【老李玩钱】美股形势依然不明朗！要卖股票了？！

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大家好

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我是老李

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最近咱这美股啊就像是雾里看花

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形势非常的不明朗

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上上下下波动呢不小啊

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比较的动荡

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每当这个时候呢

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咱有一些朋友就会问我说

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老李现在这个时候是不是应该啊卖股票了

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心里有点慌啊

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啊到底该不该这个卖股票

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或者该到底该怎么去操作啊

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老李赶紧出来给我们呃做一波啊

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这个分析跟建议

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那咱今天呢主要就针对这个问题啊

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来给出大家一起呃

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来给大家我的一些啊看法

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那咱说正事之前呢

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依照国际惯例

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还是先来跟大家量账户

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今天美股三大指数全部收红

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以传统股为主的道指啊

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跌的比较多

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下跌了1.6%

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纳指还好啊

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我的账户呢整体基本上没有太大的变动啊

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小跌了100美金左右

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当前的账户总资产呢还是在21万

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27万1000多

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卖股票这个话题呢

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在咱们这个频道也算是老生常谈

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那关于卖股票呢

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我的第一个原则啊

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还是不要根据预测市场去决定啊

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你是否该啊卖出股票啊

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就是说啊不要去time the market啊

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这个市场啊

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我以我在美股里面这十几年的经验

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我告诉大家是没有人能够预测的

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那巴菲特他老人家也跟咱们说过啊

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说never time the market啊

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time in the market is much more important than time in the market啊

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意思就是说你任何时候都不要去预测市场啊

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这个在市场里面待的时间是远远的

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要比你去预测市场要重要得多

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这个话题我为什么总把它拿出来说呢

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是因为咱们很多朋友啊

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其实是很沉浸于这种啊这种预测市场的

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这种给他带来的这种刺激

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这种这种惊喜

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就是咱有些朋友可能预测了一两次市场

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就预测对了

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他觉得哇我真厉害

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真牛批啊

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我这一预测预测对了

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我这个

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那接下来我就根据我这个预测市场来这样做

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那不是啊

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这个这这叫什么

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一直能获利吗

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其实啊这就是一个概率事件啊

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你如果去这个拉斯维加斯赌场赌博

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那你可能赌个几次

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你也能赚到钱

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你也能赌对

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但是呢你长期如果一直去预测市场的话

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它其实就是一个概率事件

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比如说你现在你预测十次

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可能有那么三四次是对的啊

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你可能觉得哦我我厉害了

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但是呢有可能那么五六次都是预测错误的

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比如说咱过往的一些例子

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在去年的啊

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34月份那场关税风暴的时候

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这3月底啊

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4月初的时候

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股市跌到了这个很低

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当时市场很恐慌

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咱很多朋友啊就在那个时候啊

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呃去预测市场

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觉得这个市场非常的恐慌

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还会继续下跌

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这市场还会跌的更低

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在那个时候呢就卖出了手里的这股票

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结果一卖啊

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没过几天市场就开始反弹了

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这手里的股票呢就再也接不回来了

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另外一个例子就是在啊

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这不是去年啊4月份开始反弹吗

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4月5月一直都在反弹

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6月的时候还在反弹

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咱们有些朋友呢又去预测市场啊

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觉得这这5月6月都反弹了

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那照理来说

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这反弹的这个幅度不小

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时间呢也不短了

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接下来呢可能会出现回调啊

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那我现在把它卖出去

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回调之后我再接回来

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这不岂不美哉

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高抛低吸嘛

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结果哈56月份有一波朋友又卖股票了

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卖了之后呢

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这股市就没有回调

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7月8月九月啊

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一直涨到10月份啊

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这朋友的股票呢又卖飞了

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已经没有办法接回来

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还有一个例子就是最近这段时间啊

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就这一周啊

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大家大家可以发现啊

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咱们这个美股市场

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其实他有时候啊是不按套路出牌的

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他不按照你的想法或者是正常的逻辑去去走

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比如说这一周啊出了一个这个啊呃战啊

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战火打响了

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就美伊冲突升级

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这开始打仗了

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结果呢这周末开始打仗

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结果这周一呢股市反而没跌

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股市反而是绿的啊

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就让咱们朋友们很很疑惑

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说这正常来说打仗了不是股市应该恐慌吗

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不应该下跌吗

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结果他到第二天才跌

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第二天跌的时候呢

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跌的很吓人啊

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当天早上开一开盘

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股市值就直接跳水

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咱很多朋友呢又恐慌了

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觉得哎呀这个市场终于反应过来了

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这个市场的对这个战争的这个啊情绪啊

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恐慌情绪终于出来了

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我现在得卖股票啊

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不然这市场还会继续下跌

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结果呢咱那天早上就周二的早上

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我我我所知道的很多朋友又卖了股票

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卖了股票之后呢

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当天股市就有所反弹

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然后第二天呢就是呃昨天周三的时候

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股市又进一步的反弹啊

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那这些股票这些朋友的这个手里的股票

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又迈在了这个最底部

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所以啊如果你在股市当中待的时间长了

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你就越来越会发现啊

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预测市场这件事是不靠谱的

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我们呢还是得听着呃巴菲特的老人家一句话

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就是never time the market

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就是不要去预测市场啊

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这就是我呃咱们关于卖股票这个事情

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我的呃我坚我所坚守的第一个原则就是啊

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不根据预测市场去决定自己的这个啊

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买股票或者是卖股票的这些操作

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那我们具体该根据什么原则呢

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我卖股票啊

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我所根据的一个就是原则

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我一直啊坚持的这种策略跟原则呢

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就是根据我的这个啊

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股票整个投资组合的一个仓位啊

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我经常说的仓位管理跟这个仓位控制

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因为像我刚才说的这个市场

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你是啊摸不准的

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你是猜不透的

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你也是没有办法预测的

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但是呢你你整个投资组合

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你的这个足球队里面

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你的这些队员

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包括这些队员

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他们的胖瘦情况

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也就是我说的这每一只股票的仓位的大小

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你是完全掌握在你的手中呢

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因为你是主教练呢

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你是这一个整个足球队的一个主教练对吧

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哪支队员哪一个股票仓位大了

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或者你觉得未来对他的这个潜力

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发展潜力并不是特别看好的时候啊

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我就可以给他做一做减仓

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给他稍微减减肥啊

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那一只股票你觉得仓位还没有啊

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把这这这名队员可能未来更有潜力

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或者这只股票仓位现在还非常的小

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你觉得重点培养

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那我呢就可以对这支股票呢啊

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找机会再给它进一步的啊加仓

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把这个仓把他仓位呢进一步给封满啊

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这就是咱们从这个仓位管理跟仓位控制

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这个角度来看呢

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这是完全你能看得明白

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而且完全是掌握在你自己的手中的啊

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额另外一个

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我跟大家经常说的这个足球队的理念啊

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就咱们各个位置都有对吧啊

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有中有前锋

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中场后卫类型的这种股票都要去搭配

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还有一个关键的问题呢

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就是整个股票仓位跟现金仓位的一个啊

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大致的一个比例

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那么就是咱们所说的现金仓位

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就是你整个足球队里面的守门员啊

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守门员这个位置呢他不能给你的球队进球

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但是他能保证你球队呢少失球

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就守门员这个是你的最后一道防线

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就像是我觉得这个比喻很形象啊

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因为现今这个位置

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就是咱们整个投资组合理的最后一道防线

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他没有办法给你啊赚取盈利

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但是呢他能保证你不赔钱

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对不对

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现今这个位置就是这样一个作用

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所以在现阶段呢我一直跟大家强调啊

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一定要在你的这个咱们呃

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保持这个股票持仓的同时

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一定要留有足够的现金

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那么现在呢我我希望咱有些朋友

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现在还是满仓的

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甚至说是还是加着杠杆在那在那冲的

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这些朋友呢

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一定要咱们先去杠杆

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把杠杆先去了之后啊

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如果你还是满仓

221
00:08:05,019 --> 00:08:08,040
那么呢找一些股票减一减仓

222
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,879
囤出更多的这个现金子弹

223
00:08:10,879 --> 00:08:12,560
以备不时之需

224
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:13,319
说到这儿

225
00:08:13,319 --> 00:08:14,360
咱很多朋友要问了

226
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:14,800
说老李

227
00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,300
那你说这个现金那到底应该留多少的现金呢

228
00:08:18,300 --> 00:08:20,720
啊你不说这个一个比例我也没有概念

229
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,149
我也不知道我现金是留的多还是留的少

230
00:08:23,149 --> 00:08:27,490
还是依照我一呃呃这个咱们有一个

231
00:08:27,490 --> 00:08:29,389
我这其实有一个三七法则啊

232
00:08:29,389 --> 00:08:31,350
大家看我说现金的时候

233
00:08:31,350 --> 00:08:32,190
经常说啊

234
00:08:32,190 --> 00:08:34,749
咱们至少留有账户里啊

235
00:08:34,749 --> 00:08:37,769
30%以上的这个现金仓位啊

236
00:08:37,769 --> 00:08:42,139
其实大家看有时候呃这也不不一定是玄学啊

237
00:08:42,139 --> 00:08:43,980
比如我在跟大家看这些大科技

238
00:08:43,980 --> 00:08:46,019
科技巨头的这个前瞻市盈率的时候

239
00:08:46,019 --> 00:08:48,700
咱们也是以30这条线为一个基准

240
00:08:48,700 --> 00:08:52,909
我说30以下说明他的估值呢啊算是OK啊

241
00:08:52,909 --> 00:08:55,029
30以上呢就估值就偏高了

242
00:08:55,029 --> 00:08:56,309
不是什么玄学啊

243
00:08:56,309 --> 00:08:59,279
其实有时候我就是按照这样一个30%吧

244
00:08:59,279 --> 00:09:01,360
就30%以上的现金

245
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,740
我认为就是啊在现阶段呢

246
00:09:03,740 --> 00:09:06,700
就算是啊相对来说这个安全边际啊

247
00:09:06,700 --> 00:09:08,179
就算是可以了

248
00:09:08,179 --> 00:09:09,259
我这个账户当中

249
00:09:09,259 --> 00:09:12,980
目前一共是有5万7000多的现金

250
00:09:12,980 --> 00:09:16,120
那么对应我整个账户的总资产呢

251
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,620
咱们就按照27万来算的话

252
00:09:18,620 --> 00:09:20,059
这个现金比例啊

253
00:09:20,059 --> 00:09:24,279
我大致算了一下是21%啊

254
00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:26,519
这样一个现金的比例

255
00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:30,320
那我现在这个现金比例啊其实是不达标的

256
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:31,320
刚才我跟大家说啊

257
00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,320
现在最好是留百分之是30以上的现金啊

258
00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,919
啊我现在这个现金的仓位呢是21%

259
00:09:36,919 --> 00:09:40,158
这主要是因为啊啊我在之前的时候

260
00:09:40,158 --> 00:09:41,278
其实在去年年底

261
00:09:41,278 --> 00:09:42,639
今年年初的时候

262
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:44,950
去年年底我啊减仓了一些股票

263
00:09:44,950 --> 00:09:46,470
然后卖出了一些股票

264
00:09:46,470 --> 00:09:49,850
把这个现金呢我记得当时是囤到了7万多啊

265
00:09:49,850 --> 00:09:51,230
7万多的一个呃

266
00:09:51,230 --> 00:09:54,039
呃这个现金的这个数量

267
00:09:54,039 --> 00:09:55,440
然后大致的比例呢

268
00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,799
当时就是按30%这样一个比例去啊

269
00:09:58,799 --> 00:10:00,220
去囤这个现金的

270
00:10:00,220 --> 00:10:02,320
但是呢呃最近大家也知道啊

271
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,039
我在啊最近这段时间啊买入

272
00:10:05,039 --> 00:10:07,879
并且是啊加仓了不少的股票

273
00:10:07,879 --> 00:10:09,480
咱花了一些子弹啊

274
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:10,480
射出去一些子弹

275
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,110
所以这个现金的啊比例呢又啊进一步下降了

276
00:10:14,110 --> 00:10:15,309
这样一个现金比例啊

277
00:10:15,309 --> 00:10:17,009
在我整个账户中啊

278
00:10:17,009 --> 00:10:20,210
这个安全边际呢啊还是啊不太够

279
00:10:20,210 --> 00:10:22,690
那如果是现在咱们有些朋友啊

280
00:10:22,690 --> 00:10:26,250
你算一算你的整个呃这个账户里的现金的仓位

281
00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:27,879
如果还比我这个还要低

282
00:10:27,879 --> 00:10:29,600
是20%以下的话

283
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,828
那就更需要去注意了

284
00:10:31,828 --> 00:10:33,149
咱们最近的股市啊

285
00:10:33,149 --> 00:10:37,629
基本上就是一直在上上下下的这样去走啊

286
00:10:37,629 --> 00:10:38,788
波动不小啊

287
00:10:38,788 --> 00:10:40,440
非常的动荡

288
00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,820
形势呢依旧是不明朗

289
00:10:42,820 --> 00:10:46,299
咱们呢也看不出一个明确的方向啊

290
00:10:46,299 --> 00:10:48,019
啊我在上一期视频里呢

291
00:10:48,019 --> 00:10:51,899
跟大家对咱接下来这个3月份整个股市啊

292
00:10:51,899 --> 00:10:56,710
啊这个走势做了一波简单的啊推演跟展望啊

293
00:10:56,710 --> 00:10:58,230
我觉得整个3月份啊

294
00:10:58,230 --> 00:11:00,309
可能会继续贯穿这种啊

295
00:11:00,309 --> 00:11:04,509
上上下下就是横盘震荡的这样一种行情啊

296
00:11:04,509 --> 00:11:07,970
这也是咱们所谓的一个这个啊猴氏啊

297
00:11:07,970 --> 00:11:11,299
就是像猴子一样上窜下跳的啊

298
00:11:11,299 --> 00:11:13,090
他也跳也跳不高啊

299
00:11:13,090 --> 00:11:15,389
这个这个往下呃蹦呢

300
00:11:15,389 --> 00:11:17,250
他也呃也也蹦不下去

301
00:11:17,250 --> 00:11:19,029
就是整体来看啊

302
00:11:19,029 --> 00:11:21,549
在呃如果是标普百指数的话

303
00:11:21,549 --> 00:11:25,309
在6700点这样一个支撑位和前高啊

304
00:11:25,309 --> 00:11:27,669
7000点的这样一个压力位之间啊

305
00:11:27,669 --> 00:11:31,860
可能会继续啊这样子上上下下横盘震荡的啊

306
00:11:31,860 --> 00:11:33,700
走个一段时间

307
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:34,980
那有些朋友会说了

308
00:11:34,980 --> 00:11:38,120
在这种猴市横盘震荡的行情之下

309
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,980
如果去做啊这种波段啊

310
00:11:40,980 --> 00:11:43,009
就是啊低买高卖

311
00:11:43,009 --> 00:11:44,389
高抛低吸的话

312
00:11:44,389 --> 00:11:45,769
那不是很爽吗

313
00:11:45,769 --> 00:11:47,070
啊这个前提啊

314
00:11:47,070 --> 00:11:47,570
朋友啊

315
00:11:47,570 --> 00:11:50,570
这个啊有些朋友你可以去试一下啊

316
00:11:50,570 --> 00:11:52,509
如果啊你做得好

317
00:11:52,509 --> 00:11:54,210
就是踩点踩得准的话

318
00:11:54,210 --> 00:11:56,578
你可能真的能实现高抛低吸

319
00:11:56,578 --> 00:11:59,458
但是呢如果你啊做的一般啊

320
00:11:59,458 --> 00:12:02,409
那么大概率呢可能会被华尔街啊

321
00:12:02,409 --> 00:12:06,279
来回上下来回的去啊进行收割

322
00:12:06,279 --> 00:12:09,080
有时候真的不知道该如何操作的时候啊

323
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,279
咱们可以选择不操作啊

324
00:12:11,279 --> 00:12:13,480
有真的咱这个股市当中啊

325
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,009
有时候你啊操作的越多就越容易犯错

326
00:12:17,009 --> 00:12:19,840
这这就是我经常所说的这个骚操作

327
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,320
在当前股市行情不明朗的情况下呢

328
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,440
咱们一定要减少骚操作啊

329
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,799
不知道怎么去操作的时候啊

330
00:12:26,799 --> 00:12:29,379
我们呢可以选择按兵不动啊

331
00:12:29,379 --> 00:12:31,789
咱们呢就啊不操作就好

332
00:12:31,789 --> 00:12:33,190
具体到我个人呢

333
00:12:33,190 --> 00:12:36,149
我的一些呃这个操作上的计划呢

334
00:12:36,149 --> 00:12:40,558
就是在呃6700点到7000点的这个啊

335
00:12:40,558 --> 00:12:41,298
范围内啊

336
00:12:41,298 --> 00:12:44,708
就让股市啊就这么去一直横盘震荡吧

337
00:12:44,708 --> 00:12:46,869
我就啊选择按兵不动

338
00:12:46,869 --> 00:12:49,548
我基本上呢就不会有太大的动作了

339
00:12:49,548 --> 00:12:51,559
就在这个区间范围内啊

340
00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:53,500
我就不会有太大的动作了

341
00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:56,279
如果说股市呃这个指数啊

342
00:12:56,279 --> 00:12:57,159
就是标普百指数

343
00:12:57,159 --> 00:12:58,679
咱们还是参考标普百指数

344
00:12:58,679 --> 00:12:59,820
如果一旦向下

345
00:12:59,820 --> 00:13:03,279
跌破了6700的这个支撑位的话啊

346
00:13:03,279 --> 00:13:04,720
跌到了6000啊

347
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,720
下方还有一个比较强有力的支撑位

348
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,678
就是我一直跟大家说的6540啊

349
00:13:09,678 --> 00:13:12,339
这个强有力的下方的一条支撑位

350
00:13:12,339 --> 00:13:15,318
那么如果标普500指数跌破了6700

351
00:13:15,318 --> 00:13:16,239
跌到了6000

352
00:13:16,239 --> 00:13:17,759
540~6700

353
00:13:17,759 --> 00:13:19,889
这个啊范围区间内呢

354
00:13:19,889 --> 00:13:22,470
我会选择一些这个股票啊

355
00:13:22,470 --> 00:13:24,480
继续去啊进行加仓

356
00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,840
那如果呢是向上波动啊

357
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,139
就是标普500指数向上啊

358
00:13:29,139 --> 00:13:31,318
又去试探前高的这个压力位

359
00:13:31,318 --> 00:13:33,178
就是提前点的这个压力的时候

360
00:13:33,178 --> 00:13:35,990
那么当标普500指数达到啊

361
00:13:35,990 --> 00:13:38,370
呃7000点附近的位置的时候

362
00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:43,759
我可能就会啊在选择我账户中的一些啊股票呢

363
00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:46,799
去进行啊减仓或者是卖出啊

364
00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:47,960
因为像我刚才说的啊

365
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,179
我现在账户里呢是只有大概21%的

366
00:13:51,179 --> 00:13:52,059
这个现金比例

367
00:13:52,059 --> 00:13:54,659
我觉得这个安全边际啊还不太够啊

368
00:13:54,659 --> 00:13:57,120
我我还是想把我这个呃

369
00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,960
把现金呢给慢慢的再增加一些啊

370
00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:03,159
尽量的囤到啊30%这样一个水平

371
00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:05,159
那行今儿咱就聊到这吧

372
00:14:05,159 --> 00:14:07,539
这期视频呢我没怎么准备啊

373
00:14:07,539 --> 00:14:10,429
基本就是想到哪儿说到哪儿啊

374
00:14:10,429 --> 00:14:13,659
大家呢就当我是一本正经的胡说八道

375
00:14:13,659 --> 00:14:15,840
那既然都听到这儿了啊

376
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:16,840
依照惯例

377
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,240
还是求各位粉丝一键三连点赞

378
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:21,919
评论加转发

379
00:14:21,919 --> 00:14:23,919
没有订阅老李这个频道的朋友呢

380
00:14:23,919 --> 00:14:26,710
也抓紧时间点上一首订阅

381
00:14:26,710 --> 00:14:28,230
像有些朋友问我说

382
00:14:28,230 --> 00:14:31,649
老李你平常在啊研究股票的时候

383
00:14:31,649 --> 00:14:34,269
都用哪一些金融网站呢

384
00:14:34,269 --> 00:14:37,929
我最常用的就是这个seeking alpha功能很强大

385
00:14:40,309 --> 00:14:41,179
金融网站

386
00:14:41,179 --> 00:14:44,120
比如我在视频当中给大家做七大科技巨头

387
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:45,799
各项指标的对比

388
00:14:45,799 --> 00:14:48,909
就是在这个seeking alpha上面实现的

389
00:14:48,909 --> 00:14:52,049
七大科技巨头走势以及回报率的对比

390
00:14:52,049 --> 00:14:53,049
一目了然

391
00:14:53,049 --> 00:14:56,120
还可以对比他们整体的估值情况啊

392
00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:00,370
增长情况以及盈利能力的情况等等等等

393
00:15:00,370 --> 00:15:04,289
我本人是从好多年前就开始订阅seeking alpha

394
00:15:04,289 --> 00:15:06,110
一直都是他们的会员

395
00:15:06,110 --> 00:15:08,350
seeking alpha还有一个非常强大的功能

396
00:15:08,350 --> 00:15:09,909
那就是alpha pigs

397
00:15:09,909 --> 00:15:10,549
在这里呢

398
00:15:10,549 --> 00:15:15,389
他们会帮你挑选并且推荐一些非常优质的股票

399
00:15:15,389 --> 00:15:17,009
他们挑选出的这些股票

400
00:15:17,009 --> 00:15:21,980
整个投资组合的表现呢是远超美股大盘指数的

401
00:15:21,980 --> 00:15:24,240
比如在去年的10月15号

402
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:29,399
alpha picks就挑选并且推荐了mu美光科技这支股票

403
00:15:29,399 --> 00:15:30,039
截至目前

404
00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:33,399
这支股票的回报率已经达到了100%

405
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:34,889
一心动不如行动

406
00:15:34,889 --> 00:15:38,049
现在通过视频下方我的专属邀请链接

407
00:15:38,049 --> 00:15:40,610
注册可享受七天免费试用

408
00:15:40,610 --> 00:15:43,860
以及老李粉丝专属的优惠活动

409
00:15:43,860 --> 00:15:45,940
朋友们千万不要错过

410
00:15:45,940 --> 00:15:47,120
感谢大家的收看

411
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,440
让我们下期再见

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