【Graham Stephan】重回1929？崩盘前夕总会发生这些事

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最近怎么样

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你们好啊

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我是格雷厄姆

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市场正疯狂上涨

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所以我们必须坦诚讨论当前局势

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根据彼得·格兰迪的说法

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我们现在正处于抛物线式暴涨阶段

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何时达到顶峰

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没人能准确预测，这也是退出阶段而非入场时机

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记住

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宁可提前一年行动也不要错失一天

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显然这伴随着标普指数年同比上涨

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五百指数再涨30%

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席勒市盈率达到历史第二高位

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仅略逊于互联网泡沫时期

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若观察集中度峰值

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是的

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AI已接近21只科技股和日本泡沫时期的水平

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这就是我要客观分析当前状况的原因

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数据实际显示的情况

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为何风险最高

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自2021年以来

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如果这是我们需要警惕的

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甚至看到这张图表时我都震惊了

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相当可怕

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总之

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我厌倦了精心剪辑的视频

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我想坦诚讨论我找到的数据含义

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所以

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如果你喜欢轻松的风格

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点赞订阅

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这对频道帮助很大

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如果你不喜欢这些视频

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留言反馈

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我会尽力回复所有评论

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非常感谢

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另外衷心

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感谢Incogni赞助此视频

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更多内容稍后说明

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让我们聊聊这个神秘的股市泡沫

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客观来看人们确实担忧

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嗯

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说实话

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股市完全不合逻辑

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毫无道理

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我们正身处中东冲突未解之际

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油价每日飙升

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生活成本失控上涨

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而标普500却持续攀升

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我可能有点言过其实

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但看到很多人在比较今天的美国

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与美国近百年来发生的事情

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回溯到1929年

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大萧条时期

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事实上你知道有多可怕

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我看到很多人在这么做

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所以我们也要这么做

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只是为了证明一个观点

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这是1920年代的图表

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这是过去三十年的图表

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将它们合并起来

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爆炸式确认我们已进入大泡沫的最终阶段

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最终一切都会走向

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或者想想日本

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他们的全面泡沫演变为历史上最严重的金融危机

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现在认真说，对于不了解的人

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从1970到1989年股市年均增长超过两

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百分之二

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不断有文章说我们正完全复制相同路径

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持续指数级增长

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但更新为今日版本

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标普500指数几乎就在这里

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持续追踪

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完美对应日本案例

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他们的泡沫源于低利率政策

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大量廉价资金涌入经济

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让人们更愿意投资股市

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导致股价进一步上涨

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进而推高土地价值

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让更多人能抵押土地资金再投市场

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导致土地价值进一步飙升

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允许人们继续加大投资

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因为他们借入更多资金

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这种状态持续近二十年

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而人们认为

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哦

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并非如此

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正如我们所知

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1989年

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市场暴跌50%

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由于劳动力萎缩、政府开支增加和税收上升

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经济近四十年未完全复苏

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或想想互联网泡沫

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当时科技股暴跌约78%

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但如今我们又回到相同市盈率水平

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我们远超历史常态

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然后科技股暴跌约78%

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但今天我们又回到相同的市盈率比率

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我们已远超历史正常水平

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我们不应该自寻烦恼

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今天发生的事情简直疯了

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比如巴菲特指标已偏离历史趋势两个标准差

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拉里·佩奇宁愿破产也不愿在AI竞赛中落败

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别忘了这种循环特性

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每个公司似乎都投资了其他所有大公司

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更不用说

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前十大股票现在占标普500指数的40%

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超过互联网泡沫时期的峰值

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那么问题来了

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今天我们是否处于泡沫中

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这是否是伟大熔升的开端

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价格只会持续上涨

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或者这一切都是无稽之谈

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当我们看着周围人都变得超级富有时

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要回答这个问题，我们先做魔鬼代言人

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先探讨为何这可能是个泡沫

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有人认为如今股票相对于利润更昂贵

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相对于其盈利能力而言

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例如

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标普500市盈率预测目前超过28倍

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比过去100年平均17倍高出三分之二

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意味着公司要么大幅增收

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要么股价必须下跌

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这与日本低生育率的情况相似

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自50年代以来

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适婚成年人生育率急剧下降

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同时社会福利支出开始大幅增加

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这意味着缴纳者减少

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却要为更庞大的系统买单

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负担最终转嫁给现役纳税人

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嗯

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政府开支远超实际承受能力

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因此必须增税

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这对整体经济有害

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本质上说利率必须保持低位，债务增速需快于经济

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仅能防止经济停滞

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第三点

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正如兰斯·罗伯茨所列

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有机储蓄正在减少

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检查老龄化人口领取福利

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检查高债务经济

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检查青年失业率

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没错

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依赖生产力提升来弥补就业减少

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没错

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本质上这个论点认为经济被虚假支撑

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基本面不支撑当前估值

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最终一切必须回归均值

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这意味着股市必然下跌

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就是否处于泡沫状态而言

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这就是你需要知道的全部信息

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这就是实际数据的真实情况

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以及你可以今天采取的准备措施

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无论发生什么

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你都会想听这个

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不过在深入之前

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大多数人并未完全理解这一点

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随着越来越多的金融历史资金转向线上

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你的资产配置也面临类似风险

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你的投资组合

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银行账户和个人信息都相互关联

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这些信息正在被持续收集

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第三方暗中收购并转售

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数据经纪商

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以及可能针对你的目标人群

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这就是我们赞助商incogni的重要性所在

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因为他们不会让这些信息暴露在外任人获取

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他们会帮你提前移除这些数据

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或者通过incogni代你联系数据经纪商

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要求删除你的个人信息

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并处理他们的异议

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那些数据经纪商可能有更好的方案

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但incogni也

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通过重复删除请求确保信息不流入市场

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你只需注册一个账户

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授权他们代表你处理

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然后静待他们全程更新进展

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如果你曾搜索自己发现信息被泄露

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incogni的无限计划允许提交自定义链接删除

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使用他们的自定义移除功能

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你只需复制网站链接

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将数据发送至incogni

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他们的团队会帮你下架

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最终你可以提交任意数量的自定义链接

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你可能花费数十年积累财富

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但一次泄露就可能被他人利用

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如果你希望删除个人信息

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访问incogni.com/slash graham

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结账时使用代码gram享额外60折

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年度计划

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链接也在下方描述中

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30天无风险试用

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任何人都可免费尝试

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体验后再申请全额退款

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若不满意同样可退款

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链接下方附有代码graham

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非常感谢现在

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我们回到视频继续

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关于股市的情况

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我们现在正在看到的

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如果这是需要担忧的事情

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这就是价格可能继续大幅上涨的原因

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我们必须承认即使如此

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与历史相比股票仍然昂贵

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这些公司我们必须承认

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赚取了比互联网泡沫时期更多利润

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互联网泡沫时期

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尽管其中更大比例的公司

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构成标普指数

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五百家小型公司开始迎头赶上

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理论上应该

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从理论上讲

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将降低波动性并增强这波行情的持续性

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再说市场行情上涨

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价格下跌并非仅仅因为过高

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通常存在未预见的风险

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或出现引发抛售潮的事件

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截至当前我们的2022年牛市行情就在图表这里

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距离之前的一些崩盘事件还有数年时间

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同样的情况适用于2001年的盈利

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当时公司利润并不丰厚

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但如今它们赚取和支出大量资金

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例如

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《时代》杂志最近刊登文章

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除了人们认为特朗普会在中期选举前选择股市

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主要为字母表公司

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亚马逊

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苹果

229
00:08:33,909 --> 00:08:35,490
Meta微软

230
00:08:35,490 --> 00:08:36,919
英伟达和特斯拉

231
00:08:36,919 --> 00:08:39,980
真没想到我还能记住这些都在表现优异

232
00:08:39,980 --> 00:08:41,659
这些公司确实令人印象深刻

233
00:08:41,659 --> 00:08:46,779
它们增强了美国在全球经济中保持主导地位的信心

234
00:08:46,779 --> 00:08:50,889
甚至富达也确认目前盈利表现极佳

235
00:08:50,889 --> 00:08:52,548
现金流超过收入

236
00:08:52,548 --> 00:08:54,908
净利润超过五年平均水平

237
00:08:54,908 --> 00:08:56,489
当我们观察未来盈利预期

238
00:08:56,489 --> 00:08:58,669
仍低于2001年峰值

239
00:08:58,669 --> 00:09:00,190
顺便提一下2001年

240
00:09:00,190 --> 00:09:02,450
这是历史对比图

241
00:09:02,450 --> 00:09:05,220
当前市盈率峰值为65倍

242
00:09:05,220 --> 00:09:07,039
而当时仅为28倍

243
00:09:07,039 --> 00:09:07,259
人们

244
00:09:07,259 --> 00:09:08,580
不妨扪心自问

245
00:09:08,580 --> 00:09:09,559
有什么替代选择

246
00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:10,870
如果不进行投资

247
00:09:10,870 --> 00:09:13,389
过去五十年持有现金

248
00:09:13,389 --> 00:09:17,509
平均回报率仅为0.9%

249
00:09:17,509 --> 00:09:21,789
过去二十年里，你的资产价值每年会损失1.8个百分点

250
00:09:21,789 --> 00:09:26,370
这意味着你的选择要么是现金确定性亏损，要么是可能的市场风险

251
00:09:26,370 --> 00:09:29,830
如今股市短期风险极高但上涨空间近乎无限

252
00:09:29,830 --> 00:09:32,100
显然这并不意味着我们不在泡沫中

253
00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:33,059
但富达公司表示

254
00:09:33,059 --> 00:09:37,159
他们列出了一些需要所有人密切关注的预警信号

255
00:09:37,159 --> 00:09:39,049
如果你想知道具体是什么的话

256
00:09:39,049 --> 00:09:39,409
你可以去查看

257
00:09:39,409 --> 00:09:41,169
一些公司正在烧钱

258
00:09:41,169 --> 00:09:42,730
支出远超收入

259
00:09:42,730 --> 00:09:45,450
二是企业间相互持股

260
00:09:45,450 --> 00:09:46,269
达到

261
00:09:46,269 --> 00:09:47,029
如果一家倒下

262
00:09:47,029 --> 00:09:48,100
全部都会崩盘

263
00:09:48,100 --> 00:09:52,190
三是AI领域债务增速远超利润

264
00:09:52,190 --> 00:09:54,750
触及能源使用极限

265
00:09:54,750 --> 00:09:56,600
这将直接限制增长

266
00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:57,100
第五点

267
00:09:57,100 --> 00:09:58,500
如果借贷成本上升

268
00:09:58,500 --> 00:09:59,919
利润将大幅下降

269
00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:00,399
事实上

270
00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:02,490
富达认为由于AI技术

271
00:10:02,490 --> 00:10:07,730
股市将继续上涨，因为中小企业将采用它

272
00:10:07,730 --> 00:10:09,090
专业服务公司

273
00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:10,230
工业企业

274
00:10:10,230 --> 00:10:12,029
医疗和公用事业公司

275
00:10:12,029 --> 00:10:13,590
它们都将实现规模化发展

276
00:10:13,590 --> 00:10:14,029
是的

277
00:10:14,029 --> 00:10:15,570
当你观察CAPE比率时

278
00:10:15,570 --> 00:10:16,269
它处于高位

279
00:10:16,269 --> 00:10:16,730
好吧

280
00:10:16,730 --> 00:10:18,049
这无法回避

281
00:10:18,049 --> 00:10:18,610
但本

282
00:10:18,610 --> 00:10:19,960
卡尔森认为

283
00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:25,279
因为经济模式已发生改变

284
00:10:25,279 --> 00:10:30,090
更好的指标是观察互联网普及后的30年

285
00:10:30,090 --> 00:10:31,070
正如你所见

286
00:10:31,070 --> 00:10:32,809
平均值远未达到

287
00:10:32,809 --> 00:10:34,649
不像人们渲染的那么夸张

288
00:10:34,649 --> 00:10:36,580
利润率也在改善

289
00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:38,620
这表明股票估值偏高

290
00:10:38,620 --> 00:10:42,470
但它们盈利能力强终将回归合理价位

291
00:10:42,470 --> 00:10:43,549
至于盈利能力

292
00:10:43,549 --> 00:10:47,070
你也可以看这张图表认为即将崩盘

293
00:10:47,070 --> 00:10:50,159
或将其与30年估值指标对比

294
00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:50,779
嗯

295
00:10:50,779 --> 00:10:51,100
就是这样

296
00:10:51,100 --> 00:10:51,899
其实并不可怕

297
00:10:51,899 --> 00:10:52,480
因此

298
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,610
他随后补充说，收益表现异常强劲

299
00:10:55,610 --> 00:10:59,529
而股市真的擅长不考虑当下

300
00:10:59,529 --> 00:11:01,769
但真正未来会发生什么

301
00:11:01,769 --> 00:11:03,869
如果股市没有做到

302
00:11:03,869 --> 00:11:06,269
你认为它已经完全疯狂了

303
00:11:06,269 --> 00:11:07,509
它没有履行职责

304
00:11:07,509 --> 00:11:10,470
甚至有分析师表示，如果企业兑现收益

305
00:11:10,470 --> 00:11:13,720
预期和政治紧张局势略有稳定

306
00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,000
仍有合理路径让股市进一步上涨

307
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:17,620
所以是的

308
00:11:17,620 --> 00:11:21,100
如果你是1929年至1949年的投资者

309
00:11:21,100 --> 00:11:22,759
在二十年期间

310
00:11:22,759 --> 00:11:25,860
几乎毫无进展，只是下跌和横盘

311
00:11:25,860 --> 00:11:29,159
但即便如此，如果你在顶峰时投资

312
00:11:29,159 --> 00:11:30,690
然后不再继续投资

313
00:11:30,690 --> 00:11:35,169
仅靠股息仍能获利超过11%

314
00:11:35,169 --> 00:11:38,730
假设后续二十年不投入一分钱

315
00:11:38,730 --> 00:11:43,240
实际上很难不去在低点买入

316
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,220
还有一个值得讨论的论点

317
00:11:46,220 --> 00:11:50,080
那就是股市并未上涨

318
00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,419
美元现在正在贬值

319
00:11:52,419 --> 00:11:56,179
尽管这看起来是个有趣的理论，观察M2货币供应量

320
00:11:56,179 --> 00:11:57,460
与股市对比

321
00:11:57,460 --> 00:12:01,330
并得出结论认为股市涨幅不大纯粹

322
00:12:01,330 --> 00:12:03,070
因为我们印了太多钞票

323
00:12:03,070 --> 00:12:04,230
事实上

324
00:12:04,230 --> 00:12:07,870
纵观过去五十余年历史

325
00:12:07,870 --> 00:12:11,309
我们看到剧烈的上下波动

326
00:12:11,309 --> 00:12:12,649
事实上

327
00:12:12,649 --> 00:12:15,769
美元从2002年贬值至12

328
00:12:15,769 --> 00:12:18,429
随后在2010年代持续升值

329
00:12:18,429 --> 00:12:21,769
整个市场经历涨跌反复

330
00:12:21,769 --> 00:12:27,169
有效显示货币价值与股市价格无相关性

331
00:12:27,169 --> 00:12:29,909
货币增发与股市上涨无直接关联

332
00:12:29,909 --> 00:12:34,370
费雪投资公司也分析了这一现象追溯至1970年代

333
00:12:34,370 --> 00:12:36,370
当美元脱离金本位制时

334
00:12:36,370 --> 00:12:39,289
他们发现贸易加权美元指数与标普500回报的相关性仅为-0.15

335
00:12:39,289 --> 00:12:43,889
几乎等同于零

336
00:12:43,889 --> 00:12:46,250
此外他们发现全球股票76%时间上涨

337
00:12:46,250 --> 00:12:50,480
无论美元是升值还是贬值

338
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,019
这意味着即使大量印钞

339
00:12:53,019 --> 00:12:56,120
但其他因素如利率和投资者热情

340
00:12:56,120 --> 00:13:00,879
对股市影响远大于货币供应量

341
00:13:00,879 --> 00:13:05,320
因此在判断是否处于泡沫

342
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,279
关于是否存在泡沫

343
00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:08,100
现实情况是

344
00:13:08,100 --> 00:13:11,049
要重现日本的情况

345
00:13:11,049 --> 00:13:13,740
盈利必须完全停滞

346
00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,659
标普500需升至14000点以上

347
00:13:17,659 --> 00:13:19,500
才能达到同等水平

348
00:13:19,500 --> 00:13:20,899
基本上如果一切保持不变

349
00:13:20,899 --> 00:13:23,419
所有商品价格都会翻倍

350
00:13:23,419 --> 00:13:23,940
那确实如此

351
00:13:23,940 --> 00:13:25,460
我们可能陷入日本式的困境

352
00:13:25,460 --> 00:13:27,980
但所有东西都如此昂贵

353
00:13:27,980 --> 00:13:32,340
并且存在我们未预料到的突发情况

354
00:13:32,340 --> 00:13:35,809
目前市场可能暴跌30%

355
00:13:35,809 --> 00:13:41,029
看来股市可能继续上涨

356
00:13:41,029 --> 00:13:42,500
我直接说吧

357
00:13:42,500 --> 00:13:46,120
谈论泡沫意味着某种程度上

358
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,519
泡沫担忧可能已被部分消化

359
00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:48,940
说实话

360
00:13:48,940 --> 00:13:53,059
所有这些都在说明现在要谨慎

361
00:13:53,059 --> 00:13:54,820
确保有稳定收入

362
00:13:54,820 --> 00:13:57,120
确保充分分散投资

363
00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:02,870
确保能承受30-50%的崩盘

364
00:14:02,870 --> 00:14:04,049
如果发生这种情况

365
00:14:04,049 --> 00:14:06,409
只要继续坚持方向

366
00:14:06,409 --> 00:14:11,159
短期调整只是买入良机

367
00:14:11,159 --> 00:14:12,000
长期来看

368
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:13,639
至于我的应对措施

369
00:14:13,639 --> 00:14:15,200
我非常认同这句话

370
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,460
市场可能保持非理性

371
00:14:17,460 --> 00:14:19,259
比你能维持的时间更久

372
00:14:19,259 --> 00:14:22,419
即使你再聪明预测未来

373
00:14:22,419 --> 00:14:28,059
认为自己比整个经济更懂市场

374
00:14:28,059 --> 00:14:31,610
它会不断违背你的预期

375
00:14:31,610 --> 00:14:33,629
反而做完全相反的事

376
00:14:33,629 --> 00:14:38,089
看看1720年南海泡沫中的艾萨克·牛顿

377
00:14:38,089 --> 00:14:41,600
牛顿曾成功投资获利颇丰

378
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,820
他认为市场上涨不可持续

379
00:14:43,820 --> 00:14:45,860
直到价格持续飙升

380
00:14:45,860 --> 00:14:47,779
而朋友们都变得富有

381
00:14:47,779 --> 00:14:49,320
于是他最终说

382
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:50,240
也许我错了

383
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:51,649
我要重新买入

384
00:14:51,649 --> 00:14:53,950
他在顶部附近买入

385
00:14:53,950 --> 00:14:55,889
以为自己又成天才

386
00:14:55,889 --> 00:14:57,309
因为价格继续上涨

387
00:14:57,309 --> 00:14:59,250
直到最终崩盘

388
00:14:59,250 --> 00:15:00,990
他血本无归

389
00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:03,090
他在最低点卖出

390
00:15:03,090 --> 00:15:04,370
不要成为这样的人

391
00:15:04,370 --> 00:15:09,048
这就是我采用美国和国际投资策略的原因

392
00:15:09,048 --> 00:15:10,568
确保充分分散配置

393
00:15:10,568 --> 00:15:14,340
保留20%在国债中

394
00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:17,029
以防万一的安心基金

395
00:15:17,029 --> 00:15:18,649
我只是不断强调

396
00:15:18,649 --> 00:15:20,950
无论怎样现在已成笑柄

397
00:15:20,950 --> 00:15:21,549
人们就像

398
00:15:21,549 --> 00:15:22,169
哦，好吧

399
00:15:22,169 --> 00:15:24,149
猜猜格雷厄姆又要说什么了

400
00:15:24,149 --> 00:15:26,549
在市场中进行定投策略

401
00:15:26,549 --> 00:15:27,029
是的

402
00:15:27,029 --> 00:15:30,549
他只会一遍又一遍重复同样的话

403
00:15:30,870 --> 00:15:31,450
是的

404
00:15:31,450 --> 00:15:34,809
那些过去九年一直听从这个建议的人

405
00:15:34,809 --> 00:15:37,470
我制作的YouTube视频观众表现相当不错

406
00:15:37,470 --> 00:15:40,629
事实上我可以断言这些人表现更好

407
00:15:40,629 --> 00:15:46,188
盲目定投市场的人比完美择时的人更成功

408
00:15:46,188 --> 00:15:48,009
这可能也适用于你

409
00:15:48,009 --> 00:15:50,370
只要你点击点赞并订阅

410
00:15:50,370 --> 00:15:51,610
如果你还没做的话

411
00:15:51,610 --> 00:15:53,769
如果你想提前看到这类视频

412
00:15:53,769 --> 00:15:54,889
我会公开发布

413
00:15:54,889 --> 00:15:55,809
没有任何赞助

414
00:15:55,809 --> 00:15:59,049
也没有广告，每周还有额外内容

415
00:15:59,049 --> 00:16:04,720
这意味着每周至少额外制作一个视频

416
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,840
请加入频道会员，这会非常有帮助

417
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,360
我在那边发布了更多内容

418
00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,200
这些内容算法不太友好

419
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,960
我想制作更轻松的视频

420
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:15,659
不需要过度剪辑

421
00:16:15,659 --> 00:16:17,720
我不想在这里被算法限制

422
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,349
所以可以发布给会员避免算法影响

423
00:16:22,349 --> 00:16:26,309
如果你想获得所有额外视频和早期内容

424
00:16:26,309 --> 00:16:28,169
欢迎加入会员等级

425
00:16:28,169 --> 00:16:29,330
真心希望你喜欢

426
00:16:29,330 --> 00:16:30,070
非常感谢观看

427
00:16:30,070 --> 00:16:31,379
直到下次再见

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