【NaNa说美股】20260226抄不完的底😭！

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大家好

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欢迎回来

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娜娜说

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美股今天是2月26号

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周四

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英伟达呢交出了满分成绩单

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股价却跳水坡类

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标普与纳指酸酸下挫

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纳指盘中一度跌超2%

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只有道指微幅收涨

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今天盘面上呈现的情况是

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大资金又在剧烈切换

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抛售AI硬件

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抄底软件

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原本大家想靠英伟达来推动大盘突破的

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结果呢

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英伟达再次上演财报之后

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利好出尽的走势

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股价日内一度跌超5.5%

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达到半年线后才止跌

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华尔街给出的解释还是那一套车轱辘话

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什么市场对潜在AI泡沫担忧啦

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AI狂热支出不能持续啦等等话术

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还有机构解释说是做市商为了防止市场过热

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如果英伟达的股价在财报后直接跳空暴涨的话

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会触发极其严重的期权行权压力呃

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导致市场失控

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所以呢为了规避期权波动风险

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做市商就打压股价

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但这些都是给下跌势后找借口

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嘎空行情咱们也不是没见识过啊

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为什么之前可以嘎空

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那现在就不能嘎空了呢

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还不是因为AI叙事已经炒了3年

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到了利好边际效应递减的临界点了哈

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AI支出依然很狂热

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但市场现在更想看到的

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使科技巨头的AI变现能力提升了多少

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自有现金流的改善

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而不只是看他们的支出了

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从博弈逻辑来看

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如果英伟达业绩与指引

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股价却无法形成持续性的突破性的暴涨

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那利好出尽即是利空

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如果没有后续更大的利益好

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那剩下就只有获利盘的涌出了

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标普500指数的反弹势头受阻

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虽然今天收盘暂时守住了6900点

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给人留下一点念想

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但是一个月期标准化看跌期权偏度呢

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已经达到了一年多的最高水平

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投资者正不惜支付高溢价

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买入极短期的战术套期保值工具

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以防范指数向下破位的可能性

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这张图表显示出

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标普500指数与CCTA持仓比例的相关性呃

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白线是标普500指数

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绿线呢是CTA仓位

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在大多数时间

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CT仓位与指数走势是高度正相关的

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当CCTA增加仓位的时候

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市场通常走高

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但CCTA减仓的时候呢

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市场往往面临调整

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这条右轨代表CTA基金在市场中的头寸强度

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数值呢

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通常在负的0.05到正的0.05之间

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正值代表净多头

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负值代表净空头

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这个2025年4月关税解放日期间

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CCTA的仓位比例跌破了负的0.02

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就说明是呃非常的这个悲观呃

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深度空头仓位

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这通常是极度悲观后的反转信号

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所以呢随后这个标普百指数就触底反弹了

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2025年10月

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CCTA仓位达到了0.05的峰值

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就仓位拉满了极度的看多

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然后就掉头了嘛

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接下来的四个月呃

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就与指数走势出现了明显的背离

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标普500指数呢进入了为期数月的

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高位横盘震荡

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目前为止尚未出现大幅下跌

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而CCTA仓位却已经剧烈下滑了

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这意味着追涨动力耗尽

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趋势跟踪资金啊正在大规模的撤出市场

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对于一些逆向投资者来说

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比如华企策略师

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他们就说哎呀

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这个多头仓位拥挤度的释放和悲观情绪

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恰恰预示着行情即将反转上升

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如果中东局势平息

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风险溢价从市场中挤出

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场外资金将被迫追涨买回

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推动空头挤压

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这个观点呢

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其实我也认同啊

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认同一半吧

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但是目前的核心矛盾在于

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这个价格与仓位的背离

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多头仓位拥挤度释放虽然是好事情

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但前提是价格也跟随着同步暴跌

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才能够完成价格出清

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可是现在CCTA已经先跑了

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指数还在高位横着

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风险被时间稀释哈

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而不是被价格清算

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市场还没有真正的完成出清

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就是说还不安全

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CCTA的操作呢是具有非线性特征的

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从0.05降到零

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这只是平仓离场而已哈

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只是减此行为虽然是卖压

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但还算是温和

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可是从零降到负值呢

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那就是开始反手做空了

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那个时候这个力度就会很猛烈

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这几个月

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指数之所以还能在CCTA卖压之下保持着横盘

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并不是因为买盘的强大

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而是卖盘只是在有节制地进行抛售而已

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但是这个英伟达的最新财报

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都没能够推动指数嗯进行突破

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那说明主流趋势资金认为嗯

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7000点以上的风险收益比已经完全失衡了

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那就要注意这个下方6800点的关键支撑位

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还能否守住哈

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一旦失守

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ct的模型指令就会从多头离场切换到空头开仓

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这种力量会与恐慌盘合力

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就是与那个VIX飙升合力

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就会导致市场出现加速下跌

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不会使阴跌哈

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就直接一个很突然的

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爆发性的那种大幅度的下跌

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其实现在的情况就算嗯华尔街反其道而行

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指数冲散7000点嗯

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也不一定能够站稳呃

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若是先回踩6700点

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对多空都好

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回到6700点

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可以让CCTA的指标重新回到超卖区间

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吸引新的一波量化资金进场

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那样的话再冲上去

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大家才会更有信心

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但是今天英伟达例子告诉我们

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哎呀数据和基本面都不重要

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华尔街想怎么玩就怎么玩

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IGV今天呢延续了反弹势头

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资金一边抛售英伟达

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博通等芯片股

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一边呢抄底软件

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在英伟达这个AI硬件领头羊跌倒之后

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资金选择从高位恐高区流向低位超跌区

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像CIM虽然指引频频

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2026全年营收增长指引才只有8%

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但是呢500亿美元的股票回购计划

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依然吸引了一些买盘的流入

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目前的市场就像一场接力赛嘛

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芯片股也跑不动了

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就把接力棒交给了软件股

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但是仅靠软件股的超跌反弹

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这个补涨是很难将标普500推向7000点以上的

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IGB的反弹

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就更像是死猫跳或者是阶段性的调仓哈

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并非是新一轮牛市的开始

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这更像是华尔街在利用软件股的这个超跌反弹

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技术性修复

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来掩盖他们从芯片股当中大规模撤资

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不过呢也不是所有软件股都不看好

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比如微软

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甲骨文这些龙头

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它们的价格目前已经处于长期风险回报区了

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是可以寻找机会建仓的

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但是这个底部震荡区域呢不知道还会维持多久

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大盘都能横四个月

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因为它都横了快一年了哈

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所以呢要做好打持久战的心理准备

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微软的基本面更强

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反抽50日均线的时间呢呃可能会更快

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而甲骨文这一边它的趋势确认阶段

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可能要等到2026年6月份前后

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那个时候公司进入盈利验证阶段

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大家可以知道他的巨额AI合同

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是否转化为收入嗯

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资本开支是否开始产生回报

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转型是否成功

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就到底是不是成为AI基础设施赢家了

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虽然资本市场现在看似很不待见这个甲骨文的

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把它作为呃对冲AI热潮的工具

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但我个人还是对甲骨文的前景比较看好

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作为川普的好much吉

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又是小圆帽集团的自己人

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Larry ellison

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这么豪读AI数据中心

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肯定是有所依仗

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或者是看到了一些我们普通人看不到的嗯

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发展哈

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就像那些科技巨头们哥哥攒那么多钱

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疯狂的去这个搞AI数据中心是吧

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他自己个人就持有约40%的

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甲骨文流通股份

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家族财富与这个公司是深度绑定的

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而他本人在2025年

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股票和今年迄今股价大跌的时候

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都没有出现大规模公开市场减持

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这个与之前AMD苏妈

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还有英伟达黄仁勋

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在自家股票高位的时候减持情况是完全不同的

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就连马斯克的弟弟对吧

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都好几次在高危的时候套现跑路呢

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净卖出了大约2738万美元

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大部分是薪酬兑现

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属于低强度的常规的一个坚持啊行为

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隔壁CWIFT家的高管们

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00:09:59,749 --> 00:10:02,990
一周减持的数额都超过这个水平了

218
00:10:02,990 --> 00:10:06,149
所以呢在甲骨文大跌过程中

219
00:10:06,149 --> 00:10:07,950
公司创始人呃

220
00:10:07,950 --> 00:10:11,570
高管都这么坚定的不卖股票

221
00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:15,169
应该是对这家公司未来前景很有信心的表现

222
00:10:15,169 --> 00:10:15,809
是吧

223
00:10:15,809 --> 00:10:20,568
嗯这股价135~140美元区间呢

224
00:10:20,568 --> 00:10:23,928
呃接近AI行情启动前的平台

225
00:10:23,928 --> 00:10:28,519
也是多家机构们最低估值模型的价位区间

226
00:10:28,519 --> 00:10:32,019
长期资金开始的这个区间分批布局

227
00:10:32,019 --> 00:10:36,960
而更下方的120~100美元呢是恐慌底部

228
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,178
就只有在AI融资恶化

229
00:10:40,178 --> 00:10:42,739
就没银行愿意借钱给加工文了

230
00:10:42,739 --> 00:10:44,970
或者利率再次善行呃

231
00:10:44,970 --> 00:10:48,309
又或者OpenAI那边出现了一些问题

232
00:10:48,309 --> 00:10:50,169
需求放缓等情况的时候

233
00:10:50,169 --> 00:10:52,960
才可能会测试这一个底部

234
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,440
要是小于100啊

235
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,529
那就是公司基本面出大问题了

236
00:10:57,529 --> 00:10:59,909
COVIVER盘后呢公布了财报

237
00:10:59,909 --> 00:11:02,610
Q4营收15.7亿美元

238
00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:04,769
同比增长了一百十%

239
00:11:04,769 --> 00:11:07,950
略高于市场预期的15.5亿美元

240
00:11:07,950 --> 00:11:11,429
净亏损从上个季度的11.1亿美元

241
00:11:11,429 --> 00:11:13,769
扩大到了4.52亿美元

242
00:11:13,769 --> 00:11:15,889
每股亏损89美分

243
00:11:15,889 --> 00:11:17,980
差于市场预期的嗯

244
00:11:17,980 --> 00:11:19,759
亏损68美分

245
00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:23,340
虽然积压订单高达660亿美元

246
00:11:23,340 --> 00:11:25,129
同比翻了四倍啊

247
00:11:25,129 --> 00:11:26,610
呃这是很强了

248
00:11:26,610 --> 00:11:28,730
可是呢烧钱速度太快

249
00:11:28,730 --> 00:11:30,730
他大哥因为打那么强的财报

250
00:11:32,370 --> 00:11:34,389
结果他交出这样一份财报

251
00:11:34,389 --> 00:11:36,149
盘后也只跌这么一点儿

252
00:11:36,149 --> 00:11:37,649
连双位数都不到呢

253
00:11:37,649 --> 00:11:40,230
对于这支股票来说已经算是很克制了哈

254
00:11:40,230 --> 00:11:43,659
所以要看明天盘中会不会扩大这个跌幅

255
00:11:43,659 --> 00:11:46,059
戴尔科技股价几乎大涨了

256
00:11:46,059 --> 00:11:47,820
很多人的眼镜碎了一地

257
00:11:47,820 --> 00:11:51,259
因为大家其实都不怎么看好AI服务器生意

258
00:11:51,259 --> 00:11:52,860
嫌弃利润太低了

259
00:11:52,860 --> 00:11:57,078
尤其是在近期存储的成本大幅攀升的背景之下

260
00:11:57,078 --> 00:12:02,639
嗯之前哈期权定价呈现就显著的看跌倾向

261
00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:06,519
有大量的对冲和做空头寸压住股价

262
00:12:06,519 --> 00:12:07,599
季后下跌

263
00:12:07,599 --> 00:12:10,038
最近它的股价走势也挺疲软的

264
00:12:10,038 --> 00:12:11,879
一直在年线下方震荡

265
00:12:11,879 --> 00:12:15,440
结果诶财报出来要远好于华尔街预期

266
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,099
也就给了投资者大大的惊喜

267
00:12:18,099 --> 00:12:20,938
季度营收333.8亿美元

268
00:12:20,938 --> 00:12:22,438
同比增长39%

269
00:12:22,438 --> 00:12:24,139
环比增长24%

270
00:12:24,139 --> 00:12:27,059
超过预期的三百十六.700000000美元

271
00:12:27,059 --> 00:12:29,289
每股收益3.89美元

272
00:12:29,289 --> 00:12:31,029
同比增长45%

273
00:12:31,029 --> 00:12:33,110
环比增长50%啊

274
00:12:33,110 --> 00:12:35,789
同样高于预期的3.53美元

275
00:12:35,789 --> 00:12:38,629
公司给出的Q1指引呢也非常的乐观

276
00:12:38,629 --> 00:12:40,220
大幅超过预期

277
00:12:40,220 --> 00:12:42,360
于是这么一份好财报

278
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,879
加上这个大量空头集中平仓

279
00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:48,399
就触发了股价盘后的大涨

280
00:12:48,399 --> 00:12:50,360
量子计算股今天普涨

281
00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,279
IONQ季后呢

282
00:12:52,279 --> 00:12:54,629
股价大涨21.7%

283
00:12:54,629 --> 00:12:58,690
公司Q4营收同比增长了429%

284
00:12:58,690 --> 00:13:01,460
到6190万美元

285
00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:04,299
gap净利润7.54亿美元

286
00:13:04,299 --> 00:13:08,519
主要得益于认股权证的非现金市值评估

287
00:13:08,519 --> 00:13:09,750
9.5亿美元

288
00:13:09,750 --> 00:13:10,980
换句话说

289
00:13:10,980 --> 00:13:13,740
这所谓的净利润主要是来自呃

290
00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:16,700
认股权证的账面估值变动哈

291
00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:19,710
而并非公司的经营赚钱

292
00:13:19,710 --> 00:13:22,789
这所谓的净利润就是一分钱也拿不到的

293
00:13:22,789 --> 00:13:23,490
实际上

294
00:13:23,490 --> 00:13:27,559
2025年公司全年人净亏损5.1亿美元

295
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:30,960
核心业务依旧处于烧钱的阶段

296
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,279
不过今天股价仍然跳空大涨

297
00:13:33,279 --> 00:13:34,919
毕竟营收翻了好几倍

298
00:13:34,919 --> 00:13:36,120
那也是喜事嘛

299
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,089
股价此前又经历了一波大幅下跌

300
00:13:39,089 --> 00:13:42,740
所以空头回补平仓也放大了股价的涨幅

301
00:13:42,740 --> 00:13:44,879
存储概念今天走高

302
00:13:44,879 --> 00:13:47,289
SMDK反弹了3%

303
00:13:47,289 --> 00:13:49,870
公司与SK海力士合作

304
00:13:49,870 --> 00:13:54,929
启动高频宽快闪记忆体全球标准化进程

305
00:13:54,929 --> 00:13:58,529
双方在OCP框架下成立工作组计划

306
00:13:58,529 --> 00:14:02,750
2027年商业化市场规模有望在长期内呃

307
00:14:02,750 --> 00:14:08,059
超越HBM成为AI存储架构的关键支撑

308
00:14:08,059 --> 00:14:12,019
反正这支股票如今就好像一个奢侈品商店里

309
00:14:12,019 --> 00:14:15,000
橱窗摆着的一件昂贵的衣裙哈

310
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,860
我每天这个下班都要经过看他一眼

311
00:14:18,860 --> 00:14:20,828
但就是下不了手

312
00:14:20,828 --> 00:14:22,649
英特尔股价呢下跌

313
00:14:22,649 --> 00:14:26,639
黄仁勋在昨天因为打最新业绩电话会上表是

314
00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:31,220
英伟达已经为CPU重回中心舞台做好了准备

315
00:14:31,220 --> 00:14:36,419
并且将在竞争中超越英特尔AAMD等对手

316
00:14:36,419 --> 00:14:39,519
英特尔的股票全靠消息面炒作哈

317
00:14:39,519 --> 00:14:42,788
跟这个合作拉到那个投资基本面的成绩

318
00:14:42,788 --> 00:14:44,139
还有待验证

319
00:14:47,659 --> 00:14:51,940
第三采集业绩及Q4指引都远差于预期

320
00:14:51,940 --> 00:14:54,320
公司计划才远近1/4

321
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,009
哎呀早点破产退市得了哈

322
00:14:57,009 --> 00:15:01,220
本来就是硬蹭AI热度的一支题材概念股

323
00:15:01,539 --> 00:15:03,460
布洛克呢发布了强劲的财报

324
00:15:03,460 --> 00:15:06,539
并且宣布全面的结构性改革计划

325
00:15:06,539 --> 00:15:11,659
将团队从超过1万名员工削减到低于6000人

326
00:15:11,659 --> 00:15:13,440
盘后呢股价暴涨

327
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,820
看股价日K今天放量上涨

328
00:15:15,820 --> 00:15:19,159
已经有一些资金提前埋伏了啊

329
00:15:19,159 --> 00:15:21,539
看来这股票也要降本增效

330
00:15:21,539 --> 00:15:23,389
成为裁员概念股了哈

331
00:15:23,389 --> 00:15:25,730
行今天我们就简单聊到这里

332
00:15:25,730 --> 00:15:27,320
那明天见拜拜

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