伯恩斯坦-康卡斯特公司（CMCSA.US）：2026年一季度：进展而非胜利-260423

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康卡斯特的最新财报出来了

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里面的数字挺有意思的

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但光看数字还不够对吧

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所以今天我们就来挖一挖

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看看顶尖投行伯恩施坦是怎么解读这份财报的

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他们到底看到了哪些

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我们普通人可能会忽略掉的东西

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这句话特别有意思

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而非胜利宣告

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一句话就把整个调子给定了下来

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什么意思呢

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就是说嗯干的不错

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有进步

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但别急着开香槟庆祝

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所以我们今天看这份财报

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就得带着这种谨慎乐观的眼光

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好在咱们一头扎进各种数据之前

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先看个大方向

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这听起来有点专业

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其实说白了就是

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他们觉得这支股票未来的表现嘛

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可能就跟大盘差不多

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不会一飞冲天

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但也不会掉队

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记住这一点

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这可是我们理解后面所有分析的一个大前提行

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为了让大家听得更明白

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咱们今天就分几步走

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首先聊聊为啥说是进展而非胜利

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然后呢重点看看他们的核心业务

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宽带

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这里面有不少取舍和平衡

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接着是一个大亮点

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XFINITY移动业务今年表现特别抢眼

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之后再看看主题公园和电影这些隐藏高手

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当然了

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大家最关心的PICON流媒体

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它的盈利问题到底怎么样了

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最后咱们把所有线索汇总一下

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看看分析师到底是怎么想的

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OK那咱们就先从最重要的部分开始

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也就是康卡斯特的看家本领

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宽带业务这块业务啊

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现在可不是简单的增长了

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更像是在玩一种平衡术

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一个关于如何取舍的故事

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这个平衡术的核心矛盾就在这儿

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好消息是

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跑调的用户变少了

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稳住了基本盘

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但天下没有免费的午餐对吧

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代价就是平均下来

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从每个用户身上赚的钱也少了

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这就像是做生意

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你知道顾客多

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但单价低一点呢

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还是要顾客少点

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但每个都赚的多

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康卡斯特这季度就选了前者

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这两张图放在一起看就特别清楚了

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你看左边这张代表用户流失的那个柱子

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是不是越来越短了

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说明情况在好转

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但你再看右边这张代表每户平均收入

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也就是AARPU的曲线诶

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他拐头向下了

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所以说这就是一个很明显的策略

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选择用利润空间换取用户的留存

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付6万5000

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这个数字就是那个好消息

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为什么说是好消息呢

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因为之前华尔街的大佬们都预测

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会流失16万呢

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相比之下只流失了6万5

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这简直是好太多了

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这说明什么

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说明他们之前搞的那些促销活动

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比如那个叫传奇2月的

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还真管用了

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他不需要做到最好

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只需要做得更好

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这话说的太到位了

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你想啊

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现在宽带市场竞争多激烈

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大家都在抢客户

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对康卡斯特来说

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现阶段的目标可能就不是要大杀四方

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而是先稳住

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别再继续失血了

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只要情况在慢慢变好

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投资者就愿意给你点赞好了

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宽带这块挑战不小

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但咱们看完了

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现在咱们换个频道来看一个完全不同的故事

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康卡斯特的移动业务xfinity mobile

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那简直就是冉冉升起的新星

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充满了阳光和希望

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看这个数字

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43万5000哇

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这是什么概念

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这是他们一个季度新增的手机用户数

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而且是有史以来最好的单季表现

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这个数字一出来

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你就知道他们的移动业务战略

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现在是开足了马力往前冲啊

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光说数字可能没感觉

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你看这张图

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这个增长的柱子是不是一季比一季高

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这可不是碰运气

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这是一条非常漂亮的加速增长曲线

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说明他们的策略是持续有效的

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而且效果还在不断放大

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那问题来了

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他们一个搞宽带的

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干嘛这么拼命的去做手机业务呢

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背后的算盘其实在这

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你想啊

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如果你的手机和宽带都是一家的

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你是不是就不太想换了吗

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麻烦吗

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这就是捆绑销售的威力

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能大大提高用户的忠诚度

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更关键的是什么

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你看图上这个数字

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目前只有16python的的宽带用户

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办了他们的手机业务

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我的天

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这意味着什么

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这背后是海量的还没被开发的增长空间呢

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好接下来咱们聊点儿

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可能大家平时关注不多的

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但这次却成了大功臣的业务

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当所有人的木工都盯着宽带和流媒体的时候

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康卡斯特的主题公园和电影工作室

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悄悄地交出了一份惊艳的成绩单

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可以说是意想不到的英雄

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咱们直接上数据感受一下

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主题公园收入同比增长了多少

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24.3percent

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在现在这个经济环境下

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这个增长率太厉害了

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特别是奥兰多的环球影城

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简直是印钞机

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然后看电影这块收入和利润都远远超过了预期

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超了100多percent

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有意思的是

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这里面还有一些老剧的功劳

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比如我们很熟悉的office case

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光是把他授权给自家的PECOCK平台

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就带来了一大笔收入

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所以你看这就是重点

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我们总觉得康卡斯特就是个有线电视公司

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但别忘了他是个庞大的媒体帝国

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这些看起来很传统的业务

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比如主题公园

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电影制作依然有非常强的造血能力

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他们是整个公司的压舱石

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非常稳

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OK聊完了稳的

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咱们就得来聊聊那个最刺激

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最烧钱

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也最让人揪心的业务了

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流媒体平台peacock

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这绝对是康卡斯特下的一盘大棋

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一场高风险的赌博

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所有所有人都想知道

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就一个问题

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这东西到底什么时候能赚钱呢

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用户是在涨

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但烧钱的速度也很快

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他到底什么时候才能从一个花钱的儿子

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变成一个能赚钱的儿子呢

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这两张图放在一起

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戏剧性就出来了

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左边你看订阅用户数一路向上

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已经到了4600万

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不错吧

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但你再看右边代表亏损的这个柱子也高得吓人

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这就是peacock的现状

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一边是用户的增长

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一边是巨额的亏损

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典型的赔本赚吆喝

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具体到这个季度就是这样

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新增了200万用户

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听起来不错

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但为了这200万用户

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公司亏了4.32亿美元

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这个增长和成本之间的平衡怎么找

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这不光是peacock的难题

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其实整个流媒体行业都在头疼这件事

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好了

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我们把坤带移动主题公园

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流媒体这几个大块儿都看了一遍

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现在是时候把这些拼图都拼起来

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最后得出了一个什么样的总体看法

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这张总结表就特别清晰

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你看啊

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宽带业务分析师的评价是取得进展

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稳住了

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移动业务呢辉煌一年没得说

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主题公园是个大亮点

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而peacock依然是个难题

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所以你看把这些加在一起

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这个季度虽然有挑战

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但总的来说好消息还是比坏消息多

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那如果非要用一个词来总结

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康卡斯特现在正来做的事

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我觉得就是融合这个词儿特别关键

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他的终极目标是什么

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就是不再让你觉得哦

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我是在买他家的宽带或者他家的手机

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而是让你买一个康卡斯特家庭套餐

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里面啥都有

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上网打电话

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看电影

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看体育比赛

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把所有东西都打包给你

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这样你就离不开它了

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这就是融合战略的核心

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那么聊到最后

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我们再回到最初的那个标题

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这个季度

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康卡斯特毫无疑问地向我们展示了进展

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这还不是胜利

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要知道在现在这个媒体和通信行业竞争

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简直就是贴身肉搏

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那么他们能把这些好的苗头

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最终变成一场真正意义上的大胜利吗

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这个问题恐怕才是未来最值得我们持续关注的

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