BV1RqReB4EH8 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,620 大家好 2 00:00:00,620 --> 00:00:02,680 欢迎来到本期解读 3 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,480 今天咱们要聊的是一个绝对重磅 4 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,979 而且极具戏剧性的话题 5 00:00:07,979 --> 00:00:12,499 中国A股市场是不是终于彻底醒过来了 6 00:00:12,499 --> 00:00:15,789 抛开过去几年那种压抑的悲观情绪 7 00:00:15,789 --> 00:00:18,190 今天我们将直接切入瑞云 8 00:00:18,190 --> 00:00:19,149 最新出炉的 9 00:00:19,149 --> 00:00:22,480 2026年一季度A股业绩回顾报告 10 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:23,899 当我们拨开表象 11 00:00:23,899 --> 00:00:27,120 深入到这些上市公司的核心财务数据时 12 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,800 你会发现一个全新的充满爆发力的叙事 13 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,859 其实已经悄然展开了 14 00:00:32,859 --> 00:00:34,700 大家都指望过去几年 15 00:00:34,700 --> 00:00:37,299 投资者们在充满挑战下行周期里 16 00:00:37,299 --> 00:00:39,128 可以说是熬了太久 17 00:00:39,128 --> 00:00:42,209 在各种宏观压力和情绪的剧烈波动下 18 00:00:42,209 --> 00:00:45,009 很多人的耐心早就被消磨得差不多了 19 00:00:45,009 --> 00:00:48,270 甚至开始怀疑咱们心心念念的真正富庶 20 00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:49,729 到底还会不会来 21 00:00:49,729 --> 00:00:52,429 所以今天我们要直击的核心问题 22 00:00:52,429 --> 00:00:55,920 也是现在市场上所有人都在死死盯着的悬念 23 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,259 经历了这么漫长的底部震荡 24 00:00:58,259 --> 00:01:01,340 A股到底迎来绝地反击了吗 25 00:01:01,340 --> 00:01:03,320 答案是非常响亮的 26 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:04,019 两个字 27 00:01:04,019 --> 00:01:05,010 是的 28 00:01:05,010 --> 00:01:06,989 而支撑这个结论的底气 29 00:01:06,989 --> 00:01:09,390 来自于一个分量极重的数字 30 00:01:09,390 --> 00:01:11,430 正的11.8帕 31 00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:12,829 根据瑞银的统计 32 00:01:12,829 --> 00:01:16,010 在2026年第一季度剔除掉金融股之后 33 00:01:16,010 --> 00:01:19,379 A股整体盈利同比大幅增长了11.8 34 00:01:19,379 --> 00:01:22,620 要知道咱们回看2025年全年 35 00:01:22,620 --> 00:01:25,879 那个增长率才仅仅是微弱的0.8帕 36 00:01:25,879 --> 00:01:28,680 从0.8帕直接飙到11.8帕 37 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,040 这跨度简直了 38 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,939 这绝对不是什么短暂的统计学噪音 39 00:01:32,939 --> 00:01:34,939 而是意味着市场盈利能力 40 00:01:34,939 --> 00:01:37,909 出现了极其强劲的实质性回归 41 00:01:37,909 --> 00:01:39,129 更有意思的是 42 00:01:39,129 --> 00:01:41,329 你看看眼前这些业绩曲线 43 00:01:41,329 --> 00:01:43,569 在视觉上的冲击力有多强 44 00:01:43,569 --> 00:01:46,730 无论是整体A股还是剔除金融股之后 45 00:01:46,730 --> 00:01:50,019 盈利增长在经历了前两年的低迷期后 46 00:01:50,019 --> 00:01:53,969 硬生生的砸出了一个极其锐利的V型反转 47 00:01:53,969 --> 00:01:55,370 数字是不会骗人的 48 00:01:55,370 --> 00:01:57,290 这种全方位的向上突破 49 00:01:57,290 --> 00:01:59,310 非常明确地传递出一个信号 50 00:01:59,310 --> 00:02:01,890 市场正在果断地甩掉过去的包袱 51 00:02:01,890 --> 00:02:04,450 这个不仅仅是情绪上的短暂回暖 52 00:02:04,450 --> 00:02:06,750 这是实打实的基本面重组 53 00:02:06,750 --> 00:02:08,030 那么你可能会问 54 00:02:08,030 --> 00:02:12,150 到底是谁在幕后推动了这场不可思议的逆转呢 55 00:02:12,150 --> 00:02:15,270 其实这背后有一个至关重要的推手 56 00:02:15,270 --> 00:02:18,919 那就是咱们最近经常听到的反内卷行动 57 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,419 这是一项极其精准的宏观举措 58 00:02:21,419 --> 00:02:23,419 目的就是规范市场竞争 59 00:02:23,419 --> 00:02:25,199 把长期承压的PPI 60 00:02:25,199 --> 00:02:29,490 也就是工业生产者出厂价格指数给稳步拉回来 61 00:02:29,490 --> 00:02:31,370 之前那种惨烈的价格战 62 00:02:31,370 --> 00:02:33,629 真的是让很多企业苦不堪言 63 00:02:33,629 --> 00:02:35,069 而现在这个行动 64 00:02:35,069 --> 00:02:37,610 精准地给中上游行业喘息的空间 65 00:02:37,610 --> 00:02:40,000 让他们重新拥有了盈利的能力 66 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:41,979 光看营收还不够 67 00:02:41,979 --> 00:02:44,050 咱们接着往下看利润率 68 00:02:44,050 --> 00:02:46,629 非金融A股的季度毛利率走势 69 00:02:46,629 --> 00:02:49,500 把这个复数逻辑体现的淋漓尽致 70 00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:51,300 你看最新的一季度数据 71 00:02:51,300 --> 00:02:53,960 这条线终于掉头向上攀升了 72 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:55,300 这意味着什么呢 73 00:02:55,300 --> 00:02:56,270 也就是说 74 00:02:56,270 --> 00:02:58,430 企业现在卖出同样的东西 75 00:02:58,430 --> 00:03:01,069 留在自己手里的毛利润变多了 76 00:03:01,069 --> 00:03:04,360 他们曾经丢失的定价权正在慢慢回归 77 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,800 这彻底扭转了自2020年以来 78 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,879 内容让人极度难受的利润率下滑趋势 79 00:03:09,879 --> 00:03:12,319 是真正的质量性复苏 80 00:03:12,319 --> 00:03:13,800 顺着这个逻辑 81 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:15,280 毛利率的改善 82 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:19,039 有没有变成实实在在落袋为安的净利润呢 83 00:03:19,039 --> 00:03:24,590 完全有净利润率的复缩曲线印证了同一个故事 84 00:03:24,590 --> 00:03:26,569 毛利的健康回升 85 00:03:26,569 --> 00:03:30,419 已经非常顺畅的传导到了最终的净利润上 86 00:03:30,419 --> 00:03:33,979 这两个核心利润率指标同步触底反弹 87 00:03:33,979 --> 00:03:36,889 提供了一个无可辩驳的铁证 88 00:03:36,889 --> 00:03:38,430 总需求在回暖 89 00:03:38,430 --> 00:03:43,050 企业的核心赚钱能力也确实在变强好了 90 00:03:43,050 --> 00:03:44,650 最关键的一点来了 91 00:03:44,650 --> 00:03:46,909 当企业开始真正赚到钱 92 00:03:46,909 --> 00:03:48,930 利润率又在往上走的时候 93 00:03:48,930 --> 00:03:50,379 他们下一步会干嘛 94 00:03:50,379 --> 00:03:53,479 没错花钱投资数据显示 95 00:03:53,479 --> 00:03:55,259 非金融企业的资本支出 96 00:03:55,259 --> 00:03:57,639 同比加速增长了3.4% 97 00:03:57,639 --> 00:03:59,280 在经历了那么长时间的 98 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,819 勒紧裤腰带和谨慎观望之后 99 00:04:01,819 --> 00:04:03,960 企业终于觉得有底气了 100 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,909 愿意再次打开钱包去投资未来 101 00:04:06,909 --> 00:04:08,210 瑞平的数据指出 102 00:04:08,210 --> 00:04:11,530 这波投资信心的回归主要是靠交通运输 103 00:04:11,530 --> 00:04:12,469 国防军工 104 00:04:12,469 --> 00:04:15,150 还有科技行业在前面带头冲锋 105 00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:17,709 不过呢咱们也得清醒的看到 106 00:04:17,709 --> 00:04:18,689 这场复苏 107 00:04:22,519 --> 00:04:25,788 现在的A股市场简直就是一出双成绩 108 00:04:25,788 --> 00:04:26,509 一方面 109 00:04:26,509 --> 00:04:29,168 科技板块化身为绝对的重装主力 110 00:04:29,168 --> 00:04:32,529 正在全力以赴地拉着整个大盘向上突破 111 00:04:32,529 --> 00:04:36,189 但另一边呢传统的消费板块却明显没跟上节奏 112 00:04:36,189 --> 00:04:37,480 显得有些拖后腿 113 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:38,339 也就是说 114 00:04:38,339 --> 00:04:41,689 经济的各个引擎目前并没有同步点火 115 00:04:41,689 --> 00:04:44,329 如果我们把各行业的成绩单摊开来看 116 00:04:44,329 --> 00:04:47,449 这种两极分化简直让人吃惊 117 00:04:47,449 --> 00:04:50,209 计算机板块就像坐上了火箭一样 118 00:04:50,209 --> 00:04:53,949 一季度盈利竟然直接暴涨了100% 119 00:04:53,949 --> 00:04:55,000 24.5 120 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:56,319 太疯狂了 121 00:04:56,319 --> 00:04:57,480 但反观另一边 122 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,720 曾经风光无限的汽车板块 123 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,689 盈利反而收缩了22.3% 124 00:05:02,689 --> 00:05:04,290 资金和盈利的增长 125 00:05:04,290 --> 00:05:07,470 现在高度集中在极少数的特定赛道里 126 00:05:07,470 --> 00:05:11,079 这就是咱们投资者当下必须面对的硬核现实 127 00:05:11,079 --> 00:05:13,920 那么科技股凭什么这么牛呢 128 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:15,420 其实一点都不意外 129 00:05:15,420 --> 00:05:18,850 这背后有两股极其庞大的力量在支撑 130 00:05:18,850 --> 00:05:20,209 一个是全球 131 00:05:20,209 --> 00:05:22,930 人工智能技术正在发生爆炸式的发展 132 00:05:22,930 --> 00:05:25,610 另一个就是咱们国内对于科技 133 00:05:25,610 --> 00:05:27,819 自立自强的强烈诉求 134 00:05:27,819 --> 00:05:29,459 这两股力量一加叠 135 00:05:29,459 --> 00:05:32,908 就成了点燃整个科技板块盈利的超级火花 136 00:05:32,908 --> 00:05:35,548 这个不是那种讲讲故事的短期炒作 137 00:05:35,548 --> 00:05:37,668 这是全球算力需求爆发 138 00:05:37,668 --> 00:05:41,408 和国内产业链重构带来的实打实的业绩兑现 139 00:05:41,408 --> 00:05:45,088 这种科技霸权放在不同板块的对比上 140 00:05:45,088 --> 00:05:46,488 就更加刺激了 141 00:05:46,488 --> 00:05:50,069 你看科技创新企业扎堆的科创板 142 00:05:50,069 --> 00:05:51,490 一季度盈利增长 143 00:05:51,490 --> 00:05:55,649 居然达到了让人惊掉下巴的204.78 144 00:05:55,649 --> 00:05:56,870 而相比之下 145 00:05:56,870 --> 00:05:59,509 代表传统大盘股的主板增长 146 00:05:59,509 --> 00:06:01,529 仅仅只有温和的5.5帕 147 00:06:01,529 --> 00:06:03,000 这温差简直了 148 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,259 也这完美解释了为什么重仓科技的朋友 149 00:06:06,259 --> 00:06:08,480 今年初觉得市场火热的不行 150 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,660 而坚守传统价值的老铁们可能还在苦苦等风来 151 00:06:12,660 --> 00:06:15,870 把刚才这些线索全部拼在一起 152 00:06:15,870 --> 00:06:19,949 瑞星全球研究团队给出了一个非常明确的定调 153 00:06:19,949 --> 00:06:22,420 那就是真实的盈利复苏 154 00:06:22,420 --> 00:06:25,759 正在推动A股走向一个慢牛格局 155 00:06:25,759 --> 00:06:29,220 并且他们在结构上极其看好成长股 156 00:06:29,220 --> 00:06:31,920 既然基本面已经实质性触底了 157 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,180 那未来大盘往上走的动力 158 00:06:34,180 --> 00:06:36,800 靠的就是扎扎实实的业绩驱动 159 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,860 而不是那种虚无缥缈的估值泡沫 160 00:06:39,860 --> 00:06:41,459 这是一种更有韧性 161 00:06:41,459 --> 00:06:44,199 也更走得长远的慢牛行情 162 00:06:44,199 --> 00:06:45,519 那么重点来了 163 00:06:45,519 --> 00:06:47,379 到底该怎么操作呢 164 00:06:47,379 --> 00:06:49,779 基于这份干货满满的数据 165 00:06:49,779 --> 00:06:52,439 瑞行给出的策略非常直接 166 00:06:52,439 --> 00:06:55,939 超配那些业绩领跑的高景气行业 167 00:06:55,939 --> 00:06:59,019 具体来说就是电子电信 168 00:06:59,019 --> 00:07:00,168 非银金融 169 00:07:00,168 --> 00:07:01,329 国防军工 170 00:07:01,329 --> 00:07:02,509 有色金属 171 00:07:02,509 --> 00:07:05,769 化工以及电气设备这七大金刚 172 00:07:05,769 --> 00:07:07,250 同时他们也建议 173 00:07:07,250 --> 00:07:11,629 要在大盘龙头和高成长的小盘股之间做好平衡 174 00:07:11,629 --> 00:07:15,209 这样才能把各个层面的复苏红利都吃到嘴里 175 00:07:15,209 --> 00:07:15,889 好了 176 00:07:15,889 --> 00:07:18,949 本期解读到这里就接近尾声了 177 00:07:18,949 --> 00:07:23,899 各项硬核数据都在大声宣告市场已经彻底换挡 178 00:07:23,899 --> 00:07:27,850 一头由盈利驱动的慢牛正在我们眼前觉醒 179 00:07:27,850 --> 00:07:31,870 那些紧跟科技创新和中上游复苏步伐的企业 180 00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:33,798 正在疯狂收割利润 181 00:07:33,798 --> 00:07:36,478 市场的旧玩法已经行不通了 182 00:07:36,478 --> 00:07:39,029 那么我想留给大家一个问题 183 00:07:39,029 --> 00:07:41,370 面对这种巨大的结构性变局 184 00:07:41,370 --> 00:07:43,230 你的投资组合准备好 185 00:07:43,230 --> 00:07:46,709 迎击这场由科技主导的复苏新现实了吗 186 00:07:46,709 --> 00:07:48,069 感谢大家的陪伴 187 00:07:48,069 --> 00:07:50,019 咱们下期内容再见
评论采集失败
采集完成，该视频无弹幕