【视野环球财经】20260225美股 NVDA超预期不涨！CRM前瞻欠佳！IGV何时反转？交易员变脸，押注印钞机重启！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是RINO

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现在是美东时间200 2月25号

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周三晚上的7.35分

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今天的四大指数啊是全线走高

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那只是难得的领涨了一次呃

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今天呢是两个受到人工智能

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颠覆传统叙事影响比较大的板块

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科技和金融领涨啊

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另外呢机构也是出来

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赶紧上调软件相关板块的评级

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OP呢是将甲骨文的评级从表现优异上调至超越

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那么瑞银呢是将IBM的评级从卖出上调至中性

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那么今天啊整个的软件板块的表现非常不错啊

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盘中出现了大幅反弹啊

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另外IGV这边呢是出现了

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也是大于平均成交量的光头光脚的大阳线呃

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但是呢今天在盘后

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它重要的成份股CRM是发布财报啊

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表现是略微有一点点欠佳呃

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股价出现了下跌

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那咱们先来讲一下啊

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关于CRM的财报

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还有这个软件板块的反弹

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如何才能够演化成为反转呃

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然后呢后面还会讲到

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今天比较重要的英伟达的财报

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是盘后呢先涨后跌啊

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目前呢是还是不怎么动啊

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另外呢还有一个非常重要的市场压注

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对于利率的情况

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而是出现了反转

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一会给大家讲一讲

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以及他们背后的压注逻辑

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好我们首先来看一下关于CRM的财报啊

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和大家展示一下他的财报细节

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CRM呢是第四财季的财报

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调整后的每股收益是3.81

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营收是112亿

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超出预期的3.05

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营收111.9亿

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另外呢sales force的首席执行官在财报会上表示

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由于市场对于智能代理

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人工智能的需求不断增长

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公司预计

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2030财年的营收将达到630亿

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这个数字是高于公司在10月份

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投资者日上设定的600亿的目标

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另外呢公司通过他的agent force平台

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正在应对AI代理产生的问题

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呃所以呢这个领域呢业务啊

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它是它的一个增长重点

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那么这个业务呢

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四季度的年度经常性收入达到了8亿美元

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同比增长169%

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上个季度呢

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公司报告平台的经常性的收入是5.4亿

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较上年同期增长330%呃

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但是由于这个agent force现在带来的营收占比啊

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总呃在他的整的营收占比里边还比较小啊

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后面如果这一块能追上啊

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可以比较有效的打消大家

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对于其他的AI的一些冲击

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另外呢他们说啊

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使其成为智能企业的操作系统

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将呃和人和智能体

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聚集在一个值得信赖的平台上

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智能越深入发展到工作发生的地方

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那么公司的价值就越高

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呃这一份看上去还不错的一个前瞻啊

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指的是远期看上去不错

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但如果我看到近期的就是眼前的事儿呢

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这个前瞻呢就略微差了一点点

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预计第一季度调整后的每股收益

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是3.11到3.13之间

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高于华尔街普遍预期的3.01

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这个不错啊

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但是一季度的营收是在110.3亿到

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110.8亿之间

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那么这个呢是也高于华尔街的预期呃

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但是整个的二七财年是有一点点小问题

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二七财年预计在他就是截止到27年1月份啊

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因为他的财年截止是1月份

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预计二七财年营收在458亿到

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462亿美元之间呃

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这个比这个刚刚过去的这个财年呢

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是增长了10%到11%啊

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但是他这个峰值与分析师预测的

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461亿相比略显不足啊

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其实呢这个少的也不多对吧

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就少了几亿啊

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但市场呢呃看到他在近期这个财年

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没有去上调前瞻

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那么就没有打消一个担忧

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什么担忧呢

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就是之前财报提到的增速的明显的放缓

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好我们来看一下它的数据就知道

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额首先呢他二七财年的这个增速啊

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就是截止到1月份是10%啊

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作为一家呃这个软件公司来讲啊

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这个属于呃以前的增速是比较快的

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那么现在呢增速掉到了一个低个位数啊

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这个显然呢对于市场来讲是不是很满意的

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市场还是希望他能够继续上调啊

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但在最近的这个财年没有上调

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后面两年的数据呢

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我会需要在更新完了以后

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给大家再重新去进行展示

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那么额按照目前的情况呢

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还是基于20~30倍

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实际上它最早可以到25~35倍啊

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已经是下调过

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现在继续下调

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因为这个增速看起来还没有恢复

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所以有可能还有潜在的下调

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但咱们呢暂时还是以比较合理的软件的

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大概的一个呃波动区间去给它进行一个参考

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那么他27年1月的前瞻

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就应该是在259到389

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中卫324

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现在在190块钱的价格

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很明显是一个低估啊

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但是我们也讲过软件板块很多股票都低估了

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但低估呃

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这一轮的这个杀跌不是基本面导致的啊

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不是说纯基本面业绩上告诉你

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他确实走差了

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被AI抢走了

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业务还没有是吧

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只是因为AI引起了基本面叙事的担忧

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然后造成了流动性的踩踏

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流动性不断的卖啊

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不管你基本面怎么样

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不断的降杠杆啊

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为了怕自己产生其他的呃

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比如说像爆仓

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或者说像利率的这个呃

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这个信贷的这个无法偿还等问题啊

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主要是来自于私募行业好

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那么这个价格呢现在还是我们把它尽管下跌啊

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跌到了182呃

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往下方呢就是两个强支撑

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180也没有跌破

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实际上今天是突破了191

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是已经又突破了一个支撑

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所以这个回撤呢

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暂时就看成一个小小的一个震荡回撤

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并没有再次掉头走空

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但是这一轮从昨天到今天

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软件股连续两天的上涨

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我们都应该把它看成是反弹来对待啊

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反弹来对待整个的软件股

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如何从反弹走向真正的企稳

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直到最终的反转

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那么应该怎么去看呢

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我们还是应该看软件板块的ETF

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IGV和软件板块的龙头微软IGV

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这边呢今天也是连续第二天的反弹啊

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成交量也比较的大

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呃请注意我的用词用的都是反弹啊

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叫反弹

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并没有说它反转了

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现在的反弹呢是因为呃这个担忧

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在这个ANTHROPIC这边呃

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发布了和软件公司的合作消息之后啊

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不是颠覆性的消息之后

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市场呢是进行了比较多的这种呃买盘的呃

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这个这个冲锋

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再加上之前的做空的一些空头平仓

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所以造成了现在的这个反弹

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那么这个反弹想要演化成反转

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其实IGV还离得比较的远啊

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它目前市价呢在81块八过去之后呢

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也其实只是暂时性的一个企稳

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真正的想要形成反转

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走大幅上行趋势要过85块七

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也就是说呢差不多不到十个点啊

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IGV这边呢大概还要走大概六个点到七个点

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往上再走六七个点

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差不多呢就能形成反转

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那这一轮后面的软件股

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它的春天就来了

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或者呢我们可以看另外一个领头羊

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就是微软的价格走势

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呃微软的价格走势呢是要突破430块钱

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它才能够形成技术性的结构性的反转

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才能够再次走上行

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市场也不会担忧

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那么这种情况就是反弹到390

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17~430之间

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还是要注意

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随时有没有可能再次掉头向下啊

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这个是一个我们说观察的一个核心位置

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当然很多朋友说

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那我作为长线来讲

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我觉得400块钱

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300多块钱的微软很便宜

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如果你不在乎短期振幅的

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那当然很便宜

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当然可以去这个长线布局

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已经有仓位的朋友呢

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其实两种选择

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第一种你要是寻求特别稳妥的

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就是过了430之后啊

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你把仓位再加上没问题

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还有一种呢就是往下到375以下

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这两个强支撑出现了止跌形态

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再去加也没问题

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现在其实就是一个中间价格啊

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属于这个反弹的悬空地带

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这种地带呢呃就是瓜不保熟啊

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有可能会随时会掉头啊

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就要看大盘的情况啊

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不过大盘总体上还不错啊

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00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,379
大盘因为向上三呃

218
00:09:24,379 --> 00:09:28,389
四这个到了这个6900点往上啊

219
00:09:28,389 --> 00:09:29,428
就是奔着7000去了

220
00:09:29,428 --> 00:09:29,989
现在啊

221
00:09:29,989 --> 00:09:32,989
所以呢大盘的这个上涨的动量呢

222
00:09:32,989 --> 00:09:34,230
已经开始在积累

223
00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:34,549
呃

224
00:09:34,549 --> 00:09:36,350
另外呢就是我们讲到的CTA

225
00:09:36,350 --> 00:09:39,158
其实是已经在横盘和上涨中

226
00:09:39,158 --> 00:09:41,239
开始贡献买盘的力量啊

227
00:09:41,239 --> 00:09:41,839
就是买盘的力量

228
00:09:41,839 --> 00:09:43,038
他们至少不砸嘛

229
00:09:43,038 --> 00:09:44,200
就是一个好事啊

230
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:46,000
所以大盘如果带着走一走

231
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,409
那么被动性的资金再进来补一补

232
00:09:48,409 --> 00:09:51,450
看看微软能不能通过这一波能够回去啊

233
00:09:51,450 --> 00:09:54,220
回去了以后基本上IGV肯定也回去了啊

234
00:09:54,220 --> 00:09:54,779
回去了以后

235
00:09:54,779 --> 00:09:56,399
整个软件板块我们可以看到

236
00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:58,700
将会出现更大幅度的反弹啊

237
00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:01,220
更大幅度的上涨好

238
00:10:01,220 --> 00:10:03,139
当然没过去之前呢反弹对待啊

239
00:10:03,139 --> 00:10:07,110
大家随时自己跟踪一下盘面好

240
00:10:07,110 --> 00:10:10,690
这个呢是呃这个几个软件股

241
00:10:10,690 --> 00:10:15,309
接下来我们讲一下大家比较关心的英伟达啊

242
00:10:15,309 --> 00:10:18,409
我们首先看一下英伟达的盘后走势啊

243
00:10:18,409 --> 00:10:20,909
盘后呢是财报发布之后

244
00:10:20,909 --> 00:10:23,299
最高涨了3.82%

245
00:10:23,299 --> 00:10:25,259
那么盘后来的跌的时候

246
00:10:25,259 --> 00:10:26,940
最多跌到了1.3%啊

247
00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:28,820
现在截止到我录节目的时候呢

248
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:31,629
差不多是还是一个平盘呃

249
00:10:31,629 --> 00:10:33,668
感觉这个财报昨天我们说啊

250
00:10:33,668 --> 00:10:36,668
它的财报预计可能会波动不算太大啊

251
00:10:36,668 --> 00:10:38,299
但也没有想到这么小啊

252
00:10:38,299 --> 00:10:39,659
你这也太小了

253
00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:40,840
盘中涨了1.4

254
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,929
盘后呢上下来甩了一下呃

255
00:10:43,929 --> 00:10:45,389
这个确实太小了啊

256
00:10:45,389 --> 00:10:48,730
好我们还是看一下他的财报到底有什么利好

257
00:10:48,730 --> 00:10:51,009
以及有什么问题

258
00:10:53,179 --> 00:10:55,220
英伟达也是第四财季的财报啊

259
00:10:56,259 --> 00:10:59,509
他也是1月份的财年截止呃

260
00:10:59,509 --> 00:11:00,850
财报之前呢

261
00:11:00,850 --> 00:11:06,470
其实市场的基本的预期啊是它会超出预期啊

262
00:11:06,470 --> 00:11:10,389
呃另外呢比较高看的分析师的看法是

263
00:11:10,389 --> 00:11:14,889
他至少要比共识的那个中值要高出21

264
00:11:14,889 --> 00:11:18,629
那么今天他确实是得到了一份远超预期

265
00:11:18,629 --> 00:11:20,000
中值的业绩报告

266
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,620
整个的四季度营收超了22亿

267
00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:24,740
业绩指引超了终止50亿

268
00:11:24,740 --> 00:11:26,000
绝对没问题啊

269
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:27,190
一点毛病都没有

270
00:11:27,190 --> 00:11:30,250
那么调整后的每股收益呢是1.62

271
00:11:30,250 --> 00:11:32,480
高于预期的1.53

272
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,000
营收创历史新高

273
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,860
达到了681.3亿

274
00:11:35,860 --> 00:11:38,120
同比增长73%

275
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,649
那么之前预期的是659.1到呃

276
00:11:41,649 --> 00:11:42,649
659.1亿啊

277
00:11:42,649 --> 00:11:44,230
是高出了22亿

278
00:11:44,230 --> 00:11:46,690
好看一下细分业务

279
00:11:47,980 --> 00:11:51,059
数据中心的营收是623.1亿

280
00:11:51,059 --> 00:11:52,740
同比增长75%

281
00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,750
远超预期的603.6亿

282
00:11:56,429 --> 00:11:59,409
网络业务的收入是109.8亿

283
00:11:59,409 --> 00:12:01,830
高于去年同期的30.2亿

284
00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:05,315
那么也高于之前预期的90.2亿

285
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:07,399
游戏收入

286
00:12:07,399 --> 00:12:08,320
我标红的啊

287
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:09,500
这个是不及预期的

288
00:12:09,500 --> 00:12:11,220
是37.3亿

289
00:12:11,220 --> 00:12:12,879
同比增长49%

290
00:12:12,879 --> 00:12:15,250
低于预期的40.1亿

291
00:12:16,500 --> 00:12:18,379
专业可视化是13亿

292
00:12:18,379 --> 00:12:20,779
高于去年同期的5.11亿

293
00:12:20,779 --> 00:12:24,230
也高于之前预期的7.707亿

294
00:12:24,230 --> 00:12:27,450
那么还有一个是汽车业务也是不及预期

295
00:12:27,450 --> 00:12:29,169
是6.04

296
00:12:29,169 --> 00:12:30,649
同比增长6%

297
00:12:30,649 --> 00:12:33,899
低于预期的6.4321

298
00:12:33,899 --> 00:12:36,379
另外呢OEM这边呢也是不及预期啊

299
00:12:36,379 --> 00:12:38,580
这个业务占比比较小额

300
00:12:38,580 --> 00:12:39,379
1.61亿

301
00:12:39,379 --> 00:12:40,620
同比增长28%

302
00:12:40,620 --> 00:12:43,250
低于预期的1.794亿

303
00:12:43,929 --> 00:12:46,409
调整后的毛利率呢是75.2

304
00:12:46,409 --> 00:12:47,330
这个是不错的

305
00:12:47,330 --> 00:12:49,289
高于75的预期

306
00:12:49,289 --> 00:12:53,809
也超过了74.7的这个呃买方预期

307
00:12:53,809 --> 00:12:55,230
那么自由现金流呢

308
00:12:55,230 --> 00:12:58,799
是高达了349亿美元啊

309
00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:02,940
是去年同期155.2亿的两倍多啊

310
00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:04,539
这个指的是这个季度啊

311
00:13:04,539 --> 00:13:07,580
就产生了349亿的自由现金流

312
00:13:07,580 --> 00:13:09,719
非常有钱好

313
00:13:09,719 --> 00:13:14,379
另外呢我们来看一下他的前瞻到底给的怎么样

314
00:13:16,919 --> 00:13:20,080
下个季度预计营收是764.4

315
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,029
到795.6亿

316
00:13:22,029 --> 00:13:25,370
其中呢780亿美元的中值

317
00:13:25,370 --> 00:13:27,830
比之前预计的727.8亿

318
00:13:27,830 --> 00:13:29,029
高出了50多亿啊

319
00:13:29,029 --> 00:13:29,849
非常不错

320
00:13:29,849 --> 00:13:34,009
也高于买方预期的740~750

321
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,360
预计调整后的毛利率是74.5

322
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:38,659
到75.5

323
00:13:38,659 --> 00:13:40,879
与买方预期的75%相符

324
00:13:40,879 --> 00:13:43,690
高于卖方的74.7

325
00:13:44,769 --> 00:13:47,750
预计调整后的运营支出是75亿

326
00:13:47,750 --> 00:13:50,629
之前预计的是53.5亿

327
00:13:50,629 --> 00:13:53,955
那么这个支出相当于是变大了一些

328
00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:56,440
2027财年全年啊

329
00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,360
JAP和非JAP的税率

330
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,669
预计在17~19之间呃

331
00:14:01,669 --> 00:14:04,850
还有一项呢是和中国业务相关呃

332
00:14:04,850 --> 00:14:05,889
值得注意的是呢

333
00:14:05,889 --> 00:14:07,470
英伟达的业绩指引

334
00:14:07,470 --> 00:14:11,009
并未包含任何中国数据中心的收入

335
00:14:11,009 --> 00:14:12,610
那么财报中是这么说的啊

336
00:14:12,610 --> 00:14:15,009
说2026年的2月

337
00:14:15,009 --> 00:14:17,188
美国政府授予我们一项许可

338
00:14:17,188 --> 00:14:21,950
允许我们向中国特定客户少量出口H200

339
00:14:21,950 --> 00:14:23,169
那么迄今为止呢

340
00:14:23,169 --> 00:14:26,110
我们还没有通过H200许可项目

341
00:14:26,110 --> 00:14:27,549
获得任何的收入

342
00:14:27,549 --> 00:14:32,070
也尚不清楚是否会有进口被允许到中国市场啊

343
00:14:32,070 --> 00:14:33,379
就是中国那边还没批

344
00:14:33,379 --> 00:14:34,820
那么这个许可呢

345
00:14:34,820 --> 00:14:37,799
要求H200产品在发货给客户之前

346
00:14:37,799 --> 00:14:40,159
必须在美国接受检查

347
00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:43,559
那么公司在刚才上面谈到的这么多的前瞻业绩

348
00:14:43,559 --> 00:14:46,690
里边都不包含对于中国的销售额

349
00:14:46,690 --> 00:14:49,289
所以呢正如我们之前一直在说的

350
00:14:49,289 --> 00:14:50,850
有那是锦上添花

351
00:14:50,850 --> 00:14:52,370
那么没有像中国的销售

352
00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:54,735
那现在的业绩也是不错的

353
00:14:56,399 --> 00:15:00,409
好接下来我们想说一下它的股价啊

354
00:15:00,970 --> 00:15:04,759
呃它的股价呢我们还是基于30~40倍

355
00:15:04,759 --> 00:15:05,100
呃

356
00:15:05,100 --> 00:15:08,500
目前的业绩呢按照27年1月

357
00:15:08,500 --> 00:15:10,600
就是现在正在进行的财年

358
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,159
应该是222~296

359
00:15:13,159 --> 00:15:15,340
那么中位是259

360
00:15:15,340 --> 00:15:17,279
明显是一个低估

361
00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:20,279
而且呢这个为什么到30~40倍这么高呢

362
00:15:20,279 --> 00:15:24,460
是因为基于58%的预期EPS的增长啊

363
00:15:24,460 --> 00:15:26,240
这是一个非常高的增长

364
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,200
所以呢呃所以给到这个并不贵啊

365
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,289
也不夸张好

366
00:15:31,289 --> 00:15:34,990
但是呢今天的股价呢还是确实是没有动啊

367
00:15:34,990 --> 00:15:36,879
技术面给大家更新一下

368
00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:40,360
187~190新的强支撑啊

369
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,529
在这里今天呢是收到195

370
00:15:42,529 --> 00:15:45,009
上方是192~196啊

371
00:15:45,009 --> 00:15:46,330
是一个小的压力啊

372
00:15:46,330 --> 00:15:47,409
这个可看可不看

373
00:15:47,409 --> 00:15:50,099
再往上呢是201~208

374
00:15:50,099 --> 00:15:51,658
所以你从结构上来看呢

375
00:15:51,658 --> 00:15:53,499
从175往上到190

376
00:15:53,499 --> 00:15:56,019
这个区间形成了非常强的强支撑

377
00:15:56,019 --> 00:16:00,840
最主要是因为咱们在之前这横了半年时间

378
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,720
就是在175~190那个时间啊

379
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,379
所以这个强支撑是非常的明显的

380
00:16:05,779 --> 00:16:08,019
那么现在呢就判断英伟达

381
00:16:08,019 --> 00:16:11,399
实际上只要不跌破175块钱啊

382
00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:14,379
它呢技术面是没有任何走弱风险的

383
00:16:14,379 --> 00:16:16,859
应该持有待涨

384
00:16:16,859 --> 00:16:19,239
但是呢什么时候涨啊

385
00:16:19,239 --> 00:16:20,999
什么时候涨怎么涨

386
00:16:20,999 --> 00:16:24,610
这个我们还得问问这个玩期权的朋友了啊

387
00:16:24,610 --> 00:16:28,940
跟大家讲一下目前期权面临的状况啊

388
00:16:28,940 --> 00:16:34,099
额期权呢是在本周五之前呃

389
00:16:34,099 --> 00:16:40,019
主要的期权的看涨的未平仓压在200块钱啊

390
00:16:40,019 --> 00:16:41,629
这个是本周五啊

391
00:16:41,629 --> 00:16:45,309
但是如果大家去看到下个月的月期权

392
00:16:45,309 --> 00:16:47,429
就是3月份的月期权

393
00:16:47,429 --> 00:16:51,629
这个周五的这个压的未平仓的看涨期权

394
00:16:51,629 --> 00:16:52,529
这个量啊

395
00:16:52,529 --> 00:16:55,950
只有下个月的月期权的一半啊

396
00:16:55,950 --> 00:17:00,090
下个月200的看涨的未平仓量相当的大

397
00:17:00,090 --> 00:17:01,399
说明一个问题

398
00:17:01,399 --> 00:17:06,130
200这个关口是短线争夺的最大看点

399
00:17:06,130 --> 00:17:07,549
如果能过200

400
00:17:07,549 --> 00:17:09,890
后面啊差不多就是打新高

401
00:17:09,890 --> 00:17:10,509
创新高

402
00:17:10,509 --> 00:17:13,659
一马平川均值加速回归

403
00:17:13,659 --> 00:17:15,558
回到220往上去啊

404
00:17:15,558 --> 00:17:20,038
这是后面如果能够尽早的过这个200呃

405
00:17:20,038 --> 00:17:23,190
问题就是什么时候能过呢

406
00:17:23,190 --> 00:17:25,380
当然是越早越好

407
00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:28,039
本周四和周五是一个看点

408
00:17:28,039 --> 00:17:29,640
本周四的收盘

409
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,150
如果价格能接近200块钱啊

410
00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:34,309
就是贴着200

411
00:17:34,309 --> 00:17:36,980
比如199点几啊

412
00:17:36,980 --> 00:17:38,500
或者已经过了200

413
00:17:38,500 --> 00:17:43,388
那么周五的时候出现伽马挤压的

414
00:17:43,388 --> 00:17:47,308
这个继续往上推涨的概率就非常的高啊

415
00:17:47,308 --> 00:17:50,660
我们要看周四的收盘以及周五的呃

416
00:17:50,660 --> 00:17:51,619
呃这个这个收盘价

417
00:17:51,619 --> 00:17:52,839
周四的收盘价啊

418
00:17:52,839 --> 00:17:53,859
如果离得比较远

419
00:17:53,859 --> 00:17:55,180
还是在什么196啊

420
00:17:55,180 --> 00:17:56,000
97啊

421
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,240
这个呢就先暂时不期待啊

422
00:17:58,240 --> 00:17:59,920
因为那个不是一个确定性的事件

423
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:03,970
只有离得很近才能够产生这种伽马挤压好

424
00:18:03,970 --> 00:18:05,450
所以呢我们就看一看吧

425
00:18:05,450 --> 00:18:08,140
现在呢看来还是短线玩家的天下啊

426
00:18:08,140 --> 00:18:09,460
控制的牢牢的啊

427
00:18:09,460 --> 00:18:10,420
那没有办法

428
00:18:10,420 --> 00:18:13,220
目前大家一致看涨英伟达啊

429
00:18:13,220 --> 00:18:15,450
所以现在呢没有涨太多

430
00:18:15,450 --> 00:18:16,730
也没有跌太多

431
00:18:16,730 --> 00:18:18,049
现在持有的朋友呢

432
00:18:18,049 --> 00:18:21,109
那就只能够继续的持有额

433
00:18:21,109 --> 00:18:22,329
持有待涨啊

434
00:18:22,329 --> 00:18:23,170
只能这么去看

435
00:18:23,170 --> 00:18:24,369
不跌破175

436
00:18:24,369 --> 00:18:27,338
没有任何技术性风险好

437
00:18:27,338 --> 00:18:28,558
最后一个话题

438
00:18:28,558 --> 00:18:31,858
我想聊一下市场潜在的一些资金

439
00:18:31,858 --> 00:18:35,869
面对利率预期的大幅的变化

440
00:18:36,109 --> 00:18:41,859
嗯我们知道市场啊现在呢有一个趋势啊

441
00:18:41,859 --> 00:18:44,380
呃我不知道大家还记不记得

442
00:18:44,380 --> 00:18:46,059
现在市场是怎么压住的啊

443
00:18:46,059 --> 00:18:47,069
就是利率市场

444
00:18:47,069 --> 00:18:49,750
现在的市场呢是在压住

445
00:18:49,750 --> 00:18:54,019
比方说呃通胀有可能呢后面降的没那么快

446
00:18:54,019 --> 00:18:57,789
所以呢预计美联储在2026年

447
00:18:57,789 --> 00:19:00,470
那么降息两次之后啊

448
00:19:00,470 --> 00:19:01,349
我们可以看一下

449
00:19:01,349 --> 00:19:05,930
在这个这个降息预期的这个呃压压注数据上

450
00:19:05,930 --> 00:19:09,230
原来的押注呢是降息两次

451
00:19:09,230 --> 00:19:13,619
然后27年会恢复加息

452
00:19:13,619 --> 00:19:18,369
也就意味着宽松周期会在26年结束

453
00:19:18,369 --> 00:19:21,190
但是市场突然发生变化了

454
00:19:21,190 --> 00:19:24,009
这个变化在2月中旬之前还没看到

455
00:19:24,009 --> 00:19:26,849
那么在最近几天比较的明显

456
00:19:26,849 --> 00:19:30,039
在昨天星期二已经加速了

457
00:19:30,039 --> 00:19:31,259
市场在压住

458
00:19:31,259 --> 00:19:33,638
突然啊是大量的在压住

459
00:19:33,638 --> 00:19:36,558
2027年继续降息

460
00:19:36,558 --> 00:19:39,078
而不是加息

461
00:19:41,019 --> 00:19:44,019
我给大家看一下这张图表

462
00:19:44,420 --> 00:19:48,660
这张图表显示的是美联储预期政策挂钩的

463
00:19:48,660 --> 00:19:52,319
隔夜担保融资利率的关键利差

464
00:19:52,319 --> 00:19:55,660
在过去一个星期出现了深度倒挂

465
00:19:55,660 --> 00:20:01,210
表明交易员开始预期宽松周期将持续更长时间

466
00:20:01,210 --> 00:20:02,809
那么图标显示呢

467
00:20:02,809 --> 00:20:04,509
从26年的12月

468
00:20:04,509 --> 00:20:07,609
到27年12月的12个月的

469
00:20:07,609 --> 00:20:09,929
隔夜担保融资的这个利差

470
00:20:09,929 --> 00:20:12,670
在上个星期五是跌到了负值

471
00:20:12,670 --> 00:20:14,210
在这个星期二

472
00:20:14,210 --> 00:20:18,388
它的倒挂进一步加深到了八个基点

473
00:20:18,388 --> 00:20:22,489
这个就表明投资者已经从额按预期

474
00:20:22,489 --> 00:20:26,429
2026年加息转向了他转向了降息

475
00:20:26,429 --> 00:20:27,569
预期

476
00:20:27,970 --> 00:20:29,589
这个变化直到是呃

477
00:20:29,589 --> 00:20:32,319
咱们在2月中旬之前还没有看到啊

478
00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:34,839
那么那个时候呢大家还在压

479
00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:37,480
今年年底降25个基点之后啊

480
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:38,700
两次降25个基点

481
00:20:38,700 --> 00:20:41,490
然后呢在27年恢复加息

482
00:20:41,490 --> 00:20:44,990
但是呢这中间不是出了一些事一些事嘛对吧

483
00:20:44,990 --> 00:20:45,969
什么事呢

484
00:20:45,969 --> 00:20:48,088
软件股的持续暴跌

485
00:20:48,088 --> 00:20:52,449
以及围绕着人工智能对劳动力市场影响的争论

486
00:20:52,449 --> 00:20:53,769
日益激烈

487
00:20:53,769 --> 00:20:57,369
所以交易员重新评估了这个预期

488
00:20:57,369 --> 00:20:59,089
而且呢我们看到周二的时候啊

489
00:20:59,089 --> 00:21:00,289
为什么突然加速了

490
00:21:00,289 --> 00:21:02,819
因为美联储理事库克警告说

491
00:21:02,819 --> 00:21:04,700
美联储可能无法应对

492
00:21:04,700 --> 00:21:08,500
人工智能普及带来的失业率的上升

493
00:21:08,779 --> 00:21:11,339
包括我们在讲到上个周末呃

494
00:21:11,339 --> 00:21:13,740
有一家这个研究公司发布了

495
00:21:13,740 --> 00:21:17,138
失业率有可能会飙升到10%到27年啊

496
00:21:17,138 --> 00:21:20,598
所以这里边他们为什么会反转

497
00:21:20,598 --> 00:21:23,450
降息的这个逻辑呢

498
00:21:23,450 --> 00:21:25,049
我个人认为啊

499
00:21:25,049 --> 00:21:29,799
其实最近围绕着AI相关的裁员

500
00:21:29,799 --> 00:21:32,539
失业这个问题其实讨论的非常的多

501
00:21:32,539 --> 00:21:37,279
我不知道大家身边有没有切实受到AI影响

502
00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:39,700
而失去岗位的朋友啊

503
00:21:39,700 --> 00:21:41,160
或者有没有你们认识的人

504
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,420
我身边有啊

505
00:21:42,420 --> 00:21:44,099
我确实有身边有认识这样的人

506
00:21:44,099 --> 00:21:46,599
确实是因为这个问题呃

507
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:50,019
这个岗位呢被呃这个裁撤掉了好

508
00:21:50,019 --> 00:21:52,920
那么所以现在他们的逻辑是

509
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,220
如果失业率飙升怎么办

510
00:21:56,220 --> 00:21:57,619
作为美联储来讲

511
00:21:57,619 --> 00:21:58,819
它两个东西嘛

512
00:21:58,819 --> 00:22:01,319
一个是呃这个保持失业率稳定

513
00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:03,640
一个呢是维持通胀的稳定

514
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,630
如果失业人员大幅的增加

515
00:22:07,630 --> 00:22:10,650
那么财政政策就成为失业人员

516
00:22:10,650 --> 00:22:12,960
提供安全保障的一种手段

517
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,220
财政政策是什么

518
00:22:14,220 --> 00:22:15,500
就是资金支持呗

519
00:22:15,500 --> 00:22:17,039
就是放水呗

520
00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:18,759
就意味着美联储呃

521
00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:22,710
美联储要迟早要再次开启印钞机

522
00:22:22,710 --> 00:22:25,638
这就是他们的压铸逻辑

523
00:22:25,638 --> 00:22:29,210
所以呢往后相当于我们看到了一年之后

524
00:22:29,210 --> 00:22:32,690
市场交易员对于利率的一个压轴变化

525
00:22:32,690 --> 00:22:33,130
好吧

526
00:22:33,130 --> 00:22:34,670
这是一个新的消息啊

527
00:22:34,670 --> 00:22:37,230
和大家我们在本期节目里边进行一个分享

528
00:22:37,230 --> 00:22:38,869
后面如果有新的变化

529
00:22:38,869 --> 00:22:40,349
我会继续跟大家呃

530
00:22:40,349 --> 00:22:43,789
来去跟踪相关的一些数据和消息

531
00:22:43,789 --> 00:22:44,490
好

532
00:22:44,490 --> 00:22:45,950
这个呢就是今天啊带给大家

533
00:22:45,950 --> 00:22:48,910
关于这个市场内容的一些更新和解读啊

534
00:22:48,910 --> 00:22:50,750
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

535
00:22:50,750 --> 00:22:54,960
希望大家还是能够多多的帮忙点赞评论转发啊

536
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:55,740
谢谢大家好

537
00:22:55,740 --> 00:22:56,460
我们今天到这儿

538
00:22:56,460 --> 00:23:00,000
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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