空费半吓出屎来！NaNa说美股(2026.06.04)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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由于博通财报后大跌

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半导体呢集体回吐

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但是场内资金并没有集体撤退哈

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而是轮动抛去了周期股和防御性板块

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那边狂拉

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抵消了半导体的回调

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嗯到了下半场

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一些资金又跑回科技股抄底

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因此美股大盘呢整体并没有受到太大的影响

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是大股指收势表现不一

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道指大幅收涨1.73%

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纳指收盘的时候较盘出的疲软态势有了显著的改善

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指微幅收跌0.09%

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标普500收涨0.41%

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此前资金极度抱团

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半导体存储啦

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光通信啊

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AI服务器等等

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个个都涨得惊天动地的

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其他大多数板块呢都只能做冷板凳

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眼巴巴地瞧着今天部分资金从半导体流出之后

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跑去那些落后的板块

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反而让美股整体市场的宽度改善了

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今天上涨的股票数量要远多于下跌的数量

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因此呢这是一个板块轮动的日子哈

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并不是集体出逃的日子

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投资者仍继续保持逢低买入的习惯

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半导体的极端抱团行情啊

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出现了一些裂缝嗯

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市场对它的痛点呢在两处

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一是公司Q3AI半导体收入指引160亿美元

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不及预期的170亿美元

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本财年AI芯片销售额指引560亿美元

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也低于预期均值的576亿美元

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二呢是陈老板在电话会议上承认

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博通最重要的大客户

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谷歌正在推进供应商多元化

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以降低对单一芯片巨头的依赖

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联发科迈威尔科技可能都在摩拳擦掌的想要分走蛋糕

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市场担忧博通在谷歌TPU项目中市场份额流失

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最最主要的原因其实并非财报本身了

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而是博通的股价连续大涨之后呢

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市场对博通的预期已经拉到极高

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若是业绩只略高于一致预期

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都有可能触发获利了结

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更何况嗯AI相关的收入指引还低于预期呢

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其实并不是说市场在质疑普通的AI业务是否增长

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而是在重新定价

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就是将此前过于乐观

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过于激进的一些高预期的往回拉一些

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同时也给股价挤挤泡沫

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消化估值压力

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所以这又是一场教科书级别的买预期卖

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事实就和英伟达财报后的股价表现同一个尿性

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股价目前呢处于所有短期均线下方

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回到了此前这个横盘整理区间下方

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50日均线是中期关键支撑哈

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除非趋势彻底走坏

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否则的话呢股价就可能在50日均线上方横盘震荡消化抛压

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跌的最凶的不是博通

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反而是光通信概念股CIEN股价今天早盘的时候呃

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跌超20%

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盘中甚至一度跌穿了50日均线

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这是自去年7月以来首次跌破这条中期均线哈

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不过呢盘中好歹拉上去了

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公司也是刚刚发布了财报

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Q2营收15.7亿美元

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同比增长了40%

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调整后每股收益1.64美元

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同比激增290%

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而且公司还上调了全年营收指引嗯

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财报大好

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但是股价照样下跌

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因为与博通一样

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就是业绩虽然很好

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可是呢预期拉太高太满了嗯

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但是CIEN跌这么多

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好歹还可以理解的哈

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毕竟它股价过去12个月翻了六七倍呀

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前几天黄仁勋带货催那个官通信

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还有迈威尔科技

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所以呢就让这些股票在财报前又大涨了一下

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故意拉高财报后获利了结也算是正常嗯

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公司季度营收才15.7亿美元

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它的市值都快达到千亿美元了

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只看营收增速40%

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数据其实也没有多么让人惊艳

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你看像英伟达那么大的体量呢

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人家营收增速都超过它

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泡沫太大了

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说白了华尔街就是找个借口来兑现部分利润而已

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博通跌了之后

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英伟达这边开心死

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股价今天反弹

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果然同行是冤家嗯

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今天几个旧巨头其实也是护盘的主力了

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存储龙头美光科技股价呢也从历史高位回落

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KD破轮5日均线

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如今存储是AI热潮的风向标

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供应极其紧缺

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下游的需求巨大

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行业涨价潮更是汹涌

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这些基本面因素都没有改变哈

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所以就算它的股价短线回调也跌不了太多

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能不能回踩月均线的布衣店

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盲目看空风险很大哈

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耐心等待回调后

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这个逢低做多的机会仍然是最合适的

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暂时在英伟达

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台积电等几位老大哥们的护盘之下呢

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拉起来了

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尾盘跌幅收窄到2.15%啊

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真的太硬了哈

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这个硬件板块的获利盘和高估值风险如今很高了

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但是呢AI硬件叙事只有在几个科技巨头

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比如像meta微软之类的超级大厂

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释放缩减或者放缓AI资本支出的信号

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行情才会真正结束

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但是在entropick OpenAI这俩成功IPO上市之前

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科技巨头们是不可能率先收手的啦

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因为这背后是极其现实的切身利益捆绑啊

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作为这两家公司的核心金主与战略盟友

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这个时候巨头若宣布放缓资本支出

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戳破AI泡沫

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那就等同于在上市前夕掀翻自己的财富桌子嘛

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所以即使这个比如小米塔实在是撑不住

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要放缓资本支出

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那也得等到年底

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换句话说哈

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在unsopk OpenAI他俩上市之前

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大家其实不用太担心AI泡沫破裂这个事情

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美债呢今天获得了买盘支撑

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推动10年期盘收益率回落

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尽管伊朗导弹和无人机昨天攻击了美军基地和科威特机场

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真主党今天还拒绝了美国斡旋的以礼停火协议

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但是川普仍对伊朗问题释放了耐心信号

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就暗示不愿重新卷入更广泛的战争

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除非伊朗杀害美军士兵

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否则的话就不会重启战火

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嗯川普呢拒绝了伊朗最新提出的谅解备忘录草案

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坚持要求更实质性的让步

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同时又表示不急于达成协议

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这个市场将川普的表态解读为就是有意维持当下这种极限施压策略

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通过战略模糊和这个引体引导和这个媒体引导

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来迫使伊朗降低地区冲突

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同时呢继续实施经济封锁

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目前美国政府哈似乎在接受有限协议与继续施压之间

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保持最大的灵活性

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既不承诺外交解决哈

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也没有转向新一轮冲突

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呃

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所以大家就觉得川普一会说这个话

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一会儿说那个话反反复复的

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其实这都是他的策略呃

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这也导致10年期美债收益率在4.5%关口附近犹豫不决

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不知道这个该往哪边走

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WTI原油期货今天应声回落

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昨天美国国会投票限制了川普的战争权利

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生产的立即就将此解读为哎

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美伊冲突全面升级的风险解除了哈总统不能够呃掀起大战争了

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导致原有积累的战争风险溢价再次快速消退

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实际上美国国会这一场投票象征意义要远大于实质

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因为川普本人的核心策略就不是打一场代价高昂的全面这个地面战争

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这一点一旦也早就看出来了

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大家都看出来了

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双方现在边打边谈

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都是为了在谈判桌上捞取更多筹码而进行的极限施压

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筹码要够

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那戏就得演足

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无论是伊朗还是川普都是一样

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摩根大通也在最新的研报中乐观地宣称

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全球石油库存消耗的加速将会最终迫使呃霍尔木兹海峡重新开放

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无论以什么方式

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并且呢预计海峡可能会在6月内就这个月恢复通航

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他这话说的就好像伊朗革命卫队是小摩的编外

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小弟会听从华尔街的库存报告指挥一样

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哈标普500指数今天低开后并没有引发恐慌

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盘中反而一路上行

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转涨被拉回到7600点这里的磁铁位置

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昨天视频里我们说过

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哈市场当下正干巴环境

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这个限制了指数大幅下跌的空间呃

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做市商的逆向对冲机制充当了这个市场的减震器

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这种磁铁效应呢在6月18号期权集中结算到来之前会持续有效

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要等6月18号才会松绑

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放开这个市场的波动

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但是随后就获得了强劲买盘的支撑

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并且一度转涨

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指数的反弹具有极强的技术必然性哈

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今天开盘下砸呢就刚好打到核心波段生命线这条月均线附近

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作为本轮AI与大科技强扭的多头信仰底线

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技术买盘与量化算法呢在这个地方就形成了极强的共振支撑

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只要月线这里不放量被跌破

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那么科技股的强趋势逻辑就没有证伪

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多头就不会轻易交出筹码

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作为市场风险情绪最最敏感的温度

199
00:11:07,328 --> 00:11:10,440
计效盘古1TFIWM今天表现亮眼

200
00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,629
涨幅就仅次于传统的反手大户倒置

201
00:11:14,629 --> 00:11:17,269
一举收复了昨天的全部失地

202
00:11:17,269 --> 00:11:19,629
IWM的满血复活

203
00:11:19,629 --> 00:11:21,269
也释放了一个重要信号

204
00:11:21,269 --> 00:11:24,990
就是场内资金并没有恐慌出逃这个市场

205
00:11:24,990 --> 00:11:28,210
而是继续留在场内进行板块轮动

206
00:11:28,210 --> 00:11:32,710
当大科技和AI硬件因为前期涨幅过大

207
00:11:32,710 --> 00:11:38,089
流动性被SPACEX上市预期抽血而陷入疲软的时候

208
00:11:38,089 --> 00:11:44,809
避险和套现资金立刻流入估值更有性价比的小盘股和价值股

209
00:11:44,809 --> 00:11:48,159
这种产内下这个反转呃

210
00:11:48,159 --> 00:11:52,500
腾挪的格局呢就表明了市场的健康度尚可哈

211
00:11:52,500 --> 00:11:55,509
并没有触发这个系统性风险

212
00:11:55,509 --> 00:12:01,740
普通的这个财报大跌并没有戳破这个AI的这个泡沫呃

213
00:12:01,740 --> 00:12:07,460
波动率指数VIX呢继续在十五十六的历史低位区间懒散的运行

214
00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:10,240
对冲需求并没有出现井喷哈

215
00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,879
此时的瓶颈呢并不意味着说真的就可以高枕无忧啦

216
00:12:14,879 --> 00:12:18,570
只是现在扣动扳机的节点还没有到

217
00:12:18,570 --> 00:12:20,230
因为资金都在等

218
00:12:20,230 --> 00:12:21,210
这个月中

219
00:12:21,210 --> 00:12:27,149
就是6月18号前后哈宏观催化剂以及流动性拐点

220
00:12:27,149 --> 00:12:29,590
比如这个月中旬的呃

221
00:12:29,590 --> 00:12:30,940
美联储会议

222
00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:32,980
在接下来的一两周内

223
00:12:32,980 --> 00:12:36,740
市场大概率呢将会维持这种大盘震荡

224
00:12:44,279 --> 00:12:45,159
还好吓人啊

225
00:12:45,159 --> 00:12:47,240
不知道得有多少个杠杆

226
00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:48,980
多头仓位爆仓了

227
00:12:48,980 --> 00:12:52,519
根据预测市场平台cash最新数据

228
00:12:52,519 --> 00:12:56,889
对于比特币今年跌破6万美元的压注高达84%

229
00:12:56,889 --> 00:13:00,269
跌破5万美元的押注也有59%

230
00:13:00,269 --> 00:13:06,379
对比特币在未来数月重返10万美元的信心呢也明显下降了

231
00:13:06,379 --> 00:13:10,259
高企数据显示压住的概率就只有23%

232
00:13:10,259 --> 00:13:13,460
远低于5月初接近50%的水平

233
00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:19,299
全球最大的公开比特币持有者就是那个MSTR的老板MICHAELC罗

234
00:13:19,299 --> 00:13:23,179
他说导致币圈走熊的罪魁祸首就是AI

235
00:13:23,179 --> 00:13:27,259
因为呢高风险资金全都被AI给吸走了

236
00:13:27,259 --> 00:13:33,169
他称过去六个月有4000亿美元涌向AI基础设施

237
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:35,669
而自今年5月14号以来

238
00:13:35,669 --> 00:13:39,509
比特币ETF呢则录得约40亿美元的净流出

239
00:13:39,509 --> 00:13:45,750
C罗就把币圈熊市解释为一场从比特币轮动到AI的资金迁途

240
00:13:45,750 --> 00:13:52,799
而并非比特币基本面恶化呃他说就是这个AI的叙事更宏大

241
00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:55,039
更能够承诺超额收益

242
00:13:55,039 --> 00:13:58,860
所以才暂时占据了流动性的上风

243
00:13:58,860 --> 00:14:05,789
但与此同时哈嗯很多比特币相关企业也在主动加入这场AI盛宴

244
00:14:05,789 --> 00:14:10,309
像比特币矿奇泰拉wolf cpf i r e n等等

245
00:14:10,309 --> 00:14:13,860
他们全都摇身一变成为AI的电力房东

246
00:14:13,860 --> 00:14:19,600
他们手里的电力与场地资源被视为AI基础设施的一部分

247
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,629
关键的问题在于哈

248
00:14:21,629 --> 00:14:24,929
呃这个究竟是比特币的没落呢

249
00:14:24,929 --> 00:14:29,629
还是仅仅以此典型的周期性偏好切换而已

250
00:14:29,629 --> 00:14:31,309
C罗给出的答案是后者

251
00:14:31,309 --> 00:14:35,370
他坚持认为比特币本身并没有出现根本性的问题

252
00:14:35,370 --> 00:14:39,570
只是被短期的AI狂热给边缘化了而已

253
00:14:39,570 --> 00:14:40,850
等风口回来之后

254
00:14:40,850 --> 00:14:43,629
比特币还可以再次重启牛市

255
00:14:43,629 --> 00:14:44,309
当然了

256
00:14:44,309 --> 00:14:45,389
站在他的立场

257
00:14:45,389 --> 00:14:46,649
他肯定会这么说嘛

258
00:14:46,649 --> 00:14:49,210
总不能说加密货币彻底玩完了

259
00:14:49,210 --> 00:14:51,669
然后就让自己公司破产对吧

260
00:14:51,669 --> 00:14:53,009
其他个股方面

261
00:14:53,009 --> 00:14:55,870
医疗保险股也是今天护盘的主力

262
00:14:55,870 --> 00:14:59,000
哈哈姆纳股价今天呢大涨了6.8%

263
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,340
从3月谷底以来已经翻倍了

264
00:15:01,340 --> 00:15:03,980
周K正来到重要阻力

265
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:05,620
200周均线附近

266
00:15:05,620 --> 00:15:07,500
能不能够成功突破

267
00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:08,690
并且站稳

268
00:15:08,690 --> 00:15:12,440
这是股价中短期趋势的关键

269
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,120
突破之后站稳了

270
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,019
那就意味着中期趋势重新转多

271
00:15:17,019 --> 00:15:19,620
若是掉头再次回落哈

272
00:15:19,620 --> 00:15:22,818
那这一轮涨势可能就暂时见顶了

273
00:15:22,818 --> 00:15:23,739
联合健康

274
00:15:23,739 --> 00:15:26,259
因为内去股价今天也涨了5.16%

275
00:15:26,259 --> 00:15:30,639
周线级别呢也逐渐接近上方重要阻力位了

276
00:15:30,639 --> 00:15:34,100
沃尔玛通常会在市场动荡的时候上涨

277
00:15:37,029 --> 00:15:39,629
沃尔玛的股价就蹭蹭蹭涨了2.5%

278
00:15:39,629 --> 00:15:42,750
但是呢随着风险情绪改善

279
00:15:42,750 --> 00:15:45,110
资金又跑回去抄底科技股

280
00:15:45,110 --> 00:15:47,090
沃尔玛的股价也随之回落

281
00:15:47,090 --> 00:15:49,889
持有这只股票就是要耐心啦

282
00:15:49,889 --> 00:15:54,389
防御股嘛就要等这个市场动荡的时候才会涨

283
00:15:54,389 --> 00:15:58,568
买它就好像是给科技股仓位做对冲哈

284
00:15:58,568 --> 00:16:03,188
芯片设计公司arm如今是美股市场中最贵的股票之一

285
00:16:03,188 --> 00:16:06,870
就仅次于嗯特斯拉和POLUNTEER

286
00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:08,889
自2023年IPO以来

287
00:16:08,889 --> 00:16:12,289
arm其实就一直都是一支相对昂贵的股票哈

288
00:16:12,289 --> 00:16:15,570
但是过去几周对股价的疯狂飙升呢

289
00:16:15,570 --> 00:16:16,730
几乎让它翻倍

290
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:19,289
把估值也给推升到了行见的高位

291
00:16:19,289 --> 00:16:20,529
今年年初以来

292
00:16:20,529 --> 00:16:23,200
股价已经累计涨了260%

293
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:28,059
推动因素是市场看好它首次自研芯片的计划

294
00:16:28,059 --> 00:16:30,220
在标普500指数成分股中

295
00:16:30,220 --> 00:16:32,929
他的表现就仅差于两家公司

296
00:16:32,929 --> 00:16:36,809
即使是在表现最强劲的废瓣指数成分股中

297
00:16:36,809 --> 00:16:38,440
arm也是位列第二

298
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,779
公司的基本面非常的强劲

299
00:16:40,779 --> 00:16:44,149
但是当前它的估值是一项关键风险

300
00:16:44,149 --> 00:16:50,568
因为现在这个股价位置相当于就是把2030年的前景都给算进去了

301
00:16:50,568 --> 00:16:53,089
今天受到博通大跌的影响

302
00:16:53,089 --> 00:16:55,168
拖累了更广泛的AI交易

303
00:16:58,659 --> 00:17:03,019
但随即就跟随着整个半导体板块回升了哈

304
00:17:03,019 --> 00:17:05,868
尾盘的跌幅收窄到4.47%

305
00:17:05,868 --> 00:17:09,868
网络安全股COSTRIKE股价日内也是低开高走

306
00:17:09,868 --> 00:17:14,068
从下跌10%收窄到跌3.8%

307
00:17:14,068 --> 00:17:16,808
公司CEO在财报电话会议上表示

308
00:17:16,808 --> 00:17:19,568
受人工智能技术迭代推动

309
00:17:19,568 --> 00:17:22,709
网络攻防两端同步提速

310
00:17:22,709 --> 00:17:23,528
本季度

311
00:17:23,528 --> 00:17:26,509
网络安全行业正式迎来了行业拐点

312
00:17:26,509 --> 00:17:30,638
他提到ONTOPEKA与OpenAI推出的新一代大模型呢

313
00:17:30,638 --> 00:17:35,849
能够以远快于以往的速度识别各类软件漏洞

314
00:17:35,849 --> 00:17:39,039
并且串联利用AI技术高速迭代

315
00:17:39,039 --> 00:17:44,500
就倒逼这些企业们的配置专业化网络安全防护方案

316
00:17:44,500 --> 00:17:50,990
COSER已经参与上述两家企业最新AI产品的呃抢先试用项目了

317
00:17:50,990 --> 00:17:54,250
金融股在等待周五非农数据的同时

318
00:17:54,250 --> 00:17:58,079
对利率上行环境表现出了一些明显的犹豫

319
00:17:58,079 --> 00:18:00,000
SOFI股价近日回落后

320
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,859
暂时在50日均线附近企稳

321
00:18:02,859 --> 00:18:05,480
罗宾who的还是继续看好哈

322
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,519
公司宣布他的预测市场已经上线世界杯交易咯

323
00:18:09,519 --> 00:18:15,009
股价今天呃早盘的时候回落到10日均线后就强势反弹

324
00:18:15,009 --> 00:18:17,289
暂时处于5日均线下方

325
00:18:17,289 --> 00:18:18,230
但是问题不大

326
00:18:18,230 --> 00:18:20,630
逢低买入仍是最好的策略哈

327
00:18:20,630 --> 00:18:25,619
量子计算新股QNT今天呢IPO首日呃

328
00:18:25,619 --> 00:18:27,740
股价收涨0.63%

329
00:18:27,740 --> 00:18:29,200
别看这个涨幅不大

330
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,430
但是公司在IPO之前一再的提高定价

331
00:18:32,430 --> 00:18:35,789
而且今天呢呃科技股也有点小动荡

332
00:18:35,789 --> 00:18:39,339
所以它的股价能够不收跌就已经算是成功了

333
00:18:39,339 --> 00:18:42,279
瑜伽裤大佬lu lemon盘后公布财报

334
00:18:42,279 --> 00:18:46,019
北美业务几乎没有出现任何改善迹象

335
00:18:46,019 --> 00:18:49,359
而且公司还下调了全年营收与利润预期

336
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,759
所以导致股价盘后暴跌

337
00:18:51,759 --> 00:18:54,960
嗯这种股票基本上没什么值得看的了

338
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,460
像这种鞋类啦

339
00:18:56,460 --> 00:18:58,259
服装衣库类的哈

340
00:18:58,259 --> 00:19:01,019
在川普这个关税政策之下

341
00:19:01,019 --> 00:19:03,159
没有他们的出头之日行

342
00:19:03,159 --> 00:19:04,778
今天我们就说到这里

343
00:19:04,778 --> 00:19:07,609
那明天周五有非农报告哈

344
00:19:07,609 --> 00:19:10,130
嗯估计也不会有什么大意外

345
00:19:10,130 --> 00:19:11,980
那行咱们明天见拜拜

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