BV1RNR4BKEPf · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,820 欢迎来到本期解析 2 00:00:01,820 --> 00:00:02,899 想象一下 3 00:00:02,899 --> 00:00:06,799 一家堂堂的中国蓝筹股巨头突然站出来说 4 00:00:06,799 --> 00:00:07,859 诶等等 5 00:00:07,859 --> 00:00:11,478 我们2025年前三季度的销售额要往下调 6 00:00:11,478 --> 00:00:13,869 而且一条就是整整50趴 7 00:00:13,869 --> 00:00:15,669 这可不是什么框前的财报 8 00:00:15,669 --> 00:00:16,670 小修小补啊 9 00:00:16,670 --> 00:00:19,960 这简直是一场引发市场大地震的逆转 10 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,239 今天咱们就来好好拆解一下 11 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:24,760 高盛最新出炉的这份深度研究报告 12 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,199 看看这家白酒巨头怎么就突然被戴夫降级了 13 00:00:28,199 --> 00:00:31,759 这背后到底藏着什么不为人知的戏剧性谜团 14 00:00:31,759 --> 00:00:33,198 咱们废话不多说 15 00:00:33,198 --> 00:00:36,700 直接看这个极其劲爆的头条数字 16 00:00:36,700 --> 00:00:41,619 高盛直接把五粮液的评级从一路看好的买入 17 00:00:41,619 --> 00:00:43,520 一刀切到了卖出 18 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:44,299 你没听错 19 00:00:44,299 --> 00:00:45,810 是绝对的卖出 20 00:00:45,810 --> 00:00:47,960 他们给出的理由非常直接 21 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,780 现在的风险回报比太不划算了 22 00:00:50,780 --> 00:00:51,700 不仅如此 23 00:00:51,700 --> 00:00:55,490 他们还把新的目标价狠狠地定在了83块钱 24 00:00:55,490 --> 00:00:56,509 这意味着什么呢 25 00:00:56,509 --> 00:00:58,649 这意味着相对于目前的股价 26 00:00:58,649 --> 00:01:02,090 竟然还有高达14.5帕的下跌空间 27 00:01:02,090 --> 00:01:02,890 对于一家 28 00:01:02,890 --> 00:01:05,650 曾经被大家捧在手心里的行业标杆来说 29 00:01:05,650 --> 00:01:08,140 这绝对算得上是一记重锤 30 00:01:08,140 --> 00:01:11,359 那么到底哪里出了岔子呢 31 00:01:11,359 --> 00:01:13,420 为了把这事儿彻底弄明白 32 00:01:13,420 --> 00:01:16,060 咱们今天的解析分五步走 33 00:01:16,060 --> 00:01:18,759 首先看高盛的这次降级操作 34 00:01:18,759 --> 00:01:21,938 接着深挖那个离谱的收入重数 35 00:01:21,938 --> 00:01:24,680 然后聊聊让人头疼的库存积压 36 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,060 再看看大幅下调的盈利预测 37 00:01:27,060 --> 00:01:29,000 最后呢咱们也找找看 38 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,289 这其中还有没有一线生机 39 00:01:31,289 --> 00:01:35,009 这其实也就是咱们今天追踪线索的投资逻辑 40 00:01:35,009 --> 00:01:35,909 路线图了 41 00:01:35,909 --> 00:01:38,088 好咱们先进入第一部分 42 00:01:38,088 --> 00:01:39,509 高盛的降级 43 00:01:39,509 --> 00:01:41,748 咱们先从宏观视角切入 44 00:01:41,748 --> 00:01:44,608 回顾一下这份在2026年5月 45 00:01:44,608 --> 00:01:48,140 一石激起千层浪的官方降级报告 46 00:01:48,140 --> 00:01:50,099 如果你一路关注着这家公司 47 00:01:50,099 --> 00:01:51,120 你肯定知道 48 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:52,659 自打2021年以来 49 00:01:52,659 --> 00:01:55,180 他在大个机构那可一直是妥妥的 50 00:01:55,180 --> 00:01:57,349 蓝筹股买入名单里的常客 51 00:01:57,349 --> 00:01:58,069 你可以看到 52 00:01:58,069 --> 00:02:00,918 当年那些冲破200多元的超高目标价 53 00:02:00,918 --> 00:02:02,879 但是现在的画风突变了 54 00:02:02,879 --> 00:02:04,539 直接给出了卖出评级 55 00:02:04,539 --> 00:02:07,140 目标价也一路砍到了83元 56 00:02:07,140 --> 00:02:10,250 这种强烈的反差真的让人倒吸一口凉气 57 00:02:10,250 --> 00:02:10,969 说实话 58 00:02:10,969 --> 00:02:13,289 这已经不仅是数字上的修修补补了 59 00:02:13,289 --> 00:02:15,629 这代表着整个市场情绪发生了一次 60 00:02:15,629 --> 00:02:17,500 彻头彻尾的大掉头 61 00:02:17,500 --> 00:02:19,599 这就来到了咱们的第二部分 62 00:02:19,599 --> 00:02:21,789 收入重数到底是什么 63 00:02:21,789 --> 00:02:23,770 扣动了情绪大转弯的扳机 64 00:02:23,770 --> 00:02:24,689 关键线索 65 00:02:24,689 --> 00:02:27,860 就在那份让人大跌眼镜的财务数据重述里 66 00:02:27,860 --> 00:02:30,860 在对2025年的商业模式和收入确认方式 67 00:02:30,860 --> 00:02:33,439 进行了一番非常全面的大审查之后 68 00:02:33,439 --> 00:02:36,289 五粮液发布了一份正式的财务重述 69 00:02:36,289 --> 00:02:37,969 各位抓稳扶手了 70 00:02:37,969 --> 00:02:39,210 他们把之前报告的 71 00:02:39,210 --> 00:02:40,610 2025年前三季度 72 00:02:40,610 --> 00:02:43,840 销售额直接往下砍了整整50% 73 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:44,620 不但如此 74 00:02:44,620 --> 00:02:48,110 净利润更是被下调了惊人的70% 75 00:02:48,110 --> 00:02:51,349 对于任何一家已经非常成熟的企业来说 76 00:02:51,349 --> 00:02:55,060 这种级别的向下调整真的是极其罕见的 77 00:02:55,060 --> 00:02:56,520 那么问题来了 78 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,780 这数据是怎么评估缩水这么多的呢 79 00:02:59,780 --> 00:03:00,620 其实啊 80 00:03:00,620 --> 00:03:01,900 这就非常精妙地 81 00:03:01,900 --> 00:03:05,300 揭示了他们会计准则转变的核心逻辑 82 00:03:05,300 --> 00:03:07,530 过去啊他们的旧正测试 83 00:03:07,530 --> 00:03:10,729 只要把一箱箱的酒发货给销商商好 84 00:03:10,729 --> 00:03:13,210 这笔钱就算作公司收入了 85 00:03:13,210 --> 00:03:15,150 但是现在新政策变了 86 00:03:15,150 --> 00:03:16,419 变得非常谨慎 87 00:03:16,419 --> 00:03:18,599 他们现在必须耐下性子 88 00:03:18,599 --> 00:03:21,599 等到这瓶酒真正被终端的消费者买走 89 00:03:21,599 --> 00:03:23,810 也就是业内说的实际动销 90 00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:25,759 才能把这笔钱算作收入 91 00:03:25,759 --> 00:03:29,740 你看这表面上仅仅是个财务记账的时间差问题 92 00:03:29,740 --> 00:03:31,659 但他其实深刻地反映出 93 00:03:31,659 --> 00:03:33,939 整个行业大环境真的变了 94 00:03:33,939 --> 00:03:37,620 咱们把目光转向公司的这些实际财务数据 95 00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:39,240 你可以很直观地看到 96 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,740 这种基于时间点的重新分类 97 00:03:41,740 --> 00:03:43,580 简直可以说是彻底重塑了 98 00:03:43,580 --> 00:03:45,370 2025年的财务基本面 99 00:03:45,370 --> 00:03:47,610 他们等于是把海量的未实践收入 100 00:03:47,610 --> 00:03:49,250 给硬生生往后推迟了 101 00:03:49,250 --> 00:03:51,050 这就导致单期的营收数据 102 00:03:51,050 --> 00:03:53,289 看起来像是经历了断崖式下跌 103 00:03:53,289 --> 00:03:54,009 当然了 104 00:03:54,009 --> 00:03:55,050 必须得说清楚 105 00:03:55,050 --> 00:03:57,349 公司的实际现金流其实没变 106 00:03:57,349 --> 00:04:00,620 因为钱早就在前端已预付款的形式收件来了 107 00:04:00,620 --> 00:04:02,419 但这确确实实改变了大家 108 00:04:02,419 --> 00:04:05,579 评估公司当前真实卖货能力的标准 109 00:04:05,579 --> 00:04:08,459 这自然就引出了咱们的第三部分 110 00:04:08,459 --> 00:04:09,870 库存积压 111 00:04:09,870 --> 00:04:11,310 你肯定会好奇 112 00:04:11,310 --> 00:04:14,150 管理层怎么就突然决定要搞这么一场 113 00:04:14,150 --> 00:04:16,250 剧烈的会计政策大变动呢 114 00:04:16,250 --> 00:04:19,379 他们到底察觉到了什么危险信号 115 00:04:19,379 --> 00:04:22,899 真正的罪魁祸首其实就是四个字儿 116 00:04:22,899 --> 00:04:24,199 库存积压 117 00:04:24,199 --> 00:04:26,879 具体来说是庞大的渠道 118 00:04:26,879 --> 00:04:27,980 库存积压 119 00:04:27,980 --> 00:04:32,079 意思就是大型经销商从厂家进货的数量 120 00:04:32,079 --> 00:04:35,220 跟他们实际能卖给老百姓的数量之间 121 00:04:35,220 --> 00:04:37,519 裂开了一道巨大的鸿沟 122 00:04:37,519 --> 00:04:38,379 说白了 123 00:04:38,379 --> 00:04:39,600 成吨的白酒 124 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,740 其实只是从厂家的仓库 125 00:04:41,740 --> 00:04:43,920 搬到了经销商的仓库里吃灰 126 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,709 并没有真正被消费者开瓶喝掉 127 00:04:46,709 --> 00:04:49,029 而这种可怕的库存积压 128 00:04:49,029 --> 00:04:52,798 正在反噬整个原本健康的资金生态链 129 00:04:52,798 --> 00:04:55,519 因为销售商现在手里全压着货 130 00:04:55,519 --> 00:04:57,139 资金链紧巴巴的 131 00:04:57,139 --> 00:04:59,158 五粮液也就被迫妥协 132 00:04:59,158 --> 00:05:02,358 开始接受更多比例的银行承兑汇票 133 00:05:02,358 --> 00:05:05,350 而不是像以前那样直接收真金白银 134 00:05:05,350 --> 00:05:08,250 这个妥协的代价可是相当沉重的 135 00:05:08,250 --> 00:05:11,029 它直接导致公司在2026年第一季度 136 00:05:11,029 --> 00:05:14,819 的经营性现金流一路狂跌进了负值区间 137 00:05:14,819 --> 00:05:17,040 达到了-25亿元人民币 138 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,269 这可是个不小的警示灯 139 00:05:19,550 --> 00:05:22,189 咱们顺着这条线索往下看 140 00:05:22,189 --> 00:05:23,730 你看这组数据 141 00:05:23,730 --> 00:05:26,250 应收票据和应收款项融资 142 00:05:26,250 --> 00:05:28,430 仅仅用了一个季度的时间 143 00:05:28,430 --> 00:05:30,319 就直接翻了一倍多 144 00:05:30,319 --> 00:05:32,120 从年底的94亿 145 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,980 像坐火箭一样飙升到了207亿 146 00:05:34,980 --> 00:05:38,029 这简直就是一个再明确不过的信号 147 00:05:38,029 --> 00:05:41,589 公司为了不让下面那些脆弱的销售体系崩盘 148 00:05:41,589 --> 00:05:43,410 现在不得不自己掏腰包 149 00:05:43,410 --> 00:05:46,800 提供巨额的金融支持来给他们续命 150 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,100 那么这就到了咱们的第四部分 151 00:05:49,100 --> 00:05:50,990 大幅下调的盈利预测 152 00:05:50,990 --> 00:05:52,670 既然会计准则条了 153 00:05:52,670 --> 00:05:55,029 底下的销售就会又在苦苦挣扎 154 00:05:55,029 --> 00:05:56,850 高盛显然别无选择 155 00:05:56,850 --> 00:05:59,750 只能重新用放大镜去审视这家公司 156 00:05:59,750 --> 00:06:01,470 未来的赚钱能力了 157 00:06:01,470 --> 00:06:04,110 如果你看向这份盈利预测调整表 158 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:06,189 最右侧那个标准变化的列 159 00:06:06,189 --> 00:06:08,029 一切就都真相大白了 160 00:06:08,029 --> 00:06:11,750 你也会瞬间理解这只股票为什么会被狠狠降级 161 00:06:11,750 --> 00:06:13,110 高盛对五粮液 162 00:06:13,110 --> 00:06:15,629 2026年和2027年的营收预期 163 00:06:15,629 --> 00:06:18,029 可以说是一点情面都没留 164 00:06:18,029 --> 00:06:20,290 直接砍掉了将近23帕 165 00:06:20,290 --> 00:06:23,230 而净利润预期的下调幅度也同样惊人 166 00:06:23,230 --> 00:06:25,860 这可以说是一次彻头彻尾的大出血 167 00:06:25,860 --> 00:06:27,579 在分析师眼里消化掉 168 00:06:27,579 --> 00:06:30,990 那些堆积如山的渠道库存是需要漫长周期的 169 00:06:30,990 --> 00:06:31,970 更要命的是 170 00:06:31,970 --> 00:06:33,589 在现在的市场低迷期 171 00:06:33,589 --> 00:06:35,610 你想去抢占市场份额 172 00:06:35,610 --> 00:06:37,970 还得砸进去海量的真金白银 173 00:06:37,970 --> 00:06:39,569 所以他们得出一个结论 174 00:06:39,569 --> 00:06:42,790 这家公司的业务发展实质上等于是一脚踩空 175 00:06:42,790 --> 00:06:44,970 直接倒退了整整5年一夜 176 00:06:44,970 --> 00:06:47,670 回到了2019~2020年的时候的水平 177 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:50,670 各位对于一家原本应该是高歌猛进的成 178 00:06:50,670 --> 00:06:51,949 长型蓝筹股来说 179 00:06:51,949 --> 00:06:52,750 白白丢药 180 00:06:52,750 --> 00:06:55,670 这几年的时光绝对是非常痛苦的一件事 181 00:06:55,670 --> 00:06:57,790 不过呢咱们到了第五部分 182 00:06:57,790 --> 00:07:00,009 一线生机与风险 183 00:07:00,009 --> 00:07:03,129 为了保证咱们这期解析完全客观公正 184 00:07:03,129 --> 00:07:05,889 咱们绝对不能只盯着坏消息看 185 00:07:05,889 --> 00:07:07,689 咱们也得反过来想想 186 00:07:07,689 --> 00:07:10,649 上行风险到底有没有什么情况发生 187 00:07:10,649 --> 00:07:15,168 能狠狠打脸高盛这个极其看跌的卖出评级呢 188 00:07:15,168 --> 00:07:18,069 高盛自己其实在报告里也留了后手 189 00:07:18,069 --> 00:07:20,110 指出了几个潜在的转机 190 00:07:20,110 --> 00:07:20,910 比如说 191 00:07:20,910 --> 00:07:23,170 如果政策层面真的出台了什么 192 00:07:23,170 --> 00:07:25,230 强有力的实质性刺激措施 193 00:07:25,230 --> 00:07:27,620 切实拉动了高端白酒的需求 194 00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:31,420 或者是公司在那些抗风险能力更强的中端市场 195 00:07:31,420 --> 00:07:33,529 成功打出了爆款新产品 196 00:07:33,529 --> 00:07:35,970 再或者像茅台和泸州老窖 197 00:07:35,970 --> 00:07:38,050 这些老对手们手下留情 198 00:07:38,050 --> 00:07:40,129 减轻了市场竞争的火力 199 00:07:40,129 --> 00:07:41,829 只要这些情况发生 200 00:07:41,829 --> 00:07:44,230 都能立刻变成巨大的缓冲电 201 00:07:44,230 --> 00:07:47,459 甚至直接扭转眼下这种不乐观的局面 202 00:07:47,459 --> 00:07:52,100 而且咱们绝对不能忽略一个硬核事实 203 00:07:52,100 --> 00:07:54,829 五粮液他真的不缺钱 204 00:07:54,829 --> 00:07:57,110 截至2026年第一季度末 205 00:07:57,110 --> 00:08:00,589 他们账户上可是躺着超过1240亿元 206 00:08:00,589 --> 00:08:02,399 人民币的巨额现金 207 00:08:02,399 --> 00:08:04,079 1240亿啊 208 00:08:04,079 --> 00:08:04,579 朋友们 209 00:08:04,579 --> 00:08:07,439 这简直就是一座坚不可摧的金融堡垒 210 00:08:07,439 --> 00:08:10,000 抗风险能力绝对是一流的 211 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,680 管理层心里跟明镜儿似的 212 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,920 非常懂得怎么去安抚焦虑的市场 213 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,500 他们打算怎么用这笔巨款呢 214 00:08:18,500 --> 00:08:19,399 很简单 215 00:08:19,399 --> 00:08:22,920 重金犒赏那些在这个转型的阵痛期 216 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,089 依然愿意坚定陪跑的投资者们 217 00:08:26,089 --> 00:08:28,189 他们不仅拍胸脯保证 218 00:08:28,189 --> 00:08:29,990 从2027年开始 219 00:08:29,990 --> 00:08:33,889 每年至少拿出200元元的真金白银来分红 220 00:08:33,889 --> 00:08:35,250 还豪掷千金 221 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:37,889 宣布了一项高达100亿元人民币 222 00:08:37,889 --> 00:08:40,019 的全新股份回购计划 223 00:08:40,019 --> 00:08:40,879 说实话 224 00:08:40,879 --> 00:08:42,720 这一套组合拳打下来 225 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:44,940 无疑是给摇摇欲坠的骨架 226 00:08:44,940 --> 00:08:47,419 铺上了一层厚厚的安全垫儿 227 00:08:47,419 --> 00:08:50,179 好了今天这份干货满满的报告 228 00:08:50,179 --> 00:08:52,440 咱们就彻头彻尾的拆解完了 229 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,139 那么在节目的最后 230 00:08:54,139 --> 00:08:56,919 我想把这个最核心的问题留给屏幕前的你 231 00:08:56,919 --> 00:08:58,059 来亲自点亮 232 00:08:58,059 --> 00:09:00,600 在底下那些销售商勤咬紧牙关 233 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,149 清理库存的这段漫长阵痛期里 234 00:09:03,149 --> 00:09:05,210 五粮液那逆天的资产负债表 235 00:09:05,210 --> 00:09:06,389 加上超级大方 236 00:09:06,389 --> 00:09:08,078 真金白银的股东回报 237 00:09:08,078 --> 00:09:11,438 到底能不能填平业绩大幅倒退 238 00:09:11,438 --> 00:09:12,958 带来的巨大鸿沟呢 239 00:09:12,958 --> 00:09:15,318 还是说就像高盛判断的那样 240 00:09:15,318 --> 00:09:17,359 这场动金股的深度商业转型 241 00:09:17,359 --> 00:09:20,158 本身就已经意味着深不见底的风险 242 00:09:20,158 --> 00:09:22,009 非常感谢您收看本期解析 243 00:09:22,009 --> 00:09:24,379 咱们下期节目不见不散
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