BV1Pq9fBrENV · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,580 嗨大家好 2 00:00:00,580 --> 00:00:01,720 直接切入正题 3 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,019 今天咱们来深度拆解一份刚刚出炉 4 00:00:05,019 --> 00:00:06,689 分量极重的研报 5 00:00:06,689 --> 00:00:07,849 在这份报告里 6 00:00:07,849 --> 00:00:09,849 耶伦什政权强势出手 7 00:00:09,849 --> 00:00:13,300 把中国医疗器械巨头联影医疗的评级 8 00:00:13,300 --> 00:00:15,039 一把拉高到了买入 9 00:00:15,039 --> 00:00:17,289 而且还大幅上调着目标价 10 00:00:17,289 --> 00:00:20,070 如果你平时就在盯医疗科技这个板块 11 00:00:20,070 --> 00:00:22,769 那今天这份解读你绝对不能错过 12 00:00:22,769 --> 00:00:25,670 这份二0226年4月底的报告 13 00:00:25,670 --> 00:00:27,210 真的给联影医疗 14 00:00:27,210 --> 00:00:30,259 划出了一道非常漂亮的增长曲线 15 00:00:30,259 --> 00:00:33,738 耶姆乳的分析师为什么突然这么乐观呢 16 00:00:33,738 --> 00:00:37,198 底气就在于他们刚刚交出的一季度成绩单 17 00:00:37,198 --> 00:00:38,600 实在太亮眼 18 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,439 再加上管理层给出了一份极具攻击性的前瞻 19 00:00:42,439 --> 00:00:43,390 业绩指引 20 00:00:43,390 --> 00:00:45,789 这一切其实都在向市场喊话 21 00:00:45,789 --> 00:00:48,390 这家公司正在加速狂奔 22 00:00:48,390 --> 00:00:51,240 接下来咱们的路线图很清晰 23 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,149 先看他怎么在同行里脱颖而出 24 00:00:54,149 --> 00:00:57,130 接着深度拆解一季度的财报数据 25 00:00:57,130 --> 00:00:58,829 然后聊聊出海战略 26 00:00:58,829 --> 00:01:02,420 最后落脚到具体的估值测算和风险提示 27 00:01:02,420 --> 00:01:03,840 好进入第一部分 28 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,920 在同行中脱颖而出 29 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,859 背后的投资逻辑到底是什么 30 00:01:08,859 --> 00:01:11,180 野村的分析师在报告里 31 00:01:11,180 --> 00:01:13,530 可以说是毫不吝啬赞美之词啊 32 00:01:13,530 --> 00:01:14,769 他们直接点出 33 00:01:14,769 --> 00:01:18,269 联影是中国增长最快的医疗器械品牌之一 34 00:01:18,269 --> 00:01:19,280 大家想想 35 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,400 在目前这种充满变数的市场环境下 36 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,420 能拿到国际大投行这样分量的倍数 37 00:01:25,420 --> 00:01:26,900 认为你是跑得最快的 38 00:01:26,900 --> 00:01:30,060 这本身就说明了公司基本盘有多么稳固 39 00:01:30,060 --> 00:01:32,780 也就是他们上调评级的最核心催化剂 40 00:01:32,780 --> 00:01:34,420 基于这种冲劲 41 00:01:34,420 --> 00:01:35,079 也存 42 00:01:35,079 --> 00:01:36,859 直接把目标价拉高到了 43 00:01:36,859 --> 00:01:39,680 137.60元人民币 44 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,269 要知道就在报告发布前一天 45 00:01:42,269 --> 00:01:43,549 也就是4月28日 46 00:01:43,549 --> 00:01:46,120 它的收盘价才112块多 47 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:47,000 算下来 48 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,959 这可是高达22.5帕的潜在上涨空间 49 00:01:50,959 --> 00:01:53,280 这绝对不是随便微调一下 50 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:54,640 而是真金白银的 51 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,418 再重新给这家公司的未来定价 52 00:01:57,418 --> 00:01:59,519 接下来是第二部分 53 00:01:59,519 --> 00:02:02,739 第一季度财务表现深度剖析 54 00:02:02,739 --> 00:02:06,379 咱们来看看究竟是什么硬核数据在驱动 55 00:02:06,379 --> 00:02:07,980 这次评级上调 56 00:02:07,980 --> 00:02:09,590 咱们先盯营收 57 00:02:09,590 --> 00:02:11,250 2026年一季度 58 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:12,949 连有的顶线销售额 59 00:02:12,949 --> 00:02:15,729 直接干到了29.1亿元人民币 60 00:02:15,729 --> 00:02:17,009 这是个什么概念 61 00:02:17,009 --> 00:02:18,689 在整个医疗设备行业 62 00:02:18,689 --> 00:02:21,430 都在面临各种宏观挑战的逆风局里 63 00:02:21,430 --> 00:02:25,030 他依然稳稳拿下了17排升比的同比正增 64 00:02:25,030 --> 00:02:29,169 这足以说明市场对他们家设备的需求是刚性的 65 00:02:29,169 --> 00:02:32,400 但更觉得其实是利润表现 66 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,520 他的营业利润增速非但没拖后腿 67 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,219 反而跑出了19帕的同比增幅 68 00:02:38,219 --> 00:02:40,810 直接反超了营收的17帕 69 00:02:40,810 --> 00:02:42,469 这个信号太关键了 70 00:02:42,469 --> 00:02:43,389 他告诉我们 71 00:02:43,389 --> 00:02:45,069 公司不仅货卖的多 72 00:02:45,069 --> 00:02:47,169 而且赚钱的效率更高了 73 00:02:47,169 --> 00:02:50,259 规模效益已经实打实地跑出来了 74 00:02:50,259 --> 00:02:54,020 如果你像我一样喜欢扣利润表的细节的way 75 00:02:54,020 --> 00:02:56,110 你会发现一个特别有意思的点 76 00:02:56,110 --> 00:03:00,449 一季度的营业利润率来到了13.4percent 77 00:03:00,449 --> 00:03:02,009 这是怎么抠出来的啊 78 00:03:02,009 --> 00:03:03,169 看眼轮的拆解 79 00:03:03,169 --> 00:03:05,889 这很大程度上要归功于研发费用 80 00:03:05,889 --> 00:03:08,969 以及销售和管理费用增速的放缓 81 00:03:08,969 --> 00:03:11,270 也就是说人家在内部控费 82 00:03:11,270 --> 00:03:14,259 精细化管理这块确实下足了功夫 83 00:03:14,259 --> 00:03:15,159 当然了 84 00:03:15,159 --> 00:03:16,039 看研报 85 00:03:16,039 --> 00:03:17,020 咱们得客观 86 00:03:17,020 --> 00:03:19,939 也能也点出了一股小小的逆风 87 00:03:19,939 --> 00:03:23,120 受到市场定价压力和关税的影响 88 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,219 一季度的毛利率其实是稍微掉了一点的 89 00:03:26,219 --> 00:03:27,719 降到了46.6 90 00:03:27,719 --> 00:03:30,280 同比下滑了2.8个百分点 91 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,400 不过好在管理层也透了底 92 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,020 高毛利的高端设备 93 00:03:34,020 --> 00:03:35,460 现在卖得越来越好 94 00:03:35,460 --> 00:03:38,319 算是把这个缺口给对冲掉了一些 95 00:03:38,319 --> 00:03:40,479 那么面对这些挑战 96 00:03:40,479 --> 00:03:41,680 要怎么破局呢 97 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,020 进入第三部分 98 00:03:43,020 --> 00:03:46,030 聊聊他的海外战略和业界指引 99 00:03:46,030 --> 00:03:49,300 这可是他未来的核心增长引擎 100 00:03:49,300 --> 00:03:51,340 大家看这两组数据 101 00:03:51,340 --> 00:03:55,219 真的是把管理层的战略意图展现的淋漓尽致 102 00:03:55,219 --> 00:03:56,969 反差太强烈了 103 00:03:56,969 --> 00:03:58,229 在国内市场 104 00:03:58,229 --> 00:04:01,620 预期给的是相对求稳的低双位数增长 105 00:04:01,620 --> 00:04:03,900 但是一转头看向海外市场 106 00:04:03,900 --> 00:04:05,900 简直是把油门踩到底了 107 00:04:05,900 --> 00:04:08,539 直接给出了同比增长至少50 108 00:04:08,539 --> 00:04:10,180 percent的超强指引 109 00:04:10,180 --> 00:04:11,099 毫无疑问 110 00:04:11,099 --> 00:04:14,689 出海就是联影现在死磕的第二增长曲线 111 00:04:14,689 --> 00:04:18,509 那这个至少5%是拍脑门定出来的吗 112 00:04:18,509 --> 00:04:19,550 言论报告说 113 00:04:19,550 --> 00:04:20,528 当然不是 114 00:04:20,528 --> 00:04:21,608 这背后的底气 115 00:04:21,608 --> 00:04:24,348 一是海外高端医疗设备需求 116 00:04:24,348 --> 00:04:26,288 确实在实打实的回暖 117 00:04:26,288 --> 00:04:30,408 二是联影在那些海外顶尖客户圈子里的名气 118 00:04:30,408 --> 00:04:32,480 真的是越来越响了 119 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:33,180 说白了 120 00:04:33,180 --> 00:04:36,699 人家的机器在国际大院里越来越吃得开了 121 00:04:36,699 --> 00:04:39,250 就是业绩能飙升的催化剂 122 00:04:39,250 --> 00:04:41,649 最后我们进入第四部分 123 00:04:41,649 --> 00:04:44,959 估值目标价和风险提示 124 00:04:44,959 --> 00:04:48,800 来看看投行背后的财务数学题是怎么算的 125 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,959 分析师给目标价肯定得有严密的模型支撑 126 00:04:52,959 --> 00:04:56,180 Y诺这次算出137.60块 127 00:04:56,180 --> 00:04:59,480 用的是非常经典的现金流折现模型 128 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,490 也就是DCF在他们的假设里 129 00:05:02,490 --> 00:05:05,589 加权平均资本成本设定在10.1破散 130 00:05:05,589 --> 00:05:08,298 永续增长率给的是4.0扩散 131 00:05:08,298 --> 00:05:10,338 这两个核心参数都没变 132 00:05:10,338 --> 00:05:13,298 纯粹是因为国内外销售前景太好 133 00:05:13,298 --> 00:05:16,170 硬生生把整体估值给抬了上去 134 00:05:16,170 --> 00:05:19,490 大家可以看看附录里的这张历史走势图 135 00:05:19,490 --> 00:05:21,829 野村对联影的评级和目标价 136 00:05:21,829 --> 00:05:24,230 其实是一直在跟着市场波动的 137 00:05:24,230 --> 00:05:27,959 但你看最近这次的买入升级动作非常干脆 138 00:05:27,959 --> 00:05:31,399 这其实就是在极其扎实的财报数据支撑下 139 00:05:31,399 --> 00:05:34,079 做出的一个决定性的向上重估 140 00:05:34,079 --> 00:05:35,980 不过做投资嘛 141 00:05:35,980 --> 00:05:39,579 咱们永远得留直眼睛看风险对吧 142 00:05:39,579 --> 00:05:42,038 为了保持视角的客观平衡 143 00:05:42,038 --> 00:05:42,399 野 144 00:05:42,399 --> 00:05:46,819 努亚也明明白白地列出了三个潜在的下行风险 145 00:05:46,819 --> 00:05:50,418 第一国面市场万一增长放缓怎么办 146 00:05:50,418 --> 00:05:53,199 第二海外这50万的扩张步子 147 00:05:53,199 --> 00:05:55,180 如果迈的没那么顺怎么办 148 00:05:55,180 --> 00:05:57,699 第三一旦市场风向变了 149 00:05:57,699 --> 00:06:00,319 现在的估值溢价会不会缩水 150 00:06:00,319 --> 00:06:02,740 这些都是咱们要盯紧的变量 151 00:06:02,740 --> 00:06:04,519 所以归根结底 152 00:06:04,519 --> 00:06:06,000 真正的考验在于 153 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,139 联影医疗到底能不能在接下来的时间里 154 00:06:09,139 --> 00:06:11,158 用足够经验的执行力 155 00:06:11,158 --> 00:06:14,259 把这项庞大的出海战略完美落地 156 00:06:14,259 --> 00:06:16,800 他们能不能跑赢国内市场的阻力 157 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,658 并用真金白银的业绩撑起目前的高估值溢价 158 00:06:20,658 --> 00:06:24,000 这个问题真的非常值得我们持续追踪 159 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:24,660 好了 160 00:06:24,660 --> 00:06:26,459 今天的深度解读就到这里 161 00:06:26,459 --> 00:06:27,660 希望对你有启发 162 00:06:27,660 --> 00:06:29,060 咱们下期再见
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