【NaNa说美股】20260401川总办事，我们(不)放心～！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是4月1号

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周三受停火

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希望驱动美股呢延续了昨天的涨势

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集体高开高走

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虽然盘中一位媒体报道

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美军正派遣18架A10攻击机前往中东

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股指回落

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但是最终三大股指仍集体收涨

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投资者正试图从3月的恐慌中走出

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压住川普

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今晚的全国演说能够带来实质性的停火

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川普今天早上还对路透社记者表示

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美国的军事行动已经让伊朗无法拥有核武器

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军事目标已经达成

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将在两到三周内结束战争

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无论能否达成协议

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也无论嗯霍尔木兹海峡是否重新开放

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今天他又发帖称

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这个伊朗呢要求停火

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美国将会在霍尔木兹海峡开放之后嗯停火

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这川普所谓的伊朗新政权

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总统请求停火的声明纯属子虚乌有

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以前川普一个人在白宫搓K线

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现在是两边一起画线了

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不过虽然乙难否认

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市场也丝毫没有受到影响

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继续扩大了涨幅

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因为市场此前最担心的是美军陷入地面持久战

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那既然两到三周内无论如何都会结束的话

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市场就提前上涨定价战争结束的预期

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至于后面或木兹海峡是否继续封锁

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通胀是否爆表

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中期选举动荡等等啊

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各种其他的因素之后再考虑

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大不了到时候股价在下跌吗

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反正有波动

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华尔街才能够这个高抛低吸赚钱

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另外呢

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今天盘前公布的一系列好于预期的宏观数据

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也提振投资者对美国经济的信心

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使得近日来抬头的衰退担忧有所缓解

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受汽车销售反弹以及气温回暖带动

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美国2月零售销售额环比增长了0.6%

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略高于市场预期

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以高收入家庭为首的消费群体

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仍具备较强的支出动力

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主要得益于工资增长快于通胀

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以及退税规模的增加

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3月小非农呢同样超预期

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美国3月ADP就业人数增加了6.2万人

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远超预期的4万人

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薪资也加速增长

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劳动力市场依然保持稳健

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处于低裁员

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低招聘的状态

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美国3月ISM制造业指数为52.7位

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2022年58月以来的新高

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这要好于预期的52.3

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和前值的52.4

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宏观经济数据短期向好哈

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这个此前投资者担心

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中东局势引发的油价上涨与美股动荡

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可能会拖累美国经济

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最终呢导致衰退

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但如果战争迅速结束的话

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那投资者就认为这些影响也会很快的消散

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这个预期当然就过于乐观了

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停战不等于海峡会开放

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战争所造成的损失

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也需要更长的时间来修复

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即使美国与伊朗

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今天收盘后立即签署和平协议哈

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这种最乐观的结果呢

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也已经被这一波惊人的反弹所消化了

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所以美股过早定价的乐观呢

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将会在接下来的几个交易日

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通过回落来进行修正哈

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标普500指数今天小幅高开

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反弹的动能仍保持强劲

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今天指数已经重新回到了中性伽马区域

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三方面临着月均线和年限的双重阻力

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尤其是年限这个极其关键的心理和技术关口

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指数在持续暴跌之后

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第一次回收这一条牛熊分界线

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几乎90%的概率会遭到空投的猛烈回击

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即使当下情绪再亢奋

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多头也很难在没有实质性利好

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比如海峡正视这个通航的情况之下

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一口气放量站稳这条线哈

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另外呢

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指数从这个周一的低点拉到今天的高点

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短短两个交易日就完成了300点的垂直飙升

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所谓急跌必有反弹

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反过来急涨也必有回踩

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因为单纯依靠空头平仓与情绪修复

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带来的动力已经消耗殆尽

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那接下来的走势就需要实质性的基本面支撑

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技术指标呢也开始进入日内极度超买状态呃

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指数后面哈至少还会再次回踩6500点

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甚至可能更低的6400

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这要取决于油价与美债收益率的变化

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油价今天仍然在100美元附近徘徊

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宜兰村

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鉴于川普的荒谬表现

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海峡不会重新开放

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根据媒体报道

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视为油价的基准情景

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而没有排除冲到200美元的极端可能

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但是白宫方面是否认预测短期油价

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报道还援引知情人士称

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美国政府正探讨动用紧及权力

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限制原有出口等各种非常规手段

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以抑制国内的油价

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分析师警告

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供应空窗期将至

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真正冲击波约两周后嗯抵达

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美国

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柴油

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航空燃油等价格面临跳涨

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消费者的负担将会显著加重

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尤其是欧洲这边需要加油的朋友们赶紧去加

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如果油价后面再次飙升的话

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那个时候股市就会继续震荡下跌

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情绪也会再一次出现低落

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美股在4月份就可能会再次向下俯冲

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摩根大通建议投资者谨慎对待反弹

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直到更多的石油供应上限呃

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或者出现了停火协议的迹象

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微字只要海峡封锁一天不解除哈

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VIX指数就很难真正跌破20这条安全线

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虽然市场暂时反弹了

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但是VIX指数和期权市场的倾斜度显示

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投资者对黑天鹅事件的防备并没有显著减弱哈

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4月份的美股市场表现呢

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将会高度依赖于地缘政治的实质性进展

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包括停火协议的签署以及海峡开放啊

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还有这个即将到来的第一季度财报季

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就看嗯企业们的情商指引怎么说

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这个对于通胀是否计价

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是否侵蚀了企业的利润等等

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个股与板块方面

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据彭博透露

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space x已经秘密递交了美国IPO申请请

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距离实现6月份上市更近了一步

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公司正考虑在IPO中采用双重股权结构

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这个是为了给马斯克的内部人士额外的投票权

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以主导决策

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在此消息刺激之下呢

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太空概念再次集体走加

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Dixyz

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还有小月亮LUNR等等

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全都暴涨

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从SPACEX的上市时间点来推测哈

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美股市场在今年中期选举年的大回撤呃

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肯定在5月底之前就应该结束

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因为像SPACEX这么大的一个巨头

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他总不能够选在市场走熊的时候上市嗯

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华尔街那一些大成交商们

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肯定会帮马斯克计算出最佳的上市时间的

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英特尔股价呢连续两天大幅上涨消息

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美团公司宣布将支付142亿美元

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回购

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阿波罗基金持有的

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爱尔兰工厂49%股权

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这个举动

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被视为

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公司财务复苏和战略重心转变的积极信号

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尤其是在AI算力需求爆发的背景下

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公司CFO称

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如今英特尔已经拥有更强劲的资产负债表

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更严格的财务纪律呃

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以及优化的业务战略

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为重新掌控核心制造资产提供了底气

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这家工厂是英特尔在欧洲的主要制造基地

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主要生产个人电脑以及服务器处理器

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工厂

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目前采用的是英特尔斯和英特尔三制程技术

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公司计划以更先进的18A制程来取而代之

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存储概念股今天是领涨标普500哈

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随着暴力反弹的开启

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资金正重新流向这些高贝塔资产

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美光科技股价今天站在年线上大幅反弹

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一扫前几日的颓势啊

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行业专家认为

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今年第二季度d ram价格将会继续上涨

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none的价格后续呢仍将保持坚挺

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由于内存制造商仍优先生产高利润的人工智能

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服务器应用产品

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传统节点的供应失衡状况将会持续存在

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上周大家也看到了

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存储板块是跟着大盘持续下跌

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作为全球存储芯片大本营的韩国股市

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更是掉进了技术性熊市

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三星和海力士

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被外资像倒垃圾一样的疯狂抛售呀

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拖累了美股存储板块的表现

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市场一跌

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质疑声就会迅速放大

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哎呀这一轮AI驱动的存储行情

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到底是真的进入新周期了呀

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还是仍然逃不过传统周期股的老规矩呢

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现在呢一暴力反弹啊

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大家又开始喊新高了哈

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情绪转变可以说是非常的剧烈

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我觉得主要还是得看大盘是不是稳住了

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如果大盘不稳的话

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00:09:53,639 --> 00:09:57,600
那这些高逼他的股票都不能够独善其身

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加固文呢启动了全公司范围的裁员计划

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通过人力成本示范现金流

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集中资源

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推进AI基础设施建设

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分析师估算

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00:10:08,659 --> 00:10:12,720
如果公司最终裁员规模达到2万到3万人的话

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00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,519
那每年可以为甲骨文释放80亿到

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100亿美元的自由现金流

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嗯大家也知道

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00:10:18,659 --> 00:10:21,919
受这个AI项目巨额投入影响哈

220
00:10:21,919 --> 00:10:24,950
甲骨文在2025财年的自由现金流

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已经转为负值了

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00:10:26,389 --> 00:10:28,610
所以这个股价就一砸到底

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00:10:28,610 --> 00:10:31,970
投资者担心公司的传统数据库业务

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00:10:31,970 --> 00:10:34,940
可能会受到AI原生企业的冲击

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00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:39,419
嗯而他为OpenAI等大客户建设数据中心的战略呢

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00:10:39,419 --> 00:10:42,600
可能会长期压制甲骨文的盈利能力

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近年来

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00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,980
甲骨文持续加大资本支出

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00:10:45,980 --> 00:10:47,000
与亚马逊

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微软等云巨头竞向建设AI数据中心

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00:10:51,500 --> 00:10:54,379
但是甲骨文他自己的体量相对较小

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00:10:54,379 --> 00:10:56,340
长期依赖债务融资

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00:10:56,340 --> 00:10:57,500
职称扩张

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00:10:57,500 --> 00:10:59,460
嗯根据彭博社报道

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00:10:59,460 --> 00:11:03,019
甲骨文位于密歇根州的一个数据中心项目哈

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又即将获得160亿美元的融资

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00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,080
尽管面临短期阵痛

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00:11:13,129 --> 00:11:16,929
预计2027财年营收将会达到900亿美元

239
00:11:16,929 --> 00:11:19,710
较此前预期呢上调了10亿美元

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00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:21,110
这个营收没有用啊

241
00:11:21,110 --> 00:11:24,419
你得说说你的自有现金流情况到底怎么样

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00:11:27,580 --> 00:11:29,019
这跌的有点狠了

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00:11:29,019 --> 00:11:31,340
一丁点反弹都没有

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00:11:31,340 --> 00:11:33,600
昨天我还以为他会低开高走

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00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,169
完全没有哈

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00:11:35,169 --> 00:11:38,169
公司季度营收与利润虽然都超出预期

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00:11:38,169 --> 00:11:41,090
但是管理层给出的前瞻指引太悲观了

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00:11:41,090 --> 00:11:43,700
鉴于运动服装市场的疲软

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客流量模式的变化

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00:11:45,589 --> 00:11:48,589
预计本季度公司营收将会下降

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2%到4%

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00:11:50,009 --> 00:11:54,679
而且呢这种低迷态势可能会持续整个日历年

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00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,320
大中华区的销售额连续第七个季度下降了

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00:11:58,320 --> 00:11:59,440
一点办法都没有

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00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:03,860
同时由于促销活动和战争所导致的交通中断

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00:12:03,860 --> 00:12:07,799
欧洲与中东地区的库存水平处于高位

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00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:12,100
这些负面因素以及嗯和其他业务领域的疲软

258
00:12:12,100 --> 00:12:15,039
就掩盖了北美地区的强劲业绩

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00:12:15,039 --> 00:12:16,000
除此之外呢

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00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,779
耐克的毛利率也连续第六个季度收缩

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降到了40.2%

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00:12:20,710 --> 00:12:24,360
主要原因是关税所导致的利润率压力

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00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,960
投资者其实啊这几个月就一直在等待着

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00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,299
新任CEO上台之后能够扭转公司基本面

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00:12:31,299 --> 00:12:33,429
结果呢财报出来哈

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00:12:33,429 --> 00:12:34,870
复苏梦碎了

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00:12:34,870 --> 00:12:37,220
投资者就彻底失失去耐心了呀

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00:12:37,220 --> 00:12:39,100
大量抛售手里的股票

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00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:42,159
已宣泄不满和失望情绪

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00:12:42,159 --> 00:12:44,220
股价日内放量下跌

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00:12:44,220 --> 00:12:46,519
而且是在日内最低点附近

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00:12:46,519 --> 00:12:50,230
就是呃连一个空头回补都没有出现

273
00:12:50,230 --> 00:12:52,990
或许空头昨天回补平仓了

274
00:12:52,990 --> 00:12:58,679
今天反正是纯粹的多头踩踏现场时代已经变了

275
00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,379
非必需消费品的那个行业

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00:13:01,379 --> 00:13:02,840
比如像什么百货啦

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00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:03,580
服装啦

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00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:04,139
鞋类啊

279
00:13:04,139 --> 00:13:07,210
这些股票已经不再受年轻一代

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00:13:07,210 --> 00:13:08,730
股民们的喜爱了哈

281
00:13:08,730 --> 00:13:11,149
而且这些行业竞争又激烈

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00:13:11,149 --> 00:13:12,710
技术门槛又低

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00:13:12,710 --> 00:13:14,970
不是投资的好选择

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00:13:14,970 --> 00:13:16,110
美股市场里

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00:13:16,110 --> 00:13:20,009
说实话最终还是科技股才是首选

286
00:13:20,009 --> 00:13:22,529
好了个股呢我们就说到这哈

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00:13:22,529 --> 00:13:23,370
晚上九点

288
00:13:23,370 --> 00:13:27,169
大家有时间可以看看川普的直播都说了些什么

289
00:13:27,169 --> 00:13:31,149
如果他的演讲缺乏实质性的和平协议

290
00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:33,309
还是停留在口头威胁

291
00:13:33,309 --> 00:13:35,919
或者是模模糊糊的人那些愿景

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00:13:35,919 --> 00:13:40,349
那市场可能会迅速重新进入战争风险

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00:13:40,349 --> 00:13:43,509
尤其明天周四是本周最后一个交易日

294
00:13:43,509 --> 00:13:45,568
随后就是三天的长周末了

295
00:13:45,568 --> 00:13:48,379
指数又临近这条年线高压

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00:13:48,379 --> 00:13:52,220
多头资金可能会选择在长周末前获利了结

297
00:13:52,220 --> 00:13:54,350
避免周末出现黑天鹅

298
00:13:54,350 --> 00:13:57,190
所以目前不是追涨的时候哈

299
00:13:57,190 --> 00:14:00,700
这个应该趁着反弹调整自己仓位

300
00:14:00,700 --> 00:14:05,580
迎接4月份可能会出现的二次探底考验

301
00:14:05,580 --> 00:14:08,980
这个二次探底不一定会比周一更低

302
00:14:08,980 --> 00:14:11,999
但是至少至少会有回落的行

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00:14:11,999 --> 00:14:13,379
我们就说到这里

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00:14:13,379 --> 00:14:14,820
那我们明天见拜拜

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