【Meet Kevin】资本寒冬：硅谷大佬集体撤资OpenAI？

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香烟是OpenAI的主要支持者

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包括微软

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亚马逊和英伟达

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可能开始缩减对OpenAI的投资

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因为他们开始资金紧张

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这真的很奇怪

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而且我知道这设定了高标准，看看

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如果我让你一直悬着

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你值得退订

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但我觉得我要展示的内容

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会让你挠头并感叹

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哦见鬼了

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他们开始资金紧张了

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我以为英伟达拥有全世界的钱

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我也是这么想的

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直到我看到我刚看到的

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让我先展示给你看

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让我们从亚马逊说起，亚马逊在1月29日

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我生日的第二天

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宣布正在与OpenAI洽谈投资500亿美元

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这是独家消息

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据《华尔街日报》报道

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你可以看到这里

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亚马逊洽谈投资500亿美元

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作为ChatGPT和OpenAI新轮融资的一部分

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GPT和OpenAI

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新一轮融资

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估值可能高达8300亿美元

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注意这里没有任何附加条件

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需要记住8300亿美元的估值

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一件非常有趣的事情发生了

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这可能预示OpenAI的崩盘

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其雄厚资金支持者开始撤离

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观看亚马逊500亿美元投资OpenAI

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现在可能取决于IPO或AGI

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换句话说

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新增了附加条件

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嘿

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要么上市

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从而验证股票能独立支撑

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其实际价值与估值相符

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或解决如何实现

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嗯

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如何定义人工通用智能

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我们尚未接近这一目标

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在实现之前

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我们实际只投资150亿美元

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也许仍在谈判中

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这听起来越来越像撤资

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英伟达刚刚从OpenAI撤回的投资

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双方都达成一致

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嘿

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我们要部署一吉瓦电力

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每部署一吉瓦电力

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我们将投入十亿美元投资

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并且要这样做十次或最多十次

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这就是目标

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总价值

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这是一百亿美元

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当时所有人都对英伟达和OpenAI的这种巨额循环合作感到兴奋

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请注意

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当然詹森后来却撤回了承诺

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哦不不

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我们从未有过这个想法

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呃

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你知道的

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我们确实受邀投入了这么多

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但不

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我是说

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我们从未正式达成过这样的协议

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现在他们甚至无法完成这三十亿美元的融资轮

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正在讨论的这轮融资

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这可能并不意外

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当我们开始审视英伟达的资产负债表

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或许就能明白原因

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但首先需要理解这里提到的内容

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OpenAI的估值现在定格在8300亿美元

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融资前报价

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明白了

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这很有趣

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因为现在他们说亚马逊可能在这轮融资中投入最多150亿美元

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这将使OpenAI融资前估值达到7300亿美元

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好的

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但这里提到该轮融资可能估值高达8300亿美元

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这可能是指在那100亿美元注资之后

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因为数字显然完美契合

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但我觉得他们现在想说的是

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他们在这里巧妙省略了

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这个估值已包含这100亿美元

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如果这100亿实际只有70亿

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那么合并后的估值实际会是800亿

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或如果融资不足则为70亿

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80亿或75亿

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突然间那个看似不断增长的OpenAI估值

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其实并没有真正大幅增长

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它只是基于新增的最新资金

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也许这就是为什么像亚马逊和微软这样的公司会说

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你知道的

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或许我们真的不想再往这个肥猪身上砸钱了

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事实上，微软现在不再考虑大量投资

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他们曾计划投资不到十亿美元

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此前被表述为不到十亿美元的投资

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现在表述为

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微软预计将在十亿美元以下进行投资

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我们可以看到这种表述方式

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你知道你会听到不到十亿

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你可能会想八亿

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现在我们理解这全是框架和营销

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从技术上讲仍可能准确

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但框架和营销影响很大

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当人们撰写这些内容或泄露信息时

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现在微软预计投资低十亿美元

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可能像两亿四千万

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对

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这金额要小得多

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如果微软在撤资

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英伟达也在撤资

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亚马逊也在撤资

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整个计划开始显得即将失败

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这可不是好事

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是吗

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可能

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因为这些公司资金快用完了

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我们快速了解一下这些资产负债表

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我认为第一个需要理解的

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是英伟达

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我们去看看

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啊，抱歉

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我还有持续的咳嗽

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这真是最烦人的事

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不过暂且不提

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首先查看英伟达的声明并分析

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英伟达拥有巨额净利润

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我们知道四十二点

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九亿美元净利润

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他们应该资金充足

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没错

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毕竟经营现金流

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三

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单季度就有六亿美元

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公平地说

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他们以十三亿美元收购GROFOR大幅增加商誉

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他们确实用资金进行

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你知道的

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并非股权投资到

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不只是英特尔

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而是其他辅助公司

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比如他们投资的初创企业

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这些也在十-K文件中披露

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然后当然他们会投资国债

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并确保供应链承诺所需的现金可用

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更重要的是

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我认为需要关注资产负债表

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如果查看资产负债表

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可以看到英伟达拥有市场流通性资产

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加上应收账款

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我将这些合计为一百亿美元

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他们拥有价值两百亿美元的库存

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好的很好

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所以我们有

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你知道的

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一百亿美元的现金和应收账款

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看起来他们有足够的资金投入三十亿美元到开放领域

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人工智能没错

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不一定

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我们未来一年需支付约三十二亿美元账单

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这三十二亿美元已经是问题了

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这意味着现在实际自由现金流仅约七十亿美元

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但

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暂且假设

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暂时认为当前负债能抵消库存

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好的

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因此实际现金一百亿美元闲置

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我们可以投入OpenAI吗

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不

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别急

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财务说明中有个小问题

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在CFO评论中提到

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正好在这里

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资产负债表与现金流

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英伟达的供应链相关承诺总计九十五点二亿美元

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换句话说

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为了生产未来所需的

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几个季度

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大概三个季度

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以度过本财年剩余时间

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可能或其财年

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大致相同

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他们需要支出九十五点二亿美元

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需开始支付预付款

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仍需收回应收账款

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需偿还短期债务

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同时继续投资核心业务

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Weave或其他初创公司

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同时不仅要支付预付款

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还要在芯片制造时持续支付账单

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并支付供应链承诺的预付款

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这就是他们锁定行业地位的方式

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相信我

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并非所有人都能通过设计芯片获得75%的利润率

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英伟达并不制造芯片

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英伟达实际上除了设计芯片不做其他事

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现在

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这一点非常重要

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别误会我

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但真正他们在做的其实是

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他们充当中间商角色

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他们预留制造产能并支付定金

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他们收集芯片订单

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然后将芯片生产并运送给客户

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之后收取货款

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这是一项非常精明的

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高利润商业模式，许多人想参与其中

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但英伟达需要这笔资金来锁定供应链

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当供应链开放时，英伟达抢占产能

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AI就像我要那张百元大钞

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英伟达则说亲爱的

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我能赚很多钱

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但还不够多

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所以

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英伟达的资产负债表并不足够稳健

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向OpenAI投入大量资金

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AI或许这就是他们推迟承诺的原因

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毕竟他们目前每季度确实产生约330亿美元现金流

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他们能否直接动用现有承诺的100亿美元

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你知道的

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库存中的流动资金

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以及应收账款

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能否全部使用这些资金和下一季度现金流

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就宣称履行承诺

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然后可能在两季度后投资OpenAI

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是的

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大概如此，这显示 Jensen 需要做出决策

234
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:03,879
是否囤积库存

235
00:10:03,879 --> 00:10:05,799
还是交给OpenAI

236
00:10:05,799 --> 00:10:10,919
当Claude和Gemini开始分食他们的午餐

237
00:10:10,919 --> 00:10:14,690
亚马逊的情况也差不多

238
00:10:14,690 --> 00:10:16,350
看看亚马逊

239
00:10:16,350 --> 00:10:18,649
这是亚马逊的现金流表

240
00:10:18,649 --> 00:10:20,750
2025财年数据

241
00:10:20,750 --> 00:10:22,529
亚马逊的现金流

242
00:10:22,529 --> 00:10:24,279
几乎崩溃

243
00:10:24,279 --> 00:10:25,879
这里做个标记

244
00:10:25,879 --> 00:10:27,720
这样更清晰

245
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:28,759
看这里

246
00:10:28,759 --> 00:10:31,720
现金流32亿美元

247
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:37,809
去年约33亿美元现金流

248
00:10:37,809 --> 00:10:41,649
7亿美元现金流

249
00:10:41,649 --> 00:10:44,049
事实上现金流几乎为零

250
00:10:44,049 --> 00:10:50,240
这就是亚马逊，他们不得不借短期债务来 refinancing

251
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:51,519
还有一些其他短期债务

252
00:10:51,519 --> 00:10:52,200
他们又借了更多

253
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,759
因此他们净新增约十亿美元的短期债务

254
00:10:55,759 --> 00:10:59,779
然后这里他们又借入了净净长期债务

255
00:10:59,779 --> 00:11:04,279
我们估计大约八亿美元的长期债务

256
00:11:04,279 --> 00:11:08,039
亚马逊实际上不得不承担一些短期债务

257
00:11:08,039 --> 00:11:10,159
以及约八亿美元的长期债务

258
00:11:10,159 --> 00:11:12,818
因为他们的现金流非常低

259
00:11:12,818 --> 00:11:18,019
现在OpenAI伸出手说嘿

260
00:11:18,019 --> 00:11:19,559
我的投资呢

261
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,059
这些公司则回应道

262
00:11:21,059 --> 00:11:21,519
是啊

263
00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:24,509
我们自己也有些捉襟见肘

264
00:11:24,509 --> 00:11:29,850
这有点令人担忧，因为整个周期都依赖于此

265
00:11:29,850 --> 00:11:31,408
看看亚马逊吧

266
00:11:31,408 --> 00:11:32,428
但凯文

267
00:11:32,428 --> 00:11:35,769
亚马逊资产负债表上有780亿美元现金

268
00:11:35,769 --> 00:11:37,960
市值两位数的凯文

269
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:38,820
如果加起来

270
00:11:38,820 --> 00:11:40,360
就是一百亿美元

271
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:41,240
是的

272
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:42,539
这数学真不错

273
00:11:42,539 --> 00:11:44,840
但我们有多少应付账款

274
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:45,299
哦

275
00:11:45,299 --> 00:11:46,750
天啊，应付账款

276
00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:49,929
应付账款94亿加应计费用

277
00:11:49,929 --> 00:11:51,110
67亿

278
00:11:51,110 --> 00:11:54,690
总计1610亿美元的账单

279
00:11:54,690 --> 00:11:58,129
他们在账上有一千六百一十亿美元的账单

280
00:11:58,129 --> 00:12:00,889
而他们有1000亿美元现金

281
00:12:00,889 --> 00:12:04,690
这数学简直不像数学

282
00:12:04,690 --> 00:12:05,710
亚马逊就像

283
00:12:05,710 --> 00:12:08,200
呃，天啊

284
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,720
也许我们需要收紧一下

285
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,519
因为我们无法承担对OpenAI这样的大额投资

286
00:12:14,519 --> 00:12:16,480
尤其是如果这会变成彻底的失败

287
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:17,120
如果它会

288
00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:17,539
你知道的

289
00:12:17,539 --> 00:12:18,620
上市

290
00:12:18,620 --> 00:12:20,120
或者他们有了AGI

291
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,039
他们有了我们的专属技术

292
00:12:22,039 --> 00:12:24,519
或许值得为此举债

293
00:12:24,519 --> 00:12:26,339
否则

294
00:12:26,818 --> 00:12:29,339
我觉得我们拿不出这笔钱

295
00:12:29,339 --> 00:12:31,059
呃，别闹了，不过

296
00:12:31,059 --> 00:12:31,779
山姆·阿尔曼

297
00:12:31,779 --> 00:12:33,600
让我们看看微软吧，我的

298
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,019
或许微软更好

299
00:12:35,019 --> 00:12:37,259
我还没仔细看微软呢

300
00:12:37,259 --> 00:12:38,899
不过我们就随便玩玩吧

301
00:12:38,899 --> 00:12:40,539
看看微软有什么

302
00:12:40,539 --> 00:12:42,799
这是微软的最后一份报告

303
00:12:42,799 --> 00:12:44,919
所以我们去看最后三个月的数据

304
00:12:44,919 --> 00:12:47,100
2025年运营现金流

305
00:12:47,100 --> 00:12:48,500
我得了35分

306
00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:49,879
这里七张百万美元支票

307
00:12:49,879 --> 00:12:51,220
厂房、设备与固定资产

308
00:12:51,220 --> 00:12:51,860
哇

309
00:12:51,860 --> 00:12:56,159
我们的自由现金流也降至约60亿美元

310
00:12:56,159 --> 00:12:59,840
就是这样，一旦扣除固定资产增加部分

311
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,200
我们的自由现金流仅剩60亿美元

312
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,549
他们在融资方面做了什么

313
00:13:04,549 --> 00:13:06,090
这里就是融资部分

314
00:13:06,090 --> 00:13:09,049
他们最终回购了股票并派发股息

315
00:13:09,049 --> 00:13:10,480
还偿还了一部分债务

316
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,080
公平地说他们没有新增债务

317
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,139
像亚马逊那样

318
00:13:14,139 --> 00:13:16,409
亚马逊现在不得不举债

319
00:13:16,409 --> 00:13:18,710
如果我们看实际可用现金

320
00:13:18,710 --> 00:13:20,149
哦算了

321
00:13:20,149 --> 00:13:21,168
这太糟糕了

322
00:13:21,168 --> 00:13:22,708
我手头的可用现金大约

323
00:13:24,428 --> 00:13:24,808
抱歉

324
00:13:24,808 --> 00:13:25,048
两

325
00:13:25,048 --> 00:13:25,969
40亿美元

326
00:13:25,969 --> 00:13:27,399
呃嗯

327
00:13:27,399 --> 00:13:30,259
短期投资65亿美元

328
00:13:30,259 --> 00:13:32,440
总计89亿美元

329
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:33,639
但等等

330
00:13:33,639 --> 00:13:34,799
我有多少张支票

331
00:13:34,799 --> 00:13:36,710
我得支付这些费用

332
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:38,190
我们来看看这里

333
00:13:38,190 --> 00:13:39,409
如果转到这里

334
00:13:39,409 --> 00:13:42,340
如果用89减去3

335
00:13:42,340 --> 00:13:44,139
7减4.0

336
00:13:44,139 --> 00:13:45,600
8减10.0

337
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,690
1减2减20

338
00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:49,889
4.3

339
00:13:49,889 --> 00:13:51,649
我有约10.0

340
00:13:51,649 --> 00:13:54,220
80亿美元结余

341
00:13:54,659 --> 00:13:58,318
一旦支付今年到期的账单

342
00:13:58,318 --> 00:14:01,379
所以微软仅剩10.8亿美元结余

343
00:14:01,379 --> 00:14:04,058
难怪他们只考虑数十亿美元

344
00:14:04,058 --> 00:14:06,359
因为他们只剩10.8亿美元结余

345
00:14:06,359 --> 00:14:07,789
支付账单后

346
00:14:07,789 --> 00:14:08,350
请注意

347
00:14:08,350 --> 00:14:09,549
他们还在持有

348
00:14:09,549 --> 00:14:11,669
看这里这么多债务

349
00:14:11,669 --> 00:14:12,669
长期债务

350
00:14:12,669 --> 00:14:13,289
另外三个

351
00:14:13,289 --> 00:14:14,070
五亿

352
00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:17,409
长期收入税达二十七亿

353
00:14:17,769 --> 00:14:20,190
这些公司开始收紧开支

354
00:14:20,190 --> 00:14:22,750
并非因为他们想对老家伙耍狠

355
00:14:22,750 --> 00:14:24,909
而是因为他们必须开始做决策

356
00:14:24,909 --> 00:14:29,370
这是我们过去几年少有的情况

357
00:14:29,370 --> 00:14:32,129
这些公司现金充裕

358
00:14:32,129 --> 00:14:34,250
能够维持运营循环

359
00:14:34,250 --> 00:14:35,230
他们可以答应一切

360
00:14:35,230 --> 00:14:36,840
现在对所有事情都点头

361
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,559
公司开始需要做选择

362
00:14:39,559 --> 00:14:42,179
因此开始出现附加条件

363
00:14:42,179 --> 00:14:45,159
但问题是随着条件增多

364
00:14:45,159 --> 00:14:46,580
公司开始

365
00:14:46,580 --> 00:14:47,500
哦

366
00:14:47,500 --> 00:14:49,139
资金流动减少

367
00:14:49,139 --> 00:14:51,200
或许我们得小心些

368
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,100
人们收紧支出股价下跌

369
00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:55,250
人们陷入恐慌

370
00:14:55,250 --> 00:14:57,429
这就是詹森继续分析的地方

371
00:14:57,429 --> 00:14:58,330
CNBC

372
00:14:58,330 --> 00:15:00,389
他提出这个论点

373
00:15:00,389 --> 00:15:01,480
别担心

374
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:02,019
呃

375
00:15:02,019 --> 00:15:03,940
软件公司不应抛售

376
00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:05,899
软件公司不应抛售

377
00:15:05,899 --> 00:15:08,730
因为AI代理

378
00:15:08,730 --> 00:15:12,589
可以直接使用软件替代人力

379
00:15:12,589 --> 00:15:13,808
比如

380
00:15:13,808 --> 00:15:15,328
为何要开发新软件

381
00:15:15,328 --> 00:15:18,610
直接用这个软件就行

382
00:15:18,610 --> 00:15:20,590
这是我第一次听到这种论点

383
00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:22,599
接下来可能发生的是

384
00:15:22,599 --> 00:15:25,019
代理不会取代工具

385
00:15:25,019 --> 00:15:26,399
但代理会使用

386
00:15:26,399 --> 00:15:28,799
我是否不该在这里宣传这些内容

387
00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:30,580
感觉没人知道这件事

388
00:15:30,580 --> 00:15:32,759
我们试试小范围推广

389
00:15:32,759 --> 00:15:33,799
恭喜啊

390
00:15:33,799 --> 00:15:34,600
你做得太多了

391
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:35,440
大家都很喜欢你

392
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:36,340
人们敬佩你

393
00:15:36,340 --> 00:15:37,379
凯文·帕弗拉特在此

394
00:15:37,379 --> 00:15:39,840
金融分析师兼YouTuber 请凯文

395
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:41,259
很高兴听到你的见解

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