【NaNa说美股】20260318要俯冲脸着地了！

1
00:00:13,259 --> 00:00:13,859
大家好

2
00:00:13,859 --> 00:00:15,060
欢迎回到娜娜说美股

3
00:00:15,060 --> 00:00:17,300
今天是3月18号周三

4
00:00:17,300 --> 00:00:20,059
在美联储利率决议公布之前

5
00:00:20,059 --> 00:00:23,660
市场走势呢继续被中东局势所阻挡

6
00:00:23,660 --> 00:00:24,780
伊拉克宣布

7
00:00:24,780 --> 00:00:27,980
将通过一条接连库尔德斯坦与土耳其

8
00:00:27,980 --> 00:00:31,309
地中海港口及遗憾的输油管道

9
00:00:31,309 --> 00:00:34,469
绕过霍尔木兹海峡恢复原油出口

10
00:00:34,469 --> 00:00:35,429
与此同时

11
00:00:35,429 --> 00:00:38,250
美军使用钻地炸弹摧毁了伊朗

12
00:00:38,250 --> 00:00:40,939
靠近霍尔乌兹海峡的导弹阵地

13
00:00:40,939 --> 00:00:44,820
这被市场解读为在为航运安全清除障碍

14
00:00:44,820 --> 00:00:48,340
叠加白宫方面不断释放局势可控的信号

15
00:00:48,340 --> 00:00:51,140
曾给市场带来一定的乐观情绪

16
00:00:51,140 --> 00:00:51,740
让人觉得

17
00:00:51,740 --> 00:00:55,250
邮轮或许很快就可以重新安全通过海峡

18
00:00:55,250 --> 00:00:56,289
受此影响

19
00:00:59,950 --> 00:01:02,159
日韩股市暴力反弹

20
00:01:02,159 --> 00:01:04,359
就在亚太市场收盘之后

21
00:01:04,359 --> 00:01:07,109
新的突发消息再度打破了平衡

22
00:01:07,109 --> 00:01:10,930
伊朗最大气田南帕斯气田的部分区域

23
00:01:10,930 --> 00:01:11,969
遭到了袭击

24
00:01:11,969 --> 00:01:15,189
随后伊朗方面释放出更强硬的信号

25
00:01:15,189 --> 00:01:17,909
表示准备对包括卡塔尔

26
00:01:17,909 --> 00:01:18,189
沙特

27
00:01:18,189 --> 00:01:22,730
阿拉伯和阿联酋在内的海湾油气资产进行报复

28
00:01:22,730 --> 00:01:23,370
这意味着

29
00:01:23,370 --> 00:01:27,549
冲突的打击目标已经从此前的航运与通道

30
00:01:27,549 --> 00:01:30,799
进一步升级到上游生产端本身

31
00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:33,659
一旦上游产能受到实质性冲击

32
00:01:33,659 --> 00:01:38,250
那影响就会远比封锁运输更直接更持久

33
00:01:38,250 --> 00:01:39,209
消息一出啊

34
00:01:39,209 --> 00:01:41,530
原油价格又迅速由跌转涨

35
00:01:41,530 --> 00:01:44,640
美股股指期货呢也随之承压回落

36
00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,620
市场情绪再次从缓和预期切换回嗯

37
00:01:48,620 --> 00:01:49,918
供给冲击

38
00:01:49,918 --> 00:01:53,838
当前现实情况与美国官方口径之间啊

39
00:01:53,838 --> 00:01:55,530
存在着明显的落差

40
00:01:55,530 --> 00:01:58,049
虽然白宫团队不断的强调

41
00:01:58,049 --> 00:02:01,090
已经看到零星邮轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡

42
00:02:01,090 --> 00:02:02,978
但是从实际数据来看

43
00:02:02,978 --> 00:02:06,918
该区域的含运量呢仍较正常水平下降

44
00:02:06,918 --> 00:02:08,319
约98%

45
00:02:08,319 --> 00:02:10,620
几乎处于停滞状态

46
00:02:10,620 --> 00:02:14,360
所谓的恢复通行更多还是停留在信号层面

47
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,500
而并非实质性的修复

48
00:02:16,500 --> 00:02:18,699
如果这个瓶颈持续存在

49
00:02:18,699 --> 00:02:21,030
那波斯湾原有的流出量

50
00:02:21,030 --> 00:02:25,849
可能面临高达1500万桶每天的潜在损失

51
00:02:25,849 --> 00:02:28,250
这个规模甚至是2022年4月

52
00:02:28,250 --> 00:02:31,620
俄罗斯原油产量峰值损失的15倍

53
00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:36,329
一旦市场开始重新严肃定价这个供给缺口

54
00:02:36,329 --> 00:02:40,049
那油价的波动中速呢很可能会被整体抬高

55
00:02:40,049 --> 00:02:45,240
而不仅仅是呃目前短期情绪驱动的上下波动了

56
00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,159
在这样的背景之下

57
00:02:47,159 --> 00:02:49,889
通胀问题再次被推到了台前

58
00:02:49,889 --> 00:02:53,009
今天盘前公布的美国2月PPI数据

59
00:02:53,009 --> 00:02:57,560
无论是同比还是环比都明显高于市场预期

60
00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,909
说明即便不考虑近期油价的剧烈波动

61
00:03:01,909 --> 00:03:06,039
美国通胀本身就已经具备较强的粘性

62
00:03:06,039 --> 00:03:09,180
美联储面对的并不是一个被能源价格

63
00:03:09,180 --> 00:03:11,280
暂时扰动的通胀环境

64
00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,569
而是一个本身就偏顽固

65
00:03:13,569 --> 00:03:16,780
再叠加能源不确定性的复杂局面

66
00:03:16,780 --> 00:03:20,439
按照当前的这个PPI数据趋势

67
00:03:20,439 --> 00:03:22,439
至少在今年夏季

68
00:03:22,439 --> 00:03:25,669
通胀仍会远高于美联储2%的目标

69
00:03:25,669 --> 00:03:29,310
如果中东冲突导致油价维持在高位的话

70
00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,590
那这个时间窗口甚至可能被进一步拉长

71
00:03:32,590 --> 00:03:33,389
事实上

72
00:03:35,270 --> 00:03:38,849
运行在美联储2%的目标之上了

73
00:03:38,849 --> 00:03:41,009
而眼下的情况很可能意味着

74
00:03:41,009 --> 00:03:43,729
这种偏离还会再持续一年

75
00:03:43,729 --> 00:03:48,740
美联储很难有空间推进这个激进的宽松路径

76
00:03:48,740 --> 00:03:53,120
除非劳动力市场出现明显恶化甚至失速呃

77
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,819
因此呢在PPPI数据公布之后啊

78
00:03:55,819 --> 00:03:58,280
美元与美债收益率短线拉升

79
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,189
股指期货跌幅呢又进一步扩大

80
00:04:01,189 --> 00:04:03,969
标普500指数今天低开低走

81
00:04:03,969 --> 00:04:05,349
早盘一路承压

82
00:04:05,349 --> 00:04:06,469
到了下午两点

83
00:04:06,469 --> 00:04:08,409
美联储公布利率决议

84
00:04:08,409 --> 00:04:10,469
如市场预期按兵不动

85
00:04:10,469 --> 00:04:13,229
声明中预计通胀可能上行

86
00:04:13,229 --> 00:04:14,990
失业率保持稳定

87
00:04:14,990 --> 00:04:16,490
经济仍在扩张

88
00:04:16,490 --> 00:04:19,310
同时上调了GDP增速预期

89
00:04:19,310 --> 00:04:22,769
认为中东局势对美国经济的影响尚不明朗

90
00:04:22,769 --> 00:04:27,658
暂时没有把潜在的能源冲击呢纳入核心判断

91
00:04:27,658 --> 00:04:30,178
这份声明整体中性哈

92
00:04:30,178 --> 00:04:32,559
并没有明显的方向性

93
00:04:32,559 --> 00:04:36,600
更像是刻意避免释放任何强烈信号

94
00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,860
点阵图基本维持了去年12月的路径

95
00:04:39,860 --> 00:04:40,920
中位数显示

96
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,240
2026年和2027年各降息一次

97
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,168
2028年不再降息

98
00:04:46,168 --> 00:04:50,608
这个节奏显然要低于市场此前的宽松预期

99
00:04:50,608 --> 00:04:54,779
也与川普要求大幅降息的诉求相悖

100
00:04:54,779 --> 00:04:58,060
利率期货市场目前定价呢也大致对应在

101
00:04:58,060 --> 00:05:00,199
2026年年底12月哈

102
00:05:00,199 --> 00:05:04,420
或者是2027年初才会重新启动降息

103
00:05:04,420 --> 00:05:05,560
声明公布之后

104
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,908
市场的反应相对平淡

105
00:05:07,908 --> 00:05:12,459
真正的波动出现在随后的保威尔发布会上

106
00:05:12,459 --> 00:05:15,579
宝友的讲话本身并不算特别鹰派

107
00:05:15,579 --> 00:05:18,680
他强调美国经济仍在扩张

108
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:19,819
通胀略高

109
00:05:19,819 --> 00:05:21,620
但预计会逐步回落

110
00:05:21,620 --> 00:05:25,980
同时呢承认能源价格上涨可能带来额外压力

111
00:05:25,980 --> 00:05:28,939
并且反复提到中东局势的不确定性

112
00:05:28,939 --> 00:05:30,180
他也明确表示

113
00:05:30,180 --> 00:05:32,339
如果通胀没有实质性进展的话

114
00:05:32,339 --> 00:05:34,009
那么美联储不会降息

115
00:05:34,009 --> 00:05:35,230
至于加息

116
00:05:35,230 --> 00:05:37,930
它只是提到有这个选项的存在

117
00:05:37,930 --> 00:05:40,519
但并非是基准情形

118
00:05:40,519 --> 00:05:43,959
不过市场显然就只抓住了一句话

119
00:05:43,959 --> 00:05:47,298
加息的可能性已经重新摆在桌面上

120
00:05:47,298 --> 00:05:49,899
在当前能源风险散失的背景下

121
00:05:49,899 --> 00:05:54,009
这种表述就被放大解读为偏阴信号

122
00:05:54,009 --> 00:05:58,209
等于是没有给市场期待中的降息定心丸嘛

123
00:05:58,209 --> 00:06:00,769
其实我看那个发布会过程中哈

124
00:06:00,769 --> 00:06:05,079
我觉得记者们的提问就想要逼着这个宝友说出

125
00:06:05,079 --> 00:06:07,199
加息这个词的指数呢

126
00:06:07,199 --> 00:06:09,660
在他讲话期间持续走弱

127
00:06:09,660 --> 00:06:11,319
几乎股市单边下行

128
00:06:11,319 --> 00:06:13,660
说明资金开始重新定价

129
00:06:13,660 --> 00:06:16,160
通胀和利率路径的风险了

130
00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,649
从更宏观的角度来看嗯

131
00:06:19,649 --> 00:06:21,990
自中东冲突升级以来

132
00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:25,370
美国金融条件啊已经在被动收紧

133
00:06:25,370 --> 00:06:27,149
这对经济来说是压制

134
00:06:27,149 --> 00:06:29,959
但是对通胀有一定缓冲的作用

135
00:06:29,959 --> 00:06:31,319
不过对股市来说

136
00:06:31,319 --> 00:06:34,079
首先体现的还是估值压力了

137
00:06:34,079 --> 00:06:38,259
鲍威尔任内呢只剩4月份最后一场会议

138
00:06:38,259 --> 00:06:40,879
政策路径的不确定性反而在上升

139
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,439
他仍在等待参议院的确认

140
00:06:46,439 --> 00:06:49,879
也让市场呢就缺乏明确的锚定

141
00:06:49,879 --> 00:06:52,379
最后三大股指全线收跌

142
00:06:52,379 --> 00:06:53,639
除了油气板块

143
00:06:53,639 --> 00:06:55,720
其他板块全线溃败哈

144
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,399
上涨的个股寥寥无几

145
00:06:57,399 --> 00:06:59,500
这个周五是三乌日

146
00:06:59,500 --> 00:07:01,740
由于本周地缘政治恶化

147
00:07:01,740 --> 00:07:07,560
大量机构选择在FOMC这种流动性充足的时点

148
00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,389
提前完成空头头寸的展期

149
00:07:10,389 --> 00:07:13,350
而不是等到周五才集中处理

150
00:07:13,350 --> 00:07:15,740
这也放大了今天的抛压

151
00:07:15,740 --> 00:07:19,240
标普510路跌到年线附近才勉强止住

152
00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,680
并且收在日内最低点附近

153
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,899
这意味着下行动能还没有释放完毕哈

154
00:07:25,899 --> 00:07:29,040
自2月28号中东冲突爆发以来

155
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:33,060
市场始终无法走出连续三天上涨的节奏

156
00:07:33,060 --> 00:07:35,699
基本都是反弹两天就再度转跌

157
00:07:35,699 --> 00:07:38,620
也说明趋势呢仍然偏弱

158
00:07:38,620 --> 00:07:40,660
偏空波动率指数为X

159
00:07:40,660 --> 00:07:43,519
今天收在25日K收出一根中阳线

160
00:07:43,519 --> 00:07:48,139
这种形态说明恐慌还在释放的过程中

161
00:07:48,139 --> 00:07:50,000
尚未出现衰竭

162
00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,240
市场的阶段性底部呢

163
00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:57,410
往往要伴随着VIX的一根嗯长上影线冲高回落

164
00:07:57,410 --> 00:08:00,610
或者是一根长黑棍高开低走

165
00:08:00,610 --> 00:08:03,490
而目前还没有出现这种信号

166
00:08:03,490 --> 00:08:08,149
因此这条年限还不是这个标普500

167
00:08:08,149 --> 00:08:09,709
本轮下跌的终点

168
00:08:09,709 --> 00:08:12,170
而是清算的开始

169
00:08:12,170 --> 00:08:16,319
前几天小摩不是一直说市场还没有出清完毕嘛

170
00:08:16,319 --> 00:08:18,478
现在就要开始大清算了哈

171
00:08:18,478 --> 00:08:21,298
指数将惯性跌破年线

172
00:08:21,298 --> 00:08:23,000
继续向下探底

173
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:27,319
下方6600和6500~6550室

174
00:08:27,319 --> 00:08:28,680
主要支撑区域

175
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:29,990
跌到这儿呢

176
00:08:29,990 --> 00:08:33,370
嗯就可以尝试短线博反弹

177
00:08:33,370 --> 00:08:37,419
由于这个市场里空头头寸非常的沉重

178
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,600
回补力度可能会推动指数在周五

179
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,529
或者在下周一或下周二呃

180
00:08:44,529 --> 00:08:47,070
反抽到6710袋

181
00:08:47,070 --> 00:08:50,559
至少会将今天这个跳空低开

182
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,919
留下来的小缺口给回补掉

183
00:08:52,919 --> 00:08:56,539
这一切都是技术性的这一个推演哈

184
00:08:56,539 --> 00:08:58,909
无论这基本面怎么变化

185
00:08:58,909 --> 00:09:02,289
我觉得这个缺口都是会很快被回补掉的

186
00:09:02,289 --> 00:09:06,039
黄金在地缘政治冲击市场波动加剧

187
00:09:06,039 --> 00:09:07,539
油价飙升的背景之下

188
00:09:07,539 --> 00:09:09,059
不仅没有持续走强

189
00:09:09,059 --> 00:09:11,950
反而跌破了5000美元呀死关口

190
00:09:11,950 --> 00:09:13,830
自伊朗战争爆发以来

191
00:09:13,830 --> 00:09:16,830
黄金与原有的价格走势就截然相反

192
00:09:16,830 --> 00:09:18,440
这显然和很多人心中

193
00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,279
黄金等于绝对避险资产的认知产生了冲突

194
00:09:22,279 --> 00:09:24,679
但是如果把时间拉长来看

195
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,730
这种情况并不罕见

196
00:09:26,730 --> 00:09:29,370
黄金确实会在冲突初期

197
00:09:29,370 --> 00:09:32,019
因为避险情绪快速拉升呃

198
00:09:32,019 --> 00:09:34,379
但是这种上涨更多是情绪驱动

199
00:09:34,379 --> 00:09:36,870
而不是持续性的资金配置

200
00:09:36,870 --> 00:09:41,029
一旦市场从恐慌模式切换到定价模式的话

201
00:09:41,029 --> 00:09:44,559
那资金往往就会转向另外两类资产

202
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,659
一类呢使流动性更强

203
00:09:46,659 --> 00:09:48,480
便于调仓的资产

204
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:50,960
另一类呢则是与冲突直接相关

205
00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,000
而且能够从中受益的标的

206
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,059
比如能源原油是吧

207
00:09:55,059 --> 00:09:56,299
在这个过程中

208
00:09:56,299 --> 00:09:58,820
黄金反而容易被边缘化

209
00:09:58,820 --> 00:10:00,220
价格随之回落

210
00:10:00,220 --> 00:10:03,470
类似的剧本在2022年已经上演过一次

211
00:10:03,470 --> 00:10:05,350
当初俄乌冲突爆发后

212
00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:07,509
黄金价格一度上涨约15%

213
00:10:07,509 --> 00:10:11,480
但是随后随着美联储进入激进加息周期

214
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:12,820
实际利率抬升

215
00:10:12,820 --> 00:10:14,980
黄金价格又回吐了涨幅

216
00:10:14,980 --> 00:10:17,820
累计回撤大约15%到18%

217
00:10:17,820 --> 00:10:20,940
这背后反映的核心逻辑其实很简单

218
00:10:20,940 --> 00:10:23,360
环境呢不仅是避险资产

219
00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,860
更是对利率和流动性极其敏感的资产

220
00:10:26,860 --> 00:10:30,950
当地缘风险与货币政策方向发生冲突的时候

221
00:10:30,950 --> 00:10:33,970
后者往往会占据优势啊

222
00:10:33,970 --> 00:10:37,470
这也是为什么近期市场的重新评估

223
00:10:37,470 --> 00:10:39,139
黄金定价逻辑

224
00:10:39,139 --> 00:10:40,580
汇丰银行表示

225
00:10:40,580 --> 00:10:43,080
如果市场此前预期的降息

226
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,990
在这个2026年无法兑现的话

227
00:10:45,990 --> 00:10:49,899
那黄金的上涨趋势可能就会被打断

228
00:10:49,899 --> 00:10:50,799
换句话说

229
00:10:50,799 --> 00:10:52,299
当前黄金价格中

230
00:10:52,299 --> 00:10:55,500
其实已经隐含了一部分未来宽松的预期哈

231
00:10:55,500 --> 00:10:57,019
一旦这个前提动摇的话

232
00:10:57,019 --> 00:10:59,370
那估值就需要重新调整

233
00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:00,809
从资金面来看呢

234
00:11:00,809 --> 00:11:02,789
还有一个值得警惕的变化

235
00:11:02,789 --> 00:11:06,339
黄金与股票之间的相关性正在上升

236
00:11:06,339 --> 00:11:07,678
在传统认知中

237
00:11:07,678 --> 00:11:09,899
两者往往呈现对称关系

238
00:11:09,899 --> 00:11:13,418
但是在流动性趋紧或者波动加剧的阶段

239
00:11:13,418 --> 00:11:15,489
也就是眼下这个阶段啊

240
00:11:15,489 --> 00:11:17,328
情况就会发生反转

241
00:11:17,328 --> 00:11:19,668
但投资者需要筹集现金

242
00:11:19,668 --> 00:11:22,188
或者为股票投资做对冲的时候呢

243
00:11:22,188 --> 00:11:24,120
黄金反而会被卖出

244
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,879
变成被动提供流动性的工具

245
00:11:26,879 --> 00:11:30,700
这就意味着在所谓全面风险释放的环境中

246
00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:33,820
就是在这个眼下要大清算的这个环境下

247
00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:37,120
黄金并不一定是那个最安全的港湾

248
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,799
反而会暴露出一定的贝塔风险

249
00:11:39,799 --> 00:11:43,190
其实现在最安全的还是美元现金哈

250
00:11:43,190 --> 00:11:45,309
所以呢这一轮环境的走弱

251
00:11:45,309 --> 00:11:48,330
并不只是简单的避险失效

252
00:11:48,330 --> 00:11:50,568
更像是市场来重新定价

253
00:11:50,568 --> 00:11:52,428
当流动性利率入境

254
00:11:52,428 --> 00:11:55,308
以及资金调仓需求同时作用的时候

255
00:11:55,308 --> 00:11:58,899
环境的表现未必会按照传统的剧本来走

256
00:11:58,899 --> 00:11:59,700
个股方面

257
00:11:59,700 --> 00:12:01,700
美观科技盘后公布了财报

258
00:12:01,700 --> 00:12:04,470
上一次财报惊艳整个华尔街

259
00:12:04,470 --> 00:12:06,149
甚至被华尔街盛赞为

260
00:12:06,149 --> 00:12:08,828
美国芯片史上最大惊喜之一

261
00:12:08,828 --> 00:12:12,708
这一次财报数据也是全面超出市场预期

262
00:12:12,708 --> 00:12:15,980
但是股价盘后呢却不温不火嗯

263
00:12:15,980 --> 00:12:18,179
不知道是被这个大盘所影响呢

264
00:12:18,179 --> 00:12:20,700
还是股价近期已经涨很多

265
00:12:20,700 --> 00:12:21,500
定价了

266
00:12:21,500 --> 00:12:22,909
财报利好嗯

267
00:12:22,909 --> 00:12:25,950
具体还是得看看明天盘中走势哈

268
00:12:25,950 --> 00:12:29,389
不过末日多空期权估计要被双杀了

269
00:12:29,389 --> 00:12:32,429
现在公司市值已经突破了5000亿美元

270
00:12:32,429 --> 00:12:34,230
正式跻身标普500指数

271
00:12:34,230 --> 00:12:36,599
前16大市值巨头之列了

272
00:12:36,599 --> 00:12:39,198
光通信板块也逆势走高

273
00:12:39,198 --> 00:12:42,059
在整体市场偏犹豫的背景之下

274
00:12:42,059 --> 00:12:44,120
走出了独立行情

275
00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,570
A aoi l i t e

276
00:12:46,570 --> 00:12:48,009
还有COHR

277
00:12:48,009 --> 00:12:51,409
这几家公司在洛杉矶举行的宽通信大会上

278
00:12:51,409 --> 00:12:53,179
发布最新产品

279
00:12:53,179 --> 00:12:55,019
而且都重点强调

280
00:12:55,019 --> 00:12:57,899
AI基础设施的需求还在持续加速

281
00:12:57,899 --> 00:12:59,259
并没有出现失常

282
00:12:59,259 --> 00:13:01,730
此前所担心的降温迹象

283
00:13:01,730 --> 00:13:04,909
尤其是LITE再次强调

284
00:13:04,909 --> 00:13:08,149
它的产能在2027年前呃

285
00:13:08,149 --> 00:13:10,370
基本已经被预定完毕

286
00:13:10,370 --> 00:13:13,419
嗯这不仅说明需求端依然强

287
00:13:13,419 --> 00:13:17,519
更重要的是供给端在短期内难以迅速扩张

288
00:13:17,519 --> 00:13:21,159
整个行业依然处在一种供不应求的状态之中

289
00:13:21,159 --> 00:13:24,750
这种结构对于价格和利润率都是天然的支撑

290
00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:27,789
也解释了为什么资金在当前阶段哈

291
00:13:27,789 --> 00:13:29,429
就这么动荡的情况之下

292
00:13:29,429 --> 00:13:32,120
依然愿意反复回流这个板块

293
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,519
现在AI板块内部已经出现明显的分化

294
00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:37,480
大家应该也都感觉到

295
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,139
看到大票箱

296
00:13:39,139 --> 00:13:40,080
英伟达

297
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,179
微软MEA那些都开始高位震荡

298
00:13:43,179 --> 00:13:48,850
而资金呢再往次级细分赛道挖掘贯通性和存储

299
00:13:48,850 --> 00:13:51,299
就是典型的承接方向之一

300
00:13:51,299 --> 00:13:53,039
这种主线不变

301
00:13:53,039 --> 00:13:54,659
标的切换的结构

302
00:13:54,659 --> 00:13:58,919
其实就是典型的趋势中后段特征嗯

303
00:13:58,919 --> 00:13:59,620
技术面上

304
00:13:59,620 --> 00:14:02,080
这类个股大多沿着短期均线

305
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,399
就5日十日20日均线震荡上行

306
00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:08,399
有回踩就会有承接趋势

307
00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:09,799
看起来非常的强势

308
00:14:09,799 --> 00:14:10,879
但是要注意一点

309
00:14:10,879 --> 00:14:13,340
就是当前位置已经不再是低位

310
00:14:13,340 --> 00:14:16,029
而是进入了这个加速阶段

311
00:14:16,029 --> 00:14:19,129
一旦哪天出现放量长上影线

312
00:14:19,129 --> 00:14:21,309
或者跌破5日与10日均线的话

313
00:14:21,309 --> 00:14:23,639
那很容易就演变成为嗯

314
00:14:23,639 --> 00:14:26,759
高位资金兑现逻辑没有问题哈

315
00:14:26,759 --> 00:14:28,678
但是位置已经不低了

316
00:14:28,678 --> 00:14:32,110
接下来拼的就是谁先讲不通故事

317
00:14:32,110 --> 00:14:34,769
梅西百货股价日内冲高回落

318
00:14:34,769 --> 00:14:36,110
最高涨超9%

319
00:14:36,110 --> 00:14:38,279
尾盘呢回吐了一半涨幅

320
00:14:38,279 --> 00:14:41,500
公司Q4营收和利润都高于市场预期

321
00:14:41,500 --> 00:14:44,019
但是新财年指引低于预期

322
00:14:44,019 --> 00:14:47,419
企业在展望未来的时候明显变得更加谨慎

323
00:14:47,419 --> 00:14:49,860
公司在表述中已经明确提到

324
00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:51,980
在评估消费者行为的时候

325
00:14:51,980 --> 00:14:53,600
开始将中东局势

326
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,919
关税变化以及通胀不确定性纳入考量范围

327
00:14:57,919 --> 00:14:59,500
这种业绩不错

328
00:14:59,500 --> 00:15:01,980
但是指引偏弱的情况呢

329
00:15:01,980 --> 00:15:05,700
往往只能吸引短线交易资金进行博弈

330
00:15:05,700 --> 00:15:10,179
难以让中长期资金形成持续加仓的动力

331
00:15:10,179 --> 00:15:11,000
技术上

332
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,659
这类反弹如果缺乏后续量能配合

333
00:15:13,659 --> 00:15:16,909
很容易就演变为利好兑现后的震荡回落

334
00:15:16,909 --> 00:15:20,909
本质上哈反映的是市场对未来预期的分歧

335
00:15:20,909 --> 00:15:23,250
而不是对当下基本原理的否定

336
00:15:23,250 --> 00:15:26,480
所以股价日K呢就留下了一条长三引线

337
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,179
周期板块中的化肥龙头

338
00:15:29,179 --> 00:15:32,480
cf则是另一种更典型的预期

339
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,279
打满之后的调整

340
00:15:34,279 --> 00:15:37,000
瑞汇分析师对该股转为看空

341
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,139
认为他的展示已经足够了

342
00:15:39,139 --> 00:15:41,129
自伊朗冲突爆发以来

343
00:15:41,129 --> 00:15:42,769
市场迅速意识到

344
00:15:42,769 --> 00:15:46,220
中东地区在全球化肥供应中的重要性

345
00:15:46,220 --> 00:15:49,960
约40%的出口占比甚至高于原油

346
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,840
这导致尿素等化肥价格的上涨速度

347
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,419
一度超过了油价

348
00:15:55,419 --> 00:15:57,799
在这种供给冲击预期下

349
00:15:57,799 --> 00:15:59,200
cf股价一路飙升

350
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,899
3月份累涨了27.3%

351
00:16:01,899 --> 00:16:05,619
成为本月标普500中涨幅最大的股票之一

352
00:16:05,619 --> 00:16:07,719
当所有资金都已经认可

353
00:16:07,719 --> 00:16:09,578
并且参与这个逻辑的时候

354
00:16:09,578 --> 00:16:12,200
交易本身就进入了后半段

355
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,659
分析师这个时候转向看空呢

356
00:16:14,659 --> 00:16:16,580
更像是在提醒市场

357
00:16:16,580 --> 00:16:20,860
就是这一波上涨所对应的预期已经被充分定价

358
00:16:20,860 --> 00:16:22,399
从资金结构来看

359
00:16:22,399 --> 00:16:25,059
这类标的往往属于事件驱动

360
00:16:25,059 --> 00:16:27,490
叠加趋势跟随的模式

361
00:16:27,490 --> 00:16:29,470
一旦出现高位滞涨

362
00:16:29,470 --> 00:16:32,370
或者低一根明显的放量阴线哈

363
00:16:32,370 --> 00:16:35,090
那就容易触发集中获利了结

364
00:16:35,090 --> 00:16:37,370
进而引发趋势反转

365
00:16:37,370 --> 00:16:38,289
更重要的是

366
00:16:38,289 --> 00:16:38,649
Cf

367
00:16:38,649 --> 00:16:42,169
当前它已经不只是一个公司层面的交

368
00:16:42,169 --> 00:16:43,009
易标的了哈

369
00:16:43,009 --> 00:16:47,730
而是被当做中东冲突和大宗商品涨价的一个

370
00:16:47,730 --> 00:16:49,750
宏观载体来交易

371
00:16:49,750 --> 00:16:53,929
一旦市场对冲突持续性的判断发生变化

372
00:16:53,929 --> 00:16:57,779
那价格回撤的速度往往也会同样的非常迅速

373
00:16:57,779 --> 00:17:00,039
把以上这几个板块放在一起看

374
00:17:00,039 --> 00:17:04,219
其实可以更清楚地理解当前市场的状态

375
00:17:04,219 --> 00:17:09,130
就是AI相关领域呢依然在讲长期成长逻辑

376
00:17:09,130 --> 00:17:13,839
资金也愿意继续围绕产业链做深度挖掘

377
00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:17,240
消费板块则开始对未来产生犹豫了哈

378
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,279
企业自身已经在提前调整预期了

379
00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:25,039
而周期板块中的部分标的则已经从逻辑启动

380
00:17:25,039 --> 00:17:27,630
走到了预期兑现阶段

381
00:17:27,630 --> 00:17:31,789
不同板块所处的周期位置也并不一致的

382
00:17:31,789 --> 00:17:33,130
在这样的环境下

383
00:17:33,130 --> 00:17:35,819
行情呢不再有单一逻机驱动

384
00:17:35,819 --> 00:17:38,680
底层资金正在不断的做结构性切换

385
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,640
真正决定下一步方向的

386
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,000
往往不是某一个利好或利空

387
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,660
而是哪一边的资金率先失去耐心行

388
00:17:46,660 --> 00:17:48,619
今天我们就说到这里

389
00:17:48,619 --> 00:17:50,220
那我们明天见拜拜

共 4 条，按点赞数排序。

共 1 条，按视频时间排序。