MU还能翻100%吗？【2026-05-26】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月26号星期二

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因为星期一休市

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本周只有四个交易日

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标普指数今天上涨45.65点

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涨幅0.6%

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一指数今天又刷新高点

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创新高之后意味着有更多的新高

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目前大盘趋势是上涨的

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似乎也没有看空的理由

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨312.21点

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涨幅1.19%

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纳指今天是三个指数中最强科技板块

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尤其是硬件发力带动了指数

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目前指数涨势顺畅

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可能会惯性继续上涨

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今天最炸裂的消息是美光科技高位继续大涨

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总市值突破1万亿

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今天美光开盘就一路飙升

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盘中暴涨超过20%

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股价直接站上了900美元的高位

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最关键的是

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它的总市值

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在今天历史性的突破了1万亿美元大关

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今年以来

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美光的累计涨幅已经达到了惊人的

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217%

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甚至连川普前几天在萨福恩的集会上啊

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都公开点名夸奖说

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美光真的很棒

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市场敏感发现期权市场提前异动

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在川普集会讲话之前

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期权市场集中买入美光科技的看涨期权

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从750~1400的行权价

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都有不同程度的买入大单

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川普点名表扬美光

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使股价如火上浇油

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另一个刺激股价继续大涨的消息是

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瑞银分析师

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一口气把美光的股价上涨目标翻了两倍

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直指当前价格的翻倍行情

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华尔街大机构唱多股价

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瑞银UBS的明星分析师蒂莫西阿库里

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把美光科技12个月目标价

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从之前的535美元

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上调到了1625美元

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提高了两倍

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市值目标是1.8万亿

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这个目标价是上周末美光科技收盘价的翻倍

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也就是说

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目前华尔街大行对美光的一年目标价是给出了

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百分之百上涨的判断

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有一个问题值得思考

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那就是一个周期性行业

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为什么估值却能给出更高呢

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存储是典型的周期性行业

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产品价格有涨有跌

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涨的时候赚很多钱

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跌的时候可能公司要亏损

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周期性行业应该在最繁荣的时候卖出

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以避免衰退周期的亏损

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但是UBS的逻辑不太一样

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它大幅上调了美光科技未来3年的每股收益

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认为2027年

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每股收益将高达155美元

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2028年的EPS高达167美元

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即使到2029年

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行业可能会温和降温

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但还是非常赚钱

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一股能赚155

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那么即使是股价1500

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市盈率也不过十倍而已

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股价暴涨

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估值并没有暴涨

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不过155美元的EPS也太高啦

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目前已经公布的上季度财报

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美国的EPS也就12美元

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存储板块的几家公司最近产品供不应求

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所以供货时有强势地位

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为了避免未来抢不到内存

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微软谷歌亚马逊meta等云巨头

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愿意和存储公司签订长期协议

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一签就是好几年

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这样一来存储行业就锁定了订单

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不像以前那样担心周期了

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瑞银的数据揭露了目前的行业内幕

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在现在的存储行业里

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有高达60%到70%的服务器

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DDR5销量

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已经通过这种长达三到5年的长期协议

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锁定的价格和采购量

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即使是普通的DDDR行业

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也有约三成的量被提前锁死了

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长期协议抹平了存储公司业绩波动的不确定性

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提供了强劲的需求确定性

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在如此乐观的预期下

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瑞银认为

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美光科技基于15倍市盈率

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未来3年自由现金流超过4000亿美元

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股价将达到1625美元

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美光今天大涨之后

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上升趋势又非常强劲

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还会继续上涨

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华尔街1625

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最高目标对一支最终实质还是周期股来说

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可以说是充满风险和挑战的

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这年头不怕胆子大的

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胆子大的

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进厂捞一笔

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赚钱很快啊

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除了领涨的存储

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半导体板块

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今天也是大涨

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上涨的行业主要集中在硬件上面

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半导体计算机硬件机械汽车制造等都是上涨的

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今年半年都快过了

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发现今年真的是喜欢硬的

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不喜欢软的

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我倒是挺感慨的

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今年我在硬件上面的布局比重啊

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实在是太小了

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错失了非常好的行情

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今年下跌比较多的板块是能源油气

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这主要是受到时局变化的影响

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布伦特油价跌破了100

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头部形态也有可能逐渐形成

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美伊谈判到底是能不能谈

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会不会重新开火

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还非常不确定

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伊朗与星期一恢复了部分互联网连接

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伊朗革命卫队称

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过去24小时

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有25艘船只通过了霍尔木兹海峡

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14条协议

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也有传闻可能会达成

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但伊朗官方又强烈否认

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协议有可能达成

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让人看得云里雾里

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美军手痒痒的

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对霍尔木兹海峡附近的导弹发射场进行打击

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美国方面说

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这是自卫式的打击

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虽然消息面的烟雾弹很多

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但战争总的利空能量变得无关紧要

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重启战争可能会导致股市短时间内又恐慌下跌

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但改变不了美股节节高升的节奏

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反而提供了打折买入的机会

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所以股市可能更多的会反映谈判的利好

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却淡化冲突的利空

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毕竟牛市会自动筛选消息

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利空消息在牛市传播不远就会停止

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围绕伊朗战争与和平的各种方案进行权衡

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力求在60天内停止战争

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中期选举临近

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白宫急于获得一个伟大的胜利

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消息面很有可能出现改变市场方向的转机

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美股超级上涨周期

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反映的是上市公司盈利的增长

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刚才说的瑞银对美光科技的盈利预期非常夸张

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但实际上

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标普500家成份股公司

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季度盈利和收入的增长率

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是标普指数不断上涨的基本面支撑

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澳门海默资产管理公司表示

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标普500成份股公司的季度

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营收和利润增长速度加快

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在成份股中

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有95%的公司已经公布财报

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其中盈利较去年同比增长28%

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营收同比增长11.1%

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一季度财报接近尾声

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诸多企业报告了亮眼的业绩

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并给出了积极的业绩指引

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前景看好

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在奥本海默看来啊

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本轮牛市仍然具有韧性

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有望进一步上涨

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半导体板块基本上没有一只股票落单不涨的

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连我作为反向指标买入的高通都从底部翻倍了

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我在两周前有点想卖出算了

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没想到这两天继续上涨

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居然形成了强劲的上涨趋势了

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随着股价上涨

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利好消息也跟进

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彭博社报道称

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高通获得了字节跳动的AI芯片订单

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字节跳动有望成为高通AI定制芯片

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头一批客户关于高通观众的问题挺多的

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主要是想问我什么时候卖出

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我这人很奇怪啊

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盈利的时候风险偏好会提高

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更乐于赌一下

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这下涨了翻倍

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我已经不怎么想卖出了

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其实我在半导体上面的配置实在是太低了

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今年的半导体牛市就像一个大火锅

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各种好吃的

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我这就一勺子下去

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完全没吃饱

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唉早知道得拿一盆子来装

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就连诺基亚都涨了好几倍

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创了新高

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当年诺基亚手机称霸的时候

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股价还没有现在的高呢

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从手机市场衰落后

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诺基亚转向了电信基础设施

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去年诺基亚收购了一家光通信的公司

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Infinerr

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正好踩中了光通信的风口哈

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因为大家对诺基亚投了10亿美元

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用于加速5G和6G的网络软件

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英伟达还将探索在AI数据中心当中

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使用诺基亚的技术

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唉这下诺基亚摇身一变

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也成了AI概念股啦

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老树发新枝

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短线强势上涨

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以看涨为主要方向

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目前半导体甚至整个硬件板块

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传闻有一个潜在风险

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作为全球科技产业最核心的行业上游

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台积电几乎垄断了高端AI芯片

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和先进制程的代工市场

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英伟达

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苹果

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超微半导体等科技巨头

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将直接陷入无货可卖的绝境

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00:09:31,940 --> 00:09:35,019
那这个可不仅是会引发科技股和美股

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大盘的剧烈下跌

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更可能通过供应链海啸重创全球宏观经济

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台积电没有工会的张忠谋

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长期通过高额股票期权和超过行业水平的薪酬

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激励员工

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员工满意度还是比较高的

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台积电的工厂非常精密

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经不起停工

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停工的代价太高了

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以至于不可能停

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台积电的股价也是一路长牛啊

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根本没有停下来的意思

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关于微软

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我是推荐了几次的微软

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但是买入微软就没有什么行情

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现在买在微软里面算不算躲牛市呢

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看起来是的啊

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它不涨

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00:10:20,340 --> 00:10:21,360
别人大涨

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机会成本还挺高的

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资金追捧一个板块

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冷落另一个板块的情况是经常会出现的啊

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要轮到这边风景独好

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可能就要熬上一段时间

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很多人是熬不下去

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纷纷卖了去追芯片和存储的

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00:10:37,509 --> 00:10:41,049
于是我们就会看到芯片和存储继续formal

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继续大涨

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软件

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00:10:42,629 --> 00:10:45,700
因为被卖出不跌就已经很不错了

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但是股市一定是风水轮流转的

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除非这家公司不行了

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上周五还有观众问到附图能不能抄底

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附图在政策打击下暴跌

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已经连续两天大幅反弹

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公司回购了1.6亿美元的股票

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00:11:02,299 --> 00:11:04,000
股票估值也不高

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短线可能会有反弹行情

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长线受制于两年时间的客户清退

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不太容易形成顺畅的上涨

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有一条评论说

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三姑娘你啥时候卖特斯拉诶

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提前发个声明

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三姑娘今天盈利3033元

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00:11:20,809 --> 00:11:23,379
截图净值是22万

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特斯拉和谷歌小幅上涨

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高通仓位不大

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00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,250
但是涨幅相对较高

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circle大跌

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莫名其妙的川普点名表扬了美光

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但也点明了CRCL啊哈

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特斯拉的趋势到底是什么呢

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00:11:42,169 --> 00:11:44,529
我认为长线应该是牛市

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只不过阶段性波动非常大

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00:11:47,149 --> 00:11:48,730
不是一只好牛

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它能涨到500~600

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我可能会卖出一点

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不过马斯克的薪酬方案中

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对特斯拉远期市值是有规划的

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如果没有意外的话

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7.5亿市值未来是有可能的

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所以即使是做波段

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我也不会丢掉太多的底仓

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好今天的节目就分享到这里

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感谢大家收看我们下期节目再见

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拜拜

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