BV1R1j465Ex9 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:06,139 大家好 2 00:00:06,139 --> 00:00:08,560 今天是6月20日星期六 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:10,759 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:10,759 --> 00:00:13,720 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,199 随后分析热门股票 6 00:00:17,469 --> 00:00:20,070 去通胀蓄势破灭 7 00:00:20,070 --> 00:00:23,030 德银全面上调通胀预期 8 00:00:23,030 --> 00:00:26,225 美联储加息大幕将启 9 00:00:28,739 --> 00:00:31,440 德银正式向鹰派投降 10 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,579 面对顽固的通胀和新任美联储 11 00:00:36,929 --> 00:00:39,210 德意志银行正式投降 12 00:00:39,210 --> 00:00:44,250 彻底扭转此前的货币政策预测 13 00:00:44,740 --> 00:00:48,520 该行预计美联储将在2026年加息两次 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,659 共50个基点 15 00:00:51,149 --> 00:00:54,750 将联邦基金利率推高至4.1% 16 00:00:54,750 --> 00:00:59,259 且不排除在7月提前加息的可能 17 00:00:59,619 --> 00:01:03,170 重新定价宏观高息环境 18 00:01:03,170 --> 00:01:04,569 德因强调 19 00:01:04,569 --> 00:01:07,090 市场必须迅速重新定价 20 00:01:07,090 --> 00:01:10,739 更长时间更高利率的宏观环境 21 00:01:10,739 --> 00:01:15,060 此前因美联储过度保险式降息 22 00:01:15,060 --> 00:01:18,978 而建立的宽松预期将被打破 23 00:01:18,978 --> 00:01:23,969 固定收益市场将面临重新估值的直接冲击 24 00:01:23,969 --> 00:01:26,689 对利率敏感的资产类别 25 00:01:26,689 --> 00:01:30,609 需警惕短期内的剧烈波动 26 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,629 握时鹰派首秀打消疑虑 27 00:01:36,629 --> 00:01:39,409 此前德银迟迟未调整预测 28 00:01:39,409 --> 00:01:43,310 主要受伊朗战争不确定性和落实政策 29 00:01:43,310 --> 00:01:45,090 立场不明的影响 30 00:01:45,090 --> 00:01:49,109 然而6月会议整体呈现鹰派倾向 31 00:01:49,109 --> 00:01:51,030 卧室明确表态 32 00:01:51,030 --> 00:01:53,069 通胀是一种选择 33 00:01:53,069 --> 00:01:56,140 这一强硬措辞被德银视为 34 00:01:56,140 --> 00:01:59,579 修复价格稳定的强烈信号 35 00:01:59,579 --> 00:02:02,900 直接触发了预测转向 36 00:02:03,060 --> 00:02:06,019 去通胀蓄势全面动摇 37 00:02:06,019 --> 00:02:07,180 德银指出 38 00:02:07,180 --> 00:02:10,419 美国的去通胀蓄势已经动摇 39 00:02:10,419 --> 00:02:12,769 通胀压力具有广泛性 40 00:02:12,769 --> 00:02:16,740 不仅限于关税和能源等一次性因素 41 00:02:16,740 --> 00:02:17,759 基于此 42 00:02:17,759 --> 00:02:21,360 该行将2026年底和2027年的 43 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,110 核心PCE通胀预期 44 00:02:24,110 --> 00:02:28,870 分别大幅上调至3.2%和2.5% 45 00:02:28,870 --> 00:02:32,550 凸显通胀极强的粘性 46 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,319 基准预测年内两次加息 47 00:02:37,319 --> 00:02:39,460 基于通胀粘性 48 00:02:39,460 --> 00:02:41,889 德银更新基准预测 49 00:02:41,889 --> 00:02:46,330 美联储将在今年9月和12月分别加息 50 00:02:46,330 --> 00:02:49,500 依次累计加息50个基点 51 00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:53,379 使联邦基金利率升至4.1% 52 00:02:53,379 --> 00:02:59,080 此后美联储将在2027年全年按兵不动 53 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:03,490 直到2028年上半年才会降息50个基点 54 00:03:03,490 --> 00:03:05,849 缓慢回归中性水平 55 00:03:07,169 --> 00:03:10,370 7月提前加息的激进风险 56 00:03:10,370 --> 00:03:11,719 得银警告 57 00:03:11,719 --> 00:03:13,419 在鹰派一侧 58 00:03:13,419 --> 00:03:18,289 美联储的行动可能比基准情形更加激进 59 00:03:18,289 --> 00:03:22,680 由于握实已公开承诺修复价格稳定 60 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,939 若委员会不立即收紧政策 61 00:03:29,060 --> 00:03:35,060 因此不排除在7月会议上就提前采取行动 62 00:03:35,060 --> 00:03:37,860 而非等到9月 63 00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:43,629 鸽派下行风险依然存在 64 00:03:43,629 --> 00:03:48,729 德银同时列出了可能使政策路行偏向宽 65 00:03:48,729 --> 00:03:50,870 松的下行风险 66 00:03:50,870 --> 00:03:52,849 伊朗局势缓和 67 00:03:52,849 --> 00:03:54,669 导致油价下跌 68 00:03:54,669 --> 00:03:58,579 夏季劳动力市场可能出现季节性走弱 69 00:03:58,579 --> 00:04:04,360 以及关税对月度通胀数据的推升效应正在减弱 70 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:09,479 这些因素或许能为美联储在应对通胀压力时 71 00:04:09,479 --> 00:04:12,509 提供更大操作空间 72 00:04:12,830 --> 00:04:15,889 政策转向的逻辑延伸 73 00:04:15,889 --> 00:04:19,110 德因此次立场转变并非突然 74 00:04:19,110 --> 00:04:23,399 而是此前一系列研究的逻辑延伸 75 00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:26,920 该行此前已发布多篇报告 76 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,408 系统性质疑美国去通胀趋势 77 00:04:30,408 --> 00:04:33,870 指出通胀压力广泛分布于各类比 78 00:04:33,870 --> 00:04:34,670 并认为 79 00:04:34,670 --> 00:04:38,209 美联储去年的连续降息操作 80 00:04:38,209 --> 00:04:43,314 是针对未成真风险的过度保险 81 00:04:44,230 --> 00:04:47,408 现行利率明显偏宽松 82 00:04:47,408 --> 00:04:49,209 德银进一步指出 83 00:04:49,209 --> 00:04:54,209 当前政策利率明显低于美联储通常参考的 84 00:04:54,209 --> 00:04:58,009 多种政策规则所建议的水平 85 00:04:58,009 --> 00:05:01,278 无论是基于当前数据近期预测 86 00:05:01,278 --> 00:05:04,959 还是美联储自身对中性利率的判断 87 00:05:04,959 --> 00:05:07,319 亦或得银自己的估算 88 00:05:07,319 --> 00:05:10,100 结论均指向同一方向 89 00:05:10,100 --> 00:05:12,540 现行利率偏宽松 90 00:05:12,540 --> 00:05:15,639 仍有紧缩空间 91 00:05:17,620 --> 00:05:21,319 芯片通胀税席卷全球 92 00:05:21,319 --> 00:05:24,300 AI吞噬存储消费 93 00:05:24,300 --> 00:05:26,600 电子与汽车被迫买单 94 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,889 AI军备竞赛引爆危机 95 00:05:31,889 --> 00:05:36,029 AI军备竞赛正引爆全球存储芯片危机 96 00:05:36,029 --> 00:05:39,829 其破坏力已远超半导体行业本身 97 00:05:39,829 --> 00:05:41,529 德意志银行指出 98 00:05:41,529 --> 00:05:45,310 存储芯片已从周期性大宗商品 99 00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:49,529 演变为具有宏观经济意义的关键变量 100 00:05:49,529 --> 00:05:52,439 三大巨头市值均破万亿 101 00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:56,540 控制全球超九成DRAM份额 102 00:05:56,540 --> 00:06:01,589 标志着这场危机正深刻影响整体宏观经济 103 00:06:01,949 --> 00:06:04,769 结构性供应冲击显现 104 00:06:04,769 --> 00:06:09,389 这绝非传统繁荣与萧条周期的重演 105 00:06:09,389 --> 00:06:14,298 而是由AI引发的深远结构性供应冲击 106 00:06:14,298 --> 00:06:18,879 AI对高带宽存储的无底洞需求 107 00:06:19,439 --> 00:06:24,240 正疯狂挤占传统存储芯片产能 108 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,860 导致一场波及全球宏观经济的存储短缺危机 109 00:06:30,100 --> 00:06:34,100 超大规模云服务商与头部存储厂商 110 00:06:34,100 --> 00:06:36,339 成为绝对赢家 111 00:06:37,490 --> 00:06:40,600 AI吞噬存储的底层逻辑 112 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:44,839 AI浪潮对存储的需求是结构性颠覆 113 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:50,970 存储芯片在AI系统中负责持有并喂养数据 114 00:06:50,970 --> 00:06:53,798 涵盖容量与带宽 115 00:06:53,798 --> 00:06:56,879 特别是智能体AI的范式转变 116 00:06:56,879 --> 00:07:00,119 需多类型存储协同运作 117 00:07:00,119 --> 00:07:02,360 大幅推高整体消耗 118 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,939 AI的进步速度正由存储决定 119 00:07:05,939 --> 00:07:08,839 而非单纯由算力决定 120 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,480 难以逾越的存储墙 121 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:15,269 AI发展面临难以逾越的存储墙 122 00:07:15,269 --> 00:07:17,889 当计算性能超过阈值 123 00:07:17,889 --> 00:07:22,089 若不同步扩大存储带宽 124 00:07:22,089 --> 00:07:26,209 增加算力的边际收益将趋于零 125 00:07:26,209 --> 00:07:27,689 德银预测 126 00:07:27,689 --> 00:07:29,649 高带宽存储需求 127 00:07:29,649 --> 00:07:34,029 将以约40%的年复合增长率增至 128 00:07:34,029 --> 00:07:35,430 2030年 129 00:07:35,430 --> 00:07:39,250 超大规模云厂商签署多年期协议 130 00:07:39,250 --> 00:07:42,790 进一步压缩其他买家空间 131 00:07:44,180 --> 00:07:47,209 晶圆厂扩张受制于时间 132 00:07:47,569 --> 00:07:51,860 供给缺口的核心障碍在于实践存储 133 00:07:51,860 --> 00:07:54,819 晶圆厂从动工到投产 134 00:07:54,819 --> 00:07:56,939 通常需两至3年 135 00:07:56,939 --> 00:07:59,079 已宣布的扩产项目 136 00:07:59,079 --> 00:08:03,019 最早到2027年才能形成实质贡献 137 00:08:03,019 --> 00:08:07,500 同时HBM生产所需硅片消耗量 138 00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:10,629 约为普通DRAM的三倍 139 00:08:10,629 --> 00:08:13,129 随着技术代际演进 140 00:08:13,129 --> 00:08:16,668 挤出效应将进一步加剧 141 00:08:17,269 --> 00:08:20,389 零和博弈下的产能配给 142 00:08:20,389 --> 00:08:23,720 存储危机的本质是一场零和博弈 143 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,720 每一片用于AI服务器的晶圆 144 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:33,599 都意味着供手机或汽车使用的存储减少 145 00:08:33,599 --> 00:08:38,058 超大规模云厂商凭借定价权转嫁成本 146 00:08:38,058 --> 00:08:40,750 而传统消费电子行业 147 00:08:40,750 --> 00:08:45,519 正面临严重的利润压缩和产能配给 148 00:08:45,519 --> 00:08:50,840 企业普遍选择降规格而非直接涨价 149 00:08:52,139 --> 00:08:55,620 存储成本推高终端通胀 150 00:08:55,620 --> 00:09:00,029 存储成本飙升正转化为芯片 151 00:09:00,029 --> 00:09:03,328 通胀税推高整体通胀数据 152 00:09:03,328 --> 00:09:05,129 2026年第二季度 153 00:09:05,129 --> 00:09:07,649 标准DRAM合约价 154 00:09:07,649 --> 00:09:11,190 预计环比上涨超58% 155 00:09:11,190 --> 00:09:14,549 NAND闪存涨幅更高 156 00:09:14,549 --> 00:09:18,269 消费电子与PC市场营收将下滑 157 00:09:18,269 --> 00:09:21,610 而汽车行业受成本上升影响 158 00:09:21,610 --> 00:09:24,590 普通车辆及高阶自动驾驶车辆 159 00:09:24,590 --> 00:09:27,970 售价均将显著上涨 160 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,210 美国九大行业联合预警 161 00:09:31,210 --> 00:09:34,629 美国九大行业组织联合警告 162 00:09:34,629 --> 00:09:38,970 AI数据中心对存储芯片的无尽需求 163 00:09:38,970 --> 00:09:44,059 可能导致消费品价格大幅上涨并扰乱供应链 164 00:09:44,059 --> 00:09:46,279 他们呼吁政府扩大产能 165 00:09:46,279 --> 00:09:48,828 以保障供应链安全 166 00:09:48,828 --> 00:09:51,149 美国电子元器件PPI 167 00:09:51,149 --> 00:09:54,070 同比涨幅已达26.9% 168 00:10:00,570 --> 00:10:03,279 破局之路与泡沫隐忧 169 00:10:03,279 --> 00:10:05,340 为缓解瓶颈 170 00:10:05,340 --> 00:10:11,269 巨头正通过巨额资本支出和收购旧厂加速扩产 171 00:10:11,269 --> 00:10:16,149 但需警惕AI需求放缓引发的产能过剩风险 172 00:10:16,149 --> 00:10:20,929 此外软件算法优化如谷歌新算法 173 00:10:20,929 --> 00:10:24,029 试图减少对HBM的依赖 174 00:10:24,029 --> 00:10:26,490 虽短期引发股价波动 175 00:10:26,490 --> 00:10:32,529 但长期可能因杰文斯悖论反而增加总需求 176 00:10:33,169 --> 00:10:35,269 好我们看一下英特尔 177 00:10:35,269 --> 00:10:38,629 那么刚才这个文章啊比较深入哈 178 00:10:38,629 --> 00:10:41,389 就说存储芯片也好 179 00:10:41,389 --> 00:10:42,169 CPU也好 180 00:10:42,169 --> 00:10:44,259 应该还是供不应求哈 181 00:10:44,259 --> 00:10:47,919 所以啊我们存储的比如说MU啊什么的 182 00:10:47,919 --> 00:10:49,509 S n d k 183 00:10:49,990 --> 00:10:51,429 还有这个我们的CPU 184 00:10:51,429 --> 00:10:54,950 GPU应该还是有大量的需求的对吧 185 00:10:54,950 --> 00:10:57,830 他说这个AI有无底洞的这个需求 186 00:10:57,830 --> 00:10:59,029 我认为是如此 187 00:10:59,029 --> 00:11:02,210 因为人们使用AI的频率越来越高 188 00:11:02,210 --> 00:11:04,989 各个就各种问题是吧 189 00:11:04,989 --> 00:11:06,249 他都要去VAI 190 00:11:06,249 --> 00:11:11,019 所以这个远超过去搜索引擎的使用量哈 191 00:11:11,019 --> 00:11:15,200 所以这个存储需求肯定是爆发式的 192 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:16,889 指数级的增长 193 00:11:16,889 --> 00:11:18,809 那么计算需求也是一样 194 00:11:18,809 --> 00:11:19,649 对不对 195 00:11:19,649 --> 00:11:20,169 好 196 00:11:20,169 --> 00:11:21,350 我们看一下英特尔 197 00:11:21,350 --> 00:11:24,210 你看英特尔这个图涨了这么多了 198 00:11:24,210 --> 00:11:25,960 从这涨到这 199 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:27,460 从下边涨到这儿 200 00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:28,879 从前儿又涨到这 201 00:11:28,879 --> 00:11:31,149 近期又在这里震荡 202 00:11:31,149 --> 00:11:32,250 完了又要涨 203 00:11:32,250 --> 00:11:33,730 那我们应该怎么办 204 00:11:33,730 --> 00:11:36,129 应该只能要继续看涨了 205 00:11:36,129 --> 00:11:42,990 可见这个嗯AI它实际上是要发展的话 206 00:11:42,990 --> 00:11:45,330 他就得不断的被人用哈 207 00:11:45,330 --> 00:11:46,330 用的越多 208 00:11:46,330 --> 00:11:49,259 计算需求和存储需求越越多 209 00:11:49,259 --> 00:11:53,399 然后AI进化的就越好越快是吧 210 00:11:53,399 --> 00:11:55,929 他是怎么说呢 211 00:11:56,169 --> 00:11:58,210 他就好像势不可挡一样哈 212 00:11:58,210 --> 00:12:03,659 所以不能贸然的去猜这些图表的顶英特尔是吧 213 00:12:03,659 --> 00:12:07,328 好我们随便挑几只看一下哈 214 00:12:09,609 --> 00:12:11,249 这个图我们分析过哈 215 00:12:11,249 --> 00:12:13,889 那这个图当前应该做多 216 00:12:14,279 --> 00:12:17,399 我们看到它实际上是一个接近于横向的 217 00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:18,139 一个震荡 218 00:12:18,139 --> 00:12:22,320 或者是一个斜率较小的一个通道哈 219 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,259 那这样的话应该在这做多做多 220 00:12:25,379 --> 00:12:30,360 近期的日线图这里慢慢震荡上行的是吧 221 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:32,860 你看之前这个空头是这么强势的抛售 222 00:12:32,860 --> 00:12:34,960 当前的空头没有那个力度啊 223 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,080 所以这个区域做多的多头应该继续持仓嗯 224 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:39,940 继续看涨 225 00:12:39,940 --> 00:12:42,340 再去测试高位嗯 226 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:45,279 我们看一下应用材料 227 00:12:45,279 --> 00:12:48,559 应用材料也是直勾勾的上涨是吧 228 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,379 特别是近期的K线行加速上涨 229 00:12:51,379 --> 00:12:53,460 但是我们也不能踩顶 230 00:12:53,460 --> 00:12:56,620 那么上一个交易日是上涨了4%哈 231 00:12:56,620 --> 00:13:00,610 你不要觉得他是红色K线就害怕哈 232 00:13:00,610 --> 00:13:02,870 它实际上是阳性啊 233 00:13:02,870 --> 00:13:06,610 所以K线是什么其实没有那么重要 234 00:13:06,610 --> 00:13:09,960 如果他不是特别强势的阳线或阴线的话 235 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,269 那对于上涨趋势来说不是特别强势的阴险 236 00:13:13,269 --> 00:13:15,149 特别是这是收涨的情况下 237 00:13:15,149 --> 00:13:16,210 就不用理睬 238 00:13:16,210 --> 00:13:19,120 还应该假设趋势还在哈 239 00:13:19,759 --> 00:13:21,559 非常的疯狂 240 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,679 我看这个嗯 241 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,090 SOXL是另外一个哈 242 00:13:29,090 --> 00:13:31,169 这个叫SOXX 243 00:13:31,169 --> 00:13:33,129 它也是一个ETF啊 244 00:13:33,129 --> 00:13:35,730 你看这图多么陡角 245 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,568 其实哈这个半导体就叫硅基啊 246 00:13:41,568 --> 00:13:45,129 AI呢就是建立在硅基之础基础之上的啊 247 00:13:45,129 --> 00:13:46,989 叫硅基生命啊 248 00:13:46,989 --> 00:13:48,519 对吧嗯 249 00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:50,080 它既然是生命哈 250 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:51,960 而且有不断发展的可能性啊 251 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,179 所以这个半导体整体的大趋势应该不会变 252 00:13:55,179 --> 00:13:58,359 但是过程中应该会有一些大型的中型的回调 253 00:13:58,399 --> 00:14:00,320 那现在这些回调都比较浅啊 254 00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:02,629 是吧嗯 255 00:14:02,629 --> 00:14:06,429 嗯当所有的人都认识到这AI是必然趋势的时候 256 00:14:06,429 --> 00:14:08,529 这个行业就不可以不会止步了 257 00:14:08,529 --> 00:14:09,980 只会向前 258 00:14:09,980 --> 00:14:13,679 所以这些基础的硬件肯定是要发展的 259 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,100 硬件还有个特点就是没几年就要更换 260 00:14:17,379 --> 00:14:18,559 因为它有损耗 261 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,440 所以这个东西它是周期性的是吧 262 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:22,940 未来如果达到稳态的话 263 00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:25,080 也是周期性的啊 264 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,320 现在还没达到稳态 265 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,559 现在是指数级增长的一个初期对吧 266 00:14:30,559 --> 00:14:34,019 所以半导体这块你看跌都跌不动 267 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,840 好当然这都是我自己的猜测哈 268 00:14:40,039 --> 00:14:42,110 我们看下亚马逊好 269 00:14:42,110 --> 00:14:45,210 亚马逊近期我们也主要关注当前这根横线 270 00:14:45,210 --> 00:14:46,710 大概是在235 271 00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:49,328 这一带能不能真正的成为支撑位 272 00:14:49,328 --> 00:14:51,828 理论上这里有止跌止跌技巧 273 00:14:51,828 --> 00:14:53,989 可能后续上行的概率会略高 274 00:14:53,989 --> 00:14:57,470 但是呢这种横盘呢它其实不一定完全是止跌哈 275 00:14:57,470 --> 00:14:59,750 也有可能是这波下跌腿的一个停顿 276 00:14:59,750 --> 00:15:00,970 也就是下跌中继 277 00:15:00,970 --> 00:15:04,320 然后再跌一下再止跌会更好一点啊 278 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:05,779 当然他也可以止跌 279 00:15:05,779 --> 00:15:08,740 因为这个位置是曾经密集的博弈区间哈 280 00:15:08,740 --> 00:15:10,929 是一个重要的支撑位哈 281 00:15:10,929 --> 00:15:13,990 但支撑位我们说不是说那么重要 282 00:15:13,990 --> 00:15:15,730 如果你非得画趋势线的话 283 00:15:15,730 --> 00:15:16,590 这样画 284 00:15:16,590 --> 00:15:19,360 你要止损就放这了对吧 285 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,840 如果你不是太详细太阳指令的话 286 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:23,379 那你就观察一下 287 00:15:23,379 --> 00:15:24,980 接下来一到两个交易日 288 00:15:24,980 --> 00:15:27,059 他是直接还是下去 289 00:15:27,059 --> 00:15:30,610 对下去之后估计也就这么大的空间了 290 00:15:30,610 --> 00:15:35,610 这跟这个很多图都类似哈啊近期涨的比较慢 291 00:15:35,610 --> 00:15:37,899 就是因为回调比较频繁 292 00:15:38,259 --> 00:15:43,059 除了那几个CPUGPU和存储光通信这些啊 293 00:15:43,059 --> 00:15:45,120 这种传统的龙头股 294 00:15:45,279 --> 00:15:47,600 科技龙头股还是比较慢的啊 295 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,240 这个涨速 296 00:15:50,299 --> 00:15:51,779 它更传统的是谁啊 297 00:15:51,779 --> 00:15:56,179 微软就微软这个上涨下跌这种如果你处理不好 298 00:15:56,179 --> 00:15:57,220 不断交易的话 299 00:15:57,220 --> 00:15:59,928 很容易没什么利润啊 300 00:15:59,928 --> 00:16:02,528 这个图近期我们需要大阳线啊 301 00:16:02,528 --> 00:16:04,639 至少两根大阳线才行 302 00:16:04,639 --> 00:16:08,259 像上一根这个K线收涨0.13% 303 00:16:08,259 --> 00:16:10,789 这个幅度还是比较小的 304 00:16:10,789 --> 00:16:14,409 不像这里这几根三根大阳线这么猛是吧 305 00:16:14,409 --> 00:16:16,409 所以我们需要大阳线 306 00:16:16,409 --> 00:16:19,230 当前技术面上的啊 307 00:16:19,230 --> 00:16:22,798 它是一个下跌趋势中的一个突破回调啊 308 00:16:22,798 --> 00:16:24,938 他或许在这里再震荡上去 309 00:16:24,938 --> 00:16:29,438 所以我们要关注下周上半周这里止跌的力度 310 00:16:35,009 --> 00:16:37,048 这个叫CRWV也是啊 311 00:16:37,048 --> 00:16:38,969 他是一个算力服务商啊 312 00:16:38,969 --> 00:16:39,788 供应商 313 00:16:39,788 --> 00:16:42,720 所以理论上后续还是有空间的 314 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,129 是近期的这个大回调 315 00:16:45,409 --> 00:16:49,450 然后突破回踩踩踩踩止跌止跌止跌是吧 316 00:16:49,450 --> 00:16:52,149 这些区域我们都说应该以做多为主啊 317 00:16:52,149 --> 00:16:53,610 那么现在空头强吗 318 00:16:53,610 --> 00:16:56,190 不强上一个交易日是收涨啊 319 00:16:56,190 --> 00:16:59,078 收盘价比这要高一点 320 00:16:59,438 --> 00:17:01,359 我们不用看日内的哈 321 00:17:01,359 --> 00:17:02,899 就看日线图就够用了 322 00:17:02,899 --> 00:17:05,839 就说这个区域就是做多的一个区域哈 323 00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:07,980 他为了洗掉这一片的阻力区 324 00:17:07,980 --> 00:17:10,400 所以他这是洗盘是吧 325 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:11,888 继续做赌 326 00:17:12,128 --> 00:17:15,929 估计呢接下来一到两周有可能去测试最高位哈 327 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,579 嗯我们看下AAMD也是哈 328 00:17:21,579 --> 00:17:24,710 AMD也是非常陡峭的啊 329 00:17:24,710 --> 00:17:26,269 那就现在只能继续看涨 330 00:17:26,269 --> 00:17:27,690 问这里有几根阴线 331 00:17:27,690 --> 00:17:28,670 有人说两根啊 332 00:17:28,670 --> 00:17:29,190 不对 333 00:17:29,190 --> 00:17:30,210 只有一根 334 00:17:30,210 --> 00:17:33,569 因为这根红的K线收盘价比这要高一点哈 335 00:17:33,569 --> 00:17:36,769 所以它是阳线叠加上一个加日也是阳线 336 00:17:36,769 --> 00:17:40,960 这这两根儿也就说这根阴线就这么孤单 337 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,539 嗯当然这是目前的情况哈 338 00:17:44,539 --> 00:17:47,819 那目前的话我们就还是画好趋势线就行了 339 00:17:47,819 --> 00:17:49,759 有人说他怎么不见顶呢 340 00:17:49,759 --> 00:17:50,940 本来有楔形了 341 00:17:50,940 --> 00:17:52,119 怎么不见顶的 342 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:53,259 又涨了这么多 343 00:17:53,259 --> 00:17:54,900 怎么还是不见顶呢 344 00:17:54,900 --> 00:17:57,019 我们刚才说过了哈 345 00:17:57,380 --> 00:18:00,619 我们人类哈已经意识到了AI势不可挡 346 00:18:01,859 --> 00:18:07,369 这样的话刚才那个需求驱动的硬件的啊 347 00:18:07,369 --> 00:18:11,349 包括计算和存储的需求就会不断的增加是吧 348 00:18:11,349 --> 00:18:13,269 因为AI还不成熟 349 00:18:13,269 --> 00:18:15,609 AI有时候还比较弱智哈 350 00:18:15,609 --> 00:18:17,470 比较出现幻觉 351 00:18:17,470 --> 00:18:19,069 一厢情愿什么的 352 00:18:19,069 --> 00:18:21,470 所以这还得再进化才行 353 00:18:21,470 --> 00:18:23,470 如果就发展两三年就结束了 354 00:18:23,470 --> 00:18:25,769 那还能叫革命革命吗 355 00:18:25,970 --> 00:18:28,049 大家也要有长远的规划 356 00:18:28,049 --> 00:18:30,759 但并不意味着K线图不会下跌哈 357 00:18:30,759 --> 00:18:32,200 这是两回事 358 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,519 K线图有时候跟基本面它不完全一致 359 00:18:36,069 --> 00:18:37,430 怎么你怎么这么说 360 00:18:37,430 --> 00:18:40,569 你比如说特特斯拉基本面不是太好 361 00:18:40,569 --> 00:18:43,650 但它老是涨也没办法对吧 362 00:18:43,650 --> 00:18:45,450 特斯拉这个图也是啊 363 00:18:45,450 --> 00:18:48,289 下周看看能不能继续延续止跌 364 00:18:48,289 --> 00:18:51,599 延续一个拉升的态势 365 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,579 嗯看一下德州仪器 366 00:18:55,579 --> 00:18:58,180 德州仪器也是一个非常好的图 367 00:18:58,180 --> 00:19:01,029 只不过我们没怎么跟哈 368 00:19:01,029 --> 00:19:04,170 我们把近期的触点给他连一个趋势线做啥呀 369 00:19:04,170 --> 00:19:07,210 做赌我们要有一个支撑位 370 00:19:07,210 --> 00:19:09,309 大概就在这边就可以了 371 00:19:09,309 --> 00:19:10,289 他这个图啊 372 00:19:10,289 --> 00:19:16,049 它实际上是好在这里震荡过这么长时间啊 373 00:19:16,730 --> 00:19:18,609 扎扎针扎扎针 374 00:19:20,210 --> 00:19:23,690 看这直接拉上去大缺口是吧 375 00:19:23,690 --> 00:19:25,210 现在是一波回调 376 00:19:25,210 --> 00:19:27,589 这波回调又在这止跌了啊 377 00:19:27,589 --> 00:19:28,450 又要拉升哈 378 00:19:28,450 --> 00:19:31,549 我看他上一个交易日又是跳空高开阳线 379 00:19:31,549 --> 00:19:32,950 那么新的一个 380 00:19:32,950 --> 00:19:34,069 接下来一到两个交易日 381 00:19:34,069 --> 00:19:35,789 有可能去尝试突破这个位置 382 00:19:35,789 --> 00:19:37,150 这个最高点对吧 383 00:19:37,150 --> 00:19:40,380 突破上也就继续涨好 384 00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:42,740 当然也要画好趋势线啊 385 00:19:43,220 --> 00:19:44,980 好有人说需要半导体 386 00:19:44,980 --> 00:19:45,680 需要芯片 387 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:46,940 但阿斯迈尔获益啊 388 00:19:46,940 --> 00:19:49,140 是的看陡峭吧 389 00:19:51,980 --> 00:19:53,140 好这是这几个 390 00:19:53,140 --> 00:19:54,220 那英伟达怎么不涨呢 391 00:19:54,220 --> 00:19:55,440 英伟达其实也涨了 392 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,079 他只是市值太大了 393 00:19:57,079 --> 00:19:59,339 资金都去玩那些其他的小市值 394 00:19:59,339 --> 00:20:00,940 中等市值的去了 395 00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:02,420 他也得看涨啊 396 00:20:02,420 --> 00:20:04,720 他只是慢速了 397 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:09,349 好好这是这几个啊 398 00:20:09,750 --> 00:20:12,609 嗯也就是说高通也能赶上这一波 399 00:20:12,609 --> 00:20:15,109 有可能高通其实更有价值 400 00:20:15,109 --> 00:20:15,930 怎么的 401 00:20:15,930 --> 00:20:19,759 刚才我们看到那个这个叫什么来着 402 00:20:19,759 --> 00:20:21,119 德州仪器啊 403 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,460 你看这图跟德州仪器像不像啊 404 00:20:23,460 --> 00:20:26,289 有人说有点像嗯 405 00:20:27,130 --> 00:20:30,950 德州仪器是这样战震这样战震暴涨还是哈 406 00:20:30,950 --> 00:20:32,349 那高通也是一样 407 00:20:32,349 --> 00:20:36,390 但高中高通感觉涨的更慢哈啊在这站站 408 00:20:36,390 --> 00:20:39,319 这好像刚刚突破这个位置 409 00:20:39,319 --> 00:20:41,380 还在这洗个盘是吧 410 00:20:41,380 --> 00:20:43,059 这是一个什么位置 411 00:20:43,059 --> 00:20:44,180 也说不知道啊 412 00:20:44,180 --> 00:20:45,849 来我们看一看 413 00:20:45,849 --> 00:20:48,930 它实际上是这样的一个形态哈 414 00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:52,710 被托盘上你回踩回踩止跌止跌是吧 415 00:20:52,710 --> 00:20:54,150 理论上还得做多 416 00:20:54,150 --> 00:20:57,769 大家看这是一个倾斜的一个洗盘是吧 417 00:20:58,170 --> 00:21:00,009 所以啊看啥呀 418 00:21:00,009 --> 00:21:01,009 看涨 419 00:21:01,009 --> 00:21:03,369 这其实是一个阶段性的大型的底部啊 420 00:21:03,369 --> 00:21:06,079 只不过略微倾斜一点是吧 421 00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:08,039 对不对嗯 422 00:21:08,519 --> 00:21:12,380 好或者说这整块这片哈是一个长期的洗盘 423 00:21:12,380 --> 00:21:15,380 这整个这片长期的洗盘 424 00:21:15,380 --> 00:21:18,000 这几年的洗盘刚刚被突破 425 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,200 回踩回踩止跌止跌对吧 426 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,000 所以这是可能是一个起点哈 427 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,069 新的一个大波段的起点 428 00:21:24,069 --> 00:21:27,049 为啥我我们可能会偏乐观一点 429 00:21:27,049 --> 00:21:29,329 因为它市值还比较小啊 430 00:21:29,329 --> 00:21:31,509 才2300亿 431 00:21:31,759 --> 00:21:34,359 所以当然这事还是猜测哈 432 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:35,440 多头做多之后 433 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,900 止损还是放在这边这个趋势线下方 434 00:21:37,900 --> 00:21:39,500 或者提高一点点是吧 435 00:21:39,500 --> 00:21:40,980 他有可能继续震荡哈 436 00:21:40,980 --> 00:21:42,759 再去找啊 437 00:21:42,759 --> 00:21:44,259 它也有可能直接暴涨啊 438 00:21:44,259 --> 00:21:45,240 大家要警惕 439 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,400 就是说怎么说呢 440 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:48,619 不要太空啊 441 00:21:48,619 --> 00:21:51,339 有时候嗯 442 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,559 好刚才也提到股份了是吧 443 00:21:55,559 --> 00:21:56,960 谷歌这也是回调 444 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:57,920 直接做啥呀 445 00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,339 做多对吧 446 00:21:59,339 --> 00:22:02,200 他这波涨得也是相当的猛哈 447 00:22:02,558 --> 00:22:05,279 明白嗯 448 00:22:05,279 --> 00:22:06,940 猛哈非常猛 449 00:22:06,940 --> 00:22:09,000 没啥可说的哈 450 00:22:09,289 --> 00:22:10,170 好最后呢 451 00:22:10,170 --> 00:22:11,910 欢迎大家去看我们的牛股内容 452 00:22:11,910 --> 00:22:14,569 和这个最热美股详细说的会员内容哈 453 00:22:14,569 --> 00:22:17,150 绿宝石会员可以都看到好 454 00:22:17,150 --> 00:22:19,529 列宝石红眼叫天上地下 455 00:22:19,529 --> 00:22:23,769 大家也可以看一看这个上一期前两期的内容哈 456 00:22:23,769 --> 00:22:26,009 好我们下一个时段继续跟进啊 457 00:22:26,009 --> 00:22:26,740 拜拜
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