【UNRIVALED INVESTING】Meta暴跌1500亿，比尔阿克曼重仓抄底

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Meta股票市值损失约9%

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市值损失约1500亿美元

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其股票在第一季度财报后每股跌至610美元左右

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2026年财报

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稍微拉远一点看

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截至本年至今

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Meta走势基本持平

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该股在发布首季财报后略有下跌

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这让我感到意外

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当你看他们的财报结果

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这是个强劲的季度

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营收增长3.3%

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运营利润率增长30%

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40%以上的利润率，这40%以上的利润率包含

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他们在现实实验室领域投入数十亿美元

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再看财报数据

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净利润也增长了60%

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这些数据简直令人惊叹

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所以你看

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这就是强劲的季度表现

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然后像比尔·阿克曼

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这位亿万富翁投资者表示

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他基金的约10%投入

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近期买入Meta股票，称其估值极低

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指出这些股票近期见底

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其中几只股票被严重低估

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这让人不禁思考

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好吧

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他是否正确

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Meta是否被严重低估

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毕竟刚经历了强劲的季度

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但股价却下跌9%

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大致可能在

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你知道的

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这是我今早制作视频时的时间点

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现在让我们分析

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理解为何Meta股价下跌

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为何精明投资者会说

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这可能被严重低估

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我个人的结论是，我关注的大多数公司

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估值框架

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可能持平

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可能看跌

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通常我不给好评

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或我说

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当前处于低位区间

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具备强劲上涨潜力

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而这里的上涨潜力非常突出

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我认为Meta有很大机会

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符合这一特征

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这就是为什么你拥有

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你知道的

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精明的亿万富翁们说

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是的

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这是一只极度廉价的股票

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所以让我们分析一下

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我是丹尼尔

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您正在观看《无与伦比投资》

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如果您喜欢教育类投资内容

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请务必点个赞

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点击订阅按钮

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现在让我们继续

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我们从Meta看到了什么

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嗯

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有一点

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空头会迅速抓住的数据点

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就是

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天啊

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家庭日活跃用户数

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这涵盖所有Meta的应用

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Instagram

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Facebook

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你知道的

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Reels等所有内容

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他们表示

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哦

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实际上环比下降了

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天啊

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这标志着末日来临

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对于Facebook而言

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并非如此

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这主要受互联网

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伊朗地区的动荡影响

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这是管理层所述内容

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如果有的话

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我认为需要了解这一背景

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Instagram和Facebook的日均及月均活跃用户

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其核心收入驱动指标屡创新高

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两款应用的用户参与度

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这一点至关重要

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因为这是业务的生命线，管理层也强调

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管理层表示

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是的

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我们依然健康如初

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您可以在财务数据中看到

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您可以在基本面中看到

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这不是空中楼阁的指标

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您可以看到广告曝光量数据

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你知道吗

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跨越他们的平台到第十九层

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过去几个季度增速显著加快

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去年增长了5%

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现在增长了19%

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这种增速简直疯狂

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就他们投放更多广告的能力而言

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基于更高的曝光量

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更多人开始关注

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同时还要考虑更高的定价

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我说

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这就是这些财务数据

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简直

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让大多数人脑洞大开

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我说

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通常当你像

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哦对啊

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我要将供应量提升20%

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你不能突然

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哦

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突然就能提高收费

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而这正是他们在做的

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去年定价上涨了10%

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现在接近12%

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在我看来

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反映了几个不同的动态因素

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其中之一就是人工智能革命

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还有更多关于这方面的内容需要讨论

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但如果你有超过30亿人使用

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你知道的，meta应用家族

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这就是用户聚集的地方

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所有新创业者都在说创业从未如此简单

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创建产品从未如此容易

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你知道的

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例如

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我是闪视的联合创始人，可免费分析全球企业

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利用最先进的

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人工智能模型

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查看下方链接

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可生成报告

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可提取meta视频

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如果你有兴趣让AI帮你分析

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所以这些企业会说

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如何触达用户

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如果meta平台有30亿以上用户

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好吧

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那么

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所有新兴企业

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所有

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你知道需要触达这些消费者的企业

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好的

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这将成为一个自然的出口渠道

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可以说这是谷歌和Meta争夺的两大阵地之一

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你知道的

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这个受众群体要听你说

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我因为AI打造了这个了不起的东西

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所以你从数据中看到了这一点

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你看到广告展示量和价格的惊人增长

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这就是收入增长30%以上的原因

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这也是股价下跌的原因

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因为大家可能在想

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等等，30%以上的增长

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惊人的利润率

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数十亿美元的自由现金流

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哇

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为什么股价在贬值

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为什么股价停滞不前

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关键因素之一是管理层可能缺乏节制地花钱

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他们提到正在上调预期支出

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资本支出从上季度末的约1250亿美元

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这是他们全年预期

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现在上调至

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假设

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约1300亿

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50亿美元

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增加100亿美元

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并且继续加大支出

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因为成本在上涨

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大家都在疯狂抢购内存组件

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还有人说

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我们需要建设更多数据中心

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需要更多服务器

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而且说实话，很多方面

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我们需要为各种AI产品增加容量

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我们稍后会详细讨论

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这就是投资者感到担忧的原因，你们

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正在做出更大承诺

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这可以说是双重打击

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因为不仅宣布

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是的

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我们有巨额投入

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我们将消耗所有自由现金流

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绝大部分资金

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这些与AI相关的资本支出

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你知道的

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输入成本在上涨

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数据中心

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所有这些组件

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但管理层表示

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哦，是的

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顺便说一句

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因为我们是

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这正是首席财务官的原话

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我们显著地

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你知道的

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低估了他们的计算需求

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想想管理层之前预期的

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嘿

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我们将花费超过一百亿美元

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我们看到了收益

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他们说正在加速扩展

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这就是我们所处的

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我们处于

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我们低估了计算需求

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这是首席财务官所说

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因此

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他们不得不签订多年期云服务和基建采购协议

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仅本季度就增加了1070亿美元的合同承诺

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这来自

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就在本季度他们表示

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我们需要在未来一两年内增加1070亿美元

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这让投资者感到不安

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天啊

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我的意思是

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作为扎克伯格都发疯了

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我们将进入大规模烧钱状态

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我们已经看到

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Meta已在资产负债表上新增500亿美元债务

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这会不会完全失控

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这种恐惧感

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我认为这就是原因之一

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为何股价今日暴跌近十分之一

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但他们的AI投资并非空中楼阁

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就在本月早些时候

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Meta宣布

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是的

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顺便说一句

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看看我们能做什么

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我们可以发布自有AI模型

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我们的AI模型与ChatGPT相当竞争

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这太惊人了

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ChatGPT估值达千亿美元

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而Meta回应

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我们能与你竞争

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除了你

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我们

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我们不

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我们平台已有30亿以上用户

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这是令人着迷的发展

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想想这一点

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这就是我

250
00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:55,240
你知道一点五

251
00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,519
万亿市值的开放市场

252
00:08:58,519 --> 00:08:59,360
人工智能正在发展

253
00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,470
你知道八百亿九百亿

254
00:09:02,470 --> 00:09:04,230
而这里Meta说对啊

255
00:09:04,230 --> 00:09:04,590
我们可以

256
00:09:04,590 --> 00:09:05,330
我们可以构建它

257
00:09:05,330 --> 00:09:06,909
而且我们已经有了分发渠道

258
00:09:06,909 --> 00:09:08,460
所以人们可以使用它

259
00:09:08,460 --> 00:09:13,440
这非常有趣，现在Meta正与谷歌并肩竞争

260
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:17,210
这可能是他们见过的最佳AI模型之一

261
00:09:17,210 --> 00:09:20,289
至少根据LM Marina

262
00:09:20,929 --> 00:09:28,379
那么为什么Meta要全力押注AI进行巨额资本支出

263
00:09:28,379 --> 00:09:28,679
嗯

264
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:30,860
首要且显而易见的原因是AI参与度

265
00:09:30,860 --> 00:09:32,399
我意思是他们在关注这个

266
00:09:32,399 --> 00:09:33,720
他们自己也在思考

267
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,960
自然的商业逻辑是

268
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:37,980
我们可以让更多人使用产品

269
00:09:37,980 --> 00:09:38,700
或者

270
00:09:38,700 --> 00:09:41,799
算法提供更好的推荐

271
00:09:41,799 --> 00:09:45,210
让用户停留更久

272
00:09:45,210 --> 00:09:46,610
最终

273
00:09:46,610 --> 00:09:47,830
在这里你可以看到

274
00:09:47,830 --> 00:09:48,970
他们提到我们

275
00:09:48,970 --> 00:09:50,230
加拿大Facebook视频

276
00:09:50,230 --> 00:09:53,110
观看时长增长了9%

277
00:09:53,110 --> 00:09:53,830
你知道时间

278
00:09:53,830 --> 00:09:56,570
拥有数十亿用户的平台真是令人惊叹

279
00:09:56,570 --> 00:09:57,590
可以说嘿

280
00:09:57,590 --> 00:09:58,549
我们调整了算法

281
00:09:58,549 --> 00:10:00,960
然后获得了超过10%的增长

282
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,860
还有自然的延伸应用

283
00:10:03,860 --> 00:10:07,818
想想日本创作的所有内容

284
00:10:07,818 --> 00:10:09,418
之前在美国或加拿大的人可能无法了解

285
00:10:09,418 --> 00:10:12,679
因为没有自动翻译

286
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,220
现在有了自动翻译和配音

287
00:10:14,220 --> 00:10:17,139
所以

288
00:10:17,139 --> 00:10:17,519
再次我们正在构建真正生态系统

289
00:10:17,519 --> 00:10:19,970
一个真正的网络平台

290
00:10:19,970 --> 00:10:25,679
再次更容易实现跨地区协作

291
00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:26,139
利用

292
00:10:26,139 --> 00:10:29,700
AI或更精准的广告投放

293
00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:32,159
你到底在寻找什么

294
00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:33,690
这不仅仅是某种

295
00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:36,289
我们的算法会说

296
00:10:36,289 --> 00:10:36,509
哦

297
00:10:36,509 --> 00:10:39,210
这个人通常购买这类商品

298
00:10:39,210 --> 00:10:43,330
也许这是更了解用户的AI

299
00:10:43,330 --> 00:10:45,429
你知道我们实际上认为这个产品

300
00:10:45,429 --> 00:10:46,730
你知道这个小幅上升

301
00:10:46,730 --> 00:10:48,360
我认为这就是他们看到的

302
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:53,328
所以你看这种参与度提升直接支撑他们的商业模式

303
00:10:53,328 --> 00:10:58,830
但我认为这只是扎克伯格下这个大赌注的原因之一

304
00:10:58,830 --> 00:10:59,230
人工智能

305
00:10:59,230 --> 00:11:03,029
我认为这很大程度上与他对人工智能赋能的信念相关

306
00:11:03,029 --> 00:11:04,629
他在

307
00:11:04,629 --> 00:11:05,879
你知道在他的

308
00:11:05,879 --> 00:11:09,779
你知道在电话会议中说这不是人工智能取代人类

309
00:11:09,779 --> 00:11:12,220
这是人工智能赋能人类

310
00:11:12,220 --> 00:11:14,659
他正计划将这些最前沿的

311
00:11:14,659 --> 00:11:20,190
人工智能模型整合到所有应用中

312
00:11:20,190 --> 00:11:23,149
所以如果你有一个个人

313
00:11:23,149 --> 00:11:24,850
人工智能助手或企业

314
00:11:24,850 --> 00:11:30,529
数以千万计的商家在Meta平台上

315
00:11:31,570 --> 00:11:33,330
现在可以利用

316
00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:34,529
人工智能

317
00:11:34,850 --> 00:11:36,950
这是一个非常有趣的发展动态

318
00:11:36,950 --> 00:11:43,009
也许能更轻松触达客户或服务客户或分析广告活动

319
00:11:43,009 --> 00:11:44,679
或者

320
00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:52,019
也许扎克伯格看到这并认为下一阶段将从智能手机转向

321
00:11:52,019 --> 00:11:58,340
你知道我拥有人工智能伙伴伴随我的人生旅程

322
00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:00,840
并帮助我实现任何目标

323
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,499
谁比谁更了解你的生命历程

324
00:12:03,499 --> 00:12:06,899
除了看到你上传的照片

325
00:12:06,899 --> 00:12:09,960
这里可能存在大量参与方式

326
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,340
扎克伯格可能在考虑

327
00:12:11,340 --> 00:12:13,700
下一次革命可能是

328
00:12:13,700 --> 00:12:15,710
可能始于Meta

329
00:12:15,710 --> 00:12:17,570
可能不再是手机

330
00:12:17,570 --> 00:12:19,649
而是一个全新的操作系统

331
00:12:19,649 --> 00:12:21,429
这个全新的生活操作系统

332
00:12:21,429 --> 00:12:22,409
基于

333
00:12:22,409 --> 00:12:24,570
人工智能融入生活

334
00:12:24,570 --> 00:12:27,500
我认为这就是他看到的潜力

335
00:12:27,500 --> 00:12:29,759
这就是他押下重注的原因

336
00:12:29,759 --> 00:12:30,559
我说

337
00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:30,759
看

338
00:12:30,759 --> 00:12:32,559
显然有很多

339
00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:32,860
很多

340
00:12:32,860 --> 00:12:35,698
很多迹象表明人工智能不仅提升参与度

341
00:12:35,698 --> 00:12:36,538
还助力了

342
00:12:36,538 --> 00:12:38,099
他们提到的营收数据

343
00:12:38,099 --> 00:12:44,059
超过八百万广告主在Meta平台使用至少一个

344
00:12:44,059 --> 00:12:46,879
生成式人工智能工具进行创意

345
00:12:46,879 --> 00:12:49,049
用于广告制作

346
00:12:49,049 --> 00:12:55,269
他们提到使用视频生成广告的转化率提升3%

347
00:12:55,269 --> 00:12:58,629
再次利用人工智能制作这些视频

348
00:12:58,629 --> 00:13:03,899
同时还在谈论为客户优化价值

349
00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:04,539
你知道吗

350
00:13:04,539 --> 00:13:11,159
因为AI可以帮助商家找到更好的生成方式

351
00:13:11,159 --> 00:13:13,080
也许是以点击量为指标

352
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,710
也许是以产品销量为准

353
00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:15,990
我们可以说我们可以帮助你

354
00:13:15,990 --> 00:13:20,379
这已成为Meta年均200亿美元的业务

355
00:13:20,379 --> 00:13:22,860
他们还拥有100亿美元的合作伙伴计划

356
00:13:22,860 --> 00:13:23,679
这是一个从电商视角

357
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:28,230
持续增长超过两倍的商业模式

358
00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:31,809
有很多迹象表明AI正在显现

359
00:13:31,809 --> 00:13:33,210
不仅提升用户参与度

360
00:13:33,210 --> 00:13:36,899
还可能彻底改变用户基础

361
00:13:36,899 --> 00:13:41,179
在日常使用产品的方式上

362
00:13:41,179 --> 00:13:45,078
从收入变现角度来看

363
00:13:45,078 --> 00:13:47,318
还有这种孤注一掷的策略

364
00:13:47,318 --> 00:13:47,938
也就是说

365
00:13:47,938 --> 00:13:48,479
你知道吗

366
00:13:48,479 --> 00:13:54,769
Meta的AI眼镜日活用户年增三倍

367
00:13:54,769 --> 00:14:00,059
这就是那种革命性变化

368
00:14:00,059 --> 00:14:03,700
说实话我觉得这会无处不在

369
00:14:03,700 --> 00:14:07,240
每个人都会拥有某种智能

370
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:12,830
分析你的现实环境并助你充分利用

371
00:14:12,830 --> 00:14:14,929
哦公交车来晚了

372
00:14:14,929 --> 00:14:18,860
哦水槽下面有东西坏了

373
00:14:18,860 --> 00:14:21,000
我可以告诉你该怎么做

374
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:22,799
我觉得这其实

375
00:14:22,799 --> 00:14:25,320
拥有它将具有变革性

376
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,480
这不仅仅是问答功能

377
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:28,200
没关系

378
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,129
我们开启Jeeves吧

379
00:14:30,129 --> 00:14:32,289
现在他就在身边

380
00:14:32,289 --> 00:14:35,610
或者这个AI助手就在你身边

381
00:14:35,610 --> 00:14:41,318
我的意思是这不仅会全天候运行

382
00:14:41,759 --> 00:14:43,599
甚至有一本AI相关的书

383
00:14:43,599 --> 00:14:46,178
几年前我读过一本叫《After On》

384
00:14:46,178 --> 00:14:47,490
挺有意思的

385
00:14:47,490 --> 00:14:51,470
但我觉得这不仅会无处不在且全天候

386
00:14:51,470 --> 00:14:52,990
当它全天候运行时

387
00:14:52,990 --> 00:14:54,610
计算需求会大幅增加

388
00:14:54,610 --> 00:14:57,909
这就是所有人看到的发展方向

389
00:14:57,909 --> 00:14:59,950
这就是我们前进的方向

390
00:14:59,950 --> 00:15:03,809
AI将不断感知并理解这个世界

391
00:15:03,809 --> 00:15:07,828
因此需要足够的算力处理

392
00:15:08,149 --> 00:15:10,788
现在这是重大赌注

393
00:15:10,788 --> 00:15:12,428
我同意比尔·阿克曼的观点吗

394
00:15:12,428 --> 00:15:14,149
认为这价格低得离谱

395
00:15:14,149 --> 00:15:14,828
总体而言

396
00:15:14,828 --> 00:15:16,100
这就是我的看法

397
00:15:16,100 --> 00:15:18,179
但在此声明

398
00:15:18,179 --> 00:15:19,879
以上内容不构成财务建议

399
00:15:19,879 --> 00:15:21,299
我只是分享一点关于

400
00:15:21,299 --> 00:15:22,700
你知道我的个人观点

401
00:15:22,700 --> 00:15:26,580
然后还有快速推荐

402
00:15:26,580 --> 00:15:28,110
就在今天早上

403
00:15:28,110 --> 00:15:29,990
失败了那个高级版

404
00:15:29,990 --> 00:15:31,090
不可替代会员写道

405
00:15:31,090 --> 00:15:32,029
我爱这个会员服务

406
00:15:32,029 --> 00:15:34,669
我希望我能继续留在这个社区

407
00:15:34,669 --> 00:15:36,370
这紧随亨利W所写

408
00:15:36,370 --> 00:15:38,570
我已订阅这个频道三年了

409
00:15:38,570 --> 00:15:39,090
现在

410
00:15:39,090 --> 00:15:40,149
首先最重要的是

411
00:15:40,149 --> 00:15:40,870
我想向你致谢

412
00:15:40,870 --> 00:15:45,090
你不仅帮助我实现了投资的优异回报

413
00:15:51,330 --> 00:15:51,730
所以

414
00:15:51,730 --> 00:15:53,409
如果你在寻找优质投资思路

415
00:15:54,570 --> 00:15:56,649
查看不可替代投资平台

416
00:15:56,649 --> 00:15:59,730
顺便说一句我知道我分享个人经历

417
00:15:59,730 --> 00:16:01,330
每次买卖时

418
00:16:01,330 --> 00:16:04,210
顺便说因为有些

419
00:16:04,210 --> 00:16:06,549
在近期关于估值的视频中

420
00:16:06,549 --> 00:16:08,830
这对部分成员非常有帮助

421
00:16:08,830 --> 00:16:10,350
我现在推出

422
00:16:10,350 --> 00:16:12,679
今天就是最后一天

423
00:16:12,679 --> 00:16:14,639
因为已进行到三月最后一周

424
00:16:14,639 --> 00:16:15,740
四月最后一周

425
00:16:15,740 --> 00:16:18,190
今天是四月最后一天

426
00:16:18,190 --> 00:16:20,370
我将为新会员提供

427
00:16:20,370 --> 00:16:21,230
不可替代

428
00:16:21,230 --> 00:16:23,470
你可以获得这份估值课程

429
00:16:23,470 --> 00:16:25,590
只需注册后发邮件给我

430
00:16:25,590 --> 00:16:29,139
我随后会授予你访问权限

431
00:16:29,419 --> 00:16:30,399
快去查看吧

432
00:16:30,399 --> 00:16:31,220
如果你对此感兴趣

433
00:16:31,220 --> 00:16:33,559
这总结了我的学习经历

434
00:16:33,559 --> 00:16:37,620
学习如何从卖方视角估值公司

435
00:16:37,620 --> 00:16:40,519
所以分析Meta

436
00:16:40,519 --> 00:16:41,580
为何表现停滞

437
00:16:41,580 --> 00:16:43,600
我认为其中一个因素是

438
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,659
这种AI押注和冲击

439
00:16:45,659 --> 00:16:49,909
但我觉得更多是关于青少年诉讼的担忧

440
00:16:49,909 --> 00:16:50,690
确实存在

441
00:16:50,690 --> 00:16:52,960
有人进行类比说

442
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:58,580
Meta可能像我们时代的烟草

443
00:16:58,580 --> 00:16:59,700
不仅具有成瘾性

444
00:16:59,700 --> 00:17:02,460
而且未必对社会有益

445
00:17:02,460 --> 00:17:04,019
存在负面影响

446
00:17:04,019 --> 00:17:08,049
却没有明确说明

447
00:17:08,049 --> 00:17:11,730
对个人或社会的成本

448
00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:14,440
因此存在真正看到索赔的可能

449
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,059
我们已经看到多起索赔案例

450
00:17:16,059 --> 00:17:23,068
但他们确实在电话中指出这可能对财务报表造成重大影响

451
00:17:23,068 --> 00:17:25,669
所以我认为这是在说

452
00:17:25,669 --> 00:17:27,888
我们可能需要花费五到十

453
00:17:27,888 --> 00:17:30,128
或许高达疯狂数额

454
00:17:30,128 --> 00:17:31,489
五十亿美元

455
00:17:31,489 --> 00:17:35,489
投入数十亿美元处理这些诉讼

456
00:17:35,489 --> 00:17:39,148
我认为这确实值得我们理解这种动态

457
00:17:39,148 --> 00:17:41,819
这可能导致投资者

458
00:17:41,819 --> 00:17:43,349
你知道的

459
00:17:43,349 --> 00:17:45,490
对股票进行更低估值

460
00:17:45,490 --> 00:17:46,869
如果存在不确定性的话

461
00:17:46,869 --> 00:17:48,240
表述开放

462
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,259
青年条款

463
00:17:49,259 --> 00:17:50,880
你知道可能走向错误方向

464
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,970
因为Meta

465
00:17:52,970 --> 00:17:57,769
或可能影响新用户注册

466
00:17:57,769 --> 00:18:01,089
或影响算法效果

467
00:18:01,089 --> 00:18:03,839
比如无法有效产生收入

468
00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:06,740
我们面临这种不确定性阴影

469
00:18:06,740 --> 00:18:12,579
然后是我们在资本支出中看到的指数级增长

470
00:18:12,579 --> 00:18:13,220
你知道管理层

471
00:18:13,220 --> 00:18:13,579
表示

472
00:18:13,579 --> 00:18:13,839
是的

473
00:18:13,839 --> 00:18:16,809
已从四十亿增至七十亿美元

474
00:18:16,809 --> 00:18:18,930
我们预计接近一百三十亿

475
00:18:18,930 --> 00:18:21,390
我意思是这简直疯狂

476
00:18:21,390 --> 00:18:22,890
而仅此一季

477
00:18:22,890 --> 00:18:24,150
又将增加一零

478
00:18:24,150 --> 00:18:26,049
七在未来一年左右

479
00:18:26,049 --> 00:18:28,529
让我们进入财报部分

480
00:18:28,529 --> 00:18:31,390
阿克曼对这些股票的最新评论

481
00:18:31,390 --> 00:18:32,109
你知道的

482
00:18:32,109 --> 00:18:33,569
认为当前估值极度低廉

483
00:18:33,569 --> 00:18:35,279
或认为它们非常便宜

484
00:18:35,279 --> 00:18:39,079
让我们理解这种逻辑

485
00:18:39,500 --> 00:18:42,539
因为我倾向于同意确实很便宜

486
00:18:42,539 --> 00:18:44,980
至少这是我这样思考的

487
00:18:44,980 --> 00:18:47,740
或许'极度低廉'有些过头

488
00:18:47,740 --> 00:18:48,700
鉴于

489
00:18:48,700 --> 00:18:49,220
你知道的

490
00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:50,660
这些诉讼带来的阴影

491
00:18:50,660 --> 00:18:52,240
你知道这些诉讼

492
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:56,420
但看公司当前610美元每股

493
00:18:56,420 --> 00:18:57,500
约1.5万亿美元市值

494
00:18:57,500 --> 00:18:58,839
我意思是其营收增长令人惊叹

495
00:18:58,839 --> 00:19:03,659
回顾过去几年营收

496
00:19:03,659 --> 00:19:06,778
从850亿增至2000亿

497
00:19:06,778 --> 00:19:07,878
这简直难以置信

498
00:19:07,878 --> 00:19:12,538
今年我认为保守估计增长率为20%到30%

499
00:19:12,538 --> 00:19:14,439
他们刚公布了3.3%的增长

500
00:19:14,439 --> 00:19:16,799
所以你知道我们拭目以待

501
00:19:16,799 --> 00:19:19,759
顺便说一下这只是评估他们的

502
00:19:19,759 --> 00:19:20,240
你知道的

503
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:21,309
应用家族

504
00:19:21,309 --> 00:19:24,109
这完全没有聚焦

505
00:19:24,109 --> 00:19:27,990
这完全不认可他们的现实延迟

506
00:19:27,990 --> 00:19:30,630
这曾是个大资金黑洞

507
00:19:30,630 --> 00:19:32,869
你知道钱一直在往外流

508
00:19:32,869 --> 00:19:35,500
这是一项超高利润率的业务

509
00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:36,859
仅这项业务

510
00:19:36,859 --> 00:19:39,730
再次聚焦这一点

511
00:19:39,730 --> 00:19:40,869
忽略其他一切

512
00:19:40,869 --> 00:19:44,230
表明Meta估值约16倍市盈率

513
00:19:44,230 --> 00:19:46,490
这一核心业务的盈利

514
00:19:46,490 --> 00:19:50,509
这就是为什么你会看到极度低估的视角

515
00:19:50,509 --> 00:19:54,669
很少有公司能实现20%-30%增长

516
00:19:54,669 --> 00:19:56,460
却以16倍市盈率交易

517
00:19:56,460 --> 00:19:58,460
这就是其上涨的原因

518
00:19:58,460 --> 00:19:58,839
好的

519
00:19:58,839 --> 00:20:00,259
我理解

520
00:20:00,259 --> 00:20:06,529
但折扣在于你无法获得1000亿美元

521
00:20:06,529 --> 00:20:08,929
作为股东可分配给你

522
00:20:08,929 --> 00:20:10,848
实际情况是并且要记住

523
00:20:10,848 --> 00:20:12,328
这是假设性股票估值

524
00:20:12,328 --> 00:20:13,388
可能上涨或下跌

525
00:20:13,388 --> 00:20:14,769
很大程度取决于市场情绪

526
00:20:14,769 --> 00:20:16,450
很大程度取决于宏观因素

527
00:20:16,450 --> 00:20:18,769
如果油价突然飙升至150美元

528
00:20:18,769 --> 00:20:23,549
我认为这会影响Meta这样的广告公司

529
00:20:23,549 --> 00:20:25,150
这一点需要重视

530
00:20:26,549 --> 00:20:31,319
同时有人认为Meta处于劣势

531
00:20:31,319 --> 00:20:35,599
相比Alphabet或亚马逊

532
00:20:35,599 --> 00:20:39,730
他们正在投入大量资本x建设基础设施

533
00:20:39,730 --> 00:20:43,630
以服务云客户

534
00:20:43,630 --> 00:20:46,450
他们是为第三方客户提供超大规模服务

535
00:20:46,450 --> 00:20:47,490
而Meta

536
00:20:47,490 --> 00:20:50,240
则是构建自身用户生态

537
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:51,869
扩展到他们的

538
00:20:51,869 --> 00:20:52,569
你知道的

539
00:20:52,569 --> 00:20:57,130
不同应用和使用AI贯穿其中

540
00:20:57,130 --> 00:21:00,380
在一种情况下是

541
00:21:00,380 --> 00:21:03,839
在一种情况下你是在为第三方客户投资

542
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:05,380
你知道的

543
00:21:05,380 --> 00:21:06,319
亚马逊说

544
00:21:06,319 --> 00:21:07,940
我们将大力投资云服务

545
00:21:07,940 --> 00:21:09,349
因为

546
00:21:09,349 --> 00:21:12,960
这些客户需要它同样适用于谷歌

547
00:21:13,989 --> 00:21:15,588
这实际上是在说

548
00:21:15,588 --> 00:21:18,229
我们必须确保为自身做出这项投资

549
00:21:18,229 --> 00:21:23,680
基于我们想要去的方向并思考其可能带来的革命性影响

550
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,670
你知道他们未来几年的增长率

551
00:21:25,670 --> 00:21:26,269
再次强调

552
00:21:26,269 --> 00:21:27,970
我对这个范围做了较大调整

553
00:21:27,970 --> 00:21:29,829
这是一项广告业务

554
00:21:29,829 --> 00:21:30,990
从根本上说

555
00:21:30,990 --> 00:21:33,769
因此三十个百分点以上的增长

556
00:21:33,769 --> 00:21:35,910
可能会显著放缓

557
00:21:35,910 --> 00:21:36,549
这就是原因所在

558
00:21:36,549 --> 00:21:37,638
在最悲观情况下

559
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,920
同时假设五年后市盈率倍数为15倍

560
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:48,099
如果你能够

561
00:21:48,099 --> 00:21:51,599
这也假设该业务线存在部分利润率压缩

562
00:21:51,599 --> 00:21:53,579
从这个角度看

563
00:21:53,579 --> 00:21:55,180
这仍然能

564
00:21:55,180 --> 00:21:56,619
即使折现后

565
00:21:56,619 --> 00:21:56,940
假设

566
00:21:56,940 --> 00:22:01,319
该应用家族业务线自由现金流增长50%

567
00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:02,779
大致估算

568
00:22:02,779 --> 00:22:05,180
仍可粗略计算

569
00:22:05,180 --> 00:22:07,440
长期回报率约7%左右

570
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:08,819
在最悲观情形下

571
00:22:08,819 --> 00:22:11,549
这其实相当合理

572
00:22:11,549 --> 00:22:13,890
处于较高区间

573
00:22:13,890 --> 00:22:15,410
这稍显激进

574
00:22:15,410 --> 00:22:16,650
假设增速接近两位数

575
00:22:16,650 --> 00:22:17,589
类型增长

576
00:22:17,589 --> 00:22:18,490
20到25

577
00:22:18,490 --> 00:22:18,930
5倍

578
00:22:18,930 --> 00:22:19,849
收益倍数

579
00:22:19,849 --> 00:22:20,609
嗯

580
00:22:20,609 --> 00:22:24,670
那么回报率可达100%至300%

581
00:22:24,670 --> 00:22:29,230
且因可积累的现金对投资者更有利

582
00:22:30,349 --> 00:22:31,230
回购与分红

583
00:22:31,230 --> 00:22:34,059
我认为有必要认识到在最新

584
00:22:34,059 --> 00:22:34,500
你知道的

585
00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:35,460
季度财报中

586
00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:37,799
确实暂停了股票回购

587
00:22:37,799 --> 00:22:39,388
尽管股价

588
00:22:39,388 --> 00:22:42,839
有时略有波动甚至下跌

589
00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:44,680
我认为管理层非常

590
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:49,480
我们清楚所有财务资源都将投入其中

591
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:50,220
AI赌注

592
00:22:50,220 --> 00:22:56,019
我认为扎克伯格确实意识到存在创造超级智能的可能性

593
00:22:56,019 --> 00:22:58,719
他多年来一直在与DeepMind竞争

594
00:22:58,719 --> 00:23:01,078
我曾读到他们曾试图

595
00:23:01,078 --> 00:23:01,979
后来居上

596
00:23:01,979 --> 00:23:05,159
在AlphaGo发布前超越DeepMind

597
00:23:05,159 --> 00:23:07,388
你知道他们正在取得突破的时候

598
00:23:07,388 --> 00:23:09,608
所以他一直在关注这件事

599
00:23:09,608 --> 00:23:10,709
我觉得他有了新计划

600
00:23:10,709 --> 00:23:12,829
你知道有个新团队在运作

601
00:23:12,829 --> 00:23:14,450
你知道超级智能

602
00:23:14,450 --> 00:23:16,230
它不再在laccoon平台

603
00:23:16,230 --> 00:23:16,869
所以你有

604
00:23:18,029 --> 00:23:23,078
你知道在实现超级智能目标上机会更大

605
00:23:23,078 --> 00:23:24,179
我自己也不清楚

606
00:23:24,179 --> 00:23:25,959
有些人可能认为这是超级智能

607
00:23:25,959 --> 00:23:26,598
像元宇宙

608
00:23:26,598 --> 00:23:27,199
天啊

609
00:23:27,199 --> 00:23:28,589
这有点可怕

610
00:23:28,589 --> 00:23:30,430
而我认为他在说

611
00:23:30,430 --> 00:23:35,579
确实存在元宇宙不仅仅是广告平台

612
00:23:35,579 --> 00:23:37,079
未来社交网络的可能性

613
00:23:37,079 --> 00:23:40,019
我们有机会打造更伟大的事物

614
00:23:40,019 --> 00:23:42,460
结合超人类AI

615
00:23:42,460 --> 00:23:47,000
赋能全球每个人的人生旅程

616
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,539
这就是他押注的未来

617
00:23:50,539 --> 00:23:52,759
你知道资本投入

618
00:23:52,759 --> 00:23:54,859
你知道正在指数增长

619
00:23:54,859 --> 00:23:56,940
希望这段视频对你有帮助

620
00:23:56,940 --> 00:23:58,980
考虑投资Meta股票

621
00:23:58,980 --> 00:23:59,539
你知道

622
00:23:59,539 --> 00:24:02,859
如果你相信扎克伯格的这个赌注

623
00:24:02,859 --> 00:24:07,140
我建议你应该跟随比尔·阿克曼

624
00:24:07,140 --> 00:24:07,819
然后说

625
00:24:07,819 --> 00:24:09,619
这支股票严重被低估

626
00:24:09,619 --> 00:24:11,519
但如果你担心

627
00:24:11,519 --> 00:24:13,059
AI可能影响业务

628
00:24:13,059 --> 00:24:16,480
或者担心法律诉讼

629
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,690
这会让你犹豫

630
00:24:18,690 --> 00:24:19,910
你知道并说

631
00:24:19,910 --> 00:24:21,480
或许要降低估值

632
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,640
这些都是需要考虑的

633
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:22,920
我说

634
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,240
不久前

635
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:25,859
经济放缓时

636
00:24:25,859 --> 00:24:28,319
应用家族实际下降1%

637
00:24:28,319 --> 00:24:32,119
你可以看到在2022年

638
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,039
确实如此

639
00:24:33,039 --> 00:24:34,660
希望这段视频对你有帮助

640
00:24:34,660 --> 00:24:35,819
非常感谢观看

641
00:24:35,819 --> 00:24:36,779
无与伦比

642
00:24:36,779 --> 00:24:37,579
投资

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