【The Motley Fool】美国运通能实现10%的年化回报吗？

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欢迎最新一期《怪才傻瓜》排行榜

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我正按计划进行

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我们有长期关注者托比·博德隆和马特·弗兰克尔

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为数据库中前两百名潜力股进行1到10分评级

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这是美国运通股票代码

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A X P首先

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我们将评估美银的业务实力

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包括行业地位和竞争因素

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十分是无敌的

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一分是毫无希望

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马特评7分

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托比这里给9分

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是的

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九分啊

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呃

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MX

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我喜欢这个

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在信用卡领域这是一个闭环模型

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意味着他们掌控支付网络

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他们发行信用卡

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他们承做并发放信贷

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他们完全掌控信用卡全流程

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这让他们在行业中占据独特地位

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品牌也非常强大

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呃

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竞争激烈

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不过

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呃

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这也限制了他们的增长能力和定价权

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这也意味着

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而在高端市场

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这些信用卡

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意味着高额营销预算

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对吧

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这是需要考虑的因素

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是的

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我同意托比说的大部分观点

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呃

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信用卡行业具有高度周期性

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这也是我给出较低评分的原因

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不仅如此

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信用卡业务正面临挑战

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目前

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听说总统计划将信用卡利率限制在10%

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两党阵营对此多有支持

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这带来不确定性

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但真正影响评分的是周期性因素

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同时该闭环系统已被资本壹号收购

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还有维萨和万事达

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这些是开放型系统

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换句话说

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就像银行在承销

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那个

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那些不是他们管理的

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十分是沃伦·巴菲特

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一分是霍默

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辛普森马特在九分

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托比你在八分

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是的

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我是CEO

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斯蒂文·奎尔

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我希望我读对了

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正确

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他掌权近十年了

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自2018年起

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干得很好

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确实表现亮眼

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他在科斯科丑闻后接手

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呃

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当美信失去那笔业务时

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他做得

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我认为干得非常出色

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真正打造了现在的高端和MAX品牌

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是的

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不

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我绝对同意

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你提到的科斯科丑闻

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美信以惊人方式复苏

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他们成功吸引了千禧一代

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嗯

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你怎么

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我是说

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我

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我不认识其他人

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谁能让人年付八百九十五美元办信用卡

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还乐于接受

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因为这些是人们想要的福利

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而且

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不仅如此，第三方还承担费用

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Lululemon信用卡福利

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美信承担了这部分费用

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这确实

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你知道的

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女性承担了大部分费用

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我认为他们真正为产品增加了价值

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以经济高效的方式

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这是一款高端信用卡产品

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在财务方面优于市场其他高端产品

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十分是堡垒

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一就是天啊

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马特在八分位

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托比

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你是七分

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是啊

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2025年营收创历史新高

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增长仍保持两位数

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投资回报率相当不错

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强劲增长同样令人欣喜

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呃

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这里债务规模很大

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不过嘿

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这是银行业务的常态

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所以不要

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你知道的

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不要只看他们的债务水平

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哇

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这里发生了什么

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这正是业务运作方式

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但财务状况相当健康

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所以我给七分

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是的

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另外我要补充的是，美信拥有极高质量的客户群体

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因为他们的违约率远低于竞争对手

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不到

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是的

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他们的

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呃

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净核销率约为资本的半数

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一个是

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所以

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就信用卡业务而言

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经济模式非常出色

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马特

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我们来谈谈估值

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以及其安全性如何

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曾是彩票般的投资

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所以我给出10%到15%的预期

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我认为它将跑赢市场

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对于银行股整体而言

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或者利率预计将在未来几年逐步下调

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至少在未来两三年内

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这将提振消费者信心

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从而促进信用卡消费等

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而且当前处于银行友好的政治环境

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银行业目前存在诸多积极催化剂

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我给安全性打了六分

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嗯，我认为

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正如我所说的那场金融危机

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你可以看到我之前提到的违约率作为优势

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真的飙升到

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两位数水平

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快速说明

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是的关于回报率

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我获得了5%到10%的收益

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略低于这个水平

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我认为当前行业竞争和经济担忧

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或许这些监管问题将在未来几年限制增长

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安全性评分为七分

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汽车品牌非常非常强势

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这同样适用于整个行业

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嗯

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并导致股价小幅下跌

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尤其是由信贷驱动的衰退并导致更多违约

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那里会出现问题

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正如马特提到的

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但我仍认为相对安全

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感谢托比和马特

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他们给予美国运通总体七分的高分

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十分之四的评分

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没有顶部和马特的持有

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美国运通已有约十五年历史

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现在

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每日市场日七点关注新排行榜

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东部时间

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接下来是克雷托斯S

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暂且这样

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