54,879
并非如此
287
00:08:54,879 --> 00:08:56,919
我不是唯一发现这个的人
288
00:08:56,919 --> 00:08:58,139
市场已经理解这一点
289
00:08:58,139 --> 00:08:59,460
这是高盛四月报告
290
00:08:59,460 --> 00:09:00,539
2025年低点
291
00:09:00,539 --> 00:09:01,929
回想此前
292
00:09:01,929 --> 00:09:05,210
nvidia重挫amd股价
293
00:09:05,210 --> 00:09:06,659
差距悬殊对吧
294
00:09:06,659 --> 00:09:10,940
但去年开始amd在多周期趋势中显著超越
295
00:09:10,940 --> 00:09:13,100
nvidia的表现
296
00:09:13,100 --> 00:09:13,960
本质上就是这样
297
00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,440
从四月低点以来
298
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,860
amd股价上涨约170%
299
00:09:18,860 --> 00:09:21,120
nvidia股价上涨约103%
300
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,000
两者均表现优异
301
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:23,379
但显然amd的
302
00:09:23,379 --> 00:09:23,860
你知道的
303
00:09:23,860 --> 00:09:25,340
而这种超越表现
304
00:09:25,340 --> 00:09:27,659
女士们先生们,情况即将变得更加极端
305
00:09:27,659 --> 00:09:31,110
英伟达陷入非常艰难的境地
306
00:09:31,110 --> 00:09:32,750
好的,接下来我们转向Salesforce
307
00:09:32,750 --> 00:09:34,649
至于这些其他话题让我解释一下
308
00:09:34,649 --> 00:09:36,169
因为这对amd也很重要
309
00:09:36,169 --> 00:09:38,409
投资者们需要理解这一点关于amd
310
00:09:38,409 --> 00:09:40,299
英伟达陷入困境了
311
00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:41,720
他们该怎么办
312
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,940
amd即将开始大量抢夺你们的收入
313
00:09:45,940 --> 00:09:50,259
所以你面临要么放任不管
314
00:09:50,259 --> 00:09:51,879
这就是现状
315
00:09:51,879 --> 00:10:00,350
要么努力反击大幅降价以压倒他们
316
00:10:00,350 --> 00:10:03,099
这会摧毁你的利润率
317
00:10:03,259 --> 00:10:07,509
突然间看起来你失去了定价权
318
00:10:07,509 --> 00:10:10,129
从掌控这些惊人利润率
319
00:10:10,129 --> 00:10:12,940
而英伟达过去几年一直如此
320
00:10:12,940 --> 00:10:14,700
我不想说利润差
321
00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:16,120
但利润率并不理想
322
00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,589
没错因为我们知道amd在价格上让步
323
00:10:19,589 --> 00:10:21,249
他们提供战略合作
324
00:10:21,249 --> 00:10:23,389
企业将获得公司股权
325
00:10:23,389 --> 00:10:24,869
只要履行这些承诺
326
00:10:24,869 --> 00:10:25,428
比如Meta
327
00:10:25,428 --> 00:10:25,828
比如OpenAI
328
00:10:25,828 --> 00:10:26,729
人工智能领域
329
00:10:26,729 --> 00:10:29,289
所以英伟达处境艰难
330
00:10:29,289 --> 00:10:30,450
这家公司实力强劲
331
00:10:30,450 --> 00:10:31,409
他们的产品非常出色
332
00:10:31,409 --> 00:10:32,889
我们都知道原因所在
333
00:10:32,889 --> 00:10:35,190
这家公司市值接近五万亿美元
334
00:10:35,190 --> 00:10:39,100
但所有人都开始意识到
335
00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:39,940
天啊
336
00:10:39,940 --> 00:10:43,070
这些增长速度将变得平淡无奇
337
00:10:43,070 --> 00:10:48,000
他们终于即将面临三个月后的竞争
338
00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,200
这让你陷入奇怪的局面
339
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,360
这就是为何没人愿意买入英伟达
340
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,200
你知道他们发布了惊人消息
341
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:55,580
最终
342
00:10:55,580 --> 00:10:57,349
股票有什么表现
343
00:10:57,349 --> 00:10:59,548
他们发布了完美财报
344
00:10:59,548 --> 00:11:00,408
财报
345
00:11:00,408 --> 00:11:03,649
完美财报,股票有何表现
346
00:11:03,649 --> 00:11:06,549
这说明投资者更青睐
347
00:11:06,549 --> 00:11:07,169
是的
348
00:11:07,169 --> 00:11:07,750
太棒了
349
00:11:07,750 --> 00:11:09,570
但我们知道接下来会发生什么
350
00:11:09,570 --> 00:11:11,690
我们知道接下来会发生什么
351
00:11:11,690 --> 00:11:12,929
销售团队
352
00:11:12,929 --> 00:11:14,429
然后我们得到一个雪花交易解
353
00:11:14,429 --> 00:11:15,250
三个AI诚实
354
00:11:15,250 --> 00:11:16,629
和一只优质小盘股
355
00:11:16,629 --> 00:11:17,409
一只炸裂的股票
356
00:11:17,409 --> 00:11:17,909
好的
357
00:11:17,909 --> 00:11:19,068
Salesforce
358
00:11:19,068 --> 00:11:20,129
Salesforce
359
00:11:20,129 --> 00:11:22,068
每股收益达到三美元
360
00:11:22,068 --> 00:11:23,149
调整后为八十一美分
361
00:11:23,149 --> 00:11:23,749
记住这一点
362
00:11:23,749 --> 00:11:25,009
第三或第四节符合预期
363
00:11:25,009 --> 00:11:27,289
营收勉强超预期
364
00:11:27,289 --> 00:11:28,350
这里的数据符合预期
365
00:11:28,350 --> 00:11:29,649
所以不算特别激动人心
366
00:11:29,649 --> 00:11:31,929
这里Salesforce的数字
367
00:11:31,929 --> 00:11:32,500
没错
368
00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:34,139
就指引情况来看
369
00:11:34,139 --> 00:11:36,080
第一季度指引包括三
370
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:36,460
呃
371
00:11:36,460 --> 00:11:38,080
三美元十一美分至三美元十三美分
372
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,110
调整后每股收益为十一美元
373
00:11:41,110 --> 00:11:41,649
三亿美元
374
00:11:41,649 --> 00:11:42,809
十一美元
375
00:11:42,809 --> 00:11:43,590
八亿美元
376
00:11:43,590 --> 00:11:46,740
分析师预期每股三美元
377
00:11:46,740 --> 00:11:50,220
这里小幅超预期且指引为十点
378
00:11:50,220 --> 00:11:50,440
九
379
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,578
九亿美元所以全年小幅超预期
380
00:11:53,578 --> 00:11:55,318
Salesforce预计十三
381
00:11:55,318 --> 00:11:55,879
你知道的
382
00:11:55,879 --> 00:11:57,678
暂定十三点一
383
00:11:57,678 --> 00:11:59,318
五亿美元营收
384
00:11:59,318 --> 00:12:00,929
我本以为是十三
385
00:12:00,929 --> 00:12:02,470
十三美元十五美分
386
00:12:02,470 --> 00:12:03,029
每股收益
387
00:12:03,029 --> 00:12:04,149
大致正确
388
00:12:04,149 --> 00:12:05,830
分析师预期十三点二
389
00:12:05,830 --> 00:12:06,789
这不是大问题
390
00:12:06,789 --> 00:12:07,809
差距不大
391
00:12:07,809 --> 00:12:08,379
对
392
00:12:08,379 --> 00:12:09,620
就营收而言
393
00:12:09,620 --> 00:12:10,860
营收基本
394
00:12:10,860 --> 00:12:11,980
Salesforce约四
395
00:12:11,980 --> 00:12:13,639
预计营收六亿美元
396
00:12:13,639 --> 00:12:14,139
没错
397
00:12:14,139 --> 00:12:15,159
指引内容
398
00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:16,840
你知道的
399
00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:17,500
有点像
400
00:12:17,500 --> 00:12:18,480
我们预期
401
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:19,860
所以我们有了困倦的向导
402
00:12:19,860 --> 00:12:20,919
困倦的节奏
403
00:12:20,919 --> 00:12:23,019
这对普通股票来说根本不够
404
00:12:23,019 --> 00:12:24,580
现在人们都感到恐慌
405
00:12:24,580 --> 00:12:25,360
我们直接说吧
406
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:25,940
这就是真相
407
00:12:25,940 --> 00:12:28,240
你不能带着困倦的向导和节奏入场
408
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:28,919
当你知道的时候
409
00:12:28,919 --> 00:12:29,899
华尔街很害怕
410
00:12:29,899 --> 00:12:32,080
他们现在很恐惧对吧
411
00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:33,799
我这样告诉你
412
00:12:33,799 --> 00:12:35,080
你有个小宝宝
413
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:36,639
小宝宝醒来
414
00:12:36,639 --> 00:12:38,259
他们做了噩梦对吧
415
00:12:38,259 --> 00:12:39,720
他们需要的不只是
416
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:40,399
没关系
417
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:41,389
回去睡觉吧
418
00:12:41,389 --> 00:12:42,830
那只是个梦对吧
419
00:12:42,830 --> 00:12:43,730
有时候小宝宝
420
00:12:43,730 --> 00:12:45,090
你需要带他们回房间
421
00:12:45,090 --> 00:12:45,990
握住他们的手
422
00:12:45,990 --> 00:12:47,370
帮他们躺回床上
423
00:12:47,370 --> 00:12:48,289
陪他们一会儿
424
00:12:48,289 --> 00:12:49,750
打开夜灯对吧
425
00:12:49,750 --> 00:12:50,710
让他们感到安心
426
00:12:51,909 --> 00:12:53,379
这就是你需要做的
427
00:12:53,379 --> 00:12:54,720
Salesforce需要这样做
428
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,440
而Salesforce没有入场
429
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:57,519
砸碎一切
430
00:12:57,519 --> 00:12:59,409
他们没有砸碎指引数据
431
00:12:59,409 --> 00:13:01,629
他们没有砸碎上季度财报
432
00:13:01,629 --> 00:13:02,889
这就像
433
00:13:02,889 --> 00:13:04,110
它就在那里
434
00:13:04,389 --> 00:13:05,110
嗯
435
00:13:05,110 --> 00:13:06,470
或许轻微超预期
436
00:13:06,470 --> 00:13:09,318
这无法让华尔街安心
437
00:13:09,318 --> 00:13:11,578
华尔街现在非常不安
438
00:13:11,578 --> 00:13:14,509
投资者极度不安,这就是股价下跌的原因
439
00:13:14,509 --> 00:13:18,990
而这支股票本应因财报大幅上涨
440
00:13:18,990 --> 00:13:24,799
但你只给出微小超预期,人们却说不
441
00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:25,740
我们依然害怕
442
00:13:25,740 --> 00:13:26,840
所以我们不会买入
443
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,470
甚至现在应该卖出
444
00:13:29,470 --> 00:13:30,750
你需要好消息
445
00:13:30,750 --> 00:13:32,870
我这里有好消息
446
00:13:32,870 --> 00:13:33,169
好的
447
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:34,110
听着
448
00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:37,110
Salesforce从其在Anthropic的股份中获益
449
00:13:37,110 --> 00:13:37,809
如果你不知道的话
450
00:13:37,809 --> 00:13:40,289
Salesforce是Anthropic的股东
451
00:13:40,289 --> 00:13:44,769
本季度在战略投资中实现八亿一千一百万美元的收益
452
00:13:44,769 --> 00:13:46,710
相比去年同期的六千六百万美元大幅增长
453
00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:48,068
去年同一季度
454
00:13:48,068 --> 00:13:49,469
这是本尼在发表讲话
455
00:13:49,469 --> 00:13:50,028
或者对吧
456
00:13:50,028 --> 00:13:50,708
本尼正在这里讲话
457
00:13:50,708 --> 00:13:51,149
他说
458
00:13:51,149 --> 00:13:54,740
我认为我们刚向新轮融资投入了一亿美元
459
00:13:54,740 --> 00:13:57,500
我们在Anthropic的投资已达三亿三千万美元
460
00:13:57,500 --> 00:13:58,919
就已投入资金而言
461
00:13:58,919 --> 00:14:00,960
这几乎占Anthropic的1%
462
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,120
他们持有Anthropic约1%的股份
463
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:03,460
这
464
00:14:03,460 --> 00:14:04,100
你知道的
465
00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:07,200
如果认为Anthropic即将达到千亿美元估值
466
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:07,929
长期来看
467
00:14:07,929 --> 00:14:08,250
嗯
468
00:14:08,250 --> 00:14:08,529
你
469
00:14:08,529 --> 00:14:10,460
那里有十亿美元规模
470
00:14:10,460 --> 00:14:13,639
我们将观察Anthropic长期估值走向
471
00:14:13,639 --> 00:14:16,700
但有人认为它正朝着千亿美元级别发展
472
00:14:16,700 --> 00:14:17,240
估值
473
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:17,720
没错
474
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:18,080
嗯
475
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:19,080
我们拭目以待
476
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:19,659
嗯
477
00:14:19,659 --> 00:14:20,200
你知道的
478
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,139
即使估值达五百亿美元
479
00:14:23,139 --> 00:14:24,720
长期来看确实惊人
480
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,200
你仍有五亿美元规模
481
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:26,720
没错
482
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,019
本尼表示现在希望自己能投入更多
483
00:14:31,019 --> 00:14:33,220
Salesforce也在进行大规模回购
484
00:14:33,220 --> 00:14:35,720
他们计划斥资五十亿美元回购
485
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,120
这数字令人难以置信
486
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:38,039
你知道的
487
00:14:38,039 --> 00:14:39,220
截至明日的市值
488
00:14:39,220 --> 00:14:41,639
预计应在一百七十亿至一百八十亿美元之间
489
00:14:41,639 --> 00:14:43,759
若投入五十亿美元回购
490
00:14:43,759 --> 00:14:45,099
这非常极端
491
00:14:45,099 --> 00:14:47,318
这是史无前例的回购规模
492
00:14:47,318 --> 00:14:54,759
我认为本尼对公司增长充满信心
493
00:14:54,759 --> 00:14:55,840
以及未来发展前景
494
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:56,320
顺便说一句
495
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:57,679
Agent Forest业务表现惊人
496
00:14:57,679 --> 00:14:59,960
该业务在本季度持续快速增长
497
00:14:59,960 --> 00:15:01,820
这是我们需要持续看到的
498
00:15:01,820 --> 00:15:07,820
没错贝蒂是否真的十年后仍对公司如此有信心
499
00:15:08,330 --> 00:15:09,889
实施五十亿美元回购计划
500
00:15:09,889 --> 00:15:12,559
这完全合乎逻辑你的
501
00:15:12,559 --> 00:15:14,200
如果他真的这么自信
502
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:15,919
他们能保持十年之久
503
00:15:15,919 --> 00:15:17,919
你永远买不到比现在更便宜的股票
504
00:15:17,919 --> 00:15:18,480
就现在而言
505
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,669
这就像千载难逢的机会
506
00:15:20,669 --> 00:15:21,049
你知道的
507
00:15:21,049 --> 00:15:24,470
十年经验积累到这里
508
00:15:24,470 --> 00:15:25,870
如果你有任何不自信
509
00:15:25,870 --> 00:15:27,429
你不会做这样的回购
510
00:15:27,429 --> 00:15:28,679
风险太大了
511
00:15:28,679 --> 00:15:32,320
因为你可能需要这笔资金收购其他公司
512
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:33,629
但如果是这家伙
513
00:15:33,629 --> 00:15:35,190
亚洲力量将变得庞大
514
00:15:35,190 --> 00:15:36,490
我们正在走向
515
00:15:36,490 --> 00:15:36,950
你知道的
516
00:15:36,950 --> 00:15:39,769
每年六十亿美元以上的增长
517
00:15:39,769 --> 00:15:42,179
之后我们将达到一百亿美元
518
00:15:42,179 --> 00:15:43,860
你是说现在就要回购
519
00:15:43,860 --> 00:15:46,139
因为你永远不会再以今年这样的低价买到股票
520
00:15:46,139 --> 00:15:47,000
基本上没错
521
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,299
就损益表而言
522
00:15:48,299 --> 00:15:50,879
我给了他总营收C级评分
523
00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:51,759
同比增长12%
524
00:15:51,759 --> 00:15:52,480
同比来看
525
00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,240
营收成本上涨13%
526
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:55,720
这将是让公司
527
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:56,000
呃
528
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:56,480
你知道的
529
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,419
会让华尔街感到不安
530
00:15:59,419 --> 00:15:59,940
你知道的
531
00:15:59,940 --> 00:16:01,539
当他们看到营收同比增长12%
532
00:16:01,539 --> 00:16:02,779
营收成本上涨13%
533
00:16:02,779 --> 00:16:05,039
尽管营收是更大的项目
534
00:16:05,039 --> 00:16:06,860
公司毛利润增长12%
535
00:16:06,860 --> 00:16:08,320
同比增长至近8%
536
00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:08,960
70亿美元
537
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:09,559
从7
538
00:16:09,559 --> 00:16:10,240
70亿美元
539
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:11,250
去年同期同期
540
00:16:11,250 --> 00:16:12,690
研发费用增长14%
541
00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:14,049
销售与市场费用增长16%
542
00:16:14,049 --> 00:16:15,169
G&A费用增长18%
543
00:16:15,169 --> 00:16:15,690
这些都不是
544
00:16:15,690 --> 00:16:17,029
都不是好事
545
00:16:17,029 --> 00:16:21,610
因为你知道营收在百分比增长上被超越了
546
00:16:21,610 --> 00:16:23,330
重组费用同比下降
547
00:16:23,330 --> 00:16:24,080
同比来看
548
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:25,840
总运营费用增长15%
549
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:26,700
这不是你想要看到的
550
00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:28,259
当毛利润增长12%
551
00:16:28,259 --> 00:16:28,970
对
552
00:16:28,970 --> 00:16:31,590
因此整体运营收入增长至一点八六九亿美元
553
00:16:31,590 --> 00:16:32,669
达到一点八六九亿美元
554
00:16:32,669 --> 00:16:34,230
从一点八二亿美元增长
555
00:16:34,230 --> 00:16:35,450
仅增长3%
556
00:16:35,450 --> 00:16:36,139
同比来看
557
00:16:36,139 --> 00:16:37,779
这就是我在这里给他打了C级的原因
558
00:16:37,779 --> 00:16:40,679
因为这部分损益表表现不佳
559
00:16:40,679 --> 00:16:41,200
没错
560
00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:42,360
费用过高
561
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,320
其中很大一部分可能与Informatica相关
562
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:45,759
呃
563
00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:46,440
那次收购
564
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:47,799
需要记住这一点
565
00:16:47,799 --> 00:16:49,919
他们获得了战略投资收益
566
00:16:49,919 --> 00:16:53,340
之前我们提到的Anthropic交易收益八千一百一十万美元
567
00:16:53,340 --> 00:16:55,679
税前利润增长13.3%
568
00:16:55,679 --> 00:16:56,519
公司整体增长2%
569
00:16:56,519 --> 00:16:59,820
或净利润增长13%至UDPS增长18%
570
00:16:59,820 --> 00:17:04,170
Anthropic的情况帮助改善了他们的净利润
571
00:17:04,170 --> 00:17:05,789
如果只看原始数据
572
00:17:05,789 --> 00:17:06,170
你会说
573
00:17:06,170 --> 00:17:06,410
好吧
574
00:17:06,410 --> 00:17:06,690
收入
575
00:17:06,690 --> 00:17:07,349
增长12%
576
00:17:07,349 --> 00:17:09,279
UDPS增长18%
577
00:17:11,009 --> 00:17:11,569
棒极了
578
00:17:11,569 --> 00:17:11,950
太好了
579
00:17:11,950 --> 00:17:13,250
但深入分析
580
00:17:13,250 --> 00:17:14,210
哦不
581
00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:18,130
本季度费用极高,运营收入仅增长3%
582
00:17:18,130 --> 00:17:19,589
尽管收入增长12%
583
00:17:19,589 --> 00:17:20,380
不太好
584
00:17:20,380 --> 00:17:20,740
所以
585
00:17:23,059 --> 00:17:25,138
我对Salesforce的看法是
586
00:17:25,138 --> 00:17:26,690
我充满信心
587
00:17:26,690 --> 00:17:28,750
Benioff在这里的决策很明智
588
00:17:28,750 --> 00:17:30,329
我需要继续增持这个仓位
589
00:17:30,329 --> 00:17:32,390
当前仓位约19.1万美元
590
00:17:32,390 --> 00:17:35,230
需在三月期间持续增持
591
00:17:35,230 --> 00:17:41,388
需要调整至对Salesforce完全建仓
592
00:17:41,388 --> 00:17:43,888
需在三月底前完成
593
00:17:43,888 --> 00:17:45,068
基本上没错
594
00:17:45,068 --> 00:17:48,509
但这并不意味着之后不再增持
595
00:17:48,509 --> 00:17:51,880
但需尽可能积极增持
596
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,579
我要尽可能多买入股票
597
00:17:53,579 --> 00:17:57,640
同时公司也在积极回购股票
598
00:17:57,799 --> 00:17:58,319
我
599
00:17:58,319 --> 00:17:59,200
我非常有信心
600
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,759
Salesforce未来稳如磐石
601
00:18:01,759 --> 00:18:04,309
清楚他在这里所做的是正确的,所以我将继续添加
602
00:18:04,309 --> 00:18:08,240
这里的情况是水很浑浊,我就像
603
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,579
我觉得里面可能有金子
604
00:18:09,579 --> 00:18:11,640
我觉得里面可能有金子,大家也都这么说
605
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:11,920
啊
606
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:12,460
这里很浑浊
607
00:18:12,460 --> 00:18:14,369
里面可能有食人鱼
608
00:18:14,369 --> 00:18:15,609
里面可能有鳄鱼
609
00:18:15,609 --> 00:18:18,369
我不知道,看起来很吓人,这就是现在的Salesforce
610
00:18:18,369 --> 00:18:19,890
我明白的没错
611
00:18:19,890 --> 00:18:23,569
但我认为里面可能有金子,时间会告诉我们
612
00:18:23,569 --> 00:18:25,230
时间会揭晓答案,这才是有趣的地方
613
00:18:25,230 --> 00:18:25,950
在股票市场
614
00:18:25,950 --> 00:18:28,000
时间总会告诉Snowflake
615
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:29,279
接下来这个
616
00:18:29,279 --> 00:18:33,039
所以Snowflake的收入表在这里是D级
617
00:18:33,039 --> 00:18:34,339
收入12亿美元
618
00:18:34,339 --> 00:18:38,000
80亿美元 vs 去年同期的9.86亿美元
619
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:39,210
去年同期的同一季度
620
00:18:39,210 --> 00:18:39,789
嗯
621
00:18:39,789 --> 00:18:43,000
成本上升至4.26亿美元,从3.33亿美元
622
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:44,960
毛利率表现非常出色
623
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,119
增至8.57亿美元,从6.53亿美元
624
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,460
这很 impressive
625
00:18:48,460 --> 00:18:50,750
他们仍然存在严重的开支问题
626
00:18:50,750 --> 00:18:54,259
运营亏损最终达到3.18亿美元
627
00:18:54,259 --> 00:18:55,519
天啊
628
00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:57,200
他们的开支简直太离谱了
629
00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,469
毛利率8.57亿美元
630
00:19:00,469 --> 00:19:05,690
但依然能找到运营亏损3.18亿美元的方法
631
00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:09,220
这家公司持续存在开支问题
632
00:19:09,220 --> 00:19:10,019
你知道的
633
00:19:10,019 --> 00:19:10,579
我告诉你们
634
00:19:10,579 --> 00:19:11,900
必须收入大于支出
635
00:19:11,900 --> 00:19:12,539
最重要的是什么
636
00:19:12,539 --> 00:19:14,400
成为成功投资者的关键
637
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:15,980
不是资产负债表
638
00:19:15,980 --> 00:19:18,329
不是利润表
639
00:19:18,329 --> 00:19:19,579
不是现金流
640
00:19:19,579 --> 00:19:21,380
不是市盈率
641
00:19:21,380 --> 00:19:22,920
而是收入大于支出
642
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,839
这样你每周或每月都能持续买入
643
00:19:25,839 --> 00:19:27,900
没错,对公司也是如此
644
00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:29,559
当你审视一家公司
645
00:19:29,559 --> 00:19:30,359
比如Salesforce
646
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:31,259
他们带来或让我纠正
647
00:19:31,259 --> 00:19:32,299
比如Snowflake
648
00:19:32,299 --> 00:19:34,250
他们赚取了大量资金
649
00:19:34,250 --> 00:19:35,569
创造了巨额毛利润
650
00:19:35,569 --> 00:19:37,750
最终利润分配
651
00:19:37,750 --> 00:19:38,809
你到达了终点
652
00:19:38,809 --> 00:19:40,250
已经没什么剩下
653
00:19:40,250 --> 00:19:42,240
他们最终遭受了巨大损失
654
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,220
就像兄弟啊
655
00:19:44,220 --> 00:19:44,900
你知道的
656
00:19:44,900 --> 00:19:46,839
这就是为你准备的雪片
657
00:19:46,839 --> 00:19:48,920
这几乎成了雪片的故事
658
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,339
这正是雪片的故事
659
00:19:50,339 --> 00:19:51,599
基本上自从上市以来
660
00:19:51,599 --> 00:19:53,559
这个故事依然存在
661
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,640
你知道我可能会在某个时候对这只股票感兴趣
662
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:57,579
但天啊
663
00:19:57,579 --> 00:19:58,440
我得见见他们
664
00:19:58,440 --> 00:19:58,759
至少
665
00:19:58,759 --> 00:20:00,119
接近盈利状态
666
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:00,920
他们仍然如此
667
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,279
他们还差半英里
668
00:20:02,279 --> 00:20:03,970
就在上面这里
669
00:20:03,970 --> 00:20:04,450
交易台
670
00:20:04,450 --> 00:20:05,450
这份文件被狂抛
671
00:20:05,450 --> 00:20:05,950
人们在疑惑
672
00:20:05,950 --> 00:20:07,430
这是绝佳机会吗
673
00:20:07,430 --> 00:20:09,650
交易部门到底怎么了
674
00:20:09,650 --> 00:20:11,009
嗯
675
00:20:11,690 --> 00:20:15,019
我给他们的评级是减收利润表其实非常出色
676
00:20:15,019 --> 00:20:16,720
公司利润表表现非常优秀
677
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:17,240
呃
678
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,549
收入从741百万增至846百万美元
679
00:20:20,549 --> 00:20:23,750
平台运营从135百万增至163百万
680
00:20:23,750 --> 00:20:25,369
这里唯一的亮点
681
00:20:25,369 --> 00:20:27,589
销售市场从150百万增至173百万
682
00:20:27,589 --> 00:20:28,609
我们保留这个
683
00:20:28,609 --> 00:20:29,109
呃
684
00:20:29,109 --> 00:20:31,309
技术开发从127百万增至130百万
685
00:20:31,309 --> 00:20:32,250
这非常 impressive
686
00:20:32,250 --> 00:20:34,089
考虑到营收大幅增长
687
00:20:34,089 --> 00:20:36,750
GTA公司年营收却下降
688
00:20:36,750 --> 00:20:40,109
尽管营收同比增长超一亿美元
689
00:20:40,109 --> 00:20:41,470
至于G
690
00:20:41,470 --> 00:20:44,900
122百万 vs 去年同期131百万
691
00:20:44,900 --> 00:20:48,480
总运营费用从545百万增至589百万
692
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:49,500
这还不错
693
00:20:49,500 --> 00:20:51,819
你知道这里的情况是收入增长
694
00:20:51,819 --> 00:20:54,309
你知道增长了一亿美元多
695
00:20:54,309 --> 00:20:56,269
收入增长了零点五亿美元
696
00:20:56,269 --> 00:20:58,839
而总运营费用仅上升
697
00:20:58,839 --> 00:21:00,680
这五十多万美元
698
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,559
无运营利润
699
00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:05,579
256百万 vs 去年同期195百万
700
00:21:05,579 --> 00:21:08,079
税前利润70百万 vs 221百万
701
00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:08,440
现在
702
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,180
他们在所得税上被杀了
703
00:21:10,180 --> 00:21:12,059
所得税在这个季度摧毁了他们
704
00:21:12,059 --> 00:21:14,000
他们拿走了八千八百三百万美元
705
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:15,839
所得税收入对比三十
706
00:21:15,839 --> 00:21:17,539
去年同一季度有九百万
707
00:21:17,539 --> 00:21:18,089
好的
708
00:21:18,089 --> 00:21:21,190
因此他们的净利润和每股收益增长
709
00:21:21,190 --> 00:21:22,589
看起来并不亮眼
710
00:21:22,589 --> 00:21:26,789
但这主要是因为所得税今年这个季度严重拖累
711
00:21:26,789 --> 00:21:28,089
但净利润一百八十
712
00:21:28,089 --> 00:21:30,309
六百万对比去年同一季度的十八二
713
00:21:30,309 --> 00:21:32,500
Delups为三十九美分对比三六美分
714
00:21:32,500 --> 00:21:35,900
所以我将忽略所得税问题
715
00:21:35,900 --> 00:21:37,700
所以我给了他一个减分
716
00:21:37,700 --> 00:21:38,539
非常好
717
00:21:38,539 --> 00:21:39,720
非常不错的数字
718
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,440
但可怕的是
719
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,000
看看同比收入增长
720
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:45,519
好的
721
00:21:45,519 --> 00:21:48,319
去年同一季度达到百分之二十二
722
00:21:48,319 --> 00:21:50,240
看看新数据
723
00:21:51,410 --> 00:21:53,190
新数据仅为百分之十四
724
00:21:53,190 --> 00:21:54,069
这很可怕
725
00:21:54,069 --> 00:21:57,329
收入增长少了八个百分点
726
00:21:58,490 --> 00:22:03,329
同时公司净利率同比大幅下降
727
00:22:03,329 --> 00:22:04,210
这也是可怕的
728
00:22:04,210 --> 00:22:05,569
如果不深入分析损益表
729
00:22:05,569 --> 00:22:07,000
并不是所有人都会这样做
730
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,000
已从百分之二十五降至百分之二十二
731
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,019
但再次是因为巨额所得税问题
732
00:22:12,019 --> 00:22:14,059
这才是更可怕的部分
733
00:22:14,059 --> 00:22:14,829
哦糟糕
734
00:22:14,829 --> 00:22:16,150
收入增长从去年此时的两
735
00:22:16,150 --> 00:22:17,269
百分之二变为
736
00:22:17,269 --> 00:22:18,230
降至百分之十四
737
00:22:18,230 --> 00:22:19,970
人们开始担忧
738
00:22:19,970 --> 00:22:21,039
进行外推
739
00:22:21,039 --> 00:22:22,259
预测未来增长
740
00:22:22,259 --> 00:22:23,099
并开始思考
741
00:22:23,099 --> 00:22:23,359
好的
742
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,480
明年此时这个季度会怎样
743
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:27,220
我们会有
744
00:22:27,220 --> 00:22:28,619
百分之九的收入增长
745
00:22:28,619 --> 00:22:30,240
百分之七的收入增长
746
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,700
这让人们非常恐慌
747
00:22:32,700 --> 00:22:33,980
因为他们开始考虑下一年
748
00:22:33,980 --> 00:22:34,279
然后
749
00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:34,500
好的
750
00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:34,940
我们目前处于什么位置
751
00:22:34,940 --> 00:22:35,839
然后是百分之三
752
00:22:35,839 --> 00:22:38,819
公司的一 percent 收入开始下降
753
00:22:38,819 --> 00:22:40,079
我明白了
754
00:22:40,079 --> 00:22:40,500
然而
755
00:22:40,500 --> 00:22:41,660
在积极方面
756
00:22:41,660 --> 00:22:42,759
公司传来好消息
757
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:45,859
客户留存率全年保持在百分之九十五以上
758
00:22:45,859 --> 00:22:46,519
这很好
759
00:22:46,519 --> 00:22:47,219
嗯
760
00:22:47,219 --> 00:22:49,759
连续十二个季度保持不变
761
00:22:49,759 --> 00:22:51,058
公司整体传来好消息
762
00:22:51,058 --> 00:22:52,318
说到这一点
763
00:22:52,318 --> 00:22:53,660
另外
764
00:22:53,660 --> 00:22:55,900
公司疯狂回购股票
765
00:22:55,900 --> 00:22:58,430
公司第四季度用约四百二十
766
00:22:58,430 --> 00:23:02,009
三百万现金回购普通股
767
00:23:02,009 --> 00:23:02,630
二零二五
768
00:23:02,630 --> 00:23:04,509
公司使用约一点
769
00:23:04,509 --> 00:23:10,598
四亿美元现金以平均价格回购股票
770
00:23:10,598 --> 00:23:11,838
哦不
771
00:23:11,838 --> 00:23:13,839
哦不
772
00:23:13,839 --> 00:23:19,079
平均价格五十到六十
773
00:23:19,479 --> 00:23:21,798
今日股价二十美元
774
00:23:21,798 --> 00:23:26,279
如果他们只是等待
775
00:23:26,279 --> 00:23:28,279
如果他们只是等待
776
00:23:28,279 --> 00:23:30,099
他们严重超支了
777
00:23:30,099 --> 00:23:31,500
哦不
778
00:23:31,500 --> 00:23:36,190
公司剩余约一百五十万美元用于回购
779
00:23:36,190 --> 00:23:36,529
我的意思是
780
00:23:36,529 --> 00:23:37,170
好消息是
781
00:23:37,170 --> 00:23:38,049
他们低价买入
782
00:23:38,049 --> 00:23:39,589
对啊不过
783
00:23:39,589 --> 00:23:41,329
但真是令人感慨
784
00:23:41,329 --> 00:23:43,949
他们在五十年代浪费了太多钱
785
00:23:43,949 --> 00:23:46,159
而你本可以在
786
00:23:46,159 --> 00:23:48,179
这笔钱本可以发挥更大作用
787
00:23:48,179 --> 00:23:50,699
但有一只股票八月时曾达九十美元
788
00:23:50,699 --> 00:23:51,898
这是一只惨淡的股票
789
00:23:51,898 --> 00:23:53,250
这引起了我的兴趣
790
00:23:53,250 --> 00:23:54,789
我得多深入调查
791
00:23:54,789 --> 00:23:56,289
我可能会参加电话会议
792
00:23:56,289 --> 00:23:57,869
我得多研究他们的商业模式
793
00:23:57,869 --> 00:24:01,089
这家公司在整个AI浪潮中遭受的冲击有多严重
794
00:24:01,089 --> 00:24:04,970
未来你可能会听到更多关于交易部门的分析
795
00:24:04,970 --> 00:24:08,309
但眼下我们来看C三
796
00:24:08,309 --> 00:24:11,849
哦然后我们得到一个诚实且潜力巨大的小盘股
797
00:24:11,849 --> 00:24:13,130
好的
798
00:24:13,569 --> 00:24:14,269
C三
799
00:24:14,269 --> 00:24:15,410
我不
800
00:24:15,410 --> 00:24:16,230
为何不
801
00:24:16,230 --> 00:24:17,130
为什么不呢
802
00:24:17,130 --> 00:24:22,579
他们的收入从9800万美元骤降至5300万美元
803
00:24:22,660 --> 00:24:27,200
毛利润从5800万美元降至900万美元
804
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,920
我不得不对这些数字反复确认
805
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,380
我简直不敢相信
806
00:24:30,380 --> 00:24:31,380
这数据准确吗
807
00:24:31,380 --> 00:24:31,660
比如
808
00:24:31,660 --> 00:24:32,980
我甚至需要三番五次核对
809
00:24:32,980 --> 00:24:34,079
我得再说一遍
810
00:24:34,079 --> 00:24:37,880
怎么会搞成这样啊C3AI我的天
811
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,299
天啊
812
00:24:39,299 --> 00:24:43,140
公司最新季度净亏损1.33亿美元
813
00:24:43,140 --> 00:24:45,769
同比去年同期亏损8000万美元
814
00:24:45,769 --> 00:24:49,230
摊薄亏损0.94美元 vs 0.62美元
815
00:24:49,230 --> 00:24:49,789
各位
816
00:24:49,789 --> 00:24:50,569
这简直糟糕透了
817
00:24:51,569 --> 00:24:55,339
到了C3AI的地步
818
00:24:55,339 --> 00:24:56,259
开始担忧
819
00:24:56,259 --> 00:24:57,839
这家公司会不会破产
820
00:24:57,839 --> 00:24:58,259
真的
821
00:24:58,259 --> 00:25:00,299
这才是真正令人担忧的
822
00:25:01,619 --> 00:25:03,460
一团糟
823
00:25:04,740 --> 00:25:05,900
我明白你的意思
824
00:25:05,900 --> 00:25:07,460
我不知道该怎么解决
825
00:25:09,099 --> 00:25:10,559
可能没人需要他们的产品
826
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:11,700
但他们却像醉鬼一样花钱
827
00:25:11,700 --> 00:25:18,529
这可能是整个股市最烂的公司
828
00:25:18,529 --> 00:25:19,819
我是认真的
829
00:25:19,819 --> 00:25:20,920
这太可怕了
830
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:21,819
女士们先生们
831
00:25:21,819 --> 00:25:22,779
如果你们喜欢
832
00:25:22,779 --> 00:25:24,000
这就是一个很好的例子
833
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:29,279
堪称历史上最优秀的财报之一
834
00:25:29,279 --> 00:25:31,960
我在这个视频里刚展示过英伟达的报告
835
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:32,400
没错
836
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,539
现在我要展示
837
00:25:33,539 --> 00:25:38,200
史上最糟糕的财报之一
838
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:39,220
这太糟糕了
839
00:25:39,220 --> 00:25:39,940
女士们先生们
840
00:25:41,019 --> 00:25:42,299
请仔细想想
841
00:25:42,299 --> 00:25:48,609
他们净利润亏损超过营收目标的两倍
842
00:25:49,930 --> 00:25:51,849
超过两倍之多
843
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:56,200
这怎么可能
844
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,480
天啊
845
00:25:58,480 --> 00:25:59,240
女士们先生们
846
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:03,670
这就是正确与错误之间的巨大差距
847
00:26:03,670 --> 00:26:04,849
作为个股投资者
848
00:26:04,849 --> 00:26:08,420
这也是为何要深入研究这些公司
849
00:26:08,420 --> 00:26:12,059
这家公司曾与Palantir被放在一起讨论
850
00:26:12,059 --> 00:26:12,799
多年前
851
00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:14,980
他们以为自己是同类型的公司
852
00:26:14,980 --> 00:26:19,670
没错,看看Palantir的回报率高达1700%
853
00:26:19,670 --> 00:26:24,289
过去一年我在Palantir股票上赚取了巨额利润
854
00:26:24,289 --> 00:26:24,690
没错
855
00:26:24,690 --> 00:26:25,609
利润丰厚到惊人
856
00:26:25,609 --> 00:26:27,059
这太不可思议了
857
00:26:27,059 --> 00:26:27,480
谢谢
858
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,210
Palantir就该这样
859
00:26:29,529 --> 00:26:30,190
谢天谢地
860
00:26:30,190 --> 00:26:32,410
我选择了Palantir和C3.ai
861
00:26:32,410 --> 00:26:34,130
因为如果我选择C3.ai
862
00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:37,329
现在可能面临难以置信的亏损
863
00:26:37,329 --> 00:26:40,490
在公司可能无法维持运营的情况下
864
00:26:40,490 --> 00:26:41,450
几年后
865
00:26:41,450 --> 00:26:42,490
按目前的发展速度
866
00:26:42,490 --> 00:26:45,359
我对Palantir也不确定
867
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:46,079
我心想
868
00:26:46,079 --> 00:26:46,359
好吧
869
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:47,400
估值超高
870
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,279
但必须兑现巨额利润
871
00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:53,390
仍持有部分股份,公司前景极佳
872
00:26:53,390 --> 00:26:54,369
兄弟
873
00:26:54,369 --> 00:26:57,730
这些公司必须深入研究
874
00:26:57,730 --> 00:27:00,069
因为哇,规模庞大
875
00:27:00,069 --> 00:27:00,670
你知道的
876
00:27:00,670 --> 00:27:02,289
Palantir曾是改变人生的股票
877
00:27:02,289 --> 00:27:07,640
过去三四年持有该股的人生活翻天
878
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:08,779
如果你大幅投资
879
00:27:08,779 --> 00:27:10,599
这也曾是改变人生的股票
880
00:27:10,599 --> 00:27:11,779
但说到负面
881
00:27:11,779 --> 00:27:12,299
没错
882
00:27:12,299 --> 00:27:13,839
如果你投入
883
00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:17,000
你知道把净资产的20%投入C3.ai
884
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,119
三四年 ago
885
00:27:20,019 --> 00:27:21,599
现在收益寥寥
886
00:27:21,599 --> 00:27:24,039
把20%净资产投入Palantir
887
00:27:24,039 --> 00:27:25,200
三四年 ago
888
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,319
很可能成为百万富翁或千万富翁
889
00:27:27,319 --> 00:27:28,720
现在差距如此之大
890
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,779
没错,这两家公司
891
00:27:30,779 --> 00:27:31,339
我明白
892
00:27:31,339 --> 00:27:32,599
大家在市场待久了
893
00:27:32,599 --> 00:27:33,619
像你们这些老手
894
00:27:33,619 --> 00:27:36,130
不要只在市场待一两年
895
00:27:36,130 --> 00:27:37,650
如果你长期在市场
896
00:27:37,650 --> 00:27:38,970
我知道像
897
00:27:38,970 --> 00:27:39,789
在评论区告诉我
898
00:27:39,789 --> 00:27:42,230
如果你在2021年还在场
899
00:27:42,230 --> 00:27:43,069
2022年
900
00:27:43,069 --> 00:27:44,309
2023年
901
00:27:44,309 --> 00:27:46,930
你们还记得帕兰蒂尔和C三号吗
902
00:27:46,930 --> 00:27:47,869
我曾被分到同一个部门
903
00:27:47,869 --> 00:27:50,230
他们认为这些公司非常相似
904
00:27:50,230 --> 00:27:53,470
他们觉得要么一起成功要么一起失败
905
00:27:53,470 --> 00:27:56,779
还记得这和现实相差多远吗
906
00:27:56,779 --> 00:27:57,259
对吧
907
00:27:57,259 --> 00:27:57,660
好的
908
00:27:57,660 --> 00:27:58,480
接下来这个案例
909
00:27:58,480 --> 00:27:59,500
两本书查克
910
00:27:59,500 --> 00:27:59,799
诚实公司
911
00:27:59,799 --> 00:28:02,059
然后我们得到一个隐藏的小杯子
912
00:28:02,059 --> 00:28:04,829
说到诚实公司
913
00:28:04,829 --> 00:28:06,490
如果你关注过诚实公司的故事
914
00:28:06,490 --> 00:28:09,529
我们都清楚他们将退出多个产品类别
915
00:28:09,529 --> 00:28:10,680
这些
916
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,779
被称为低效产品类别
917
00:28:12,779 --> 00:28:14,900
能增加公司收入
918
00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:16,700
但损害利润率
919
00:28:16,700 --> 00:28:18,059
影响盈利能力
920
00:28:18,059 --> 00:28:20,059
说实话
921
00:28:20,059 --> 00:28:21,519
分散公司注意力
922
00:28:21,519 --> 00:28:23,720
卡洛拉上季度宣布了这一计划
923
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,660
投资者对此很不满
924
00:28:25,660 --> 00:28:26,240
因为他们说
925
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:26,960
天啊
926
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:27,420
这意味着
927
00:28:27,420 --> 00:28:27,880
你知道的
928
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:29,799
明年财报都会受影响
929
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:31,569
指2026年财报
930
00:28:31,569 --> 00:28:32,609
数据全被打乱
931
00:28:32,609 --> 00:28:34,859
因为他们退出这些业务线
932
00:28:34,859 --> 00:28:37,359
短期内会扰乱收入
933
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:38,619
让收入表现变差
934
00:28:38,619 --> 00:28:39,579
利润率也会下滑
935
00:28:39,579 --> 00:28:42,190
作为长期投资者
936
00:28:42,190 --> 00:28:43,309
我希望公司
937
00:28:43,309 --> 00:28:46,589
你们要为股东做出最佳长期决策
938
00:28:46,589 --> 00:28:48,470
自从卡洛拉加入公司
939
00:28:48,470 --> 00:28:50,670
她让公司从濒临破产
940
00:28:50,670 --> 00:28:51,910
他们正走向破产边缘
941
00:28:51,910 --> 00:28:53,329
我完全坦白说
942
00:28:53,329 --> 00:28:56,460
现在公司状况很好
943
00:28:56,460 --> 00:28:59,359
资产负债表现金充足
944
00:28:59,359 --> 00:29:00,119
她正在
945
00:29:00,119 --> 00:29:03,029
大幅提升利润率
946
00:29:03,029 --> 00:29:05,930
做出裁员等艰难决定
947
00:29:05,930 --> 00:29:08,230
退出某些业务线
948
00:29:08,230 --> 00:29:09,069
这些举措
949
00:29:09,069 --> 00:29:09,390
确实
950
00:29:09,390 --> 00:29:10,529
确保收入数据更亮眼
951
00:29:10,529 --> 00:29:13,109
但最终对公司整体造成伤害
952
00:29:13,109 --> 00:29:14,609
我认为这是个明智的决定
953
00:29:14,609 --> 00:29:15,950
因此我完全支持
954
00:29:15,950 --> 00:29:16,349
她
955
00:29:16,349 --> 00:29:18,269
完全支持当前局势
956
00:29:18,269 --> 00:29:18,509
没错
957
00:29:18,509 --> 00:29:21,369
营收同比下降约12%
958
00:29:21,369 --> 00:29:23,970
因为他们退出了这些业务线
959
00:29:23,970 --> 00:29:24,970
有机营收
960
00:29:24,970 --> 00:29:28,009
但公司整体同比有所增长
961
00:29:28,009 --> 00:29:28,430
好的
962
00:29:28,430 --> 00:29:30,710
所以有机营收基本指业务
963
00:29:30,710 --> 00:29:33,130
他们正保持正确方向
964
00:29:33,130 --> 00:29:38,059
公司渠道消费同比增长3-4%
965
00:29:38,059 --> 00:29:39,859
而同期同类品类增长2.5%
966
00:29:39,859 --> 00:29:41,180
他们增速超越品类
967
00:29:41,180 --> 00:29:41,829
这很好
968
00:29:41,829 --> 00:29:43,930
毛利率达到15.7%
969
00:29:43,930 --> 00:29:46,190
相比去年同期的38.8%
970
00:29:46,190 --> 00:29:48,740
D Klein 主要由
971
00:29:48,740 --> 00:29:49,180
呃
972
00:29:49,180 --> 00:29:50,400
离散库存
973
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:56,269
服装及固定资产减值与战略退出相关
974
00:29:56,269 --> 00:29:56,710
你知道的
975
00:29:56,710 --> 00:29:56,950
诚实说
976
00:29:56,950 --> 00:29:57,369
显然
977
00:29:57,369 --> 00:29:57,829
呃
978
00:29:57,829 --> 00:29:58,549
品类已退出
979
00:29:58,549 --> 00:29:58,630
所以
980
00:29:58,630 --> 00:30:00,670
这是一次性情况
981
00:30:00,670 --> 00:30:02,829
关于利润率受损
982
00:30:02,829 --> 00:30:03,828
目前
983
00:30:03,828 --> 00:30:06,869
公司持有巨额现金
984
00:30:06,869 --> 00:30:07,369
现在
985
00:30:07,369 --> 00:30:13,509
该公司现金及等价物近9000万美元
986
00:30:13,710 --> 00:30:15,309
无任何债务
987
00:30:16,309 --> 00:30:16,569
听着
988
00:30:16,569 --> 00:30:17,150
女士们先生们
989
00:30:18,150 --> 00:30:18,349
诚实说
990
00:30:18,349 --> 00:30:21,279
市值约2亿美元
991
00:30:21,279 --> 00:30:22,599
约在2亿美元区间
992
00:30:22,599 --> 00:30:23,000
我不知道
993
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,319
我不太记得具体数值
994
00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:26,079
可能在2.25亿至2.5亿
995
00:30:26,079 --> 00:30:26,579
75
996
00:30:26,579 --> 00:30:27,880
在2亿美元区间
997
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:28,710
好的
998
00:30:28,710 --> 00:30:31,029
近9000万美元现金
999
00:30:31,029 --> 00:30:31,730
闲置中
1000
00:30:31,730 --> 00:30:33,869
这数额令人震惊
1001
00:30:34,039 --> 00:30:35,900
我的意思是将这一点作为参考
1002
00:30:35,900 --> 00:30:38,000
这就像英伟达公司
1003
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,480
市值达到五万亿美元
1004
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,740
资产负债表上还有两万亿美元现金
1005
00:30:44,740 --> 00:30:46,319
让我简单说说他们的情况
1006
00:30:46,319 --> 00:30:48,599
资产负债表上有两万亿美元现金
1007
00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:49,880
这就是我们讨论的重点
1008
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:50,200
以诚信为本
1009
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,109
这简直太疯狂了
1010
00:30:52,109 --> 00:30:53,029
所以他们宣布
1011
00:30:53,029 --> 00:30:54,990
他们打算进行大规模股票回购
1012
00:30:54,990 --> 00:30:57,230
我对此表示赞赏没错
1013
00:30:57,230 --> 00:30:58,670
从两到六的展望
1014
00:30:58,670 --> 00:31:00,029
这实际上是个好前景
1015
00:31:00,029 --> 00:31:00,890
非常非常棒
1016
00:31:00,890 --> 00:31:03,119
这让我对诚信充满乐观
1017
00:31:03,119 --> 00:31:04,240
如之前披露的
1018
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,500
公司长期财务算法包括4%至6%的营收增长
1019
00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:09,390
没错
1020
00:31:09,390 --> 00:31:11,049
他们在谈论营收
1021
00:31:11,049 --> 00:31:14,069
从三百零六百万到三百十二万
1022
00:31:14,069 --> 00:31:14,710
没错
1023
00:31:14,710 --> 00:31:17,549
有机营收增长4%至6%
1024
00:31:17,549 --> 00:31:19,369
这就是他们专注的业务
1025
00:31:19,369 --> 00:31:20,670
不是他们退出的业务
1026
00:31:20,670 --> 00:31:22,230
因为如果要退出大量业务
1027
00:31:22,230 --> 00:31:24,670
营收同比肯定会下降
1028
00:31:24,670 --> 00:31:27,069
但业务聚焦在
1029
00:31:27,069 --> 00:31:29,990
他们不会退出的4%至6%营收增长
1030
00:31:30,150 --> 00:31:32,190
看看调整后的毛利率
1031
00:31:32,190 --> 00:31:33,809
提到低40%区间
1032
00:31:33,809 --> 00:31:37,279
我们将调整后的毛利率降至低40%区间
1033
00:31:38,619 --> 00:31:40,519
调整欧盟20至20
1034
00:31:40,519 --> 00:31:41,500
三百万美元范围
1035
00:31:41,500 --> 00:31:42,119
再次强调
1036
00:31:42,119 --> 00:31:44,660
Honest市值在两亿美元左右
1037
00:31:44,660 --> 00:31:45,160
现在
1038
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:46,579
这些数字太疯狂了
1039
00:31:46,579 --> 00:31:47,470
没错
1040
00:31:47,470 --> 00:31:49,980
哦是的
1041
00:31:49,980 --> 00:31:51,579
就财务报表而言
1042
00:31:51,579 --> 00:31:52,720
我不得不给他们打F级
1043
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,819
但主要涉及业务退出和一次性项目
1044
00:31:55,819 --> 00:31:58,659
并短期损害盈利能力和利润率
1045
00:31:58,659 --> 00:32:01,969
但很多是非现金支出
1046
00:32:01,969 --> 00:32:04,729
没错就是这样
1047
00:32:04,729 --> 00:32:07,749
短期内财务报表会混乱几个季度
1048
00:32:07,749 --> 00:32:10,278
但若着眼长期
1049
00:32:10,278 --> 00:32:11,078
计算数据
1050
00:32:11,078 --> 00:32:12,979
这对公司来说是最佳选择
1051
00:32:12,979 --> 00:32:13,598
对
1052
00:32:13,598 --> 00:32:14,699
所以事情是这样
1053
00:32:14,699 --> 00:32:15,900
我是Honest的买家
1054
00:32:15,900 --> 00:32:18,819
今晚我要收听千禧X股票公司的电话会议
1055
00:32:18,819 --> 00:32:21,420
我们确实有千禧X实时功能
1056
00:32:21,420 --> 00:32:22,799
现在要实时收听电话会议
1057
00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:24,319
我还没机会听过
1058
00:32:24,319 --> 00:32:25,339
今晚我要去听
1059
00:32:25,339 --> 00:32:26,519
只要一切正常
1060
00:32:26,519 --> 00:32:28,079
我是Honest的买家
1061
00:32:28,079 --> 00:32:28,670
好的
1062
00:32:28,670 --> 00:32:29,950
我可能会大量买入
1063
00:32:29,950 --> 00:32:30,210
其实
1064
00:32:30,210 --> 00:32:31,710
我对公司更有信心了
1065
00:32:31,710 --> 00:32:33,329
如果电话会议不错
1066
00:32:33,329 --> 00:32:34,470
我开始买入
1067
00:32:34,470 --> 00:32:35,490
我开始买入
1068
00:32:35,490 --> 00:32:36,609
我们将拥有整个公司
1069
00:32:36,609 --> 00:32:37,230
Honest对我来说
1070
00:32:37,230 --> 00:32:37,589
好的
1071
00:32:37,589 --> 00:32:38,049
呃
1072
00:32:38,049 --> 00:32:39,150
真是隐藏的优质股票
1073
00:32:39,150 --> 00:32:39,970
这是一只强势股票
1074
00:32:39,970 --> 00:32:40,769
让我展示给你看
1075
00:32:40,769 --> 00:32:41,890
它是什么
1076
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:43,720
就是这家公司
1077
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:48,480
这是我公开账户中涨幅第五高的股票
1078
00:32:49,559 --> 00:32:50,380
第五名
1079
00:32:50,380 --> 00:32:51,940
这可能会让人震惊
1080
00:32:51,940 --> 00:32:54,180
因为它超越了亚马逊等公司
1081
00:32:54,180 --> 00:32:55,779
我的收益达到50%
1082
00:32:55,779 --> 00:32:58,400
它超越了芝士蛋糕坊,我的收益61%
1083
00:32:58,400 --> 00:32:59,700
它超越了像D·劳德这样的公司
1084
00:32:59,700 --> 00:33:00,740
我的收益62%
1085
00:33:00,740 --> 00:33:03,259
甚至超越了AMD的88%
1086
00:33:03,259 --> 00:33:04,539
超越了谷歌麦多加
1087
00:33:04,539 --> 00:33:05,880
我的收益约100%
1088
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,559
甚至超越了 Celsius
1089
00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:09,359
我的收益约107%
1090
00:33:09,359 --> 00:33:11,000
这是我涨幅第五高的股票
1091
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:11,640
天啊
1092
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:12,759
我有很多强势股
1093
00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:13,819
它是Revolt
1094
00:33:13,819 --> 00:33:17,460
RV LV股票上涨18%收益
1095
00:33:18,539 --> 00:33:20,769
RV LV昨日发布财报
1096
00:33:20,769 --> 00:33:24,970
他们公布了优秀的财务报表,净销售额
1097
00:33:24,970 --> 00:33:27,549
从3到93增长至3.24亿
1098
00:33:27,549 --> 00:33:28,109
这是E类
1099
00:33:28,109 --> 00:33:28,690
商贸公司
1100
00:33:28,690 --> 00:33:29,950
销售服装,规模很大
1101
00:33:29,950 --> 00:33:30,789
以千禧一代为例
1102
00:33:30,789 --> 00:33:32,450
但看起来他们甚至会更大
1103
00:33:32,450 --> 00:33:33,769
针对Z世代女性群体
1104
00:33:33,769 --> 00:33:34,509
好的
1105
00:33:34,509 --> 00:33:35,349
销售成本
1106
00:33:35,349 --> 00:33:37,470
1.51亿美元对比1.39亿美元
1107
00:33:37,470 --> 00:33:39,369
毛利润增至17万美元
1108
00:33:39,369 --> 00:33:40,049
17万美元
1109
00:33:40,049 --> 00:33:41,470
300万美元对比150万美元
1110
00:33:41,470 --> 00:33:43,039
同比去年同一季度增长4倍
1111
00:33:43,039 --> 00:33:45,259
他们保持履约、销售、分销
1112
00:33:45,259 --> 00:33:45,819
市场营销
1113
00:33:45,819 --> 00:33:47,679
DNA所有指标正常
1114
00:33:47,679 --> 00:33:50,919
公司运营收入大幅增长
1115
00:33:50,919 --> 00:33:51,598
同比去年
1116
00:33:51,598 --> 00:33:53,318
他们实现了2000万美元
1117
00:33:53,318 --> 00:33:55,119
本季度运营收入
1118
00:33:55,119 --> 00:33:57,519
对比去年同期1100万美元
1119
00:33:57,519 --> 00:34:00,720
净利润从1100万美元增至1800万美元
1120
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:01,980
摊薄每股收益达2.6美分
1121
00:34:01,980 --> 00:34:05,549
从17美分暴跌至2.6美分
1122
00:34:05,549 --> 00:34:07,029
我还没来得及听财报电话会
1123
00:34:07,029 --> 00:34:07,250
电话会议
1124
00:34:07,250 --> 00:34:11,989
有听众今晚在实况电话后和布莱尔在私股群发帖
1125
00:34:11,989 --> 00:34:13,219
在Discord聊天室
1126
00:34:13,219 --> 00:34:13,739
他说
1127
00:34:13,739 --> 00:34:13,980
呃
1128
00:34:13,980 --> 00:34:15,699
2026年初势头强劲
1129
00:34:15,699 --> 00:34:19,980
股价前七周上涨16%
1130
00:34:21,269 --> 00:34:25,909
零售服装行业表现亮眼
1131
00:34:25,909 --> 00:34:27,760
16%增长
1132
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,000
即使上季度也仅低个位数
1133
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,000
两位数增长
1134
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,750
简直惊人
1135
00:34:34,750 --> 00:34:35,849
所以Revolve
1136
00:34:35,849 --> 00:34:37,590
没人谈论它
1137
00:34:37,590 --> 00:34:39,269
我简直
1138
00:34:39,269 --> 00:34:42,528
全世界好像没人讨论这只股票
1139
00:34:42,528 --> 00:34:44,809
在Discord聊天室很有趣
1140
00:34:44,809 --> 00:34:47,289
我们私股群有三千多成员
1141
00:34:47,289 --> 00:34:47,728
呃
1142
00:34:47,728 --> 00:34:48,528
私股群
1143
00:34:48,528 --> 00:34:49,409
Discord聊天室
1144
00:34:49,409 --> 00:34:53,869
我认为Revolve聊天室只有两人发言
1145
00:34:53,869 --> 00:34:55,929
因为我们有不同股票的专属频道
1146
00:34:55,929 --> 00:34:59,429
像AMD和Palantir这些股票的频道总是很活跃
1147
00:34:59,429 --> 00:35:00,489
对吧
1148
00:35:00,489 --> 00:35:02,809
至于Revolve聊天室
1149
00:35:02,809 --> 00:35:03,929
我想只有布莱尔和我
1150
00:35:03,929 --> 00:35:04,889
在里面发帖
1151
00:35:04,889 --> 00:35:05,809
就像无人能及
1152
00:35:05,809 --> 00:35:08,170
因为没人关注股票也没人注意
1153
00:35:08,170 --> 00:35:09,619
我就像兄弟
1154
00:35:09,619 --> 00:35:11,460
我觉得这是另一家公司
1155
00:35:11,460 --> 00:35:12,780
人们应该关注
1156
00:35:12,780 --> 00:35:13,789
我明白了
1157
00:35:13,789 --> 00:35:15,869
股市里很多人喜欢
1158
00:35:15,869 --> 00:35:17,190
大概九成是男性
1159
00:35:17,190 --> 00:35:18,789
我的观众可能九成是男性
1160
00:35:18,789 --> 00:35:20,358
只有约十分之一是女性
1161
00:35:20,358 --> 00:35:22,159
我觉得可能有十二%是女性
1162
00:35:22,159 --> 00:35:23,599
向在场的女性朋友们致敬
1163
00:35:23,599 --> 00:35:23,898
你好
1164
00:35:23,898 --> 00:35:24,378
好的
1165
00:35:24,378 --> 00:35:26,789
但说到revolve
1166
00:35:26,789 --> 00:35:27,630
很多人就像
1167
00:35:27,630 --> 00:35:27,829
哦
1168
00:35:27,829 --> 00:35:28,750
我不太明白
1169
00:35:28,750 --> 00:35:30,449
他们卖连衣裙和奢侈品
1170
00:35:30,449 --> 00:35:32,420
还有手袋和包包
1171
00:35:32,420 --> 00:35:34,139
然后开始涉足美容护理
1172
00:35:34,139 --> 00:35:35,429
我不知道
1173
00:35:35,429 --> 00:35:36,329
我真不知道兄弟
1174
00:35:36,329 --> 00:35:38,369
我觉得你可能需要研究一下这个
1175
00:35:38,369 --> 00:35:40,510
你可能得做点研究和revolve
1176
00:35:40,510 --> 00:35:41,690
关于这点我就说这么多
1177
00:35:41,690 --> 00:35:43,210
因为他们确实
1178
00:35:43,210 --> 00:35:44,329
但但回来
1179
00:35:44,329 --> 00:35:45,110
女士们先生们
1180
00:35:45,110 --> 00:35:46,289
我们有很多财报动态
1181
00:35:46,289 --> 00:35:47,650
我们有很多疯狂的事情
1182
00:35:47,650 --> 00:35:49,510
保持长期专注
1183
00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:52,590
确保公司发展方向符合预期
1184
00:35:52,590 --> 00:35:54,159
长期观察他们
1185
00:35:54,159 --> 00:35:57,519
不要只关注市场新手的短期股价
1186
00:35:57,519 --> 00:35:59,519
他们只关注短期股价
1187
00:35:59,519 --> 00:36:01,949
长期运作
1188
00:36:01,949 --> 00:36:02,989
有经验的人
1189
00:36:02,989 --> 00:36:04,329
像我这样的老手
1190
00:36:04,329 --> 00:36:04,989
十七年了
1191
00:36:04,989 --> 00:36:07,679
我们关注企业实际状况
1192
00:36:07,679 --> 00:36:08,659
基本面
1193
00:36:08,659 --> 00:36:09,420
财务数据
1194
00:36:09,420 --> 00:36:10,940
财报会议这些内容
1195
00:36:10,940 --> 00:36:12,219
你需要专注这些
1196
00:36:12,219 --> 00:36:15,340
如果你想提升投资水平到更高层次
1197
00:36:15,340 --> 00:36:16,489
现在
1198
00:36:16,889 --> 00:36:18,190
加入我的私股群组
1199
00:36:18,190 --> 00:36:19,050
申请加入
1200
00:36:19,050 --> 00:36:20,130
在下方评论区点击
1201
00:36:20,130 --> 00:36:21,050
点击那个过滤表单
1202
00:36:21,050 --> 00:36:22,349
我们看看能否在那里获得访问权限
1203
00:36:22,349 --> 00:36:23,789
我所有的课程大纲
1204
00:36:23,789 --> 00:36:24,690
私人Discord
1205
00:36:24,690 --> 00:36:25,199
聊天
1206
00:36:25,199 --> 00:36:25,880
独家内容
1207
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:26,539
每周视频
1208
00:36:26,539 --> 00:36:27,579
所有这些优质内容
1209
00:36:27,579 --> 00:36:29,260
满满的爱,祝你度过美好一天