【NaNa说美股】20260605上车了，上的救护车！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是6月5号

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全球股市遭遇了黑色星期五

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恐慌情绪迅速蔓延

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韩国股市率先跌到了熔断

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美股这边呢也遭到了大清算

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纳指重挫4.18%

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标普500大跌超2%

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就连老登道指也支棱不起来了哈

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照样你叫出了1.35%的跌幅

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昨天博通业绩不及预期

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已经导致了AI产业链的动荡

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今天非农数据火热

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加息恐慌引爆了风险资产

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科技股全体重伤

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抬进ICU抢救

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盘前08:30

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美国劳工统计局甩出了一份逆天数据

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美国就业市场5月强势反弹

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非农新增就业人口狂飙17.2万人

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几乎是市场预期8.8万人的两倍

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也远高于4月份的11.5万人

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与此同时呢

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3月和4月的数据还合计算修了9.3万人

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直接将过去三个月的就业增速

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推到了近两年来的最强表现

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而且就业增长还扩散到了各行各业

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失业率呢维持了4.3%不变

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实行环比33 0.3%

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同比上升3.4%

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符合预期

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这份报告彻底击碎了华尔街的防线

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交易员们在极度恐慌中完全加了

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美联储将在今年12月前加息25个基点

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甚至预期最早10月份就可能被迫采取行动

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而此前预期是拖到明年3月才加息的

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美债利即就遭遇了大幅抛售

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10年级别的收益率呢直线拉升

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再次强势突破了4.5%的川普红线

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这是美国金融市场的承重墙哈

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他倒下的其他一切也都跟随倒下

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WTI原油期货价格的继续回落

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也不是通胀什么问题

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今天原油走的是加息引发经济放缓

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时有需求收缩的衰退剧本哈

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高利率正在无差别的绞杀场内所有风险资产

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标普500指数本周录的下跌2.6%

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终结了前面的周线九连延

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其实非农也好

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博通也罢

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都只是表面的借口

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实际上就是指数呢已经连续大涨的九周

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如果本周再拉出一根阳线

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走出这个十周连涨

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那将是自1985年以来最长的连续上涨记录

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生产队的驴也得歇息一下

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不是吗

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真以为人家是永动机呢

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市场呢积累了海量的获利盘

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ISI指标早已经嗯严重超卖

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机构本身哈

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就在寻找一个完美的借口来合法套现

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下周56月12号

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SPACEX这个世纪IPO就要登场

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华尔街的巨鳄们必须在科技股高位大举套现

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把流动性挪腾出来

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为抢购space x预留庞大的资金头寸

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顺便也让这个市场停下来休整一下

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降降温

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别到时候SPACEX刚上市

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美股就马上封

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同时也给美联储一点颜色

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看看哈

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看他敢不敢加息

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华尔街今天大肆炒作美联储加息

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实际上呢就是以进为退

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给美联储施压

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同时也是给卧室顶住FOMC内部压力

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坚持不降息造势

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你看市场都跌成这样子了

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还加什么C是吧

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事实上哈对于美联储加息的炒作都是烟雾弹

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此前呢美国一直压着日本不让加息

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生怕冲即日元套利交易导致美股失血

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尤其是怕影响到美债市场

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但是现在日本再不加息

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日元汇率也保不住了哈

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华尔街在6月初选择倒割砸盘

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也是在防范日元套利交易

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大平仓的潜在系统性风险

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那既然这个五周均线已经失守了

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接下来呢我们就要看一下这个十周均线支撑

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目前处于七千二百十六点附近

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如果要是跌到这里的话

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那真的是一个非常好的抄底的机会

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日线级别

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标普500指数昨天开盘跳水后被迅速拉起

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我们还在探讨6月中旬之前

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市场正干把环境结构性限制了

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大幅下跌的概率是吧

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结果今天这个事情突然就脱离剧本了

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直接暴跌

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在真正的宏观重锤和流动性恐慌面前哈

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任何衍生品的高墙都犹如这个纸糊一样

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昨天的下跌只是个股财报波通呃

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那个引起的宏观层面还是风平浪静

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多头的逢低买入信心完好

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但是今天非农黑天啊太大了

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瞬间就击碎了多头的防御心理

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原本堆积在这7600点的

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大量看涨期权持有人恐慌了哈

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为了防止手里期权费归零

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他们就开始大面积割肉平仓看涨期权

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那作为对手盘的做市商

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手里原本用来对冲的多头股票头寸瞬间就溢出

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为了保持delta中性

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做市商呢就只能在现货市场疯狂反向砸盘

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这进一步加剧了日内跌势

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导致这个行情一泻千里

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川普发文说

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就业报告非常强劲

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股市理应上涨

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而不是下跌

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过去200多年来一直都是这样

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经济增长并不意味着通胀

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一个国家如果不实现增长

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又怎么能够实现伟大呢

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不拉不拉不拉

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他说的其实都没错

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都对

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非农大好

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的确说明美国经济很强

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按常理来说

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美股呢的确是不应该大跌的

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毕竟推动美股上涨的主要嗯

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和这个核心因素是企业盈利嘛

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那你劳动力市场很好的话

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说明这企业盈利也会很强

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怎么能够崩掉呢

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但是如今这个年头哈

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说实话都没人知道数据到底真假

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尤其这数据这么炸裂

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最最主要的是

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就既然华尔街此时此刻想要让美股下跌

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那理由都是现成的

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什么爱塞超买啦

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多头仓位极端拥挤啦

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加息恐慌啦等等

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这不都已经说了很久了吗

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之前呃市场猛涨的时候

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这些理由都是个屁哈

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但是现在既然要跌了

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那当然就打出来当成回事来说

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前段时间咱们曾在视频里提到

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美银的那位策略师MICHAELHARNET

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咱们的老朋友了

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他曾在5月底啊写了份报告

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建议投资者呢在6月初就获利了结

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因为6月重大事件扎堆

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很容易引发这个整体市场动荡

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现在美股的走势验证了它的这个警告

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就指数自从进入6月份开始就掉头回落了

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今天还把关键波段支撑月均线给跌破了

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那技术性破位就意味着短期趋势已经转弱哈

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这种跌幅得回溯到去年4月份呃

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关税解放日恐慌时期嗯

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除了这个苹果之外

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5月18号那天

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QQQ跌破这条陡峭的上升趋势线之后呢

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本来就应该先回调

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或者是横盘整理一段时间的哈

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消化这个估值

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结果呢直接马不停蹄的又狂澜了十几天

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这涨势过度延伸了

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封目结束之后

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当然就是一地鸡毛

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不过呢大盘呃指数和个股还是不一样的

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嗯个股有些可能就真的一地鸡毛起不来了

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但是大盘还能够起来

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科技牛市不会现在就结束哈

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因为ENTROPICK和open e那俩还没有IPO呢

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这牛市要是就结束了

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那还砸IPO啊

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如今华尔街各大投行们不仅需要确保呃

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当下这个SPACEX上市能够一炮而红

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更需要为了预计随后登场的OpenAI和ENTROPK

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两大巨型IPO提前铺路哈

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积累信心

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所以呢这个牛市崩是不能崩的

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跌到了30日均线

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把过去两周给积攒起来的

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因为抱团AI硬件产生的估值泡沫

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一天内就进行了暴烈的侵袭

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既然大盘已经用一根巨大的阴线

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跌破了这条月线结界

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那么重个股轻大盘

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盲目逢低买入的这个激进策略

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那当现在就必须立刻停止了哈

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在6月18号三五日真正到来之前呢

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市场已经提前进入了多头阵痛期

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接下来我们就要看QQ到底能在何处

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找到真正的制度性的支撑

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波动率指数VIXX

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今天呢日内狂飙了40%

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收盘直接冲上20了

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这个市场的自满和乐观情绪被彻底打破了

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大量裸奔的多头日内恐慌性买入put哈

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导致VIX指数在极短时间内就大幅飙升

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对这种需求呢已经不需要等到这个月中了

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今天非农已经提早扣动了全面回调的板机

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市场已经真正进入了防御姿态

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昨天小盘股IWM满血复活

214
00:09:45,870 --> 00:09:50,669
市场还以为是健康的板块轮动和宽度改善呃

215
00:09:53,389 --> 00:09:55,429
IWM被冲得稀里哗啦的

216
00:09:55,429 --> 00:09:59,330
这直接就证明昨天的轮动根本就不是什么健康

217
00:09:59,330 --> 00:10:00,068
排毒

218
00:10:00,068 --> 00:10:04,940
就是主力机构在撤离大科技前沿的最后一场戏

219
00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,220
昨天我尝试空了一下费曼哈

220
00:10:10,220 --> 00:10:11,589
差点被吓尿了

221
00:10:11,589 --> 00:10:13,668
如果今天再做空的话

222
00:10:13,668 --> 00:10:16,239
那时间点就完美做空美股

223
00:10:16,239 --> 00:10:18,219
就好像出门拐角遇到爱

224
00:10:18,219 --> 00:10:20,278
早一点晚一点都不行哈

225
00:10:20,278 --> 00:10:22,009
必须刚刚好呃

226
00:10:22,009 --> 00:10:24,389
成分股今天全军覆没

227
00:10:24,389 --> 00:10:27,230
高估值风险迎来了集中清算

228
00:10:27,230 --> 00:10:28,980
美观科技啊

229
00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:30,240
英特尔等等

230
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,080
前两天还让人高攀不起

231
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,899
今年全场打骨折了

232
00:10:33,899 --> 00:10:37,679
朋友们被老黄带货吹上天的迈威尔科技

233
00:10:39,460 --> 00:10:40,600
股价20K呢

234
00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,519
一根长黑棍灌破了5日均线

235
00:10:43,519 --> 00:10:44,460
说实话哈

236
00:10:44,460 --> 00:10:48,250
最近这个AI硬件行情这么疯狂

237
00:10:48,250 --> 00:10:49,909
老还带货

238
00:10:49,909 --> 00:10:51,570
我觉得有很大的原因

239
00:10:51,570 --> 00:10:54,789
但这也不能完全怪老黄吧

240
00:10:54,789 --> 00:10:58,370
毕竟资金呢也是想找个理由炒作而已

241
00:10:58,370 --> 00:11:01,389
老黄总不能给AI泼冷水是吧

242
00:11:01,389 --> 00:11:03,110
当初不小心说了

243
00:11:03,110 --> 00:11:05,330
量子技术还没有成熟

244
00:11:05,330 --> 00:11:07,309
导致量子板块暴跌

245
00:11:07,309 --> 00:11:09,960
后来老黄就被按着头给认错

246
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,259
所以呢这个事情也是一个教训

247
00:11:13,259 --> 00:11:15,980
但是呢我觉得他公开的倡多呃

248
00:11:15,980 --> 00:11:19,440
迈威尔科技说他未来是旺亿牛股嗯

249
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,350
这种pop股票的这个行为

250
00:11:22,350 --> 00:11:25,330
我个人来说其实还不是很赞成的

251
00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:27,429
因为达昨天海护盘呢

252
00:11:27,429 --> 00:11:29,470
今天就当了砸盘的急先锋

253
00:11:29,470 --> 00:11:31,099
股价跌了6.2%

254
00:11:31,099 --> 00:11:34,339
即便在今年3月市场暴跌期间

255
00:11:34,339 --> 00:11:36,980
单日都没有跌过这么惨重的哈

256
00:11:36,980 --> 00:11:38,480
每次英伟达财报

257
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,580
华尔街分析师们都是集体参多

258
00:11:41,580 --> 00:11:43,299
最近这一次财报目标

259
00:11:43,299 --> 00:11:46,049
股价都已经喊到300美元以上了

260
00:11:46,049 --> 00:11:49,578
结果如今还在这个200美元附近挣扎

261
00:11:49,578 --> 00:11:51,599
AI硬件的基本面没有死

262
00:11:51,599 --> 00:11:56,479
但是整个AI产业链说白了还是靠四大巨头

263
00:11:56,479 --> 00:11:57,019
微软

264
00:11:57,019 --> 00:11:57,859
谷歌meta

265
00:11:57,859 --> 00:12:02,490
亚马逊的巨额资本支出给养着英伟达的营收

266
00:12:02,490 --> 00:12:04,090
也是主要靠这几个巨头啊

267
00:12:04,090 --> 00:12:07,370
还有他一堆小弟们的资金内循环嗯

268
00:12:07,370 --> 00:12:09,610
entropc on这个OpenAI

269
00:12:09,610 --> 00:12:12,230
他们的背后金主也是这几个巨头

270
00:12:12,230 --> 00:12:15,549
所以呢巨头们的任何资本支出的变化

271
00:12:15,549 --> 00:12:19,440
都会引起AI硬件行业的剧烈震荡

272
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:24,840
今天meta宣布也学谷歌要出售股权投资来搞AI

273
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,659
这也使得今年这个科技股的跌势火上浇油

274
00:12:28,659 --> 00:12:33,169
你们一个个的全都发在卖股票来投资AI

275
00:12:33,169 --> 00:12:37,759
那你什么时候给我们股东们这个呃发股息啊

276
00:12:37,759 --> 00:12:38,840
回购啊是吧

277
00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,090
钱都被你们拿去啊搞AI了

278
00:12:42,090 --> 00:12:45,330
那自然你对股东的回报就低了嘛

279
00:12:45,330 --> 00:12:45,830
当然了

280
00:12:45,830 --> 00:12:47,210
除非你的股价一直上涨

281
00:12:47,210 --> 00:12:49,360
可是说明它的股价也没有一直上涨

282
00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:50,639
特斯拉呢也很惨

283
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,159
盘中连一丝像样的抵抗都没有

284
00:12:55,159 --> 00:12:59,159
威布什前两天不是还吹要与SPACEX合体嘛

285
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:00,600
但艾瑞斯你给我滚出来

286
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:01,980
保证不打死你哈

287
00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:04,759
别的股票下跌可能还有这个那个原因

288
00:13:07,070 --> 00:13:08,129
原因很明显啊

289
00:13:08,129 --> 00:13:09,529
就是散户资金跑了

290
00:13:09,529 --> 00:13:11,029
想要凑钱打新

291
00:13:11,029 --> 00:13:12,649
下周五的SPACEX嘛

292
00:13:12,649 --> 00:13:14,980
现在各大券商都可以打新了

293
00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:16,759
说到呃SPACEX哈

294
00:13:16,759 --> 00:13:19,659
标普道琼斯指数公司刚刚拒绝了

295
00:13:19,659 --> 00:13:22,960
让SPACEX等超大市值公司上市后

296
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,120
快速纳入指数的提议

297
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,139
新股必须老老实实熬过12个月的观察期

298
00:13:29,139 --> 00:13:32,068
而且呢不豁免他们的盈利能力要求

299
00:13:32,068 --> 00:13:35,548
这其实对于指数来说是一个非常理性的决定

300
00:13:35,548 --> 00:13:37,250
也是保护投资者

301
00:13:37,250 --> 00:13:39,850
但是呢多少打击了市场情绪是吧

302
00:13:39,850 --> 00:13:43,690
因为这意味着呃这个未来股票少了

303
00:13:43,690 --> 00:13:47,359
追踪标普500的被动基金来当接盘侠们

304
00:13:47,359 --> 00:13:49,438
太空概念股今年也全崩了哈

305
00:13:49,438 --> 00:13:50,619
什么小月亮啦

306
00:13:50,619 --> 00:13:51,658
小火箭啦

307
00:13:51,658 --> 00:13:53,999
在座的全都是垃圾呃

308
00:13:53,999 --> 00:13:55,899
planet collapse公布财报后

309
00:13:55,899 --> 00:13:58,119
股价跳空暴跌26%

310
00:13:58,119 --> 00:14:00,918
公司Q1营收9400万美元

311
00:14:00,918 --> 00:14:03,220
同比增长了42%

312
00:14:03,220 --> 00:14:05,360
调整后每股亏损三昧份

313
00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,659
积压订单增长72%到9.061美元

314
00:14:09,659 --> 00:14:13,059
OK业绩本身虽然说没有暴雷

315
00:14:13,059 --> 00:14:14,379
但是呢运气不好

316
00:14:14,379 --> 00:14:15,980
赶上了大盘血洗

317
00:14:15,980 --> 00:14:18,769
吹出来的泡沫就被无情刺破

318
00:14:18,769 --> 00:14:20,649
其实跌的也不冤枉哈

319
00:14:20,649 --> 00:14:22,129
妖股成了游资

320
00:14:22,129 --> 00:14:26,179
今天在这个末日大盘里自得其乐的避风港

321
00:14:26,179 --> 00:14:28,480
太空电池概念STI

322
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,059
昨天爆拉350%之后

323
00:14:31,059 --> 00:14:33,909
今天再度飙涨了57.3%

324
00:14:33,909 --> 00:14:35,710
多次触发熔断

325
00:14:35,710 --> 00:14:36,629
公司宣布

326
00:14:36,629 --> 00:14:40,750
他持有的太空领域电池专利已经超过了30项

327
00:14:40,750 --> 00:14:42,990
可以为卫星近地轨道

328
00:14:42,990 --> 00:14:44,269
AI数据中心

329
00:14:44,269 --> 00:14:47,950
载人航天器以及未来的月球基础设施

330
00:14:47,950 --> 00:14:51,230
提供可靠高性能的储能方案

331
00:14:51,230 --> 00:14:55,000
呃也不知道是纯炒作呢还是真的

332
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,240
但是公司选在space x即将IPO之际

333
00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:59,860
来发布这个利好消息

334
00:14:59,860 --> 00:15:02,649
这个时机是选的非常的完美

335
00:15:02,649 --> 00:15:05,929
房利美股价在早盘一度上涨高达10%

336
00:15:05,929 --> 00:15:07,629
之后逆转下跌

337
00:15:07,629 --> 00:15:11,909
昨天川普还吹嘘两房市值能够上1万亿美元

338
00:15:11,909 --> 00:15:13,529
但是收益率今天飙升

339
00:15:13,529 --> 00:15:16,120
直接就给房地产市场泼了冷水

340
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,480
外界对于两方到底能否成功IPO呢

341
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:20,818
产生了新的疑虑

342
00:15:20,818 --> 00:15:25,058
本周CNN向白宫联邦住房金融局

343
00:15:25,058 --> 00:15:28,438
房利美和房地美询问最新时间表的时候

344
00:15:28,438 --> 00:15:30,029
都没有得到回复

345
00:15:30,029 --> 00:15:31,909
这说明市场根本就不急

346
00:15:31,909 --> 00:15:35,169
比阿克曼去年底还高调宣布呃

347
00:15:35,169 --> 00:15:38,789
樊利美普通股市2026年最佳投资标的

348
00:15:38,789 --> 00:15:41,119
如今他也闭嘴不谈这事了

349
00:15:41,119 --> 00:15:42,078
在REDIS

350
00:15:42,078 --> 00:15:45,558
上一个关于樊利美和房地美投资者的论坛上呢

351
00:15:45,558 --> 00:15:47,769
很多人也写的很这个沮丧哈

352
00:15:47,769 --> 00:15:53,149
我估计得等到市场重新炒作降息压注的时候

353
00:15:53,149 --> 00:15:56,149
这两方的股票才能够出现起色

354
00:15:56,149 --> 00:15:58,169
最后就给大家总结一下

355
00:15:58,169 --> 00:16:01,429
今天美股呢遭遇了一场很惨烈

356
00:16:01,429 --> 00:16:05,879
但是也差不多是一步到位的估值泡沫清洗

357
00:16:05,879 --> 00:16:08,279
短期趋势已经彻底走弱了

358
00:16:08,279 --> 00:16:09,600
这毋庸置疑哈

359
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,679
但是科技强牛呢并没有在今天死掉

360
00:16:12,679 --> 00:16:14,929
原因我们前面也说过呃

361
00:16:14,929 --> 00:16:18,690
这更像是大主力在重大IPO之前

362
00:16:18,690 --> 00:16:23,019
故意主动砸盘的一个暴利洗盘的行为

363
00:16:23,019 --> 00:16:26,568
下周是SPACEX上市的决战周

364
00:16:26,568 --> 00:16:29,688
在6月18号商务日真正到来之前

365
00:16:29,688 --> 00:16:31,940
市场在下周初呃

366
00:16:31,940 --> 00:16:34,679
大概率会在这个连续暴跌之后

367
00:16:34,679 --> 00:16:38,179
在30日均线和50日均线区间

368
00:16:38,179 --> 00:16:40,479
展开技术性抵抗

369
00:16:40,479 --> 00:16:42,879
个股呢会出现剧烈震荡

370
00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:46,029
大家要保持现金流的灵活性哈

371
00:16:46,029 --> 00:16:49,769
呃耐心等待mix指数在20上方冲高回落

372
00:16:49,769 --> 00:16:53,519
如果VX能够重新回落到20以下的话

373
00:16:53,519 --> 00:16:56,500
那这个危险可能就暂时解除了

374
00:16:56,500 --> 00:16:59,679
要是VIX在20上面持续上攻啊

375
00:16:59,679 --> 00:17:01,970
那就要非常非常的小心呃

376
00:17:01,970 --> 00:17:05,549
说明这个风险还在持续示范行啊

377
00:17:05,549 --> 00:17:07,289
今天我们就说到这里

378
00:17:07,289 --> 00:17:08,769
那祝大家这个周末愉快

379
00:17:08,769 --> 00:17:09,630
我们下次再见

380
00:17:09,630 --> 00:17:10,160
拜拜

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