260421-高盛-美国股票颜色：平静开局

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,540
大家好

2
00:00:00,540 --> 00:00:03,200
今天我们来看一份高盛的市场报告

3
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:04,639
标题挺有意思的

4
00:00:04,639 --> 00:00:07,059
叫美国股票颜色瓶颈

5
00:00:07,059 --> 00:00:09,208
开局平静

6
00:00:09,208 --> 00:00:11,308
开局听起来波澜不惊

7
00:00:11,308 --> 00:00:13,509
但咱们就是要深入挖一挖

8
00:00:13,509 --> 00:00:17,368
看看这所谓的瓶颈下面到底藏着些什么玄机

9
00:00:17,368 --> 00:00:17,908
好

10
00:00:17,908 --> 00:00:21,989
就是这份2026年4月21号的报告

11
00:00:21,989 --> 00:00:24,670
这可是来自高盛的一手解读

12
00:00:24,670 --> 00:00:26,690
所以信息含金量很高

13
00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:30,170
咱们这就开始看看他们是怎么分析的

14
00:00:30,170 --> 00:00:34,390
所以这就引出了我们今天要探讨的核心问题

15
00:00:34,390 --> 00:00:38,950
你看一个长达13天的连长势头突然就停了

16
00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:40,670
你觉得这会是巧合吗

17
00:00:40,670 --> 00:00:41,750
肯定不是

18
00:00:41,750 --> 00:00:43,609
这表面上风平浪静

19
00:00:43,609 --> 00:00:46,270
但底下绝对是暗流涌动

20
00:00:46,270 --> 00:00:47,549
我们今天的任务啊

21
00:00:47,549 --> 00:00:49,810
就是要掀开这层平静的伪装

22
00:00:49,810 --> 00:00:52,658
看看里面到底发生了什么行

23
00:00:52,658 --> 00:00:54,118
要搞清楚状况

24
00:00:54,118 --> 00:00:56,198
第一步咱们先看数据

25
00:00:56,198 --> 00:00:57,838
数字是最诚实的

26
00:00:57,838 --> 00:01:00,179
它能告诉我们最基本的情况

27
00:01:00,179 --> 00:01:02,909
你看这个-30一个基点

28
00:01:02,909 --> 00:01:05,870
这就是纳斯达克100指数的跌幅

29
00:01:05,870 --> 00:01:10,599
就是他终结了那个长达13天的连涨神话

30
00:01:10,599 --> 00:01:14,579
所以说这绝对是一个值得我们关注的信号

31
00:01:14,579 --> 00:01:15,719
不光是纳指

32
00:01:15,719 --> 00:01:17,599
你看标普500也一样

33
00:01:17,599 --> 00:01:19,370
跌了24个基点

34
00:01:19,370 --> 00:01:23,090
这就说明啊整个市场的基调确实是有点疲软了

35
00:01:23,090 --> 00:01:26,058
但是真正有意思的来了

36
00:01:26,058 --> 00:01:28,858
你看这个数字VIX指数

37
00:01:28,858 --> 00:01:31,840
就是咱们常说的那个恐慌指数

38
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,659
竟然暴涨了795个基点

39
00:01:34,659 --> 00:01:36,719
差不多就是八个百分点

40
00:01:36,719 --> 00:01:37,659
你想想啊

41
00:01:37,659 --> 00:01:39,049
大盘只是微跌

42
00:01:39,049 --> 00:01:40,890
恐慌指数却飙升

43
00:01:40,890 --> 00:01:42,049
这说明什么

44
00:01:42,049 --> 00:01:44,030
这不就是第一个线索吗

45
00:01:44,030 --> 00:01:44,769
告诉我们

46
00:01:44,769 --> 00:01:48,329
水面下的东西可比水面上要精彩得多

47
00:01:48,329 --> 00:01:50,390
我们再把视野拉宽一点

48
00:01:50,390 --> 00:01:51,909
看看整个大盘

49
00:01:51,909 --> 00:01:54,609
你会发现啊情况有点乱

50
00:01:54,609 --> 00:01:56,450
你看股市是微跌

51
00:01:56,450 --> 00:01:59,390
但另一边原油和比特币在涨

52
00:01:59,390 --> 00:02:01,579
黄金和美元呢又在跌

53
00:02:01,579 --> 00:02:04,060
这种东边日出西边雨的景象

54
00:02:04,060 --> 00:02:07,140
就更能说明市场现在是真的很纠结

55
00:02:07,140 --> 00:02:09,639
大家都不知道下一步该往哪儿走

56
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,079
还有一个非常关键的指标

57
00:02:12,079 --> 00:02:13,310
成交量

58
00:02:13,310 --> 00:02:16,710
今年总共才成交了165亿股

59
00:02:16,710 --> 00:02:20,189
比平时的平均水平少了快30亿股

60
00:02:20,189 --> 00:02:21,270
这说明什么

61
00:02:21,270 --> 00:02:23,990
说明大家都在捂紧口袋呀

62
00:02:23,990 --> 00:02:25,590
没人敢轻易下场

63
00:02:25,590 --> 00:02:27,180
都在旁边看着呢

64
00:02:27,180 --> 00:02:31,389
市场弥漫着一种非常谨慎的观望情绪

65
00:02:31,389 --> 00:02:34,330
好刚才我们看完了是什么

66
00:02:34,330 --> 00:02:36,680
现在该问为什么了

67
00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:38,099
这么好的涨势

68
00:02:38,099 --> 00:02:40,120
怎么就说停就停了呢

69
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,289
大家到底在担心什么

70
00:02:42,289 --> 00:02:45,229
高盛的报告里提到了两个主要原因

71
00:02:45,229 --> 00:02:48,969
首先地缘政治方面又出了一些不太好的消息

72
00:02:48,969 --> 00:02:50,829
这让大家有点紧张

73
00:02:50,829 --> 00:02:53,288
但更重要的是第二个原因

74
00:02:53,288 --> 00:02:56,568
一个超级繁忙的财报季就要来了

75
00:02:56,568 --> 00:02:58,319
这才是重头戏

76
00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:00,759
在各大公司交出成绩单之前

77
00:03:00,759 --> 00:03:02,649
谁也不敢轻举妄动

78
00:03:02,649 --> 00:03:04,528
你看这张图就明白了

79
00:03:04,528 --> 00:03:06,610
这个财报机的压力有多大

80
00:03:06,610 --> 00:03:07,889
就这个星期

81
00:03:07,889 --> 00:03:08,990
标普500里头

82
00:03:08,990 --> 00:03:11,879
就有差不多1/4的公司要发财报

83
00:03:11,879 --> 00:03:13,599
而且还都是通信服务

84
00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:16,539
能源工业这种重量级选手

85
00:03:16,539 --> 00:03:19,639
可以说整个华尔街现在都是屏住呼吸

86
00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,509
在等这些公司的答案

87
00:03:21,509 --> 00:03:24,030
那在这种看不清方向的时候

88
00:03:24,030 --> 00:03:26,969
市场里那些最精明的大玩家

89
00:03:26,969 --> 00:03:28,949
就是那些机构投资者

90
00:03:28,949 --> 00:03:30,569
他们是怎么操作的呢

91
00:03:30,569 --> 00:03:32,449
我们来看看他们的动作

92
00:03:32,449 --> 00:03:34,050
有意思的地方来了

93
00:03:34,050 --> 00:03:36,979
这些专业玩家居然出现了分歧

94
00:03:36,979 --> 00:03:39,580
你看一边是资产管理公司

95
00:03:39,580 --> 00:03:40,620
他们块头大

96
00:03:40,620 --> 00:03:41,500
动作也慢

97
00:03:41,500 --> 00:03:42,879
基本是按兵不动

98
00:03:42,879 --> 00:03:43,990
先看看再说

99
00:03:43,990 --> 00:03:47,669
但另一边那些嗅觉最灵敏的对冲基金

100
00:03:47,669 --> 00:03:48,909
他们可没闲着

101
00:03:48,909 --> 00:03:51,560
直接净卖出了50亿美元

102
00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,840
卖出的重点还就是宏观产品和科技股

103
00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:58,319
你看这聪明钱内部已经开始打架了

104
00:03:58,319 --> 00:04:02,060
好如果说股票市场是大家都能看到的

105
00:04:02,060 --> 00:04:03,439
明面上的战场

106
00:04:03,439 --> 00:04:06,120
那期权市场就有点像一张赌桌

107
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,120
能看出那些最顶尖的玩家

108
00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,329
对未来到底是怎么下注的

109
00:04:10,329 --> 00:04:13,628
咱们就去这张赌桌上看看有没有什么线索

110
00:04:13,628 --> 00:04:14,889
在看数据之前

111
00:04:14,889 --> 00:04:17,509
咱们得先了解一个词儿叫偏度

112
00:04:17,509 --> 00:04:18,899
英文是skill

113
00:04:18,899 --> 00:04:20,598
你不用管它复杂的定义

114
00:04:20,598 --> 00:04:22,499
就把它简单理解成是市场

115
00:04:22,499 --> 00:04:24,870
对暴跌这件事的保险费

116
00:04:24,870 --> 00:04:26,730
这个偏度指数越高

117
00:04:26,730 --> 00:04:29,829
就说明大家越害怕市场突然来个大跳水

118
00:04:29,829 --> 00:04:32,550
愿意花更多的钱去买个下跌险

119
00:04:32,550 --> 00:04:33,990
有了这个概念

120
00:04:33,990 --> 00:04:35,649
你再看这条时间线

121
00:04:35,649 --> 00:04:37,430
就跟看心电图一样

122
00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:39,800
能看出市场情绪的变化

123
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,560
你看一个月前

124
00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,329
因为地缘政治问题

125
00:04:43,329 --> 00:04:45,970
这个偏度指数直接冲到了99

126
00:04:45,970 --> 00:04:47,310
percent的历史高位

127
00:04:47,310 --> 00:04:49,779
说明当时市场都快吓坏了

128
00:04:49,779 --> 00:04:51,759
后来呢情况缓和

129
00:04:51,759 --> 00:04:54,360
指数掉到了只有5percent的低位

130
00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:55,759
大家松了口气

131
00:04:55,759 --> 00:04:59,620
但是关键看今天他又开始往上拐了

132
00:04:59,620 --> 00:05:00,829
这说明什么

133
00:05:00,829 --> 00:05:04,009
说明那种担心的情绪又回来了

134
00:05:04,009 --> 00:05:05,930
这里还有个稍微技术性一点

135
00:05:05,930 --> 00:05:07,500
但非常关键的细节

136
00:05:07,500 --> 00:05:08,560
报告里提到

137
00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,589
焦裕元现在普遍持有一种叫做假码正直的头寸

138
00:05:12,589 --> 00:05:13,629
你也不用管这个词儿

139
00:05:13,629 --> 00:05:14,430
具体啥意思

140
00:05:14,430 --> 00:05:17,899
就把它想象成一个市场的稳定器或者减震器

141
00:05:17,899 --> 00:05:21,199
它的效果就是市场跌的时候它会拖一把

142
00:05:21,199 --> 00:05:23,370
市场涨的时候它会压一下

143
00:05:23,370 --> 00:05:26,470
所以它会让市场的大幅波动变得非常困难

144
00:05:26,470 --> 00:05:27,410
就是为什么

145
00:05:27,410 --> 00:05:29,189
虽然大家心里都挺担心的

146
00:05:29,189 --> 00:05:30,810
但市场还是这么平静

147
00:05:30,810 --> 00:05:32,879
因为他被这个机制给锁住了

148
00:05:32,879 --> 00:05:34,420
需要一个非常大的外力

149
00:05:34,420 --> 00:05:37,230
也就是一个催化剂才能打破这种局面

150
00:05:37,230 --> 00:05:41,230
那么高盛的交易团队自己是怎么看的呢

151
00:05:41,230 --> 00:05:43,949
这里有一句他们的原话非常直接

152
00:05:43,949 --> 00:05:48,310
他们倾向于压住价格和波动率双双下滑

153
00:05:48,310 --> 00:05:50,209
你看这个判断很明确了

154
00:05:50,209 --> 00:05:52,089
他们认为市场会继续磨

155
00:05:52,089 --> 00:05:54,529
价格和波动都会往下走

156
00:05:54,529 --> 00:05:57,129
这可是来自一线交易员的判断

157
00:05:57,129 --> 00:05:58,339
分量很重

158
00:05:58,339 --> 00:06:00,800
好了咱们看了这么多数据

159
00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,540
分析了这么多动向

160
00:06:02,540 --> 00:06:05,860
现在是时候把这些碎片拼起来了

161
00:06:05,860 --> 00:06:08,540
这个看起来平平无奇的交易日

162
00:06:08,540 --> 00:06:12,160
到底给我们传递了什么最重要的信息呢

163
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:13,949
我总结了三点

164
00:06:13,949 --> 00:06:16,810
第一你要知道这只是暂停

165
00:06:16,810 --> 00:06:18,339
还不是恐慌

166
00:06:18,339 --> 00:06:21,459
连长结束是因为大家变得谨慎了

167
00:06:21,459 --> 00:06:22,949
而不是害怕了

168
00:06:22,949 --> 00:06:25,449
第二市场现在被锁住了

169
00:06:25,449 --> 00:06:27,709
他在等待一个强大的催化剂

170
00:06:27,709 --> 00:06:30,788
而这个催化剂就是即将到来的财报

171
00:06:30,788 --> 00:06:32,709
第三也是最关键的

172
00:06:32,709 --> 00:06:35,428
聪明钱自己都还没想好怎么办

173
00:06:35,428 --> 00:06:37,350
他们内部出现了分歧

174
00:06:37,350 --> 00:06:39,670
这就意味着一旦方向选定

175
00:06:39,670 --> 00:06:42,170
市场的能量可能会瞬间爆发

176
00:06:42,170 --> 00:06:46,990
所以说到底所有人的目光都投向了未来一周

177
00:06:46,990 --> 00:06:47,769
你想想

178
00:06:47,769 --> 00:06:51,329
将近1/4的标普500公司都要公布财报

179
00:06:51,329 --> 00:06:53,418
这就像一场密集的轰炸

180
00:06:53,418 --> 00:06:54,579
那么问题来了

181
00:06:54,579 --> 00:06:58,178
到底会是哪家公司或者哪个行业的财报

182
00:06:58,178 --> 00:06:59,819
成为那个打破瓶颈

183
00:06:59,819 --> 00:07:01,788
引爆市场的催化剂呢

184
00:07:01,788 --> 00:07:05,420
这恐怕就是接下来最值得我们期待的大戏了

评论采集失败

采集完成，该视频无弹幕