赢太多了，承受不住了！NaNa说美股(2026.04.21)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月21号周二

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美伊停火进入倒计时

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双方把极限拉扯演绎成了大型打脸现场

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早上川普化身预言帝

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拍着胸脯

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保证梅姨能在周三到期前达成一项伟大的协议

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顺便还晃了晃手里的大棒

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称

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谈不成的话就揍丫的这个市场啊

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这辈子没见过什么世面哈

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听到伟大的协议

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这五个字就集体颅内高潮

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在那股子兴奋高开

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然而伊朗的剧本完全相反

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官方媒体称

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由于美国态度反复无常

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对于是否参加谈判尚未作出最终决定

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也没有派出任何外交代表团前往伊斯兰堡

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而且在伊朗获得彻底解除海上封锁的

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必要保证之前

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将继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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伊朗呢还为战事可能重新爆发

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做好了充分的准备

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那美国这边就尴尬了

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副总统万斯拎着行李在登机口走

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也不是留

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也不是

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最后只能说唉呀

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暂时搁置行程

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等待伊朗那边的回应

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盘中股指就在这种他来他不来

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他到底来不来的碎碎念中反复的横跳

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甚至在收盘前半小时哈

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市场还心存幻想

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觉得伊朗最终会真相

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结果呢伊朗宣布做出最终决定

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不出席

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周三在巴基斯坦举行的会谈

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股指应声跳水

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三大股指都集体收跌

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现在川普面临一个很现实的课题

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要么放低身段去哄伊朗回来继续谈

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要么互掐脖子

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死磕

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美军封锁伊朗港口

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伊朗呢封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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但是问题在于

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如果不打地面战的话

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伊朗根本不会全面妥协的

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可要是真打地面战

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那中期选举就得凉

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于是早晨还放狠话的川普下午又DAO了

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他宣称呃

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应巴基斯坦好哥们的请求

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决定暂缓动武

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停火将持续到伊朗

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考虑好了

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提交方案

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并且完成谈判为止

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什么时候美国这个流氓要不要打仗

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还得听巴基斯坦的意见了

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这分明就是极限施压

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踢到了铁板哈

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只能借坡下驴给自己找补个面子

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所以呢原有这一边就像只无头苍鹰

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在消息面里横冲直撞

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直上直下的都不知道该怎么走了

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美股这一边

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纳指回踩5日均线

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地缘政治不过是噪音

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大盘就是随便找个借口回调了

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毕竟连续13天的妖股市上涨哈

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早就让大盘超买了

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现在借个由头下个台阶走势呢才会更健康

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市场对于中东局势也已经有些脱敏了

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和平蓄势现在虽然动摇

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但只要不真刀真枪的干地面

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这样大盘的回调幅度呢就非常有限

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前面踏空的那些散户们现在心理素质极强

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对于即将到来的巨头财报也非常乐观

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昨天周一的散户买入规模创下4月以来新高

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所以这大盘稍微下跌一些哈

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那散户们就冲进来抄底

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比起former中的美股

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韩国散户才是提前进入了忘我的境界啊

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已经完全不care能源冲击了哈

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靠着半导体出口激增

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韩国综合指数cosplay

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已经收复了中东冲突以来全部失地

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哪怕3月韩国股市曾是全球最惨的股市

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现在也靠着对芯片制造商的信仰强行创新高

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在参议院确认听证会上讲话

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系统阐述了他的货币政策理念与改革蓝图

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他指出低通胀是美联储抵御政治攻击的防护盾

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一旦通胀失控

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其独立性的正当性了就会受到质疑

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他将近年来的高通胀归咎于美联储

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在2021和2022年放的政策失误呃

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并且呢承诺将会推动一场深刻的制度性改变革

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包括逐步谨慎的缩减资产负债表

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也就是qt嗯认为这有助于降低通胀

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并且为更低的利率水平创造条件

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也就是一边qt1边降息

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波神呢还立flag说自己绝不做总统的提线木

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但是对具体的利率路径含糊其辞

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这这也正常

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他毕竟是靠川普提名的嘛

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总不能说嗯不降息是吧

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或者现在要说要大降特降

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那就呃会引发市场对它独立性的质疑

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这只能够含糊其辞

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打太极

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参议院呢尚未决定何时表决卧室的提名资格

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美联储将会于下下周4月28 29号

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举行下一轮FMC货币政策会议

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数据面上

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今天公布的美国3月零售销售数据

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录得近一年来最大单月涨幅

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再次验证了美国经济的韧性

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这也是美股市场回调会有限的

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基本面支撑因素之一

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投资者对股市的总体前景仍持乐观的态度

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只要AI的景气度和一季度财报的炒作热情还在

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那这出戏就还没有唱完

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至于伊朗最后怂不怂

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或川普最后怂不怂

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那本周末之前见分晓

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其他个股方面

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联合健康今天的表现亮眼

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股价跳空高开

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领涨标普500指数

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成分股公司Q1业绩全面超出华尔街预期

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Q1营收一千一百十七亿美元

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同比增长2%

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调整后每股收益7.23美元

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也高于预期的6.57美元

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同时公司还三调了全年指引

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预计全年调整后

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每股收益将会高于18.25美元

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超过预期的17.86美元

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释放出较强的盈利信心

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公司还计划在第二季度末之前

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至少回购20亿美元的普通股

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技术面上

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股价今年一举突破了1月27号跳空下跌

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留下来的缺口压力位

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这意味着在经历了去年业绩冲击之后

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市场对它的信任正在逐步修复

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受这个龙头带动

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整个医疗保险板块今天情绪明显回暖

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其中HAMA的股价呢也跟随着走强

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上涨约3.4%

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从基本面来看

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哈联合健康的业务结构更多

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远抗风险能力也更强

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而HAMA这一边的上涨呢

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更多是政策驱动的估值修复

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4月7号那一天

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CMS上调了2027年医保优势项目的支付费率

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从最初0.09%

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大幅提升到2.48%

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明显超出市场预期

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直接就改善了行业盈利前景

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市场呢因此提前交易这个利好

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公司将于4月29号盘前公布财报

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如果股价在财报前提前透支了上涨空间呢

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反而要警惕利好兑现的回落风险

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所以财报之前哈

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看自己个人的仓位来决定

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要不要适当锁定利润

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或者呢切换到基本面更扎实的联合健康

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亚马逊股价基金高开低走

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公司宣布由on topic深化战略绑定

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追加投资50亿美元

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根据后续进展

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最高再投入200亿美元

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作为交换的onto be可承诺未来10年以下嗯

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亚马逊采购超过1000亿美元的算力

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并且锁定大规模的training um芯片资源

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用于AI模型训练和推理

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这种你投我

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我用你的绑定

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目的还是锁定未来AI算你需求

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对亚马逊云业务是长期利好

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不过从股价走势来看

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经历了一轮快速反弹之后

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多头动能开始出现边际减弱的迹象哈

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ISI也已经进入超买区间了

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如果股价还能嗯站稳5日均线呢

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还可以继续持有

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但是一旦跌破了

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为了预防风险

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可以考虑先减一半的仓位哈

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防止回撤

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沃尔玛股价这段时间走势明显的偏弱

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属于典型的被市场遗忘的防御股

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在3月份市场大跌的时候

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资金大量涌入这一类稳健标的避险

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而随着现在风险偏好回升了

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资金的快速流向科技股那边去炒作

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导致沃尔玛的表现不温不火

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根据花企测算

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在美国启动关税退还之后

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沃尔玛预计将会获得约102亿美元的退款

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是最大的受益者之一

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高于target2200000000美元和耐克的10亿美元

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这些退款

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短期内可能不会直接体现在企业的业绩指引中

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但是未来几个季度呢

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将会显著改善公司的现金流和资产负债表

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对估值形成支撑

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苹果股价则小幅回落

215
00:08:54,159 --> 00:08:57,159
市场在消化公司CEO换人的消喜

216
00:08:57,159 --> 00:09:02,309
现任CEO库克将会在今年9月份转任执行董事长

217
00:09:02,309 --> 00:09:06,549
由硬件工程负责人特纳斯来接任

218
00:09:06,549 --> 00:09:08,590
这个是自2011年以来

219
00:09:08,590 --> 00:09:10,299
苹果首次换帅

220
00:09:10,299 --> 00:09:11,980
嗯库克执掌期间

221
00:09:11,980 --> 00:09:14,480
苹果的市值增长了约24倍

222
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:15,980
达到了4万亿美元

223
00:09:15,980 --> 00:09:18,529
这次交接早已经被市场预期

224
00:09:18,529 --> 00:09:21,909
所以呢并没有引发明显的特别大的波动

225
00:09:24,089 --> 00:09:25,208
相比之下哈

226
00:09:25,208 --> 00:09:28,840
军工板块的走势就显得有些反直觉了

227
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,279
雷神和NORTHWEGMAN的财报都不差哈

228
00:09:32,279 --> 00:09:34,720
甚至可以说相当的强劲呃

229
00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,519
雷神Q1收入与利润双双超出市场预期

230
00:09:38,519 --> 00:09:41,039
而且还上调了全年指引

231
00:09:41,039 --> 00:09:45,440
NO Sol woman的利润更是同比大增82%

232
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,529
五角大楼为了重建呃

233
00:09:47,529 --> 00:09:50,330
因为与伊朗和其他冲突有关的行动而

234
00:09:50,330 --> 00:09:52,909
紧张的武器库存所做的努力呢

235
00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:55,659
推动了对武器的强劲需求

236
00:09:55,659 --> 00:09:59,720
让norse woman这些国防承包商受益匪浅

237
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:04,139
但是这两家公司的股价却全都在财报之后走弱

238
00:10:04,139 --> 00:10:07,100
尤其是那时候股们大跌近7%啊

239
00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:09,090
今天与黄金一样

240
00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:10,570
国防军工股呢

241
00:10:10,570 --> 00:10:13,830
通常也被认为是地缘政治冲突的受益者

242
00:10:13,830 --> 00:10:17,549
但是自3月初一旦冲突爆发以来哈

243
00:10:17,549 --> 00:10:19,500
这两类动量交易

244
00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:23,440
黄金与这个国防股呢都没能够奏效

245
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,220
军工股不仅没有上涨

246
00:10:25,220 --> 00:10:27,129
反而还持续下跌

247
00:10:27,129 --> 00:10:30,350
noral woman累计跌幅接近20%

248
00:10:30,350 --> 00:10:34,789
这背后是典型的利好兑现与资金拥挤逻辑

249
00:10:34,789 --> 00:10:39,210
就去年资金呢已经大规模的提前布局了

250
00:10:39,210 --> 00:10:40,250
军工板块

251
00:10:40,250 --> 00:10:41,980
估值被推高呃

252
00:10:41,980 --> 00:10:44,179
你看前面这涨的已经挺猛的哈

253
00:10:44,179 --> 00:10:46,100
所以当真正冲突发生的时候

254
00:10:46,100 --> 00:10:48,279
反而成为兑现利润的窗口

255
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:51,320
此外军工企业订单周期长

256
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:52,019
兑现慢

257
00:10:52,019 --> 00:10:55,779
也限制了股价短期持续上行的空间

258
00:10:55,779 --> 00:11:00,460
所以这一段下跌反映的是短线资金获利了结

259
00:11:00,460 --> 00:11:01,740
与筹码清洗

260
00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:04,100
并非是单一利空事件

261
00:11:04,100 --> 00:11:06,129
也无关基本面的变化

262
00:11:06,129 --> 00:11:10,169
嗯G1航空航天呢同样面临类似的情况

263
00:11:10,169 --> 00:11:14,299
尽管伊朗暂时引发燃油成本飙升和供应链扰动

264
00:11:14,299 --> 00:11:17,940
但是公司凭借强劲的航空旅行需求

265
00:11:17,940 --> 00:11:21,029
一季度业绩也是大幅超出市场预期的

266
00:11:21,029 --> 00:11:23,190
营收同比增长29%

267
00:11:23,190 --> 00:11:24,809
盈利呢也明显的提升

268
00:11:24,809 --> 00:11:25,590
公司还预计

269
00:11:25,590 --> 00:11:29,719
全年利润有望达到预期区间的高端呃

270
00:11:29,719 --> 00:11:31,499
虽然警告称高油价

271
00:11:31,499 --> 00:11:34,259
燃料供应限制以及全球增长放缓

272
00:11:34,259 --> 00:11:35,929
可能带来短期冲击

273
00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:37,289
股价高开低走

274
00:11:37,289 --> 00:11:39,500
最终下跌5.56%

275
00:11:39,500 --> 00:11:40,820
阿拉斯加航空

276
00:11:40,820 --> 00:11:43,559
第一季度营收同比增长5.2%

277
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:44,820
基本符合预期

278
00:11:44,820 --> 00:11:47,309
但是亏损超过预期呃

279
00:11:47,309 --> 00:11:50,169
而且还撤销了全年盈利指引

280
00:11:50,169 --> 00:11:53,269
理由是与伊朗战争相关的喷气机

281
00:11:53,269 --> 00:11:55,039
燃油成本急剧上升

282
00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:56,779
导致利润率承压

283
00:11:56,779 --> 00:12:00,080
并使今年下半年的前景变得暗淡

284
00:12:03,129 --> 00:12:05,370
这个跌幅完全不夸张哈

285
00:12:05,370 --> 00:12:09,190
像有些股票一旦就撤回全年盈利预测的话

286
00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:11,149
一天跌15%

287
00:12:11,149 --> 00:12:12,970
20%都有的哈

288
00:12:12,970 --> 00:12:14,070
所以这点跌幅

289
00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:17,590
说明市场呢仍然相信美伊最终会达成协议

290
00:12:17,590 --> 00:12:19,820
油价压力是暂时的呃

291
00:12:19,820 --> 00:12:24,440
同时公司管理层还提到票价上涨和预订稳定

292
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,519
这也给了市场一定的信心

293
00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:27,740
汽车租赁公司

294
00:12:27,740 --> 00:12:31,480
安徽市股票在过去几周经历了猛烈的嘎空

295
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:36,240
由于一家美国对冲基金突然宣布大规模建仓

296
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:40,120
这支股票持股比例迅速飙升到22%

297
00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:44,639
再加上公司大股东本来就持有近半数的股份哈

298
00:12:44,639 --> 00:12:48,830
导致这个市场流通的那些筹码被极度压缩呃

299
00:12:48,830 --> 00:12:50,309
空头被迫回补

300
00:12:50,309 --> 00:12:51,580
找不到股票哈

301
00:12:51,580 --> 00:12:54,779
这种流动性的枯竭导致的逼空行情

302
00:12:54,779 --> 00:12:58,929
使美股市场中最具观赏性的博弈奇观啊

303
00:12:58,929 --> 00:13:03,889
这让我们联想到嗯前两年的那个game stop是吧

304
00:13:03,889 --> 00:13:06,370
尽管华尔街分析师们也承认

305
00:13:06,370 --> 00:13:09,649
美国机场混乱带来的长途自驾需求

306
00:13:09,649 --> 00:13:12,049
确实为这家公司的业绩提供了支撑

307
00:13:16,009 --> 00:13:17,129
有望实现盈利

308
00:13:17,129 --> 00:13:20,409
但是当前这个涨幅已经远超过它的业务

309
00:13:20,409 --> 00:13:21,549
基本面的承载力

310
00:13:21,549 --> 00:13:23,639
估值显著偏离了

311
00:13:23,639 --> 00:13:25,480
多空分歧极大哈

312
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:26,980
一旦逼空结束

313
00:13:26,980 --> 00:13:29,080
缺乏基本面支撑的部分呢

314
00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:30,990
很容易就快速回吐

315
00:13:30,990 --> 00:13:32,669
当然我这里完全不鼓吹

316
00:13:32,669 --> 00:13:34,309
不建议去做空哈

317
00:13:34,309 --> 00:13:35,870
因为刚才我们说过了嘛

318
00:13:35,870 --> 00:13:38,450
大部分的筹码都是掌握在呃

319
00:13:38,450 --> 00:13:42,220
大股东与那个主力机构手里面

320
00:13:42,220 --> 00:13:43,460
只要他们不放

321
00:13:43,460 --> 00:13:45,460
那个做空是有成本的呀

322
00:13:45,460 --> 00:13:46,740
股价就很难下来

323
00:13:46,740 --> 00:13:48,559
除非他们开始出货

324
00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:49,580
整体来看呢

325
00:13:49,580 --> 00:13:53,370
今天个股层面的分化其实就非常的清晰啊

326
00:13:53,370 --> 00:13:57,980
那些有业绩有逻辑支撑的龙头在修复信心

327
00:13:57,980 --> 00:14:01,740
而那些纯粹靠情绪和资金推动的标的呢

328
00:14:01,740 --> 00:14:04,700
呃开始出现一些明显的波动甚至反转

329
00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:08,309
但这也再次印证当前市场核心特征

330
00:14:08,309 --> 00:14:10,230
就指数看似平稳

331
00:14:10,230 --> 00:14:13,269
但是内部结构呢已经在悄悄的发生变化

332
00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:15,659
其实就是做一个健康的回调啦

333
00:14:15,659 --> 00:14:17,500
还是嗯有必要的

334
00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:19,779
但是你要是指望大崩盘

335
00:14:19,779 --> 00:14:21,169
那不太可能了哈

336
00:14:21,169 --> 00:14:23,490
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

337
00:14:23,490 --> 00:14:25,100
那我们明天见拜拜

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