【Adam Khoo】美股板块估值冰火两重天，我正在买入的优质资产清单

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标普500指数从历史高点下跌超过9%

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纳斯达克指数更是下跌接近12%

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此时此刻，股票是否足够便宜

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是否便宜到不可忽视

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是否存在一些被低估的优质公司

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让我们在本视频中进一步了解

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此时此刻

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我们的股票是便宜还是昂贵

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嗯

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这取决于你问谁

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其实完全取决于你用来评估市场的指标

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我采用自上而下的分析方法

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观察整个指数的市盈率

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而你可能采用自下而上的方法

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即评估构成市场的个股内在价值

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让我们看看不同的视角

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许多人喜欢关注

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尤其是新手，只看市盈率

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市盈率

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基于市盈率

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他们说

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市场处于泡沫，估值过高

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因为市盈率远超历史平均水平

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嗯

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情况已不同

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如果看未来12个月的市盈率

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即当前市场股价

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市值除以未来12个月的预期收益

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嗯

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标普500的市盈率为23倍

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标普500再次

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需注意

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这是未来市盈率

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这算高还是低

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嗯

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与过去五年平均值对比

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五年平均市盈率为20倍

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这是绿色线

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而

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十年平均市盈率为18.9倍

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所以

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嗯

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如果对比最近五年

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市场估值合理

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若对比十年平均

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市场仍略显高估

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但再次强调

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我多次指出市盈率可能误导

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因为它未考虑盈利增长

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为什么它不考虑盈利增长

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你无法真正将今天的市盈率与二十年前的市盈率进行比较

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因为今天的盈利增长速度更快

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由于生产率提升，利润率比五十年前更高

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技术进步带来的收益

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另一种观察方式

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我一直在强调

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是查看市场的市盈率比率

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即市盈率与盈利增长率的比值

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这样比较更准确

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是的

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如果我们看PEG比率

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可以看到当前PEG比率是1.07

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这与过去相比如何

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呃

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二十年

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呃

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抱歉

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过去三十年

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可以看到市盈率比率曾高达2.4以上

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超过两倍

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呃

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这里1.7

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这里接近1.6

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1.6

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1.6

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如果比较过去三十年

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实际上处于范围底部而非顶部

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基于PEG比率分析

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市场似乎略有低估

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但需注意在标普500指数内

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标普500分为11个行业板块

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某些板块目前严重被低估

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某些板块被高估

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板块内部分股票被高估

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某些股票被低估

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七只股票估值合理

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让我们深入分析

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看看具体哪些板块或行业或个股

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呃

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现在显得便宜

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肯定

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许多人发现持有的个股跌幅更大

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远超整体市场

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标普500下跌9%

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持有的某些股票可能下跌20%至30%

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尽管这些公司本身优秀

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原因在于抛售集中在市场特定领域

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让我们看看标普500热力图

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这是Finviz的数据，选择今年以来表现

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红色部分是今年以来跌幅最大的股票

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绿色的是真正保持年内同步增长的部分

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如果我们看一下今年以来的表现

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哪些行业实际上实现了上涨

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比如

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我说过

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那些与现实相反的行业往往跑输市场

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而缓慢增长的公司却表现优异

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比如这里的消费防御板块

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你的沃尔玛

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你的可口可乐

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百事可乐、Costco

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这些都是防御型缓慢增长的公司

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这些涨幅很大对吧

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原因在于市场认为

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它们难以被AI颠覆

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看起来非常安全

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因此推高了这些股票

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某些工业股也上涨了

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尤其是农业和重型设备

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原因同样是难以被AI取代

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这些被称为

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无法被AI替代的领域

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所以市场正将资金投入这些领域

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因为看起来更确定

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目前的情况再次

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推高了价格

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因此这些行业的股票不再便宜

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估值明显过高

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铁路运输

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铁路股在这里上涨

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公用事业股也在上涨

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当然能源股涨幅很大

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由于油价上涨

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所有价格都在上涨

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能源公司表现强劲

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当然黄金也在上涨

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白银也在上涨

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尽管稍有回调

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当然铜价也在上涨

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这推动了基础材料板块

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总体来看

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这些行业今年涨幅显著

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但已不再便宜

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我看不出太多价值

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但市场仍可能存在一定动量

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市场非常关注的领域

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价值投资机会在科技领域

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但并非所有科技行业

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科技某些细分领域

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例如软件基础设施这一组

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软件基础设施板块，微软下跌2.6%

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你的Palantir下跌19%

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你的帕罗阿尔托CrowdStrike

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这些是网络安全公司

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下跌超过20%

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你净赚40%

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哦

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这仅占1%

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这还不错

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还有一些其他公司

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市场另一部分看起来非常便宜

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现在软件应用板块

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你的Adobe下跌3.2%

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销售额下降32%

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Uber下跌15%，进一步下跌37%

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ServiceNow下跌3.5%

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等等

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等等现在再说

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作为投资者

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你资金有限

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想要全仓买入

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核心思路是在某个市场板块

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你需要选择

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该行业中最强的公司

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当然会有分歧

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当然

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如果问我

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例如

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在软件应用板块

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这里有许多优质公司

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但若问我

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哪些最具韧性

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抵御AI冲击

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客户粘性最高，转换成本最高

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如果问我

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例如

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ServiceNow

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我在之前的软件股视频中详细解释过原因

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所以

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例如

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ServiceNow拥有强大的记录系统

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智能系统使其比其他公司更具韧性

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如Adobe等

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确实如此

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在软件基础设施板块

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那里有许多优质公司

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但若问我

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我认为最具韧性的是

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最具优势的当属

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例如

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微软与帕兰提尔

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呃

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帕洛阿尔托

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Crowdstrike

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四十九嗯

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在我看来

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有些人可能不同意

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这很正常

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最近通讯服务

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股票也大幅下跌，尤其是

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谷歌下跌十二点

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七六个百分点

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而今日Meta暴跌二十点，毫无道理

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好的

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我稍后会详细讨论

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但再次

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正是这些愚蠢的理由给了我们继续构建的机会

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我们在商业领域的地位

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尤其是我们原本就不够

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嗯，从头说起

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因为我们当初没买够

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当时价格低廉时

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现在

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机会再次来临

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没错

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公交车调头接更多乘客

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嗯

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我认为金融领域也有很多机会

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现在再说

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并非整个金融行业

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但具体在信贷服务领域

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金融信贷服务如Visa、万事达卡

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它们看起来严重被低估，且因愚蠢原因

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在我看来完全不合逻辑

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我认为Visa和万事达卡在支付领域最强

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嗯

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然后还有

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嗯，金融数据与分析

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拥有这些公司的

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其中一些已变得相当便宜，再次

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我认为最具韧性的

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将是S和B全球

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还有洲际交易所

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ICE，抱歉

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刚才说到哪里了，对吧

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00:08:38,009 --> 00:08:44,399
嗯，SPG、ICE，还有MSCI

247
00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:44,980
但再次

248
00:08:44,980 --> 00:08:47,509
MSCI我成功购入了一些

249
00:08:47,509 --> 00:08:48,869
但现在被高估了

250
00:08:48,869 --> 00:08:49,109
再次

251
00:08:49,109 --> 00:08:50,308
但再次被低估了

252
00:08:50,308 --> 00:08:53,849
我认为p全球和icc医疗保健

253
00:08:53,849 --> 00:08:57,019
因此健康行业处于长期大幅增长趋势

254
00:08:57,019 --> 00:08:59,379
但医疗保健某些领域已严重抛售

255
00:08:59,379 --> 00:09:00,059
已抛售

256
00:09:00,059 --> 00:09:00,860
抱歉很多

257
00:09:00,860 --> 00:09:01,299
呃

258
00:09:01,299 --> 00:09:02,159
今年也是如此

259
00:09:02,159 --> 00:09:04,059
尤其是医疗管理

260
00:09:04,059 --> 00:09:04,879
健康保险

261
00:09:04,879 --> 00:09:06,460
通常在中期选举年

262
00:09:06,460 --> 00:09:08,340
存在大量监管不确定性

263
00:09:08,340 --> 00:09:11,100
因此医疗管理公司持续抛售

264
00:09:11,100 --> 00:09:12,309
所以联合健康

265
00:09:12,309 --> 00:09:13,169
什么便宜

266
00:09:13,169 --> 00:09:17,429
现在更便宜了，而联合健康是其中最强的

267
00:09:17,429 --> 00:09:19,970
且业务最多元化

268
00:09:20,210 --> 00:09:22,529
此外还有医疗器械公司

269
00:09:22,529 --> 00:09:24,389
这些公司也处于抛售状态

270
00:09:24,389 --> 00:09:25,629
真搞不懂为什么

271
00:09:25,629 --> 00:09:27,529
其中一些质量很高

272
00:09:27,529 --> 00:09:31,049
我持有的医疗诊断公司

273
00:09:31,049 --> 00:09:33,470
这些公司具有极高的转换成本

274
00:09:33,470 --> 00:09:34,659
这些公司

275
00:09:34,659 --> 00:09:35,220
呃

276
00:09:35,220 --> 00:09:36,259
高质量公司

277
00:09:36,259 --> 00:09:38,019
嗯长期来看

278
00:09:38,019 --> 00:09:38,820
它们跑赢市场

279
00:09:38,820 --> 00:09:39,919
但短期而言

280
00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:42,169
其中一些已被严重低估

281
00:09:42,169 --> 00:09:43,049
比如费舍尔公司

282
00:09:43,049 --> 00:09:43,610
例如

283
00:09:43,610 --> 00:09:45,389
以及伊克斯实验室

284
00:09:45,389 --> 00:09:47,870
但伊克斯仍未被低估

285
00:09:47,870 --> 00:09:50,090
目前仍略高估

286
00:09:50,090 --> 00:09:55,139
这为您展示了当前市场低价的整体图景

287
00:09:55,139 --> 00:09:55,980
总体而言

288
00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:58,509
我认为科技股现在非常便宜

289
00:09:58,509 --> 00:10:01,870
科技股传统上增速快于标普

290
00:10:01,870 --> 00:10:05,350
但目前估值与标普持平

291
00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:06,679
如果您看这张图表

292
00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:11,450
可以看到科技市盈率比率

293
00:10:11,450 --> 00:10:14,649
除以标普500的市盈率

294
00:10:14,649 --> 00:10:14,929
现在

295
00:10:14,929 --> 00:10:17,049
基于未来12个月

296
00:10:17,049 --> 00:10:17,970
和tm

297
00:10:17,970 --> 00:10:19,279
因此这是前向市盈率

298
00:10:19,279 --> 00:10:24,059
可以看到科技股相对于标普500

299
00:10:24,059 --> 00:10:30,690
现在比疫情低点时更便宜

300
00:10:30,690 --> 00:10:32,578
且大幅更便宜

301
00:10:32,578 --> 00:10:35,999
他们在2022年熊市底部的位置

302
00:10:35,999 --> 00:10:36,639
所以是的

303
00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:38,038
科技股的止损点看起来非常便宜

304
00:10:38,038 --> 00:10:39,719
商店奥罗拉估值表

305
00:10:39,719 --> 00:10:39,979
哦

306
00:10:39,979 --> 00:10:40,740
顺便说一句

307
00:10:40,740 --> 00:10:46,000
今年上半年将向所有商店订阅用户开放

308
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:47,259
目前仍处于测试阶段

309
00:10:47,259 --> 00:10:48,419
尚未正式发布

310
00:10:48,419 --> 00:10:51,159
但今年上半年会再次推出

311
00:10:51,159 --> 00:10:51,799
所以目前

312
00:10:51,799 --> 00:10:54,049
我将定期分享这份评测

313
00:10:54,049 --> 00:10:58,139
从这张表中可以看到当前市场中被高估的股票

314
00:10:58,139 --> 00:11:00,179
还有一些仍然严重高估

315
00:11:00,179 --> 00:11:03,809
这意味着它们超过内在价值30%以上

316
00:11:03,809 --> 00:11:05,809
这些都是这里的股票

317
00:11:05,809 --> 00:11:08,929
然后还有略微高估的股票

318
00:11:08,929 --> 00:11:10,409
在10%到30%之间

319
00:11:10,409 --> 00:11:12,169
这些是被高估的股票

320
00:11:12,169 --> 00:11:14,629
这些是估值合理的股票

321
00:11:14,629 --> 00:11:17,809
在内在价值正负10%范围内

322
00:11:17,809 --> 00:11:21,710
然后还有这里被低估10%到30%的股票

323
00:11:21,710 --> 00:11:24,330
现在极度被低估的股票

324
00:11:24,330 --> 00:11:26,529
当然不要只因为价格下跌就买入股票

325
00:11:26,529 --> 00:11:29,850
不要因为价格大幅下跌就买入止损点

326
00:11:29,850 --> 00:11:31,090
仅仅因为看起来便宜就买入股票

327
00:11:31,090 --> 00:11:32,929
因为便宜可能变得更便宜

328
00:11:32,929 --> 00:11:35,250
如果下跌是错误原因导致的

329
00:11:35,250 --> 00:11:39,289
首先需要问自己当股价下跌时

330
00:11:39,289 --> 00:11:40,990
是因为宏观经济原因

331
00:11:40,990 --> 00:11:42,330
是情绪驱动原因

332
00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:44,828
还是公司特定原因

333
00:11:44,828 --> 00:11:46,208
如果是情绪驱动原因

334
00:11:46,208 --> 00:11:50,068
比如战争或国债收益率上升

335
00:11:50,068 --> 00:11:53,279
或者油价上涨

336
00:11:53,279 --> 00:11:55,580
或者AI情绪影响

337
00:11:55,580 --> 00:11:58,129
这属于宏观情绪因素

338
00:11:58,129 --> 00:12:00,889
如果股票因这些因素下跌

339
00:12:00,889 --> 00:12:01,710
我不会担心

340
00:12:01,710 --> 00:12:04,649
因为公司基本面依然优秀

341
00:12:04,649 --> 00:12:07,149
对的，这些情绪会迅速变化

342
00:12:07,149 --> 00:12:09,519
股价也会快速反弹

343
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,679
但如果股票因公司特定原因下跌

344
00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:18,129
例如公司营收或利润下降

345
00:12:18,129 --> 00:12:20,309
财务状况发生改变

346
00:12:20,309 --> 00:12:21,929
我需要问的问题是

347
00:12:21,929 --> 00:12:24,570
这是短期心理问题

348
00:12:24,570 --> 00:12:27,350
还是长期结构性问题

349
00:12:27,350 --> 00:12:29,789
如果是短期心理问题

350
00:12:29,789 --> 00:12:34,350
比如可能因诉讼损失或并购导致利润下降

351
00:12:34,350 --> 00:12:35,490
那没问题对吧

352
00:12:35,490 --> 00:12:37,389
我会买这些因为是短期的

353
00:12:37,389 --> 00:12:40,099
最终营收利润会反弹回来

354
00:12:40,099 --> 00:12:46,538
但如果这是长期结构性原因影响长期竞争优势

355
00:12:46,538 --> 00:12:47,950
这可能导致

356
00:12:47,950 --> 00:12:48,570
呃

357
00:12:48,570 --> 00:12:50,850
长期来看营收和利润持续下滑

358
00:12:50,850 --> 00:12:52,330
这些股票我不会碰

359
00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:53,629
不管多便宜都不碰

360
00:12:53,629 --> 00:12:55,230
现在不会碰它们

361
00:12:55,230 --> 00:12:57,370
有时候情况会有些模糊

362
00:12:57,370 --> 00:12:59,950
比如我不确定是否被颠覆了

363
00:12:59,950 --> 00:13:02,759
在这种情况下不要买入

364
00:13:02,759 --> 00:13:04,200
千万不要买啊

365
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,220
只买非常明确的案例

366
00:13:07,220 --> 00:13:09,899
所以我现在给你一些例子

367
00:13:09,899 --> 00:13:11,340
分析的最佳方法

368
00:13:11,340 --> 00:13:13,740
可以使用许多工具分析

369
00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:16,500
这也是我团队创建oracle的原因

370
00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:19,519
因为oracle能分析所有数据点

371
00:13:19,519 --> 00:13:23,080
所有指标都能轻松快速分析

372
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:27,559
尤其是AI洞察工具和评估模型

373
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,639
让我们看看几只股票例子

374
00:13:29,639 --> 00:13:34,029
我认为这些是因情绪下跌的

375
00:13:34,029 --> 00:13:35,830
或因做空心理下跌的

376
00:13:35,830 --> 00:13:40,019
我认为适合长期持有的

377
00:13:40,019 --> 00:13:42,379
这不是给你购买的建议

378
00:13:42,379 --> 00:13:45,820
但这些是我自己持有的股票

379
00:13:45,820 --> 00:13:47,460
让我们看看几个例子

380
00:13:47,460 --> 00:13:49,200
第一个例子是Meta

381
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:50,379
最近在新闻中频繁出现

382
00:13:50,379 --> 00:13:53,528
股价再次大幅下跌

383
00:13:53,528 --> 00:13:54,808
因为很多愚蠢的结果

384
00:13:54,808 --> 00:13:56,729
让我们仔细看看Meta

385
00:13:56,729 --> 00:13:58,308
另一个例子是

386
00:13:58,308 --> 00:13:59,460
呃

387
00:13:59,899 --> 00:14:00,659
微软

388
00:14:00,659 --> 00:14:03,740
微软现在又被严重低估

389
00:14:03,740 --> 00:14:05,620
因为很多愚蠢的原因

390
00:14:05,620 --> 00:14:08,419
并不真正合理下跌

391
00:14:08,419 --> 00:14:11,068
当然谷歌股价也下跌了

392
00:14:11,073 --> 00:14:13,528
稍微被低估了

393
00:14:13,528 --> 00:14:15,288
但仍在10%以内

394
00:14:15,288 --> 00:14:17,668
仍处于合理估值区间

395
00:14:17,668 --> 00:14:22,980
但仍值得观察和帕洛阿尔托

396
00:14:22,980 --> 00:14:25,889
现在也被低估了

397
00:14:25,889 --> 00:14:27,950
让我们看看这些例子

398
00:14:27,950 --> 00:14:28,409
好的

399
00:14:28,409 --> 00:14:30,149
现在从微软开始

400
00:14:30,149 --> 00:14:34,190
微软从555美元下跌

401
00:14:34,190 --> 00:14:36,389
去年降至三百五十六美元

402
00:14:36,389 --> 00:14:38,409
因此下降了约35%

403
00:14:41,029 --> 00:14:46,549
所以让我们看看微软，问题在于

404
00:14:46,549 --> 00:14:49,769
你知道的

405
00:14:49,769 --> 00:14:50,149
不要只买入股票

406
00:14:50,149 --> 00:14:51,070
因为你大幅下跌了

407
00:14:51,070 --> 00:14:51,990
要问自己

408
00:14:51,990 --> 00:14:52,590
这是一家伟大的公司吗

409
00:14:52,590 --> 00:14:53,870
这是一家高质量的公司吗

410
00:14:53,870 --> 00:14:55,370
它是否具备高质量

411
00:14:55,370 --> 00:14:57,730
显然微软非常非常高质量

412
00:14:57,730 --> 00:14:59,450
从基本面来看

413
00:14:59,450 --> 00:15:00,149
嗯

414
00:15:00,149 --> 00:15:01,129
我们来看甲骨文

415
00:15:01,129 --> 00:15:03,059
看看这里的财务数据

416
00:15:03,299 --> 00:15:05,539
首先可以看出这是白色模式公司

417
00:15:05,539 --> 00:15:08,220
具有很强的竞争优势

418
00:15:08,789 --> 00:15:10,929
从财务数据来看

419
00:15:10,929 --> 00:15:13,169
可以看到收入强劲增长

420
00:15:13,169 --> 00:15:15,250
收入仍在强劲增长

421
00:15:15,250 --> 00:15:17,460
营业利润强劲增长

422
00:15:17,460 --> 00:15:18,379
嗯

423
00:15:18,379 --> 00:15:20,600
经营现金流强劲增长

424
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,559
自由现金流强劲增长

425
00:15:23,559 --> 00:15:26,299
在这样的情况下可以发现

426
00:15:26,299 --> 00:15:27,559
当股价下跌时

427
00:15:27,559 --> 00:15:30,730
这是宏观经济情绪原因

428
00:15:30,970 --> 00:15:32,629
还是公司特定原因

429
00:15:32,629 --> 00:15:36,629
在此案例中可以看出业务一切正常

430
00:15:36,629 --> 00:15:39,100
这是宏观经济情绪原因

431
00:15:39,100 --> 00:15:40,159
原因是什么

432
00:15:40,159 --> 00:15:40,899
首要原因

433
00:15:40,899 --> 00:15:44,340
当然首先是中东战争影响整体市场情绪

434
00:15:44,340 --> 00:15:44,600
没错

435
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,740
谁关心这个只是短期问题

436
00:15:46,740 --> 00:15:50,080
最终大家会和解继续前行

437
00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:51,919
我们继续前进

438
00:15:51,919 --> 00:15:52,740
好的

439
00:15:52,740 --> 00:15:54,539
另一种可能是核战争

440
00:15:54,539 --> 00:15:55,100
我们都会死亡

441
00:15:55,100 --> 00:15:56,899
那时金钱就不再重要

442
00:15:56,899 --> 00:15:57,179
好的

443
00:15:57,179 --> 00:15:58,539
这就是第一个原因

444
00:15:58,539 --> 00:16:00,860
第二个原因更具体

445
00:16:00,860 --> 00:16:02,789
市场不看好

446
00:16:02,789 --> 00:16:08,450
微软增加66%的资本支出建设数据中心

447
00:16:08,450 --> 00:16:08,950
并且

448
00:16:08,950 --> 00:16:09,629
当然

449
00:16:09,629 --> 00:16:12,220
这在短期内侵蚀了利润率

450
00:16:12,220 --> 00:16:12,919
现在

451
00:16:12,919 --> 00:16:16,179
这和亚马逊与谷歌的论点相同

452
00:16:16,179 --> 00:16:20,090
他们在人工智能数据中心容量上投入巨大

453
00:16:20,090 --> 00:16:22,889
短期内这会减少他们的自由现金流

454
00:16:22,889 --> 00:16:24,350
压缩其利润率

455
00:16:24,350 --> 00:16:29,200
因此问题在于这是短期问题还是长期结构性问题

456
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:30,080
这是短期问题

457
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:31,539
这是短期利润率下降

458
00:16:31,539 --> 00:16:31,879
事实上

459
00:16:31,879 --> 00:16:37,139
这将增强他们在长期的竞争地位

460
00:16:37,139 --> 00:16:39,049
在我看来这不是问题

461
00:16:39,049 --> 00:16:42,529
市场的问题在于过于关注短期

462
00:16:42,529 --> 00:16:45,049
要求公司短期盈利

463
00:16:45,049 --> 00:16:51,149
但有时公司需牺牲短期利润以构建长期收入流

464
00:16:51,149 --> 00:16:52,629
同样适用于Mercado Libre

465
00:16:52,629 --> 00:16:53,750
亚马逊和微软

466
00:16:53,750 --> 00:16:55,990
第二个问题我并不担心

467
00:16:55,990 --> 00:16:56,710
完全不担心

468
00:16:56,710 --> 00:16:59,629
第三个问题是更行业特定的

469
00:16:59,629 --> 00:17:01,070
这是基因

470
00:17:01,070 --> 00:17:02,659
AI领域

471
00:17:02,659 --> 00:17:04,819
正在颠覆所有软件公司

472
00:17:04,819 --> 00:17:05,420
是的

473
00:17:05,420 --> 00:17:07,880
它们仍是软件企业

474
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,579
面临较高颠覆风险

475
00:17:10,579 --> 00:17:12,079
微软在我看来

476
00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:13,039
我不太担心

477
00:17:13,039 --> 00:17:15,259
原因在于微软第一

478
00:17:15,259 --> 00:17:17,180
其模式极其强大

479
00:17:17,180 --> 00:17:18,579
观察一下

480
00:17:18,579 --> 00:17:19,119
呃

481
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:19,980
市场份额

482
00:17:19,980 --> 00:17:20,900
如果我们查看

483
00:17:20,900 --> 00:17:22,140
以Oracle为例

484
00:17:22,140 --> 00:17:23,269
IQ

485
00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:24,390
呃

486
00:17:24,390 --> 00:17:26,349
转向更

487
00:17:26,349 --> 00:17:26,789
可以看到

488
00:17:26,789 --> 00:17:28,670
他们拥有十中之九的份额

489
00:17:28,670 --> 00:17:29,150
换句话说

490
00:17:29,150 --> 00:17:33,599
这类公司基本垄断市场

491
00:17:33,599 --> 00:17:36,759
未来二十年几乎无法颠覆

492
00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:38,799
这就是为何评分为九分

493
00:17:38,799 --> 00:17:42,619
约95%财富

494
00:17:42,619 --> 00:17:45,500
五百强企业使用微软Azure

495
00:17:45,500 --> 00:17:46,589
作为云服务

496
00:17:46,589 --> 00:17:48,430
以及生产力套件

497
00:17:48,430 --> 00:17:50,369
因此占据95%市场份额

498
00:17:50,369 --> 00:17:53,259
客户留存率达99%

499
00:17:53,259 --> 00:17:54,859
续约率达99%

500
00:17:54,859 --> 00:17:54,980
所以

501
00:17:54,980 --> 00:17:55,460
换句话说

502
00:17:55,460 --> 00:17:58,500
这些大公司每年都持续使用微软

503
00:17:58,500 --> 00:17:59,859
因为成本太高

504
00:17:59,859 --> 00:18:02,880
转向替代方案太昂贵

505
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,940
会导致数月的生产力损失

506
00:18:05,940 --> 00:18:07,809
因此他们被系统锁定了

507
00:18:07,809 --> 00:18:10,529
微软有自己的Agent 365

508
00:18:11,529 --> 00:18:15,069
能满足企业部署代理的需求

509
00:18:15,069 --> 00:18:17,589
他们更可能使用Agent 365

510
00:18:17,589 --> 00:18:20,329
而非使用来自不同供应商的外部代理

511
00:18:20,329 --> 00:18:25,559
这会带来大量监管和安全风险

512
00:18:25,559 --> 00:18:27,200
所以我对此并不太担心

513
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:31,119
真正令人担忧的是

514
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:31,839
但再说一遍

515
00:18:31,839 --> 00:18:32,640
我并不太担心

516
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:33,740
我解释原因

517
00:18:33,740 --> 00:18:34,740
我认为

518
00:18:34,740 --> 00:18:39,480
微软大幅下跌的主要原因在于OpenAI

519
00:18:39,839 --> 00:18:41,839
所以OpenAI为何如此重要

520
00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:43,240
如你所知

521
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,119
他们现在拥有CGPT

522
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,690
微软

523
00:18:48,049 --> 00:18:50,589
持有OpenAI 27%的股份

524
00:18:50,589 --> 00:18:51,410
正如你所知

525
00:18:51,410 --> 00:18:53,309
OpenAI正在失去市场份额

526
00:18:53,309 --> 00:18:59,970
市场份额已从86%降至约60%左右

527
00:18:59,970 --> 00:19:01,970
我现在不再使用CGPT

528
00:19:01,970 --> 00:19:05,559
更多使用Gemini和Entropic Clo

529
00:19:05,559 --> 00:19:06,839
他们正在失去市场份额

530
00:19:06,839 --> 00:19:07,900
并且正在亏损

531
00:19:07,900 --> 00:19:11,859
未来几年看不到盈利前景

532
00:19:11,859 --> 00:19:12,359
我不知道

533
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,940
五到八年左右

534
00:19:14,940 --> 00:19:18,549
今年预计亏损140亿美元，还将继续

535
00:19:18,549 --> 00:19:19,569
让我核对一下数字

536
00:19:19,569 --> 00:19:23,289
今年将再亏损1150亿至2029年

537
00:19:23,289 --> 00:19:23,949
好的

538
00:19:23,949 --> 00:19:24,868
那么主要担忧是什么

539
00:19:24,868 --> 00:19:25,788
当前的担忧是

540
00:19:25,788 --> 00:19:28,169
我六个月前就说过

541
00:19:28,169 --> 00:19:33,089
我认为OpenAI将沦为雅虎或诺基亚

542
00:19:33,089 --> 00:19:35,049
我不认为他们会破产

543
00:19:35,049 --> 00:19:37,609
但会大幅丧失相关性

544
00:19:37,609 --> 00:19:41,670
OpenAI的价值将显著下降

545
00:19:41,670 --> 00:19:42,549
好的现在

546
00:19:42,549 --> 00:19:45,009
这将从几个方面影响微软

547
00:19:45,009 --> 00:19:50,279
首先微软持有OpenAI 27%的股份

548
00:19:50,279 --> 00:19:52,019
当OpenAI

549
00:19:52,019 --> 00:19:54,400
他们正在筹备IPO

550
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:55,200
我觉得它可能会失败

551
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:55,720
不过不管怎样

552
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:56,579
但我希望它成功

553
00:19:56,579 --> 00:20:01,469
但假设它真的失败，且价值归零

554
00:20:01,469 --> 00:20:02,648
这可能性很低

555
00:20:02,648 --> 00:20:03,769
但假设它归零

556
00:20:03,769 --> 00:20:04,308
好的

557
00:20:04,308 --> 00:20:05,808
微软会损失多少

558
00:20:05,808 --> 00:20:10,920
微软将损失约1350亿美元

559
00:20:11,890 --> 00:20:13,970
如果OpenAI归零

560
00:20:13,970 --> 00:20:16,730
因为他们需要核销全部投资

561
00:20:16,730 --> 00:20:18,690
完全亏损的可能性依然不大

562
00:20:18,690 --> 00:20:20,710
但让我们考虑最坏情况

563
00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:22,630
他们在OpenAI上的投资损失1350亿

564
00:20:22,630 --> 00:20:24,470
在他们持有的OpenAI股权上

565
00:20:24,470 --> 00:20:24,789
好的

566
00:20:24,789 --> 00:20:27,750
空头的第二个担忧是约4%

567
00:20:27,750 --> 00:20:34,539
5%的微软云Azure业务已被OpenAI预订

568
00:20:34,539 --> 00:20:37,929
这些是剩余的履约义务

569
00:20:37,929 --> 00:20:43,339
价值约2810亿美元

570
00:20:43,339 --> 00:20:43,880
好的

571
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,259
如果OpenAI直接归零

572
00:20:47,259 --> 00:20:47,980
会发生什么

573
00:20:47,980 --> 00:20:49,539
那么所有这些

574
00:20:49,539 --> 00:20:51,960
预订额度将归零

575
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:52,240
对

576
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:53,339
整个项目归零

577
00:20:53,339 --> 00:20:55,200
让我们假设最坏情况

578
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:59,769
微软4.5%的云业务消失

579
00:20:59,769 --> 00:21:00,309
好的

580
00:21:00,309 --> 00:21:02,170
这里损失335亿美元

581
00:21:02,170 --> 00:21:03,609
这里再损失210亿美元

582
00:21:03,609 --> 00:21:05,369
当然这还不止

583
00:21:05,369 --> 00:21:08,960
股价倍数也会受损

584
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,159
因为会拖慢Azure增长

585
00:21:11,159 --> 00:21:11,638
现在

586
00:21:11,638 --> 00:21:14,019
我用多个AI模型进行模拟

587
00:21:14,019 --> 00:21:14,318
好的

588
00:21:14,318 --> 00:21:15,699
在这种情景下

589
00:21:15,699 --> 00:21:19,378
微软市值的最大冲击是多少

590
00:21:19,378 --> 00:21:22,179
最坏情况下的冲击是

591
00:21:22,499 --> 00:21:23,939
让我核对数据

592
00:21:23,939 --> 00:21:29,719
实际冲击达1.6万亿美元

593
00:21:29,719 --> 00:21:33,049
但股价已提前下跌

594
00:21:33,049 --> 00:21:37,079
市值已实际缩水1.47万亿美元

595
00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:38,140
换句话说

596
00:21:38,140 --> 00:21:41,839
大部分已反映在市场

597
00:21:41,839 --> 00:21:45,099
这种最坏情况已被充分定价

598
00:21:45,099 --> 00:21:49,490
市场几乎完全消化了1.6万亿美元损失

599
00:21:49,490 --> 00:21:53,529
微软市值还需再跌1300亿美元

600
00:21:53,529 --> 00:21:54,849
你可能这么说

601
00:21:54,849 --> 00:21:56,190
有什么股价

602
00:21:56,190 --> 00:22:00,039
大概还会再下跌约4.5%

603
00:22:00,039 --> 00:22:03,500
这将大致相当于340美元

604
00:22:03,500 --> 00:22:04,200
是的

605
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,500
他们现在约340左右对吧

606
00:22:05,500 --> 00:22:06,539
所以啊

607
00:22:06,539 --> 00:22:09,480
如果微软跌至340美元

608
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,200
基本上是在定价开仓

609
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:13,240
它会归零

610
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,750
好的现在

611
00:22:14,750 --> 00:22:15,609
让我告诉你原因

612
00:22:15,609 --> 00:22:18,849
我不认为这真的会发生

613
00:22:18,849 --> 00:22:19,369
好的

614
00:22:19,369 --> 00:22:19,769
所以

615
00:22:19,769 --> 00:22:20,210
首先

616
00:22:20,210 --> 00:22:22,349
即使OpenAI归零

617
00:22:22,349 --> 00:22:23,789
嗯

618
00:22:23,789 --> 00:22:28,160
微软有大量消失的预订订单

619
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,829
他们能否轻松转售这些订单给其他公司

620
00:22:32,829 --> 00:22:35,210
甚至主权AI也是

621
00:22:35,210 --> 00:22:38,009
为什么因为现在是供应受限

622
00:22:38,009 --> 00:22:39,329
不是需求受限

623
00:22:39,329 --> 00:22:43,059
Azure容量有九个月的等待名单

624
00:22:43,059 --> 00:22:44,079
所以无所谓

625
00:22:44,079 --> 00:22:46,160
如果OpenAI倒闭成281元的罪人

626
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,019
他们可以快速转售

627
00:22:48,019 --> 00:22:49,220
很快对吧

628
00:22:49,220 --> 00:22:50,859
他们会收回这笔钱

629
00:22:50,859 --> 00:22:51,420
不用担心

630
00:22:51,420 --> 00:22:51,920
好的

631
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:52,380
现在

632
00:22:52,380 --> 00:22:53,019
在这种情况下

633
00:22:53,019 --> 00:22:53,339
是的

634
00:22:53,339 --> 00:22:55,380
他们可以核销1350亿美元

635
00:22:55,380 --> 00:23:00,960
但微软将吸收OpenAI的全部知识产权

636
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,119
你就会在那里

637
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,480
他们只需改个名字

638
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:03,940
好的

639
00:23:03,940 --> 00:23:05,660
他们能收回投资

640
00:23:05,660 --> 00:23:09,680
别忘了微软持有Anthropic约10%股份

641
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,170
这完全抢走了OpenAI的业务

642
00:23:13,170 --> 00:23:13,750
好的

643
00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:14,529
所以是的

644
00:23:14,529 --> 00:23:17,009
他们不会从1350亿中全部收回

645
00:23:17,009 --> 00:23:23,619
但可能从Anthropic股权中收回三分之一

646
00:23:23,619 --> 00:23:24,660
再次

647
00:23:24,660 --> 00:23:25,660
无需担心

648
00:23:25,660 --> 00:23:27,900
那么微软的估值是多少

649
00:23:27,900 --> 00:23:29,619
微软的估值

650
00:23:29,619 --> 00:23:31,660
基于当前的自由现金流

651
00:23:31,660 --> 00:23:33,548
当前增长率为

652
00:23:33,548 --> 00:23:34,970
呃

653
00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:36,490
那是在哪里

654
00:23:36,490 --> 00:23:38,130
呃，我们是否在

655
00:23:38,130 --> 00:23:39,970
这是五百三十二美元

656
00:23:39,970 --> 00:23:41,670
这就是内在价值

657
00:23:41,670 --> 00:23:42,970
基于当前的

658
00:23:42,970 --> 00:23:44,170
呃

659
00:23:44,170 --> 00:23:45,809
增长与现金流

660
00:23:45,809 --> 00:23:46,369
再说一次

661
00:23:46,369 --> 00:23:48,809
我们讨论的所有关于OpenAI破产的内容

662
00:23:48,809 --> 00:23:50,930
这些都不是确定性

663
00:23:50,930 --> 00:23:54,699
没错，市场倾向于计入最坏情况

664
00:23:54,699 --> 00:23:56,058
所以市场认为这会发生

665
00:23:56,058 --> 00:23:56,919
这已经发生了

666
00:23:56,919 --> 00:23:59,078
因此市场一路下跌

667
00:23:59,078 --> 00:24:00,940
如果它不发生

668
00:24:00,940 --> 00:24:03,920
最坏情况未出现

669
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,690
那么猜怎么着

670
00:24:05,690 --> 00:24:06,869
赞美主

671
00:24:06,869 --> 00:24:07,470
好的

672
00:24:07,470 --> 00:24:09,839
即使真的发生

673
00:24:09,839 --> 00:24:11,099
这里就是打击点

674
00:24:11,099 --> 00:24:12,259
微软会存活下来

675
00:24:12,259 --> 00:24:14,380
微软最终会承受冲击

676
00:24:14,380 --> 00:24:15,680
最终会回升

677
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:16,839
只是需要更长时间

678
00:24:16,839 --> 00:24:18,079
谁知道呢，好吧

679
00:24:18,079 --> 00:24:20,119
但我其实比这更乐观

680
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:21,190
总之

681
00:24:21,190 --> 00:24:22,809
这就是微软

682
00:24:22,809 --> 00:24:24,930
下一个支撑位在哪里

683
00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:25,750
有趣的是

684
00:24:25,750 --> 00:24:27,920
可以看到这是之前的高点

685
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,839
变成了另一个摆动

686
00:24:29,839 --> 00:24:31,559
因此阻力位转为支撑位

687
00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:32,519
所以啊

688
00:24:32,519 --> 00:24:36,628
349是微软较强的支撑位

689
00:24:36,628 --> 00:24:41,849
我现在正在等待微软触及这个支撑位

690
00:24:41,849 --> 00:24:42,829
一旦触及支撑位

691
00:24:42,829 --> 00:24:43,430
当然

692
00:24:43,430 --> 00:24:45,509
如果想更谨慎

693
00:24:45,509 --> 00:24:49,299
可以等待看涨K线形态形成

694
00:24:49,299 --> 00:24:53,750
观察是否形成双重底再反转

695
00:24:53,750 --> 00:24:58,109
当然可能跌破支撑位短期走低

696
00:24:58,109 --> 00:24:59,170
当然一切皆有可能

697
00:24:59,170 --> 00:25:02,569
市场倾向于过度反应重大事件

698
00:25:02,569 --> 00:25:03,029
但再次强调

699
00:25:03,029 --> 00:25:05,650
如果你长期持有

700
00:25:05,650 --> 00:25:07,069
然后到我这里

701
00:25:07,069 --> 00:25:08,000
嗯

702
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,599
我一点也不担心

703
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:13,079
我在微软已经有相当大的持股

704
00:25:13,079 --> 00:25:14,839
多年来我买入了很多

705
00:25:14,839 --> 00:25:15,440
多年

706
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,319
远高于我的成本价

707
00:25:17,319 --> 00:25:19,880
即使再跌20%

708
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,930
30%的跌幅对我来说无关紧要

709
00:25:21,930 --> 00:25:24,509
但我觉得不会下跌

710
00:25:24,509 --> 00:25:27,869
我正在等待它跌到349左右

711
00:25:28,150 --> 00:25:29,230
嗯

712
00:25:29,230 --> 00:25:30,190
我会继续加仓

713
00:25:30,190 --> 00:25:32,769
让我看看是否会上涨

714
00:25:32,769 --> 00:25:33,400
是的

715
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:34,420
就像我说的

716
00:25:34,420 --> 00:25:36,220
340似乎是个

717
00:25:36,220 --> 00:25:36,960
呃

718
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:37,519
情景

719
00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:38,759
它将计入1.6万亿美元的

720
00:25:38,759 --> 00:25:39,859
亏损

721
00:25:39,859 --> 00:25:42,519
那么关于Meta平台再次下跌

722
00:25:42,519 --> 00:25:44,319
以及Alphabet谷歌

723
00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:45,000
所以

724
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,279
上周出现了大幅下跌

725
00:25:47,279 --> 00:25:48,380
事实上已经下跌

726
00:25:48,380 --> 00:25:49,259
同样约30

727
00:25:49,259 --> 00:25:50,269
3%

728
00:25:50,269 --> 00:25:52,529
跌至525美元

729
00:25:52,529 --> 00:25:53,349
所以再次

730
00:25:53,349 --> 00:25:54,690
这是一家优质企业

731
00:25:54,690 --> 00:25:55,430
这是Alphabet

732
00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:56,549
优质企业

733
00:25:56,549 --> 00:25:58,150
我认为是的

734
00:25:58,150 --> 00:25:59,210
所以再看一遍

735
00:25:59,210 --> 00:26:00,269
分析基本面

736
00:26:00,269 --> 00:26:02,109
始终关注基本面

737
00:26:02,109 --> 00:26:04,069
我们来看甲骨文

738
00:26:04,069 --> 00:26:07,279
可以看到确实如此

739
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:10,400
收入持续非常稳定增长

740
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,160
想想看

741
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:12,929
即使在2022年

742
00:26:12,929 --> 00:26:14,489
当股价下跌时

743
00:26:14,489 --> 00:26:17,189
70%的人抛售股票

744
00:26:17,189 --> 00:26:17,969
嘿

745
00:26:17,969 --> 00:26:20,088
2022年的收入

746
00:26:20,088 --> 00:26:20,328
是的

747
00:26:20,328 --> 00:26:21,048
有所下降

748
00:26:21,048 --> 00:26:21,528
但

749
00:26:21,528 --> 00:26:21,949
你知道的

750
00:26:21,949 --> 00:26:23,450
几乎刚刚下跌

751
00:26:23,450 --> 00:26:24,549
然后又回升了

752
00:26:24,549 --> 00:26:26,829
所以市场总是过度反应

753
00:26:26,829 --> 00:26:29,309
所以要关注基本面来指导决策

754
00:26:29,309 --> 00:26:33,729
不要被情绪驱动的市场价格影响情绪

755
00:26:33,729 --> 00:26:34,489
市场情绪

756
00:26:34,489 --> 00:26:35,288
操纵行为

757
00:26:35,288 --> 00:26:37,769
Elgood交易及其他类似操作

758
00:26:37,769 --> 00:26:38,769
关注基本面

759
00:26:39,808 --> 00:26:46,240
营业利润也在持续稳定增长，净利润同样稳步上升

760
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,200
但你可以看到在去年

761
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,888
净利润实际上趋于平缓

762
00:26:51,888 --> 00:26:54,068
运营现金流也是如此

763
00:26:54,068 --> 00:26:57,709
现在运营现金流可见持续增长

764
00:26:57,709 --> 00:27:03,829
但自由现金流在过去十二个月有所下降并趋于平缓

765
00:27:03,829 --> 00:27:05,369
收入增长

766
00:27:05,369 --> 00:27:07,230
营业利润增长

767
00:27:07,230 --> 00:27:09,039
运营现金流增长

768
00:27:09,039 --> 00:27:12,299
但自由现金流和净利润持平

769
00:27:12,299 --> 00:27:14,319
原因在于资本

770
00:27:14,319 --> 00:27:17,730
与亚马逊和微软相同的原因

771
00:27:17,730 --> 00:27:18,529
嗯

772
00:27:18,529 --> 00:27:22,220
Meta在资本支出上投入大量资金用于AI建设

773
00:27:22,220 --> 00:27:24,019
数据中心等设施

774
00:27:24,019 --> 00:27:25,140
市场对此并不看好

775
00:27:25,140 --> 00:27:26,039
市场并不喜欢

776
00:27:26,039 --> 00:27:26,339
哦

777
00:27:26,339 --> 00:27:27,759
为什么你要在这件事上花这么多钱

778
00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:29,720
而利润却趋于平缓

779
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:30,779
他们开始抛售

780
00:27:30,779 --> 00:27:35,000
抛售股票，市场因短期利润下滑而抛售股票

781
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:35,880
由于其

782
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:36,359
嗯

783
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:37,759
对资本支出的投资

784
00:27:37,759 --> 00:27:40,680
以亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta为例

785
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:41,859
我认为这是机会

786
00:27:41,859 --> 00:27:43,359
并非坏事

787
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,659
这并非仅过去一周的情况

788
00:27:45,659 --> 00:27:50,219
Meta和Alphabet股价大幅下跌的主要原因

789
00:27:50,219 --> 00:27:53,480
是因为他们在洛杉矶法院败诉

790
00:27:53,480 --> 00:28:00,309
判定某人因心理健康问题获赔四百万

791
00:28:00,309 --> 00:28:05,839
因为YouTube、Facebook和Instagram过于成瘾

792
00:28:05,839 --> 00:28:08,160
导致心理健康问题

793
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,640
究竟发生了什么 现在必须承担责任

794
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:12,638
首先关于此事

795
00:28:12,638 --> 00:28:15,398
起诉者现年二十岁

796
00:28:16,398 --> 00:28:18,669
她声称

797
00:28:18,669 --> 00:28:20,028
我不清楚

798
00:28:20,028 --> 00:28:20,828
多年前

799
00:28:20,828 --> 00:28:22,229
当她六岁时

800
00:28:22,229 --> 00:28:23,108
她从

801
00:28:23,108 --> 00:28:23,528
我认为

802
00:28:23,528 --> 00:28:24,349
“.snapchat”

803
00:28:24,349 --> 00:28:26,269
然后她沉迷于snapchat

804
00:28:26,269 --> 00:28:28,490
随后八岁时她转战Instagram

805
00:28:28,490 --> 00:28:29,150
接着是YouTube

806
00:28:29,150 --> 00:28:33,170
由于健康问题

807
00:28:34,710 --> 00:28:35,990
真是个胆小鬼

808
00:28:35,990 --> 00:28:38,930
什么草莓屁眼啊，来啊

809
00:28:38,930 --> 00:28:39,869
这简直血腥

810
00:28:39,869 --> 00:28:40,170
荒谬至极

811
00:28:40,170 --> 00:28:41,029
不过话说回来

812
00:28:41,029 --> 00:28:42,230
某种市场平盘

813
00:28:42,230 --> 00:28:42,990
因为他认为

814
00:28:42,990 --> 00:28:43,190
好吧

815
00:28:43,190 --> 00:28:45,250
如果有人起诉他们并胜诉四百万

816
00:28:45,250 --> 00:28:47,420
如果所有人都起诉他们

817
00:28:47,420 --> 00:28:48,859
他们将赢得全世界的钱

818
00:28:48,859 --> 00:28:50,900
没错，这就是股价下跌的原因

819
00:28:50,900 --> 00:28:55,429
另一个担忧是如果因为这个

820
00:28:55,429 --> 00:29:05,019
现在这项立法要求谷歌或YouTube使应用更不吸引人

821
00:29:05,019 --> 00:29:06,079
或减少成瘾性

822
00:29:06,079 --> 00:29:08,279
这会减缓业务增长吗

823
00:29:08,279 --> 00:29:11,369
因此一切都被搁置

824
00:29:11,690 --> 00:29:13,390
所以我认为这相当荒谬

825
00:29:13,390 --> 00:29:13,690
对吧

826
00:29:13,690 --> 00:29:14,670
首先

827
00:29:14,670 --> 00:29:19,279
这些公司不会轻易接受判决

828
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:19,920
他们会上诉

829
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:20,839
对判决提出上诉

830
00:29:20,839 --> 00:29:21,750
上诉上诉

831
00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:24,029
最终即使

832
00:29:24,029 --> 00:29:25,150
即使他们输了

833
00:29:25,150 --> 00:29:26,250
你只需支付小额罚款

834
00:29:26,250 --> 00:29:28,089
这不算大事

835
00:29:28,089 --> 00:29:29,329
好吧

836
00:29:29,930 --> 00:29:35,470
但如果更多立法限制公司

837
00:29:35,549 --> 00:29:39,509
限制应用的互动能力

838
00:29:39,509 --> 00:29:40,609
在我看来

839
00:29:40,609 --> 00:29:41,690
我认为这是好事

840
00:29:41,690 --> 00:29:45,529
因为这项立法不仅影响Meta和谷歌

841
00:29:45,529 --> 00:29:47,650
还会波及所有竞争对手

842
00:29:52,150 --> 00:29:57,930
没错，这还会更严重打击小型竞争者

843
00:29:57,930 --> 00:29:59,809
因为额外合规成本和限制

844
00:29:59,809 --> 00:30:06,109
这实际上会扼杀竞争，让Meta和谷歌更强大

845
00:30:06,109 --> 00:30:06,789
好吧

846
00:30:06,789 --> 00:30:09,490
我认为这不是问题

847
00:30:09,490 --> 00:30:09,930
总之

848
00:30:09,930 --> 00:30:14,789
Meta已将最低年龄限制提高至十三岁以上

849
00:30:14,789 --> 00:30:16,470
S和美国境外地区

850
00:30:16,470 --> 00:30:16,809
澳大利亚

851
00:30:16,809 --> 00:30:17,450
欧洲

852
00:30:17,450 --> 00:30:20,250
开设社交媒体账户需年满十六岁

853
00:30:20,250 --> 00:30:23,769
而在美国十三至十六岁之间

854
00:30:23,769 --> 00:30:24,890
是青少年账户

855
00:30:24,890 --> 00:30:27,940
受家长监管限制

856
00:30:27,940 --> 00:30:31,130
所有这些已经完成

857
00:30:31,130 --> 00:30:33,150
我认为影响已不大

858
00:30:33,150 --> 00:30:35,470
现在我们来看物质的内在价值

859
00:30:35,470 --> 00:30:38,109
嗯，你现在

860
00:30:38,109 --> 00:30:38,630
如果你你

861
00:30:38,630 --> 00:30:40,289
如果你点击内在价值

862
00:30:40,289 --> 00:30:42,829
可以看到基于嗯

863
00:30:42,829 --> 00:30:45,069
折现自由现金流

864
00:30:45,589 --> 00:30:48,559
基于最新自由现金流

865
00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:52,799
根据最新自由现金流，Meta估值达708美元

866
00:30:52,799 --> 00:30:57,809
但最新自由现金流因高资本支出大幅降低

867
00:30:57,809 --> 00:31:00,249
没错，若调整资本支出

868
00:31:00,249 --> 00:31:04,348
用过去五年的平均资本支出来标准化自由现金流

869
00:31:04,348 --> 00:31:09,990
这意味着标准化后的自由现金流会更高

870
00:31:09,990 --> 00:31:14,500
从而内在价值约为814美元

871
00:31:14,500 --> 00:31:20,049
目前Meta股价525美元，明显被低估

872
00:31:20,049 --> 00:31:22,769
从技术支撑位来看

873
00:31:22,769 --> 00:31:25,880
此处有较强支撑

874
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:27,960
这里也曾有支撑位

875
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,980
周五已跌破该支撑位

876
00:31:30,980 --> 00:31:33,400
我打算加仓

877
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:34,279
呃

878
00:31:34,279 --> 00:31:37,259
若能触及下一支撑位

879
00:31:37,259 --> 00:31:40,960
我将切换至日线图展示

880
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,359
当前走势如何

881
00:31:42,359 --> 00:31:42,960
我们准备好了

882
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:43,519
就是这样

883
00:31:43,519 --> 00:31:46,119
这里可以看到

884
00:31:46,119 --> 00:31:47,940
因新闻影响下跌

885
00:31:47,940 --> 00:31:50,130
那边又是一个下跌日

886
00:31:50,130 --> 00:31:52,130
但尼克的支撑位在此

887
00:31:52,130 --> 00:31:56,190
市场通常会回撤测试支撑位

888
00:31:56,190 --> 00:31:58,250
观察是否形成双重底

889
00:31:58,250 --> 00:32:01,730
或先震荡再反弹回升

890
00:32:01,730 --> 00:32:03,410
没人能预测市场

891
00:32:03,410 --> 00:32:06,049
我不是说一定会到，可能不会

892
00:32:06,049 --> 00:32:07,700
或许会在此反弹

893
00:32:07,700 --> 00:32:08,319
谁知道呢

894
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:09,420
但就我个人而言

895
00:32:09,420 --> 00:32:11,460
我已经持有仓位

896
00:32:11,460 --> 00:32:13,618
所以我只打算追加

897
00:32:13,618 --> 00:32:16,519
若跌至下一支撑位

898
00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:19,179
以增加安全边际

899
00:32:19,179 --> 00:32:21,400
在某种程度上

900
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:22,160
字母表公司

901
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:22,579
好的

902
00:32:22,579 --> 00:32:26,329
所以谷歌也因这条新闻受到影响

903
00:32:26,329 --> 00:32:28,740
正如你看到的，谷歌股价下跌了

904
00:32:28,740 --> 00:32:29,460
但呃

905
00:32:29,460 --> 00:32:31,099
它并没有被严重低估

906
00:32:31,099 --> 00:32:32,779
谷歌仍然没有被严重低估

907
00:32:32,779 --> 00:32:36,279
接下来我可能加仓的支撑位

908
00:32:36,279 --> 00:32:37,759
将是270美元

909
00:32:37,759 --> 00:32:39,160
但我会继续加仓

910
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,779
如果触及第二或第三支撑位

911
00:32:41,779 --> 00:32:43,900
这样我会有更大的安全边际

912
00:32:43,900 --> 00:32:44,660
呃

913
00:32:44,660 --> 00:32:46,680
字母表公司的最新内在价值

914
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:47,140
呃

915
00:32:47,140 --> 00:32:48,420
让我把它标在

916
00:32:48,420 --> 00:32:50,539
我们来看看具体数值

917
00:32:53,980 --> 00:32:54,339
是的

918
00:32:54,339 --> 00:32:55,500
大约294美元

919
00:32:55,500 --> 00:32:56,500
294美元

920
00:32:56,500 --> 00:32:57,380
所以呃

921
00:32:57,380 --> 00:33:00,400
现在它略微被低估了

922
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,420
但不如微软或其它公司严重

923
00:33:03,420 --> 00:33:03,940
好的

924
00:33:03,940 --> 00:33:06,579
这里有几个案例供你参考

925
00:33:06,579 --> 00:33:07,019
再次强调

926
00:33:07,019 --> 00:33:08,039
请自行研究

927
00:33:08,039 --> 00:33:09,220
以甲骨文公司为例

928
00:33:09,220 --> 00:33:10,180
非常简单

929
00:33:10,180 --> 00:33:11,700
你可以分析基本面

930
00:33:11,700 --> 00:33:12,779
内在价值

931
00:33:12,779 --> 00:33:13,960
经济模式

932
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,680
我们甚至有AI洞察

933
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:22,000
帮助你快速识别优缺点

934
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,519
看多的理由是什么

935
00:33:24,519 --> 00:33:28,500
但看空的理由又是什么

936
00:33:28,500 --> 00:33:30,700
必须同时考虑正反两面

937
00:33:30,700 --> 00:33:32,500
不能只做多头或空头

938
00:33:32,500 --> 00:33:33,859
要权衡双方观点

939
00:33:33,859 --> 00:33:37,220
如果看多理由强于看空

940
00:33:37,220 --> 00:33:40,789
可能构成投资吸引力

941
00:33:40,789 --> 00:33:46,630
展示未来5-10年增长驱动力

942
00:33:46,630 --> 00:33:50,969
分析短期与长期风险

943
00:33:50,969 --> 00:33:53,528
所以要理解每个企业都有风险

944
00:33:53,528 --> 00:33:58,089
公司如何应对市场风险

945
00:33:58,089 --> 00:33:59,089
所以不必惊讶

946
00:33:59,089 --> 00:34:01,349
我们可能仍有小幅回调

947
00:34:01,349 --> 00:34:03,289
观察标普500指数图表

948
00:34:03,289 --> 00:34:05,880
可以看到之前的

949
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,320
市场高位波动与38.2%斐波那契比率水平重合

950
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,619
二个百分点斐波那契比率水平

951
00:34:11,619 --> 00:34:16,809
因此该水平下方还有约3%的回调空间

952
00:34:16,809 --> 00:34:21,650
这是它突破首个支撑位后的首个支撑位

953
00:34:21,650 --> 00:34:26,028
周线烛图50日移动平均线支撑

954
00:34:26,028 --> 00:34:27,028
这就是下一个关键水平

955
00:34:27,028 --> 00:34:27,588
我正在关注

956
00:34:27,588 --> 00:34:29,688
约为6164点

957
00:34:29,688 --> 00:34:31,088
如果突破此位

958
00:34:31,088 --> 00:34:35,380
下一个支撑位将位于50%斐波那契水平

959
00:34:35,380 --> 00:34:39,139
这将代表当前水平再下跌约7%

960
00:34:39,139 --> 00:34:43,150
因此无法准确预测市场底部

961
00:34:43,150 --> 00:34:45,590
但在中期选举年期间

962
00:34:45,590 --> 00:34:47,090
预计会出现这种波动性

963
00:34:47,090 --> 00:34:49,969
但通常到年底时

964
00:34:49,969 --> 00:34:51,630
我们将迎来强劲反弹

965
00:34:51,630 --> 00:34:55,610
我仍希望今年能以积极态势结束

966
00:34:55,610 --> 00:34:57,099
只要再次

967
00:34:57,099 --> 00:34:59,619
国王唐尼和加雅托拉

968
00:34:59,619 --> 00:35:00,860
他们找到出路

969
00:35:00,860 --> 00:35:02,559
如果你想观看我的最新视频

970
00:35:02,559 --> 00:35:04,900
立即点击订阅按钮

971
00:35:04,900 --> 00:35:05,880
点击铃铛图标

972
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,630
以便我上传新视频时即时收到通知

973
00:35:09,630 --> 00:35:11,969
如果你想了解我的在线课程

974
00:35:11,969 --> 00:35:14,219
前往piranhaprofits.com

975
00:35:17,500 --> 00:35:20,429
并从全球各地创收

976
00:35:20,429 --> 00:35:23,849
如果你想加入我的实时财富学院项目

977
00:35:23,849 --> 00:35:26,389
访问wealthacademyglobal.com

978
00:35:30,190 --> 00:35:30,949
我是亚当·库尔

979
00:35:30,949 --> 00:35:32,860
愿市场与你同在

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