长牛省心股今天大跌，是否抄底良机？【2026-05-21】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月21号星期四

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标普指数今天上涨12.75点

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涨幅0.17%

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大盘又出现连续两天小阳线了

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趋势正在好转

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如今的美股大盘指数就像火上浇油

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PU为棚子不但不会灭火

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还帮助燃烧

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在轻度调整之后

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标普随时有再创新高的可能

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨了22.74点

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微涨万分之九

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最近几天判断大盘震荡

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目前确实还是震荡

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有可能横盘形成小平台

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也有可能很快又突破

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创新高

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如果没有什么重大的系统性利空消息

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我觉得突然暴跌的概率比较低

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今天市场上有一个未经证实的消息

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说

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美伊协议的最终草案可能已经达成

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比较权威的媒体则是这么说的

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伊朗政府正在审议美国提出的最新提议

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巴基斯坦陆军参谋长在星期四拜访德黑兰

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去当说客

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川普总统表示愿意再等几天的时间

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看看伊朗对最新提议是怎么回应的

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尽管局势不是非常明朗

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但是更大规模的全面战争风险基本上也没有了

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中东也就是扼守海峡

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让油价大涨

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这件事比较让人头痛啊

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所以最坏的情况也不过如此

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股市对此也就没有紧张和避险的情绪

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提供总额20亿美元的拨款

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量子计算概念今天又热门起来了

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RGTI涨了27%

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QBTS涨了30%

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关键这是从长期调整之后突然放量启动

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值得注意一下

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美国政府这一次的举动

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说明对量子计算较为重视

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这20亿是这么分配的

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其中10亿是给ibm global foundaries拿了3.75亿

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剩下的像QBTSRGTI等

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平均分不到一个亿

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钱

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不是送的

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是要入股的

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这相当于国有资金

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分散持有量子计算公司的部分股权

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拿最大头的是IBM

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IBM的CEO前两个月接受采访时就说了一句大实话

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他说现在的量子计算行业

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就是10年前的AI芯片产业

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IBM拿了十个亿

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但股价只是上涨了12%

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不如那几个小弟的

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这其实在资本市场是很常见的

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在同样利好的情况下

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盘子大的股票上涨的少

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盘子小的上涨的多

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小盘股风险大

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但是风一来就很容易上天

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我不喜欢这种豪赌啊

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当然风险承担能力高的人

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愿赌服输是可以做一做

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刚刚启动的RGTI之类的小盘股

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如果要让我推荐量子计算概念

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我觉得IBM可以看一看

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IBM是一家老牌企业

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目前是量子计算领域的领先企业

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2026年

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公司内部定调自己是量子优势的公司

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我们之前有讲过

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量子计算这种技术如果取得真正的突破

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会以天文数字级别的程度提高计算能力

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现在的计算机都是基于零和一的二进制在算啊

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算量子比特可以既是零又是一

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它的算力就是按指数来算的二的100倍

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这是200

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而二的100次方就是个天文数字了

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量子比特的指数级计算能力

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未来如果商用

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可以颠覆现在的科技

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但是量子不稳定

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瞬间就退缩成普通的比特

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错误率非常高

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IBM今年主打夜鹰架构芯片

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因为改进了纠错技术

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已经能够稳定完成非常复杂的量子计算任务

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连续运算能力比以前强

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很多公司还提出了以量子为中心的超级计算机

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就是以后搞研发任务丢过去

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底层的智能系统自动分工

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需要算大数据的交给普通CPU

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需要跑大模型的交给显卡GPU

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而最难搞的传统计算机

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算到死机的那部分

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核心模型就直接交给量子处理器

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英伟达的黄仁勋去年曾经看清了量子计算

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后来自己改口说

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量子计算是未来的趋势

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实现起来也不用二三十年那么久

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AI还能帮量子计算进行进化

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因为老黄发现量子计算不是用来替代它的

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反而能够互相配合着赚钱

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老黄提出

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未来的超级计算机

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将是显卡加上量子处理器的合作

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IBM并不是一家量子计算的初创公司

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它在1911年就成立了

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有100多年的历史

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以前IBM是卖电脑的

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后来又是个卖服务器的公司

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但在最新的财报中

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IBM的业务分为三个板块及软件咨询和基础设施

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软件业务赚钱

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但是软件板块今年流年不利

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没有人喜欢炒软件股

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今天IBM放量大涨

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主要就是政府入股加量子概念

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政府入股这件事呢有点像是英特尔

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去年政府入股10%

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然后大涨

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后来川普还后悔说

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买英特尔买的太少了

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量子计算还在烧钱

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研究阶段时间要多久也不确定

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大公司比较能活得久

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活到取得成功的那一天

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昨天公布的英伟达财报炸裂

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但股价跌了1.9%

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至此七个科技巨头财报都已经公布了

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大的财报

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暴雷风险也就不多了

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英伟达财报是非常好

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营收不但超预期

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还大超800亿

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只取817亿

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前进指引还能冲上900多亿

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增长曲线仍然非常陡峭

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这么好的业绩

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股价不大涨

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反而轻度下跌

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原因是什么呢

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股票涨多了就会跌啊

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只能这么说

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英伟达的动态市盈率是33倍

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静态市盈率是45倍

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不算超级昂贵

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但也不算便宜啦

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估值高低是一回事

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股价相对高低是另一回事

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毕竟股价涨了许多

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市值5万亿以上

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涨多了

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主力资金在财报利好的掩护下

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卖出一些获利了结

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股价也就下跌了

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公司是非常厉害的公司

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股票也是值得长期持有

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但买入时如果太贵

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持有起来收益不够高

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通常像英伟达这样的股票

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在大盘连续大跌之后

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勇于抄底

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可以获得超额收益

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接下来SPACEX将IPO上市

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近2万亿的超级大盘股

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一上来就是美股前十的科技巨头

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而且还火速纳入指数

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得到被动基金的无脑配置

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这么一家巨无霸上市

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对全球股市的资金分流是显然的

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那么SPACEX的IPO将创下全球IPO融资规模记录

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space一上市

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他的身价就超过一个T

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SPACEX在2025年的营业收入是190亿

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2026年将达到290亿

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毛利率高达50%

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星链业务是主要的收入来源

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火箭发射业务频率高

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可回收成本低

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合并的XAR业务是当前最火的

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人工智能大模型

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上市可炒的热点比较多

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因此是上半年资本市场的大事

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另一家人工智能公司ANTHROPIC

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也有可能在今年上市

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今天有一个消息似乎利好微软

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ANTHROPIC计划

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未来租用微软自己研发的MAYA200AI芯片

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这款芯片是微软在今年开始部署的

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第二代AI芯片

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专门主打推理优化

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是一款定制芯片

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MAYA200只是微软内部用于CPA和OpenAI

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某些底层服务的芯片

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ANTHORPIA有可能是第一个外部客户

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微软正在追赶大模型

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也自研芯片

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越看越像是去年的谷歌

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正是市场出现了分歧和怀疑

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才会有便宜一点的股价

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目前微软的估值处于历史相对低位

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股价走势接近超长期支撑线

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是一支值得重视

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有一定抄底机会的个股

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但我之前说微软有投资价值

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说了好多次啦

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说多啦有点过度风险还是有的

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微软花巨资的资本支出

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如果没有赚回来钱

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那烧了钱就打水漂了

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AI淘金热

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金子没有挖到

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卖铲子的半导体把钱给赚走了

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所以市场质疑微软的资本开支

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担心亏得底儿掉

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微软与OpenAI从蜜月期度过

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有分手趋势

228
00:09:29,629 --> 00:09:32,590
OpenAI有微软的云业务大订单

229
00:09:32,590 --> 00:09:35,480
因此业务存在流失的挑战

230
00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,899
微软的AI模型与谷歌GBT等龙头相比

231
00:09:39,899 --> 00:09:42,200
还是有差距的风险

232
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,049
有机会也有啊

233
00:09:44,049 --> 00:09:45,929
我的压注是看涨

234
00:09:45,929 --> 00:09:50,068
昨天有两位观众要求点评一下INTU

235
00:09:50,068 --> 00:09:54,110
今天这支股因为公布财报而暴跌20%

236
00:09:54,110 --> 00:09:58,450
intuit公布的一季度营业收入是85.6亿

237
00:09:58,450 --> 00:09:59,769
超过预期

238
00:09:59,769 --> 00:10:02,169
每股收益是12.8美元

239
00:10:02,169 --> 00:10:03,450
超过预期

240
00:10:03,450 --> 00:10:06,769
公司预计二季度的营收还将同比增长

241
00:10:06,769 --> 00:10:08,509
11%到12%

242
00:10:08,509 --> 00:10:11,090
每股收益3.56到3.62

243
00:10:11,090 --> 00:10:12,750
也都超预期

244
00:10:12,750 --> 00:10:15,509
公司宣布回购股票80亿

245
00:10:15,509 --> 00:10:17,149
裁员17%

246
00:10:17,149 --> 00:10:21,690
预计与裁员相关的费用将达到3亿到3.4亿

247
00:10:21,690 --> 00:10:25,929
这么个三项超预期回购又裁员的财报

248
00:10:25,929 --> 00:10:28,328
股价竟然大跌20%

249
00:10:28,328 --> 00:10:29,568
原因呢

250
00:10:29,568 --> 00:10:32,808
这是一只软件股物SAAS板块

251
00:10:32,808 --> 00:10:34,940
这个板块雷特别多

252
00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:37,899
INTU的报税软件和会计软件

253
00:10:37,899 --> 00:10:40,899
订阅收入担忧被AI替代以后

254
00:10:40,899 --> 00:10:43,200
不知道哪一天出来一款AI工具

255
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,240
只要把发票扔给AI

256
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,169
财务报表就自动生成自动报税了啊

257
00:10:49,169 --> 00:10:51,830
就像之前的法律服务AI工具一样

258
00:10:51,830 --> 00:10:54,509
把法律软件给打趴下了

259
00:10:54,509 --> 00:10:56,850
软件股暴雷有点密集

260
00:10:56,850 --> 00:10:59,090
市场所担心的软件必死

261
00:10:59,090 --> 00:11:00,549
有可能证实

262
00:11:00,549 --> 00:11:02,149
也有可能证伪

263
00:11:04,049 --> 00:11:05,490
反弹有机会

264
00:11:05,490 --> 00:11:07,818
长期的前景不太看好

265
00:11:07,818 --> 00:11:10,578
浓眉大眼的零售股龙头沃尔玛

266
00:11:12,479 --> 00:11:16,139
那这是不是抄底机会能够买吗

267
00:11:16,139 --> 00:11:19,940
沃尔玛一季度营业收入1778亿美元

268
00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:21,889
同比增长7.3%

269
00:11:21,889 --> 00:11:24,570
调整后每股收益66美分

270
00:11:24,570 --> 00:11:26,110
营收超预期

271
00:11:26,110 --> 00:11:28,120
EPS符合预期

272
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,080
业绩指引较为谨慎

273
00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:35,840
公司对二季度的业绩指引低于预期

274
00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,809
预计调整后每股收益72美分到74美分

275
00:11:39,809 --> 00:11:41,769
低于预期的75美分

276
00:11:42,769 --> 00:11:45,639
全年营业收入预期也是低于预期的

277
00:11:45,639 --> 00:11:49,360
消费者出现两极分化的K型经济形态

278
00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:53,250
低收入群体更加依赖沃尔玛的低价策略

279
00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:57,809
线上业务销量增长则是主要靠高收入群体带动

280
00:11:57,809 --> 00:11:59,850
电商业务同比大涨

281
00:11:59,850 --> 00:12:03,379
美国区的电商销售额大增26%

282
00:12:03,379 --> 00:12:08,440
但是本周的TGT就是target财报上调了指引

283
00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,740
而沃尔玛的业绩前景却不及预期

284
00:12:11,740 --> 00:12:13,000
同样的零售

285
00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:14,690
不同的市场判断

286
00:12:14,690 --> 00:12:18,789
原因是沃尔玛更多的吸收了通胀的影响

287
00:12:18,789 --> 00:12:21,809
更多的运用天天低价促销的策略

288
00:12:21,809 --> 00:12:23,850
也就是赚的少了

289
00:12:23,850 --> 00:12:28,339
另外沃尔玛40多倍的市盈率也是太贵了

290
00:12:28,339 --> 00:12:30,198
零售是防御板块

291
00:12:30,198 --> 00:12:32,239
经济下行周期也不减少

292
00:12:32,239 --> 00:12:33,460
吃穿用度

293
00:12:33,460 --> 00:12:35,539
沃尔玛是零售板块龙头

294
00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:37,580
长期股价稳稳的上涨

295
00:12:37,580 --> 00:12:38,779
熊市也跌

296
00:12:38,779 --> 00:12:40,379
但是跌的比较少

297
00:12:40,379 --> 00:12:42,200
牛市又涨得稳

298
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,730
所以穿越了牛熊周期

299
00:12:44,730 --> 00:12:46,509
如果股价暴跌

300
00:12:46,509 --> 00:12:48,509
是抄底好公司的机会

301
00:12:48,509 --> 00:12:50,370
如果要做技术分析

302
00:12:50,370 --> 00:12:54,049
我认为最佳的价格是年限上面的110

303
00:12:54,049 --> 00:12:55,970
至于会不会跌到那里啊

304
00:12:55,970 --> 00:12:57,460
那就不知道啦

305
00:12:57,460 --> 00:12:59,720
最后贴一个账户截图

306
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,870
今天我的公开账户截图的净值是21.6万

307
00:13:03,870 --> 00:13:06,029
高通今天涨了5%以上

308
00:13:06,029 --> 00:13:08,490
听说我要卖出就涨一波

309
00:13:08,490 --> 00:13:10,859
搞得我又舍不得卖了

310
00:13:11,058 --> 00:13:13,099
昨天卖出一半的REDDIT

311
00:13:13,099 --> 00:13:14,970
今天涨了2.2%

312
00:13:14,970 --> 00:13:18,649
不过ruddy这种提问问答的美国版贴吧

313
00:13:18,649 --> 00:13:20,339
未来还真说不准

314
00:13:20,339 --> 00:13:23,278
现在问问题直接问AI啦

315
00:13:23,278 --> 00:13:25,999
上论坛找半天答案就太慢了

316
00:13:25,999 --> 00:13:28,639
circle今天反弹了3%

317
00:13:28,639 --> 00:13:32,259
这50股我希望尽可能拿个几年再看看

318
00:13:32,259 --> 00:13:34,250
读对了没有好

319
00:13:34,250 --> 00:13:35,789
今天的节目就分享到这里

320
00:13:35,789 --> 00:13:36,730
感谢大家收看

321
00:13:36,730 --> 00:13:38,009
我们下期节目再见

322
00:13:38,009 --> 00:13:38,820
拜拜

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