BV1QdonB9EXj · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:00,680 大家好 2 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:01,700 欢迎回到视野 3 00:00:01,700 --> 00:00:02,740 环球财经 4 00:00:02,740 --> 00:00:03,560 我是right now 5 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,160 现在是美东时间26年4月21号 6 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:08,509 周二晚上的8.35分 7 00:00:08,509 --> 00:00:08,990 呃 8 00:00:08,990 --> 00:00:09,550 不好意思啊 9 00:00:09,550 --> 00:00:12,050 今天这个节目上传又搞晚了点啊 10 00:00:12,050 --> 00:00:13,759 看热闹去了呃 11 00:00:13,759 --> 00:00:17,179 今天这个盘中呢是随着美伊停火协议 12 00:00:17,179 --> 00:00:19,210 即将于明天到期 13 00:00:19,210 --> 00:00:19,489 呃 14 00:00:19,489 --> 00:00:20,410 再加上呢 15 00:00:20,410 --> 00:00:21,050 昨天啊 16 00:00:21,050 --> 00:00:22,379 美国总统川普说 17 00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:25,899 再次延长停火协议的概率极低啊 18 00:00:25,899 --> 00:00:29,120 所以呢今天的市场呢是小幅承压 19 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:30,600 不过啊咱们看到啊 20 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,000 今天的指数期货啊 21 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,609 是完全在盘后走了一个V型反转 22 00:00:36,609 --> 00:00:40,530 因为美国总统川普是单方面宣布 23 00:00:40,530 --> 00:00:43,130 延长了停火协议啊 24 00:00:43,130 --> 00:00:46,200 又又又又又又延期了呃 25 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,340 那么但是呢会继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡 26 00:00:49,340 --> 00:00:51,229 直到谈判结束 27 00:00:51,229 --> 00:00:52,789 所以呢今天咱们看到啊 28 00:00:52,789 --> 00:00:55,570 股市盘后呢是大幅反弹 29 00:00:55,570 --> 00:00:58,229 指数期货由跌转涨 30 00:00:58,229 --> 00:00:59,560 V型反转 31 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,880 那么这种消息面反复反转的市场啊 32 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:07,650 很多朋友特别是在做着末日期权的朋友呢 33 00:01:07,650 --> 00:01:09,810 其实真的啊很难做 34 00:01:09,810 --> 00:01:10,209 呃 35 00:01:10,209 --> 00:01:12,030 你呢除了双手一摊 36 00:01:12,030 --> 00:01:13,500 没什么别的办法 37 00:01:13,500 --> 00:01:18,219 毕竟呢你的速度是永远快不过消息面的啊 38 00:01:18,219 --> 00:01:21,340 所以这种市场的短线还比较的难做 39 00:01:21,340 --> 00:01:24,760 今天的节目呢咱们稍微的简短一点啊 40 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,670 然后呢只说几个关键信息 41 00:01:27,670 --> 00:01:29,150 首先我们看一个数据 42 00:01:29,150 --> 00:01:30,469 然后看一看呃 43 00:01:33,930 --> 00:01:37,879 阐述了一系列的政策框架到底有什么不同 44 00:01:37,879 --> 00:01:42,140 然后呢还给大家来聊一聊最近短期的这个市场 45 00:01:42,140 --> 00:01:45,680 它到底是呃什么样的一个情绪啊 46 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,319 是上涨概率大一点呢 47 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,680 还是风险更高一点啊 48 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,180 会给出一些理由 49 00:01:51,180 --> 00:01:53,420 另外呢还有今天的SRG 50 00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:56,730 这边呢我是额财报数据没有更新完啊 51 00:01:56,730 --> 00:02:00,569 但是呢把技术面给大家呃做一下这个展示 52 00:02:00,569 --> 00:02:02,370 给大家看一下现在什么状况啊 53 00:02:02,370 --> 00:02:06,939 后面等完事了之后再给大家做一个补充好额 54 00:02:06,939 --> 00:02:12,810 那咱们呢就先说一下今天的数据呃 55 00:02:12,810 --> 00:02:14,310 今天咱们只看一个数据啊 56 00:02:14,310 --> 00:02:17,079 啊这个数据呢是3月的零售 57 00:02:17,079 --> 00:02:21,259 3月的零售销售环比是增长1.7% 58 00:02:21,259 --> 00:02:23,939 高于之前预测的百分之呃 59 00:02:23,939 --> 00:02:28,090 这个1.4也高于前值的0.6呃 60 00:02:28,090 --> 00:02:31,419 这其中呢主要是汽油销售 61 00:02:31,419 --> 00:02:34,299 大幅增长了15.5%啊 62 00:02:34,299 --> 00:02:37,468 这个是远高于之前预测的1.3%呃 63 00:02:37,468 --> 00:02:38,929 主要原因大家也都知道了 64 00:02:38,929 --> 00:02:42,530 就是美伊冲突后全球油价的上涨 65 00:02:42,530 --> 00:02:45,909 那么剔除汽油和汽车销售后呢 66 00:02:45,909 --> 00:02:50,069 零售增长是增长了0.6%啊 67 00:02:50,069 --> 00:02:53,599 小幅高于之前预期的0.4% 68 00:02:53,599 --> 00:02:55,919 好这个是零售的数据 69 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:59,379 接下来我们就来看一下大盘 70 00:03:01,439 --> 00:03:05,699 首先说一下关于摩根大通的最新的预测啊 71 00:03:05,699 --> 00:03:09,710 今天的是摩根大通额这个交易策略 72 00:03:09,710 --> 00:03:14,250 那边呢是发布了一个更宏观的看涨报告 73 00:03:14,250 --> 00:03:17,449 其中最重要的是对大盘的点位 74 00:03:17,449 --> 00:03:21,429 就是在2026年年中年底的时候 75 00:03:21,429 --> 00:03:22,588 他的点位呢 76 00:03:22,588 --> 00:03:28,639 从之前的7200点上调至7600点 77 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,800 那么上调的原因主要是 78 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,459 人们对人工智能的热情再次高涨 79 00:03:34,459 --> 00:03:37,299 这个有助于推动美国股市 80 00:03:37,299 --> 00:03:40,199 今年达到高于预期的水平 81 00:03:40,199 --> 00:03:41,840 哎这个话说的比较含蓄 82 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,080 我给大家补充一下 83 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,360 就是散户会追涨 84 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,060 市场会追涨啊 85 00:03:47,060 --> 00:03:50,569 那么整体的情绪推高溢价 86 00:03:50,569 --> 00:03:52,689 这是他上调的理由 87 00:03:52,689 --> 00:03:56,050 那么其中当然有一种最为积极的状况 88 00:03:56,050 --> 00:03:58,229 就是盈利状况也大好 89 00:03:58,229 --> 00:04:01,310 然后美伊这边尽快结束冲突 90 00:04:01,310 --> 00:04:07,150 开放海峡最乐观的情况甚至能高看至8000点啊 91 00:04:07,150 --> 00:04:07,650 年底啊 92 00:04:07,650 --> 00:04:11,120 当然那个是属于更加的额溢价的一种情况 93 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,900 那个要达到按照他们的标准呃 94 00:04:13,900 --> 00:04:15,960 标普的前瞻EPS 95 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,220 前瞻的PE要达到23倍啊 96 00:04:18,220 --> 00:04:21,620 那这个就超出历史的较高值的22倍 97 00:04:21,620 --> 00:04:24,930 基本上是来到了99%的这个 98 00:04:24,930 --> 00:04:25,769 高位水平了啊 99 00:04:25,769 --> 00:04:29,160 那个是一种比较呃最乐观的情况 100 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,959 但他们的一个基准预测是7600啊 101 00:04:31,959 --> 00:04:34,740 从7200预测到上调到7600 102 00:04:34,740 --> 00:04:38,569 原因是大家对于人工智能乐观给出一定的溢价 103 00:04:39,608 --> 00:04:39,848 好 104 00:04:39,848 --> 00:04:42,180 这个呢是对于呃 105 00:04:42,180 --> 00:04:46,439 摩根大通上调目前的这个点位的状况呃 106 00:04:46,439 --> 00:04:48,500 那么我呢对于这个点位啊 107 00:04:48,500 --> 00:04:52,000 我还需要等到整个的二季度啊 108 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,779 一季度的这个财报结束之后 109 00:04:53,779 --> 00:04:55,480 我才能给大家一个更新 110 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,540 那么在上一次的更新之后 111 00:04:57,540 --> 00:04:58,939 最新的状况里边 112 00:04:58,939 --> 00:05:03,060 我的上方的这个预测这个测算范围啊 113 00:05:03,060 --> 00:05:04,420 基于22倍的测算范围 114 00:05:04,420 --> 00:05:06,680 大概在7400点左右啊 115 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:07,699 7400左右 116 00:05:07,699 --> 00:05:10,610 下方大概在六千一百五十六千二左右啊 117 00:05:10,610 --> 00:05:14,800 这是上一次在四季度之后的一个更新结果 118 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:15,899 那么在一季度之后呢 119 00:05:15,899 --> 00:05:17,819 会给大家继续来进行一个更新啊 120 00:05:17,819 --> 00:05:20,639 看看最终这个标普合理的 121 00:05:20,639 --> 00:05:22,278 18~22倍的交易区间 122 00:05:22,278 --> 00:05:24,889 应该在哪些范围之内 123 00:05:24,889 --> 00:05:26,769 好这个是长线的事情 124 00:05:26,769 --> 00:05:29,399 我们需要等财报等基本面 125 00:05:29,399 --> 00:05:33,800 那我想现在呢给大家谈一点短期的看法啊 126 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:38,339 就是大盘短期到底会走成什么样子 127 00:05:38,740 --> 00:05:39,620 额这样吧 128 00:05:39,620 --> 00:05:40,180 我先这样吧 129 00:05:40,180 --> 00:05:42,459 我把大盘的短期的看法再往后放一下啊 130 00:05:42,459 --> 00:05:44,819 还是把那个美联储的这个握时的 131 00:05:44,819 --> 00:05:45,860 再跟大家先抢一下吧 132 00:05:45,860 --> 00:05:48,100 不然等会我怕忘记了好 133 00:05:48,100 --> 00:05:50,439 首先给大家看一下卧室的整体的 134 00:05:50,439 --> 00:05:53,839 今天听证会的他阐述的一些内容 135 00:05:55,439 --> 00:05:57,100 那么额沃什呢 136 00:05:57,100 --> 00:05:59,959 今天是阐述了一系列的政策框架 137 00:05:59,959 --> 00:06:04,329 他着重强调了美联储独立性的重要性 138 00:06:04,430 --> 00:06:09,810 并多次表示他不会让总统左右他的利率决策呃 139 00:06:09,810 --> 00:06:11,089 他还否认说 140 00:06:11,089 --> 00:06:15,389 川普曾要求他预先承诺在任何一次会议上降息 141 00:06:15,389 --> 00:06:18,759 并表示他绝对不会这样做 142 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:24,800 那么卧室还表示呢会专注通胀恢复到目标水平 143 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,939 但他表示美联储需要一个新的通胀的框架 144 00:06:28,939 --> 00:06:31,879 诶这个地方那就有文章可做了啊 145 00:06:31,879 --> 00:06:34,009 新的通胀的框架 146 00:06:34,009 --> 00:06:34,970 可能算法 147 00:06:34,970 --> 00:06:39,540 或者说对于数据的采纳就有一些不一样啊 148 00:06:39,540 --> 00:06:41,300 这个我们看看后面会怎么变化啊 149 00:06:41,300 --> 00:06:43,420 因为通胀框架发生变化 150 00:06:43,420 --> 00:06:45,848 比方说如果允许打个比方 151 00:06:45,848 --> 00:06:47,809 他说5年之后我们回到2% 152 00:06:47,809 --> 00:06:51,709 但我允许3年之内能够是33.5%维持 153 00:06:51,709 --> 00:06:53,750 那这个那就是一个新的变化啊 154 00:06:53,750 --> 00:06:55,089 但我这里是一个推测啊 155 00:06:55,089 --> 00:06:56,209 并不知道他要怎么变 156 00:06:56,209 --> 00:06:57,569 但他既然这么说了 157 00:06:57,569 --> 00:07:00,089 肯定有他的想法好 158 00:07:00,089 --> 00:07:02,459 还有就是在货币政策方面 159 00:07:02,459 --> 00:07:05,298 他表示利率工具更加公平 160 00:07:05,298 --> 00:07:08,980 同时强调资产负债表应该缩小 161 00:07:08,980 --> 00:07:13,459 并且不应该持有长期债券诶 162 00:07:13,459 --> 00:07:16,439 那这个东西呢就又是一个新的变化了啊 163 00:07:16,439 --> 00:07:18,620 对于美联储这边的状况 164 00:07:18,620 --> 00:07:20,839 如果不持有长期债券 165 00:07:20,839 --> 00:07:26,019 那当那当未来如果要扩表的时候怎么办啊 166 00:07:26,019 --> 00:07:27,180 缩表的时候可以理解 167 00:07:27,180 --> 00:07:27,959 很容易理解 168 00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:30,639 那如果扩表的时候怎么个扩呢 169 00:07:30,639 --> 00:07:32,019 这个钱怎么个印法呢 170 00:07:32,019 --> 00:07:33,339 哎这也是一个新东西啊 171 00:07:33,339 --> 00:07:36,399 我们现在不清楚它的真实想法 172 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,668 还有呢就是沃什表示他不相信前瞻性的指引 173 00:07:41,668 --> 00:07:44,668 而且呢他对经济潜力持乐观态度 174 00:07:44,668 --> 00:07:47,389 尤其是在人工智能的背景下 175 00:07:47,389 --> 00:07:50,899 还有就是第四个关于透明度啊 176 00:07:50,899 --> 00:07:54,370 卧室表示目前不存在缺乏透明度的问题 177 00:07:54,370 --> 00:07:56,930 并认为每年召开四次以上的 178 00:07:56,930 --> 00:07:59,730 联邦公开市场委员会的会议是合适的 179 00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:03,779 那就相当于维持现有的这个开会的节奏不变啊 180 00:08:03,779 --> 00:08:05,769 基本上季度都有 181 00:08:05,769 --> 00:08:09,350 然后呢季度中间的一些特定月份再补充一些啊 182 00:08:09,350 --> 00:08:10,230 这个是合适的啊 183 00:08:10,230 --> 00:08:12,408 这个就没有什么太大的影响 184 00:08:12,408 --> 00:08:15,829 所以总体看起来呢他会有一些新的改变啊 185 00:08:15,829 --> 00:08:17,848 真正的等他上来之后我们再看吧 186 00:08:17,848 --> 00:08:20,269 不过现在呢他的这个听证会 187 00:08:20,269 --> 00:08:21,810 暂时还是受到了 188 00:08:21,810 --> 00:08:25,069 这个参议员蒂利斯的这个阻挠啊 189 00:08:25,069 --> 00:08:28,230 因为迪利斯这边是拒绝去提名 190 00:08:28,230 --> 00:08:32,750 因为他的说法依旧是延续之前的那个理由呃 191 00:08:32,750 --> 00:08:34,610 如果鲍威尔的调查不结束 192 00:08:34,610 --> 00:08:35,769 他不会提名赢 193 00:08:35,769 --> 00:08:39,070 任何的新的美联储的这个候选人啊 194 00:08:39,070 --> 00:08:40,929 所以目前就卡在他这呃 195 00:08:40,929 --> 00:08:42,809 但那一头呢川普表示说呢 196 00:08:42,809 --> 00:08:44,589 那还要调查鲍威尔对吧 197 00:08:44,589 --> 00:08:45,568 还是需要去 198 00:08:45,568 --> 00:08:46,828 可能不会撤销 199 00:08:46,828 --> 00:08:48,389 那就现在看大家僵着呗 200 00:08:51,740 --> 00:08:53,120 没有新的提名人 201 00:08:54,419 --> 00:08:57,000 那么鲍威尔会继续的留任啊 202 00:09:06,129 --> 00:09:07,470 我们接下来看一下大盘啊 203 00:09:07,470 --> 00:09:09,735 刚才说着说着差点把这个说忘了 204 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:11,500 好 205 00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:14,100 目前大盘的状况呢 206 00:09:14,100 --> 00:09:15,610 刚才讲过 207 00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:17,090 标普就是呃 208 00:09:17,090 --> 00:09:18,909 摩根大通的年底的点位 209 00:09:18,909 --> 00:09:20,940 是上调到了7600点啊 210 00:09:20,940 --> 00:09:22,500 这是一个中长期的位置啊 211 00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:25,710 那么我个人的测算是在7400点左右啊 212 00:09:25,710 --> 00:09:27,289 呃这是测算出来的啊 213 00:09:27,289 --> 00:09:30,429 然后呢我想说一下短期的状况 214 00:09:31,110 --> 00:09:35,509 短期的状况呢是呃我认为啊先说结论吧 215 00:09:35,509 --> 00:09:36,870 总的来看呢 216 00:09:36,870 --> 00:09:42,529 市场整体的短期暂时是偏乐观的啊 217 00:09:42,529 --> 00:09:44,370 就是情绪是偏乐观的 218 00:09:44,370 --> 00:09:47,450 属于这个呢可能要在高位横着啊 219 00:09:47,450 --> 00:09:49,929 或者呢看涨概率小幅 220 00:09:49,929 --> 00:09:52,289 看涨的概率更高的一个状态 221 00:09:52,289 --> 00:09:56,190 就是暂时出现大幅下跌的可能性 222 00:09:56,190 --> 00:09:58,389 相对会低一点点啊 223 00:09:58,389 --> 00:10:00,049 除非伊朗那边马上打仗对吧 224 00:10:00,049 --> 00:10:01,549 就那要直接轰炸了 225 00:10:01,549 --> 00:10:03,289 那就直接原地掉头向杀啊 226 00:10:03,289 --> 00:10:06,769 我们指的是在目前现有稳定的消息面 227 00:10:06,769 --> 00:10:07,850 的情况下啊 228 00:10:07,850 --> 00:10:10,330 中东那边维持现状的情况下 229 00:10:10,330 --> 00:10:15,009 那么高位横着甚至小幅上涨的状况概率更大啊 230 00:10:15,009 --> 00:10:17,850 为什么给大家讲三个理由 231 00:10:18,999 --> 00:10:22,678 第一个原因是今天啊 232 00:10:22,678 --> 00:10:24,438 我相信大家也看到一件事情 233 00:10:24,438 --> 00:10:28,259 就是呃在战争方面呢 234 00:10:28,259 --> 00:10:30,799 通过川普今天的表述啊 235 00:10:30,799 --> 00:10:32,840 咱们更加说明了一件事 236 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,568 就是美国和伊朗双方最终的出路 237 00:10:37,568 --> 00:10:41,009 大概率就是通过谈判来解决啊 238 00:10:41,009 --> 00:10:41,629 为什么呢 239 00:10:41,629 --> 00:10:44,038 因为美国通过武力解决 240 00:10:44,038 --> 00:10:46,759 他付出的政治代价太大了啊 241 00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:47,860 没有办法承受 242 00:10:47,860 --> 00:10:50,799 而伊朗方面呢长期封锁海峡 243 00:10:50,799 --> 00:10:52,940 承受着巨大的经济代价 244 00:10:52,940 --> 00:10:54,799 他也无法承受 245 00:10:54,799 --> 00:10:57,539 那么这个就意味着霍尔木兹海峡 246 00:10:57,539 --> 00:11:02,190 随时都会正真正的重新开放啊 247 00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:03,669 这是一个基准判断 248 00:11:03,669 --> 00:11:06,950 那么大家通过盘后的这个走势也能看出来 249 00:11:06,950 --> 00:11:09,809 只要是溢出利好对吧 250 00:11:09,809 --> 00:11:12,549 那基本上是原地起飞 251 00:11:12,549 --> 00:11:14,549 不仅把盘中的收复了 252 00:11:14,549 --> 00:11:17,230 还给你多长出0.6个点去 253 00:11:17,230 --> 00:11:19,750 你就知道市场是多么的渴望 254 00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,110 多么的希望能够稳定啊 255 00:11:22,110 --> 00:11:23,070 市场能够上涨 256 00:11:23,070 --> 00:11:25,450 都怕我买不着了啊 257 00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:26,350 都这么个概念啊 258 00:11:26,350 --> 00:11:27,870 所以从短期的情绪上 259 00:11:27,870 --> 00:11:31,100 大家还是觉得嗯应该是看涨概率更大啊 260 00:11:31,100 --> 00:11:34,078 这个资金上说是买多的是比较积极的 261 00:11:34,078 --> 00:11:37,849 还有一个呢我们可以看到从下行的表保护上啊 262 00:11:37,849 --> 00:11:40,528 呃从期权的保护上非常便宜非常便宜 263 00:11:40,528 --> 00:11:41,089 意味着什么 264 00:11:41,089 --> 00:11:43,028 意味着买的人不多嘛对吧 265 00:11:43,028 --> 00:11:44,960 所以呢这是第一个点啊 266 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:46,480 第一原因好 267 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,159 第二个原因 268 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,200 第二个原因呢是短期的资金流啊 269 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,600 是利多的啊 270 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,350 就是实质性的资金流 271 00:11:56,350 --> 00:11:58,370 除了CCTA之外 272 00:11:58,370 --> 00:12:00,068 还有回购 273 00:12:00,068 --> 00:12:01,528 马上就开始了 274 00:12:01,528 --> 00:12:04,249 他会帮忙拖住市场的下跌 275 00:12:04,249 --> 00:12:07,548 给大家看一下回购的这个数据 276 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:09,419 呃 277 00:12:09,419 --> 00:12:11,389 这个呢是高盛提供的数据 278 00:12:11,389 --> 00:12:12,669 未来几周啊 279 00:12:12,669 --> 00:12:14,830 回购计划重启呢 280 00:12:14,830 --> 00:12:19,039 是为市场带来了一定的下跌的这个阻力 281 00:12:19,039 --> 00:12:20,940 那么高盛预计呢 282 00:12:20,940 --> 00:12:22,379 截止到今天 283 00:12:22,379 --> 00:12:27,419 约有18%的股票处于这个开放交易窗口 284 00:12:27,419 --> 00:12:28,940 就是可回购的状态 285 00:12:28,940 --> 00:12:32,028 那么到这个周末就是周五结束之后啊 286 00:12:32,028 --> 00:12:33,188 从下个星期开始 287 00:12:33,188 --> 00:12:37,629 预计开放交易的窗口比例达到29%啊 288 00:12:37,629 --> 00:12:39,580 29%的公司就可以回购 289 00:12:39,580 --> 00:12:41,220 那么今年迄今为止 290 00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:45,879 股票回购授权的额度已经达到了创纪录的 291 00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:48,000 4220亿美元 292 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,759 那么这个授权额度呢和20年同期相比 293 00:12:51,759 --> 00:12:54,860 增长了176%呃 294 00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:58,179 如果按照90%的历史执行率去计算啊 295 00:12:58,179 --> 00:13:00,019 就是他这个回购授权有这么多 296 00:13:00,019 --> 00:13:01,340 但不是一定都买完 297 00:13:01,340 --> 00:13:03,289 按照90%的计算 298 00:13:03,289 --> 00:13:06,529 那么美国企业今年有望回购 299 00:13:06,529 --> 00:13:09,730 约1万亿美元的股票 300 00:13:09,730 --> 00:13:12,509 创下历史新高啊 301 00:13:12,509 --> 00:13:15,289 这个是一个非常不错的一个状态哈 302 00:13:15,289 --> 00:13:16,509 这个呢400啊 303 00:13:16,509 --> 00:13:20,139 4200多亿是截止到现在的这个额 304 00:13:20,139 --> 00:13:21,200 这个4月份啊 305 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,440 因为后面还有八个月呢 306 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:23,799 他们会逐渐的会增加啊 307 00:13:23,799 --> 00:13:25,519 根据历史的这个滚动值来看 308 00:13:25,519 --> 00:13:28,950 所以呢他说总额能达到差不多1万亿好 309 00:13:28,950 --> 00:13:30,389 所以这是第二个啊 310 00:13:30,389 --> 00:13:34,429 有一些资金呢它会拖住下跌 311 00:13:35,070 --> 00:13:37,289 那么第三个原因是什么呢 312 00:13:37,289 --> 00:13:40,429 就是空头回补还在继续啊 313 00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:43,855 咱们来看一下其中一个最重要的IGV 314 00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:48,240 呃IGV呢昨天我给大家已经讲过对吧 315 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,259 我们讲过他的一个位置啊 316 00:13:50,259 --> 00:13:52,840 这个位置当时给的是88块六 317 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,059 今天大家看到有所上调啊 318 00:13:55,059 --> 00:13:55,779 为什么上调 319 00:13:55,779 --> 00:13:59,330 因为今天盘中的时候打过88块八 320 00:13:59,330 --> 00:14:02,070 出现了非常大的成交量 321 00:14:02,070 --> 00:14:05,169 所以这个地方依旧有被套住的筹码啊 322 00:14:05,169 --> 00:14:09,340 所以今天我把这个位置上调到了88.9啊 323 00:14:09,340 --> 00:14:10,740 因为今天是一个特殊状况啊 324 00:14:10,740 --> 00:14:12,899 正常来讲成交量不大的情况下 325 00:14:12,899 --> 00:14:14,179 不太会去进行上调 326 00:14:14,179 --> 00:14:16,919 那么今天他这个位置呢是值得去上调的啊 327 00:14:16,919 --> 00:14:19,799 因为它涉及到呃这个回呃 328 00:14:19,799 --> 00:14:23,350 这个叫做额这个回补的持续程度的问题啊 329 00:14:23,350 --> 00:14:25,210 今天最低你看88块一 330 00:14:25,210 --> 00:14:28,190 打上去以后到88块六这个位置 331 00:14:28,190 --> 00:14:29,240 大家看啊 332 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,120 然后形成了两个高峰 333 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,568 然后往上达到了88块八 334 00:14:33,568 --> 00:14:34,928 这个位置仍然是有效 335 00:14:34,928 --> 00:14:36,109 但是呢保险起见 336 00:14:36,109 --> 00:14:38,808 最好以今天的高点88块八往上啊 337 00:14:38,808 --> 00:14:40,429 所以放到88块九 338 00:14:40,429 --> 00:14:42,818 以开盘价或者收盘价为准 339 00:14:42,818 --> 00:14:46,739 它就会推动更进一步的回补的发声啊 340 00:14:46,739 --> 00:14:49,658 同时呢也对整个IGV的上行趋势 341 00:14:49,658 --> 00:14:51,440 奠定了一个比较好的一个基础 342 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,720 好这个都是短期的资金流向啊 343 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,820 所以希望大家也多多的 344 00:14:56,820 --> 00:14:59,029 暂时呢我们说市场的这个很多 345 00:14:59,029 --> 00:15:01,330 看多的一些资金的推动 346 00:15:01,330 --> 00:15:02,570 IGV是一方面 347 00:15:02,570 --> 00:15:04,809 还有罗素其实也有啊 348 00:15:04,809 --> 00:15:06,409 罗素我们之前给大家看过 349 00:15:06,409 --> 00:15:09,049 他的这个空头比例非常的高的啊 350 00:15:09,049 --> 00:15:09,529 非常的高 351 00:15:09,529 --> 00:15:11,279 他最近也是在空头回补 352 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,120 所以走的非常的快啊 353 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,000 走的非常快 354 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:14,960 跌的也多对吧 355 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,659 但是呢回去的也快啊 356 00:15:16,659 --> 00:15:20,049 所以他这个也是属于呃在回补 357 00:15:20,049 --> 00:15:22,049 这个被噶空的一个状态 358 00:15:22,049 --> 00:15:26,899 那么这种东西呢都是可以是短线上帮助市场呃 359 00:15:26,899 --> 00:15:29,539 这个多头去占领一些优势的 360 00:15:29,539 --> 00:15:32,340 好这个呢就是谈到三个理由 361 00:15:32,340 --> 00:15:35,100 为什么短期的状况会多一点啊 362 00:15:35,100 --> 00:15:36,370 就偏多一点 363 00:15:36,370 --> 00:15:39,129 那么中长期状况仍旧要看基本面的状况 364 00:15:39,129 --> 00:15:40,110 就是财报 365 00:15:40,110 --> 00:15:40,809 公司财报 366 00:15:40,809 --> 00:15:43,710 因为下个星期未来两个星期都会有重呃 367 00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:45,730 大量的大科技的财报啊 368 00:15:45,730 --> 00:15:48,860 特别是和AI相关的一些信息会出来 369 00:15:48,860 --> 00:15:52,379 这个星期大的财报呢就是明天的像特斯拉对吧 370 00:15:52,379 --> 00:15:55,379 但特斯拉的业绩本身呃比较一般嘛 371 00:15:55,379 --> 00:15:57,190 预期就那回事儿对吧 372 00:15:57,190 --> 00:15:59,389 无非就是看特斯拉在财报之后 373 00:15:59,389 --> 00:16:02,379 市场的这个压住他400块钱上下 374 00:16:02,379 --> 00:16:03,019 26块钱 375 00:16:03,019 --> 00:16:04,039 他能跑到哪里 376 00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:06,820 是能跑到区间之内还是跑到区间之外的问题啊 377 00:16:06,820 --> 00:16:09,570 就是大概率范围和小概率范围的问题 378 00:16:09,570 --> 00:16:12,149 他如果真的一口气跑到了465上方 379 00:16:12,149 --> 00:16:15,690 那就那那也就出现了极小概率啊那种情况 380 00:16:15,690 --> 00:16:17,809 那就后面就跑得非常飞快了 381 00:16:17,809 --> 00:16:20,070 但通过期权来看呢 382 00:16:20,070 --> 00:16:21,649 概率相对较低一点啊 383 00:16:22,730 --> 00:16:25,850 好呃那么这个呢是几个呃 384 00:16:25,850 --> 00:16:27,610 呃目前短期的一个状况啊 385 00:16:27,610 --> 00:16:30,529 后面长期的东西我们会跟着财报的逐渐披露 386 00:16:30,529 --> 00:16:32,568 和大家再慢慢更新 387 00:16:32,889 --> 00:16:37,528 呃另外呢今天和大家简单的说一下SRG啊 388 00:16:38,940 --> 00:16:42,350 SG的财报呢我是没有更新啊 389 00:16:42,350 --> 00:16:43,110 还没有更新的 390 00:16:43,110 --> 00:16:44,909 这是上次的那个数据啊 391 00:16:44,909 --> 00:16:46,029 大家可以做一个参考啊 392 00:16:46,029 --> 00:16:49,840 回头我更新完了之后再给大家展示呃 393 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,340 其实通过之前的情况来看呢 394 00:16:52,340 --> 00:16:54,610 今天你看呃财报呃 395 00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:56,570 发布其实还比较稳定对吧 396 00:16:56,570 --> 00:16:58,549 也没有什么太大的波澜 397 00:16:58,549 --> 00:17:02,219 他的情况呢是仍旧是偏高啊 398 00:17:02,219 --> 00:17:04,259 因为它的倍数一直偏高啊 399 00:17:04,259 --> 00:17:06,650 它也是一只市场比较抢手的股票 400 00:17:06,650 --> 00:17:08,490 所以呢倍数一直很高 401 00:17:08,490 --> 00:17:11,720 就导致呢看上去价格好像还挺合理呀 402 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,859 但是你要是排除高倍数之外呢 403 00:17:13,859 --> 00:17:14,720 它的增长 404 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,710 然后继续下滑到个位数呢 405 00:17:16,710 --> 00:17:19,109 那他就拿不到这么高的前瞻PE了嘛 406 00:17:19,109 --> 00:17:23,990 那他的下面的这个底线他肯定就要往下掉啊 407 00:17:23,990 --> 00:17:25,349 所以呢我之前啊 408 00:17:25,349 --> 00:17:28,029 上一次在更早的两个季度前的财报 409 00:17:28,029 --> 00:17:29,579 这一波拉升的时候对吧 410 00:17:29,579 --> 00:17:31,960 当时呢我就直接取消了加仓计划 411 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,279 为什么当时是在405以下对吧 412 00:17:35,279 --> 00:17:37,180 405以下掉到427 413 00:17:37,180 --> 00:17:38,359 出了一个财报 414 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:39,900 不是也一般的财报 415 00:17:39,900 --> 00:17:42,440 结果直接一口气涨了13% 416 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,920 回去呢又在上方横盘横了两个季度 417 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,680 慢慢跌下来 418 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,779 你说这个走势讨厌不讨厌对吧 419 00:17:47,779 --> 00:17:48,839 那没意思对吧 420 00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:51,220 走的明明财报就很一般啊 421 00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:52,680 还在高位顶一波 422 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,420 然后出货 423 00:17:53,420 --> 00:17:54,519 出完之后掉下来 424 00:17:54,519 --> 00:17:56,259 那这种情况我就没追嘛 425 00:17:56,259 --> 00:17:59,788 所以我当时直接取消加仓计划诶 426 00:17:59,788 --> 00:18:01,709 那么现在呢今天呢大家会说 427 00:18:01,709 --> 00:18:03,489 那你这个还有没有加仓计划呢 428 00:18:03,489 --> 00:18:04,769 今天没有啊 429 00:18:04,769 --> 00:18:05,989 今天没有加仓计划 430 00:18:05,989 --> 00:18:08,410 提前告诉大家什么时候会更新呢 431 00:18:08,410 --> 00:18:10,990 如果它跌破了430之后 432 00:18:10,990 --> 00:18:13,430 有如果有机会跌破430 433 00:18:13,430 --> 00:18:14,589 我再给大家更新啊 434 00:18:14,589 --> 00:18:15,670 因为现在太早了 435 00:18:15,670 --> 00:18:16,910 现在更新太早了呢 436 00:18:16,910 --> 00:18:17,630 我一说呢 437 00:18:17,630 --> 00:18:21,880 然后到时候呃这个这个到时候大家对吧 438 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:23,619 买的时候那也比较快对吧 439 00:18:23,619 --> 00:18:26,500 然后呢这个地方又又卡住了 440 00:18:26,500 --> 00:18:29,089 卡住以后又得要横盘横搞很久 441 00:18:29,089 --> 00:18:30,930 所以呢跌破430 442 00:18:30,930 --> 00:18:32,769 我认为才有一些趋势会形成啊 443 00:18:32,769 --> 00:18:33,670 没跌破之前 444 00:18:33,670 --> 00:18:35,410 他还有望在这个地方止跌 445 00:18:35,410 --> 00:18:36,809 然后呢做底 446 00:18:36,809 --> 00:18:38,230 然后反弹向上啊 447 00:18:38,230 --> 00:18:39,680 430之前 448 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,319 那我是不会买的好吧 449 00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:42,440 跟大家提前讲一声啊 450 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,940 要买的话也在430跌破之后给大家做个更新 451 00:18:45,940 --> 00:18:47,000 好额 452 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,660 这个呢就是ISRG呃 453 00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:52,380 另外还有就是微软 454 00:18:53,460 --> 00:18:55,019 微软磨磨蹭蹭对吧 455 00:18:55,019 --> 00:18:57,170 他呢明显也在等IGV 456 00:18:57,170 --> 00:18:58,630 呵呵也是大权重啊 457 00:18:58,630 --> 00:18:59,970 所以你可以这么理解 458 00:18:59,970 --> 00:19:01,690 其实IGV如果突破了 459 00:19:01,690 --> 00:19:04,490 可能也就意味着微软也突破了对吧 460 00:19:04,490 --> 00:19:06,730 微软突破了也就是进入右侧了 461 00:19:06,730 --> 00:19:09,750 他这个后面的就看不到太深的下跌了啊 462 00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:12,349 再看到375往下的概率就会变低 463 00:19:12,349 --> 00:19:15,150 因为他的前瞻再往下到26年6月 464 00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:16,230 其实已经低估了 465 00:19:16,230 --> 00:19:18,109 在375以下时间来不及了 466 00:19:18,109 --> 00:19:19,549 现在已经26年4月了 467 00:19:19,549 --> 00:19:20,549 明年要最低的话 468 00:19:20,549 --> 00:19:21,929 要去到434了 469 00:19:21,929 --> 00:19:23,009 所以还是那句话 470 00:19:23,009 --> 00:19:25,288 如果你是长线没有仓位的朋友啊 471 00:19:25,288 --> 00:19:27,440 微软这个价格性价比不错啊 472 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,440 之前375以下没买的 473 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:30,480 那是很更低的 474 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,240 性价比更好的 475 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:31,900 你没买 476 00:19:31,900 --> 00:19:35,230 现在这个价格也是性价比可以的啊 477 00:19:35,230 --> 00:19:37,069 如果还有机会往下过不去 478 00:19:37,069 --> 00:19:38,598 右侧过不了430 479 00:19:38,598 --> 00:19:39,778 又掉头向下了 480 00:19:39,778 --> 00:19:42,318 那下方这些地方仍旧是长线买点啊 481 00:19:42,318 --> 00:19:44,519 我是因为有10%的仓位了 482 00:19:44,519 --> 00:19:47,519 我均价这个持仓成本在185.1 483 00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:48,839 所以我并不着急 484 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:50,519 一定要抢着去买啊 485 00:19:50,519 --> 00:19:51,839 我要去买一个趋势 486 00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:53,000 买一个确定性啊 487 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,400 这是我和大家不一样的地方啊 488 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:55,980 所以你没有仓位的朋友 489 00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:58,240 你的仓位这里分配好一点对吧 490 00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:59,319 375分配好了 491 00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:00,940 1.346分配好了一点 492 00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:02,920 你这不就下方至少有有一个位置 493 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:04,029 你能吃着了吗 494 00:20:04,029 --> 00:20:06,569 你们的成本不就放的比较低了嘛是吧 495 00:20:06,569 --> 00:20:09,349 所以呃因为持仓的情况不一样啊 496 00:20:09,349 --> 00:20:10,690 所以买的就不一样 497 00:20:10,690 --> 00:20:12,680 位置上他的性价比还是比较高的 498 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,960 这个再往呃434以下嘛 499 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,720 放到过了26年6月往后 500 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,079 那他这个性价比就还不错了啊 501 00:20:20,079 --> 00:20:22,079 好所以呢这个大家自己看啊 502 00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:23,920 我呢就是等430突破之后 503 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,279 确定进入右侧之后 504 00:20:25,279 --> 00:20:26,700 我再去找一个买点好吧 505 00:20:26,700 --> 00:20:28,119 不是说再次强调啊 506 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,200 不是一突破10.3马上就买啊 507 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:31,019 我看他的状况 508 00:20:31,019 --> 00:20:33,619 看他是个缩量还是一个放量呃 509 00:20:33,619 --> 00:20:36,119 然后呢因为我预计就算突破了430 510 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,799 他后面有可能还会有一个回撤啊 511 00:20:37,799 --> 00:20:38,440 有一个回踩 512 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,690 因为现在有个什么样的问题呢 513 00:20:40,690 --> 00:20:41,970 背离了啊 514 00:20:41,970 --> 00:20:43,630 顶背离了啊 515 00:20:43,630 --> 00:20:45,630 你今天今天这个这个顶背离了 516 00:20:45,630 --> 00:20:46,479 已经啊 517 00:20:46,479 --> 00:20:48,199 今天收盘价近期高点 518 00:20:48,199 --> 00:20:50,519 然后呢ISI今天没有近期高点啊 519 00:20:50,519 --> 00:20:52,479 是一个比较明显的顶背离的一个状况啊 520 00:20:52,479 --> 00:20:55,400 所以这种顶背离呢存在一些修复的概率 521 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,039 往上再拉一波对吧 522 00:20:57,039 --> 00:20:59,549 向上修复继续呃 523 00:20:59,549 --> 00:21:00,509 超买修复 524 00:21:00,509 --> 00:21:02,509 比如说拉到八十五八十八 525 00:21:02,509 --> 00:21:04,069 然后呢再创一个高点 526 00:21:04,069 --> 00:21:05,519 打到430上方收盘 527 00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:08,559 但是他就出现了日线的顶背离哦 528 00:21:08,559 --> 00:21:10,539 不低日线的这个顶背离修复 529 00:21:10,539 --> 00:21:11,720 但是加上超买 530 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,670 那这种情况一波回撤回踩一下 531 00:21:14,670 --> 00:21:16,289 在你这里会出现一条腿 532 00:21:16,289 --> 00:21:17,029 后面是吧 533 00:21:17,029 --> 00:21:18,599 从397~430 534 00:21:18,599 --> 00:21:20,759 回踩到大概四百一四百二都有可能 535 00:21:20,759 --> 00:21:22,460 然后那个时候再蓄力向上 536 00:21:22,460 --> 00:21:24,180 所以我可能会找那个买点去啊 537 00:21:24,180 --> 00:21:26,720 并不是马上就直接一突破430 538 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,240 咔咔咔就直接去买啊 539 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:28,920 跟大家讲清楚 540 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,269 这是一些细节和操作纪律问题啊 541 00:21:32,269 --> 00:21:35,369 这个可能大家额这个就只能说这么多吧 542 00:21:35,369 --> 00:21:37,529 你这个如果能理解就理解得了 543 00:21:37,529 --> 00:21:38,730 理解不了也没办法啊 544 00:21:38,730 --> 00:21:42,409 这个我们尽量的把一些细节知识偶尔讲一讲 545 00:21:42,769 --> 00:21:43,489 好额 546 00:21:43,489 --> 00:21:45,249 这个呢就是今天呃 547 00:21:45,249 --> 00:21:48,048 大家呢这个估计觉得市场也挺无聊的对吧 548 00:21:48,048 --> 00:21:50,500 盘后反倒是比较激烈的 549 00:21:50,500 --> 00:21:51,900 那看看明天吧对吧 550 00:21:51,900 --> 00:21:53,059 反正现在也延长了 551 00:21:53,059 --> 00:21:54,759 那后面怎么整呢对吧 552 00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:59,420 现在反正又要回到这个互相吐口水了的阶段了 553 00:21:59,420 --> 00:21:59,740 是吧 554 00:21:59,740 --> 00:22:01,200 今天拿出纸巾擦了擦 555 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:01,779 擦干净 556 00:22:01,779 --> 00:22:02,949 明天接着吐呗 557 00:22:02,949 --> 00:22:04,368 大概就这么个状况啊 558 00:22:04,368 --> 00:22:06,490 但是呢总的来讲 559 00:22:06,490 --> 00:22:09,490 那谈判是大概率的一个出路啊 560 00:22:09,490 --> 00:22:10,369 不谈都不行啊 561 00:22:10,369 --> 00:22:11,650 双方都扛不住啊 562 00:22:11,650 --> 00:22:13,029 时间久了都不行 563 00:22:13,029 --> 00:22:13,950 好额 564 00:22:13,950 --> 00:22:15,710 这个就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊 565 00:22:15,710 --> 00:22:17,470 如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助 566 00:22:17,470 --> 00:22:20,130 还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞啊 567 00:22:20,130 --> 00:22:21,589 点赞谢谢大家点赞 568 00:22:21,589 --> 00:22:23,170 评论转发好 569 00:22:23,170 --> 00:22:24,450 那我们今天到这儿啊 570 00:22:24,450 --> 00:22:27,059 明天同一时间不见不散
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