【NaNa说美股】20260219又要押底裤了🩲！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天12月19号周四

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受到沃尔玛业绩涨望频频

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以及每一局势升级的影响

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美股四大股指呢今天集体低开

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日内走势反复拉扯沃尔玛指引不加脱离的指数

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但是因为达等AI相关股的活跃呢

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抵消了部分跌幅

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最终指数嗯呈现拉锯式窄幅震荡

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最后都小幅收跌

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能源工业和公用事业板块表现强势

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而科技板块呢普遍疲软

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原油价格今天飙升到约六个月高位

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美一紧张局势骤然升温

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市场对美国可能即将袭击伊朗的担忧加剧

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据媒体报道

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美军正在大规模集结中东

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在约旦

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沙特巴林

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阿联酋等多国部署了战机

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预警机和无人机等力量

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还在红海

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波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡附近

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部署了多艘驱逐舰和滨海战斗舰

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川普今天对媒体表示

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美伊双方正在进行良好的谈判

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他给伊朗十天的时间达成协议

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如果谈不拢就要掀桌子

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甚至有消息称

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美军已做好

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最早本周末对伊朗发动军事打击的准备

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以色列以为任何情况做好准备

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如果伊朗向以色列发射导弹

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要和美国一起揍他

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伊朗政府发言人呢则表示

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伊朗总统称不会屈服于美国胁迫

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不过奇怪的是

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黄金今天并没有显著大涨哈

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不知道是反应滞后呢

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还是市场认为伊朗大概率会妥协

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相比起来

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中东局势对美股市场的影响

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还不如沃尔玛的财报影响大

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沃尔玛今天再度交出了一份亮眼的季度财报

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公司第四季度营收1907亿美元

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同比增长了6%

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净利润42.4亿美元

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调整后每股收益74美分

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都好于预期

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门店可比销售额增长了4.6%

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全球电商业务增长24%

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电商的渗透率持续提升

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线上履约与广告业务的利润贡献也在改善

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但是呢公司给出的前瞻指引就略显保守

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预计今年第一季度

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每股收益在63~65美分之间

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只要低于市场预期的68美分

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预计今年全年销售额7064亿美元

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而市场预期为7126亿美元

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全年每股收益指引2.64美元

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基本符合预期

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此外呢

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公司还宣布了新一轮

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300亿美元的股票回购计划

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在当前体量下哈

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依然嗯保持这个积极的回购

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体现出对现金流和资产负债表的信心

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股价今天季后呢小幅波动

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自上一个季度财报发布以来

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沃尔玛的股价已经累涨超过25%

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并且成为美股首家

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市值突破1万亿美元的非科技企业

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作为美国消费支出的重要风向标

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沃尔玛这份财报释放出几个关键信号

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一是必选消费呢依然稳健

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食品与日用品需求具有繁育属性

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二是中高收入群体嗯持续向高性价比渠道转移

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消费降级趋势尚未完全结束

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三呢是电商与会员生态增强了客户粘性

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提高了整体利润结构的质量

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总体来看

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这份财报并没有显示美国消费明显转弱

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但是呢管理层给出的谨慎指引

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在高利率与通胀回落节奏不明朗的背景之下

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美国消费呈现出呃任性仍在

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但是信心并没有全面回升的这个特征

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现在沃尔玛的市盈率已经比英伟达

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微软MEA那几个巨头还高

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很多人觉得不正常是吧

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其实机构们也不傻呀

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之所以给沃尔玛这么高的估值

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因为人家现在才是真正的现金来哟

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而且呢这个公司同时具有嗯成长性和防御属性

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基本面非常的强劲呃

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可是现在烧钱搞AI

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把自有现金流弄得萎缩

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回购力度呢大幅削弱

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那市场当然也要这个根据现金流来重新定价

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那几个科技巨头的估值了

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等未来市场环境稳定下来

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不再那么动荡了

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AI商业化也落地了呃

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这些资金才会从沃尔玛这里流出

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重新去追逐那些风险更高的资产

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标普500指数

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今天日K呢收出一根阳线

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市之星嗯

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仍然被压制在50日与月均线下方

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我们可以看到哈市场走势犹豫不决

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多空非常的焦灼

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最终收出的这根十字星

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反映了市场处于极度矛盾的平衡状态

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明天周五有PC1报告出炉

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如果数据偏冷

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那配合前几天同样偏冷的CPI数据

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将会极大缓解目前的紧缩焦虑

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指数呢可能借势反弹

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再次向上发起冲击

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但若是PC数据超预期哈火热

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那将会强化美联储会议纪要的偏因观点

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这会给市场带来更大的下行压力

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嗯指数可能会二次下探

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并且真正测试6800点

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甚至6720点的支撑

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明天到期的s spy期权列

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现是在680行权价附近呢

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堆积了大量的put未平仓合约

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这意味着680是明天的最后防线

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一旦PC数据利空导致跌破680的话

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那么做市商位的对冲风险

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将会不得不反向卖出更多现货

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届时就可能会引发加速的下跌

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与此同时

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明天到期的put合约未平仓量是call的三倍以上

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这么高的比例呢通常意味着空头仓位的拥挤

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所以要是明天PC数据利好呢

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那这些空头合约的集体平仓

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无论如何

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期权定价都预示明天PC1公布之后

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s spy的日内剧烈波动

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波动的幅度呢大约在1.39%呃左右哈

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对应s spy

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就是在674~694之间的

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这个波动的空间

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根据华尔街日报报道

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美联储理事川普马仔米兰都转变了口风

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称他现在认为利率路径将不再那么宽松

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就是不再认为美联储

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今年应该像之前所预期的那样大幅降息

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因为就业形势好于原来的预期

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他这一番表态本质上属于记转音

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就和昨天会议纪要里说的

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以后要做双向表述一样

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是在对市场过度宽松预期的修正呃

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这么看来

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美联储内部已经出现了这个一致的鹰派

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清显了哈

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可能是美联储觉得当下市场的金融条件

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过度宽松

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所以呢就用偏阴的这个言论来压一压风险偏好

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避免资产价格过热

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与此同时

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多数经济学家预测

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最早可能在今年3月或者4月

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美联储偏阴呃

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这个组合

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对于金融市场来说呢

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当然是短期偏利空了

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尤其是高估值AI板块哈

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那估值压缩风险就骤然上升了呃

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所以呢生产需要警惕三件事

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一个是日元快速升值

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二呢是美债收益率快速上行

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30VIX同步抬头

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如果同时出现这三种迹象啊

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那就是风险资产的压力测试环境了哈

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就要大跌了

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但是目前美债收益率变化并不大

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10年期美债收益率仍然在4%附近徘徊

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日元呢

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因为高斯早苗的财政扩张计划也持续疲软

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所以三个警报中两个都没有亮起红灯

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只有维克斯来到20附近

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说明市场呢呃处于戒备状态

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还没有恐慌哈

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只是对短期风险增加了保护

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若是VIX快速跌破18

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那才是风险偏好恢复的信号

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如果维克斯骤然上升的话哈

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那就这个危险了

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个股方面

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全球最大农用机械制造商

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迪尔股份公布强劲财报

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公司今天大涨

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创去年4月以来最大单日涨幅

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公司QE营收同比增长13%

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净利润6.56亿美元

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同比下降25%

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每股收益2.42美元

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虽然低于上年同期的3.19美元

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但是好于市场预期的2.05美元

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此外呢

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公司还上调了全年收入指引

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从40亿到47.5亿美元

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提高至45亿到50亿美元

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公司CEO称

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2026年是当前周期的底部

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它预计农业经济将会迎来期待已久的复苏

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建筑设备和小型农业设备领域的需求持续回暖

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这番话就极大提升了投资者信心

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比起这些价值股

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最近风光无限

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一位公司董事

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近期以每股大约397美元的价格

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购入了5000股微软股票

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花费了约198万美元

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内部人士用自己的兜里的钱来投票

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比任何财报电话会议或者华尔街分析师唱多

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都更具有说服力是吧

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但是股价还是被压着

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据说嗯

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OpenAI即将完成新一轮融资的第一阶段了哈

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预计融资额将会超过1000亿美元

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等这个融资完成之后啊

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嗯微软的股价才能够真正起来

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而且前提是大盘那时候不回调

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欧洲先卖后

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富龙TOCLANA因为财报不及预期

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股价暴跌

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虽然财报表面数据好看哈

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Q4总收入10.8亿美元

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同比增长38%

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其中美国市场营收同比增长58%

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总商品交易额同比增长32%

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高于直营范围的上限

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用户指标呢也加速增长

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活跃消费者数量同比增长28%

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商业数量呢增长了42%

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第四季度

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信用损失准备金

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下降到了商品交易总额的0.65%

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低于第三季度的0.72%

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但是公司依然没能实现扭亏为盈呃

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第四季度净亏损了2600万美元

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每股亏损19美分

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这样院参与华尔街预期的亏损二美分

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所以这个股票今天被砸的一点都不冤枉哈

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市场的反应完全是合理的

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此外呢3月9号股票解禁

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就是还有两周多的一时间呃

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届时将会有约3.35亿股原始股解禁哈

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这意味着早期的机构投资者和员工可以套现了

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投资者担心这一波解禁炒

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会导致市场上的股票供应过剩

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所以这种预期呢让今天这个股价雪上加霜嗯

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股价今天收在日内最低点附近

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就毫无承接买盘

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作为2025年9月上市的明星金融科技公司

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kana上市首日就是巅峰

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随后股价就呈现了单边下跌的趋势

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今天的收盘价比当初IPO价格40美元

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要低了65%

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较上市当天的峰值57美元

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更是回撤了75%哈

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让很多这个此前看好它的投资者都大跌眼镜

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市场对于这些先买后付模式

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在高利率环境下的坏账率呢是非常敏感的

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虽然呃嗯康纳A最新财报显示坏账率有所下降

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但是分析师仍担心他的公允融资业务呢

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在扩张过程中潜伏着信用质量恶化的风险

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在目前的2026年市场环境下

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投资者已经不再单纯看交易总额增长了哈

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而是按银行股的这个看利润和风险控制

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或者折价的成长股来定价

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目前CLIDD的市销率呢已经跌到二倍左右

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说明市场已经把它当成一个普通的贷款公司

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而并非是高增长科技公司来看待

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而且康纳在美国市场的扩张

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也面临着激烈的竞争啊

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比如小from apple pay

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谷歌pay等等哈

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为了获取新用户

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并且维持生产份额

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嗯他的营销和获客成本呢就比较高啊

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拖累了利润表现

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而且也面临越来越严厉的金融监管

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现在回过头来看的话

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这支股票单出40美元的IPO

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定价的确水分太高了

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上市初期

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那时候高盛

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摩根大通等大行们

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利用当时市场对金融科技回暖的预期

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把IPO价格定在35~37美元区间之上

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最终是40美元

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就包含了太多的成长溢价和投行包装了

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开盘当天的冲高

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更多是散户和机构对先买后付鼻祖的盲目追捧

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后面这一个跌跌不休走势

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就是市场在给kana挤水分了

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在他能证明自己可以稳定产生盈利

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并且呢平安度过下个月的解禁潮之前啊

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这种阴跌趋势很难扭转哈

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如果届时呃市场呃能够顺利的消化

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这解禁抛售压力

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股价或许才能够回暖

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另一只面临解禁压力的股票呢是figure

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解禁日期3月10号

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股价也已经提前就开始挤泡沫了

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从分值78美元一路狂涨到了33美元

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公司2月26号公布财报

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在此之前股价将会持续承压

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金融科技保险公司LMND财报公布之后

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股价盘前还大涨了

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开盘就高台跳水转跌了

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公司第四季度业绩表现出色

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营收同比增长53%哈大幅超出预期

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调整后一比塔亏损呢大幅收窄

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创下公司有史以来最强劲的季度业绩

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公司对2026年业绩指引也乐观

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好于生产预期

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并且重申

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2026年第四季度调整后EB它将会转正

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2027年全年实现盈利的预期目标

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财报日当天

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这个股价涨跌原因并不重要啊

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就是资金博弈的结果

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今天呃他的日K收出一根长黑棍

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让我想起上一次英伟达财报后的那根大黑棍了

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呃

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其实今天呃美股市场里

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所有的金融科技股表现都很差哈

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主要还是受到了这个

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昨天美联储鹰派倾向的会议纪要的影响

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这段时间嗯大盘的短线行情就真的很难做

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来来回回的

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其实一直都在绕圈子

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利空和利多因素交织

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高频交易呢主导市场

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如果不想做短线的话

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也可以休息

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或者呢呃多看少动哈

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去多了解市场

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等下周英伟达财报公布之后

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市场的反应再做打算也是可以的行

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今天我们就说到这里

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那我们明天见拜拜

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