【NaNa说美股】20260303明明下跌，为什么有暴涨的错觉？！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月3号周二

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昨天大资金噶空又多后

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今天就不演了

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全球股市呢开盘暴跌

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美股这一边

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四大股指集体大幅低开

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标普500指数早盘时间一度重挫2.5%

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最低跌到了六千七百十

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获得支撑

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随后借着川普的一句话拉起来

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川普表示

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伊朗的导弹快打光了

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他愿意与伊朗幸存官员合作

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另外呢

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美国政府正考虑动用美军

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为通过霍尔木兹海峡的游轮和天然气

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运输船提供保护

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总之美股一跌

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川普就搭扣

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虽然最终是大股指集体收跌哈

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但是较盘中的低点大幅回升

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个股呢跌多涨少

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只有少数几个板块收率

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target百货公布的亮眼业绩提振了零售板块

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但是中东冲突不断的扩大

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加剧了人们对经济增长放缓的担忧

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费城半导体指数今年跌的就比较重了

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成分股一个涨的都没有

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台积电

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英特尔都大幅走低

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相比起来

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英伟达已经算是比较抗跌了

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昨天没能一鼓作气

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把上方这个缺口给完全的封闭掉

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嗯通常来说哈

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强势股向下跳空

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缺口在3~5个交易日内会回补

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就算是要大跌

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也得先回补之后才能够放心的跌

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现在已经过了两个交易日了

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这个周五结束之前

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或许会将这个缺口呢给彻底的回补掉

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今天有个消息

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彭博引述知情人士称

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美国政府正考虑限制英伟达向单一中国公司

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出口AI芯片的数量

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探讨

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将每家中国企业购买英伟达H200芯片的上限

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设在7.5万枚

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AMD的mi325芯片出货量也要计入客户的限额

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但这个消息对今天这个股价

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几乎是毫无影响的哈

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本来财报就没有把中国市场的营收

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给计算在内嘛

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预设为零

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所以嗯限任额不限额的也无所谓啦

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明后天呢有博通

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迈威尔科技等明星科技股将会公布财报

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这两只股价最近都已经跌到年线附近了

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看看他们的财报能不能够力挽狂澜

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扭转趋势

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韩国综合指数

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嗯下跌了8.5%

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昨天周一韩国没有开市

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三星电子和SK海力士这两个龙头带头跳水

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存储这一波都涨了多久了

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积累了巨大的获利盘

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这一次汹涌而出

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出现了多头踩踏

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韩国散户的融资仓位被连环爆破

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造成了股价的螺旋式下跌

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其实上个周五外资就已经一件卖出了韩国

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那天我们在视频里还还提到过这件事

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平时我都不说其他地区的古诗

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因为美股这边都看不过来了

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根本没时间看其他的地区

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但是周五那天我说存储这一块要小心了

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因为外资呢一键卖出了存储的大本营韩国股市

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而那天只有韩国本地机构与散户还在头

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铁的承接

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比起冲昏了头的那个韩国本地韭菜们

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咱们当然要更相信外资的敏感嗅觉

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虽然存储叙事很强

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但是华尔街要卖的时候

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分分钟就能够给你换一套叙事

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现在蓄势焦点就转向能源冲击与衰退风险了

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什么存储供需失衡啦

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价格上涨了

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通通都要暂时先放一边

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这次的中东战争对日本韩国经济冲击最大

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因为通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油

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89%流向亚洲

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日本韩国和印度是主要目的地

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虽然彭博社这张图表显示

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中国进口的石油呢

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占经有该海峡试运输石油总量的近40%

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但是中国据说从俄罗斯那边买了很多石油

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库存很高呃

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现在海峡被封闭了

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能源进口依赖高度

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87%和81%的

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日韩风险才是最为脆弱的

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供应冲击一旦持续

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将会对这两国的经济运行构成重大威胁

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韩币和日元的贬值压力巨大

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他们的股市也同样承压

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自高斯早苗胜选以来

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日经也疯牛了一阵子了哈

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这也是一次性的收割

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三星电子和SK海力士一跌

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直接就把美股存储的单红纳值

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CSNDK也给拖下水了

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股价今天跳空低开

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跌了8.7%

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由于人工智能需求旺盛

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存储芯片供应短缺

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很多投资者认为

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存储芯片的风险相比其他AI股票更低

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结果呢呃完全没有避险的作用哈

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这次机构镰刀收割的就是这些存储股

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不过呢我也不敢太悲观啦

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能够跌到50日均线

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估计就会又有呃新的大量买盘进来了

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今天还有一个很有意思的现象

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就是避险资产出现了明显的分化

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金银都走出了冲高回落行情

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白银从91美元

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延安市跌到了83美元盎司附近

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短线波动幅度明显的放大

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黄金这边更是让很多人看不懂哈

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早盘还一度上涨超过1%呢

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随后快速回吐全部涨幅还转跌了

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表面逻辑上地缘冲突理应利多黄金呀

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但是这次行情却没有形成持续性的单边拉升

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主要有几方面的原因

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第一呢就是能源价格飙升

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强化了通胀预期

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市场重新评估未来利率路径

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推升实际收益率

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黄金对实际利率是极为敏感的

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当实际利率产生的时候

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这些无息资产的吸引力自然就下降

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这个是金价冲高回落的核心宏观变量哈

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第二呢就是黄金此前已经运行在历史高位区域

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多头拥挤度偏高

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在仓位结构偏重的情况之下

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如果新增避险资金不足以推动趋势延续的话

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就容易触发止盈盘

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形成技术性回吐啊

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第三就是交易层面的风险控制心理

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仍然在之前

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资商所多次通过上调保证金进行去杠杆管理

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让部分投机资金对过度拉杠杆呢保持警惕

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都被打怕了哈

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市场在高波动环境下

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就更倾向于控制仓位

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而不是无节制的去追涨黄金

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所以当前贵金属更多体现为阶段性的避险博弈

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而并非是趋势性的风险失控定价

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只有当冲突升级到影响全球金融体系

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稳定了

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信用市场出现明显的压力的时候

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黄金呢才会重新获得持续性的买盘

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与此同时

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原油走势就明显的更强

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拦截无人机的碎片坠落

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导致中东最大的石油存储和贸易中心之一

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阿联酋主要石油贸易枢纽发生了大火

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加剧了能源断供恐慌

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CCTA正在全力做多石油哈

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这个油门都要踩到油箱里去了

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为什么这次在避险属性上

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能源端的表现要强于贵金属呢

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因为两者的定价逻辑不通

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能源属于食物供给风险

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定价一旦关键运输通道或者是产能设施受扰

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原油与天然气的供给与其会立即收紧

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价格弹性呢远高于金属类的资产

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供应

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中断风险是直接而且计时的

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而贵金属更多体现为金融风险的定价

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它依赖的是这个流动性啦

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利率路径还有系统性风险

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预期

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并不是实体供给链条的即时冲击

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所以呢在冲突初期

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如果市场判断呃这个全球金融体系仍然稳定

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金价就往往难以形成单边趋势

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像欧洲天然气就是一个典型的案例

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虽然当前欧洲天然气库存仍处于相对安全区间

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但是远期补库存的成本预期迅速上调

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资金就提前抢跑推升这个期货价格

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能源市场对供应不确定性的反应节奏

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通常是快于贵金属对金融风险的反应节奏

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这也是为什么本轮行情

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做能源走这个单边趋势了

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而黄金是走震荡

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标普500指数

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今天呢盘中差增到6700以十点后嗯

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迅速拉回哈

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日K收出一根带有长下影线的大阳线

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十字星

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这个位置并不是随便反弹的

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看上去好像是川普一句话

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其实6700点就是多头必须要死守的关键位

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因为这里是系统新策略

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CCTA由多转空的中期翻转点哈

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一旦有效跌破的话

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不仅是CCTA

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包括波动率控制基金在内的系统性资金呢

213
00:09:26,980 --> 00:09:30,860
都会因为波动率飙升而被迫大幅降低杠杆

214
00:09:30,860 --> 00:09:33,659
那个时候的抛压就不是现在这么客气

215
00:09:33,659 --> 00:09:34,940
不是一点点卖了哈

216
00:09:34,940 --> 00:09:38,000
而是模型触发后的机械性踩踏

217
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,039
会成指数级别的放大

218
00:09:40,039 --> 00:09:42,340
所以今天盘中呃

219
00:09:42,340 --> 00:09:45,620
指数碰到这个关键水平就被迅速拉起

220
00:09:45,620 --> 00:09:49,839
本质呢仍然是技术结构在自我保护

221
00:09:49,839 --> 00:09:52,438
现在你说这个基本面有改善吗

222
00:09:52,438 --> 00:09:54,999
战争有这个趋于缓和吗

223
00:09:54,999 --> 00:09:55,839
并没有

224
00:09:55,839 --> 00:09:58,139
川普今天仍在向我们暗示

225
00:09:58,139 --> 00:10:01,240
像战争可能会持续数天或者数周

226
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,940
就是说这局势仍可能会扩大

227
00:10:03,940 --> 00:10:07,840
所以呢这一波反转和昨天的低开高走

228
00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,240
性质是一样的

229
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,639
并不是有基本面多头的主动买入哈

230
00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:15,460
而是结构与仓位驱动

231
00:10:15,460 --> 00:10:20,710
所以明天仍有可能再次回落到6720点

232
00:10:20,710 --> 00:10:24,649
在6700~6900这个大的区间

233
00:10:24,649 --> 00:10:28,149
市场呢处于高位流动性博弈区

234
00:10:28,149 --> 00:10:32,230
所以这会有反复的拉扯剧烈震荡

235
00:10:32,230 --> 00:10:35,360
甚至短线逼空诱空的动作

236
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,039
只有真正有效跌破6700

237
00:10:39,039 --> 00:10:42,200
这个趋势结构才会明显的走坏

238
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:43,700
在那之前啊

239
00:10:47,759 --> 00:10:51,600
我们呢要做的是紧这个技术位

240
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,700
不要被市场情绪

241
00:10:53,700 --> 00:10:58,340
或者那些呃唯恐天下不乱的财经媒体给带节奏

242
00:10:58,340 --> 00:10:59,379
通常来说

243
00:10:59,379 --> 00:11:01,539
判断市场是否触底

244
00:11:01,539 --> 00:11:02,940
需要关注两件事

245
00:11:02,940 --> 00:11:04,059
一个是波动率指数

246
00:11:04,059 --> 00:11:07,279
VIX开盘冲高后是否持续回落

247
00:11:07,279 --> 00:11:11,379
二呢是股指大幅低开之后是否持续修复

248
00:11:11,379 --> 00:11:13,159
今天两条都满足了

249
00:11:13,159 --> 00:11:15,089
VX最高冲到了28

250
00:11:15,089 --> 00:11:17,129
前面几次冲到这个水平

251
00:11:17,129 --> 00:11:19,349
美股都出现了阶段性反弹

252
00:11:19,349 --> 00:11:21,740
这次结构也很像VX回落

253
00:11:21,740 --> 00:11:22,639
指数回升

254
00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:26,149
但是现在WX仍未跌破20

255
00:11:26,149 --> 00:11:28,269
只要没压到20下方

256
00:11:28,269 --> 00:11:30,850
就不能确认底部已经成立

257
00:11:30,850 --> 00:11:33,828
它随时可能像今天这样再来一次脉冲

258
00:11:33,828 --> 00:11:36,948
所以呢要么再冲一次到30以上

259
00:11:36,948 --> 00:11:41,229
代表恐慌极点出现真正的投降式交易

260
00:11:41,229 --> 00:11:42,940
要么持续回落哈

261
00:11:42,940 --> 00:11:44,980
并且稳定在20以下

262
00:11:44,980 --> 00:11:48,789
那才算是防御情绪的明显卸载

263
00:11:48,789 --> 00:11:51,470
否则呢只能说使阶段性修复

264
00:11:51,470 --> 00:11:53,289
不能说趋势反转

265
00:11:53,289 --> 00:11:54,009
说实话

266
00:11:54,009 --> 00:11:55,769
今天虽然盘出嗯

267
00:11:55,769 --> 00:11:57,958
股指大跳水mix冲高

268
00:11:57,958 --> 00:12:00,278
但是我个人并没有感受到恐慌

269
00:12:00,278 --> 00:12:02,169
不知道大家是否也和我一样

270
00:12:02,169 --> 00:12:06,099
可能也跟我最近把仓位降到很低有关系

271
00:12:06,099 --> 00:12:08,918
这就是平时做仓位管理的意义

272
00:12:08,918 --> 00:12:11,089
只要仓位控制好哈

273
00:12:11,089 --> 00:12:12,749
市场再怎么震荡

274
00:12:12,749 --> 00:12:13,629
无法预测

275
00:12:13,629 --> 00:12:15,168
你的心态都不会乱

276
00:12:19,740 --> 00:12:21,080
感到害怕了

277
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:22,309
紧张了

278
00:12:22,309 --> 00:12:23,470
心慌了

279
00:12:23,470 --> 00:12:26,669
那只能说明你的仓位可能过重了

280
00:12:26,669 --> 00:12:30,149
或者是你的持仓里啊有太多的高BA股票

281
00:12:30,149 --> 00:12:33,090
需要这个重新梳理一下嗯

282
00:12:33,090 --> 00:12:36,769
把仓位调整到一个让你比较舒适的状态

283
00:12:36,769 --> 00:12:37,990
其他个股方面

284
00:12:37,990 --> 00:12:41,590
最近光通信板块抢了存储的风头

285
00:12:41,590 --> 00:12:43,830
因为达豪挣40亿美元

286
00:12:43,830 --> 00:12:46,639
同步入股这个行业巨头

287
00:12:46,639 --> 00:12:52,120
CEO hr与LITE为下一代AI算力架构的光互联

288
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:52,620
时代呢

289
00:12:52,620 --> 00:12:54,879
提前锁定关键产能

290
00:12:54,879 --> 00:12:59,220
还承诺未来4年呃数10亿美元的采购合同

291
00:12:59,220 --> 00:13:01,500
资金重点支持这两家公司

292
00:13:01,500 --> 00:13:06,029
美国本土扩产与CPU关键机关器供给

293
00:13:06,029 --> 00:13:08,309
文档数据库平台提供

294
00:13:08,309 --> 00:13:10,070
向MONGODB公布财报之后

295
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,340
虽然公司Q4业绩强劲

296
00:13:15,340 --> 00:13:19,039
但是今年一季度的营收与每股收益指引

297
00:13:19,039 --> 00:13:20,938
都不仅是长预期啊

298
00:13:20,938 --> 00:13:24,119
这让投资者再度担忧AI颠覆性冲击

299
00:13:24,119 --> 00:13:25,278
财报公布之后

300
00:13:25,278 --> 00:13:28,578
还有多家机构下调了对该股的目标价

301
00:13:28,578 --> 00:13:29,879
虽然我们看日线

302
00:13:29,879 --> 00:13:31,399
今天股价低开高走

303
00:13:31,399 --> 00:13:34,360
出现了一些空头回补买盘

304
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,379
但是我们看月线走势

305
00:13:36,379 --> 00:13:39,240
股价处于这个三角形整理形态中

306
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,850
运性下影线支撑在140美元

307
00:13:42,850 --> 00:13:46,100
而股价呢正在向这个支撑接近

308
00:13:46,100 --> 00:13:47,480
不过也不会呃

309
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,460
这个一口气就这么跌下来的哈

310
00:13:49,460 --> 00:13:50,899
在二百十二附近

311
00:13:50,899 --> 00:13:52,909
我们看到有一个次级支撑

312
00:13:52,909 --> 00:13:55,149
前面几次股价跌到这个支撑位

313
00:13:55,149 --> 00:13:59,929
就会持续出现一波较为显著的反弹行情

314
00:13:59,929 --> 00:14:01,870
反弹的幅度还蛮高的嗯

315
00:14:01,870 --> 00:14:04,549
大约为75%到85%之间

316
00:14:04,549 --> 00:14:06,929
然后才再次掉下来

317
00:14:06,929 --> 00:14:09,250
回踩这个三角形下沿支撑

318
00:14:09,250 --> 00:14:11,669
所以呢若是对这支股票感兴趣

319
00:14:11,669 --> 00:14:13,669
想要抄底还可以再等一等哈

320
00:14:13,669 --> 00:14:18,460
不过我现在其实尽量少做个股了

321
00:14:18,460 --> 00:14:22,340
尤其是像这种处于风口浪尖的软件股

322
00:14:22,340 --> 00:14:23,568
更加不碰了

323
00:14:23,568 --> 00:14:25,649
因为做个股真的太难了哈

324
00:14:25,649 --> 00:14:28,089
尤其是自己不了解的公司

325
00:14:28,089 --> 00:14:30,328
就怕万一运气不好

326
00:14:30,328 --> 00:14:31,068
碰到一个

327
00:14:31,068 --> 00:14:33,399
比如像TTD这样的坑爹货

328
00:14:33,399 --> 00:14:36,279
曾几何时这也是一支明星科技股呀

329
00:14:36,279 --> 00:14:39,080
可如今呢坟头草都已经三尺高了

330
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:40,139
还有fire

331
00:14:40,139 --> 00:14:42,240
说好的价值投资呢

332
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,600
呃长牛股呢这个b to b呢

333
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:49,309
结果呢上涨辛辛苦苦花十几年崩盘只需几个月

334
00:14:49,309 --> 00:14:51,710
所以做个股真的很心累啊

335
00:14:51,710 --> 00:14:55,289
有很多时候都是这只股票上面赚了钱

336
00:14:55,289 --> 00:14:56,590
那只股票亏了

337
00:14:56,590 --> 00:14:58,889
这边赚钱要补那边的窟窿

338
00:14:58,889 --> 00:15:01,450
各种突发消息有烦不胜烦

339
00:15:01,450 --> 00:15:03,490
所以想要少操心的话

340
00:15:03,490 --> 00:15:07,220
投资组合里最好就是不要超过五只个股

341
00:15:07,220 --> 00:15:11,759
而且呢所有的个股加起来不要超过仓位的一半

342
00:15:11,759 --> 00:15:15,320
把另外一半留给大盘基准指数ETF

343
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:16,440
什么VOOO啦

344
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,960
QQ垃圾pi了呃

345
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,500
看个人喜好就挑一两个

346
00:15:21,500 --> 00:15:23,940
这样是最舒服的比例哈

347
00:15:23,940 --> 00:15:26,580
当然现金是永远要保留部分的

348
00:15:26,580 --> 00:15:27,639
以备万一嘛

349
00:15:27,639 --> 00:15:32,259
所以这次呢就是我仓位里个股也减得很少嗯

350
00:15:32,259 --> 00:15:33,759
只剩下英伟达

351
00:15:33,759 --> 00:15:34,470
微软

352
00:15:34,470 --> 00:15:36,429
还有一点联合健康

353
00:15:36,429 --> 00:15:37,470
甲骨文

354
00:15:37,470 --> 00:15:39,309
这个的确是蛮坑爹的

355
00:15:39,309 --> 00:15:42,139
但其他的基本能剪的都剪了哈

356
00:15:42,139 --> 00:15:44,340
就剩下大盘指数ETF了

357
00:15:44,340 --> 00:15:45,909
所以这个就不太欢

358
00:15:45,909 --> 00:15:48,669
你看现在这个局势变化那么快

359
00:15:48,669 --> 00:15:50,889
一觉醒来又发生这个变动

360
00:15:50,889 --> 00:15:52,980
一觉醒来又发生那个变动

361
00:15:52,980 --> 00:15:55,059
根本就看都看不过来

362
00:15:55,059 --> 00:15:56,519
精力有限呀

363
00:15:56,519 --> 00:16:00,580
所以呢就是只能呃暂时更侧重大盘了

364
00:16:00,580 --> 00:16:02,580
行今天我们就说到这里

365
00:16:02,580 --> 00:16:04,200
那我们明天见拜拜

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