美股涨不涨的，全看一个数据，本周刚刚更新。【2026-05-01】

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,840
哈喽大家好

2
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:02,680
欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评

3
00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:03,580
我是sunny

4
00:00:03,580 --> 00:00:06,679
今天是2026年5月1号星期五

5
00:00:06,679 --> 00:00:09,460
标普指数今天上涨21.11点

6
00:00:09,460 --> 00:00:10,720
涨幅0.2%

7
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,730
九指数今天刷新7272点高点后

8
00:00:14,730 --> 00:00:16,670
形成较长上影线

9
00:00:16,670 --> 00:00:18,829
这种冲高回落的上影线

10
00:00:18,829 --> 00:00:22,469
说明日内空头反扑上涨不是太连贯

11
00:00:22,469 --> 00:00:24,460
多头冲高失败啦

12
00:00:24,460 --> 00:00:26,800
这个是超短线空投的信号

13
00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,519
标普指数强势上涨

14
00:00:28,519 --> 00:00:30,399
可能面临短期调整

15
00:00:30,399 --> 00:00:33,039
但是大方向仍然是上涨的

16
00:00:33,039 --> 00:00:35,060
我没有看到什么重大利空

17
00:00:35,060 --> 00:00:38,130
可以扭转当前强势上涨的趋势

18
00:00:38,130 --> 00:00:41,969
纳斯达克指数今天上涨了222.13点

19
00:00:41,969 --> 00:00:43,939
涨幅0.89%

20
00:00:43,939 --> 00:00:46,740
纳指的上影线比标普短一点

21
00:00:46,740 --> 00:00:48,890
短线趋势也会好一点

22
00:00:48,890 --> 00:00:50,929
这是纳指第六根阳线

23
00:00:50,929 --> 00:00:54,340
连续出现阳线是短线强势的标志

24
00:00:54,340 --> 00:00:56,420
今天纳指还如预期一样

25
00:00:56,420 --> 00:00:58,479
果断突破2万5000点

26
00:00:58,479 --> 00:01:01,018
首次拿下关键整数大关

27
00:01:01,018 --> 00:01:04,060
下周预计纳指还将惯性上涨

28
00:01:07,519 --> 00:01:08,900
跌幅0.3%

29
00:01:08,900 --> 00:01:09,340
一

30
00:01:09,340 --> 00:01:11,140
出现了纳指最强

31
00:01:11,140 --> 00:01:14,349
标普次之道指下跌的结构

32
00:01:14,349 --> 00:01:16,819
这个是整体有利的组合

33
00:01:16,819 --> 00:01:20,299
当科技股涨传统老登不涨时

34
00:01:20,299 --> 00:01:23,030
美股的上涨趋势会可靠一些

35
00:01:23,030 --> 00:01:26,280
因为老登股撑不起美股大盘

36
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,239
本周五大科技股公布财报结果

37
00:01:29,239 --> 00:01:30,879
我觉得有一个数字

38
00:01:30,879 --> 00:01:34,299
将决定美股还能涨多高和多久

39
00:01:34,299 --> 00:01:37,200
这个数字就是资本支出总量

40
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:41,099
美股四大科技巨头公布了今年资本支出总额

41
00:01:41,099 --> 00:01:44,219
预计将突破7250亿美元

42
00:01:44,219 --> 00:01:46,120
每个都拿出了家底

43
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,019
准备大干一场

44
00:01:48,260 --> 00:01:50,659
亚马逊资本支出2000亿

45
00:01:50,659 --> 00:01:52,400
谷歌1900亿

46
00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,359
Meta145000000000

47
00:01:54,359 --> 00:01:57,228
微软可能也会达到1900亿

48
00:01:57,228 --> 00:02:01,509
市场除了谷歌给予肯定股价大涨之外啊

49
00:02:01,509 --> 00:02:06,150
其他三家云服务巨头基本上财报后都是下跌的

50
00:02:06,150 --> 00:02:08,750
但是这个7250亿

51
00:02:08,750 --> 00:02:11,490
是美股整体大涨的关键数字

52
00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:13,860
我们要感谢这四家公司

53
00:02:13,860 --> 00:02:16,319
因为这钱要花在哪里呢

54
00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:17,699
数据中心

55
00:02:17,699 --> 00:02:19,819
那数据中心除了房子

56
00:02:19,819 --> 00:02:21,889
主要值钱的就是硬件

57
00:02:21,889 --> 00:02:22,870
Cpu

58
00:02:22,870 --> 00:02:26,469
GPU内存硬盘冷却系统

59
00:02:26,469 --> 00:02:28,879
机架线缆等等

60
00:02:28,879 --> 00:02:30,840
数据中心大规模投资

61
00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:31,979
有人花钱

62
00:02:31,979 --> 00:02:33,650
就有人在收钱

63
00:02:33,650 --> 00:02:35,909
于是这7250亿

64
00:02:35,909 --> 00:02:39,219
就是这些半导体公司会收到的营业收入

65
00:02:39,219 --> 00:02:43,419
过去几年科技巨头的CPPEX年年增长

66
00:02:43,419 --> 00:02:46,930
所以半导体公司的业绩也就年年增长

67
00:02:46,930 --> 00:02:48,870
半导体公司业绩增长

68
00:02:48,870 --> 00:02:53,019
费城半导体指数30只成份股就一直涨

69
00:02:53,019 --> 00:02:54,459
科技股当中

70
00:02:54,459 --> 00:02:56,799
半导体是美股的重要板块

71
00:02:56,799 --> 00:02:59,030
股王就是半导体龙头

72
00:02:59,030 --> 00:03:02,539
那么市场大的逻辑就非常清晰了

73
00:03:02,539 --> 00:03:04,419
云巨头增加资本支出

74
00:03:04,419 --> 00:03:06,919
CAPEX半导体业绩增长

75
00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,080
股价上涨

76
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,990
美股大盘上涨

77
00:03:09,990 --> 00:03:11,289
等哪一天

78
00:03:11,289 --> 00:03:14,150
云巨头的资本支出增长速度放缓

79
00:03:14,150 --> 00:03:17,300
那么美股上涨也就要告一段落了

80
00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:18,520
我查了一下

81
00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:19,479
以微软

82
00:03:19,479 --> 00:03:20,280
亚马逊

83
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,750
谷歌和meta为主的云巨头

84
00:03:22,750 --> 00:03:25,409
可能会维持资本支出到2027年

85
00:03:25,409 --> 00:03:26,849
或2028年

86
00:03:26,849 --> 00:03:29,750
而2026年因为数据已经公布

87
00:03:29,750 --> 00:03:32,180
今年的金额基本上稳了

88
00:03:32,180 --> 00:03:35,400
数据中心的出租率只要还很高

89
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,329
剩余还没有履约的订单还很高

90
00:03:38,329 --> 00:03:41,860
那数据中心的投资扩张就还会继续

91
00:03:41,860 --> 00:03:44,199
目前微软有5300亿

92
00:03:44,199 --> 00:03:46,099
谷歌有4600亿

93
00:03:46,099 --> 00:03:48,709
亚马逊有1850亿

94
00:03:48,709 --> 00:03:50,829
这些剩于履约的义务啊

95
00:03:50,829 --> 00:03:54,229
也就是RPO合计超过了1万亿

96
00:03:54,229 --> 00:03:57,830
如果市场上数据中心的出租率下降了

97
00:03:57,830 --> 00:04:00,590
显卡每小时租金越来越便宜

98
00:04:00,590 --> 00:04:03,240
或者token的价格大幅下跌

99
00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,909
那么云巨头就有可能会削减资本支出

100
00:04:06,909 --> 00:04:09,810
另外如果股价老是下跌

101
00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:11,810
云服务多赚钱的速度

102
00:04:11,810 --> 00:04:14,629
老是赶不上资本支出花钱的速度

103
00:04:14,629 --> 00:04:16,529
在股东会的压力下

104
00:04:16,529 --> 00:04:18,509
云巨头也有可能会削减

105
00:04:18,509 --> 00:04:21,060
或者是不再增加资本支出

106
00:04:21,420 --> 00:04:24,060
资本支出养活了半导体产业

107
00:04:24,060 --> 00:04:27,370
成为美股持续上涨的关键原动力

108
00:04:27,370 --> 00:04:30,370
一旦资本支出总量开始放缓

109
00:04:30,370 --> 00:04:32,788
美股的上涨就会停滞

110
00:04:32,788 --> 00:04:35,129
今天提出这一研究结论

111
00:04:35,129 --> 00:04:38,439
并不是说今年资本支出就会见顶

112
00:04:38,439 --> 00:04:40,800
而是说未来我们要特别关注

113
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,180
四大科技巨头的资本支出计划

114
00:04:43,180 --> 00:04:46,120
即便你不持有这四只股票

115
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,459
本周美联储维持利率不变

116
00:04:48,459 --> 00:04:51,449
鲍月完成最后一次记者会讲话

117
00:04:51,449 --> 00:04:55,050
货币政策短期内不会成为美股的扰动因素

118
00:04:55,050 --> 00:04:58,720
而伊朗战争也没有重新开打的迹象

119
00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,540
美国政府官员称

120
00:05:00,540 --> 00:05:02,910
对伊朗的敌对行动结束

121
00:05:02,910 --> 00:05:05,129
美国总统对外军事行动

122
00:05:05,129 --> 00:05:06,689
如果超过60天

123
00:05:06,689 --> 00:05:08,459
需要国会授权

124
00:05:10,519 --> 00:05:12,519
4月7号停火之后

125
00:05:12,519 --> 00:05:14,490
这个时间就暂停了

126
00:05:14,490 --> 00:05:18,548
眼下川普政府无需就战争寻求国会授权

127
00:05:18,548 --> 00:05:20,928
众议院院长约翰逊称

128
00:05:20,928 --> 00:05:24,629
国会没有必要介入美国对伊朗的军事行动

129
00:05:24,629 --> 00:05:27,959
因为目前美国没有处于战争状态

130
00:05:27,959 --> 00:05:31,100
同时伊朗提出新的谈判提议

131
00:05:31,100 --> 00:05:33,500
由巴基斯坦转交给美国

132
00:05:33,500 --> 00:05:35,779
具体内容没有详细公布

133
00:05:35,779 --> 00:05:38,538
只看到川普表示并不满意

134
00:05:38,538 --> 00:05:41,778
伊朗提出的三段式退出方案啊

135
00:05:41,778 --> 00:05:43,658
先是互相停战

136
00:05:43,658 --> 00:05:45,559
开放霍尔木兹海峡

137
00:05:45,559 --> 00:05:49,730
然后伊朗才愿意开始讨论核计划问题

138
00:05:50,009 --> 00:05:53,709
这样的方案显然没有办法被白宫所接受

139
00:05:53,709 --> 00:05:55,529
互相开放海峡

140
00:05:55,529 --> 00:05:58,990
相当于就让伊朗在经济上缓过一口气儿了

141
00:05:58,990 --> 00:06:02,269
而现在呢川普其实就是要断其粮草

142
00:06:02,269 --> 00:06:04,189
让他不攻自破

143
00:06:04,189 --> 00:06:06,089
另外有一则消息说

144
00:06:06,089 --> 00:06:09,990
川普将于5月14号到15号访问中国

145
00:06:09,990 --> 00:06:13,490
这个是3月底访华计划的推迟版本

146
00:06:13,490 --> 00:06:16,540
当时说战争焦灼跑不开

147
00:06:16,540 --> 00:06:20,769
那么既然说是本月中旬川普要访华

148
00:06:20,769 --> 00:06:25,500
是不是就意味着这半个月停火状态将会维持呢

149
00:06:25,740 --> 00:06:28,139
我觉得大概率会维持停火

150
00:06:28,139 --> 00:06:30,720
但达不成任何谈判成果

151
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,360
巨头财报发完

152
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,240
美联储议息会议开完

153
00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,079
战争也暂停了

154
00:06:36,079 --> 00:06:39,889
诶好像没有什么消息能阻止大盘上涨了

155
00:06:39,889 --> 00:06:41,350
正在此时

156
00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:42,389
说时迟

157
00:06:42,389 --> 00:06:43,439
那时快

158
00:06:43,439 --> 00:06:47,300
迅雷不及掩耳关税战又开始了

159
00:06:47,300 --> 00:06:51,038
今天川普表示将提高欧盟汽车关税

160
00:06:51,038 --> 00:06:52,999
川普很高兴地宣布

161
00:06:52,999 --> 00:06:56,439
下周将提高对欧盟汽车和卡车的关税

162
00:06:56,439 --> 00:06:59,639
从15%提高到25%

163
00:06:59,639 --> 00:07:03,279
原因是美国与欧盟签订了贸易协定

164
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,459
但川普说欧盟没有遵守协议

165
00:07:06,459 --> 00:07:10,040
关税是2025年美股黄金坑的主要外力

166
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,819
伊朗战争是2026年黄金坑的重要原因

167
00:07:13,819 --> 00:07:16,470
每年来一个也挺好的啊

168
00:07:16,470 --> 00:07:18,949
2月份软件股结构性大跌

169
00:07:18,949 --> 00:07:22,930
引起投资者对软件板块可能会灭顶之灾的关注

170
00:07:22,930 --> 00:07:27,250
当时有一个蓝色猫头鹰的基金公司被巨额赎回

171
00:07:27,250 --> 00:07:30,029
于是就冻结了投资者赎回

172
00:07:30,029 --> 00:07:33,089
这个事情在2月份引起舆论关注

173
00:07:33,089 --> 00:07:37,670
最近这些私募信贷基金正在说服投资者说

174
00:07:37,670 --> 00:07:39,350
软件行业没有那么惨

175
00:07:39,350 --> 00:07:40,959
别急着撤资

176
00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:42,740
巴克莱分析师估计

177
00:07:42,740 --> 00:07:45,360
软件公司可能占这些商业贷款的

178
00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:46,668
20%以上

179
00:07:46,668 --> 00:07:48,249
研究结果显示

180
00:07:48,249 --> 00:07:51,240
投资中只有一小部分面临风险

181
00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,279
黑石的私募基金当中

182
00:07:53,279 --> 00:07:57,430
因人工智能不利影响的投资占比不到5%

183
00:07:57,430 --> 00:07:58,709
黑石认为

184
00:07:58,709 --> 00:08:01,699
软件行业将不得不适应人工智能

185
00:08:01,699 --> 00:08:05,980
另外一家私募基金ariis capital的CEO表示

186
00:08:05,980 --> 00:08:08,220
并非所有软件公司都面临

187
00:08:08,220 --> 00:08:10,240
被人工智能颠覆的风险

188
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,720
事实上很多公司正在拥抱人工智能

189
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,529
并实现了增长

190
00:08:15,529 --> 00:08:17,529
私募信贷风险这件事儿

191
00:08:17,529 --> 00:08:19,990
曾经鲍威尔在讲话中提到过

192
00:08:19,990 --> 00:08:22,800
美联储正在关注这样的风险

193
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,959
同时软件股大跌到底是不是市场的差错

194
00:08:26,959 --> 00:08:28,740
目前还很难说

195
00:08:28,740 --> 00:08:30,779
如果市场过度反应

196
00:08:30,779 --> 00:08:33,039
那么软件股糟糕的表现

197
00:08:33,039 --> 00:08:35,318
则会成为低价买入的机会

198
00:08:35,318 --> 00:08:37,298
从巴克莱黑石

199
00:08:37,298 --> 00:08:40,979
蓝色猫头鹰和艾瑞斯等公司的研究来看

200
00:08:40,979 --> 00:08:44,269
软件股并没有到全行业崩溃的程度

201
00:08:44,269 --> 00:08:46,950
今年以来股市欺软怕硬

202
00:08:46,950 --> 00:08:48,370
软件股下跌

203
00:08:48,370 --> 00:08:49,909
硬件股大涨

204
00:08:49,909 --> 00:08:51,990
那么软件股下跌了

205
00:08:51,990 --> 00:08:53,350
相对便宜了

206
00:08:53,350 --> 00:08:57,190
板块里面必然会存在一些有投资价值的个股

207
00:08:57,190 --> 00:08:59,250
科技局投批录完财报

208
00:08:59,250 --> 00:09:02,460
二三线公司也会陆续提交业绩

209
00:09:02,460 --> 00:09:05,320
这里边儿就会有大量的软件公司

210
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,049
我认为软件板块的个股也会逐渐分化

211
00:09:09,049 --> 00:09:12,289
AI赋能成功的会恢复强势

212
00:09:12,289 --> 00:09:15,929
被AI替代的最后可能会喋喋不休

213
00:09:15,929 --> 00:09:20,210
闪迪SNDK目标价有人喊到2000

214
00:09:20,210 --> 00:09:23,200
这个是分析师最高的一个目标价

215
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,460
平均也有1409

216
00:09:25,460 --> 00:09:28,019
最低目标价是1100

217
00:09:28,019 --> 00:09:32,360
花旗分析师将闪迪的目标价上调到了1300

218
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,360
SNDK昨天财报盘后下跌

219
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,080
但今天已上涨8.25%

220
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,129
收盘强势依旧

221
00:09:40,129 --> 00:09:43,409
有没有可能快速上涨到1400以上呢

222
00:09:43,409 --> 00:09:45,509
那当然是有的啊

223
00:09:45,509 --> 00:09:47,070
财报的不确定性风险

224
00:09:47,070 --> 00:09:49,710
过去股价仍然维持主升浪

225
00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:51,360
那就会不断拉高

226
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,139
吸引散户进场

227
00:09:53,139 --> 00:09:56,639
而且股价在上涨初期往往非常犹豫

228
00:09:56,639 --> 00:09:59,960
在上涨的末期往往非常疯狂

229
00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:02,059
下周没有特别大的财报

230
00:10:02,059 --> 00:10:06,970
但是有几只明星股公募业绩比较重要的是AAMD

231
00:10:06,970 --> 00:10:10,590
5月5号同天公布财报的还有SHOPIFY

232
00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:12,669
SMCI和papal

233
00:10:12,669 --> 00:10:17,100
散户热捧的POTR则是5月4号公布财报

234
00:10:17,340 --> 00:10:19,460
AAMD最近持续走牛

235
00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:20,879
资金提前提升

236
00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:22,529
赌下周的财报

237
00:10:22,529 --> 00:10:25,309
AAMD的AI芯片后来居上

238
00:10:25,309 --> 00:10:28,289
市场关注的是今年的业绩指引

239
00:10:28,289 --> 00:10:29,169
M i

240
00:10:29,169 --> 00:10:31,250
300芯片的年营收指引

241
00:10:31,250 --> 00:10:34,850
可能会从35到40亿美元向上调整

242
00:10:34,850 --> 00:10:36,549
如果营收指引上调

243
00:10:36,549 --> 00:10:39,220
股价有一定机会会继续上涨

244
00:10:39,220 --> 00:10:41,360
木头姐看好的SHOPIFY

245
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:46,089
正好是介于AI替代和利用AI之间的关键点上

246
00:10:46,089 --> 00:10:48,969
shopp five受到SETH大跌影响

247
00:10:48,969 --> 00:10:50,408
也跌去了不少

248
00:10:50,408 --> 00:10:53,809
但是这家公司大量运用AI辅助工具

249
00:10:53,809 --> 00:10:57,879
这些AI工具提高了商家的粘性和订阅收入

250
00:10:57,879 --> 00:11:01,899
下周的财报或许是股价变盘的时间窗口

251
00:11:01,899 --> 00:11:04,940
今天我IPCR公开账户截图时

252
00:11:04,940 --> 00:11:06,799
净值是20.7万

253
00:11:06,799 --> 00:11:08,940
当天盈利4025

254
00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:10,909
涨幅1.98%

255
00:11:10,909 --> 00:11:13,070
今天总算跑赢大盘

256
00:11:13,070 --> 00:11:15,789
而且也快回到年初数了

257
00:11:19,190 --> 00:11:20,409
持仓不多

258
00:11:20,409 --> 00:11:22,129
但是涨幅可观

259
00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:24,149
这两只股票各有特色

260
00:11:24,149 --> 00:11:26,309
市场上找不到第二只

261
00:11:26,309 --> 00:11:29,240
比如c r c l circle啊

262
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,419
市场上并没有相同的个股可以买

263
00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:34,720
r d d t ready也是一样的

264
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:36,690
整个美股仅此一只

265
00:11:36,690 --> 00:11:39,570
特斯拉今天上涨了2.41%

266
00:11:39,570 --> 00:11:43,129
主要是之前那一波下跌趋势差不多结束了

267
00:11:43,129 --> 00:11:44,879
最近正在筑底

268
00:11:44,879 --> 00:11:50,059
马斯克的另一只巨无霸SPACEX预计在6月份入演

269
00:11:50,059 --> 00:11:50,899
下半年

270
00:11:50,899 --> 00:11:54,500
IPO号称一上市就2万亿市值

271
00:11:54,500 --> 00:11:56,379
作为亲兄弟公司

272
00:11:56,379 --> 00:11:57,820
特斯拉的总市值

273
00:11:57,820 --> 00:12:00,429
大概率会在1万亿到2万亿之间

274
00:12:00,429 --> 00:12:04,509
对应的股价是265美元到530之间

275
00:12:04,509 --> 00:12:07,269
马斯克的第一目标是600美元

276
00:12:07,269 --> 00:12:10,429
否则他的1万亿薪酬就是画饼充饥

277
00:12:10,429 --> 00:12:12,250
一点意义也没有啊

278
00:12:12,250 --> 00:12:15,539
最后有多位观众要求点评英特尔

279
00:12:15,539 --> 00:12:19,299
英特尔在4月23号发布财报后进一步上涨

280
00:12:19,299 --> 00:12:21,139
基本面困境反转

281
00:12:21,139 --> 00:12:23,250
CPU成了香饽饽

282
00:12:23,250 --> 00:12:26,909
英特尔目前强势牛股上涨惯性好

283
00:12:26,909 --> 00:12:30,370
短线不破5日均线就可以继续看涨

284
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:31,100
好嘞

285
00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:32,620
今天的节目就分享到这里

286
00:12:32,620 --> 00:12:33,740
感谢大家收看

287
00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:34,960
祝大家周末愉快

288
00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:36,279
我们下期节目再见

289
00:12:36,279 --> 00:12:37,059
拜拜

共 2 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕