【NaNa说美股】20260220上下翻飞！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是2月20号周五

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同时呢也是月度期权结算日

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盘面从一开始就带着浓厚的衍生品博弈色彩

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午盘之前

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指数上下翻飞

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多空频繁换手

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走势明显被期权对冲盘所牵引

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直到下午两点之后

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随着部分伽马场口逐步定住

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指数才真正稳定下来

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并且在高位横盘

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到收市盘前公布的PC1数据显示

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美国12月整体与核心PC物价指数呢

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都超出市场预期

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为2025年2月以来新高

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同时美国第四季度GDP增长1.4%

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大幅低于市场预期的2.8%

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和前值4.4%

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这一组通胀偏热

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增长放缓的组合是交易员们最不愿意看到的

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这张信号

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也强化了美联储会议纪要偏阴的基调

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不过这些数据本身存在失真的嫌疑哈

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四季度GDP放缓部分呢

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受到政府停摆的技术性影响

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消费支出也有阶段性收敛迹象

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与此同时

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减税政策预期与AI投资扩张

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可能在2026年对美国经济形成支撑

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而12月PC1在时间维度上已经略显滞后了

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市场更关注的是后面的通胀轨迹

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因此呢这些数据公布之后

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市场情绪并没有失控嗯

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期货盘前虽然走低

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但是交易员们依然坚持压住6月降息

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真正改变盘面节奏的是上午十点左右的系

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美国最高法院裁定

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川普大范围关税计划缺乏明确的法律授权

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这个消息瞬间就对冲了PC1带来的宏观利空

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引发了第二波直线拉升呃

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许多在6850点附近建仓的空头

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在连续被PC1反转和关税裁决双杀之后

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被迫集中回补

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今天银行波动率非常的高啊

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期权看跌看涨比率呢飙升到了1.28

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达到嗯12个月以来的最高水平

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经常做期权的朋友们应该都知道

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就是当所有人都在进行对冲保护的时候

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市场反而跌不下去

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容易触发反向挤压

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收割所有看跌基权

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今天盘前股指期货走低的时候呃

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0日到期的看涨期权

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隐含波动率竟然比put还要高

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这说明有资金在提前压住

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开盘之后会低开高走反包

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这也解释了盘中多次快速拉升背后的期权

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伽马驱动逻辑

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下午川普硬干呃

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最高法院称这个裁决可耻

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并且提出了备选方案

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就是在目前已经征收的常规关税基础上

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额外对全球商品加征10%的关税

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理论上哈加征关税应该说对股市不利是吧

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结果呢在他讲话期间

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股指却再度上行

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这看起来违背常识

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但市场其实是在交易确定性逻辑

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市场虽然急拉

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但更多是出于一种真空状态下的狂欢

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市场最怕的并不是高关税

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而是不知道明天会发生什么

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所以呢快速拉升狂欢之后又很快掉下来了

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当川普后面给出10%

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全球加增的备选方案时

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市场认为啊这个就是川普的终极底牌了哈

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相比之前动辄50%甚至更激进

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而且法律基础模糊的互惠关税

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这10%的备选方案虽然也很硬

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但是路径更清晰

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预期呢也更明确

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所以市场真正厌恶的并不是关税本身啊

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而是政策不可预测

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川普立即就提出备选方案

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就等于去掉了一个不确定性

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从全天走势来看

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当前美股明显是处于政策驱动阶段啦

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宏观数据的影响力在政策博弈面前啊

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已经被边缘化

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更值得关注的是

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今天的尾盘结构

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最后半小时没有出现明显的获利回吐

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指数呢收在日内高位附近

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这说明机构资金并没有选择周末前大规模撤退

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这种强势收盘

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要么说明期权结算后

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伽马转正对冲盘呢有放大波动

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转为抑制波动了

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形成了被动托盘

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最终四大股指集体收涨

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标普500本周累计上涨了1.07%

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纳指上涨1.51%

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不过从周线结构来看

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哈纳指仍然运行在无十二十周均线下方

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周线级别尚未真正转强

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本周的反弹更多是情绪修复与衍生品结构推动

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并非是趋势反转的确认

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所以下周还有待观察

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标普500指数日线呈现强力修复

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虽然面临上方多条短期均线缠绕

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但是多头在6800点关口呢

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展现出非常强烈的抵抗意志

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今天指数成功收复了50日均线

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正在反复测试

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并且呢试图站稳上方阻力区间

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不过需要注意的是

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今天的涨幅里有很大一部分是虚假买盘

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是由空头回补和做市三的对冲买入呃

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所带来的

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而不是真使得基于看好未来的长期资金入场

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所以呢下周一或者下周二

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当衍生品结算的尘埃落定

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这个美股市场仍可能面临回踩

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6800点的压力

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简单说一下个股

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英特尔近期连续走低

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题为英特尔代工最后的机会深度分析

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文章

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内容称英特尔代工业务已经陷入了结构性困境

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嗯公司去年四季度巨亏25亿美元

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至今缺乏重量级外部客户

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投资节奏过快

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终端需求释放不足

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就形成了高投入

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低利用率

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继续烧钱的恶性循环

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18A制成在技术参数上具备竞争力

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但是真正的短板在于生态和客户信任

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先进制程并不是只拼晶体管密度

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更拼量率

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IP生态设计工具以及量产的稳定性啊

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这些都是英特尔哈所缺乏的公司

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必须要在2026年到2027年期间

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拿下苹果英伟达的大订单来完成市场背书

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否则的话呢

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一旦地缘政治窗口期关闭

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美国政府补贴退波

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或者是资本市场的耐心耗尽

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那英特尔代工就有可能面临战略收缩嗯

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牙膏厂内部问题大家都知道

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但是作为美国国企

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腰杆子就是硬哈

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还有个成长老四处化缘

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虽然我已经不持有这只股票了

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但是也不能够过度的看空

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因为政策维度与产业安全属性之下呃

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这决定英特尔不会轻易倒下的

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数据中心概念股今天全线走低

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call wave日内更是一度暴跌13%

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根据business inside的报道

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AI数据中心投资巨头blue our capital

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没能够为嗯coo wave在滨州的一个数据中心项目

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筹到预期的40亿美元债务融资

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放贷机构对这种重资产

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高杠杆的模式已经感到不耐烦了哈

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不愿提供大额融资

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此前甲骨文牵头的380亿美元

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数据中心债务分销呢也遇到市场的这个冷待呃

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随后就是又增发股票

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又发债

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筹集了500亿美元

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稳定资产负债表

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COVIVER未来也极可能采取类似的融资路径呃

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就随时可能会宣布增发债券或者是股票

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英伟达之前给的那20亿美元根本就不够了

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转手又还给英伟达买显卡了

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这说明一个趋势就是AI需求仍然强劲

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但是融资环境已经开始边际收紧了

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不过呢我认为嗯

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COVIA股价的这个短期下跌

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仍然是逢低买入的机会

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这个公司的核心价值不只是算力租赁商

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而是英伟达的战略工具

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是达子的表外嗯

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这个云服务商和债务白手套嘛

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一方面

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COVID那一套以芯片换贷款再买芯片的模式呢

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放大了英伟达的GPU销量杠杆

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极大加速了英伟达产品的周转

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因为他此前提供了20亿美元支持

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本质上就是为了维持这一条生态链啊

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另一个方面

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几个科技巨头嗯

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微软

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谷歌

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苹果

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亚马逊等等

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他们既是英伟达的客户

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也是潜在的竞争对手

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因为他们搞自研芯片

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这些巨头们想摆脱对英伟达的依赖

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所以呢英伟达就通过扶持COVIANBS这些小弟们

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来确保市场上始终有一个完全依赖

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因为达GPU的渠道

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在不直接参与云竞争的情况之下

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实现对这个市场份额的深度掌控

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如果算力租用的渠道被几个嗯巨头垄断的话

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那英伟达的议价能力就会下降

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多几个

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像COVIVE这样的渠道

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英伟达呢就能够通过分配芯片的指挥棒

214
00:10:06,759 --> 00:10:09,120
来评议巨头们的话语权

215
00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,360
目前呢英伟达的BLACKWELL和下一代win架构芯片

216
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,570
依然还是供不应求的呃

217
00:10:15,570 --> 00:10:19,009
另外算力竞赛下半场的瓶颈不是芯片

218
00:10:19,009 --> 00:10:20,019
而是电力

219
00:10:20,019 --> 00:10:24,419
COVIV已经锁定了超过2.9几瓦的电力容量

220
00:10:24,419 --> 00:10:27,519
这种并网审批的先发优势

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00:10:27,519 --> 00:10:29,919
让后来者即便有钱买芯片

222
00:10:29,919 --> 00:10:31,899
也找不到插电的数据中心

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00:10:31,899 --> 00:10:35,000
所以呢至少在未来一两年内

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00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,080
口语仍然好

225
00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:37,250
日子可过的哈

226
00:10:37,250 --> 00:10:40,509
转折点可能会在2027年出现

227
00:10:40,509 --> 00:10:45,509
届时算力市场可能会从抢购期进入去库存期

228
00:10:45,509 --> 00:10:49,850
一旦英呃英伟达的芯片不再是稀缺资源

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00:10:49,850 --> 00:10:51,570
或者AI泡沫

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00:10:51,570 --> 00:10:53,549
哪怕只裂开一个小缝

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00:10:53,549 --> 00:10:56,350
COVIVE的极端债务驱动模式

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就会让他第一个倒下呃

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00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:04,460
所以他能否在硬件过时之前赚回足够的现金流

234
00:11:04,460 --> 00:11:05,740
覆盖在西哈

235
00:11:05,740 --> 00:11:08,360
是他的好日子能否延续的关键

236
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:09,639
最终结局嘛

237
00:11:09,639 --> 00:11:13,559
这公司要么就成功利用这两年的窗口期

238
00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:18,000
从GPU租赁3L级为AI工程化平台

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00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,370
就是成为继亚马逊呃

240
00:11:20,370 --> 00:11:22,629
AWS微软ASIR

241
00:11:22,629 --> 00:11:27,309
还有谷歌的GCP之后的第四大专业AI云

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00:11:27,309 --> 00:11:29,970
要么就是被英伟达收编呃

243
00:11:29,970 --> 00:11:31,818
如果2027年之后

244
00:11:31,818 --> 00:11:33,278
AI算力过剩

245
00:11:33,278 --> 00:11:34,899
call月估值大幅回调

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00:11:34,899 --> 00:11:37,078
因为大家就可能将它收购

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00:11:37,078 --> 00:11:40,399
正式把表外云给变回内部云

248
00:11:40,399 --> 00:11:44,110
完成从芯片三到系统上的闭环

249
00:11:44,110 --> 00:11:47,950
这个公司的高管疯狂卖股套现哈

250
00:11:47,950 --> 00:11:51,980
反映的正是他们对不可持续的高增长

251
00:11:51,980 --> 00:11:53,600
的一个清醒认知

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00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,340
他们不一定是觉得公司明天就会倒闭了

253
00:11:56,340 --> 00:11:58,340
但是他们肯定是深知

254
00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:02,600
现在的股价包含了太多的AI信仰溢价哈

255
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,990
所以这一批跟着公司

256
00:12:04,990 --> 00:12:08,500
从原来的挖矿工一路走过来的高管

257
00:12:08,500 --> 00:12:10,980
他们心态就是趁着现在还没出世

258
00:12:10,980 --> 00:12:13,840
先把这一辈子的钱给赚够是吧

259
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,589
联合创始人马克B在2月17号周二那天

260
00:12:17,589 --> 00:12:20,749
又以每股平均价91.7美元

261
00:12:20,749 --> 00:12:22,909
甩卖了16.66万股

262
00:12:22,909 --> 00:12:25,990
套现了1528万美元额

263
00:12:25,990 --> 00:12:29,539
那个CEO也是在加速的去卖

264
00:12:29,539 --> 00:12:31,259
财报发布前夕

265
00:12:31,259 --> 00:12:34,419
这么抛售肯定会削弱市场信心嘛

266
00:12:34,419 --> 00:12:36,379
更容易让大家感到不安

267
00:12:36,379 --> 00:12:39,818
所以这也可能加剧了今天的抛售压力

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00:12:39,818 --> 00:12:42,578
AAMD呢也在学习英伟达的做法

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00:12:42,578 --> 00:12:47,139
为初创公司3亿美元购新贷款提供担保

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00:12:47,139 --> 00:12:47,659
承诺

271
00:12:47,659 --> 00:12:50,259
没有客户的时候可以兜底租用芯片

272
00:12:50,259 --> 00:12:53,580
这个策略能够短期内快速推高销量哈

273
00:12:53,580 --> 00:12:57,700
但是也令AMD在有AI需求放缓的时候

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00:12:57,700 --> 00:12:59,539
会面临更大的风险敞口

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00:12:59,539 --> 00:13:01,879
不过从call wave的例子来看

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00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:05,350
在AI算力供需仍然偏紧阶段

277
00:13:05,350 --> 00:13:08,239
这种策略还是利大于弊的行

278
00:13:08,239 --> 00:13:10,259
今天我们就简单说到这里

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那祝大家周末愉快

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我们下次见拜拜

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