【视野环球财经】20260421美股 停火又又又延期……！JPM上调大盘至7600！IGV试探，更新！ISRG暂无加仓计划！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年4月21号

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周二晚上的8.35分

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呃

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不好意思啊

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今天这个节目上传又搞晚了点啊

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看热闹去了呃

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今天这个盘中呢是随着美伊停火协议

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即将于明天到期

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呃

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再加上呢

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昨天啊

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美国总统川普说

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再次延长停火协议的概率极低啊

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所以呢今天的市场呢是小幅承压

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不过啊咱们看到啊

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今天的指数期货啊

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是完全在盘后走了一个V型反转

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因为美国总统川普是单方面宣布

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延长了停火协议啊

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又又又又又又延期了呃

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那么但是呢会继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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直到谈判结束

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所以呢今天咱们看到啊

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股市盘后呢是大幅反弹

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指数期货由跌转涨

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V型反转

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那么这种消息面反复反转的市场啊

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很多朋友特别是在做着末日期权的朋友呢

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其实真的啊很难做

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呃

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你呢除了双手一摊

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没什么别的办法

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毕竟呢你的速度是永远快不过消息面的啊

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所以这种市场的短线还比较的难做

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今天的节目呢咱们稍微的简短一点啊

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然后呢只说几个关键信息

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首先我们看一个数据

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然后看一看呃

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阐述了一系列的政策框架到底有什么不同

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然后呢还给大家来聊一聊最近短期的这个市场

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它到底是呃什么样的一个情绪啊

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是上涨概率大一点呢

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还是风险更高一点啊

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会给出一些理由

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另外呢还有今天的SRG

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这边呢我是额财报数据没有更新完啊

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但是呢把技术面给大家呃做一下这个展示

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给大家看一下现在什么状况啊

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后面等完事了之后再给大家做一个补充好额

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那咱们呢就先说一下今天的数据呃

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今天咱们只看一个数据啊

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啊这个数据呢是3月的零售

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3月的零售销售环比是增长1.7%

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高于之前预测的百分之呃

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这个1.4也高于前值的0.6呃

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这其中呢主要是汽油销售

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大幅增长了15.5%啊

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这个是远高于之前预测的1.3%呃

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主要原因大家也都知道了

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就是美伊冲突后全球油价的上涨

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那么剔除汽油和汽车销售后呢

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零售增长是增长了0.6%啊

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小幅高于之前预期的0.4%

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好这个是零售的数据

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接下来我们就来看一下大盘

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首先说一下关于摩根大通的最新的预测啊

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今天的是摩根大通额这个交易策略

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那边呢是发布了一个更宏观的看涨报告

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其中最重要的是对大盘的点位

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就是在2026年年中年底的时候

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他的点位呢

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从之前的7200点上调至7600点

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那么上调的原因主要是

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人们对人工智能的热情再次高涨

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这个有助于推动美国股市

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今年达到高于预期的水平

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哎这个话说的比较含蓄

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我给大家补充一下

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就是散户会追涨

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市场会追涨啊

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那么整体的情绪推高溢价

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这是他上调的理由

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那么其中当然有一种最为积极的状况

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就是盈利状况也大好

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然后美伊这边尽快结束冲突

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开放海峡最乐观的情况甚至能高看至8000点啊

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年底啊

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当然那个是属于更加的额溢价的一种情况

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那个要达到按照他们的标准呃

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标普的前瞻EPS

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前瞻的PE要达到23倍啊

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那这个就超出历史的较高值的22倍

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基本上是来到了99%的这个

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高位水平了啊

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那个是一种比较呃最乐观的情况

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但他们的一个基准预测是7600啊

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从7200预测到上调到7600

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原因是大家对于人工智能乐观给出一定的溢价

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好

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这个呢是对于呃

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摩根大通上调目前的这个点位的状况呃

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那么我呢对于这个点位啊

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我还需要等到整个的二季度啊

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一季度的这个财报结束之后

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我才能给大家一个更新

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那么在上一次的更新之后

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最新的状况里边

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我的上方的这个预测这个测算范围啊

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基于22倍的测算范围

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大概在7400点左右啊

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7400左右

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下方大概在六千一百五十六千二左右啊

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这是上一次在四季度之后的一个更新结果

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那么在一季度之后呢

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会给大家继续来进行一个更新啊

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看看最终这个标普合理的

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18~22倍的交易区间

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应该在哪些范围之内

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好这个是长线的事情

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我们需要等财报等基本面

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那我想现在呢给大家谈一点短期的看法啊

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就是大盘短期到底会走成什么样子

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额这样吧

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我先这样吧

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我把大盘的短期的看法再往后放一下啊

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还是把那个美联储的这个落实的

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再跟大家先抢一下吧

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不然等会我怕忘记了好

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首先给大家看一下卧室的整体的

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今天听证会的他阐述的一些内容

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那么额沃什呢

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今天是阐述了一系列的政策框架

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他着重强调了美联储独立性的重要性

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并多次表示他不会让总统左右他的利率决策呃

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他还否认说

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川普曾要求他预先承诺在任何一次会议上降息

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并表示他绝对不会这样做

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那么卧室还表示呢会专注通胀恢复到目标水平

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但他表示美联储需要一个新的通胀的框架

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诶这个地方那就有文章可做了啊

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新的通胀的框架

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可能算法

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或者说对于数据的采纳就有一些不一样啊

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这个我们看看后面会怎么变化啊

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因为通胀框架发生变化

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比方说如果允许打个比方

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他说5年之后我们回到2%

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但我允许3年之内能够是33.5%维持

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那这个那就是一个新的变化啊

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但我这里是一个推测啊

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并不知道他要怎么变

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但他既然这么说了

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肯定有他的想法好

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还有就是在货币政策方面

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他表示利率工具更加公平

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同时强调资产负债表应该缩小

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并且不应该持有长期债券诶

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那这个东西呢就又是一个新的变化了啊

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对于美联储这边的状况

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如果不持有长期债券

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那当那当未来如果要扩表的时候怎么办啊

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缩表的时候可以理解

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很容易理解

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那如果扩表的时候怎么个扩呢

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这个钱怎么个印法呢

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哎这也是一个新东西啊

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我们现在不清楚它的真实想法

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还有呢就是过时

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表示他不相信前瞻性的指引

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而且呢他对经济潜力持乐观态度

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尤其是在人工智能的背景下

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还有就是第四个关于透明度啊

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卧室表示目前不存在缺乏透明度的问题

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并认为每年召开四次以上的

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联邦公开市场委员会的会议是合适的

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那就相当于维持现有的这个开会的节奏不变啊

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基本上季度都有

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然后呢季度中间的一些特定月份再补充一些啊

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这个是合适的啊

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这个就没有什么太大的影响

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所以总体看起来呢他会有一些新的改变啊

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真正的等他上来之后我们再看吧

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不过现在呢他的这个听证会

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暂时还是受到了

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这个参议员蒂利斯的这个阻挠啊

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因为迪利斯这边是拒绝去提名

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因为他的说法依旧是延续之前的那个理由呃

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如果鲍威尔的调查不结束

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他不会提名赢

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任何的新的美联储的这个候选人啊

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所以目前就卡在他这呃

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但那一头呢川普表示说呢

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那还要调查鲍威尔对吧

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还是需要去

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可能不会撤销

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那就现在看大家僵着呗

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没有新的提名人

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那么鲍威尔会继续的留任啊

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我们接下来看一下大盘啊

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刚才说着说着差点把这个说忘了

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好

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目前大盘的状况呢

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刚才讲过

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标普就是呃

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摩根大通的年底的点位

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是上调到了7600点啊

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这是一个中长期的位置啊

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那么我个人的测算是在7400点左右啊

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呃这是测算出来的啊

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然后呢我想说一下短期的状况

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短期的状况呢是呃我认为啊先说结论吧

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总的来看呢

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市场整体的短期暂时是偏乐观的啊

218
00:09:42,529 --> 00:09:44,370
就是情绪是偏乐观的

219
00:09:44,370 --> 00:09:47,450
属于这个呢可能要在高位横着啊

220
00:09:47,450 --> 00:09:49,929
或者呢看涨概率小幅

221
00:09:49,929 --> 00:09:52,289
看涨的概率更高的一个状态

222
00:09:52,289 --> 00:09:56,190
就是暂时出现大幅下跌的可能性

223
00:09:56,190 --> 00:09:58,389
相对会低一点点啊

224
00:09:58,389 --> 00:10:00,049
除非伊朗那边马上打仗对吧

225
00:10:00,049 --> 00:10:01,549
就那要直接轰炸了

226
00:10:01,549 --> 00:10:03,289
那就直接原地掉头向杀啊

227
00:10:03,289 --> 00:10:06,769
我们指的是在目前现有稳定的消息面

228
00:10:06,769 --> 00:10:07,850
的情况下啊

229
00:10:07,850 --> 00:10:10,330
中东那边维持现状的情况下

230
00:10:10,330 --> 00:10:15,009
那么高位横着甚至小幅上涨的状况概率更大啊

231
00:10:15,009 --> 00:10:17,850
为什么给大家讲三个理由

232
00:10:18,999 --> 00:10:22,678
第一个原因是今天啊

233
00:10:22,678 --> 00:10:24,458
我相信大家也看到一件事情

234
00:10:24,458 --> 00:10:28,259
就是呃在战争方面呢

235
00:10:28,259 --> 00:10:30,799
通过川普今天的表述啊

236
00:10:30,799 --> 00:10:32,840
咱们更加说明了一件事

237
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,568
就是美国和伊朗双方最终的出路

238
00:10:37,568 --> 00:10:41,009
大概率就是通过谈判来解决啊

239
00:10:41,009 --> 00:10:41,629
为什么呢

240
00:10:41,629 --> 00:10:44,038
因为美国通过武力解决

241
00:10:44,038 --> 00:10:46,759
他付出的政治代价太大了啊

242
00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:47,860
没有办法承受

243
00:10:47,860 --> 00:10:50,799
而伊朗方面呢长期封锁海峡

244
00:10:50,799 --> 00:10:52,940
承受着巨大的经济代价

245
00:10:52,940 --> 00:10:54,799
他也无法承受

246
00:10:54,799 --> 00:10:57,539
那么这个就意味着霍尔木兹海峡

247
00:10:57,539 --> 00:11:02,190
随时都会正真正的重新开放啊

248
00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:03,669
这是一个基准判断

249
00:11:03,669 --> 00:11:06,950
那么大家通过盘后的这个走势也能看出来

250
00:11:06,950 --> 00:11:09,809
只要是溢出利好对吧

251
00:11:09,809 --> 00:11:12,549
那基本上是原地起飞

252
00:11:12,549 --> 00:11:14,549
不仅把盘中的收复了

253
00:11:14,549 --> 00:11:17,230
还给你多长出0.6个点去

254
00:11:17,230 --> 00:11:19,750
你就知道市场是多么的渴望

255
00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,110
多么的希望能够稳定啊

256
00:11:22,110 --> 00:11:23,070
市场能够上涨

257
00:11:23,070 --> 00:11:25,450
都怕我买不着了啊

258
00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:26,350
都这么个概念啊

259
00:11:26,350 --> 00:11:27,870
所以从短期的情绪上

260
00:11:27,870 --> 00:11:31,100
大家还是觉得嗯应该是看涨概率更大啊

261
00:11:31,100 --> 00:11:34,078
这个资金上说是买多的是比较积极的

262
00:11:34,078 --> 00:11:37,849
还有一个呢我们可以看到从下行的表保护上啊

263
00:11:37,849 --> 00:11:40,528
呃从期权的保护上非常便宜非常便宜

264
00:11:40,528 --> 00:11:41,089
意味着什么

265
00:11:41,089 --> 00:11:43,028
意味着买的人不多嘛对吧

266
00:11:43,028 --> 00:11:44,960
所以呢这是第一个点啊

267
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:46,480
第一原因好

268
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,159
第二个原因

269
00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,200
第二个原因呢是短期的资金流啊

270
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,600
是利多的啊

271
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,350
就是实质性的资金流

272
00:11:56,350 --> 00:11:58,370
除了CCTA之外

273
00:11:58,370 --> 00:12:00,068
还有回购

274
00:12:00,068 --> 00:12:01,528
马上就开始了

275
00:12:01,528 --> 00:12:04,249
他会帮忙拖住市场的下跌

276
00:12:04,249 --> 00:12:07,548
给大家看一下回购的这个数据

277
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:09,399
呃

278
00:12:09,399 --> 00:12:11,389
这个呢是高盛提供的数据

279
00:12:11,389 --> 00:12:12,669
未来几周啊

280
00:12:12,669 --> 00:12:14,830
回购计划重启呢

281
00:12:14,830 --> 00:12:19,039
是为市场带来了一定的下跌的这个阻力

282
00:12:19,039 --> 00:12:20,940
那么高盛预计呢

283
00:12:20,940 --> 00:12:22,379
截止到今天

284
00:12:22,379 --> 00:12:27,419
约有18%的股票处于这个开放交易窗口

285
00:12:27,419 --> 00:12:28,940
就是可回购的状态

286
00:12:28,940 --> 00:12:32,028
那么到这个周末就是周五结束之后啊

287
00:12:32,028 --> 00:12:33,188
从下个星期开始

288
00:12:33,188 --> 00:12:37,629
预计开放交易的窗口比例达到29%啊

289
00:12:37,629 --> 00:12:39,580
29%的公司就可以回购

290
00:12:39,580 --> 00:12:41,220
那么今年迄今为止

291
00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:45,879
股票回购授权的额度已经达到了创纪录的

292
00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:48,000
4220亿美元

293
00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,759
那么这个授权额度呢和20年同期相比

294
00:12:51,759 --> 00:12:54,860
增长了176%呃

295
00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:58,179
如果按照90%的历史执行率去计算啊

296
00:12:58,179 --> 00:13:00,019
就是他这个回购授权有这么多

297
00:13:00,019 --> 00:13:01,340
但不是一定都买完

298
00:13:01,340 --> 00:13:03,289
按照90%的计算

299
00:13:03,289 --> 00:13:06,529
那么美国企业今年有望回购

300
00:13:06,529 --> 00:13:09,730
约1万亿美元的股票

301
00:13:09,730 --> 00:13:12,509
创下历史新高啊

302
00:13:12,509 --> 00:13:15,289
这个是一个非常不错的一个状态哈

303
00:13:15,289 --> 00:13:16,509
这个呢400啊

304
00:13:16,509 --> 00:13:20,139
4200多亿是截止到现在的这个额

305
00:13:20,139 --> 00:13:21,200
这个4月份啊

306
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,440
因为后面还有八个月呢

307
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:23,799
他们会逐渐的会增加啊

308
00:13:23,799 --> 00:13:25,519
根据历史的这个滚动值来看

309
00:13:25,519 --> 00:13:28,950
所以呢他说总额能达到差不多1万亿好

310
00:13:28,950 --> 00:13:30,389
所以这是第二个啊

311
00:13:30,389 --> 00:13:34,429
有一些资金呢它会拖住下跌

312
00:13:35,070 --> 00:13:37,289
那么第三个原因是什么呢

313
00:13:37,289 --> 00:13:40,429
就是空头回补还在继续啊

314
00:13:40,429 --> 00:13:43,855
咱们来看一下其中一个最重要的IGV

315
00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:48,240
呃IGV呢昨天我给大家已经讲过对吧

316
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,259
我们讲过他的一个位置啊

317
00:13:50,259 --> 00:13:52,840
这个位置当时给的是88块六

318
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,059
今天大家看到有所上调啊

319
00:13:55,059 --> 00:13:55,779
为什么上调

320
00:13:55,779 --> 00:13:59,330
因为今天盘中的时候打过88块八

321
00:13:59,330 --> 00:14:02,070
出现了非常大的成交量

322
00:14:02,070 --> 00:14:05,169
所以这个地方依旧有被套住的筹码啊

323
00:14:05,169 --> 00:14:09,340
所以今天我把这个位置上调到了88.9啊

324
00:14:09,340 --> 00:14:10,740
因为今天是一个特殊状况啊

325
00:14:10,740 --> 00:14:12,899
正常来讲成交量不大的情况下

326
00:14:12,899 --> 00:14:14,179
不太会去进行上调

327
00:14:14,179 --> 00:14:16,919
那么今天他这个位置呢是值得去上调的啊

328
00:14:16,919 --> 00:14:19,799
因为它涉及到呃这个回呃

329
00:14:19,799 --> 00:14:23,350
这个叫做额这个回补的持续程度的问题啊

330
00:14:23,350 --> 00:14:25,210
今天最低你看88块一

331
00:14:25,210 --> 00:14:28,190
打上去以后到88块六这个位置

332
00:14:28,190 --> 00:14:29,250
大家看啊

333
00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:31,129
然后形成了两个高峰

334
00:14:31,129 --> 00:14:33,568
然后往上达到了88块八

335
00:14:33,568 --> 00:14:34,928
这个位置仍然是有效

336
00:14:34,928 --> 00:14:36,109
但是呢保险起见

337
00:14:36,109 --> 00:14:38,808
最好以今天的高点88块八往上啊

338
00:14:38,808 --> 00:14:40,429
所以放到88块九

339
00:14:40,429 --> 00:14:42,818
以开盘价或者收盘价为准

340
00:14:42,818 --> 00:14:46,739
它就会推动更进一步的回补的发声啊

341
00:14:46,739 --> 00:14:49,658
同时呢也对整个IGV的上行趋势

342
00:14:49,658 --> 00:14:51,440
奠定了一个比较好的一个基础

343
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,720
好这个都是短期的资金流向啊

344
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,820
所以希望大家也多多的

345
00:14:56,820 --> 00:14:59,029
暂时呢我们说市场的这个很多

346
00:14:59,029 --> 00:15:01,330
看多的一些资金的推动

347
00:15:01,330 --> 00:15:02,570
IGV是一方面

348
00:15:02,570 --> 00:15:04,809
还有罗素其实也有啊

349
00:15:04,809 --> 00:15:06,409
罗素我们之前给大家看过

350
00:15:06,409 --> 00:15:09,049
他的这个空头比例非常的高的啊

351
00:15:09,049 --> 00:15:09,529
非常的高

352
00:15:09,529 --> 00:15:11,279
他最近也是在空头回补

353
00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,120
所以走的非常的快啊

354
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,000
走的非常快

355
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:14,960
跌的也多对吧

356
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,659
但是呢回去的也快啊

357
00:15:16,659 --> 00:15:20,049
所以他这个也是属于呃在回补

358
00:15:20,049 --> 00:15:22,049
这个被噶空的一个状态

359
00:15:22,049 --> 00:15:26,899
那么这种东西呢都是可以是短线上帮助市场呃

360
00:15:26,899 --> 00:15:29,539
这个多头去占领一些优势的

361
00:15:29,539 --> 00:15:32,340
好这个呢就是谈到三个理由

362
00:15:32,340 --> 00:15:35,100
为什么短期的状况会多一点啊

363
00:15:35,100 --> 00:15:36,370
就偏多一点

364
00:15:36,370 --> 00:15:39,129
那么中长期状况仍旧要看基本面的状况

365
00:15:39,129 --> 00:15:40,110
就是财报

366
00:15:40,110 --> 00:15:40,809
公司财报

367
00:15:40,809 --> 00:15:43,710
因为下个星期未来两个星期都会有重呃

368
00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:45,730
大量的大科技的财报啊

369
00:15:45,730 --> 00:15:48,860
特别是和AI相关的一些信息会出来

370
00:15:48,860 --> 00:15:52,379
这个星期大的财报呢就是明天的像特斯拉对吧

371
00:15:52,379 --> 00:15:55,379
但特斯拉的业绩本身呃比较一般嘛

372
00:15:55,379 --> 00:15:57,190
预期就那回事儿对吧

373
00:15:57,190 --> 00:15:59,389
无非就是看特斯拉在财报之后

374
00:15:59,389 --> 00:16:02,379
市场的这个压住他400块钱上下

375
00:16:02,379 --> 00:16:03,019
26块钱

376
00:16:03,019 --> 00:16:04,039
他能跑到哪里

377
00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:06,820
是能跑到区间之内还是跑到区间之外的问题啊

378
00:16:06,820 --> 00:16:09,559
就是大概率范围和小概率范围的问题

379
00:16:09,559 --> 00:16:12,159
他如果真的一口气跑到了465上方

380
00:16:12,159 --> 00:16:15,690
那就那那也就出现了极小概率啊那种情况

381
00:16:15,690 --> 00:16:17,809
那就后面就跑得非常飞快了

382
00:16:17,809 --> 00:16:20,070
但通过期权来看呢

383
00:16:20,070 --> 00:16:21,649
概率相对较低一点啊

384
00:16:22,730 --> 00:16:25,860
好呃那么这个呢是几个呃

385
00:16:25,860 --> 00:16:27,580
呃目前短期的一个状况啊

386
00:16:27,580 --> 00:16:30,519
后面长期的东西我们会跟着财报的逐渐披露

387
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:32,568
和大家再慢慢更新

388
00:16:32,889 --> 00:16:37,528
呃另外呢今天和大家简单的说一下SRG啊

389
00:16:38,940 --> 00:16:42,340
SG的财报呢我是没有更新啊

390
00:16:42,340 --> 00:16:43,100
还没有更新的

391
00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:44,940
这是上次的那个数据啊

392
00:16:44,940 --> 00:16:46,019
大家可以做一个参考啊

393
00:16:46,019 --> 00:16:49,840
回头我更新完了之后再给大家展示呃

394
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,340
其实通过之前的情况来看呢

395
00:16:52,340 --> 00:16:54,610
今天你看呃财报呃

396
00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:56,570
发布其实还比较稳定对吧

397
00:16:56,570 --> 00:16:58,549
也没有什么太大的波澜

398
00:16:58,549 --> 00:17:02,219
他的情况呢是仍旧是偏高啊

399
00:17:02,219 --> 00:17:04,259
因为它的倍数一直偏高啊

400
00:17:04,259 --> 00:17:06,659
它也是一只市场比较抢手的股票

401
00:17:06,659 --> 00:17:08,479
所以呢倍数一直很高

402
00:17:08,479 --> 00:17:11,720
就导致呢看上去价格好像还挺合理呀

403
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,859
但是你要是排除高倍数之外呢

404
00:17:13,859 --> 00:17:14,720
它的增长

405
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,710
然后继续下滑到个位数呢

406
00:17:16,710 --> 00:17:19,109
那他就拿不到这么高的前瞻PE了嘛

407
00:17:19,109 --> 00:17:23,980
那他的下面的这个底线他肯定就要往下掉啊

408
00:17:23,980 --> 00:17:25,339
所以呢我之前啊

409
00:17:25,339 --> 00:17:28,019
上一次在更早的两个季度前的财报

410
00:17:28,019 --> 00:17:29,579
这一波拉升的时候对吧

411
00:17:29,579 --> 00:17:31,960
当时呢我就直接取消了加仓计划

412
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,269
为什么当时是在405以下对吧

413
00:17:35,269 --> 00:17:37,170
405以下掉到427

414
00:17:37,170 --> 00:17:38,369
出了一个财报

415
00:17:38,369 --> 00:17:39,910
不是也一般的财报

416
00:17:39,910 --> 00:17:42,440
结果直接一口气涨了13%

417
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,920
回去呢又在上方横盘横了两个季度

418
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,680
慢慢跌下来

419
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,779
你说这个走势讨厌不讨厌对吧

420
00:17:47,779 --> 00:17:48,839
那没意思对吧

421
00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:51,220
走的明明财报就很一般啊

422
00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:52,680
还在高位顶一波

423
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,420
然后出货

424
00:17:53,420 --> 00:17:54,519
出完之后掉下来

425
00:17:54,519 --> 00:17:56,259
那这种情况我就没追嘛

426
00:17:56,259 --> 00:17:59,788
所以我当时直接取消加仓计划诶

427
00:17:59,788 --> 00:18:01,709
那么现在呢今天呢大家会说

428
00:18:01,709 --> 00:18:03,489
那你这个还有没有加仓计划呢

429
00:18:03,489 --> 00:18:04,769
今天没有啊

430
00:18:04,769 --> 00:18:05,989
今天没有加仓计划

431
00:18:05,989 --> 00:18:08,410
提前告诉大家什么时候会更新呢

432
00:18:08,410 --> 00:18:10,990
如果它跌破了430之后

433
00:18:10,990 --> 00:18:13,430
有如果有机会跌破430

434
00:18:13,430 --> 00:18:14,589
我再给大家更新啊

435
00:18:14,589 --> 00:18:15,670
因为现在太早了

436
00:18:15,670 --> 00:18:16,910
现在更新太早了呢

437
00:18:16,910 --> 00:18:17,630
我一说呢

438
00:18:17,630 --> 00:18:21,898
然后到时候呃这个这个到时候大家对吧

439
00:18:21,898 --> 00:18:23,618
买的时候那也比较快对吧

440
00:18:23,618 --> 00:18:26,529
然后呢这个地方又又卡住了

441
00:18:26,529 --> 00:18:29,089
卡住以后又得要横盘横搞很久

442
00:18:29,089 --> 00:18:30,930
所以呢跌破430

443
00:18:30,930 --> 00:18:32,769
我认为才有一些趋势会形成啊

444
00:18:32,769 --> 00:18:33,670
没跌破之前

445
00:18:33,670 --> 00:18:35,410
他还有望在这个地方止跌

446
00:18:35,410 --> 00:18:36,809
然后呢做底

447
00:18:36,809 --> 00:18:38,230
然后反弹向上啊

448
00:18:38,230 --> 00:18:39,680
430之前

449
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,319
那我是不会买的好吧

450
00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:42,440
跟大家提前讲一声啊

451
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,940
要买的话也在430跌破之后给大家做个更新

452
00:18:45,940 --> 00:18:47,000
好额

453
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,660
这个呢就是ISRG呃

454
00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:52,380
另外还有就是微软

455
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,019
微软磨磨蹭蹭对吧

456
00:18:55,019 --> 00:18:58,640
他呢明显也在等IGV也是大权重啊

457
00:18:58,640 --> 00:18:59,960
所以你可以这么理解

458
00:18:59,960 --> 00:19:01,680
其实IGV如果突破了

459
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,490
可能也就意味着微软也突破了对吧

460
00:19:04,490 --> 00:19:06,730
微软突破了也就是进入右侧了

461
00:19:06,730 --> 00:19:09,750
他这个后面的就看不到太深的下跌了啊

462
00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:12,349
再看到375往下的概率就会变低

463
00:19:12,349 --> 00:19:15,150
因为他的前瞻再往下到26年6月

464
00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:16,230
其实已经低估了

465
00:19:16,230 --> 00:19:18,109
在375以下时间来不及了

466
00:19:18,109 --> 00:19:19,549
现在已经26年4月了

467
00:19:19,549 --> 00:19:20,549
明年要最低的话

468
00:19:20,549 --> 00:19:21,929
要去到434了

469
00:19:21,929 --> 00:19:23,009
所以还是那句话

470
00:19:23,009 --> 00:19:25,288
如果你是长线没有仓位的朋友啊

471
00:19:25,288 --> 00:19:27,440
微软这个价格性价比不错啊

472
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,440
之前375以下没买的

473
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:30,480
那是很更低的

474
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,240
性价比更好的

475
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:31,900
你没买

476
00:19:31,900 --> 00:19:35,230
现在这个价格也是性价比可以的啊

477
00:19:35,230 --> 00:19:37,069
如果还有机会往下过不去

478
00:19:37,069 --> 00:19:38,598
右侧过不了430

479
00:19:38,598 --> 00:19:39,778
又掉头向下了

480
00:19:39,778 --> 00:19:42,318
那下方这些地方仍旧是长线买点啊

481
00:19:42,318 --> 00:19:44,519
我是因为有10%的仓位了

482
00:19:44,519 --> 00:19:47,519
我均价这个持仓成本在185.1

483
00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:48,839
所以我并不着急

484
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:50,519
一定要抢着去买啊

485
00:19:50,519 --> 00:19:51,839
我要去买一个趋势

486
00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:53,000
买一个确定性啊

487
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,400
这是我和大家不一样的地方啊

488
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:55,980
所以你没有仓位的朋友

489
00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:58,240
你的仓位这里分配好一点对吧

490
00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:59,619
375分配好了一点

491
00:19:59,619 --> 00:20:00,940
346分配好了一点

492
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:02,920
你这不就下方至少有有一个位置

493
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:04,029
你能吃着了吗

494
00:20:04,029 --> 00:20:06,569
你们的成本不就放得比较低了嘛是吧

495
00:20:06,569 --> 00:20:09,359
所以呃因为持仓的情况不一样啊

496
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:10,680
所以买的就不一样

497
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,660
位置上它的性价比是比较高的

498
00:20:12,660 --> 00:20:14,960
这个再往呃434以下嘛

499
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,670
放到过了26年6月往后

500
00:20:17,670 --> 00:20:19,890
那他这个性价比就还不错了啊

501
00:20:19,890 --> 00:20:22,089
好所以呢这个大家自己看啊

502
00:20:22,089 --> 00:20:23,920
我呢就是等430突破之后

503
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,279
确定进入右侧之后

504
00:20:25,279 --> 00:20:26,700
我再去找一个买点好吧

505
00:20:26,700 --> 00:20:28,119
不是说再次强调啊

506
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,200
不是一突破10.3马上就买啊

507
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:31,019
我看他的状况

508
00:20:31,019 --> 00:20:33,619
看他是个缩量还是一个放量呃

509
00:20:33,619 --> 00:20:36,119
然后呢因为我预计就算突破了430

510
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,799
他后面有可能还会有一个回撤啊

511
00:20:37,799 --> 00:20:38,440
有一个回踩

512
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,690
因为现在有个什么样的问题呢

513
00:20:40,690 --> 00:20:41,970
背离了啊

514
00:20:41,970 --> 00:20:43,630
顶背离了啊

515
00:20:43,630 --> 00:20:45,630
你今天今天这个这个顶背离了

516
00:20:45,630 --> 00:20:46,479
已经啊

517
00:20:46,479 --> 00:20:48,199
今天收盘价近期高点

518
00:20:48,199 --> 00:20:50,519
然后呢ISI今天没有近期高点啊

519
00:20:50,519 --> 00:20:52,479
是一个比较明显的顶背离的一个状况啊

520
00:20:52,479 --> 00:20:55,400
所以这种顶背离呢存在一些修复的概率

521
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,039
往上再拉一波对吧

522
00:20:57,039 --> 00:20:59,549
向上修复继续呃

523
00:20:59,549 --> 00:21:00,509
超买修复

524
00:21:00,509 --> 00:21:02,509
比如说拉到八十五八十八

525
00:21:02,509 --> 00:21:04,069
然后呢再创一个高点

526
00:21:04,069 --> 00:21:05,519
打到430上方收盘

527
00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:08,559
但是他就出现了日线的顶背离哦

528
00:21:08,559 --> 00:21:10,539
不低日线的这个顶背离修复

529
00:21:10,539 --> 00:21:11,720
但是加上超买

530
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,670
那这种情况一波回撤回踩一下

531
00:21:14,670 --> 00:21:16,289
在你这里会出现一条腿

532
00:21:16,289 --> 00:21:17,029
后面是吧

533
00:21:17,029 --> 00:21:18,579
从397~430

534
00:21:18,579 --> 00:21:20,759
回踩到大概四百一四百二都有可能

535
00:21:20,759 --> 00:21:22,460
然后那个时候再蓄力向上

536
00:21:22,460 --> 00:21:24,220
所以我可能会找那个买点去啊

537
00:21:24,220 --> 00:21:26,720
并不是马上就直接一突破430

538
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,240
咔咔咔就直接去买啊

539
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:28,920
跟大家讲清楚

540
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,269
这是一些细节和操作纪律问题啊

541
00:21:32,269 --> 00:21:35,369
这个可能大家额这个就只能说这么多吧

542
00:21:35,369 --> 00:21:37,529
你这个如果能理解就理解得了

543
00:21:37,529 --> 00:21:38,730
理解不了也没办法啊

544
00:21:38,730 --> 00:21:42,369
这个我们尽量的把一些细节知识偶尔讲一讲

545
00:21:42,769 --> 00:21:43,490
好额

546
00:21:43,490 --> 00:21:45,250
这个呢就是今天呃

547
00:21:45,250 --> 00:21:48,049
大家呢这个估计觉得市场也挺无聊的对吧

548
00:21:48,049 --> 00:21:50,500
盘后反倒是比较激烈的

549
00:21:50,500 --> 00:21:51,900
那看看明天吧对吧

550
00:21:51,900 --> 00:21:53,059
反正现在也延长了

551
00:21:53,059 --> 00:21:54,759
那后面怎么整呢对吧

552
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:59,420
现在反正又要回到这个互相吐口水了的阶段了

553
00:21:59,420 --> 00:21:59,740
是吧

554
00:21:59,740 --> 00:22:01,200
今天拿出纸巾擦了擦

555
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:01,779
擦干净

556
00:22:01,779 --> 00:22:02,949
明天接着吐呗

557
00:22:02,949 --> 00:22:04,368
大概就这么个状况啊

558
00:22:04,368 --> 00:22:06,490
但是呢总的来讲

559
00:22:06,490 --> 00:22:09,490
那谈判是大概率的一个出路啊

560
00:22:09,490 --> 00:22:10,369
不谈都不行啊

561
00:22:10,369 --> 00:22:11,650
双方都扛不住啊

562
00:22:11,650 --> 00:22:13,029
时间久了都不行

563
00:22:13,029 --> 00:22:15,710
好额这个就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

564
00:22:15,710 --> 00:22:17,470
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

565
00:22:17,470 --> 00:22:20,130
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞啊

566
00:22:20,130 --> 00:22:21,589
点赞谢谢大家点赞

567
00:22:21,589 --> 00:22:23,170
评论转发好

568
00:22:23,170 --> 00:22:24,450
那我们今天到这儿啊

569
00:22:24,450 --> 00:22:27,059
明天同一时间不见不散

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