【Investor Center】巴菲特的最后警告（最后一次采访）

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一旦多米诺骨牌开始倒塌

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它们就会接连倒塌

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而这行链条比任何人想象的都要短

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并且倒塌速度更快

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美国银行系统正酝酿风暴

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告诉你这些的人并非末日预言者

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也不是在寻找套利机会的空头

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他是过去五十年最成功的投资者

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正平静地坐在贝基·克里克的演播室里

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说出那句应该让所有投资者停步的银行警告

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冷静

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沃伦·巴菲特刚刚接受了CNBC采访

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并警告道

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美国最大银行正依赖一套管道系统

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每天处理十万亿美元流动

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如果这套管道破裂

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电话无人接听，优质银行可能在百小时内崩盘

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在本视频中

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你将听到巴菲特原话

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用通俗英语解析其真正含义

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以及巴菲特采取的具体行动

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三百八

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用伯克希尔的十亿美元做好准备

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因为这里有个关键点

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轻描淡写

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他已95岁高龄

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已退出伯克希尔CEO职务

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极少再出现在镜头前

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当他出现时

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几乎从不直接谈论银行系统

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因此当他打破这一模式

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在直播中详细解析大行融资方式

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务必认真观看

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这就是关键时刻

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我说

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银行体系

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某种程度上非常稳健

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在另一层面却极度脆弱

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我说

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摩根大通近年财报显示日均业务量达十万亿

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不

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这是无担保贷款

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单家银行日均十万亿

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他反复强调的关键词是'无担保'

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让我展示这到底意味着什么

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因为这是散户投资者常误解的部分

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谈及银行风险时

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你可能首先想到坏账

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次级抵押贷款

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信用卡违约

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这就是第二十八层

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大多数人还记得

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而这就是故事

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有线新闻每次区域银行出现波动都会报道

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但巴菲特不是在谈论贷款

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他是在讲美国最大银行如何融资

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每天早餐前的每个清晨

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这就是画面

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摩根大通没有持有与自身义务等值的现金

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几乎没有任何银行这样做

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它借入巨额短期资金过夜

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从其他银行无抵押获取

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货币市场基金和大型机构贷款方

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这里有个华尔街术语

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在继续讨论交易台之前

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这些短期贷款被称为票据

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每天清晨这些票据必须重新展期

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即前一天的贷款方需收回款项

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新贷款方接手为银行提供24小时资金

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同一家银行同笔贷款

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新贷款方

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又一天所有人都继续展期

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系统运行完美

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当所有人同时停止展期时

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这就是脆弱性

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想象一下这样

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想象你的房贷每天重置

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每天清晨贷款方决定是否继续为你提供24小时资金

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大多数清晨一切正常

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你信用良好

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但某周二贷款方突然不再接听电话

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你从未逾期

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收入不变

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房子价值仍高于贷款

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这些都不重要因为贷款基于有人

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任何人愿意接手展期的假设

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每天十万亿次24小时口头协议

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贴着摩根大通标签

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巴菲特继续解释机制

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听好这个

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我说

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摩根大通

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最近年报显示日均业务量达十万亿

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这是一项无抵押政策

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他们深知在做什么

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相信我

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我说

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没人比JVN更聪明

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但呃

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我不想

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在二零零八年期间我并不想要

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我不想持有任何无担保资产

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你知道的

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在外面待一天

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我的意思是

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谁能想到没人做得好

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你知道的

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我是认真的

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呃

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世界高度互联

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而且啊

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所有人都陷入恐慌

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我是认真的

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你知道他们可能说不

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但你可以联系顶级投行

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但他们不

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他们会说

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他们不接电话

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即使情况恶化到一定程度

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如果他们接听电话

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他们

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你知道他们报出十点买入二十点卖出

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电话不再有人接听

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这就是他想让你听到的

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当我第一次观看这个采访

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我不得不想象那个场景

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周一早晨

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银行的财务官致电其他部门处理交易

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没人接听

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这家银行从周五稳健到周一美联储划拨资金

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没有信贷周期

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没有数月的预警信号

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只是电话响成空

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巴菲特亲历过这一切

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他在一九九一年亲历所罗门兄弟

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所罗门被指控违规提交国债投标

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这确实是个丑闻

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但真正的危机并非

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导致公司濒临崩溃的

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几乎让公司崩溃的

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所罗门掌控着隔夜票据市场

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放贷方开始紧张

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停止续作导致盈利稳健的

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投行仅剩数日崩盘

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巴菲特出任临时CEO

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他亲自逐一电话请求继续放贷

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直到恐慌平息

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十七年后

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更大规模的危机再次重演

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美林兄弟公司每天在隔夜回购市场提供约两百亿美元的融资

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在九月之前

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二零零八年

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当信心开始破裂

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借贷瞬间消失

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四天内而非数月

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这家在大萧条中幸存下来的公司

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两次世界大战期间

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同样的机制

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同样的电话突然沉默

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这里有个你应该警惕的部分

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这已是古老历史

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三方回购市场

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2008年崩溃的同一套金融管道

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仍是所有大U

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S银行今日融资的核心

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美联储公布每日交易量

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每天达数万亿美元

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每个清晨

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基于信任延续

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当我真正面对这个数字时

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我产生了强烈反应

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我们仍需一次信心冲击

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远离相同危机

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如今系统更大更快更互联

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更高的资本比率

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压力测试

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备用支持

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但底层机制

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银行短期借贷

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长期持有押注每日展期未变

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因为无法改变而不致萎缩

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银行所做的事

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所以

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这就是隔夜市场的背景

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纸张即金融管道

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当它流动时

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没人察觉停止时

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金融界巨头

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仅用几天而非季度

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甚至年前就陷入破产

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现在

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这里才是视频值得观看的部分

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在下一片段中

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巴菲特告诉你此类崩溃的爆发速度

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并点名两位阻止危机的美联储主席

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杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2020年三月的紧急应对和保罗·沃尔克

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巴菲特衡量鲍威尔的标杆人物

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注意听这个短语

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多米诺骨牌的连锁反应比任何人想象的更短

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这就是整个视频浓缩成一句话

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当疫情爆发时

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我想他在2020年3月有所行动

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如果他在两到三周前采取行动

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就会酿成灾难

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曾经

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多米诺骨牌开始倒塌

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它们开始接连倒塌

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而且那条线比任何人想象的更短

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并且倒塌得更快

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我认为他完全做对了

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他甚至比沃尔克做得更坚决

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你知道吗

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我的意思是

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他啊

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呃

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他摧毁了我的英雄形象

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在美联储

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多米诺骨牌的连锁反应比任何人想象的更短 请记住这个冻结

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这就是巴菲特

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在告诉你

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所有事物之间的差距其实很稳定

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有人需要紧急拨款

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紧急资金规模小于市场预期

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他唱衰鲍威尔有几周时间

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可能只有几天时间在2020年3月前行动，否则隔夜借贷市场将冻结

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并拖累实体经济

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这里有一个大多数人忽略的细节，2020年12月25日

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纽约联储悄悄取消了其常备隔夜回购设施的额度上限

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用简单的话说

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美联储运行应急保障机制

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那些在隔夜市场找不到借款人的银行

232
00:09:37,870 --> 00:09:42,450
可以随时向美联储用国债换现金，每次持续两小时

233
00:09:42,450 --> 00:09:43,980
或四小时

234
00:09:43,980 --> 00:09:48,419
这个保障机制原本有每日5000亿美元的额度上限

235
00:09:48,419 --> 00:09:49,460
在12月时

236
00:09:49,460 --> 00:09:52,950
美联储完全取消了额度上限，引用原话

237
00:09:52,950 --> 00:09:55,990
全额拨款是美联储的术语

238
00:09:55,990 --> 00:10:00,879
这意为我们将提供系统所需的所有资金，无上限

239
00:10:00,879 --> 00:10:04,639
如果你认为系统运行正常，就不会预设无限应急消防水带

240
00:10:04,639 --> 00:10:06,779
如果认为管道没问题

241
00:10:06,779 --> 00:10:08,360
想想这个时间线

242
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,299
美联储按设计倾向于低估危机信号

243
00:10:12,299 --> 00:10:15,990
在12月悄悄取消应急贷款额度

244
00:10:15,990 --> 00:10:16,889
然后在3月

245
00:10:16,889 --> 00:10:19,509
过去五十年最杰出的投资者

246
00:10:19,509 --> 00:10:22,839
在电视上谈论银行看似强劲却脆弱

247
00:10:22,839 --> 00:10:26,679
多米诺骨牌在比任何人想象更短的链上接连倒塌

248
00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:29,899
这两件事通常不会在同一季度发生

249
00:10:29,899 --> 00:10:33,960
而当它们同时发生时，谨慎的投资者会密切关注

250
00:10:34,129 --> 00:10:34,529
所以

251
00:10:34,529 --> 00:10:36,549
那么这个系统的阴暗面如何

252
00:10:36,549 --> 00:10:40,009
那些像银行一样运作的私人基金和直接贷款机构

253
00:10:40,009 --> 00:10:43,089
却未纳入银行监管框架内

254
00:10:43,089 --> 00:10:45,708
私人信贷规模从约一点

255
00:10:45,708 --> 00:10:50,349
2020年增长至约三万亿美元，到2025年达到三万亿美元

256
00:10:50,349 --> 00:10:53,210
根据国际货币基金组织和美联储的数据

257
00:10:53,210 --> 00:10:55,629
五年间增长超过一倍

258
00:10:55,629 --> 00:11:00,399
主要游离在多德-弗兰克法案监管的传统银行体系之外

259
00:11:00,399 --> 00:11:02,690
这个数字令人不安的原因在于

260
00:11:02,690 --> 00:11:05,149
大量增长依赖银行信贷额度

261
00:11:05,149 --> 00:11:06,509
流向私人信贷基金

262
00:11:06,509 --> 00:11:08,269
保险公司资产配置

263
00:11:08,269 --> 00:11:10,759
以及追逐收益的游资

264
00:11:10,759 --> 00:11:13,019
这意味着私人信贷出现压力事件

265
00:11:13,019 --> 00:11:14,840
不会仅停留在私人信贷领域

266
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,480
会逆流而上

267
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,100
传导至向基金放贷的银行

268
00:11:18,100 --> 00:11:20,318
传导至购买票据的保险公司

269
00:11:20,318 --> 00:11:22,558
以及担保整个链条的养老金机构

270
00:11:22,558 --> 00:11:26,799
基于高级直接贷款近乎等同国债的假设

271
00:11:26,799 --> 00:11:31,299
在五年间从一万亿扩张至三万亿的规模

272
00:11:31,299 --> 00:11:33,360
遭遇首次实质性经济衰退时

273
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,078
这些关联性将首次接受考验

274
00:11:36,078 --> 00:11:41,460
而经受考验的关联性正是隔夜拆借市场开始犹豫的原因

275
00:11:41,460 --> 00:11:42,100
贝基

276
00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:42,480
快点

277
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,059
巴菲特直接被问及这个问题

278
00:11:45,139 --> 00:11:48,318
他的回答堪称最典型的巴菲特风格回答

279
00:11:48,318 --> 00:11:49,778
如果你仔细聆听

280
00:11:49,778 --> 00:11:51,809
他正在告诉你该怎么做

281
00:11:51,809 --> 00:11:54,850
现在我们应该担心的是传统银行体系吗

282
00:11:54,850 --> 00:11:57,090
还是影子银行体系

283
00:11:57,090 --> 00:11:59,828
我认为目前应该承认

284
00:11:59,828 --> 00:12:02,288
这些都是银行体系的一部分

285
00:12:02,288 --> 00:12:03,969
因为它们彼此相互影响

286
00:12:03,969 --> 00:12:08,129
一个系统的困境可能蔓延至另一个

287
00:12:08,129 --> 00:12:11,450
正如你所看到的

288
00:12:11,450 --> 00:12:14,460
我在2008年看到的

289
00:12:14,460 --> 00:12:19,240
你如何看待当前私人信贷状况 是否存在足够令人担忧的问题

290
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,799
可能引发连锁反应

291
00:12:21,799 --> 00:12:24,000
我不确定自己知道

292
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,009
好的

293
00:12:25,009 --> 00:12:27,549
我知道自己并不确定

294
00:12:27,549 --> 00:12:30,850
但因此我必须为一切做好准备

295
00:12:30,850 --> 00:12:33,899
因此我们将始终持有

296
00:12:33,940 --> 00:12:35,539
我们将始终保留现金

297
00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:37,039
我们将持有国库券

298
00:12:37,039 --> 00:12:38,220
我们不会有钱

299
00:12:38,220 --> 00:12:39,159
市场资金

300
00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:41,200
我们在二零零八年就没有这些

301
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,159
二零零八年我们也不会有商业票据

302
00:12:44,159 --> 00:12:46,769
唯一合法流通的只有这一样东西

303
00:12:46,769 --> 00:12:50,789
你知道如果你持有国债

304
00:12:50,789 --> 00:12:52,610
我们早已知晓

305
00:12:53,029 --> 00:12:55,110
我们并不持有远期国债

306
00:12:55,110 --> 00:12:57,710
我是说但每个周一

307
00:13:00,308 --> 00:13:02,769
只要他们需要出售

308
00:13:02,769 --> 00:13:07,048
你知道价值x亿的票据

309
00:13:07,048 --> 00:13:07,908
我是说他们可以

310
00:13:07,908 --> 00:13:10,129
他们可以印钞来完成

311
00:13:10,129 --> 00:13:11,750
我会这么做

312
00:13:11,870 --> 00:13:13,710
这是与我保持一致的回报

313
00:13:13,710 --> 00:13:15,239
这漫长的伯克希尔

314
00:13:15,239 --> 00:13:17,458
哈撒韦目前持有约三百八十

315
00:13:17,458 --> 00:13:20,038
一亿美元现金和国债

316
00:13:20,038 --> 00:13:22,099
截至最新申报

317
00:13:22,099 --> 00:13:24,078
这一持仓规模如此庞大

318
00:13:24,078 --> 00:13:29,178
伯克希尔·巴菲特控股公司持有接近整个美债市场的五%

319
00:13:29,178 --> 00:13:29,339
S

320
00:13:29,339 --> 00:13:30,740
国债市场

321
00:13:30,740 --> 00:13:31,740
更多茶碗

322
00:13:33,859 --> 00:13:35,239
他没堆起这座山

323
00:13:35,239 --> 00:13:37,379
因为他预测下个月会有危机

324
00:13:37,379 --> 00:13:40,370
他建造了这座山因为他看过这部电影两次

325
00:13:40,370 --> 00:13:42,029
索罗门一九九一年

326
00:13:42,029 --> 00:13:43,629
雷曼与零八年

327
00:13:43,629 --> 00:13:45,289
他知道具体的方式

328
00:13:45,289 --> 00:13:46,730
电话突然静默

329
00:13:46,730 --> 00:13:49,370
现金和国债仍是唯一能流通的

330
00:13:49,370 --> 00:13:50,980
当所有其他都冻结时

331
00:13:50,980 --> 00:13:52,700
商业票据冻结

332
00:13:52,700 --> 00:13:54,120
货币市场冻结

333
00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:57,159
甚至部分高评级企业债也冻结

334
00:13:58,559 --> 00:13:59,200
每个周一

335
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:00,940
若投标不足

336
00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:02,389
美联储印钞

337
00:14:02,389 --> 00:14:06,090
巴菲特指向市场中仍存余值的资产

338
00:14:06,090 --> 00:14:07,029
无人问津时

339
00:14:08,110 --> 00:14:10,529
那我们该如何处理这些

340
00:14:10,529 --> 00:14:14,429
我不告诉你如何在恐慌中抛售股票

341
00:14:14,429 --> 00:14:19,029
这是大多数散户投资者在一周恐慌中摧毁数十年复利积累的方式

342
00:14:19,029 --> 00:14:21,879
我不认为巴菲特会建议这样做

343
00:14:21,879 --> 00:14:25,339
但当你理解他的观点时视角会转变

344
00:14:25,339 --> 00:14:31,099
大多数散户将现金视为拖累 麻木的通胀吞噬者

345
00:14:31,099 --> 00:14:36,309
他们因巴菲特将现金和国库券视为期权性感到内疚

346
00:14:36,309 --> 00:14:38,769
一叠国债票据为你提供了可操作的出价

347
00:14:38,769 --> 00:14:42,470
当其他人被困在无法拨通的电话上时

348
00:14:42,470 --> 00:14:44,789
期权性具有独特属性

349
00:14:44,789 --> 00:14:49,149
其价值恰恰在一切出错时飙升

350
00:14:49,149 --> 00:14:50,389
在正常年份

351
00:14:50,389 --> 00:14:51,950
现金能带来5%的收益

352
00:14:51,950 --> 00:14:54,379
你抱怨错失的上行空间

353
00:14:54,379 --> 00:14:55,779
但在恐慌周

354
00:14:55,779 --> 00:14:59,159
现金能让你以低价购入优质企业股份

355
00:14:59,159 --> 00:15:02,649
没人愿意以两倍价格买入四小时前

356
00:15:02,649 --> 00:15:04,809
这才是真正的巴菲特策略

357
00:15:04,809 --> 00:15:05,610
不是时机

358
00:15:05,610 --> 00:15:06,129
而是危机

359
00:15:06,129 --> 00:15:07,470
但提前布局

360
00:15:07,470 --> 00:15:09,669
所以当他人电话无人接听时

361
00:15:09,669 --> 00:15:11,779
你的正在拨出

362
00:15:11,779 --> 00:15:12,980
这个棘手问题

363
00:15:12,980 --> 00:15:14,799
这里提出的问题很简单

364
00:15:14,799 --> 00:15:19,220
如果巴菲特持有近4000亿美元法定货币并说

365
00:15:19,220 --> 00:15:21,559
我不确定是否了解私人信贷

366
00:15:21,559 --> 00:15:23,259
你的投资组合是什么样

367
00:15:23,259 --> 00:15:25,120
如果他有所保留

368
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,899
你的持仓中首先崩溃的是什么

369
00:15:26,899 --> 00:15:30,220
如果隔夜票据市场冻结一周

370
00:15:30,220 --> 00:15:32,059
这值得提前思考

371
00:15:32,059 --> 00:15:34,779
鲍威尔必须再次拨打电话

372
00:15:35,129 --> 00:15:36,610
如果你喜欢这个视频

373
00:15:36,610 --> 00:15:37,809
观看我们的下一期

374
00:15:37,809 --> 00:15:42,740
何伟德·马克警告即将袭来的五十年一遇风暴冲击股市

375
00:15:42,899 --> 00:15:45,220
我们后会再叙

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