【NaNa说美股】20260506踏破虚空升天了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月6号

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周三盘前呢

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有两个消息再次点燃了市场风险偏好

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先是川普发帖称

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给予巴基斯坦与其他国家的请求

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而且与伊朗代表达成的全面最终协议

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也取得了重大进展

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暂停自由计划

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嗯一段时间帖子出来之后呢

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W原油立刻就跌超2%

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几个小时后

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ax use斯网站有跳出来爆料称

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据知情人士透露

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美伊双方已经接近达成

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一份极简主义谅解备忘录

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目标呢实现叫停战争

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再慢条斯理的弹劾问题

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川普正掐着表

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坐等伊朗在48小时内给出终极答复

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这一份只有14项条款的单页合约

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有川普特使威特科夫与女婿库斯纳操刀哈嗯

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核心内容包括

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伊朗将承诺暂停铀浓缩活动

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美国呢则同意解除对伊朗的制裁

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并且释放数10亿美元被冻结的伊朗资金

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霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行自由

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双方不再互相锁喉

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签字之后

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船上就可以美滋滋地宣布地区战争结束

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并且启动为期30天的谈判期

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已达成一项更详细的协议

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还是去老地方

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巴基斯坦或者瑞士继续测批

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如果30天内谈不拢

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到时候再掀桌子

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这个消息一出

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金融市场瞬间集体加息

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美股股指期货与现货黄金盘前就短线拉升

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国际原油价格呢再次大跳水

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客观来说哈

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什么谅解备忘录

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这不就是原先的停火协议又严查嘛

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所以之前那一个月哈

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那个停火谈判根本就没有取得任何的进展

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现在又回到了原点

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而且现在这一封备忘录

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甚至比原来的停火协议更软

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可以称之为美国的求和书

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至少上次美国还是强硬要求伊朗交出浓缩铀呃

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没有说解除制裁也不给钱

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伊朗呢啊

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这一次哈是有可能这个有条件的答应了

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因为条件比上次好多了

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但是以色列没有拿到浓缩铀

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不可能善罢甘休

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今天内塔尼亚胡就说啊

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以色列一直在为局势升级做准备呢

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要移除伊朗所有浓缩铀材料

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消除伊朗浓缩

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有能力无论如何都要实现这个目标

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唯一的功劳

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可能就是给了金融市场一个集体嗨一下的借口

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前几天评论区里我记得有位朋友问我

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怎么看原油做多还是做空

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我说原油啊

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他是个被高度操纵的市场哈

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背后有多方势力拉扯博弈

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不是我们小散能够深度参与的一个市场

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只能在把握很的时候快进快出

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捞一把就走

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不能够残留

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你看今天油价日内这么一下子暴跌

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拉爆多少杠杆多头啊

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这就是在震慑石油多头哈

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因为油价涨太多了

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自今年2月美国对伊朗开展军事行动以来呢

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美国的油价已经暴涨了约50%

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若是再这么继续涨上去

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年内降息就泡汤了哈

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那年底的中期选举也得凉凉

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所以选在这个点去放风

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就是用最低的成本几张嘴是吧

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这不叫外交谈判哈

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这叫预期管理以下的能源价格调控

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伊朗人也心知肚明

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川普现在急需利好来平息国内的压力

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所以这也是啊他们坐地起价

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争取有利条件的最好的时机

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各期限美债收益率今天也大幅回落

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美联储也暗搓搓的出手帮忙

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美联储呢现在正在大量的买入美债

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支撑这个债市

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自去年12月以来

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美联储就已经购买了2000

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370亿美元的美债

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这也让美联储的资产负债表上的总资产

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达到了6.7万亿美元

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为2025年5月以来最高水平

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无论美联储是否称之为量化宽松啊

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还是单纯隔夜逆回购操作

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效果都是一样的哈

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都是这个资产负债表节节攀升

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10年期美债收益早就冲上4.5%了

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这个背后也是白宫的意志哈

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2025年4月

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关税担忧成

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将4年期民的收益率推高到4.5%以上

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同舟川普就宣布暂停关税90天

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并且亲自表示债券市场变得有点躁动

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他宣布暂停关税

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那一刻

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收益率立即就下跌了

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股市暴涨

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2025年5月

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收益率呢再次向4.5%逼近

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川普随即宣布与中国达成贸易协议框架

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结果也相同

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收益率下跌

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市场在声明之后立即飙升

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同年的7月份

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正当这个4年期美债收益率

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再次触及4.5%的时候

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美国和中国宣布延长关税协议

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收益率下跌

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市场因为这个消息反弹

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另外呢别看美联储和白宫表面上闹得很凶

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实际上互相打配合很有默契

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所谓的不和啦

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独立性问题那都是演给大家看的

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美联储并不是不想降息哈

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而是现在数据实在是不支持嗯

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那毕竟这个表面的遮羞布还是要有的嘛

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不能做的像川普那样赤裸裸是吧

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实际上如果通胀数据允许的话

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美联储比谁都更想要降息

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最近的一次嗯

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就是今年3月下旬

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10年期门收益率呢

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又再次逼近4.5%这个水平了

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仅仅几天后

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川普就宣布了美伊停火协议

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收益率下跌

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股市在同一周内创下了历史新高

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最新这一次啊

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就再次证明了川普总是大口

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本周一呢

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因为川普提出自有计划

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美伊在霍尔木兹海峡发生摩擦

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收益率再次逼近4.5%

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然后今天就仅隔两天之后

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川普就宣布暂停自由计划

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而即将达成啊

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连续五次同一个水平是吧

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每次结果都相同

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反正每次收益率接近4.5%的时候

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总是会有一个重大利好事件被宣布呃

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收益率随之呢就剧烈回落

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股市大涨

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交易员们把此称为taco交易

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所以taco并不是玄学

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实际上额收益率的上升并不可怕哈

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真正需要警惕的是背后的驱动结构是否健康

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如果收益率升破4.5%

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是因为美国经济太强劲

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投资需求旺盛所导致的

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那属于健康的成长痛

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但如果是因为财政无序扩张

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关税扰动

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以及债权供给过剩而需求不足所推动的话

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那么反映的就是融资环境恶化与信用定价失衡

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风险性质呢就更接近于系统性压力的累积

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出问题了

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那就是心肌梗塞

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所以市场其实是可以接受更高的利率的

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只是不能接受一个乱搞

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而且欠债很多的政府带来的高利率

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川普也很清楚这一点

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所以才把这个4.5%看作呢

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美国经济的承重恰收益率一旦突破了这个水平

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就不再仅仅是债券市场的事情啊

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而开始成为股市

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金融系统的杠杆率太高了哈

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无法忽视这个风险

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所以每当收益率触碰这条红线

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它就会扔出一个重磅利好来对冲

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为了压住这条红线

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他什么剧本都可以写得出来

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而且市场也认可

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至于事实真相如何

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没有人在意哈

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价格走势说明了一切

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毕竟这是华尔街老美自己的市场

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那当然还是得多少看白宫的脸色

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有美联储在旁边放水

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有白宫在旁边托市

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那金融市场自然就水涨船高

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QQ自3月31号以来

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这一轮展示斜率已经呈现抛物线态势了哈

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即使今天盘中

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以色列国防军

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对黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特地区又发动了袭击

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还有美国战机向一艘试图驶入伊朗港口的

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伊朗机游轮开火

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美股涨势也没有发生丝毫的动摇

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就不管呃

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这到底情况如何

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这川普给了我们这一个中办利好

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想要我们呃砸油价

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这个砸收益率

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捧股市

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那不就这么做吗

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除非后面QQ跌破这一条10日均线

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这轮涨势才能够暂告一个段落

216
00:09:33,500 --> 00:09:38,279
否则的话QQ可能会在毫无正常回调的情况之下

217
00:09:38,279 --> 00:09:42,320
直接冲向这个月度和年度主力700美元哈

218
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,700
然后才回调

219
00:09:43,700 --> 00:09:46,179
标普500指数今天呢跳空高开

220
00:09:46,179 --> 00:09:49,019
直接站上了7300点整数关口

221
00:09:49,019 --> 00:09:52,820
地缘政治利好对冲了昨天尾盘的抛压呃

222
00:09:52,820 --> 00:09:55,899
今天尾盘收在日内最高点附近

223
00:09:55,899 --> 00:09:57,759
情绪非常的强势哈

224
00:09:57,759 --> 00:10:00,639
指数已经来到了此前美银所预测的

225
00:10:00,639 --> 00:10:03,360
这一轮流动性释放的阶段性顶部

226
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,190
7308~7377区间

227
00:10:07,190 --> 00:10:08,129
美银说

228
00:10:08,129 --> 00:10:10,590
当指数达到这个水平后

229
00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:14,019
回调修正的风险才会逐渐增加

230
00:10:14,019 --> 00:10:15,279
那我们就拭目以待

231
00:10:15,279 --> 00:10:17,580
后续走势是否会如美银所说的

232
00:10:17,580 --> 00:10:19,870
从这里开始触底回调

233
00:10:19,870 --> 00:10:22,980
还是直接就嘎到7500点

234
00:10:22,980 --> 00:10:23,899
个股方面

235
00:10:23,899 --> 00:10:26,559
AMD股价今天大涨18.6%

236
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,360
日线图留下了一个巨大的跳空缺口

237
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,480
自4月2号以来呃

238
00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,279
AAMD股价这一轮涨势

239
00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:35,919
连10日均线都没有回踩过哈

240
00:10:35,919 --> 00:10:37,990
虽然有基本面的支撑

241
00:10:37,990 --> 00:10:40,589
但是formal情绪也是非常的严重

242
00:10:40,589 --> 00:10:42,708
熟悉AMD的朋友们都知道

243
00:10:42,708 --> 00:10:45,428
这也是美股市场里的一只老庄股了

244
00:10:45,428 --> 00:10:48,009
涨跌的趋势性非常的强

245
00:10:48,009 --> 00:10:52,110
在过程中可以无视任何的利好或利空

246
00:10:52,110 --> 00:10:55,450
就不杀死所有空头或多头

247
00:10:55,450 --> 00:10:57,328
之前呢就绝不拐头

248
00:10:57,328 --> 00:10:58,609
对于这种股票啊

249
00:10:58,609 --> 00:11:00,109
一句保命真言

250
00:11:00,109 --> 00:11:01,788
那就是顺势而为哈

251
00:11:01,788 --> 00:11:03,309
逆势都是找死

252
00:11:03,309 --> 00:11:06,789
在上涨趋势中绝不能够冒险做空

253
00:11:06,789 --> 00:11:10,029
无论这涨势看起来有多么的超买

254
00:11:10,029 --> 00:11:11,129
多么的离谱

255
00:11:11,129 --> 00:11:14,009
下跌趋势中也不能够频繁的抄底

256
00:11:14,009 --> 00:11:16,350
无论看起来有多么的超卖

257
00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:20,090
多么的这个跌出价值只能够顺茅庐

258
00:11:20,090 --> 00:11:21,970
你要顺着趋势去做

259
00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:23,309
就追涨杀跌

260
00:11:23,309 --> 00:11:27,940
千万不要呃做那个少数的聪明人去挡这大势

261
00:11:27,940 --> 00:11:30,500
AI star networks股价今年重挫

262
00:11:30,500 --> 00:11:32,279
公司一季度业绩超预期

263
00:11:32,279 --> 00:11:34,299
营收同比增长35%

264
00:11:34,299 --> 00:11:37,250
调整后每股收益呢同比增长34%

265
00:11:37,250 --> 00:11:38,529
数据都很好看哈

266
00:11:38,529 --> 00:11:41,049
但是二季度展望呢仅仅符合

267
00:11:41,049 --> 00:11:42,769
与其没有进一步的善修

268
00:11:42,769 --> 00:11:45,629
同时二季度运营利润率指引

269
00:11:45,629 --> 00:11:47,509
46%到47%

270
00:11:47,509 --> 00:11:50,950
这要略低于上年同期的48.8%

271
00:11:50,950 --> 00:11:53,669
作为数据中心网络交换机龙头

272
00:11:53,669 --> 00:11:54,309
阿瑞斯特呢

273
00:11:54,309 --> 00:11:57,690
它是云计算和AI基础设施的重要一环

274
00:11:57,690 --> 00:12:00,669
直接受益于AI基建热潮

275
00:12:00,669 --> 00:12:04,519
因此呢也被市场给予较高的预期和估值哈

276
00:12:04,519 --> 00:12:06,100
但现实只是达标

277
00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:07,769
而并非更好的话

278
00:12:07,769 --> 00:12:09,789
那资金就会选择落袋为安

279
00:12:09,789 --> 00:12:12,549
股价呢也就随之承压回落了

280
00:12:12,549 --> 00:12:16,340
hut股价今天飙升了35.3%

281
00:12:16,340 --> 00:12:19,700
公司宣布已经签署了一份为期15年保底

282
00:12:19,700 --> 00:12:22,230
价值98亿美元的租赁协议

283
00:12:22,230 --> 00:12:26,029
将为一家高投资等级公司提供算力支持

284
00:12:26,029 --> 00:12:29,288
这也是一家从比特币挖矿转型

285
00:12:29,288 --> 00:12:31,168
去干AI数据中心的公司

286
00:12:31,168 --> 00:12:34,149
通过手里持有的另一家加密货币公司

287
00:12:34,149 --> 00:12:36,029
ABTC的股份

288
00:12:36,029 --> 00:12:39,509
与川普的两个儿子拉上了线呃

289
00:12:39,509 --> 00:12:42,049
这公司基本面什么都不用看了哈

290
00:12:42,049 --> 00:12:43,289
反正都是投机

291
00:12:43,289 --> 00:12:45,409
都是内幕人士交易嘛

292
00:12:45,409 --> 00:12:48,789
迪士尼盘前交出了一份超预期财报

293
00:12:48,789 --> 00:12:51,559
第二财季营收同比增长7%

294
00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,240
调整后每股收益1.57美元

295
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:55,840
娱乐体验和体育

296
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,100
这三大业务的运营利润都超过了是残余期

297
00:12:59,100 --> 00:13:03,919
流媒体业务更是首次实现了双位数利润率

298
00:13:03,919 --> 00:13:07,019
完成了公司多年来的核心战略目标

299
00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:09,860
同时呢主题公园的需求也依然稳健

300
00:13:09,860 --> 00:13:11,399
客单价提升

301
00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:14,799
公司将全年调整后的盈利增速指引

302
00:13:14,799 --> 00:13:16,360
明确为大约12%

303
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:20,019
并且重申2027财年实现双位数增长

304
00:13:20,019 --> 00:13:23,539
新任CEO上任后的这首份完整的季报

305
00:13:23,539 --> 00:13:25,279
好算是一个不错的开局

306
00:13:25,279 --> 00:13:28,480
股价今天呢就应声上涨超7%

307
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,039
不过拉长时间来看

308
00:13:30,039 --> 00:13:32,360
迪士尼过去一年啊基本跑平

309
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,649
而标普500同期呢上涨约29%

310
00:13:35,649 --> 00:13:36,610
今年以来

311
00:13:36,610 --> 00:13:39,769
截止昨天股价仍下跌约12%

312
00:13:39,769 --> 00:13:41,110
明显跑输大盘

313
00:13:41,110 --> 00:13:45,259
这次财报有望在一定程度上修复市场的信心

314
00:13:45,259 --> 00:13:48,059
诺和诺德呢难得在财报后上涨

315
00:13:48,059 --> 00:13:49,480
虽然绩点涨的不多

316
00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,399
公司一季度营收同比下滑10%不及预期

317
00:13:53,399 --> 00:13:57,029
反映出降价压力仍在侵蚀收入端

318
00:13:57,029 --> 00:14:00,610
但是净利润同比大增67%

319
00:14:00,610 --> 00:14:02,289
显著超过预期

320
00:14:02,289 --> 00:14:05,389
主要受益于成本与产品结构优化

321
00:14:05,389 --> 00:14:08,609
以及V购V口服减肥药大卖

322
00:14:08,609 --> 00:14:12,369
嗯它的股价自2024年中以来呢持续承压

323
00:14:12,369 --> 00:14:16,460
市场对公司的长期竞争力仍然较为谨慎

324
00:14:16,460 --> 00:14:19,299
公司小幅上调了2026年业绩指引

325
00:14:19,299 --> 00:14:22,220
预计全年调整后的销售额将会同比下降

326
00:14:22,220 --> 00:14:23,919
4%到12%

327
00:14:23,919 --> 00:14:27,259
相比此前最大降幅13%的预期呢

328
00:14:27,259 --> 00:14:29,919
这个收窄的幅度相当有限

329
00:14:29,919 --> 00:14:31,100
区间较宽

330
00:14:31,100 --> 00:14:34,539
说明管理层对定价和竞争环境

331
00:14:34,539 --> 00:14:36,500
仍缺乏明确的把握哈

332
00:14:36,500 --> 00:14:39,620
随着礼来口服减肥药也正式入局

333
00:14:39,620 --> 00:14:42,929
这个口服赛道竞争的全面升级

334
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,700
UBER1季度营收同比增长14%

335
00:14:50,700 --> 00:14:51,679
略低于预期

336
00:14:51,679 --> 00:14:53,919
主要受婉约车业务拖累

337
00:14:53,919 --> 00:14:55,799
板块只增长了5%

338
00:14:55,799 --> 00:14:59,759
他的外卖配送业务呢继续高增长

339
00:14:59,759 --> 00:15:03,799
由于公司持有的滴滴和grab股权大幅贬值

340
00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:07,740
一季度净利润受到大约15亿美元的纸面冲击

341
00:15:07,740 --> 00:15:10,980
从去年同期的17.8亿美元

342
00:15:10,980 --> 00:15:13,289
降到了只有2.63亿美元

343
00:15:13,289 --> 00:15:15,009
每股收益13美分

344
00:15:15,009 --> 00:15:16,250
远低于预期

345
00:15:16,250 --> 00:15:19,629
不过呢公司给出的订单交易额指引

346
00:15:19,629 --> 00:15:21,690
高达562.5亿

347
00:15:21,690 --> 00:15:23,990
到577.5亿美元之间

348
00:15:23,990 --> 00:15:26,450
大幅超出市场预期

349
00:15:26,450 --> 00:15:29,230
同时持续推进降本增效

350
00:15:29,230 --> 00:15:30,429
全面引入AI

351
00:15:30,429 --> 00:15:32,039
提升研发效率

352
00:15:32,039 --> 00:15:34,220
股价今天也涨了8.4%

353
00:15:34,220 --> 00:15:36,279
收盘价站上了半年线

354
00:15:36,279 --> 00:15:38,799
UPST在售重锤公司

355
00:15:38,799 --> 00:15:40,799
一季度营收3.08亿美元

356
00:15:40,799 --> 00:15:42,919
同比增长44.5%

357
00:15:42,919 --> 00:15:44,089
略超预期

358
00:15:44,089 --> 00:15:48,788
但是录得664.6万美元的净亏损哈

359
00:15:48,788 --> 00:15:51,928
同时呢2026财年收入指引14亿美元

360
00:15:51,928 --> 00:15:53,009
不及预期

361
00:15:53,009 --> 00:15:54,529
幸亏去年年底的时候

362
00:15:54,529 --> 00:15:56,090
我把这个垃圾给割了

363
00:15:56,090 --> 00:15:58,330
做了那个亏损来抵税

364
00:15:58,330 --> 00:16:01,029
当时能下定决心割肉

365
00:16:01,029 --> 00:16:03,289
主要就是因为这个公司的管理层呢

366
00:16:03,289 --> 00:16:05,840
没有按照此前承诺的

367
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:10,099
把留在资产负债表上的贷款余额全给弄出去

368
00:16:10,099 --> 00:16:12,259
要么公司的诚信有问题

369
00:16:12,259 --> 00:16:14,038
要么就是现实的一些原因

370
00:16:14,038 --> 00:16:16,538
逼得这个公司管理层不得不这么做

371
00:16:16,538 --> 00:16:19,029
以维持他的贷款业务的增长

372
00:16:19,029 --> 00:16:22,110
不然的话可能就没办法继续推进业务了

373
00:16:22,110 --> 00:16:23,230
无论哪种原因哈

374
00:16:23,230 --> 00:16:24,470
都不是什么好事

375
00:16:24,470 --> 00:16:27,509
所以呢当时立即就扔掉这个股票

376
00:16:27,509 --> 00:16:29,870
股价近几个月持续下行

377
00:16:29,870 --> 00:16:33,679
反映出市场对美国消费者信用状况

378
00:16:33,679 --> 00:16:36,759
就业风险以及贷款业务波动的担忧

379
00:16:36,759 --> 00:16:39,240
而在当前高利率环境下

380
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,960
这类金融科技公司都处于宏观逆风中

381
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:44,849
被华尔街给抛弃了啊

382
00:16:44,849 --> 00:16:48,589
要等美联储什么时候重新开始推进

383
00:16:48,589 --> 00:16:51,200
持续降息才能够迎来拐点

384
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,320
但这UPST的股票基本面不太行啊

385
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,529
还是sofa与罗宾或者更值得关注

386
00:16:58,529 --> 00:17:01,129
SMCI第三财季实现了营收

387
00:17:01,129 --> 00:17:02,570
102.4亿美元

388
00:17:02,570 --> 00:17:04,650
同比大增123%

389
00:17:04,650 --> 00:17:06,980
但是不仅是残余期调整后

390
00:17:06,980 --> 00:17:08,720
每股收益一般四美分

391
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,759
远超预期的62美分

392
00:17:10,759 --> 00:17:14,289
本季度最大的亮点呢在于毛利率的修复

393
00:17:14,289 --> 00:17:16,849
调整后毛利率达到了10.1%

394
00:17:16,849 --> 00:17:19,049
不仅远高于上个季度的水平

395
00:17:19,049 --> 00:17:22,348
也大幅超过了分析师预估的6.75%

396
00:17:22,348 --> 00:17:26,588
市场的狂欢更多源于公司对未来利润的信心哈

397
00:17:26,588 --> 00:17:30,109
公司预计本季度营收将会在一百十亿

398
00:17:30,109 --> 00:17:31,970
到125亿美元之间

399
00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:36,039
调整后每股收益将在65~79美分之间

400
00:17:36,039 --> 00:17:37,039
都好于预期

401
00:17:37,039 --> 00:17:40,579
这个公司以往每次财报给出的嗯

402
00:17:40,579 --> 00:17:43,759
这个业绩与指引都是非常乐观的

403
00:17:43,759 --> 00:17:45,460
所以没什么太稀奇

404
00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:47,920
股价今天飙升24.5%

405
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:49,740
主要还是这个情绪是吧

406
00:17:49,740 --> 00:17:51,269
现在都是formal嘛

407
00:17:51,269 --> 00:17:53,890
嗯阿里巴巴股价今天跳空大涨

408
00:17:53,890 --> 00:17:56,059
消息面这个那个的其实都不用看哈

409
00:17:56,059 --> 00:17:57,539
主要就是中概股

410
00:17:57,539 --> 00:18:02,420
这边呢可能要开始炒作这个川普访华的事情了

411
00:18:02,420 --> 00:18:05,000
光通信巨头COHR

412
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:06,500
软银旗下的arm

413
00:18:06,500 --> 00:18:09,140
还有AI广告技术公司approving

414
00:18:09,140 --> 00:18:11,369
盘后呢都陆续交出了财报

415
00:18:11,369 --> 00:18:13,609
股价的反应都比较剧烈哈

416
00:18:13,609 --> 00:18:14,730
我们明天再细说

417
00:18:14,730 --> 00:18:16,339
那行我们明天见拜拜

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